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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Looking ahead: Making progress in PA

Posted: Wednesday, April 02, 2008 8:52 AM by Domenico Montanaro

PENNSYLVANIA: The Washington Post covers the Obama Pennsylvania bus tour and finds that he's making some progress with blue-collar voters. "Despite a few stumbles -- at an Altoona bowling alley, Obama rolled a ball into a gutter on his first try -- political observers say he has started to make the inroads with voters he will need to cut into Clinton's lead." More: "Mark Nevins, Clinton's Pennsylvania spokesman, conceded to reporters on the candidate's campaign bus that Obama's aggressive efforts are making a difference.”

“Clinton is running a state campaign similar to Obama's, mixing small-scale and larger events that focus on pocketbook issues such as middle-class tax cuts and the creation of new manufacturing jobs. Her crowds are also boisterous, filled with shout-outs and standing ovations, along with signs that say ‘Don't quit.’”

Additionally: "To win in the state, Obama will probably need to run up big totals in and around Philadelphia, in the Lehigh Valley and in south-central Pennsylvania. Casey's support could help among more conservative Democrats, particularly in the Scranton and Wilkes-Barre region, where his family is a fabled political brand.”

It's still amazing that this Dem primary's swing voter is a white male. Apparently, that's the case in Pennsylvania, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Clinton went after a treasure trove of white male workers yesterday in a speech to the Pennsylvania convention of the AFL-CIO. Mr. Obama speaks to the same group today, while Mrs. Clinton travels to Pittsburgh for a closed-door economic summit at a union hall on the South Side.”

“Mr. Obama beat Mrs. Clinton among white men, often among huge margins, in the primaries in Wisconsin, Virginia, California and Maryland, but next-door in Ohio, whose demographics are often seen as similar to Pennsylvania's, Mrs. Clinton turned the tables, taking 58 percent of the white males to Mr. Obama's 37 percent, according to MSNBC exit polls. Pre-primary polling in Pennsylvania has shown she has similar leads among white males here.”

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Yes we can!  I am amazed at anyone who does not see what Obama can do for this country.  I am sorry but going back to the Clinton years is NOT progress by any deifinition of the word.  Imagine, please imagine what Clinton (Bill) would do as first lad... he will be a co president.  Seeing him on the campaign trail makes me want to organize a ban for him to stay out of any public office of the USA.  
Hmmmm. When supporters are showing up with signs that say, "don't quit," can the campaign have much life left in it?
I think that Senator Casey's endorsement is going to make a bigger difference than everyone realizes.  His family name in PA is akin to the Kennedy's name nationally.  People LOVE the Casey's here.

My guess is that the "blue-collar" Democrats in Pennsylvania will take a much harder look at Obama as a result of Casey's endorsement whereas they might have simply voted for Clinton without it.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
The ironic thing with the working class white males as swing voters is that look who they put in office in 2004 (and 2000).  Not anyone who did them any good...

I have said it before...I live in a working class town (albeit a diverse one) and I truly believe that Obama is our best hope for energizing the country, unifying disparate groups, sending a hopeful message abroad, and rolling up his shirt sleeves and getting to work in a multipartisan way.

I just hope the working class voters put ANY biases aside and look at the big picture.  I also think trust and leadership ability is critical and I think Obama is the vastly superior choice on those grounds as well.  And if you look at who has run the better campaign, well that just seals the deal.

Clinton is a smart lady, I'm not taking that away from her at all.  But raw intelligence alone is not a great indicator of who can get stuff done and who will be a great leader and President.

Vote Obama 08
I think Obama will have enough of the votes and delegates in Philadelphia for Hillary to wake up, and stop spending unnecessary money. SHE CANNOT and WILL NOT WIN the nomination, boy give up..She has to remember, this was not a given for her..she under estimated Obama..
White males.

The article correctly suggests that white males have often been the swing voters.  If Obama cuts into this constituency in PA, he gets his knockout; if not, she struggles on.

What has not been mentioned is that Clinton has never cut into Obama's core constituency -- blacks, liberals, educated, young voters.  It seems there should be some discussion of this failure.  Unless and until she can cut into these constituencies, she can never change the equation and she will ultimately lose.

Instead of focusing on Obama's ability to cut into her core to achieve a knockout, look at it from the other side.  If Clinton cannot break through in these demographics, she cannot win.
I have faith in Senator Obama that he will close the gap even further than 9 points by the time the PA voters go to the polls. If people (including white males)listen to his message they will be inspired like the rest of us. It's interesting that white males in PA would take Hillary's lies, distortions, and baggage that she would bring back to the White House above hope, change, and substance. Would like some white males from PA to explain why.
the closer the spread the worse for McClinton..
Billery better work harder and harder
while Barack goes bowling..
PENNA.....please go for INTEGRITY and hope, rather than lies & deception. Hillary = Bosnia lies, Irish peace lies, NAFTA lies, Chelsea on 911 day lies, investment lies, flip-flops about immigration, and real experience lies, etc. Obama may not have every piece of experiuence, but he beats her in EVERY important character issue.
I don't see how anyone can believe anything that comes out of a Clinton's mouth.  He lied about his affair.  Hilary has also lied to folks in Ia, NH, and in PA about the cork screw landing and sniper fire.  Their tactics are as divisive as anything Bush has used.  For example, Clinton's campaign has used people, including her husband, to play on the racial fears of America.  If you don't believe me look up Bill's remarks comparing Obama to Jesse Jackson, or the remarks by Hilary's supporter that Obama was a drug dealer in Chicago, or that Obama was a Muslim, or Hilary coming out weeks later and saying Wright would not be my preacher.  If you think those are not done intentionally than you are no bettter than a Bushbot.  Obama is the only candidate that is honest and worthy of the American votes.  
Obama views filed out on questionnaire in 1996, 1. Do you support capital punishment?  answered NO. Do you support state legislation to ban the manufacture, sale and possession of handguns?  answered  YES.  Do you support federal single tax-payer health plan?  answered in principal. When questioned on the answers , he stated an aid filled it out. Read for your self:  http://dyn.politico.com
The most glaring fact is - Hillary Clinton was annoited as the Democratic Nominee just 6 months ago.  She had the entire Democratic machine behind her.  When Obama started his grassroots organizing drive, he received NO support from organized Democratic State or local parties.  

Yet his character, morality, intelligence and judgment was so genuine, that well-educated white males were able to break free of the Clinton myth-machine and make Obama the front runner.

If the Clintons are such brilliant politicians, how did this happen?  I comes back to the ability to see through the nonsense, and recognize Obama as a true leader, just as Bill Richardson said.  "There is something special about this guy."

The Clinton have yet to release their tax returns from 200-2007.  What are they hiding?  Did they cheat on their taxes? Did they use off-shore tax shelters? Did they speculate on oil futures in the commodities markets?  Did they get rich on NAFTA-heavy companies that outsourced US jobs?  Did they recive pay-offs for past Presidential pardons?

These are the important questions, not the distractions of bowling, Rocky, and pastors.
Obie - you seem to be forgetting that not only can Obama not capture the White Male vote, he will have a hard time capturing the White Middle Aged Female vote and that is group that neither candidate can win the general election without.  Remember, we are women who came of age in the 60's & 70's, we changed a nation, stopped a war, burned our bras, and went to college and work.  We are a force to be reckoned with, if you don't believe me just ask your Mom!  We also have a lot of "spendable income", have good stable jobs, paid for houses, retirement funds, and health care.  We have been working for generations to leave a better America to our young, don't make us sorry we did.  Better not leave us out of the equation, you can be sure mccain and the repugnants won't.
Ms. Chelsea Clinton said: ‘My mom is more fiscally responsible than my father’.

So, why in the world she would not release her earmarks? Nor do I understand why the media cannot get hold of them. Please tell, how many times do people have to ask?
If the people in Penn. really looked at Obama and the way that he has mis spoke about the Kennedy's paying for his father to come here from Kenya and how he mis spoke about not knowing about the form that one of his staffers supposedly filled out for him, only to find out that he did know and that his hand written notes were on it, and how he dosen't want his daughters to be punished if they make a mistake by having to have a baby they would realize that he is not in tune with Mr. Casey, and yes let us not forget his pastor where he says if it was not for him leaving the church they he Obama would have left, yet he stood there for 20 years listening to this nonsense and brought his daughters there to be taught this hateful stuff about America. We have all seen how endorsements don't really mean that much, look at Oprah, Ted and Caroline Kennedy.
Don't be fooled. If Hillary's campaign is running events like the heavily staged (and sparcely attended) rally we went to in Dallas, those hand-made signs saying things like "Don't quit" are actually made by the campaign staff and then handed out to the crowd where they'll be seen by the TV cameras. Totally contrived.
I agree with Clinton and the pundits that the people of the remaining 10 contests should have the right to be heard.  However, I agree with most everyone above.  Hillary and Bill can't win.  They have every right to continue and campaign but lets keep it above the belt.  Their negative ratings are high and their approval ratings are low.  Mess up the Democrats chance to win the election in a year when Bush has served it up on a Silver plater and there will be political hell to pay. Bill will no longer be the "statesman of the party" I hear so many pundits say and Hillary can kiss the rest of her political career good bye.

It would not be wise for the CLINTONs to be known as the people who tanked their own party.  Talk about the issues and quit making up more lies and decit.  For example, Obama did not prevent FL and MI from being counted. The politicians in FL and MI DID.  They moved up their primaries and now they have to pay the price.  Sorry, when my boys break the rules they get a timeout, etc...  Well, MI/FL you are in a a timeout, so quit squaking and take your punishment.  Take it up with the politicians in those states that knowing screwed their own constituents.  

Republicans for Obama 08
Yes WE CAN!
anybody who has any brains knows that hillary will not win against McCainso why waist your vote.If McCain wins it will mean 4 more years of Bush' mess.
I am still waiting to see Clintons tax returns, Clinton Foundation and Library donor list, and ear marks...
where are they...its April 2nd
Never ceases to amaze me how many people are hoodwinked by the Obama rhetoric.  If BS were electricity this guy would be a generating station.  As for Mrs Clinton she has stepped in enough scat to readily recognize it.  As for Mr McCain, his options are shuffleboard vs gumming an ear of corn.  These three are the best our country can produce, really?
as someone who rightly belongs to the older white woman demographic,and therefor a sure bet hillary supporter, I'm proud to differ and addmy vote to Barack's column. It's my strong opinion that his nomination and subsequent election will advance racial harmony, educational gains for the disadvantaged "left behinders" and measureable gains in our economy and world diplomacy. Enough of the Clinton team.
I think "white men" will be taking a serious look at clinton due to her bosnia lie. It's mostly the "white men" who have serviced our country who took her sniper fire to heart.  We may embrace the humor at one who self inflicts themselves in such a lie but to our service men and woman - this really hurts.  To those who have been affected and injured due to sniper fire, I can't see them raining in on the clintons side under any circumstances.  So we'll just have to wait and see how this affects clintons numbers.
Union Baby,

I don't mean to leave women out of the equation at all, and I respect the importance of Clinton's candidacy to the women's movement.  This constituency has been rock solid for her all the way through, and I don't expect that to change.  For the first time ever, my wife and I disagree on our candidate choice, and I respect her opinion and understand where she comes from (we too are children of the 60's)

My point is that Obama's core constituency also has been rock solid.  Since he is so far ahead in both delegates and popular votes, Clinton cannot catch up unless and until she can break into his core supporters.
as someone who rightly belongs to the older white woman demographic,and therefor a sure bet hillary supporter, I'm proud to differ and addmy vote to Barack's column. It's my strong opinion that his nomination and subsequent election will advance racial harmony, educational gains for the disadvantaged "left behinders" and measureable gains in our economy and world diplomacy. Enough of the Clinton team.
Robim Mastro the talking points you made can someone address them for you .The gaff by Obama on his father is a gaff he made. The Bosnia story is a blatant lie that Hillary Made and had Chelsea collaborate it.The punishment of have a child statement is a fair statement,it was not calling having children punishment.It was calling an unprepared child having a child a punishment of being an unprepared parent.Union Baby we need you for sure, we need all Democrats and whomever Rebublicans that are tired of the Bush style of goverment to Unite behind one candidate and give Americans a voice.Do I believe that Hillary Clinton would be capable . May be but she has not passed my Commander and Chief test .Which is to just talk honestly with people.So until she resolves that issue I ask you to Vote For Barrack Obama for the Nomination for  a Change We Can Believe In. I think he is a honest person ,maybe to a fault but a fault I can live with .
I am waiting for Hillary to release their tax returns - 2000 through 2007. They should be interesting. Especially their investment in Yucaipa Companies and particularly Brenco. Why doesn't Hillary mention that they are invested in a Brazilian sweat shop? And for all you regular union workers from Ohio, New York and Pennsylvania, look at the magnitude and source of Hill & Bill's income. It appears that they have invested where your jobs have gone. How many jobs has she brought back to NY?
You need to read the lastest poll results and see the results from Pennslyvania and Florida as the relate to the white male Democratic lunch box vote. Then go to CNN and read the New York Times article. You Obama supporters have to be brain dead or so out of touch with really and had your brains washed by MSNBC, NBC and Newsweek. The Obama campaign and its supporters, by your mean and vicious campaign tactics have already turned off 28% of the Clinton supporters who will not vote for Obama in the fall. You are destroying any chance of winning Florida and Michigan. Where in hell do you think you are going to get the electorial votes to beat McCain. You think you are going to get them in Kansas, Idaho or Utah or any southern or border states? You got to be "kidding".
I'd really like the media to take this discussion up . . .
First off, I'm an Obama supporter, and it has nothing to do with race.  He has the intelligence and insight to take our country where it needs to go, and no one else does.

Here goes. . .
Why is Obama described as "black," when he is just as much "white"?  Isn't that from the old racial school of thinking, "even a drop of black blood makes you "black?"
For those that have to think in racial terms, Obama will make the perfect president!  Blacks can be proud of the "first black" president, but when he screws up, they can blame his "whiteness," while all the worried whites can think the same in reverse, plus they get the added reassurance that he doesn't have the "Black American" experience to make him resentful.

Okay, let's hear it . . .
The PPP poll that came out today has Obama up 2% in Penn. This poll had Hillary up 26% 3 weeks ago. The Realclearpolitics poll of polls for Penn has gone from 12% this weekend to 6% today.

So much for Hillary catching Barack in the popular vote
I don't understand how democrats are turning on Hillary, for this unelectable, liberal snake oil salesman, good lord Bill Clinton is all the democratic party has had for 30 years...  Certain portions of the Dem party have certainly turned their backs on the strongest dem family in what 50 years...

It astounds me, Republicans would never have done that with Reagan...
Yes, Hillary: Where are those tax returns that Howard Wolfson promised would be released this week ? We're waiting... and waiting.... and waiting.,,
Go go go in Pensylvania, Obama, you can win PA!!!  
What are we...dogs?  Can't learn or change?  Older whites particularly working class men?  I was born while Truman was president, once voted for Nixon and can now say I find Obama the most inspiring candidate I've ever seen.  Democracy benefits from diversity.   A woman as president..great!  If she's the best candidate.  Clinton's not.
Hill is DONE so give up.
She cant win. She is wasting money, time and energy. She needs to get behind the Party and do the right thing.

The Hill Supporters need to do the same. She has run a TERRIBLE CAMPAIGN. ADMIT IT ALREADY.
This is to white male voters especially in Pennsylvania. Female voters are voting for Hillary ONLY because they want a women president. But in Ohio Hillary took the White male vote by a HUGE margin. It shows that at least males are listening to the candidates.  I urge the white male vote in Pennsylvania to vote for Obama and neutralize the female vote who only wants a women president regardless of the qualifications.
Where is MCCAIN and CLINTON TAX RETURNS.  The public is finally on to the BS, Flip flopping game of these "experienced" candidates.  They are experienced in manipulation and deciet.  That is something I would be proud of. Aren't you?

OBama 08


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