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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Looking ahead: Clinton still up in PA

Posted: Thursday, March 20, 2008 9:09 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

Clinton’s lead keeps growing. A new Philadelphia Daily News/Franklin & Marshall poll has Clinton leading by 16 points, 51% to 35% among likely voters. The new poll results come from Hillary “aggressively courting votes” in the state, says poll director G. Terry Madonna. "She's been in every region of the state, speaking to large and enthusiastic crowds, and Obama has really not put on a full-court press here," Madonna said. 
 
Notes NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger: The poll was taken at a low point for Obama, amid the Wright controversy and before his well-received speech. But it shows Obama losing supporters he had a month ago, and finds that about one in five of each candidate’s backers said they would vote for McCain if the other person won the Democratic nomination.
 
Sen. Bob Casey is staying out of the Democratic race. Two theories have emerged as to why.

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Comments

Boy, way to leave us hanging...LOL (on your ending).

I am not surprised by this...look at all the pundits saying blue collar PA will NEVER vote for Obama.  With so many people telling people what to think...

People are reacting to the Pastor videos (played continuously), big surprise.  People haven't had time to see or digest the speech.  The demographics tend to work for her.  Obama still hasn't spent much time in the State.

The polls in the next few weeks may matter somewhat...what really matters is how people vote in the primary.  I think the race will be closer than people think although PA was always an uphill struggle for Obama.

You (the media) gave Hillary the whole month of Feb. to be behind but not out.  You owe Obama the same courtesy.

Obama (overall the best choice for Dems in the Fall) 08
Call me with poll numbers in a month, a week after "the most transparent politician in America" has revelaed her tax returns (ha) and Obama has been campaigning there a month.
Wa THIS Preparation for Pennsylvania ?
Was this meant to 'shake' Obama ?



Can there be any doubt ?
Can there be any argument ?

The Clintons have re-introduced race-baiting into the campaign
I guess the media hasn’t noticed

First, there was the picture of Obama in a Somali costume
That lasted a few news cycles

Then, there was PA Gov. Ed Rendell who jsut happened to say many people wouldn’t vote for a black man.
Good for a news cycle

Then, the case of Geraldine Ferraro
Obama wouldn;t be here if he was white or a woman
That dominated the news cycle for a few days
Was she being stubborn by repeating her claims and demanding an apology ?
Or was she asked to keep the controversy alive
For a week or two

Now, Rev Wright’s videos appera
Where did THEY come from ?
Does anyone remember Bob Novack saying the Clintons told him they had SOMETHING on Obama ?


These aren’t coincidences
They aren’t ‘accidents’
They are planned, choreographed  ‘race-baiting’ by the Clinton campaign
Charming, isn’t it ?

Does anyone remember the constant whining by the Clintons about the press giving Obama a ;free pass’ ?

Now, Bill is complaining he was ‘mugged’ about race in SC

It’s NOT the Republicans who are guilty of race baiting...... It’s the Clintons
It’s planned
It’s calculated
It’s cold-blooded, unethical and soulless

Is there any depths that they won’t sink to ?

Is THAT the politician you want in the White House for the next four years ?

Can you possibly support a candidate/candidates who sunk this low ?

Write your Democratic office holder and ask, no DEMAND they stand up to this nonsense

The first viable African-American candidate for President
An honest and decent man

AND HILLARY IS RACE-BAITING HIM !!
The latest Gallup poll shows Clinton with a 47 to 42 lead over Obama up from a statistical tie on march 13.
I'm sure at times Senator Obama, especially early in his career, has had to maneuver as a traditional politician, in order to build a base. I won't hold that against him.

How sad would it be if we, as a country, would reject the most hopeful, potentially great president in generations, simply because his pastor has serious issues to work out?

I'm a 48 yr old white male from MI. I have some college and earn around 50k yr. I am not naive and do not drink kool-aid. Please don't insult my intelligence by accusing me of being brain washed. I can assure you, I am not.

I think MI should not have a re-vote. After Senator Obama has secured the nomination, I'm certain a reasonable solution to seating MI and FL delegates will be reached. You can not change the rules once the contest has begun. PERIOD

I do not hate Hillary or Bill. I try not to hate anyone. I could not bear it if she were to steal the nomination and if she were to pull it off I would vote for someone else.

We as a country have a once in a lifetime opportunity to take this great country, that I served honorably, to a place we could only dream of. Please give this man a chance. If history teaches us anything, Hill or McCain will be more of the same.

I appreciate all of the intelligent opinions here but not the thoughtless words of hate and intolerance.

Obama/Webb 08'
Go Hillary...
Put Obama out of the Democrats misery...
I heard it before Obama will ruin the Democrats chance of getting the White House back.
It's a long way to April 22.  Obama has a challenge with PA, however, he has closed the gap before and will do so in PA. The Clinton campaign runs on "spin cycle". They're behind but say they're ahead. You know there is a difference in being a winner (Obama) and being a whiner (Clinton) ....the difference is an
"H" and an "N" ....which in my mind stands for:
"H"illary...."N"o-way! I don't know why but my comments don't seem to get posted, while dribble mouth Patty D gets all kinds of postings....what's with that?
The polling is not much of a difference.  Last week before the Wright thing, HRC was 19 points up.
I would say that we are not going to know much for a couple weeks.
But, I think the news is reading too much into the polls right now when things are unsettled.
But, msnbc keeps making it sound like Obama is collapsing.  I would hope msnbc would have been more responsible in their reporting the polling. And this is after C. Todd was on explaining this very thing earlier.
Iowan why not check the poll numbers Gallup numbers today.
Pennsylvania is a certain victory for Hillary.  SO WHAT?  Obama doesn't need Pennsylvania ...
She'll win PA, outside of the cities, because they're all a bunch of ignorant Appalachian rubes, who'd vote for a white woman before they'd vote for a black man.
http://twocanpete.blogspot.com/
On to the next news cycle folks, the Clinton campaign's timing is off again. They're just to old to get on with the internet. Heck, they probably have to ask a campaign staffer's kid to send the good stuff to Drudge.
We have a long way to go before the voting in PA.  We should not focus on the poles right now.  We all know the poles don't always mean anything plus Obama always seems to catch up when the voters have a chance to see him.  I believe his speech will carry him a long way.  I have noticed the dialog in the last couple of days changing, people are discussing issues that they never have before.  

Obama 08
She'll win PA, outside of the cities, because they're all a bunch of ignorant Appalachian rubes, who'd vote for a white woman before they'd vote for a black man.
class Warrior, D.C. (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 9:52 AM)

Spoken with a lot of class. Very intelligent.

Morning Joe is at it again. He just showed two polls back to back - One was a head to head - Clinton vs. McCain (she is ahead, Joe is Giddy) and the other was AMONG INDEPENDENTS - showing Obama substantially behind McCain (again, Joe is Giddy)

This is Apples and Oranges. Now, I don't know what the poll shows with Obama and McCain head to head - but he totally misrepresented the numbers so that he could glower about how Obama's numbers are slipping.  The more the news talks about this - the more his numbers will slip - sad commentary.

I just erased Morning Joe and took it off my DVR record schedule, I'm done.
PA IS GOING TO CRACK THIS ELECTION WIDE OPEN FOR SEN. CLINTON as SHE HAS A HUGE.... HUGE FOLLOWING HERE !!

OBAMA IS DONE !
I've always said I am a life long Dem and I would vote for whoever was nominated.  If Obama is the Nom I will not vote for him in the General Election.period.  And everyone I know friends, relatives, people I work with etc.  Will not vote foe him either.
I just erased Morning Joe and took it off my DVR record schedule, I'm done.
Mel (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 10:03 AM)

Speaking of Morning Joe, did anyone else see Brzezenski on the show this morning? He had a great line talking about Clinton's claim of experience:

"She says she has been to over 80 countries on trips, well my travel agent has been to 150 countries."
Pa Voter
*************

Too little, too late.

Everyone expects Hillary to win, this is hardly a coup.
Since I live in PA and a rural part at that, I know for a fact there are many people who would not vote for Senator Clinton period, Class warrior you are wrong on this point and calling Pennsylvanians names show you as class-less.
She will win in the big cities not in the rural parts of PA.
But then if you posted these facts you would have no one to attack. Stop blaming blue collar workers for their choice, they are looking for an issue oriented
candidate.
Everytime Senator Obama does not win a state you and others start screaming rascism, Ohio and now Pennsylvania, so, if this contest is not about race, why do you and others continue to bring it up?
There are rascists in every state of the union, since you live in D.C. you will not have to go far to find some, probably on your own street.
Should I lump you in with them? No, I cannot in good conscious do that because that is what rascists do, lump people into one group.
What makes you think you are different than those who hate people because of the color of their skin?
Obama will be tossed away by, just like Giuliani.  I remember when all the republicans said Giuliani had the nomination bagged.  The fact is that Obama was a populist hand-grenade to destroy Clinton.  Now that everyone knows the economy is the issue, you'll see that Clinton's clear economic policies will wipe Obama's populist rhetoric off the political map.  Sorry Obama supporters, you support a candidate that says nothing about the economic issues facing everyone, today.
PA will probably go to Hillary. This is Ed Rendell's state and his people are not going to allow a black man to win. Right Ed? You should know, you told them that.
Plus, what the heck is Ickes doing even talking about Florida and Michigan. He is one of the idiots that disenfranchised them. Now he thinks they should be seated. Hillary's campaign people just continue to talk out of both sides of their mouths.
Hillary - no character, no honor, no integrity. You should run for Queen of Iraq. Just continue on with your Nixonian campaign and steal (not win) the nomination and you will drive all of the independents and young Democrats over to the Republicans.
here here pa voter
Put our girl in the White House...
Maybe some of you Obamacans can help me understand how Hillary is stealing the race from Obama who gave him the race?Because some of you still have faith in a sinking ship?Okay let's say a lot of you do is it enough to win?I think that is one thing that everyone can agree on NO!!!Too many people do not trust him,they would rather vote outside of their party or not vote at all.Even getting the party behind him does not make him strong enough to win.
Wake up..If it is the Country he cares for he would walk away.   p.s Clinton Edwards ticket does have  a nice ring to it!!!
Being from PA I have yet to hear of Clinton in our area.  Bill was 3 hours away.  She has pretty much stayed in the scranton, phillie mostly and gone to the pittsburgh and erie area, from the coverage I have seen and heard!
I heard Bill was in indiana, and now hill is there.  I don't care what a pollster says, and it's not true she has covered the whole state!  She has covered key cities.  She will probably care more about us urban white folks who have lost MANY production jobs, when she gets more time.  But I see she flew to MICHIGAN for a hillary rally yesterday!  Where she blamed everything on Obama...again.  Umm...think back...these staes broke the rules...the DNC did this not Obama.  He said he will follow the rules and he has.  Hillary followed the rules while she was front runner, then she changed her mind and her speeches.  Do you want a President that flips flop like a fish out fo water, depending on the back room deal they are working on, or do you want a President that goes by the laws, and rules of out nation??  We have had a President who changed the rules in the middle of the game, changed laws to suit the ones they broke, and tries to usurp the constitution.  How has that worked??
Sorry...I don't want a flip flopping nominee that breaks rules, and possibly laws, to suit her own purpose!  
Hillary is about as transparent as my heavy duty winter flannel pj's!  And she is about as predictable as Dick Cheney....SOOOOOOOOOO??????????
Well since Rendell has said PA voters aren't ready to vote for a black man...does that surpise man people that PA is all whipped up about hildo?
I'm also from pa...and I know no one that has said they will vote for her.  Well yes someone told me they would vote for her...but they don't vote and they didn't want to register.  My parents...lifelong republicans switched parties to vote for Obama in this primary...for the FUTURE of THEIR GRANDCHILDREN!  But they will not vote for hillary.  
Guess it depends on where you live in PA!
If Obama wins...vote for McCain...you will get what you deserve then won't you?  I am a democrat...I would never vote for a Republican...especially NOW with the state of this nation!  You do what you want...that's why its called democracy!
They keep saying that PA has the same demographics as Ohio. Do the fine people of PA UNDERSTAND that Hillary LIED about Nafta? How many people are out of work in PA? She's also LIED about her so-called "experience to be ready on day 1?" Lies, scandals, etc.......you honestly want 4 more years of the Clinton's? Haven't you had enough with Bush?
Obama has been exposed for who he is ... no one would sit through the vicious hate filled racist sermons that Rev Wright delivered to his congregations unless they harbored the same sentiments.  It doesn't matter how the "clips" were introduced to the media.  What matters is the content and the fact that Obama "chose" to attend that church and associate himself with Rev Wright.  Americans need to know the candidates and what each candidate stands for.  So anyone who is upset that this information was exposed is nuts ... stop your whinning and face the facts!!!


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