First thoughts: Two different maps

Posted: Thursday, April 03, 2008 9:26 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Two different maps: On TODAY and Morning Joe, NBC’s Tim Russert took at a stab at November’s electoral map. And this morning, we do the same, to show how different Clinton’s and Obama’s paths to 270 are. This is where we start, and we will be updating this regularly between now and November.
Obama vs. McCain
Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT, WA (168 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: NJ, MN, OR, WI (42)
Toss-up: CO, IA, MI, MO, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA (112)
Lean McCain: AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, MT, NC (81)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, ID, IN, KS, KY, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (135)

Clinton vs. McCain
Base Clinton: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT (172)
Lean Clinton: AR, MN, OR, WA, WI (44)
Toss-up: FL, IA, MI, NM, NH, OH, PA (101)
Lean McCain: CO, LA, MO, NV, VA (47)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, MS, MT, NE, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (174)

*** Mixing and matching: Obviously, there's a lot of mixing and matching one can do, as Russert did this morning. Check out how Obama can win without BOTH Ohio and Florida, as long as he wins Kerry's states plus Colorado and Virginia. Or toss in New Mexico, Iowa, and Nevada and he can lose Michigan, too. Clinton's path looks more traditional as long as she doesn't lose Oregon or Wisconsin. If she adds Ohio or Florida and loses Oregon, she can get it back by adding Arkansas. If she carries Oregon, but loses Wisconsin, she'll need Florida and Arkansas; Ohio and Arkansas won't do it. And as Russert pointed out, it's a bit too easy, again, to get to 269-269 -- meaning no candidate gets 270 and the election goes to the Dem-controlled House. In that scenario, by the way, each delegation gets one vote, so the formula is not cut-and-dried. And there would be pressure on some lawmakers to vote their state instead of their party. Sound familiar? Oy…

VIDEO: Hillary Clinton reportedly says only she, and not Barack Obama, can win again John McCain. NBC’s Tim Russert looks at the issue.

*** Hillary’s Mountain West problem? Is it just us, or does right now seem a lot like the weeks leading into Ohio and Texas, when Obama was picking up a superdelegate or two per day? Yesterday, Obama got two more of them: Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal and former Montana Sen. John Melcher. While these are two more superdelegates for Obama, they also represent Clinton’s problems west of the Mississippi. In the past couple of election cycles, Democrats have made huge gains in the Mountain West (in Colorado and Montana, especially). And these elected officials seem to be gravitating toward Obama, not Clinton. Her numbers are not great in Colorado or Oregon; Bill Clinton was never overly popular out in the Mountain West. Could that Bill hangover be hurting Hillary?

*** He said, they said: This discussion of the electoral map gains even more relevancy today with the report that Hillary told Bill Richardson that Obama “can’t win.” This version of events apparently took place in the days/hours right before Richardson went public with his Obama support. According to one source familiar with the Richardson-HRC conversation, she repeatedly told him Obama couldn't win. But this wasn't the only Obama electability conversation the Clintons and Richardson apparently had. A source with knowledge of earlier conversations between the Clintons and Richardson tells NBC News that it was Richardson who insisted to the Clintons that Obama could not win because of his inexperience. This source adds that Richardson repeatedly said that to both of them as the reason he wasn’t going to endorse Obama because he was “Not ready -- can’t win.” However, this took place in and around Super Tuesday. So the he-said, they-said on this issue continues. No doubt the bad blood between the New Mexico governor and the Clintons has only gotten worse. Actually, it's likely that both sides are speaking the truth: Richardson may have believed Obama couldn't win on Feb. 5, but was convinced differently after Obama went on his 11-contest winning streak.

*** John’s excellent adventure: Has McCain's bio tour worked? He ends it tomorrow in Memphis, which could be his most high-profile event, where he attends the events surrounding the anniversary of MLK's assassination. But what did McCain gain this week? The tour received some attention in newscasts and newspaper articles -- but nothing compared with what the latest dramas in the Clinton-Obama race attracted. The tour certainly hasn’t hurt McCain. But did it help him? Just asking: What if they unveiled his bio each day at stops in three key states like Michigan, Florida, and Iowa? McCain is weaker in Iowa than a Republican should be and has ground to make up there. Also, stumping in Florida and Michigan would only serve as a chance to stick a finger in the eyes of the Democrats regarding their delegate dispute in those two states.

*** McCain tour, Day 4: The fourth leg of McCain’s “Service to America” tour takes him to Jacksonville, FL. Per NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy, McCain lived there with his first wife and three children upon returning from his first tour in Vietnam upon the ill-fated Forrestal. When he shipped out again -- eventually to be shot down and taken prisoner in North Vietnam -- his family remained in Jacksonville and were cared for by the soldiers stationed at Cecil Field, the location of today’s speech. “My family lived here before I went to war, and this is the place I came home to after the war,” McCain will say, according to excerpts of his remarks. “We lived here again in 1974 for two years, when I was Executive Officer, and then Commanding Officer of VA 174, the Replacement Air Group at Cecil Field… This place was never more special to me than during my unexpectedly long deployment overseas, when the good people of this place looked after my family in my absence. I have always been indebted to Florida friends and neighbors in Orange Park for taking such good care of my family while I was away.”

*** On the trail: Clinton raises money in Beverly Hills, CA and then appears on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno; Obama is down in Chicago; Bill Clinton campaigns in Altoona, PA, then heads to Kentucky (May 20 primary); and Chelsea Clinton stumps in Pennsylvania.

Countdown to Pennsylvania: 19 days
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 33 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 215 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 292 days

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Comments

I believe Nebraska and Maine appportion electoral college votes based on congressional district, and that Obama is projected to win at least one of the Nebraska votes.

Jeff, Cincinnati, OH (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:28 AM)

Well lets see: Who do I believe--Richardson or Hillary? Hillary has lied about NAFTA, Sniper-fire, Ireland, etc. Richardson is an honest man with no history of falsehoods. WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF WATCHING THE WHEELS FALL OFF THE HILLARY CAMPAIGN WAGON. All the signs and symptoms are there. That's a fact.

Ron Indiana (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:28 AM)

Morning Joe desperately wants to find a way to diminish Obama. Between his daily rants and obsession with Wright and trying to make the polls read in Clinton's favor, the man is becoming so transparent and pathetic.
Rightwing tool is laying on the pro Hillary so thick hoping voters actually buy it.
Too bad he cannot face the reality of the fact that his party is going to be facing Obama

diane (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:31 AM)

-----------------------------------------------------
QUESTION.--- WHY IS IT SO HARD FOR THE HILLARY SUPPORTERS TO UNDERSTAND & ACCEPT OBAMA'S PERSONAL LOYALTY TO HIS PASTOR ... WHILE BILL CLINTON & JAMES CARVILLE FIND GOV. RICHARDSON'S 'ALLEGED' DIS-LOYALTY TO THE CLINTONS UNACCEPTABLE. --- CARVILLE HAS ECHOED BILL CLINTONS SENTIMENT THAT "LOYALTY" IS EVERYTHING TO A POLITICIAN --- (EXCEPT WHEN IT IS OBAMA'S LOYALTY TO HIS PASTOR). ----- THAT IS TYPICAL CLINTON HYPOCRISY -----.

TYPICAL CLINTON HYPOCRISY -----. eh, az (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:31 AM)

From a Latino’s point of view… maybe I am wrong… but…
Some people here don’t realize the reality of this election, like in many others. We get into argument and fight for our preference, but the reality is that most of those who are fighting, defending their candidate KNOW NOTHING about them. They get feed and instructed by the media and start repeating everything they hear but without any based.

The whole country is talking about Obama as a great candidate, but is really Obama that great? Well, for the media’s purpose, yes, he is. WHY?

This country is not ready for a female or black president, but, at this point, the media, (controlled by a group of white, macho men) is pushing for Obama, because he is a men, no because he is so great, or because he has done anything extraordinary, but they prefer to push for another male figure and no a female, because at the end, the presidency is for MEN, NO WOMEN. So, let’s get ready of the female candidate using the black male.

What would happen if Obama win the nomination? The media is going to answer this question, DO WE REALLY WANT A BLACK FOR PRESIDENT? Answer: of course no. lets then works for McCain, and the result will be that Obama, the great sensation, the great speaker, will become the scapegoat. The media is going to play and clean the floor with him, because they are not going to support a black man for president.

So, for all of you, Obama supporters, don’t get too excited. If you really look the candidates, you will be talking differently, but, MOST AMERICAN CANT DO THAT, WHY? BECAUSE THEY DON’T READ, THEY DON’T EDUCATE THEMSELVE, THEY DON’T THINK, THEY LET THE EMOTION TO CONTROL THEIR CHOICE AND THE MEDIA IS GOOD USING THAT FACT.

PLEASE, don’t lets the media fool you, OBAMA IS A PRODUCT OF THE MEDIA AND THE AFRICAN AMERICAN; they are so excited with the idea of having a black president for first time. But the fact is that AA only won’t elect a president. My conclusion is that if American people stop been so emotional about it and think, they will support more Hillary Clinton.

p.s. sorry for my English...

from a Latino... Madrid...Spain (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:34 AM)

squitz, thank you. Best of luck in PA on 4/22. You may be right - but I wanted to expose this radio station. They are awful.

Obama/Webb - 2008

Pat, Boston, MA (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:35 AM)

from a latino MAdrid Spain (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:37 AM)

Linda. Boston, MA:
*******************************************
NEWS!!! JIMMY CARTER will most likely endorse Obama!!!!
*******************************************

http://www.thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=107611

"We are very interested in the primaries. Don’t forget that Obama won in my state of Georgia. My town which is home to 625 people is for Obama, my children and their spouses are pro- Obama. My grandchildren are also pro- Obama. As a Super Delegate, I would not disclose who I am rooting for but I leave you to make that guess..." -JIMMY CARTER ..'

This is GREAT NEWS !
I like Jimmy Carter
(I didn't when he was President)

He spent his post Presidential days building housing for the poor and working for human rights
I really respect his comments about the Palestinians

What First Read DIDN'T MENTION in their supposed Electoral counts......

Obama WILL BE THE NOMINEE
Obama leads in PLEDGED DELEGATES by 13%
It's almost inconceivable tha Billary could catch up
For all practical purposes...... SHE CAN'T

Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee

Running against the Clintons and their DNC sleeper cells has been harder than running against John McCain

Never underestimate the power of Republican STUPIDITY

Obama '08
Integrity counts
Honesty counts
Character counts

Sierra, SF (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:37 AM)

Here come the maps as the Media trys and trys to show how divided the country still is....if both sides can EVER work together, I agree with Obama that we just may get something done in this country. In other words....the stupid stuff we worry about....months and months and months away from the November voting...

Barbara C, - Pompano Beach, FL (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:37 AM)

http://www.thevaneljournal.com

what is not being discussed here is that Obama, with his fundraising apparatus, will be able to compete in all 50 states forcing McCain to spend time and money in traditional red states

NC,TN and IN are just three examples where he can put pressure on McCain.

VA is more of a purple state and with Web and Kaine as supporters, Obama can win this state.

Gov. Napolitano will help Obama in NV, but FLA maybe a challenge especially if Crist is named VP

thevaneljournal.com (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:38 AM)

A neutral superdelegate who was in the room for that meeting called the Chronicle's take "a bit exaggerated." But there is no question the Clintons are passionately arguing their case against Obama in what is fast becoming an intense race not just for the votes of the public but of the Democratic elite known as superdelegates.

Will Bill Clinton's argument 'Barack Obama Can't Win'; win over Super-Delegates?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=2023

.

dblake Austin (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:38 AM)

Sen. Obama will probably lose a few votes to the more conservative, and/or racist people who will not vote for him regardless of his plans for the country, but I'm sure our campaign has weighed in all of these factors. I have faith that Americans will take into consideration the issues and whose plans are best suited for them and our country. I'm pretty sure that we'll choose Obama (if he is the Dem. nominee), over McCain in 2008!

KJ, Dallas, TX (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:39 AM)

time for the Dem party to show the hillbillys the door.These people don't care that they are bring down the party as they go along on there losing way,They are on a misssion to take this to a new level of slime ball tatics,This is going to get worse and the slime slinging is about to become unbearable.They have nothing to lose,they will be bringing up the Wright issue everyday from now till they drop out.You can bet the house on this.

jesse St.Paul Minnesota (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:42 AM)

The TRUTH Hurts: '...But it IS The TRUTH, and as we all know.....'

The TRUTH is: HILLARY CAN'T WIN THE NOMINATION !!
She's 13% behind in pledged delegates

'...A Pew Research survey released last week shows 29% of Democratic voters describe Sen. Clinton as "phony," compared with 14% for Sen. Obama.

For more than a year, the Clinton campaign has tried
to burnish Sen. Clinton's image, and early last month, the strategy appeared to be paying off. A stronger approval rating helped Sen. Clinton score victories in the Ohio and Texas primaries, though Sen. Obama picked up more delegates in Texas.

The New York senator suffered a setback last week when she admitted to overstating the danger she had faced on a 1996 trip to Bosnia as first lady. The incident sparked allegations that she had exaggerated her role on other issues, such as the Northern Ireland peace process, opposing the North American Free Trade Agreement and bringing health insurance to children....'

Her credibility is shot with DEMOCRATS !!
26% think she's a phony

The TRUTH is: Barack Obama is inevitable

Barack Obama will be your next President

Does that hurt ?

Sierra, SF (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:43 AM)

Does Hillary have a Mountain West problem? She definitely does in Boise, where she did not even meet the 15% threshold to get delegates in either of the two Ada County caucuses. Her supporters were a handful of white haired old women, led by Frank Church's widow. While she is a home-town heroine, she couldn't find a good reason to vote for Clinton, other than that Billary had given her son a job.

Idahoans are anxious to get to the polls and replace that creepy Sen. Larry Craig. While they're there, a lot of them will cross the line and vote for Obama. That won't happen if Hillary is the candidate.

Idaho (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:45 AM)

Ok Chuck, NY,

I've saved your dumbass electoral college map and plan of posting it over and over on the November 4th when your number turn out the be so out of left field and WRONG.

I mean really, there are plenty of political experts who say that it would be close and it's just too hard to call given the fact that McCain at one point had been counted out and is now the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party and given the up and down back and forth between Obama and Clinton, but you for some reason seem to know something that no one else konws.

What a guiness you must be.

GIVE ME BREAK.

But that's Ok because on November 4th when you end up being WRONG, and you will be wrong, I'll take your rediculous electoral map and post it over and over and over.

Give me a break (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:47 AM)

Joan, I am disappointed in Tim Russert. THERE IS NO WAY THE DEMS WIN FL. GOV CRIST HAS A >70% APPROVAL RATING. He is a man of the people. He took a centerist position on Insurance that won the hearts of Floridians. That means Clinton has no chance of winning.

AC in LA, CA (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:47 AM)

Diane from Illinois: '...I think everyone is getting way ahead of themselves here. Has anyone considered the fact that Obama will have time to campaign in the states he needs to win in Nov? Has he NOT closed the gap in almost every major contest thus far? Why would you think the GE would be any different?...'

Thank you, Diane
Obama's team kicked the stuffings out of the vaunted 'Clinton machine'

The BIG PICTURE is:

Obama is ahead by 13% of the pledged delegates
He WILL WIN the nomination

The electibility crap is just Clinton talking points
Thanks, First Read.. the is better than just printing Clinton press releases.....

Sierra, SF (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:48 AM)

Barring any unforeseen circumstance, which holds true for every canditate, if he's true to form, Obama's number will rise, as soon as we let him out of the gate, with the nomination.

Pulling for Obama '08

donna, pgh. pa. (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:48 AM)

Sarah in CO,

Your wrong and let me tell everyone here that Colorado will go Democrat. You probably have lunch with Dobson down their in the Springs with views like that. Colorado Republicans voted for Romney in the primaries, which shows you how much they know.

Obama had the people on the ground all over the place here. People in Colorado are tired of the Republican philosophy. Not even Tancredo will stop Colorado going Democrat. We will give CO to Obama and we will take back a Senate seat in CO when we elect Mark Udall.

Colorado Will Turn Blue

Dan, Denver, Colorado (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:50 AM)

Its amazing how some people are falling for this Change motto. Obama isn't changing anything. He is doing what others have done- saying one thing and then doing another. He talks against Nafta then tells the Canadians not to worry -its just campaign talk. When he is confronted with it he lies until there is evidence, then he give another speech to cover it up. He tells you he worked for slumlord Rezko for "5 hours"- another lie, there is a long association between them and hundreds of thousands of dollars in deals and influence. He says he didnt hear racist Pastor Wrights cursing of American and the n when he is confronted with the evidence he gives another speech to actually defend that church. He takes money from gas and oil companies and then says he will not be controlled by lobbyists. He is for the "people voting" but then tries to stop the Florida vote because he lost here after camapaigning on T.V. He says he is for Health care and the poor yet his wife works for the Univ of Chicago hospital that charges minorities without insurance 5 times more than whites with it. Michelle says she came from a poor background, yet her upper middle calss brick home shows what a farce that is. Obama was handed legislation in illinois and he claimed it as his own after others had worked hard on it- he steam rolled others there and then spit in their face. He says he was "against the war but has voted numerous times to keep on funding it and he even voted aginst troop withdrawals. Wake up people. The list goes on and on. Who knows what the Republicans will dig up on him when they are backed to the wall.

jimbo palm beach, fl (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:52 AM)

REd state? Blue state? purple, swing, flip state?

How about the United States?

Only ONE candidate thinks of us that way.

United states.

Obama 08

obama 08 (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:58 AM)

Since most people haven't noticed, this is not a conventional race with conventional maps.Obama has changed the game for the Democrats & made them competitive in much more states.We all know the blue states will automatically go Obama.I think to everyone's surprise he'll pull an upset with IN(IL's neighbor).When Obama first started this race they said he could not win the predominantly white states which he did.The pundits can predict all they want, but I think he will do much better than anuyone expects.What the pundits don't understand is that most people would vote for Mickey Mouse over 100 years of war.And McCain makes Rev Wright look like an angel.

Sunshine, Peoria IL (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 10:58 AM)

sarah...

I too live in El Paso County and I'd like to know where these 7 installations you're referencing are?

I can list Pete, Schriever and Ft. Carson. Buckley is in Denver. Although this is besides the point, you're obviously a Clintonite... please, if you're going to post, post something of substance.

Obama won this state due to change and his movement among the younger voters. The Rev. Wright ordeal would have had a MINOR sway, but Obama was able to quell the situation by making his race speech. Alot of Colorado residence who attend church know they shouldn't judge Obama by his pastor's ramblings.. because they are all too aware of the mess that surfaced within the past year at the New Life Church. Which by the way didn't hurt the turnout one iota.

With that said, there are alot of republicans in this state but they are VERY, VERY conservative and don't care for McCain and probably won't show up. I tend to think anytime a party has enthusiasm (like the Dems), they win. If you haven't noticed, dems are turning out about 2 to one during the primaries

ya know (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:00 AM)

The different maps are quite interesting because it shows that the argument that Hillary is making that she is much stronger in the electoral map is not true. Plus, here's the unknown quantity that I know the Clinton camp doesn't project but is true--I think it's a pretty strong fallacy to suggest that just because a state went for Clinton that it will automatically go to McCain if she is not the nominee and vice versa with Obama. I think this is why how the primary contest ends is so important. If there is a way for this to end without the appearance of a backroom deal, I think that most of both candidate's supporters will back the other candidate. However, in a year with an opponent like McCain who has a long history of independent thinking and action, the appearance of impropriety in settling the nomination could definitely pose a threat for the independent and Moderate vote.

Holli, Oklahoma City, OK (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:03 AM)

Hillary can't win. She is losing face. She is way past the embryonic and decomposed stages. The truth is Hillary's legislative experience point to empty calories. Obama's legislative experience is far more qualitative than her's. Hillary's nothing accomplishments should not be glossed over.
The truth is Hillary's legislative experience point to lies. Obama's legislative experience is far more qualitative. Many people seem to have problems regarding Senator Obama's eloquent speech. On this rocky rhetoric Obama... stated it has substance. Rocky lost. There is the fundamental difference between Rocky and Hillary. Hillary is a lying loser. Rocky had a fight for the good. Hillary's is not; only power and a change to answer the call of polarization. Rocky didn’t deliberately lie or cheat. Hillary has/does.
So is Hillary finally admitting the truth in simple terms e.g. that her crusade is lost?

Hillary you're fighting the wrong fight. Obama has cut into your superdelegates!
Go Obama!

Beverly, Chicago (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:04 AM)

BO has not even won 50% of the Democratic Party vote. He has performed best in small caucuses which do not happen in the GE. He is behind in OH, PA, FL, MI, VA. Things may change but how can anybody be talking landslide?

Alan, NJ (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:04 AM)

What the Clintons are saying is that Obama is unelectable because he is black. They are so surprised that he is where he is because he is black and they are hoping that the American electorate "is not ready" for a black president. That is why surrogates are saying that he is only where he is because he is black-- they are shell shocked too. Richardson probably thought so too, as I did (I am African-American), until he started winning those primaries. The American electorate may be more progressive than the Clintons think-- or maybe not. November will be the true test. Regardless, he should be the nominee. If he is not, it will be a sad day in the Democratic party.

Obama 08

Sylvia in Ohio (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:04 AM)

If Indiana goes to anyone but McCain, I will eat my hat.

Mike, Arlington, VA (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:06 AM)

Chuck and friends.... don't count Indiana in the McCain column just yet - we have a republican govenor that has approval ratings rivaling Bush. That could have an effect on the presidential outcome as well... those voting against Mitch Daniels could impact the totals.

Mrs R, Martinsville, IN (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:07 AM)

jj: It doesn't surprise me one bit that that's all you got out of my post! I'm encouraged that you can read! Keep practing; you'll only get wiser.

Diane from Illinois (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:09 AM)

Get this North Dakota survey - the only one done so far:

Obama - 46, McCain - 42

McCain - 54, Clinton -35

I wouldn't place an even-money bet that Obama will carry North Dakota, but it's in play. He's here tomorrow and the whole state is electrified.

This is the pattern throughout the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains, Obama runs 20-30 points better than Clinton - and every politician in the region knows it. All the superdelegates in the region are going for Obama.

40 years DemNPL (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:09 AM)

These are some very foolish comments by the Clinton side today. NY and CA would fall into the ocean before they vote Republican! I have a few family members that are currently serving in the military specifically the Marines and the sentiment throughout the bases is NO to McCain. The families are strained and sick and McCain will have an impossible task convincing them to stay the course. Sarah, your argument is flawed. Since your part of Colorado has so many military installations, I doubt they would let the Rev. Wright issue outweigh having a chance to bring their loved ones home. You try watching your brother, wife, husband, etc. go off to Iraq for a 3rd tour in the meantime while going to the funerals of one of your friends who passed away in Kandahar or Tikrit and you tell me that Rev. Wright is going to change the families' minds. People are sick of this war and the choice is clear that Sen. Obama gives us the best chance to leave responsibly.

Maybe Sen. Obama would lose OH. I'm sure that the GOP will make an appeal to every Archie Bunker in the area. This area of the country has been devastated by NAFTA and we know that McCain has no plan at all for the economy so he should lose here. If the worst in us is brought out maybe a few shortsighted folks in Ohio could tip the scale. The counter for this would be win LA, IA, VA, and ND. McCain has a money problem and Obama would force him to overextend and have to defend a majority of his base states. It is very likely that Obama could win in a landslide.

C.K. Steele Fort Lauderdale, FL (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:10 AM)

Obama wins the following: CA, NV OR, WA, NM, CO, ND, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, PA, NY, ME, VT, NH, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC and TX

... a total of 311 Electorial Votes.

He will bring home states with heavily black and latino populations and will run the coasts (east and west).

ya know (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:24 AM)

Well I agree with Joan, Chicago, IL. and The Truth
Hurts. Why do people on just sicking what Hillery
did and what Obama did, they just drop it. Well to
the Jewish people in Philly and so forth in Pa. I come
From South Philly and very proud of it. Why are all of
you people voting for Obama? With me it is not race
card it is experience,experience,experience. Can all
of you people see what happened for the last eight
of George Bush. I did not vote for him because no
experience. And see what happened to our country.
I love my country I do not want it to go down. Please
think America about our country. Be senseable when
you go vote. Don't listen to the media & the
Politicans.

anna oriolo, Lady Lake,fla. (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:29 AM)

I suspect that the Carville comments will backfire against the Clintons. No one wants to feel "owned" by their former boss. If someone has given you a job, that
doesn't mean that you have to be their serf for life. Carville may not have the guts to be his own man, but most of the SD's are going to want to believe that they are party leaders, not serfs.

Idaho (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:30 AM)

Hillary's electoral college math is all screwed up. She's still thinking of the way it happened 4 and 8 years ago and she's trying to just run that losing 50% +1 strategy once again.

Obama on the other hand has gotten smart and decided to contest every state, that's why he's whipping Clinton in so many states. Obama has the winning strategy for November and all Hillary is doing now is helping Tailhook Johnny make it closer than it should be.

Time for Hillary to accept reality and do what's good for the party. If she quits early enough she'll be regarded well by fellow Dems but the longer she delays making the smart decision the worse her position will be in the future of our party.

Go Obama!

Eric, Salinas, CA (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:33 AM)

Good lord, the Obama supporters are dillusional, he will not change the electoral map and will loose a few states along the way, someone just listed that Obama would win Texas, that is so funny... He won't win a single southern state...

If I were Hillary i'd burn down the Democratic party, Bill brought the DNC back to life in the 90's, and now most democrats have turned on them...

The Truth Hurts (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:37 AM)

Pat, Boston - thanks for the good wishes. We're going to win PA, maybe by just a point, but we'll do it. People love to feel important in PA, we have an inferiority complex, so getting to make a decision (especially if it goes against the more famous big states) is a big deal for us. I got 5 new Democrats registered in my family and I'm not alone :-) Sorry to get testy, I'm a little hyped up today!

squintz, philly, pa (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:39 AM)

Wow. All you Obama supporters disgust me. Of course he cannot win, and he can't carry any states like CA, MI, FLA, OH, or NY. The fact is that the only reason he got this far is because people got swept up in the momentum. It suddenly became "cool" to like a candidate with absolutely no idea how to run a country. And McCain will simply crush Obama with endless attacks. Obama went to church every Sunday, and he's smart enough to know what his pastor was saying! If he was really patriotic, he wouldn't have come every Sunday to listen to the anti-white, anti-American crap that came out of the Rev.'s mouth unless he actually believed it himself! The truth hurts, kind of like it will when we get another Republican elected for president because we were to stupid to see facts.

The Truth, Chicago, Illinois (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:45 AM)

Hey "The TRUTH Hurts" I don't know what planet you live on but it is very clear that you don't know very much about politics. Obama is going to win California and New York just fine and anyone who tells you other wise must have a good stash of something on hand because that argument is crazy talk. McCain is going to win Florida no matter who the Democratic nominee is which is why it is probably not such a good idea to focus all our efforts on that state. If you want to support Hillary here is a hint: Ohio. She will do better in Ohio than either McCain or Obama. It hardly matters with the states Obama can win but that is her ace in the hole so focus on that.

Anyway, Clinton is never going to get elected in a general if she can't even win the series of primaries and she won't win against a Republican who can grab independents. Not only that but can you imagine how stupid she will look talking "experience" with McCain. It may be an argument when debating Obama but it will seems nutty against McCain. You just can't run the '92 Bill Clinton triangulation-hawkish-democrat campaign against John McCain since he has already started running it himself. Not only that but I very much doubt after all the hostile crazy talk towards Bill Richardson that he will be able, even if he is willing, to help her in New Mexico where she won a narrow win and where John McCain will have an easy time cleaning up. I also believe she will have to spend so much money to win Iowa and since she can't control her campaigns money too well that won't help a thing. If anything this lay out is too kind to her. It isn't just possible that she will lose if she finds a way to cheat and be the nominee- SHE WILL LOSE. Sorry, that's the way it goes.

Nick, Austin, Texas (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:45 AM)

Barack Obama for President of the UNITED States of America.

PulSamsara (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 11:48 AM)

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