First thoughts: The tipping point
Posted: Tuesday, March 25, 2008 9:41 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
War of words: Democrats who don't have a horse in the presidential race, but do have to worry about House and Senate races are starting to wonder aloud if this protracted primary fight has hit a tipping point. Every day this goes on, they say, is bad for the party as a whole. Every day this goes on, they say, is bad for the party as a whole. Remember, there's a reason that the party that gets its nominee first has won 9 of the last 10 presidential elections. Think about the most recent and memorable primary fights for presidential nominations: Ford-Reagan; Kennedy-Carter; Mondale-Hart, not a single ultimate general-election winner. And all three, to this day, have bitter partisans who still bicker about that fight. The same thing is happening with Obama-Clinton. There's a real bitterness developing that rivals these other three examples. Check out how James Carville didn't back down from his "Judas" remark on Richardson at all. In a conference call with reporters Clinton Communications Director Howard Wolfson said, "If I had said it, I would apologize, because I am representing the campaign. I did not say it, and if I had I would." Meanwhile, the Clinton campaign is using Gen. McPeak's "McCarthy" attack on President Clinton and trying to raise money off of it.
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd talks about potential fatigue within the Democratic Party as a result of the prolonged nominating contest.
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“Misspoke?”: The Clinton campaign in a conference call yesterday said Hillary Clinton “misspoke” when she said, “I remember landing under sniper fire” during her trip to Bosnia. OK. But there are two problems. What she said was with certitude (the remarks you can find on her
Web site; those remarks on the web site, by the way, are "as delivered" not "prepared for delivery" as was mistakenly reported by one of us on TODAY). But beside that, as NBC’s Ron Allen writes, “Believe me, if you've ever been in a place where there is real sniper fire, it’s unforgettable…. As her team points out, Obama probably doesn't have very many, if any, similar experiences to talk about. But, apparently embellishing a story, or ‘misspeaking’ about it, will only lead to more questions about what Clinton really did when she was in places like Bosnia.” Or her role in the Irish peace talks or in children's health care, etc. This brings a focus back on her at a time when she'd rather see the press continue its focus on Obama. For instance, were it not for the Bosnia story, today's NYT piece on Obama's liberal record in the Senate might be the cable talker of choice.
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Women back in Focus: The last two weeks were dominated by race and yesterday, in addition to her
speech on housing, Hillary Clinton held a “
Women for Hillary” rally -- “the first such event in weeks,” notes NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones. This was something that was routine in Iowa and New Hampshire, but has faded of late. Is gender politics making a comeback? Women, particularly older women, have been the backbone of Clinton's support both at the ballot box and apparently in her bank account. Pushing the issue of gender is also a way to create a movement that is similar to what has propelled Obama. The one demographic subgroup among women that has eluded Clinton to an extent has been educated younger white women. If she can crack this code, she'll have the chance to really make up ground fast in places like North Carolina and Indiana, let alone over-perform in the Philly suburbs and potentially keep Obama's vote total lower than expected in Pennsylvania.
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Bluegrass primary? Bill Clinton campaigns hard in Kentucky today. Yes, Kentucky, which holds its primary on May 20th. Is this a sign this will go on and on and on -- even if Clinton loses Indiana or North Carolina? Clearly Kentucky is one Clinton's base states of the contests that remain and considering that the campaign still doesn't have the money to start paid advertising in Pennsylvania, let alone the May primaries, the campaign has now decided it's important to start showing up some of these places early so that Obama doesn't get the head start he's gotten in so many of these places. Bill Clinton's been used more and more as the campaign guinea pig, sending him first in some of these places to see what the response will be. He was in Indiana before his wife; he's hit North Carolina before his wife and now he'll hit Kentucky first as well.
*** Another sign of things to come? By the way, check out the added stop Hillary Clinton has made for Montana on 4/5 and 4/6. Montana is a JUNE primary state; the last day of the primary season. No doubt Clinton is sending the subtle message that she's in this race to the end. But why else would she set a Montana campaign stop two months before the primary? Is there an endorsement she's bagged that she'll unveil that day? Look for reporters to start making calls to Montana's Democratic hierarchy, all of whom would be good gets for Clinton: Gov. Schweitzer or Sens. Baucus and Tester.
*** More fun with delegate math: It's been a while since we've done the percentage game on the delegate count. Here's where things stand right now. Obama leads among pledged delegates 1408-1251; Clinton leads among superdelegates, 255-218. Added together, Obama's overall delegate lead is 120, 1626-1506. Now, what's left? There are still 10 pledged delegates NBC News hasn’t allocated from contests already held. In addition, there are 566 delegates at stake in the remaining contests. On the supers front, there are 321 folks who haven't picked sides (76 of whom have yet to be named; they'll get named at state convention meetings held between now and the end of June). OK, now, let's play the math game. If the remaining contests split up "as expected" meaning Clinton wins her base states (PA, KY, WV etc.) and Obama wins his base states (NC, OR, MT etc.) and the two split Indiana down the middle, the two campaigns will likely split those 566 delegates right down the middle 283-283 (margin of error +/- 5 delegates). This means Obama would need 34% of the uncommitted superdelegates to hit the magic 2024 number, while Clinton would need 72% of the uncommitted Supers to hit 2024.
*** Messages of the day: While Obama finishes up his vacation, both Clinton and McCain have major speeches today on two different topics. Clinton will focus on Social Security, timed for the release of the government's report on the long-term viability of the government trust fund. Word is Clinton will pop McCain on the issue; Meanwhile, McCain, fresh from Iraq, will talk about the housing/mortgage issue in a speech in California. The speech is more of a lesson in how this happened and a promise that he'll be open to some government solutions but he wants to make sure we're not bailing out speculators. Like Clinton and Obama, he calls for a summit of sorts, McCain's summit would be with the largest mortgage lenders.
*** On the trail: Clinton makes two stops in Pennsylvania, including a town hall and a meeting at the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review; McCain again raises money in California; Bill Clinton makes four stops in Kentucky; and Obama is still on vacation with his family and will be back Wednesday.
Countdown to Pennsylvania: 28 days
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 42 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 224 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 301 days
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