The delegate fight: 'Fuzzy math'

Posted: Tuesday, March 25, 2008 9:36 AM by Domenico Montanaro

The New York Post calls the latest Clinton spin, that she leads Obama in electoral votes, “fuzzy math.” “She's behind Barack Obama in popular votes, delegates and overall wins, but Hillary Rodham Clinton's backers have found a new way to claim their candidate is on top…”

PENNSYLVANIA: 4/22 (158 delegates)
“Democratic Party enrollment surged past the 4 million mark Monday, setting a state record on the last day Pennsylvanians had to register to vote in next month's presidential primary. The figures, which showed modest declines in the ranks of Republicans and independents, reflected intense interest in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination and recruitment efforts by both candidates.”

Some notes from NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger:
*The Obama team has not released which cities the candidate will visit in a six-day bus tour across the state, which starts Friday in western Pennsylvania and conclude in the southeast.

*Obama’s team may still be getting their bearings in the Keystone State. They labeled a press release with the dateline “Pennsylvania, Pa.”

*SEIU leaders said they are planning on focusing on “member-to-member” contacts throughout Pennsylvania, choosing not to air advertisements for Obama at this time. “We think in Pennsylvania, the more workers can talk to workers, the more influential we can be,” said Anna Burger, SEIU Secretary-Treasurer, in a conference call with reporters Monday.

At 4:30 p.m. Monday, as the doors to Chester County Voter Services automatically clicked shut, several people pleaded for entry, to register to vote for the primary. Election officials across the state said they had never seen a rush like what occurred over the weekend. Obama campaign aides were at the Voter Services door, ready to give those shut out alternative suggestions to register in time.

*The Department of State reports 120,501 new voter applications this year through Sunday, and 86,711 people changing their party affiliations to Democrat. There’s now more than 4 million registered Democrats in the state.

*The state’s GOP will need to work hard to bring some of those who switched their party affiliations to Democrats back into the Republican fold, or at least to vote for McCain in November. “We know everybody who switched,” state Republican chairman Rob Gleason said. “When this election is over, we’re going after those people. We’re going to get them back.”

INDIANA: 5/6 (72 delegates)
The Washington Post helps to reinforce the C.W. that Indiana is the last remaining "swing state" in this Clinton-Obama primary fight. Southern Indiana is Clinton country while N.W. Indiana (i.e. the Chicago media market bleed) is Obama territory. Should be as fair of a fight that the two have left. Most importantly, what will Indiana's most famous son do? David Letterman? He's shown a liking to Clinton for much of this campaign will he and his famous mom make a full-throated endorsement?

NORTH CAROLINA: 5/6 (115 delegates)
Something to ponder for the upcoming primary and even the general, fewer N.C. folks are self-I.D.ing as Republicans, according to Pew Research data.

NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann reports, the ever-vigilant RNC has never been enamored of the "Obamacan" thesis -- the idea that fed-up Republicans are crossing the aisle in favor of Barack Obama's supposed post-partisanism. But their objections seem to be crescendoing amidst the recent Clinton death knells tolling amongst the media elite. Yesterday, the RNC comm shop specifically responded to the Obama camp's conference-call argument that North Carolina is up for grabs, flatly denying that the Tar Heel State and other typically red regions could possibly go blue in November. ("Typically for Obama's campaign," writes spokesman Alex Conant re: the crossover theory, "his rhetoric is completely out of touch with reality.")

And in an op-ed in today's USA Today, RNC chairman Mike Duncan cites Obama's liberal record and notes that polls show a significant percentage of crossover votes nationally AWAY from Obama's camp. (Duncan's clever verbal mashup? "McCainocrats.") But Dems are likely to point out new numbers in NC that show the percentage of self-identified GOPers dropping by as much as ten percentage points since 2004. Who's right? And how much does this ever-bubbling back-and-forth raise the stakes for Obama in May?

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Comments

Let us just imagine that Clinton convinces the superdelegates to select her by ignoring delegate counts and popular vote totals and using instead potential electoral college counting or some other creative scheme. Imagine then that in November she loses in the electoral college and loses the popular vote. What then? She could argue, I imagine, that the electoral college vote on the basis of those states where she won primary contests. After all, that makes perfect sense.

“The audacity of hopelessness.” A tip of the hat to David Brooks in the New York Times for that characterization of her relentless fuzzy math campaign.

Dan, Bronxville, NY (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 9:48 AM)

This year's election has been different in a lot of ways. Usually we have to wait until the general election to see Willie Horton adds.

Gregory Peek, Birmingham, Alabama (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 9:50 AM)

North Carolina is confusing to me, I know nothing about the State (other than hearing it praised for its beauty and its institutions of higher learning) but I say there as I say everywhere. Let them campaign, let them speak out on issues, cut the nastiness, cutout the identity politics prejudging how people will vote. Let them vote.

Re. PA. Still a lot of weeks to campaign, gotta hand it to the Obama campaign for organization. I wish I could be there (got called by Team Obama last week but had sick kids at home, may make it out there yet).

Let them campaign, let the people vote. Can we really not have nasty campaigning for a few weeks...

Woman for Obama 08

Lisa, New Britain, CT (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 9:51 AM)

Bottom line I think is that President Bush has damaged the Republican "brand" and a lot of traditionally red states are up for grabs, when the Democrats nominate someone independents and those leaning away from the Republican Party don't despise (i.e., pretty much anyone but Clinton).

Obama can compete with McCain for independents, and then we'll see the Bush effect put a lot of these states in play that hadn't been in recent cycles. Probably not South Carolina, but maybe North Carolina. Certainly Virginia. We're looking at the potential for new southern battlefields.

That said, the monster's destructive actions on the Democratic Party now have at least one congressman talking about how a brokered convention might produce a nominee other than Obama or Clinton. I think that idea might start gaining some traction.

It seems increasingly likely that Clinton's strategy is to damage Obama for the general election, thereby opening the door back up for her in 2012. But the party could respond by picking a nominee that hasn't been tainted by the touch of the Clinton - or even one that perhaps has overcome that tainting, such as Al Gore.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 9:53 AM)

"Fuzzy math" is a rather benign way to put it. Desperation bordering on downright szchizophrenia is more like it.

CitizenJ (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 9:56 AM)

What everyone needs to understand here is that the Clintons are no longer running for the 2008 Democratic nomination. They are now runnuing for the 2012 Democratic nod. They have done nothing but tell Democrats that John McCain is a better candidate for weeks now. If that isn't the deffintion of Judas, I don't know what is.

Will. Bristol, Wi (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 10:02 AM)

Listening to the 24/7 Clinton spin and hearing their changing rationalizations for why and how Hillary can still win just made me realize how similar their mindset is to that of the Bush administration.

Really. Remember back when the war was proving to be a huge mistake and all the assumptions turned out to be wrong? For ages Bush kept changing the reasons we went in and kept insisting things were going great. Does that remind anyone of what is going on with the Clinton's campaign right now?

I think it's a little scary when you want something sooooo bad you refuse to see the reality of a situation and keep changing the rules and lying to people to cover the truth. Don't we already have a president like that?

High On Change (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 10:05 AM)

Clinton spokesman Phil Singer touted an idea yesterday first floated by supporter Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh on CNN on Sunday, in which he argued that "who carried the states with the most Electoral College votes is an important factor to consider because ultimately, that's how we choose the president of the United States."
__

"I believe strongly that in a democracy, we should respect the will of the people and to me, that means it's time to do away with the Electoral College and move to the popular election of our president." - Hillary Clinton, Nov 20, 2000 in CBS interview.
__

Yet another flip flop from Hillary Clinton. Anything to win...

BL, Cincinnati OH (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 10:11 AM)

The Clinton spin is exactly that, pure spin.

The 'No Spin' version being that the DNC does NOT choose the nominee by Electoral Votes.

Sorry Hillary...

Chris, Maine (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 10:17 AM)

The constant changing of the definition of being "electable," being ahead, could only occur during a campaign for nomination/election. Any other time a person this prominent who keeps changing her perception of "reality, at the very least, would be considered eccentric if not downright delussional and certainly in need of therapy. But this is politics and an election year after all.

Ric A, San Antonio (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 10:17 AM)

Hillary knows she can't win, her goal is to destroy Obama. She rather have McCain win so she can run in 4 years because he is too old. She has displayed no loyalty to the party and has no shame.

sonya, atlanta, ga (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 10:19 AM)

WOW!!! The math may not matter. In this age of text messages and videos, it may not matter at all. The Plaintiff in the Clinton Fraud case (that she won't talk about), says he has videotape evidence that proves she "Misspoke" under oath and wants perjury charges added to the Campaign Finance Fraud charges.

Chuck, When is NBC going to begin covering the appeal of this case. Are you guys aware that a trial date is being set at a hearing 3 days after the Pennsylvania Primary? The GOP's 527 Citizen's United already has the case in thier movie "Hillary -- The Movie" They are appealing the Supreme Court Decision on the release of the movie. Where is the investigative reporting on this??? Where are the Marvin Kalb's of the world???

Tired, Dizzy and Frustrated Democrat (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 10:20 AM)

I just want to hear the candidates talk about the issues. Enough with churches and everybody's spin on what others say. Senator Obama and Senator Clinton need to get this over with. The individuals that speak for them as growing very tired and are becoming more and more aggressive with one another. I have to say I am very disappointed with Hillary at this point; in my opinion she has made this very ugly.

LeeAnn, Little Rock Arkansas (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 10:26 AM)

The fuzziest part of the math is that to get to Clinton's 219-202 Elctoral college lead, you have to count ALL of TExas' 34 delgates for her as well as the 5 for Nevada. Obama WON the most elected Democratic Delgates, the true measure of who won the primary, in BOTH of those states.

Even using the bogus Electoral Argument, if you use the true winner of each state, Obama leads.

If you are generous and give her Nevada and split Texas, since the primary and caucus split, Obama STILL leads.

Get a new calculator Penn.

turnip (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 10:29 AM)

The electoral college analysis which shows Clinton leading Obama includes Florida and Michigan on Clinton's side, a concept which is debatable at best. Take away those states and Obama leads in electoral college votes too.

Lee, Florida (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 10:33 AM)

<<Bottom line I think is that President Bush has damaged the Republican "brand" and a lot of traditionally red states are up for grabs,>>

Doubtful. Especially if the Dems nominate Obama. In that case, the south is lost, period, it will be a sea of red. Florida and Michigan, because of the way they have been treated, will go Republican, and who can blame them. Obama does poorly in Ohio and Pennsylvania and will more then likely lose those states. Even New York will be up for grabs as many Hillary supporters switch to McCain.

This could be a landslide election for the Republicans, and mostly because of the total incompetence of the Democrats.

MK Smith (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 11:02 AM)

High on Change -- Bingo! I first had that thought a while ago and once you get it in your head ("Clinton is acting just like GWB"), you start seeing confirmation of that everywhere. Does it better in some respects (e.g., the coolness and credibility of her 'imagined' trip to Bosnia is mind-blowing -- there is *nothing* to indicate that she's making it up. Like Bush, I truly think she believes her own lies.) It's so similar it's scary and YES we already have a president like that and NO we don't want more of it. As the Republicans can tell you about GWB, what the party platform or approach or philosophy is doesn't matter a bit when you have someone with the "I'm right and don't question me - or expect me to tell you" mindset.

Elizabeth (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 11:32 AM)

Have several hundred friends who register to vote in the Dem rase by the door to door in Penn but after they closed the door to the Obama people, stated they are voting for Hillary. There is a large group who worked this angle for a month. Funny Obama's people believe anyone especially Obama. They see a 67-32 at the end of the night in PA. Huge anger he went to a chuch like this and didn't walk out. They all know what their pastor or minister's views are so how could he who knows all be so uninformed.

By the way same anger in Ky, WV, NC, In, Montana and SD and PR Good luck with that run Obama.

Kathy Palm Bay Florida (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 11:32 AM)

HOW HILLARY WILL RUN THE WHITE HOUSE.. http://earlcallaway.com/corpsecount.html

TOM LAS VEGAS NV (Sent Tuesday, March 25, 2008 8:16 PM)

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