First thoughts: Running out the clock?
Posted: Wednesday, March 19, 2008 9:19 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Running out the clock? It appears the Michigan re-vote legislation is hanging by a thread. Clinton is traveling to the state today to try and bring more attention to the fact that it isn't her campaign that is standing in the way of re-vote. Her desire to make this case is obvious: Clinton needs these do-over contests in Florida and Michigan -- and needs to win them by big margins -- to convince superdelegates that she should be the nominee. The question is: Will primary voters in other states care about this issue? (Or will they see this as pure politics, given the fact that Clinton never spoke up about Michigan and Florida until right before the South Carolina primary?) The Obama campaign appears to be gambling that they won't. After all, no matter how long you’ve served in the Senate, you know this one truism about American politics: It’s always easier to do nothing. This is good politics for Clinton if there is a re-vote or if she's the nominee, because while Florida is a battleground in the general, Dems have a path to 270 electoral votes without it. Michigan, on the other hand, is an absolute electoral vote necessisity for the Dems. This is TRULY the big Obama gamble; killing the Michigan revote may expedite his path to the Dem nomination, but he's got real work to do if he’s the nominee. By the way, by going to Michigan today, isn't Clinton sending the message that without a re-vote, her chances at the nomination are much more remote?
*** The known and unknown about Obama’s speech: The speech on race that Obama gave yesterday has drawn rave reviews. It was a bold and daring speech. Could anyone else have discussed both the injustice of slavery and white fears of busing? As we predicted, he hit a homerun with the media elite; in fact it was batting practice -- with the political world watching. It's hard to find an editorial board in the country that didn't praise him for this speech. But as others including NBC’s Tim Russert and MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough have pointed out, its political impact is unknown. Will it play as well in Scranton and Asheville as it played in DC? What was interesting was the reaction on the right. The thought leaders on the right seemed to praise the speech, while its political leaders clearly see gain in keeping the Wright story alive (see Newt Gingrich's comments). While McCain may not be comfortable using the race card in the general against Obama, plenty of others may see the electoral map pragmatism in it. In fact, one thing may have become clear yesterday, regardless of how well received Obama's speech was: His electoral map has probably shrunk. His path to 270 will be different than Clinton's, but it will be just as much of a tightrope. Obama may trade Ohio for Virginia and Colorado, he won't be simply adding to the 2000/2004 Dem map.
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on Barack Obama's racial divide speech and takes a look at Hillary Clinton's search for a Michigan revote.
*** A few other race thoughts: Yesterday presented an opportunity for Obama to audition in front of millions of Americans responding to one of the nation’s trickiest topics. And here’s a question these voters may be asking themselves: After the last eight years, which person -- Clinton, McCain, Obama -- do they want to see on their TV sets for the next four to eight years? On that test, Obama probably scored very high marks. Neither Clinton nor McCain appear to have an ability to give that great speech; it's never been their strong suit. But it's not as if the current occupant got to the White House by being a great orator. One other unintended consequence of Obama’s speech: If he’s elected president, does this mean Democrats can no longer accuse the religious right of being too political? One thing the American public is learning is that the black churches are just as political as the Christian conservatives.
*** Beyond Pennsylvania: On this fifth anniversary of the beginning of the Iraq war, Obama gives yet another big speech today -- this one in Fayetteville, NC on the topic of Iraq. Indeed, Obama's schedule this week includes travel in three states, none of which are Pennsylvania. He's in North Carolina today (May 6 primary), West Virginia tomorrow (May 13 primary) and Oregon on Friday (May 20 mail-in primary, with ballots mailed to voters as early as May 2). Of course, this is central to his path to the nomination: While Clinton is expected to do well in Pennsylvania (and Kentucky and West Virginia, too), Obama has the opportunity to offset those losses in other contests, allowing him to hold on to his 100-plus lead in pledged delegates. Clinton's schedule is also now showing diversity from Pennsylvania with West Virginia and Indiana on the docket. Bottom line: Both campaigns are sending the message that Pennsylvania, while important, is not the new Iowa. If anything, the next Iowa may very well be Indiana.
*** McCain’s misstep: For those who have focused on every word of the Jeremiah Wright controversy or who have paid attention to every nuance in the back-and-forth over re-dos for Florida and Michigan, you might have forgotten that McCain has been overseas in the Middle East on a CODEL with two of his closest friends in the Senate. And yesterday, the presumptive GOP nominee -- who has staked much of his candidacy on his support for and knowledge of the Iraq war -- made a pretty significant misstep: He stated several times that Iran (a Shiite country) was helping Al Qaeda (a Sunni organization), which obviously is incorrect. After friend Joe Lieberman, who is accompanying the Arizona senator, whispered into his ear, McCain corrected himself. As we asked earlier, what would have been the reaction if Obama or Clinton had made this mistake? (Or what would have been the reaction if either of them, after clinching the Dem nomination, had taken a taxpayer-funded trip to the Middle East that seems more political than senatorial?) One of the ironies of this presidential contest is that despite his high profile, McCain’s words, actions, and past haven’t received the scrutiny that a presumptive nominee usually gets.
*** Is the worm turning? Earlier this week, we noted that the Clinton campaign hadn’t publicly announced the support of a new superdelegate since February 7 -- and that since Super Tuesday, Clinton had lost seven supers (including Eliot Spitzer) while Obama had gained 47. But that now has changed. Per NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones, Iraq war critic Rep. Jack Murtha of Pennsylvania is now backing Clinton. It’s a BIG pick up. "Her experience and careful consideration of these issues convinced me that she is best qualified to lead our nation and to bring credibility back to the White House," he said in a statement. In addition, we learned through the Charleston Gazette that DNC Committeeman Pat Maroney is supporting Clinton, and Maroney previously wasn’t on our list. So Clinton picks up two new superdelegates, which changes our superdelegate count to Clinton 255, Obama 217 and our overall count to Obama 1,625, Clinton 1,506.
*** A significant hire: Speaking of the Clinton camp, here is some news we reported last night, but which bears repeating: The campaign has hired Democratic pollster Geoff Garin. The question becomes, of course: How does this impact pollster and chief strategist Mark Penn? Some in the campaign have been arguing for months that the chief strategist shouldn't be polling his own message ideas. Garin, one of the most respected Dem pollsters in the country, is someone who will have instant credibility inside the campaign and -- more importantly -- with worried anti-Penn donors. Above all, Garin brings an expertise in many of the key states where Clinton needs big victories, including Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana. In fact, there are very few Democrats who win in Indiana without the help of Garin. By the way, news of Garin's hire has warmed the hearts of quite a few Clinton supporters, at least the ones we've heard from.
*** Confronting the big issue: So President Bush -- like Obama today and Clinton on Monday -- is giving a major speech marking the Iraq war anniversary. Of course, such a speech is totally appropriate. But Bush still hasn't addressed the nation on the current economic angst that is gripping the country.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere today, Clinton is in West Virginia, where she has a discussion with veterans in Huntington and then holds a town hall in Charleston; McCain remains overseas; Obama holds a town hall in Charlotte, NC after his Iraq speech; and Bill Clinton spends his day in Pennsylvania.
Countdown to Pennsylvania: 34 days
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 48 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 230 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 307 days
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