ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



First thoughts: Two different maps

Posted: Thursday, April 03, 2008 9:26 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Two different maps: On TODAY and Morning Joe, NBC’s Tim Russert took at a stab at November’s electoral map. And this morning, we do the same, to show how different Clinton’s and Obama’s paths to 270 are. This is where we start, and we will be updating this regularly between now and November.
Obama vs. McCain
Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT, WA (168 electoral votes)
Lean Obama:  NJ, MN, OR, WI (42)
Toss-up: CO, IA, MI, MO, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA (112)
Lean McCain: AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, MT, NC (81)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, ID, IN, KS, KY, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (135)

Clinton vs. McCain
Base Clinton: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT (172)
Lean Clinton: AR, MN, OR, WA, WI (44)
Toss-up: FL, IA, MI, NM, NH, OH, PA (101)
Lean McCain: CO, LA, MO, NV, VA (47)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, MS, MT, NE, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (174)

*** Mixing and matching: Obviously, there's a lot of mixing and matching one can do, as Russert did this morning. Check out how Obama can win without BOTH Ohio and Florida, as long as he wins Kerry's states plus Colorado and Virginia. Or toss in New Mexico, Iowa, and Nevada and he can lose Michigan, too. Clinton's path looks more traditional as long as she doesn't lose Oregon or Wisconsin. If she adds Ohio or Florida and loses Oregon, she can get it back by adding Arkansas. If she carries Oregon, but loses Wisconsin, she'll need Florida and Arkansas; Ohio and Arkansas won't do it. And as Russert pointed out, it's a bit too easy, again, to get to 269-269 -- meaning no candidate gets 270 and the election goes to the Dem-controlled House. In that scenario, by the way, each delegation gets one vote, so the formula is not cut-and-dried. And there would be pressure on some lawmakers to vote their state instead of their party. Sound familiar? Oy…

VIDEO: Hillary Clinton reportedly says only she, and not Barack Obama, can win again John McCain. NBC’s Tim Russert looks at the issue.

*** Hillary’s Mountain West problem? Is it just us, or does right now seem a lot like the weeks leading into Ohio and Texas, when Obama was picking up a superdelegate or two per day? Yesterday, Obama got two more of them: Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal and former Montana Sen. John Melcher. While these are two more superdelegates for Obama, they also represent Clinton’s problems west of the Mississippi. In the past couple of election cycles, Democrats have made huge gains in the Mountain West (in Colorado and Montana, especially). And these elected officials seem to be gravitating toward Obama, not Clinton. Her numbers are not great in Colorado or Oregon; Bill Clinton was never overly popular out in the Mountain West. Could that Bill hangover be hurting Hillary? 

*** He said, they said: This discussion of the electoral map gains even more relevancy today with the report that Hillary told Bill Richardson that Obama “can’t win.” This version of events apparently took place in the days/hours right before Richardson went public with his Obama support. According to one source familiar with the Richardson-HRC conversation, she repeatedly told him Obama couldn't win. But this wasn't the only Obama electability conversation the Clintons and Richardson apparently had. A source with knowledge of earlier conversations between the Clintons and Richardson tells NBC News that it was Richardson who insisted to the Clintons that Obama could not win because of his inexperience. This source adds that Richardson repeatedly said that to both of them as the reason he wasn’t going to endorse Obama because he was “Not ready -- can’t win.” However, this took place in and around Super Tuesday. So the he-said, they-said on this issue continues. No doubt the bad blood between the New Mexico governor and the Clintons has only gotten worse. Actually, it's likely that both sides are speaking the truth: Richardson may have believed Obama couldn't win on Feb. 5, but was convinced differently after Obama went on his 11-contest winning streak.

*** John’s excellent adventure: Has McCain's bio tour worked? He ends it tomorrow in Memphis, which could be his most high-profile event, where he attends the events surrounding the anniversary of MLK's assassination. But what did McCain gain this week? The tour received some attention in newscasts and newspaper articles -- but nothing compared with what the latest dramas in the Clinton-Obama race attracted. The tour certainly hasn’t hurt McCain. But did it help him? Just asking: What if they unveiled his bio each day at stops in three key states like Michigan, Florida, and Iowa? McCain is weaker in Iowa than a Republican should be and has ground to make up there. Also, stumping in Florida and Michigan would only serve as a chance to stick a finger in the eyes of the Democrats regarding their delegate dispute in those two states.

*** McCain tour, Day 4: The fourth leg of McCain’s “Service to America” tour takes him to Jacksonville, FL. Per NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy, McCain lived there with his first wife and three children upon returning from his first tour in Vietnam upon the ill-fated Forrestal. When he shipped out again -- eventually to be shot down and taken prisoner in North Vietnam -- his family remained in Jacksonville and were cared for by the soldiers stationed at Cecil Field, the location of today’s speech. “My family lived here before I went to war, and this is the place I came home to after the war,” McCain will say, according to excerpts of his remarks. “We lived here again in 1974 for two years, when I was Executive Officer, and then Commanding Officer of VA 174, the Replacement Air Group at Cecil Field… This place was never more special to me than during my unexpectedly long deployment overseas, when the good people of this place looked after my family in my absence. I have always been indebted to Florida friends and neighbors in Orange Park for taking such good care of my family while I was away.”

*** On the trail: Clinton raises money in Beverly Hills, CA and then appears on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno; Obama is down in Chicago; Bill Clinton campaigns in Altoona, PA, then heads to Kentucky (May 20 primary); and Chelsea Clinton stumps in Pennsylvania.  

Countdown to Pennsylvania: 19 days
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 33 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 215 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 292 days
 
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Comments

I was mad a little bit that Hillary would tell Bill Richardson that ‘He cannot win”.  So I started playing mathematical games with the general election in November.  I cannot be the only one who is looking at the Electoral College map.  Here are the states I think will go for Obama- 355 total votes; CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, HI, ID, IL, IN, IO, KS, LA, MA, MI, MN, MO, NJ, NM, NY, ND, OH, OR, PA, SC, VA, VE, WA, WI, WV; 29 states.

I think Senator Clinton is wrong.  I would call 355 Electoral College votes a near landslide.  Even if you take out Michigan and Ohio, he still beats McCain handily 318-220.  I have McCain beating you 306-232; and that is with CA & NY padding your number!

What exactly is your problem Hillary?  Maybe I should call you at 3 AM, since that seems a good time to reach you.
http://twocanpete.blogspot.com/
If Obama wins the nomination he'll sweep Iowa. He spent so much time in the state that people actually felt like he lived there. McCain dusted the state off like it was full of a bunch of hayseeds. Obama still has legions of hardworking ground troops in Iowa and they will be out in force, count on it.
I guess the vote that Barack Obama needs in PA is the white middle aged working class men.  Well, if what I’m hearing up here is any indication, he’s not going to get it. I listen to a very popular local sports station program every morning and the two guys on the program are conservatives. I assume the bulk of their audience is working class men. These two hosts have absolutely no problem going through the conservative talking points of the day. It has become more of a political program than a sports program because of the upcoming election. They are determined to do everything in their power to ensure that a democrat is not elected in 2008.

If you could hear what they have to say about Barack Obama and Reverend Wright, it would make you literally want to cry. This is how conservatives are talking all across the country on the radio. These two hosts are probably in their 40’s and 50’s. It makes me so ashamed that Americans talk like this.

What is troubling to me is that their audience probably doesn’t realize that this is racism they are hearing - pure and simple.

I don’t see how Barack Obama can possibly get the working class vote if this is the crap they are hearing on the radio on an hourly basis. I have complained - to no avail. It’s all about ratings.

Which they have. In large numbers.

It's all too bad because as we all know, if Barack Obama carries PA - the primaries are over.

The voters will have spoken.
When Hillary says that Obama cannot win, she is obviously referring to the help that she will give McCain in order to ensure that Obama cannot win.  Hillary does not care about the country or her party.  She cares only about herself.  She is planning to bring Obama down so she can have another chance in 2012.

Why does anyone support her?  In all my years of following politics, I have found her to be one of the most deceitful, corrupt politicians ever.

Obama in 2008.  Integrity matters and the Clintons have none.
Being from Colorado I can tell you there is no way obama will win the GE here.  That is the problem with the punditry (or do they really know this, we all know how they helped Gore lose and helped swiftboat Kerry) they don't get a real feel for what is really happening out here.  During our caucus Latinos didn't show up (and they will vote in the general) and everyone I have spoken to will not vote for obama in the GE, they will vote for Hillary or McCain.  The Rev. Wright has effected the viability of obama here in CO. we have 7 military installations in my county and once obama supporters, that I know, will not be voting for obama because of his 20 year inclusion of Wrights church and close relation.  I have been told by several of them they will no longer support obama and will vote for Hillary or McCain.  We still not have settled the delegate count here and won't until May, and so far the county conventions have given her a higher percent of the delegate count, I know I am a delegate.  Obama won't win Colorado, so your numbers don't add up for obama.
Last time the Democrats relied on Ohio and Florida, we ended up with George Bush...
Oregon has a history of being a progressive state with a bit a radical right and left elements thrown in for fun, but Oregonians tend to vote for candidates who are likeable.  Sen. Clinton is certainly qualified in every respect to be considered for the Presidency, but try as she might, she is not likeable.  Oregon will be a strong Obama state.
The maps look close enough not to give a major electability argument to the Clintons.

However, I really do think Obama has the advantage in that with momentum, strong campaigning, lots of money, and turnout, he can really cut into his "leaning McCain" group.

YES WE CAN!
Chuck are you serious? do you really believe obama can win the red states he won during the primaries?  LOL maybe you are just to young.  and no he won't pick up all the states Hillary won like FL, MI, OH, NV, AR, TN, etc.  He has lost MO already according to the polls and I know he has lost Colorado and MCCain is whooping him in the southern red states he has won.
TIM R?  JAJA JA JA, TIM  IS ANOTHER OBAMA SUPPORTER, WHO HAS BEEN ATTACKING HILLARY IN EVERY OPPORTUNITY.
WHY SHOULD I BELIEF SOMEONE WHO SUCH BIAS AGAINST ONE OF THE CANDIDATE?  

THE FACT IS THAT MOST OF MSNBC REPORTEERS ARE PUSHING FOR OBAMA ...  

EVERYTHING THAT TIM AND CHRIS REPORT IS NEGATIVE TOWARD CLINTON,  SO, LET MAKE THIS FACT STR8, MSNBC IS TRYING SO HARD TO SHOW OBAMA AS A STRONG CANDIDATE.

SHAME ON THEM... LETS BE HONEST AND FAIR IN OUR ASSESSMENT WHEN REPORTING TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.
I think the Bill C. hangover is hurting Hillary everywhere except perhaps in Arkansas.

Oregon for Clinton, hmmm, I could see Oregon going to McCain if Obama is not the nominee.  (Oregon is another state I've spent a fair about of time in, love the State).
I WOULD BRING UP ALL THE BIGOTED REMARKS MADE BY PASTORS ON RIGHT WHO ARE EMBRACED BY REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTS!FALWELL,SWAGGART,PAT ROBINSON ....AMERICANS GO TO CHURCH FOR THE LEARNING OF THE LORD NOT TO LEARN ABOUT POLITICS.IF THE REPUBLICAN THREW EVERY PASTOR UNDER THE BUS WHO MADE OFFENSIVE POLITICAL REMARKS THERE WOULD NOT BE ANYONE LEFT STANDING!
Pat, Boston, MA - why are you so afraid of conservative talk radio?  The "working class" who listen to such trash are not likely Democratic voters, even for Clinton.  Those same shows have soundly ruined her already, yes?  They are also not likely to be enthusastic McCain supporters, as he has ALSO been torn a new one by these shows.  My father loves Rush Limbaugh and has switched his party registration to vote for Obama, primary and general.  There is no reason to be afraid of these people anymore, we don't need to fight on their terms.  Even the people who LIKE these fools aren't actually buying it anymore.  That's what I like about Obama, it's a break from these tired classifications.  The map will get mixed up (oh, and MSNBC fellas, the map stuff is way premature and probably the most useless, navel-gazing story I've ever seen on television, ooo, look at the pretty colors - GET OVER YOURSELVES, NO ONE CARES THAT YOU CAN DO BASIC MATH, THE ELECTION IS MONTHS AWAY) and Obama is a terrific candidate who will win in opposition to a waning party, an uninspiring candidate, and a stale domestic and foreign policy.  Why are we Democrats so afraid of success?  Us newbies coming in don't much care for losing, thanks.  Time for a solid win!
Michigan is not a "toss up" for Hillary. She would win Michigan, along with Ohio and Pennsylvania.
In fact, the controversy over the primaries in Michigan may well have a negative impact on Obama's ability to carry that state, as well as Florida.
But, Hillary could win Florida as there are a lot of transposed New Yorkers there.
Furthermore, Obama will not win California. Especially if the G.O.P. throws some money at that state and gets Arnold involved in the campaign.
If Rudy Giulliani and George Pataki campaign heavily for McCain in NY State, Obama won't win there either.
Hillary proved she can and would win California and of course NY would be solidly in her column.
Mr. Russert's electoral map is everely flawed and, of course, biased towards Obama.
Now, I know this post is going to upset the Obama supporters.
But it IS The TRUTH, and as we all know.....
I suspect what is going on with Bill Richardson is that he gave the Clintons every benefit of the doubt early on in the campaign.  Like a lot of people did.  And what has happened since Super Tuesday is that Hillary has been losing a race that was hers to win.  And Obama has come on strong through battles and is looking more Presidential every day.  He has shown his learning curve and he has shown that experiences is not just measured in longevity but in overall life experience, judgment, and a willingness to hear diverse views and to learn.

Bill Richardson knows that it was Hillary's race to win or to lose and yet, look which way she went.

Also, let's look at temperment, shall we.  NO matter what the conversations were, Bill Clinton, an ex-President looks not very Presidential here.  Bill Richardson, not a President yet, looks way better here.

That is not in dispute.

Obama 08
Sarah - How can Obama have already lost states that haven't had an election yet?  Plus lets really look at this red state/blue state argument.  Didn't President Reagan win 49 out of 50 states?  And that was when it was a Democrat Controlled Congress.  To automatically assume that Senator Obama will lose certain states is a false assumption.  Plus it seems as though Senator Clinton is trying the same strategy that Gore and Kerry used wich was to go after the big states and ignore the rest.  I think we all know how well that strategy worked for both of them.  

sarah, fountain, colorado - are you so not young that you can't Google the voting numbers?  Obama won 255,809 votes in "southern, red" Mississippi, McCain won 113,074...Obama won 700,366 votes is "southern, red" Georgia, McCain won 303,639 (and lost to Huckabee)...Obama won 295,091 votes is "southern, red" South Carolina and McCain won 147,283...Obama won 220,588 votes is "southern, red" Louisiana and McCain won 69,665 (and lost to Huckabee).  So, yes, I really believe math and that Obama can win the red states he won in the primaries.  
Governor Richardson thought Senator Obama was unelectable until Obama offered him a job in his administration.  Wait and see ...
Quite frankly, I think Russert's numbers are wrong.  How can Russert, who has been incorrect a lot of the time during this campaign, disregard the ovewhelming voter turnout Obama and Clinton have received so far.  Almost 2 to 1 over the GOP.  Sure that will diminish, but not like he thinks.
The TRUTH Hurts (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 9:52 AM)


40% of Democrats in Michagan got into their cars, walked and caught buses on a cold day to vote UNCOMMITTED AGAINST Clinton, I think MSNBC calling it a toss-up for Clinton was being kind!!!
Hillary will probably carry the northeast (lots of Liberals up there)

But when she gets that 3 a.m. phone call telling her she lost the nomination, will she beat Bill half to death with that phone? LOL
*******************************************
NEWS!!! JIMMY CARTER will most likely endorse Obama!!!!
*******************************************

http://www.thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=107611

"We are very interested in the primaries. Don’t forget that Obama won in my state of Georgia. My town which is home to 625 people is for Obama, my children and their spouses are pro- Obama. My grandchildren are also pro- Obama. As a Super Delegate, I would not disclose who I am rooting for but I leave you to make that guess..." -JIMMY CARTER
Quite frankly, I think Russert's numbers are wrong.  How can Russert, who has been incorrect a lot of the time during this campaign, disregard the ovewhelming voter turnout Obama and Clinton have received so far.  Almost 2 to 1 over the GOP.  Sure that will diminish, but not like he thinks.
THE REAL FANTASY PHONE CALL...

It's 3AM. the phone rings....Thank You calling the White House. Please call back at regular business hours..We don't know when that will be..but keep trying..Thank You and Have A Nice Day......

Damnit Bill!! Where are you? I don't know how to change this G*D D#M! machine left over from the Bush's..those F&CKERS!!!!

FOR REAL PHONE CALLL

The phone rings it's anytime of day...

Hello this is Barack Obama...Okay..I'M ON IT !!!

Obama '08
I'm just laughing at the pro-Hillary comments here .
It's funny .. they have NOTHING ... I mean really .. they are running out of Any Good points ...
The only thing they have is Rev. Wright this and that.

Thats it ? REALLY ? ...

Do you mean to say that the only chance that The Clintons have is to push the perceived biggotry of Southern White men ?
REALLY !
SHAME SHAME .... AND FUNNY .. VERY FUNNY ...lol
Sarah in Co:

So!   Try looking at the bigger picture, and stop using biased and bigoted reasoning to guide you.  If you let church going habits influence how you vote then you were only looking for an excuse not to vote for Obama.    Stop all the talk about his pastor and again,  Look at the big picture....if your heart and mind will let you.

Go Obama ,08
The TRUTH Hurts:  You must be on Senator Clinton's payroll.  You are using the time honored strategy of the Clintons - Lie, Deny, then Deflect.  Do you really think that Michigan voters think that Senator Clinton is championing their cause?  She agreed that the state would lose it delegates, one of her top advisors was on the DNC committe that made the rule and so forth.  Then when she found out that she really needed the votes (she didn't care before because she knew that the election would be over by Super Tuesday) then she suddenly cared?  Come on now, do you really buy that?!

The real truth is that this is going to be a 50 state election with no "give me" states.  Any of the candidates are capable of winning just about any of the states.  I will grant that it is most likely that the only state that might be a lock is the candidates home state (though Gore proved that concept wrong when he didn't carry his own state, blame Florida if you will but if he had carried his own state he would have won).
I think everyone is getting way ahead of themselves here. Has anyone considered the fact that Obama will have time to campaign in the states he needs to win in Nov? Has he NOT closed the gap in almost every major contest thus far? Why would you think the GE would be any different? Hasn't his campaign run a well-oiled machine, considering this was Hillary's race to lose and lose she is? Do NOT underestimate Obama and his team. I have faith that he will pull this off and be the first African American President of the United States and we ALL will have a part in getting him there! This is how politics SHOULD be!
Chuck, NY (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 9:33 AM):
What are you basing your conclusion on with regard to states that Obama will win?  Current general polling or his primary/caucus wins?  If the latter, you are not taking into account that the fact that only a small percentage of voters in red states like Idaho actually voted in those primaries/caucuses when compared to the general electorate in those states.  You are engaging in fuzzy math here a bit.  For instance, if in Idaho, 30% of the voters are Dem., and of that 30%, only 20% voted in that states's primary, and Obama got 60% of that vote, that means only 60% of 20% of 30% voted for him which equates to a very smaller percentage of the general electorate.  However, if you show me a general election poll that puts him against McCain and shows Obama beating McCain with very few undecideds, then you have a case. Otherwise, you don't.
I think its way premature to be counting electors. Too much still to play out.

I'm more at the stage of looking at potential battlegrounds, realizing that independents will decide those states, and seeing which candidates do better among independents.

That said, Clinton would lose spectacularly, and she would drag down lower ticket candidates with her because of the reasons she would lose so spectacularly - reenergizing the Republican base and pushing indepedents who value trustworthiness toward the GOP.

Obama and McCain would be a classic. Independents aren't repelled by either. But win or lose, Obama wouldn't kill the party's congressional candidates.
It's been a very Stressful week so far as My daughter gave birth to a 3lb-3 oz baby Boy on Sunday(7 week's premature).Her condition was touch & go for almost 48 hour's, but she is recuperating well now & hopefully will be released sometime this weekend.He is a Healthy 3 pounder & breathing mostly on his Own.

With all this happening, I have'nt paid much attention to Politic's or anything else.It is very encouraging to see Barack making headway in Pennsylvania(according to some).He was very Presidential on hardball last night.We supporter's of Barack have Not lost our enthusiasm for his candicy.It seem's like the Super Delegates are wanting to experience this enthusiasm as well.

With America heading headlong into a Recession, we can Not afford to get this Presidential election Wrong.Gasoline prices are fueling this Recession & as long as we're in Iraq, it won't get any better.Barack will End this debacle & bring our Troop's Home.

"DELUSIONAL THINKING BY COMMON SENSE AMERICAN'S IS OVER "
But when she gets that 3 a.m. phone call telling her she lost the nomination, will she beat Bill half to death with that phone?

LOL!  Dude, if I were her I would have dumped his sorry a$$ in 1999 and ran for the Presidency the next year.  Now, that's the kind of woman I'd like to see in the White House.  He has ruined her, what a shame.  
Clinton vs. McCain
Base Clinton: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT (172)
Toss-up: FL, IA, MI, NM, NH, OH, PA (101)

I don't see Hawaii going Clinton if she steals it from Obama.  I also don't see Iowa going Clinton either, after Clinton bashed their caucuses and only got 3rd to begin with there.   New Mexico... after their trashing Richardson... that's going to be a rough state as well.

Florida is going to be very tough for her too.  Charlie Crist is very popular, and the Repubs control every branch of that state, so they have a strong network there.
Michigan is not a "toss up" for Hillary. She would win Michigan, along with Ohio and Pennsylvania.
In fact, the controversy over the primaries in Michigan may well have a negative impact on Obama's ability to carry that state, as well as Florida.
But, Hillary could win Florida as there are a lot of transposed New Yorkers there.
Furthermore, Obama will not win California. Especially if the G.O.P. throws some money at that state and gets Arnold involved in the campaign.
If Rudy Giulliani and George Pataki campaign heavily for McCain in NY State, Obama won't win there either.
Hillary proved she can and would win California and of course NY would be solidly in her column.
Mr. Russert's electoral map is everely flawed and, of course, biased towards Obama.
Now, I know this post is going to upset the Obama supporters.
But it IS The TRUTH, and as we all know.....
The TRUTH Hurts (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 9:52 AM)

--------------------------------------

Wow...major flaws in that argument.

1. Once again, blame is incorrectly placed on Senator Obama for the mess in Florida and Michigan.  It was Clinton advisor Harold Ickes who was part of the team that decided that no delegates would be seated from either state at the convention.  Shouldn't there be backlash against her for that?

2. You give The Governator too much credit.  Between LA and SF do you really see California going GOP?  Besides, Arnie is balanced out immediately by his wife (see also: The Kennedys).

3. New York going GOP if Senator Obama is the nominee is also a hoot.  Not going to happen.  This is still a state with 2 Democrats in the US Senate and a Democrat as Governor.  Nice that you mention Pataki and Giuliani campaigning for Senator McCain but neither of them are the most powerful people in the GOP here in New York.

Truth?  Not even close.
This Reverend Wright drumbeat from the conservatives is very simple to counter. If the problem supposedly is that Obama did not renounce his pastor enough or did not abandon this church for the few politically charged sermons that Wright gave, then what of the millions of Catholic parishioners who stood by their church in its time of crisis.? They did not leave their church after it became known that children were being sexually abused by priests, and the fact that the church was hiding it to a large degree. Why? Because the Christian teaching is to forgive and move on and this is what Obama did as well.
sarah, fountain, colorado - are you so not young that you can't Google the voting numbers?  Obama won 255,809 votes in "southern, red" Mississippi, McCain won 113,074...Obama won 700,366 votes is "southern, red" Georgia, McCain won 303,639 (and lost to Huckabee)...Obama won 295,091 votes is "southern, red" South Carolina and McCain won 147,283...Obama won 220,588 votes is "southern, red" Louisiana and McCain won 69,665 (and lost to Huckabee).  So, yes, I really believe math and that Obama can win the red states he won in the primaries.  
squintz, philly, pa (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 9:56 AM)

---------
And are you forgetting that there were only 2 or 3 competitive democrats in those primaries while there were several for GOP?  

Any Obamabot, and even Hillary supporters, who think that just because you won a red state dem. primary, you will get that state in the general election must be politically naive.

First, only a small percentage of the general electorate of those states actually voted in the primaries.  

Second, when the general election happens, the entire state votes, meaning the greater percentage of repulicans in those states will outvote the democrats who are registed at lower numbers in those states, even with the current rise in registration.  

So, you can't make generalizations about the general election based on a dem. candidate's success in a red state primary caucus.  Otherwise, this means that Obama will win Idaho, a red state where republican registered voters are obver 60% of the general electorate, which has almost never ever ever ever voted dem.  Clearly, he wil not.
group of prominent Pennsylvania Jews endorsed U.S. Sen. Barack Obama in advance of the state's April 22 primary.

In a letter to the state's Jewish community, about 60 Jewish supporters of Obama, including some politicians, rabbis and community leaders, dismissed concerns raised about the candidate's commitment to Israel, praised his response to the controversial statements of his pastor and urged them to support the Illinois lawmaker in the Democratic primary.

http://elections.jta.org
March 31, 2008

Dear Friend:

We are writing as American Jews from all across Pennsylvania to ask that you join us in supporting Senator Barack Obama for President of the United States.

Much has been said and many questions have been raised within the Jewish community in recent weeks about Senator Obama’s sensitivity to our community and his record on Israel. Unfortunately, much of the discourse has been based more on politics and positioning and less on facts and fair-minded analysis. We are writing to set the record straight and tell you why we intend to vote for Barack Obama.

Each of us – us members of the Jewish community – takes great pride in our commitment to Judaism. For us, the strategy of assigning guilt by association – as has been to done to Senator Obama – runs counter to our teachings and dishonors Jewish law and ethical traditions. Jewish law neither condemns thoughts nor does it denounce the musing of other’s hearts. By contrast, under Jewish law, we – all of us – are judged by our actions and our actions alone.

Senator Obama has earned our respect and gratitude because of his support for traditional Jewish values and his commitment to a peaceful and prosperous Israel. His support for Tikkun Olam – “repairing the world” – and social justice is evident through his accomplishments in the Illinois Senate and the U.S. Senate. Without exception, Senator Obama has voted 100% consistently with the position of AIPAC on foreign aid and all other legislation and resolutions affecting Israel. These are the kind of actions for which we are grateful as a community. And, these are facts. For a more in depth look at the Senator’s strong record on issues that matter to our community, please click here.

Earlier this month, responding to withering criticism of the pastor of his church, Senator Obama delivered a courageous and powerful speech that demonstrated his unique ability to talk frankly about the continuing racial tension in our country. His speech itself will not lead to racial reconciliation or a complete understanding of our different religious and cultural traditions, but it has opened a new door for Americans of all backgrounds to begin speaking openly with one another. It is a speech that will serve as a teaching tool for all our citizens and will surely serve the interests of the Jewish community. In trying to place the speech in historical context, The New York Times editorialized that the “Inaugural addresses by Abraham Lincoln and Franklin D. Roosevelt come to mind, as does John F. Kennedy’s 1960 speech on religion…”

While we are profoundly disturbed by the unpatriotic, bigoted and anti-Semitic comments of the retired pastor of Senator Obama’s church, we are moved that Barack stood up at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia earlier this month, and “condemned in unequivocal terms the statements of Reverend Wright” and expressed his own views on issues near and dear to the heart and soul of the Jewish community.

Specifically, in repudiating the remarks of his former pastor, Senator Obama said Reverend Wright “expressed a profoundly distorted view of this country…a view that sees the conflicts in the Middle East as rooted primarily in the actions of stalwart allies like Israel, instead of emanating from the perverse and hateful ideologies of radical Islam.”

Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel, a great rabbinic scholar of the 20th century, was known equally for his theological scholarship and as well as for having marched alongside the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. during the civil rights movement.

Heschel once recalled that when marching in Selma, he was confronted by a host of people who were filled with hate and ignorance. They jeered at the Rabbi who afterwards declared to his fellow Jews: “When I marched in Selma, my feet were praying.” Later, Heschel would recount that while he had always found comfort in his Siddur, his prayer book, it was in Selma where he learned to pray with his feet as well.

We have each chosen to pray with our feet and stand with Barack Obama because he is sensitive to the issues of the Jewish community and a stalwart supporter of Israel.

We respectfully ask that you stand with Senator Barack Obama and vote for him on April 22.

The Honorable Josh Shapiro
Deputy Speaker, Pennsylvania House of Representatives
Abington, PA

The Honorable Daylin Leach
Pennsylvania House of Representatives
Ardmore, PA

Rabbi Robyn Frisch
Rydal, PA

Rabbi Seth Frisch
Rydal, PA

Rabbi Nancy Fuchs-Kreimer
Philadelphia, PA

Rabbi Jonathan H. Gerard
Easton, PA

Rabbi David A. Teutsch
Philadelphia, PA

Rabbi Joshua Waxman
Fort Washington, PA

Robert S. Adelson
Merion, PA

David Ainsman
Pittsburgh, PA

Meryl Ainsman
Pittsburgh, PA

Mark Alderman
Bryn Mawr, PA

Marian Allen
Pittsburgh, PA

Tom Allen
Pittsburgh, PA

Irl Barg
Chester County, PA

Henri J. Barkey
International Relations Dept., Lehigh University
Allentown, PA

Dr. Steve Barrer
Abington, PA

Daniel Berger, Esq.
Philadelphia, PA

Todd W. Bernstein
Philadelphia, PA

James D. Bloom
Muhlenberg College
Allentown, PA

Peter Buttenwieser
Philadelphia, PA

Daniel Clearfield
Harrisburg, PA

Carl Cohen
Pittsburgh, PA

Dan Cohen,
Pittsburgh, PA

Hillary Cohen
Pittsburgh, PA

Marcia Cooper
Pittsburgh, PA

Mickie Diamond
Pittsburgh, PA

David Ehrenwerth
Pittsburgh, PA

Judy Ehrenwerth
Pittsburgh, PA

Justin Ehrenwerth
Pittsburgh, PA

Bradley T. Forman
Harrisburg, PA

Sue Friedberg
Pittsburgh, PA

Aaron J. Friewald, Esq.
Wynnewood, PA

Jeffrey Frutkin
Spring House, PA

Serena Fujita
Bucknell University
Lewisburg PA

Bernard Gerber,
Berks County, PA

Susan Golomb
Pittsburgh, PA

Stephen M. Goodman
Philadelphia, PA

Mahnaz Harrison
Pittsburgh, PA

Ross Harrison
Pittsburgh, PA

Rick Horowitz
Wynnewood, PA

Ruth Horowitz
Wynnewood, PA

Eve Klothen, Esq.
Swarthmore, PA

Joseph Kohn, Esq.
Devon, PA

Dean Kross, M.D.
Pittsburgh, PA

David Landau
Wallingford, PA

Clifford Levine, Esq.
Pittsburgh, PA

Rosanne M. Levine
Pittsburgh, PA

Daniel E. Loeb
Publisher, Philadelphia Jewish Voice
Philadelphia, PA

Cathy Lewis Long
Pittsburgh, PA

Andrea M. Lowenstein
Pittsburgh, PA

Michael E. Lowenstein
Pittsburgh, PA

Jules Mermelstein
Township Commissioner
Upper Dublin, PA

Morey Myers, Esq.
Scranton PA

Sondra Myers
Scranton, PA

Jacob Naveh
Pittsburgh, PA

Todd Reidbord
Pittsburgh, PA

Stephan Rosenfeld
Jenkintown, PA

Jeff Shell
Philadelphia, PA

Laura Shell
Penn Valley, PA

Stephanie Shell
Ardmore, PA

Carl Shuman,
Harrisburg, PA

Alan Siger
Pittsburgh, PA

Patricia Siger
Pittsburgh, PA

Prof. Lawrence Silberstein
Director, Berman Center for Jewish Studies, Lehigh University
Bethlehem, PA

Larry Silverman
Pittsburgh, PA

Roger Simon
Lehigh University
Bethlehem, PA

Jill Stein
Villanova, PA

Lem Tarshis
Blue Bell, PA

Jill Zipin
Philadelphia, PA

Go Hillary.
You are the true fighter for the people.
I thought McCain was just getting his tour STARTED...haven't seen a peep from the media about it. Just goes to show, it had no impact. He's too old for the media to show any interest and when I hear him speak it's like I'm listening to a grandpa waxing poetic about war stories and tax cuts.
Sarah - How can Obama have already lost states that haven't had an election yet?  Plus lets really look at this red state/blue state argument.  Didn't President Reagan win 49 out of 50 states?  And that was when it was a Democrat Controlled Congress.  To automatically assume that Senator Obama will lose certain states is a false assumption.  Plus it seems as though Senator Clinton is trying the same strategy that Gore and Kerry used wich was to go after the big states and ignore the rest.  I think we all know how well that strategy worked for both of them.  


Confused (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 9:55 AM)

---------
You must be in the politically ignorant column because Reagan's electoral landslide happened when he was running for re-election, at at time when he was very very popular, and against a wimpy flawed candidated, Mondale.  If that same election were happending today, Reagan would win by the same electoral landslide, and I would vote for him too, even though I am a dem.
Now I know why James Carville called Bill Richardson JUDAS. Isn't the coversation between Hillary and Richardson confidential. Why Richardson went to the media with what they discuss behind closed door........ he did it because he wants to embarrassed the Clintons.

I've look back in first read archives and I didn't see a story on the TACTICS barck ? obama used to strong arm super delegates to suppport him. Remember John Lewis from Georgia, the obama camp had black radio talk show host with the help of their listeners call John Lewis office and basically threaten him with UNCLE TOM comment, telling him they will pressure the black voters not to vote for him and they had their black surrogates pressure John Lewis to the point where he had to change his e-mail and phone number, so lets be fair and report the DIRTY TACTICS the obama camp is applying to super delegates.

The notion that barack obama can win a major state with large white votes is spin the obama loving media would like us to believe, but the reality is JEREMIAH WRIGHT will not allow that possibility.

Hillary RODHAM Clinton is RIGHT to bring up the jeremiah WRIGHT issue against barack HUSSEIN obama. The praetorian obama worshiping media pundits are treating obama has if he is running to be president of a banana republic or he’s running to be president of MSNBC news department.
Everything good and BAD about the candidates should be put forth so the SUPER DELEGATES and the voting public can decides who is best to lead this country.

“SHOULDN’T ALL THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES GO THROUGH A SECURITY CLEARANCE BEFORE THEY CAN BE PRESIDENT  OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA?”...... just a thought.
.
Only Chris Matthews and Eugene Robinson and some other obama supporting pundits seems to be up in arms over the JEREMIAH WRIGHT issue because their mission is to protect the very naive, inexperience, delicate barack H. obama from the BIG BAD WORLD and the American Voters.

If Chris Matthews is saying he's inspired by barack obama speech, THEN CAN WE SAY barack obama IS INSPIRED BY JEREMIAH WRIGHT SPEECH.

"SHOW ME YOUR FRIENDS AND I'LL TELL YOU WHO YOUR ENEMIES ARE."

The American People aren't stupid, they know who the bad guys are in the world and who obama associates and friends are and who the corrupt media pundits are and their motives, so come April 22 the blowout win by Hillary Clinton will silence all and show the super delegates who can really win in November.  

PREDICTIONS:.... HILLARY WILL TAKE THE LEAD IN POPULAR VOTES AFTER SHE WINS PENNSYLVANIA.


The Mccain "i'm a lifetime ward of the taxpayers" tour is nearly over...didn't this guy ever have a real job? Obviously not from the economic plan he's put forward which can be summmed as...

"I will protect the high flyers on wall street and the rest of America can toughen up you bunch of whiners"...you know, the bushleague economic plan
Did the Hill supporters see that The GOP wants Hill by 65% so they can crush her???
And the dems want Obama by 59% because he is MORE ELECTABLE????
I was mad a little bit that Hillary would tell Bill Richardson that ‘He cannot win”.  So I started playing mathematical games with the general election in November.  I cannot be the only one who is looking at the Electoral College map.  Here are the states I think will go for Obama- 355 total votes; CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, HI, ID, IL, IN, IO, KS, LA, MA, MI, MN, MO, NJ, NM, NY, ND, OH, OR, PA, SC, VA, VE, WA, WI, WV; 29 states.

I think Senator Clinton is wrong.  I would call 355 Electoral College votes a near landslide.  Even if you take out Michigan and Ohio, he still beats McCain handily 318-220.  I have McCain beating you 306-232; and that is with CA & NY padding your number!

What exactly is your problem Hillary?  Maybe I should call you at 3 AM, since that seems a good time to reach you.

Chuck, NY (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 9:33 AM)



When will you quit trying to play Chuck Todd?  You don't know anything more than the next political hack posting here.
It's not really lying if the suckers don't notice

"The problem is not that she exaggerated her record;
the problem is she exaggerated her record and she's
Hillary Clinton,"


From the WSJ:


'...Clinton Slipping on Trust
Blunders About Past Weaken Credibility;
Move to Shift Focus
By AMY CHOZICK
April 1, 2008; Page A6

HARRISBURG, Pa. -- In the weeks before the
Pennsylvania primary, Sen. Hillary Clinton not only
lags Sen. Barack Obama in the race for delegates, she
also is losing ground in her effort to convince voters
that she is trustworthy.

The debate over her record has left Sen. Clinton
confronting her lowest approval rating since April
2006, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll
released last week.

According to the survey, 29% of the approximately
1,000 respondents said they had a very negative
opinion of Sen. Clinton compared with 15% for Sen.
Barack Obama and 12% for Sen. John McCain, the likely
Republican nominee.

A Pew Research survey released last week shows 29% of
Democratic voters describe Sen. Clinton as "phony,"
compared with 14% for Sen. Obama.

For more than a year, the Clinton campaign has tried
to burnish Sen. Clinton's image, and early last month,
the strategy appeared to be paying off. A stronger
approval rating helped Sen. Clinton score victories in
the Ohio and Texas primaries, though Sen. Obama picked
up more delegates in Texas.

The New York senator suffered a setback last week when
she admitted to overstating the danger she had faced
on a 1996 trip to Bosnia as first lady. The incident
sparked allegations that she had exaggerated her role
on other issues, such as the Northern Ireland peace
process, opposing the North American Free Trade
Agreement and bringing health insurance to children.

Everhart Flenory, 67, a retired steelworker in New
Kensington, Pa., said he used to be a Clinton
supporter but plans to vote for Sen. Obama in the
state's April 22 primary. "I've lost all my love for
the Clintons," Mr. Flenory says. "Why'd she have to
lie?"

Clinton campaign image maker Mandy Grunwald and Ann
Lewis, head of women's outreach, are working to
re-establish voters' trust in Sen. Clinton, campaign
aides say. In a new online video entitled "Help us
show our strength," Clinton supporters share
testimonials, and Sen. Clinton delivers a message,
thanking voters for their confidence.

The campaign is also trying to shift focus away from
recent debates over Sen. Clinton's record and toward
the economy, an issue many voters say she more firmly
grasps than Sen. Obama. Monday, Sen. Clinton held an
economic roundtable in Harrisburg, and she talked
about a tax-cut plan for the middle class at an event
in Fairless Hills, Pa., near Philadelphia.


She also laid out a plan calling for stricter
regulation of Wall Street investment banks, broader
consumer protection on credit cards and student loans
and additional measures to curb the foreclosure
crisis.

Pennsylvania is a must-win state for Sen. Clinton, who
is behind in the race for delegates. Sen. Obama leads
in the overall delegate count, with 1,623 to Sen.
Clinton's 1,499, according to the Associated Press.
About 2,025 are needed to win the nomination.

"We've always said from the beginning of the race that
our challenge is to change the perception a lot of
people already have," Clinton campaign spokesman Mo
Elleithee said.

Some observers said the Clinton campaign has a tough
road ahead.

"The problem is not that she exaggerated her record;
the problem is she exaggerated her record and she's
Hillary Clinton," said Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic
political consultant who worked for former President
Clinton....'



The KEY to winning every general election is winning independent voters.

It's back to the basics politics.  Democrats will be Democrats and Republicans will be Republicans.  You MUST win independent votes to win the general election.  Obama wins independent votes over McCain.  McCain wins them over Clinton.  That makes Clinton a HUGE risk to the Democratic party in November.

Back to the basics, Democrats, back to the basics.
OK, California is my native state and there is no way that CA will not go for Obama if he is the nominee.  California is a state of inclusion (if you exclude those Republican strongholds in Orange County) and Obama's support will be deep and wide there.

(I agree with the poster that says these maps are way to early but fun to speculate, no?).

Lisa (a California girl now living in CT)
Sarah in CO.
I am from OHIO please do not think that my state will not vote for Obama in November!
We have a democrat as gov. and just because he supported Hillary does not mean that come the fall if Obama is the nominee that he would not back him!
I think everyone is getting way ahead of themselves here. Has anyone considered the fact that Obama will have time to campaign in the states he needs to win in Nov? Has he NOT closed the gap in almost every major contest thus far? Why would you think the GE would be any different? Hasn't his campaign run a well-oiled machine, considering this was Hillary's race to lose and lose she is? Do NOT underestimate Obama and his team. I have faith that he will pull this off and be the first African American President of the United States and we ALL will have a part in getting him there! This is how politics SHOULD be!
Diane from Illinois (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:05 AM


The only thing I get out of your post is that your voting for Obama for the sole purpose of having the first African American President.  Obviously things like being the best choice are secondary in your considerations.
Well lets see:  Who do I believe--Richardson or Hillary? Hillary has lied about NAFTA, Sniper-fire, Ireland, etc.  Richardson is an honest man with no history of falsehoods.  WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF WATCHING THE WHEELS FALL OFF THE HILLARY CAMPAIGN WAGON. All the signs and symptoms are there. That's a fact.


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