First thoughts: Clinton's Day
Posted: Monday, March 24, 2008 9:55 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts, 2008
From Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
*** Clinton’s day: The candidates have been taking a breather. Clinton was down all weekend, and Obama has left the continental U.S. for some quality time with the family and won’t check back in until Wednesday. (BTW, since he's reportedly so close, will Obama stop off in Puerto Rico on his way home? But we digress). It should be a slow week but noting that we’ve said THAT before. As for today, it is Clinton’s day. She could dominate the news cycle with a major speech on the housing crisis in Pennsylvania. On this issue, Clinton has devoted more campaign time to the issue than either Obama or McCain. It's potentially in Clinton's wheelhouse for a number of reasons: (1) She's seen as the candidate of policy positions; she's bread and butter not inspiration and that could play well with Pennsylvania's blue-collar housing-nervous electorate and (2) Her last name is a solid credential on the economy. While Clinton's tried to (sometimes clumsily; see Bosnia) claim foreign policy experience in her days as First Lady, the real benefit she should be figuring out how to get out of the Clinton presidential years is credit on the economy; those were the real successes of the Clinton year; if anything foreign policy was, at best, a mixed bag and only now being seen in a more positive light by some because of the current president.
*** "All this other stuff..." Bill Clinton's Friday afternoon comments about why he thinks a Clinton-McCain contest will be better for the country has been viewed by Obama supporters has an attack on the candidate's patriotism. But be sure to focus on this phrase, "all this other stuff" intruding on the campaign and less on the "loves America" line. Wasn't Clinton sending another message to the crowd of older, white male voters? (Remember, he was at a VFW and there was barely a member of the audience under 60, according to our reporter in the field)? The message: That if you don't want to talk about race, then Clinton's the candidate; if you do want race intruding into the campaign, then support Obama. There are many older, white voters, while sympathetic to Obama's message on race, don't want to be reminded to take their medicine and the subtle message Clinton may actually have been sending was just that, support Clinton and avoid taking your race medicine.
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd discusses the Clinton campaign's reaction to Gov. Bill Richardson's endorsement of Obama last week. ***
The latest spin: So yesterday on the Sunday shows, two Clinton surrogates made their latest case to the superdelegates, which is, add up the electoral votes of the states won by Clinton vs. the states won by Obama. Why this metric? Because it is the only metric the Clinton campaign has come up with yet has her ahead: she's behind in popular vote, behind in delegates earned JUST through primaries and behind in pledged delegates. Of course, keep in mind, two of Kerry's final primary victories in '04 which essentially drove everyone out of the race (though the candidates did fight through Wisconsin) was Virginia and Tennessee; Kerry didn't carry either state. The motivation to use this Electoral College talking point is yet another attempt by the Clinton camp to discount some of Obama's small-state victories because Obama's won nearly twice the number of states. If you recall, in '00, during the recount dispute, the Bush campaign made sure the country saw that county-by-county map from around the country which showed the country in a sea of red. Obama's victory map, right now, looks more impressive than Clinton's visually. By the way, one other point, there's a reason Clinton's done well in bigger states, and that's time. Obama starts off behind some 15-20 points in most of these big states; when he campaigns in the state, he always closes the gap to a point. But is the de facto lever pull for less informed Dems Clinton until Obama spends an enormous amount of money? Just asking...
***
Hello, my name is…: The NYT’s/CNBC’s John Harwood curtain raises the planned re-introduction of McCain to the American populace. Campaign Manager Rick “Davis’s plan involves laying a sturdier foundation for Mr. McCain’s positive, but relatively shallow, public image,” Harwood writes. “It starts in earnest on March 31 with a ‘Service for America’ tour, intended to link the senator’s biography with his values and policy stances. Along the way, it will underscore life events that occurred in battleground states -- like Virginia, where Mr. McCain attended high school, and Florida, where he trained as a Navy pilot. He will address the dominant domestic issue with events in April promoting his economic agenda.” In addition, McCain will also continue to try and put together a campaign infrastructure; He still doesn't have a pollster and he may need a new media consultant since Mark McKinnnon has said he won't work against Obama. By the way, will conservative talk radio take a break from Rev. Wright to discuss the NYT piece about McCain's two flirtations with leaving the GOP? Our guess: no. What's done is done; had the GOP primary still been active when this story hit, then maybe this would have become a hot topic.
***
California going e-Bay? Speaking of the McCain team, get to know e-Bay CEO Meg Whitman, who may be using her role as National co-chair of McCain's campaign to size up a California governor’s run in 2010. The L.A. Times has the scoop
(Addendum: Actually, our friends at the Cailfornia Target Book broke the news of Whitman's interest in running for governor back in December) on the pro-choice businesswoman who wasn't a registered Republican for much of her time in California. The state GOP is always looking for a non-conforming party person to run for statewide office and it looks like Whitman is the current dream candidate for 2010.
***
Dyngus Day: Sometimes we wish we worked for Stewart or Conan or Jay or Dave or even Jimmy. Why? Because of days like this. Bill Clinton is in Indiana (with Chelsea), celebrating Dyngus Day, which according to one Google search, is a Polish holiday where guys get to
drench gals in water. (Seriously, we’re not making this up!); Apparently tomorrow, gals get to throw dishes at the guys. Just what part of Dyngus Day will Bill Clinton take part in? Ok, sorry, couldn't help ourselves, but seriously...
*** The Delegate Count: Obama leads Clinton 1,626-1,506 overall. This includes the pledged count of Obama 1,408, Clinton 1,251 and the superdelegate count of Clinton 255, Obama 218. in the popular vote, Obama is ahead 13,405,271-12,706,194.
*** On the trail: Today is the last day voters in Pennsylvania voters can register to vote as Dems to participate in the 4/22 Dem primary. Clinton makes three stops in Pennsylvania, including her housing speech; McCain has two California fundraisers and holds a town hall there; Bill Clinton makes five stops in Indiana (including Dyngus Day celebrations); and Obama is on family vacation.
Countdown to Pennsylvania: 29 days
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 43 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 225 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 302 days
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