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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Clinton: Bill as J.R.?

Posted: Wednesday, March 26, 2008 10:04 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

Bill Clinton, campaigning in Kentucky, compared the Dem primary to an episode of the '80s prime-time soap opera, Dallas. "This is the darnedest election I ever saw, isn't it? It seems like a long-running episode of Dallas or something, it's like a saga, you know?"
 
OK, so clearly Bill is J.R., right? Is Hillary SueEllen? Is Obama, Bobby or is he Cliff Barnes? Sorry, we couldn't help ourselves.
 
On a more serious note, NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli reports Bill Clinton pushed back against those trying to nudge his wife out of the race. "Now there's a new tactic," he said. "It's to say, 'Oh what a bad sport you are for wanting to let the people of Kentucky and West Virginia and Oregon and North Carolina and Pennsylvania vote. You could get ahead in the popular vote, but you're gonna be outspent. And why don't you just pack it in and while we're at it, we're gonna disenfranchise the people in Florida and Michigan, even if it costs us the general election.’”
 
NYT's MoDowd believes HRC has now set her sights on the VP slot. "One Hillary pal said she wouldn’t want to go back to a Senate full of lawmakers who’d abandoned her for Obama. And even if she could get to be majority leader, would it be much fun working with Nancy Pelosi, whose distaste for the Clintons has led her to subtly maneuver for Obama?
 
“Maybe The Terminator is thinking: if she could just get her pump in the door. Dick Cheney, after all, was able to run the White House and the world from the vice president’s residence, calling every shot while serving under a less experienced and younger president. And Observatory Circle is just up the street from where Hillary now lives." 
 
The Clinton campaign is pushing back HARD on this idea that she doesn't have a chance. In a release last night, the campaign released three myths, two of which, had to do with her chances for the nomination:
 
MYTH: The delegate "math" works decisively against Hillary.
 
FACT: The delegate math reflects an extremely close race that either candidate can win.
 
"The Math" is actually very simple: with hundreds of delegates still uncommitted, NEITHER candidate has reached the number of delegates required to secure the nomination. And EITHER candidate can reach the required number in the coming weeks and months. That is indisputable. No amount of editorials, articles, blog posts, charts, graphs, calculations, formulas, or projections will change the basic fact that either candidate can win. Pundits who confidently proclaim that Hillary has no hope of winning because of "the math," have counted Hillary out of this race three times before. Each time they based their sober assessments on 'facts' and 'realities' -- and each time they were wrong.
 
In a campaign with dozens of unexpected twists and turns, bold prognostications should be viewed with a healthy dose of skepticism. Look no further than Sen. Obama's "full assault" on Hillary's character to judge whether he thinks this election is over. The fact is this: Hillary and Sen. Obama are locked in a very close, hard-fought campaign and Hillary is demonstrating precisely the strength of character required of a president. Her resilience in the face of adversity, her faith in the voters, her capacity to rise to every challenge, are part of the reason she is the best general election candidate for Democrats. And it is why she is increasingly strong against John McCain in the polls at the same time that Sen. Obama is dropping against Sen. McCain.
 
---
 
MYTH: For Hillary to win, super delegates must "overturn the will of the people."
 
FACT: The race is virtually tied, the "will of the people" is split, and both candidates need super delegates to win.
 
The Obama campaign and Sen. Obama's surrogates have engaged in a sustained public relations effort to convince people that the election is over and that if super delegates perform their established role of choosing a candidate who they believe will make the best nominee and president, they are somehow "overturning the will of the people." They have the audacity to make this argument while quietly and systematically courting those very same super delegates. They are courting them because they know that Sen. Obama needs super delegates to win. The Obama spin is being parroted daily by pundits, but it is patently false. The race is virtually tied; the "will of the people" is split. By virtually every measure, Hillary and Sen. Obama are neck and neck -- separated by less than 130 of the more than 3,100 delegates committed thus far and less than 1% of the 27 million+ votes cast, including Florida and Michigan. Less than 1%.
 
An incremental advantage for one candidate or the other is hardly a reason for super delegates to change the rules mid-game. Despite the Obama campaign's aggressive spin and pressure, the RULES require super delegates to exercise their best independent judgment, and that is what they will do. Even Sen. Obama's top strategist agrees they should. If not, then why don't prominent Obama endorsers like Senators Kerry (MA) and Kennedy (MA), and Governors Patrick (MA), Napolitano (AZ) and Richardson (NM) follow the will of their constituents and switch their support to Hillary? After all, she won their states. And if this is truly about the "will of the people," then Sen. Obama's short-sighted tactic to run out the clock on a revote in Florida and Michigan accomplishes exactly two things: it disenfranchises Florida and Michigan's voters; and it hurts Democrats in a general election. Apparently, for the Obama campaign, the "will of the people" is just words.
 
The Washington Post does one final fact check on the Bosnia incident and notes the campaign is not answering any more questions about the incident.
 
Clinton makes her first foray into North Carolina tomorrow. Meanwhile, Bill is, arguably, keeping a busier schedule this week than Hillary; He's got three stops in West Virginia today and five, count 'em, FIVE stops in PA tomorrow.

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Hillary could win by 80% and 2 million votes in PA.
Then where would we be??  Keep fighting Hillary.  Obama next misstep is just around the corner.  527's are working.  
Hillary as VP would assure McCain of the White House. The way she is splitting the party, you think anyone would vote for a ticket that had her on it? Penn is such a good Minister of Propaganda, he could have worked in either 1930's Berlin or pre-1950's Moscow.
HRC's lead in PA is down to 10 points.  See pollster.com.  She is down by 19 points in NC.  Any delegates she gets in PA will be eliminated by her losses in NC and Indiana.  Her advisors may be tough, but they are bad in math.
Hillary's campaign for President has been over for at least a month now.   It is time that she should think about the Party and not solely herself.
Hillary as VP? Obama would have to sleep with one eye open and have SS protection flanking him anytime Hillary was around. And does anyone see Bill as the co-Vice President? Maybe Barack can appoint Hillary to be some kind of ambassador. Maybe to something that fits her personality, like to Iceland.
Obama is closing the gap in PA. She needs to drop out NOW.....if not now, then after her tax returns are released....if not then, after the earmarks are released (which she's proud of).....if not then, after she recovers from the sniper incident. Who cares? She's not going to win and needs to concede (I was going to say graciously, but we all know that's not possible).
No matter what happens in the Democratic nomination race, the Clintons' are finished whether it comes now or in November.  The Democrats had better start thinking about a general election ticket of Gore/Obama which would be unbeatable..... it not only moves the Clintons out of the picture, it brings the supporters of Hill-Bill who have reservations with Barack Obama into the fold while not alienating the newcomers who have come to the Democratic Party because of the talents of Senator Obama.  
Dowd is right on the mark, and all the hacks that are paraded through cable "news" shows know it. Chris Mathews touched on it on monday's show, asking what would Clinton's 2nd choice outcome be, should she not get the nomination? The answer... a McCain victory. Oh and just an observation on how ALL the networks this morning lead with Clinton "forcing" Rev. Wright back into the forefront (instead of Bosnia LIES). Yeah, against your will,right?
Riiiight. She'll get 80% of the vote in Pennsylvania.  She hasn't won ANY state by that margin.  Not her home state of Illinois, not her adopted state of Arkansas, nor the state where she sits in the senate, New York. In fact the highest percentage of the vote in any state she obtained was 70% in Arkansas (Obama's highest winning percentage was 80% in Idaho). So she hasn't won by that great a margin even in the place where she has the most support! Why on earth would anyone think she could get a landslide in Pennsylvania where he is clearly well recieved in the northeastern (i.e. most populous) part of the state????  Some of these Clinton supporters are really ridiculous...
once again, obama did not disenfranchise any voter, the dnc and the politicians of florida and michigan done that, give it a rest already
What about the states that do not tabulate nor submit popular votes like Nevada and Iowa?   How do they figure in this?
The Clinton's ENTIRE life has been a soap opera - - one that I have no desire to see reruns for the next 4 years! They need to go away and continue to make shady business dealing and leave the country in Obama's hands! Go Barack!
Thanks Dems. You elected my candidate the next President of the United States. Whoever comes out from your mud-fight you be so destroyed, and so hated by half of this country, that Big Mac will have a very easy task. Besides that, your struggle just made easier for us to get majority on the House and on the Senate back. Nobody will vote Dems anymore, after all the dirt papa and mama Clinton are throwing into the fan... Well, what would be the hardest election in years, became the easiest, thanks to you Dems!!! GOP ruling the house and Big Mac President 2008!!!
How do educated people continue to support Hillary; the Bosnia story is so sad there is no way she did not know she was lying! How do you trust someone that looks everyone in the eye and lies. "I did not have sex with that women," "we were running and ducking"; Man! I tell you as a viet nam vet that sets me off. There are those of us that had to really do that for our country; who the HELL is she! Her husband avoided the draft; both of them are cowards- patriots Huh! Bogus go smoke some more of that stuff and take your friend Carvalle judas with you.
I totally agree with the statement in this First Read Blog, "And if this is truely about the "will of the people,"  then senator Obama's short sighted tactic to run out the clock on a re-vote in Florida & Michigan accomplishes two things, " it disenfrancises Florida & Michigan Voters; and it hurts Dems in the General Election.  APPARENTLY, for the Obama Campaign, the "will of the people, "is just Words".
Everytime I read something from The Clinton Campaign it makes me feel sick.  That is my reaction to their shenanigans, spin and bold face lies.
Hillary is Sue Ellen, Obama is Bobby, Michelle is Pamela. And McCain is Cliff Barnes....
I am tired of these sissy white men calling for Hillary to step down---for the good of the party.Went to a political meeting last night and most of them are very angry with the remarks that the media makes---4 out of 5 said they would not vote for Obama regardless if he is given the nomination or not.They are most apalled at his sitting and listening with his daughters to this racist hate speech and feel that he too is a racist.
Hillary will forever be known as the schorched earth candidate that can only think about herself when John McCain is sworn in as President. She and Nader can cry into their champagne as they watch the country spiral into the early 1900's.

I wish the whole country would gather together (at least all of those who care anything about this particular race) and beg, plead, whatever it takes, to get Obama and Clinton to work together.  I don't care at this point which of them is in charge, I just want the fighting to stop, and for the case to start being made against McCain.  There is so much there, it will be an easy case to make.  I have a hard time putting much credit into Obama's ability's as a peace maker and Hillary's love for the nation, not to mention all of the movers and shakers of the party, when this stupid fighting has gone on for so long!
I am from Pennsylvania, live in the Philadelphia suburbs and I have to disappoint you Dee. She is not going to win Pennsylvania by 80% or 60% maybe not even 50% because there are Obama signs up in this Republican suburb.
Go Hillary.  I am tired of Obama clan's double talking, nasty, and divisive campaign.  This man needs to learn and has no judgment evident in his alignment with his Pastor.  Shame on Kerry, Kennedy, and Janet and Richardson, and Pelosi!  They apparently lack the judgment for the american people.  If Obama gets the nomination, I hope Hillary run as independent candidate since the Obama dubbed "Washington insiders" and "people from the past" are working with Obama rather than American people.  If Hillary does not run, I hope people vote for McCain, who at least we know where his heart is.
even if hill wins pennsylvania by 80%, she'll only pick up a handful of delegates. She is behind Obama by nearly 200 already, and making up that much ground would require all of obama's supporters to abandon him in droves from here on out. Hah, not likely.

HRC needs to put her aspirations and her campaign aside, but she never will, and in a way she has the right not to concede. But no matter how she spins it, "the math" is not in her favor. But hey, miracleshappen, keep spinning Rumplestiltskin.

OBAMA '08

MSNBC seems to be unable to report events without putting spin in their reportage like those loons at FOX.  Can't you just tell us what happened without having some staffer inject so much of the media's opinion.  If you make us angry we stop listening. Please emphasize how you are different from FOX.  Don't become like them.
Why is everyone so indifferent to the remaining elections?  Obama doesn't have the required pledged delegates to win.  Talk about negative, the blue dress comment and asking Chelsea about Monica are the lowest.  Maybe Obama planted someone to get Chelsea off the trail?  That would be the "top of the news" if the tables were turned.  Look at how fast Obama had to backtrack about his passport info being accessed.  They were all for blaming Clinton, yet his campaign's negativity is given little attention.  Ever hear the expression "be careful what you ask God for, you may get it".  I'm afraid we're going to have to live with Mr. Obama's ego for generations, and probably later than sooner we'll find that out.
Let's put this plain and simple Hillary and Bill will do whatever it take to win it does not matter, but you can not hood wink the general public we do not like to be lied to over and over again.
I think this is a simple issue.  Let all the voters have their say.  At the end of the primary season the candidate that has the most popular votes, and delegates should be the nominee.  It's to early to say who that will be.

Should we not allow all voters to have the opportunity to vote.  Stop calling for either candidate to "drop out" and give the system time.  

That is how the party will unify, not by forcing one candidate out.
Hang in there Hillary.  By the time your finished there wont be a democratic party and your political aspirations will be over.

In fact, I think you're blundering enough that even Chelsea won't be able to fulfill your dreams when its her "turn" to run.
Plain fact: Jeremiah Wright is a racist, and Obama has stayed at that Church. There is no way he can win against McCain. Case closed.
Those bloggers who still refer to the Wright speeches as being "racist" surely have not reviewed the speeches.  Many of Wright's words and phrases were actually gleaned from a "white" ambassador who was making a speech on American foreign policy.  And Wright gave him credit.  Will you continue your ignorance or do you want to be an educated voter and make a decision based on facts, not media sound bites and definitley not what comes out of campaigns with the amount of spinning and lying, ooops I mean mis-speaking that occurs. Also know that games including politics have rules and the rules were set before the legislatures in MI and FL changed the primary dates with full awareness of the consequences.  Of interest is that both states have Republican contgrolled legislators and Fl also has a Repub. governor.  HRC had no problems accepting those rules initially and Harold Ickes from her campaign was on the committee that set the penalties for the infractions.  Now that she is behind, she wants to change the rules to suit her and she is going to blame Obama for agreeing to follow the rules.  I don't think we need anyone in the White House who makes and bends rules to fit his/her political desires at the moment.  Been there, done that, got the weakened Constitution.  
This is a fair enough article but I'm pretty sick of people bringing up the Obama supers whose states were won by Clinton when there are any number of Clinton supers whose states were won by Obama (think Washington state).   Anyway, of course the people inside the system think it is o.k. to "exercise" their own judgement but that doesn't mean that voters have to be O.K. with it.  I'm not O.K. with it at all. I think the popular vote should always outshine all these silly rules of state by state and supers and whatnot and the candidates electability be damned.  Voters have to get over thinking like amateur party pollsters and pick the person they like and then work as hard as they can to see that they win.  Otherwise voters should be quite about how much they dislike congress since all these people were clearly electable. We can't have these crazy "electable or not electable" arguments and then running around moralizing to the world about democracy.  Anyway, if all people really cared about was who could win then George Bush would be basking in popularity since he stole an election, won an election, and, until the last month or so, has gotten almost everything he has wanted. Democrats always talk about McGovern like they want to avoid that while people forget the "winner" Nixon had to leave the office in disgrace after creating this beast of the imperial presidency. Winning just to winning does nothing to help democracy and I don't see that these supers have any special powers to help them make up their minds.
HRC is a spoiled kid. If she can't have it then no one can. She and her husband are out to prove a point that they are in charge,damn the rest of the Democratic Party, damn the world.
How come when a few ex-servicemen made up some stories about being in combat or in the same kind of dangerous situations and the media found out about it being a lie, they are prosecuted? HRC tells a super lie and gets to pass it off with a Ha-Ha and oh well I'm only human!
Once Hillary wins in Pennsyvania by less then 10% she will hopefully realize that for her this election is over and withdraw. If she really is looking at the VP spot she is kidding herself...nobody would have her as their VP. I think that Obama has several good choices for VP including Bill Richardson, John Kerry, Al Gore and Nancy Palosi.
John McCain would be well advised to consider either Colin Powell, Condolezza Rice, or General Swartzcoff.

Hilary, please for once in your life show some class and withdraw...then help your party put itself back together again and help Obama get elected.





A female can be elected in this country just like they did in Argentina. The women in that country knew what they wanted and voted that way. The women in this country should do the same. Vote a woman president. Why should men get elected all the time.
To compare Bill Clinton to J.R. Ewing is to demean and insult J.R. Bill Clinton, for one, has no sense of family dignity -- which was J.R.'s backbone. The weakness of J.R. was that he stooped to nothing in an effort to live up to his daddy's legacy. Bill Clinton, on the other hand, is a common crook, liar, and opportunist. Anyone that voted for him and supports that vote is in a profound state of denial. Fact is, and deep down they know it, voting for Billary was a huge, profound mistake. Don't make the same mistake for the third time.
No way will Hillary Clinton be a VP for Barack Obama. She will be the President, or go back to the Senate where she can control the flow of proposed legislation and block Obama's 3rd grade level of expertise in the matter. But that is neither here nor there, cause if Obama wins the nomination, McCain wins the election.
I was an Obama voter is the great state of Wisconsin; but I regret my vote, and so do many others.  And that is why Hillary needs to stay in--what else are we going to learn too late??  Obama has lots of dirty laundry; we just don't know about it yet. He is showing his true colors; His "great" speech was purely political, when it could have been so much more. He for sure did not explain to me why he would choose this church for his daughters--children are very impressionable--and no child should EVER hear the things this man said--NEVER!! As parents, he and his wife should be ashamed!!!!!! And he lost all of my respect for that alone!!  
Noone who has been shot at, as Hillary asserts she was in Bosnia, could not remember it as clearly as any moment in her life.  To say that she "misspoke" is simply not credible.  She flat out lied and America knows it.  Lying is second natured to the Clintons.  "I did not have sex with that woman--Ms.Lewinsky" is forever burned into America's memory.  This,too, will be part of the Clinton Legacy. Obama is my choice.
Right now, this is both the time and the opportunity for all of those young democrats coming into their own power (young mayors, governors, senators, congressmen and women etc) to take a long hard look at the Democratic Party former and future structure and get on the side of progressiveness. No doubt their loyalties are being split right now, but Obama and the new breed of Democratic are the future of the party. No amount of senseless flailing about and last gasps of political life by the Clintons is going to change that.
Clinton's time is over & the party needs to rally around Barack.  He's going to be an inspirational president and elevate the discord in this country.  We don't need more of the Clinton machine & their lie tactics. Maybe Bill, Hillary & Chelsea should move to Bosnia!
Hill, desperation is a disease and it's seriously catching up with you. Humbly bow out of the race and let Obama unite the DNC party and carry you and your little supporters along, else you will be shamed out of the race and the effect will be you losing for life the little political clout you've got. Changing the rules to suit you will not help matters.
Has anyone considered Hillary's verbal blunder in relation to her well-known 3am ad?   In downplaying the account of her arrival in Bosnia, she indicated that she had been sleep-deprived.   Hmmm....how does that statment make us feel comfortable with an emergency call to the White House at 3am??   Would a midnight crisis have the response of a clear head, or oops....someone who is now sleep-deprived?
You Clintonistas are really funny.  You continue to say that it's Obama who is going negative when it is patently not true, continue to ignore the facts about Rezko (it has been conclusively shown he had done nothing wrong), are still 'waiting for him to answer about Wright' when all you need to do is reasd his speech to know that he has, excuse a liar and potential cheat (Bosnia, trying to get pledged delegates to vote for her) or say that Hillary should be voted for because she is a woman.

Every chance she gets, she questions Obama's judgement, honesty, ability to lead and motives rather than his positions on issues.  It's all personal attacks from Billary while Obama tries to address the issues and has always said nice things about her on a personal level.

Get a grip.  Think about it.  If there was some huge damning incident about Obama that would knock him out of the race, it would have already come out by now - Billary would have seen to that.  Obama getting a free ride from the press?  Give me a break, what about Peter Paul, what about Hillary's relationship with 'The Family' (which is NOT simply a religious group but a group focused on gaining as much political power as they can), what about her lies about Bosnia and NAFTA?  If anyone has gotten a free ride, it's Billary.

I guess it's asking too much to ask that the Clintonistas actually research, read and think before posting their nasty and untrue comments about Obama.  There is a reason he is getting more of the educated vote than Clinton and it's pretty obvious from some of her supporters comments here.
I think hrc thought the nomination was hers ,she and bill are very surprised she is so far back.If they are depending on pennsylvania she may be shocked we are not voting for her as she and rendell saying she will get 95% of the vote.God help us if we give that to her.
I don't blame Hillary for fighting as hard as she can; that is her job and  what her supporters and campaign staff expect of its leader. I blame the lack of grown-up leadership in the Democratic party for sitting on their hands. Someone needs to step in, put an arm around the Clinton campaign's shoulders and tell them what we all know: It IS over for them. They cannot win, and continuing the mud bath is damaging to the party, as the responses in this thread demonstrate. This is what superdelegates are supposed to do--protect the party. Richardson made a very courageous move, and where are the others? I am not anti-Hillary; I was even leaning toward her at the beginning of the primary season. but it is over, and someone has got to tell her.
BK, Cambridge, MA
Let's see... Hillary has as her spritual advisor and a part of her campaign a person who purports hatred towards blacks and towards america; she then makes a remark about a "typical black person"; she chooses to take her very young daughter to a church that shouts hatred towards blacks from the pulpit; she then excuses all of this because the minister is her "family"----now all of you who have left comments here, please reflect and honestly respond to just this scenario, if you can....leave everything out, except your hatred for her, and then add this "make believe"to it.  It would not matter how many "kiss up" speeches she made, she would quite literally be crucified.  HATE,HATE,HATE.....what I read here is worse than what some people feel about Rev. Wright. Democrats are racist; they are intollerant; none of what Obama gets away with would be tolerated if Hillary did the same thing.  THINK about this!!!!!
The math being "simple" as stated in the article is not
counting probability statistics.  The probability of an event that is impossible is 0.  The probability of an event that is certain is 1.  So, the probability of Clinton winning the remaining States by the margin she would need just to catch up to Obama is 0 unless something highly catastrophic happens to the Obama campaign.

I'm guessing that the 'kitchen sink' strategy is about creating that catastrophy to increase the Probability of increasing Clinton's popular vote.  But so far, while kitchen-sinking may have brought Clinton some votes, it's enraged most Obama voters, thus lowering the probability of us voting for her even if she destroys the Obama campaign.  

When I'm working with kids, I call this "cutting off your nose to spite your face".  The ultimate problem with it is that it doesn't work.
I have to agree that the math has either one winning. That is just math with nothing else taken into account.  What needs to get taken into account also is how people view the number of victories, the total number of votes cast, were the primaries open to just Democrat or to all, who has received which endorsements and by whom.  To say that this is just math is plain silly and simplistic.  
Bill Clinton has so many campaign stops, you gotta wonder - who exactly is running for President?  America is not ready to be run by a First Husband - it is certainly not supported by the Constitution.


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