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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Clinton's Indiana expectations game

Posted: Friday, March 28, 2008 2:16 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

From NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones
MISHAWAKA, Ind. -- Let the expectations game begin.

As Hillary Clinton kicked off a long day of campaigning in the Hoosier State Friday, her campaign painted the fight here as an uphill struggle.

State director Robby Mook cited a statewide Howey-Gauge poll, showing Clinton running behind Obama and said that was partly due to his being from a neighboring state. The most recent Howey-Gauge poll found, taken in mid-February, showed Obama leading by 15 points.

Still, Mook said the campaign was active in every congressional district and would be announcing new office openings in the coming days. Clinton is set to hold a press conference in Hammond, Ind., this afternoon to announce the endorsement of seven mayors from cities in the Western part of the state, bordering the Chicago media market, an area seen as favorable to Obama. None of the mayors are superdelegates.


Clinton, who trails Obama in pledged delegates, the popular vote and the number of states won, needs to do well in the remaining contests to bolster her argument that having won several of the biggest states and most recent states, she will be more electable. For at least the third time this week, the New York senator referred this morning to calls from some for her to drop out of the race, this time citing a poll by Rasmussen, an organization that does not use the preferred telephone interview survey method. 

"There are some people who are saying, you know, 'We really ought to end this primary. We just ought to shut it down,'” she said to shouts of “No” from the crowd. “ ‘There was a poll the other day that said 22 percent of Democrats wanted me to drop out and 22 percent wanted Sen. Obama to drop out and 62 percent said let people vote until we finally know what the outcome is."

(Note that 22 plus 22 plus 62 equals 106 percent.)

Vermont Sen. Patrick Leahy, who supports Obama, said in an interview today with Vermont Public Radio that Clinton “ought to withdraw” because she could not win enough delegates to win the nomination.

The swing through Indiana is part of a six-day tour focusing on the economy. It is designed to show Clinton is best prepared to manage the economy and deal with an economic crisis.

She spoke about manufacturing jobs at Mishawaka High School, hailing Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, a Clinton supporter, for the work he has done to help create jobs. She said she saw Indiana not as part of the Rust Belt but as a chance to build what she called a Manufacturing Belt and an Opportunity Belt. It was the kind of language she used while campaigning in economically depressed Ohio.

Clinton, who is campaigning today with "Rudy," actor Sean Astin (from movies like “The Goonies,” “The Lord of the Rings” and “Rudy”) also touched on her commitment to “fixing” NAFTA and to getting tough on China for manipulating its currency and for sending lead-based toys, contaminated pet food and other goods to America.

“We’ve got to stand up and say no more. We’re not going to put up with that. We’re going to stand up for American workers and American consumers,” she said to loud cheers and applause from the crowd in the packed gym.

The former first lady also made a point of talking about what she described as the good times of the 1990s, when millions of jobs were created and more people were given a chance at a middle class lifestyle, she said.

"We had so many people who were enjoying the benefits of what turned out to be the greatest economic opportunity we’ve had in a very long time,” she said. “We saw the typical American and Indiana family, seeing a gain of about $7,000 in income and, of course, there was a balanced budget and a surplus.”

The senator spoke for about 35 minutes and took questions for another 15 minutes.

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Comments

Hillary is good with policy and fighting to get what she wants.  She is not someone who can inspire and lead the American people.  She would not be a great president.  

What she would be is a great Senate Majority Leader.  Someone who can fight to get things done.  Someone who is detailed and policy orientated.  She'd have a far better chance of getting a Health Care plan and other plans pushed through as Senate Majority Leader, with Obama as President.

Obama would be better leading and inspiring the public and repairing our image around the world, Clinton would not. Clinton would be better leading the Senate getting policy passed and fighting for that policy.  A VP slot would not be as powerful of a position as the Senate Majority Leader.  We're better off with a VP that is a foreign relations person like Biden or Richardson.

Imagine this.  Take whatever initiative you want.  Health care, SS reform, etc.  Imagine President Obama getting people inspired to support it, and Sen. Maj Leader Clinton fighting in the Senate to get it passed.

Best of both worlds.  Maybe something will actually get done for a change with both of them in charge.
Now its, while First Lady, she created jobs, balanced the budget and created a surplus. WOW  Where was Bill?

Bob, Chicago
I know you people are obsessed with the  "horse race" in the Dem primaries, but don't you think it might be time to say something about Iraq. While McCain, Cheney, and  Bush have been proclaiming for months that the surge is working, it's really only been smoldering. Now it has burst into flames once again. Don't you think that might have some sort of impact on the horse race.  McCain's horse looks pretty lame.
Ah, the spin. So Clinton shouldn't do well in Indiana because it neighbors Illinois.

But if she wins Pennsylvania, it will be because she's more electable and have nothing to do with the commonwealth bordering New York, right?

I think that camp just thrives on insulting our intelligence.
NOTE ALSO: Rasmussen has Obama re-taking the lead for the first time today in a head-to-head with Clinton.  So, not such a good thing for Clinton to cite....
The Democrats are split on two very weak candidates. I bet they wish they could have a total do over and find some competent people to run. The Democrats were in a huge hurry to start the election process, haven't Clinton and Obama been running for well over a year now? Now they're in a big hurry to end it. Too bad, that's not happening anytime soon.
Senator Clinton, as one of your staunchest supporters, I'm exhausted.  Please end this.  We need a democrat in the White House this fall!
This has nothing to do with Indiana being a bordering state to Illinois. If she were ahead she could spin the fact that she was "from" Illinois, just like she does Arkansas, New York, and Washington. She's BEHIND in Indiana because people are tired of the "old" politics and ready for the change that Obama can bring. He's just out-campaigned her. Period. Simple as that.
Chuck Todd nailed it again with his piece today on why Hillary should not quit yet.  There is strong evidence that the primary race is preparing Obama for what should be a "smell of napalm in the morning" general election.

He needs what she is giving him.

Until her donors and supporters get onto this game, it is a great deal for Obama and the Democratic Party.

Of course the Clinton people will get screwed, but they are used to it.

I couldn't agree with your more Marshall.  The longer it goes on , the harder it is for me to see either of these candidates beating McCain.
One thing that was stated in the article that is incorrect is that Obama leads in the total vote.  He only leads if you leave out Florida and Michigan, but they will vote in November, so they won't be left out.  Even if you give Obama all the uncommitted's from Michigan which he wouldn't have won since some of those would have voted for Edwards,  he still trails Hillary by 7,600 votes.  Curiously, the media doesn't point this out.  Is it because the media have become Obambi's as well?
I'm glad the party is now united in pushing her out of the race that she is losing.
How could she be behind when Evan Bayh is suppoerting her? I may be mistaken, but I thought I heard as part of the announcement that she would be appearing in Indiana that she and Evan Bayh, as her VP, would be a formidable team in the fall general election. I didn't know that she picked him to be her VP.

Also, is she telling the people of Indiana that she worked towards getting NAFTA passed? Or is this something else that someone else did, but she will fix up?
I do not want to see Hillary drop out. She ought to keep pushing and stay in this race.  My thoughts... Two months ago I said my vote is for Hillary, but if the choices are between Obama and McCain, I would vote for Obama. A democrate will be better than a republican. TODAY I say, if my choice is Obama or McCain, I will not vote come Nov.
FIXING NAFTA????   Maybe if she had not voted for it in the first place and then publicly praise  it she wouldn't have to say she's going to fix it.



This time it's because he's from the neighboring state.  Before it's been because there's a large black population or a higher educated area.  What it comes down to Mrs. Clinton is that Senator Obama is the best candidate to start reversing eight years of dum dum "W".  McCain must be beaten.  Vote Obama Indiana.
There she goes again trying to take credit for only the positive aspects of the 90's.  You know you were behind NAFTA and your only limited opposition to it was because the timing interfered with your failed healthcare plan.
I just read an interesting article http://www.suntimes.com/news/sneed/865494,CST-NWS-SNEED28.article
Her campaign may very well be going broke so maybe this desperation that she has shown lately could be a ploy to scare up a few more donations to ease her money woes.  Maybe money problems will knock her out of the race and allow Sen. Obama to focus on the General Election.  But knowing Hillary, maybe it's just wishful thinking.
As far as I know" & "he wouldn't be my pastor" are the childish & negative inuendos American voters are getting tired of.Go back to NYC HRC, you're days are numbered.Her negative sarcasm would have been more useful during Bill's embarassing affairs or even better MCBush's nonsense about the economy.Instead she applies those against the probable democratic nominee for the Republican attack machine to use.You weren't prepared for caucuses, you've had to make a loan to the campaign, you're praising John McCain,& padded your resume.So to prevent any further embarassment to your campaign, & the democratic party as a whole,I'm sending a message to HRC to concede, since the superdelegate's won't!
---
The latest polls indicate that HILAARY'S NEGATIVE NUMBERS ARE RISING since the media exposing of her false claims.
.
OBAMA is considered TWICE AS HONEST as Hillary.
.
Hillary's recent explanations of her MISSPEAKS about her foreign policy experience and her long history --- is catching up with her. ... (Who was it that said 'you can fool some of the people some of the time, etc.)?
.
Also her JUDGMENT is being questioned about her taking her then fifteen year old daughter into a potentially "dangerous" WAR ZONE for publicity
purposes.
----------------------------------
Patty,
  Even though we are do not agree on much I do agree with you on this. I think if Hillary and Barack were not both strong candidates it would have been over in March. The Democratic party is lucky to have them both in it and we need to remember that. Come Nov. we will win the House and Senate by even larger majorities and have a Democrat in the White House then we can start to fix this country. But only if we fix our Party 1st. remember if we did not support the party we would have been cheering for McCain all along.

I love the China reference. Guess who gave China favored nation trading status making it easier for them to ship us tainted goods and take manufacturing jobs? Oh, that's right, the Clintons, and while she'll take credit for balancing the budget she'll have "always been a critic behind the scenes" of that just like NAFTA.
I don't have a problem with the race going until June. I am an Obama supporter, but I don't think that Hillary should drop out. That said, I do think that the candidates should focus on the issues and stop tearing eachother down (and building McCain up...BILL).  

Here is why...

The Dems are seeing a huge surge in Democratic registration and voting in each state where they campaign. Each state get to know these two phenominal leaders. And they should treat each other as such - two phenominal people with different strengths.

Hillary is really good on Policy - she knows it in detail and comes up with brilliant, common sense solutions to problems facing this nation.

Obama is also great on Policy - but he has something which Hillary does not have in the same measure - the ability to inspire grassroots action on an enormous scale.

My opinion: The dream outcome for the Dems is Obama Presidency with Clinton as the Senate majority leader. After all, laws are crafted in the Senate and the House - they are the legislative body in our government...

Hillary's abilities are best used as a Senator, she is brilliant in that capacity. And she will probably be one of the best, most historic figures the Senate has ever seen.

If Obama leads the ticket, the down ticket candidates (Congresswomen/men and Senators)have a better chance as well - this would give Obama, Clinton, and Pelosi the strong majorities in Congress that they need to effect the change of which they speak. And Obama is the best spokesman for that change, he is the best one lead here, precisely because he is an inspirational figure.

The Dems need to stop the in-fighting and look ahead. We have an extraordinary opportunity here. Even if Hillary does not win the nomination, she will not be any less important in the future of this country.
I'm ready for this to be over,
  Remember this does not include people that went to a caucus in states that have them. So you have to balance all of it out popular vote and states won to have a fair mix. Also how many Obama supporters did not show up to vote in Mich. cause his name was not on the ballot. I keep hearing the Clinton camp talk about being fair so lets make sure we are to both sides not just her's.
Please keep in mind, people, that the electorate in general has a mind span of about three days, so what is going on today between Clinton and Obama will be ancient history by November.  The question will be, which of these two candidates can defeat McCain in November.  The race is a dead heat.  A number of states have yet to vote.  Let them vote.  Calm down.  Let the process work itself out.
I'm looking forward to going to Indiana to knock on some doors for Senator Obama. I'm glad that our neighboring state has an opportunity to put Senator Obama on his way to the nomination and to the presidency.

I see here that most of our posters are of the opinion that Hillary should get out now.

Friends, welcome to Reality:  She is already out.

The primary is over except for her whimpering and pathetic pleas to give her another chance.  She can take Pennsylvania and Obama folks know that, but they are just having fun with her at her own great expense.

Every day she stays in she appears more ridiculous.  

While it is true that she is hurting him a bit, Obama isn't losing anyone who wouldn't have faded with Der Bombenmeister's first offensive volley in the general election.

Barrack is getting tougher and more savvy as he watches Hillary, Bill, and Chelsea take their wild, desperate, swings.

He has some primary money to spend and he is going to spend it a little more wisely than Alfred E. Neuman spent his "political capital" in 2004.

(BTW, Obam is storing up the high grade napalm for the big dance... Old Uncle John better learn how to duck and cover!)

Watch the bouncing ball... Hillary has been done for at least 10 days and everyone in the zone knows it.

Right Chuck?


Rob, the race is a dead heat? Must be more of that Clinton math. I have Obama with a 7 percent lead in pledged delegates, meaning there's simply not enough race left for Clinton to catch up.

The percentage drops some when looking at total delegates, but still the chances of her coming out on top are mathematically slim, even assuming the super delegates aren't squeamish about over-turning the direction pointed to by the pledged delegates.
1711 is the new 2025

Ok, just did the math on this.  if Florida and Michigan are not seated, that is a total of 314 Delegates that are not included in the total Delegate count of 2025.  That leaves the total (including Supers) with 1711.

Currently Obama has a total of 1629 and Hillary has 1554.  That is 126 Difference.  It also means that Barack is 82 Delegates away from 1711 and Hillary is 205.

After Penn, let's assume that Obama gets 63 Delegates conservatively.  He is then 19 Superdelegates away from 1711.  He could, based on the current scenario have met the limit of Delegates needed to win the nomination.

Well, let's just say that 314 from FL and Mich are included and it jumps back up to 2025.  If it is evenly split (50/50), Barack is then 239 from 2025 but Hillary is 362.  It makes it worse for her.

Let's make 1711 the new number, Barack will hit it after Penn and a couple SD's.  Call it a day.  Seat Mich and FL so they can be at the convention and have Barack start to campaign against McBush.

Stop the madness.  1711!
Jay from PA: Hillary did not vote for NAFTA. She was First Lady at the time. Numerous White House insiders have stated that she was opposed to NAFTA and argued against it. (Let's also remember that the treaty was originally negotiated by Papa Bush). However, once the decision was made to go ahead with it there was no way that, as First Lady, she could have opposed its passage. After all, do we really know what Laura Bush thinks about anything at all?
Throughout her campaign, Sen Clinton has said that NAFTA did not turn out as people had hoped, that it needs to be renegotiated and that, indeed, there should be a moratorium on trade agreements.
Paul, when this is all done, they'll be so close to dead even that it's going to be meaningless.  Obama supporters want this to end now because they don't want the rest of the states to vote.  I'm against short-cutting the process when the two candidates are so close.  I would also add that if we Democrats had the same way of counting delegates as the GOP does, and as the Electoral College does, Clinton would be our nominee NOW.  Obama would be toast.
Why should Democrats elect Obama when he's got SERIOUS problems with ethnic white males, Hispanics, Jews, and older white females?  
I figure it will be pretty much over May 6.  Circled on my calendar early on - expect Omaba to take both NC and IN on that day.

The word in Indiana was that when Evan Bayh got out of race and said nice things about Hillary that he would be selected as the VP candidate.  He made a good governor, but probably suffers his fathers (Birch) fate on the national level.
The Democrats are split on two very weak candidates. I bet they wish they could have a total do over and find some competent people to run. The Democrats were in a huge hurry to start the election process, haven't Clinton and Obama been running for well over a year now? Now they're in a big hurry to end it. Too bad, that's not happening anytime soon.
Marshall Reuts, Calsbury, CT (Sent Friday, March 28, 2008 2:30 PM)
--------------
The one that got away for us - Mark Warner, former and extremely popular gov. of VA. He's now running for senate [and will win], and sometime ago, announced he would not run for pres. If he did, he would have been the perfect unbeatable candidate!
Hillary's mis-speak about Bosnia caused voters to pause and reflect on Wild Bill and his mis-speak and think: Do we really want more of the Billary's parsing words.

Think for moment about one of the debates when Tim Russet asked her about her promise to bring jobs to upstate NY. Her response, "I would have, if the right President was elected." In her campaign for the NY Senate seat, she didn't qualify her pledge with "the right President."  

She and Wild Bill have a problem with the truth, and they always make sure the leave an opening - like "it all depends how you define the word "is"."

She has no precedent to stand upon that makes her credible in taking credit for the economy in the '90's. After-all, she spent her eight years as first lady, failing her health care assignment. An assignment I believed, and dearly hoped she would succeed with, as my young family had none.

Just because she claims it, does not make it so. Where is the proof supporting this?  Senator Clinton has lost all likelihood of being trusted by many of us, whom she apparently believes don't have common sense.

Pulling for Obama '08
I have a legitimate respectful question for Clinton supporters: Does it worry you at all to entrust the economy leadership role to someone whose campaign has so dramatically mismanaged their money and is long overdue in paying their bills to the hardworking Americans she claims to be "fighting for?"  This is a legit question. Please answer it directly rather than just insulting Obama.
Bill Clinton made Monica rich exploiting her services in public and denying he inhaled. What is Hilliary planning to do for an encore? She has wasted enough of our time in Indiana as well as the rest of the Nation

Hurray For Obama
Paul, when this is all done, they'll be so close to dead even that it's going to be meaningless. Rob in NV (Sent Friday, March 28, 2008 3:31 PM):

Rob:

Neutral experts say that Obama will most likely be up by 170-200 delegates (pledge and super) by the time of the convention. And that is with Hillary winning PA and West Virgina, with Michigan and Florida being counted, and given that the rest of the state primaries split fairly even betwwen the two. Sorry, but a 170-200 delegate lead is not close in my estimation.    
This is so funny. The Clintons are gags!  Don't you know that if the situation was reversed, she and her entourage would be  hardballing Obama to quit.  If he even suggested that the delegates change their minds and support him,  she and Bill  would bring out the flame throwers and/or lob a hand grenade at him.  Ha.
Suppose that her pledged delegates decide that in THEIR WISE CONSCIENCE, to support Obama, she would threaten them with purple kool-aid.  My question is "Why is everyone so intimidated by these clowns?"  I would appreciate your opinion.  Thanks.
There is precious little difference between the actual policy planks of Obama and Clinton.  There is, however a great need for inspiration in this country, so as someone who first supported Clinton, it is clear to me that the best thing for this country is Obama.  One post mentioned a lead in the "total vote" for Clinton if you include FL and MI.  Having checked those numbers(real clear politics website), it appears to me to be untrue.  Even if you add the popular votes of FL and MI, Obama maintains a slight lead.  And considering he did not appear on the ballot in MI, that appears to further prove the fact that he has a daunting lead.  Please, do not let passion for a single canidate distract you from the greater good.  When November rolls around, we desperately need the Dem Nominee to pick up the kitchen sink and start cleaning up the mess the Rep have created for us.   "If all men were angels, no government would be necessary."  James Madison/Alexander Hamilton 1788.
She's going to lose Indiana, she's going to lose North Carolina and she's going to lose the nomination.  Start accepting that fact Clintonistas.
HILLARY 2012 ! ! ! !
Of course the Obama supporters want the race to end now so they don’t have to go through another defeat in the BIG state of PA.

They are still sucking on the sour grapes from their defeats in the BIG states of OH and TX (Not to mention CA, NY, NJ, MA. FL, etc).

But if their boy could have managed to win some BIG states, this race would be over

But he didn’t so it’s not…..

Hillary or Nobody in 08 (no vote, no financial contributions, no volunteer work for anybody except Hillary)
If I lived in Indiana I would not vote for Hillary. She said that the voters from the BIG states are the only ones that are valuable. What a hypocrite!!

Go Obama 2008!!!

American is ready for an honest leader........oops had to dunk the incoming sniper fires.....haha
C.A.:

Neutral experts say that Obama will most likely be up by 170-200 delegates (pledge and super) by the time of the convention.

I have not heard any neutral experts saying anything like that.  I just don't buy the argument that we should end this process just because Obama wants it to end.  Heck, he wanted it to end after Iowa!!!  I keep looking at the states he wins, and the truth is that the Democrats aren't going to carry them in November, no matter what.  Meanwhile, Hillary racks up huge victory margins in states that carry huge electoral votes with them.  How does Obama win these red states in a general election, especially after the mess over his pastor's long history of anti-American sermonizing while Obama remained silent???  They're going to trash him.
It's very simple math - if you think Hillary can win each of the remaining 10 races with a margin of at least 65%-35% over Obama in each primary, then continue to support her. Otherwise, it's time move on and start focusing on McCain.

Will the Clinton's please just go away?  I'm so tired of them and their sleazy ways.  Go away, go away, go away!
Will the Clinton's please just go away?  I'm so tired of them and their sleazy ways.  Go away, go away, go away!
To reinforce my post - if we go back and revisit the agreement, which Billary signed it said - if Mich and FL don't play by the Party rules, the votes would not count. Now Billary wants to ignore her agreement - again, you can't trust what they say, do or sign - and have elections.

We can debate the merits of MI and FL having a re-vote - that's not the point. Instead, Billary will say and doing anything - even violate an agreement they - without pressure - agreed to.  

This is why Billary's negatives continue to head north. They cannot be trusted.
Rob, if the roles were switched-if Obama had lost 12 straight after Super Tuesday-the media would have pushed him out a month ago.  The Clintons would be whining and stomping their feet that it was time to end it.  Also, amazingly, Hillary & Co, was planning for this to end after Feb 5th.  How many voters were they planning on disenfranchising then??  
We need to turn the page and open a new history in this Country.  The Bush/Clinton corrupt and dishonest dynasty got to end.  We are choosing hope over fear and corruption.

Hillary Clinton Lies about Bosnia: Lies Lies Lies Yeah!

http://www.youtube.com/watch? v=E8_odhuWfTk

NAFTA Gate and Hillary Clinton's credibility problem

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFuA0z4kKD4

MSNBC Questions Clinton's Truthiness, Says She Was Pro-NAFTA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YG00SWAqcvw&eurl


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