New Penn memo: 'The shift to Hillary'

Posted: Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:05 AM by Mark Murray

From NBC's Mark Murray
The latest campaign missive from Clinton chief strategist Mark Penn...

To: Interested Parties
From: Mark Penn, Chief Strategist
Date: Thursday, March 20, 2008
Re: Polling Memo – The Shift to Hillary

There are some pretty big changes happening out there with the voters. Barack Obama recently declared himself the frontrunner in the race, although there are 10 contests remaining and MI and FL have not yet been decided. But a look at the polls shows that Sen. Obama’s lead nationally with Democrats has been evaporating. The Gallup daily tracking poll shows Hillary leading Sen. Obama among Democrats by 7 points, and the latest Zogby/Reuters poll has Sen. Obama’s lead down from 14 points last month to just 3 points now. This suggests a strong swing in momentum in the race to Hillary since the Texas and Ohio primaries earlier this month.

The more that the voters learn about Barack Obama, the more his ability to beat John McCain is declining compared to Hillary. For a long time we have explained that poll numbers for a candidate who has not yet been vetted or tested are not firm numbers, and we are beginning to see that clearly. Just a month ago, the Obama campaign claimed that the polls showed Barack Obama doing better than Hillary against Sen. McCain. Now such numbers are a lot harder to find.

In the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, Hillary leads John McCain by 5 points (Hillary 51 / McCain 46) while Sen. Obama is only 2 points ahead of Sen. McCain (Obama 49 / McCain 47). This is a reversal from February, when Sen. McCain led Hillary by 4 points. The latest CNN poll also shows that Hillary leads Sen. McCain by a bigger margin than Barack Obama.

In several key states, Hillary is a stronger general election candidate than Barack Obama against John McCain. For example, the latest Survey USA poll has Hillary leading Sen. McCain by 6 points in Ohio while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 7 points. In Kentucky, Hillary’s margin against Sen. McCain is 26 points better than Barack Obama’s. In Missouri, Sen. Obama lags John McCain by 14 points while Hillary comes within 2 points of Sen. McCain. In Florida, the latest PPP poll shows Barack Obama losing to John McCain by 11 points while Hillary comes within 4 points of Sen. McCain. Last week's University of Central Arkansas poll showed Hillary leading Sen. Sen. McCain by 15 points in that state while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 16 points. And the latest Rasmussen poll showed Hillary leading Sen. McCain by 11 points in New Jersey while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 2 points.

Moreover, 24 percent of Florida Democrats say that if Florida's delegates are not counted at the Democratic convention in August, they are less likely to vote for a Democrat in November, according to the latest St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll. Since Florida is the single largest and most important swing state in the country and nearly 1.8 million Florida Democrats voted in the January primary, Democrats must find a solution to allow Florida's delegates to count if we are to have any hope of winning in November.

And in the crucial state of Pennsylvania – the next Democratic primary battleground and the biggest state which has not yet voted – the latest Quinnipiac poll shows Hillary doubling her Democratic primary lead over Barack Obama from 6 points to 12 points. In Pennsylvania, Hillary improved among men, maintained her 24 point advantage among women, and improved among younger, older, more educated and less educated voters. She leads in every region across the state (NE, SE, NW, SW, Central, Alleghany) with the exception of Philadelphia.

Ultimately, this Democratic nominating process is meant to select the candidate who will: a) be the best president – the best commander-in-chief, steward of the economy, and exercise leadership; b) defeat John McCain; and c) promote and defend core Democratic principles such as universal health care. On all three fronts, Hillary is the best choice for the Democratic Party.

Hillary is the runaway leader on most qualified to be commander-in-chief. In the Ohio exit poll, 60 percent of Democratic primary voters said Hillary was most qualified to be commander-in-chief, compared with 37 percent for Barack Obama. In Texas, she led by 16 points, and in most other states, she led by 10 points or more. She also won among those who said the economy was the most important issue – by 12 points in Ohio, for example. And in the latest CNN poll, more voters say Hillary would do a good job on the economy than Barack Obama or John McCain. Finally, in the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, Hillary leads Barack Obama on strong and decisive leadership, managing the government effectively and having a clear plan for solving the country’s problems.

EMAIL THIS

Comments

********A REPETATIVE PATTERN*********

Sen. Obama is 100% ‘UNELECTABLE’ (very sad). His consistency of the inconsistency has left many voters to question his Judgment, Character and Leadership abilities to steer this country through very serious times!

TRUST IS GONE, period ! Once you no longer have trust (especially with the working class of this country), it is very very difficult to regain, if at all. In the remaining states, the voters are going to come out in huge numbers and crack this election wide open in favor of Sen. Clinton as many are finally realizing the inconsistencies of Sen. Obama is a repetitive pattern that leaves us all to question if this is “Change we can really believe in.”

The Superdeligates need to wake up and realize the scandals involving Sen. Obama will NOT soon be forgotten by the voters, nor will the scandals be swept quietly under the carpet and go away (as many in the media are hoping).

Especially, when Sen. Obama is willing to disenfranchise millions of voters to suit his specific needs when he stands at podium and claims he wants to “UNITE” America ! How is disenfranchising millions of voters ‘uniting’ America?

Makes absolutely no sense – again, we see a repetitive pattern of the consistency of the inconsistencies.

Trust me, come November ---voters will remember and as such, MI and FL will go to McCain.

Consistency of Obama’s inconsistencies (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:11 AM)

So NOW polls count ?
When was the last time Mark penn said the Gallup tracking poll was relevant ?

Benjamin (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:12 AM)

And yet she is losing in the most important polling there is: votes.

She has won fewer states, fewer delegates, and fewer votes.

Unfortunately, Mr. Penn, you can't spin reality.

CitizenJ (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:12 AM)

WOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
THE TIDES ARE A TURNING....THANK GOD,PEOPLE ARE FINALLY WAKING UP....AND IF I AM NOT MISTAKEN MICHELLE OBAMA SAID THIS WOULD BE THE ONLY TIME HE WOULD RUN....MUSIC TO MY EARS!!!GO BACK TO CHICAGO AND FROM A WHITE CHRISTIAN:"HAVE A BLESSED DAY"

PHYLLIS,OH (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:13 AM)

Well, THAT particular collection of spin is neither fair, balanced or even completely accurate. Amazing how Team Clinton continues to live in their own 'little' world. The American people are speaking loudly and clearly everyday, WE WANT OBAMA. Now if only the Clinton Team would listen...

Cheryl Henry, Atlanta, GA (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:13 AM)

Sorry Penn but the more people learn about Obama's leadership and candor...the more presidential he looks.

Compare that to Hillary who constantly ducks the tough questions. A reporter asked Hillary, what do you think about Obama's speech. Her response, that's a question for Obama. Oh yea, real presidential.

Maddog, Charlotte NC (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:14 AM)

With the schedules recently released, it's obvious that the credit Ms. Clinton gave herself for "foreign policy experience" was great exagurated. I would wonder if that story were covered as exhaustivly as the Obama minister's statements - how would that poll react. The polls show a decline in numbers for Obama since the extensive and saturated coverage on all the major networks of the minister. What interesting to me is that Ms. Clinton's OWN words have been often inaccurate, while Mr. Obama is being judged harshly for the words on his minister - not for anything he himself said.

I'm a white, middle-aged union voter in Indiana. My vote is going for Obama. It's obvious that he has generated enthusiasm, voter interest and a groundswell of support. He will be the nominee - I'm certain of it.

Michael, Indianapolis, IN (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:14 AM)

Momentum swings largely reflect people's visceral reactions to whatever the MSM is feeding them that particular day. I have faith. The Clintons will not be able to help themselves, and momentum will shift again before the convention. Senator Obama will win the nomination and the general election.

Obama/Webb 08

Amy Andersen (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:15 AM)

Blah, Blah, Blah

Does this guy have a job lined up after his client loses the nomination?

Jesse, Fallon NV (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:15 AM)

Obama will still beat her!

Go Obama

Paula ME (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:15 AM)

Mark Penn, the more we know about the Clinton's, the more we dislike them. Okay?

Hillary Clinton is a woman who did not investigate the Bush Administration's claim of WMD's in Iraq. She couldn't be bothered even though it is Congress's responsibility to hold any Administration accountable.

Now 4,000 Americans killed. How many thousands upon thousands of Iraqi's civilians I wonder have lost their lives simply because Congress didn't do their homework?

I hope you all got a chance to see Keith's interview last night with Jon Soltz/Votevets.org. The pain in his face and voice is undeniable. Our vets are hurting not only physically and economically, but also emotionally, knowing their government sent them on a mission based on lies.

Let's hope we don't forget what this upcoming election is about. It's about what kind of country we want to be, what kind of leadership we want and should demand.

Hillary can't make that happen.

Chris Matthews was right - when we talk about change, we're talking about our country never, ever repeating the mistakes made in Iraq.

Pat, Boston, MA (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:16 AM)

Penn is right. This Wright stuff hanging on Obama is going to bring him down.

Bwang Jue (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:17 AM)

So the polls are meaningless unless Hillary is up.... then they mean everything? Before they get all excited, they should take another look next week, when the "Wright effect" has worn off.

Linda. Boston, MA (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:18 AM)

national poll numbers are a farce, and anything coming out of the mouth of a man of mark penn's stature should be taken for what it's worth, nothing

MK,MO (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:18 AM)

this campaign is getting more ridiculous by the day! there is no way for Hillary to catch up! why is the press constantly fanning the flames of all of these meaningless polls, analogies, etc. why doesn't the DNC step in & end this madness before the entire democratic pary is destroyed by the Clinton's win at any cost logic.

Diane P. Riverdale,MD (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:18 AM)

It's Game Over, Hillary!! Please concede to unify the Democratic Party. After Barack's speech on race, I am more than convinced that he is our best hope for this country. It's over, Hillary.

NN (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:19 AM)

What Mark Penn failed to brag about is Hillary's smear campaign with the super delegates by reminding them that Obama can't be electable because of the Wright controversy.

Makes wonder if Mark and Harold didn't start the whole Wright thing in the first place.

BobW Mendon, NY (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:19 AM)

Nice try Mark Penn. All of the spin is making me dizzy. It was funny how you picked and chose certain polls. Give it up.

Enrique, Chicago (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:20 AM)

This just goes to show that if given the chance Hillary can do this. She has the experience and I wish her all the luck.

Elle Brooks, San Bernardino, California (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:20 AM)

Sen. Hillary Clinton's top pollster says voters are starting to get a case of "buyer's remorse" when it comes to choosing a presidential candidate.Selectively citing some flattering new polling figures, top Clinton adviser Mark Penn claimed Sen. Barack Obama's national lead among Democrats is "evaporating"."Perhaps a significant case of buyer's remorse is setting in as people begin to go through the process of vetting and testing Senator Obama," Penn told reporters on a conference call Wednesday.

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1905

.

Jeff, Austin (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:21 AM)

The polls of which he speaks were taken in the midst of the Wright scandal and BEFORE Obama's very well-received speech.

What this is - is a tactic to direct attention to Obama's low poll numbers in hopes that the voters will act like sheep and his numbers will continue to drop.

The Clintons understand this phenominon - look at where Bill's poll numbers were right after Monica...but he still left office with a much higher approval rating.

The Clintons have to do this - it reflects the despiration the campaign is feeling right now. There is NO WAY the math works for Clinton. So now she MUST rely on the Super Deligates - b/c the polls that matter - the ones where people actually VOTED - show that Obama won more STATES, more POPULAR VOTE and more DELIGATES than Clinton.

I really hope that the voters are smarter than this.

Mel (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:21 AM)

Jeff, Austin (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:21 AM)

I love how he cherry picks only certain exit polls.

Can't wait to see the spin when/if the numbers reverse. That poll was taken during the 4 days of the Wright videos being on endless replay and before the speech by Obama.

Lets see what the polls say in Pennsylvania and across the nation over the next 3 weeks, after things have settled in. Maybe ones taken after the Penns debate. Lets see if the numbers hold true or not before you prance around. One poll is not a trend or shift, just a quick snapshot. It takes a series of polls over a period of time to show a trend. Only time will tell.

BL, Cincinnati OH (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:21 AM)

Let's talk about unelectable. Hillary is and always has been. Her negatives are at 53 - sorry, not even in the ballpark.

The end result of her kitchen sink strategy could be an unelectable Obama. This will be Clinton working to the detriment of the Democratic Party for her own selfish reasons.

My personal guess is she already has given up on this year's nomination, but if she can ensure Obama loses, there will be a new nomination race in 2012.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:22 AM)

Mr Penn does not seem to understand any mathematical functions other than straight lines and should realize that this campaign can't be be modeled so simply. The polls on Obama, McCain and Clinton have been and will continue to oscillate until finally damping out with a winner and loser. The complexity of this election is not what Penn expected and Obama is tenacious and actually very adept at turning the tables.

Jim, Santa Cruz (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:22 AM)

When Hillary drops out the Florida and Michgan delegations will be seated, easy enough. As for the polls, they show that the knife fight started by the Clinton campaign is dragging both of them down.

Noel, Hot Springs, AR (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:22 AM)

Can anyone please tell me what was so awful about the 90's?

Economy was stable....
401ks were holding up well....
people had money in their pockets...

WHAT was so awful about this? Clinton took a deficit and turned it into a surplus within 3 years...

WHAT WAS SO BAD ABOUT THIS ???

PA Voter (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:23 AM)

To: Mr. Penn
From: Mr. Taylor
Re: Reality

On March 7th, Barack Obama was losing to Hillary Clinton 43% to 49%, according to Rasmussen's daily tracking poll. Today, March 20th, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 45% to 44%.

True, both candidates have experienced ups and downs. However, you're just being stupid.

Jeff (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:23 AM)

I think it's sad that this is become for Hillary a win at any cost. It doesn't matter that she is splitting the party, or changing the rules in the middle of the "game". Senator Obama continues to show his leadership and fairness. He has always treated all states as equally important. She now claims she does, because she is desparete. When she lost in Iowa, it didn't count. She continued to have excuses in any state she didn't win. As a 53 year old white woman from Minnesota, I am saddened that she feels our votes are worthless because we had a caucus. She has lost my respect because she continues to put herself first. Hillary, do what's right for America, and bow out gracifully. Quit playing old politics. America is tired of it. And we know the polls aren't reliable. According to the polls, my mother, myself, and my daughters should all be voting for you. We chose to vote for Senator Obama because he believes in a better America. Please accept this in a concerned voice and not an angry one.
Denise from Minnesota

Denise Karger, Rockford, Minnesota (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:24 AM)

Obama = Hindenburg. Oh! the humanity!

j fl (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:25 AM)

NEW CBS POLL (Out Today)

Obama 48 McCain 43

Hillary 46 McCain 44

Ah, where is this shift?

Obama is taking on four major players here, Hillary, Bill, McCain and some of those racist red-necks that the news pundits call white blue coller workers, and he is still standing.

Obama takes a major hit with the Rev. Wright crap and all that Hillary can throw at him including the bathroom sink in addition to the kitchen sink and he still beats McCain by much greater numbers then Hillary.

By the way, we know that those reporting for MSNBC have their own picks and biases and that they come out from time to time. That's cool. We realize you guys and gals are only human. But tell Joe Scarborough that he is the absolute worse. Man does this guy show his true colors. You would think he were married to Hillary rather then Bill. Looking for a spot in a Hillary administration Joe?

SIT DOWN HILLARY!

C A, Tuscaloosa, AL (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:25 AM)

The Hillary C. camp is definitely leading in the state of denial.

Danny C. Chicago, IL (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:27 AM)

Consistency of Obama’s inconsistencies (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:11 AM)

So now the Clintons are in the Politics of Projecting. Very funny.

Jose Hussein, PA (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:27 AM)

According to the Boston Globe, hundreds of thousands of Republicans in Texas and Ohio voted for Hillary in the March 4th primary. "It's as simple as this: I don't think McCain can beat Obama," said one Texas Republican who voted for Hillary.

John Mehan, San Francisco, CA (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:28 AM)

Give it up Hillary. To quote your husband, "Give me a break. This whole thing is the biggest fairy tail I've ever seen." You lost - don't take the party down out of your own desperation.

Ryan C, New Orleans, LA (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:29 AM)

Watch what you say Penn...polls do not comprise the candidate. When Obama turns this around what will Penn have to say then. It's not about cynicism, political positioning, and dealings..Obama is honest and that is what will be his victory in the end. That is the biggest political failure of this generation, leadership by polls and opinion...not conviction and humility.

CJ (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:30 AM)

You see a shift because Senator Obama is being attacked from all sides, and they all pretty much sound the same. If this is the best they can throw at him, given the way he has responded to this whole Wright issue, Obama is going to walk away easily in November at the real poll that counts: actual votes.

Matt from Iraq (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:30 AM)

Hillary supporters, be realistic:
1. Travelgate

2. Lawsuit needed to get the heavily redacted schedules

3. HRC and Bill campaigning for McCain with their glowing support of him!!!?? (Come on people - why is the DNC accepting THAT? - no one wants 4 more years of Bush policy)

4. NORMAN HSU - why isn't he a headline or Peter Paul?
if you are to be held accountable not for yourself, but anyone who you know.

5. Anyone bothered that the recently released schedules show Hillary having meetings on behalf of NAFTA and encouraging support for it?? I'm union - NAFTA is a deal breaker for that vote - believe me.

This list could go on - but suffice it to say if the news media saturated the airwaves with these issues, Hillary's numbers would drop like lead.

Marty, Crown Point, IN (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:31 AM)

Maybe Penn can explain how a candidate (Clinton) who was unfavorable rating of 53%-55% and who more than 50% of the population believes to be dishonest and untrustworthy is electable. Even with the Wright controversy, he is still beating her.

Paul (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:32 AM)

The Mark Penn express to where exactly?
first it is one thing. Then it is another thing. Then it is everything. Then it is nothing.
No wonder Hillary's message has been so consistent.
Oh ya. Message is Mandy's and Howard's job. Mark has no responsibility here what so ever.
None that is until there is so potential good news in the message. Then it is all in the numbers. just ask Mark. He'll set it straight. He is Chief Strategist.
The main man. With no budget authority or access.
WOW!
No wonder patty in SD finds this so easy to follow.

PAW, Oakland, CA (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:33 AM)

Penn: "Polls don't count", "Polls don't count"...whoops "Polls count"!

Hey Penn, if your candidate was READY ON DAY 1, why wasn't she fighting for MI and FL to count THEN back in 2007???????

Lady Professor (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:34 AM)

The new polls (gallup) do show Hilary leading Obama now 49-42 with 3% margin of error - even after his speech. This is the biggest lead any of them had ever held. So yes, there is definitely a slow but steady shift in momentum.

To those that feels Hilary will try to win at any cost, try to examine Obama as well. Be fair. He straight faced noted that he knew nothing of his Pastor's stance on controversial issues while contradicted that in his speech. Looks to me like he would do anything to get there himself.

Both are in a hotly contested fight to nomination. They both will do whatever it takes.

It's a question now of who we can truly rely on in times like these where everything is a mess from the economy to foreign affairs. Enough of the side shows. We need to focus on getting our problems resolve. And we can do that by voting for the right candidate.

Joyce, PA (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:35 AM)

It makes me happy to see that the people haven't given up on Obama. O' was right, the people who were never going to vote for him still won't (Pat Buchanan). Those who know that he is clearly the most intelligent, thoughtful, rational candidate, will vote for Barack regardless of the Clinton spin.

The wright comment will turn out to be positive, as American's wake up and realize that we should all be angry about the injustices this country has perpetrated on its own people and throughout the world.

This is why Barack is the best candidate, he has been working and speaking out against the deplorable acts of the American government, and yes, the rich people who run this country (banking crisis - ills of inevstment capital).

Barack treats the people as they are, people and not voters. So, why don't the people in MI and Fl, get a vote? They already did, but they let their state government break the rules so that their votes don't count. Blame the state, not the Barack. God forbid we have a president who is willing to follow rules.

Barack Obama "08

JC, Massachusetts (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:35 AM)

Hey j fl:

If Obama is the Hindenburg then Clinton is the Titanic.

Stupid @$$ (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:36 AM)

Is anyone besides me so sick of the spin, spin , spin???? The only person speaking to us like adults with a brain is Obama. I admaire him more every day and my respect for Hillary plummets.

las. fleetwood, ny (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:39 AM)

It's about what kind of country we want to be, what kind of leadership we want and should demand.
****
Yes, Pat, peoplle deserve a good leader. They don't deserve a sneak and a liar. I'm appalled that people can't see Obama was attemtpting to sneak Wright by you, but he got caught. This man who has PREACHED transparency and truth. He's not who he says he is. And, for me, all his rhetoric was 'JUST WORDS'.

oknOK (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:39 AM)

Mark Penn and Terry McAuliffe; WHAT A PAIR. One has numbers that never add up and you can't believe a word the other one says. Mr. Wrong and Mr. Smarmy. Another reason not to vote for Hillary.

Robert Catalano, Salem, OR (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:42 AM)

My personal guess is she already has given up on this year's nomination, but if she can ensure Obama loses, there will be a new nomination race in 2012.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA

Obama doesn't need any help from Hillary, he's losing all by himself.

Dan Locke (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:42 AM)

This memo may come back to bite Mr. Penn if the poll numbers change in the next few weeks. If that happens, what argument will he be able to make on behalf of Senator Clinton?

The longer this goes on the more I think a joint Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket will be the only way to salvage the Democratic party, even though I think both candidates would prefer to run with somebody else.

I'm curious: How many Democrats will really vote for McCain if your preferred Democratic candidate is not on the ballot? Personally, I STRONGLY prefer an Obama presidency, but barring some kind of incredible scandal (like one of the nominees being a serial-killer or something along those lines), I could never throw my support behind the Republican candidate this year. I'll suck it up and support Clinton, if that's what it comes to and as downhearted as I would be.

Does anybody else have any thoughts on this? (Haters, please don't respond. I'm so sick of the hate.)

Baileigh (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:44 AM)

Voters with an IQ higher than a potato know this is just more of the same spin we've grown so accustomed to...

New Bumper Sticker for the Clinton campaign should be:

Potato Heads for Clinton 08!

Feisty Redhead IL (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:45 AM)

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