New Penn memo: 'The shift to Hillary'

Posted: Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:05 AM by Mark Murray

From NBC's Mark Murray
The latest campaign missive from Clinton chief strategist Mark Penn...

To: Interested Parties
From: Mark Penn, Chief Strategist
Date: Thursday, March 20, 2008
Re: Polling Memo – The Shift to Hillary

There are some pretty big changes happening out there with the voters. Barack Obama recently declared himself the frontrunner in the race, although there are 10 contests remaining and MI and FL have not yet been decided. But a look at the polls shows that Sen. Obama’s lead nationally with Democrats has been evaporating. The Gallup daily tracking poll shows Hillary leading Sen. Obama among Democrats by 7 points, and the latest Zogby/Reuters poll has Sen. Obama’s lead down from 14 points last month to just 3 points now. This suggests a strong swing in momentum in the race to Hillary since the Texas and Ohio primaries earlier this month.

The more that the voters learn about Barack Obama, the more his ability to beat John McCain is declining compared to Hillary. For a long time we have explained that poll numbers for a candidate who has not yet been vetted or tested are not firm numbers, and we are beginning to see that clearly. Just a month ago, the Obama campaign claimed that the polls showed Barack Obama doing better than Hillary against Sen. McCain. Now such numbers are a lot harder to find.

In the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, Hillary leads John McCain by 5 points (Hillary 51 / McCain 46) while Sen. Obama is only 2 points ahead of Sen. McCain (Obama 49 / McCain 47). This is a reversal from February, when Sen. McCain led Hillary by 4 points. The latest CNN poll also shows that Hillary leads Sen. McCain by a bigger margin than Barack Obama.

In several key states, Hillary is a stronger general election candidate than Barack Obama against John McCain. For example, the latest Survey USA poll has Hillary leading Sen. McCain by 6 points in Ohio while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 7 points. In Kentucky, Hillary’s margin against Sen. McCain is 26 points better than Barack Obama’s. In Missouri, Sen. Obama lags John McCain by 14 points while Hillary comes within 2 points of Sen. McCain. In Florida, the latest PPP poll shows Barack Obama losing to John McCain by 11 points while Hillary comes within 4 points of Sen. McCain. Last week's University of Central Arkansas poll showed Hillary leading Sen. Sen. McCain by 15 points in that state while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 16 points. And the latest Rasmussen poll showed Hillary leading Sen. McCain by 11 points in New Jersey while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 2 points.

Moreover, 24 percent of Florida Democrats say that if Florida's delegates are not counted at the Democratic convention in August, they are less likely to vote for a Democrat in November, according to the latest St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll. Since Florida is the single largest and most important swing state in the country and nearly 1.8 million Florida Democrats voted in the January primary, Democrats must find a solution to allow Florida's delegates to count if we are to have any hope of winning in November.

And in the crucial state of Pennsylvania – the next Democratic primary battleground and the biggest state which has not yet voted – the latest Quinnipiac poll shows Hillary doubling her Democratic primary lead over Barack Obama from 6 points to 12 points. In Pennsylvania, Hillary improved among men, maintained her 24 point advantage among women, and improved among younger, older, more educated and less educated voters. She leads in every region across the state (NE, SE, NW, SW, Central, Alleghany) with the exception of Philadelphia.

Ultimately, this Democratic nominating process is meant to select the candidate who will: a) be the best president – the best commander-in-chief, steward of the economy, and exercise leadership; b) defeat John McCain; and c) promote and defend core Democratic principles such as universal health care. On all three fronts, Hillary is the best choice for the Democratic Party.

Hillary is the runaway leader on most qualified to be commander-in-chief. In the Ohio exit poll, 60 percent of Democratic primary voters said Hillary was most qualified to be commander-in-chief, compared with 37 percent for Barack Obama. In Texas, she led by 16 points, and in most other states, she led by 10 points or more. She also won among those who said the economy was the most important issue – by 12 points in Ohio, for example. And in the latest CNN poll, more voters say Hillary would do a good job on the economy than Barack Obama or John McCain. Finally, in the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, Hillary leads Barack Obama on strong and decisive leadership, managing the government effectively and having a clear plan for solving the country’s problems.

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Comments

Joyce - you probably ought to look at ALL the polls, not just one. Obama is our nominee, Hillary needs to get a calculator.

Poll Date Sample Obama Clinton Spread
RCP Average 03/13 - 03/18 - 47.2 44.2 Obama +3.0
Rasmussen Tracking 03/15 - 03/18 900 LV 47 42 Obama +5.0

CBS News 03/15 - 03/18 LV 46 43 Obama +3.0
CNN 03/14 - 03/16 463 RV 52 45 Obama +7.0
USA Today/Gallup 03/14 - 03/16 530 A 49 42 Obama +7.0

Terri, Pittsburgh, PA (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:46 AM)

Penn should stop giving these people false hope and ask for their support "No Matter Who Wins."

Hillary's not gonna make it, and the more she goes forward, the more she shows that the stuff will stick to her where you will see Obama get through these attacks from left, right, and center with ease!

Hillary supported (according to initial releases of her First Lady calendar/schedule) the passage of NAFTA, and that will hurt her in PA.

The reason why Obama's being charged with some other man's words as his own (Rev. Wright) is because it's gonna come up later against McCain, and Obama needed to be vetted of it prior to upcoming Dem attack against McCain! Hillary's not being vetted in the press anymore. The people have just stopped looking.
Why?
Her candidacy is now officially over.
Find something now about Barry Obama that you like today and can support tomorrow - because he will be the nominee, or the Dem party is toast.

Mister Oh, Seattle, Wash (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:47 AM)

My personal guess is she already has given up on this year's nomination, but if she can ensure Obama loses, there will be a new nomination race in 2012.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA

Paul I am with you, it is almost as if she is doing it out of SPITE. That is my only explanation for her actions.

Kym (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:48 AM)

Hmmm. Instead of spin and memos how about we just wait and see how well Obama and Clinton do in the upcoming contests?
Obama isn't done yet and if he ends up overcoming this bit of negative MSM airplay, he will be all the stronger for it. If not, you still have the Clinton candidacy to falll back on.

As an independent voter who starting voting in the first place after being inspired by Bill Clinton in 1992, and as someone who voted for Hillary in the last Senate race, I am disappointed that the Demorcats would make the same kind of choice they made in 2004 and run a candidate who is somewhat compromised on the issue of Iraq, which really is the core issue. The economy would be in far better shape were it not for this mistaken war. The US dollar would probably also be stronger as we wouldn't have flooded the market with them since we have to borrow cash from the likes of China to finance this mess.

I also think that while Hillary has proven herself a tough opponent, all this flip flopping over Florida and Michigan make this grown accomplished woman sound like a child who seeks to change the rules when she is losing. Her own guy, Ickes voted to impose these very rules over at the DNC, she herself signed on to agree to them.
Seems to me the fairest thing is to stick to those rules which were established and agreed upon way back before anyone had won any actual races or delegates. To play games with it now, and to now claim that you are concerned about these voters not having a voice, when before you agreed to all of this sinks you to a level that does you justice. Hillary picks and chooses. She was not concerned about these votes when she thought that they wouldn't matter. She never thought the contest would go like this. Her team did not plan to run a full primary. They targeted the big states where she was the favorite.
Think about this.
THIS IS THE SAME LOSING STRATEGY- IT LOST IN 2004
in 2002 in 2000.

In 1992 and in 1996 Bill Clinton managed to never crack 50% of the popular vote. HE also never managed to have coat-tails as the Democrats lost seats in both elections.

Since Dr. Dean took over the DNC and replaced Clintons' man Terry, the Democrats won seats in the last midterm they would not have otherwise. The Dems made major gains at the state level. The party is being built from the ground up.

Its seems to me its the instinct of the Clinton people to think "top down". To avoid competing in states where they deem they have less of a chance to win. That is a major mistake.

The other problem I have with the Clinton run (aside the obvious royal family stuff and the Bush. Clinton, Bush, Clinton pattern)
is that both her and Bill seem to willing to say anything to win.
I get the Commander-in Chief "test" remarks. But the problem is that they claim McCain and Hillary pass some phantom test while Obama has yet to. This obviously plays well for the GOP.

And its a false premise anyway.

Truth is, Hillary failed when she did not show leadership back in 2002. She failed again when she voted for that Iranian resolution recently. Hillary's record, which is what she should be measured by is what the problem is. Look at her Senate record.

I also would remind people of something-
The Clintons do fight and they fight very hard.
They will do what it takes to win back the Whitehouse.

But remember this- when the healthcare thing exploded in their faces , they put their tales between their legs and retreated from the subject.

The only time I recall Bill putting his foot down was when the government shut down for a bit in 95.

They fought only when Monica happened. ANd that was for themselves.

PD NEWYORK (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:48 AM)

My wife lost 20 pounds taking Mark Penn's Spinning Class...

Ron, TX (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:51 AM)

I don't know where they get these people they poll. I can only tell you from my experience, I have been speaking to alot of people and they are extremely unhappy with the Clintons and the way they are running this campaign. The whole Florida Michigan vote is distateful, and she signed her agreement that they would be disqualified. Where were all the words about voters being disenfranchised when it was happening? Where were all the Florida and Michigan voters who are so upset now???

As far as Rev. Wright goes, almost every American has a friend or a relative who says things that we disagree with. I heard one of the republicans on t.v. (I can't remember his name, Joe?) say he would NEVER vote for anyone who sat and listened to someone say goddamnamerica. First of all, no one knows if Obama was at that service and if he was if he said anything privately to Wright. I just sat through my son's confirmation and totally disagreed with at least 2 things the bishop said. And disagreed strongly. Will I leave my church? No. Did I talk to my kids on the way home, yes.

As far as all these idiots who say we should never criticize America, I say they have been listening to the Bush administration too long. I see nothing wrong in criticizing anything! I have never believed in blindly following anything out of loyalty. Everything and I mean EVERYTHING can always be made better. I have raised my children to always ask questions of anything they disagree with. If the founders of our country never believed in questioning the way things were being run, we wouldn't be the U.S.A. I have also taught my children that they have to learn to live with ALL people, even those they don't agree with. This concept of totally disassociating with people you don't agree with is ridiculous. Even Jesus hung around with the sinners.

As far as judging Obama by his minister's words, why not judge him instead on the work he has done and the way he has voted? Do the same with Hillary and McCain.

At any rate, the way Obama has stood up to all these hits (remember how he wasn't tested?) has only strengthened those who believe in him. I am an independent and have not even been able to vote. I think you would be very surprised by how many people actually support him.

New Independent (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 11:52 AM)

The establishment have found their go to guy, (Jeremiah Wright)to try & derail Barack's nomination.This pattern developed early in the campaign,Muslim email, Madrassa's attended, Jesse Jackson,Picture in Native dress & Now, Mr Wright.Until this past week, America had fought for Barack & against the Establishment trying to Ruin a Great politician Again.I have No fact's that this is why Hillary was able to maintain a campaign after 11 losses in a row(so late in the season)other than Common Sense.
My support for Barack has Not & will Not be diminshed by this line of attack.Since Day 1, i have been an avid supporter & will Proudly cast my vote for Barack in May.I'm smart enough Not to allow this Public Lynching that is happening. I'm Smart enough Not to allow the establishment to Put the word's of 1 man inside the body of a Completely different man.I'm Smart enough to see that Barack has taken every hit from every angle coming from Hillary, Mccain,GWB, The MSM, The Religous Right Terrorist Bible Thumper's & whoever else has tryed to attack the man's Integrity, Judgement & Character & continues to Beat them All.Not a single one of us could withstand this kinda pressure, yet he has.His supporter's will Not allow this Public Lynching to happen as evidenced by his commanding lead in every category that matter's for the Democratic Nomination.

" DELUSIONAL THINKING BY COMMON SENSE AMERICAN'S IS OVER"

Rick,Ky (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 12:02 PM)

We all know the Clinton's policy is driven by polls, so it is easy to understand why they want the super delegates to use them in their decision making. Here's a different idea, let's use principal!

Brian, NC (Sent Thursday, March 20, 2008 12:02 PM)

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