PA Poll: Clinton 49, Obama 41

Posted: Thursday, April 03, 2008 4:48 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: 2008, Clinton

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
A new Strategic Vision (R) poll shows Clinton ahead 49% to 41% with Obama having gained ground in the past two weeks. This poll was conducted March 28-30, but the last Strategic Vision poll from March 7 to 9 showed Clinton leading Obama 56% to 38%. While Strategic Vision is not overly experienced at polling the state, this is consistent with other recent polls.

The bad news in the poll for Obama is that he's trailing McCain in Pennsylvania by five points, 47% to 42%, while Clinton is leading the Arizona senator, 47% to 41%.

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Comments

Obamav. McCain, Clinton v. McCain-type polls are meaningless until after each party's convention.

Joe Bob Halley, Floydada, TX (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 4:55 PM)

Ok now HRC will use this poll,
but when the polls show that Obama is ahead of her the polls don`t mean anything.
What a bunch of CRAP!!

go Obama '08

BIGOLDTEXAN (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 4:55 PM)

He won't win PA in the Primary, nor would he win in the General if he gets the nomination.

No they can't

Obama can't win (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 4:56 PM)

HRC will take PA by 15 points EASY - by the time it is all said and done :-)

PA Voter (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 4:56 PM)

what about the other poll that shows O only 2 pts down? and this one is the older poll

mike (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 4:57 PM)

what about the other poll that shows O only 2 pts down? and this one is the older poll

mike (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 4:57 PM)

There is no bad news for Obama. Only for the media.

patty, sd, ca (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 4:59 PM)

How come this isnt on MSNBC???

Thursday, April 3, 2008 (AP)

WASHINGTON - Former President Carter wouldn't quite say it, but he left little doubt this week about who he'd like to see in the White House next year.

Speaking to local reporters Wednesday on a trip to Nigeria, the former Democratic president noted that Barack Obama had won his home state of Georgia and his hometown of Plains.

"My children and their spouses are pro-Obama. My grandchildren are also pro-Obama," he said at a news conference, according to the Nigerian newspaper This Day. "As a superdelegate, I would not disclose who I am rooting for, but I leave you to make that guess."

Carter's spokeswoman confirmed the remarks.

Asked about the comments, Hillary Rodham Clinton's communications director, Howard Wolfson, said: "Both Senator Clinton and President Clinton have a great deal of respect for President Carter and have enjoyed their relationship with him over the years. And, obviously, he is free to make whatever decision he thinks is appropriate."

Asked if there was concern that Carter would be regarded as particularly influential, Wolfson said Carter is "clearly a distinguished former leader of our party and is a superdelegate. And I'm sure that people will be interested in the choice that he makes. But no, nothing beyond that."

Carter is one of 13 Georgia Democratic superdelegates - elected officials and party elders who have a vote at the national convention this August in Denver and are free to support the candidate of their choice.

Only three of those have not said who they support: Carter, state Rep. Jim Marshall, and former Rep. Richard Ray, who is president of the Georgia chapter of the AFL-CIO.

Among those who have committed, Obama holds a 7-3 lead.

Carter was in Nigeria for a ceremony celebrating a reduction in Guinea worm disease in West Africa.

-------

Associated Press Writer Ann Sanner contributed to this report.

ejh (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:01 PM)

Again, Obama is weaker in the swing states. You can't win without Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, and Obama loses in all three.

Who wants to win the White House? I know I do.

Clinton/Obama '08

Shtuey (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:01 PM)

PA is Clinton country.

Clinton = Economy

Obama = Black America

McCain = AARP

Pam in North Carolina (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:01 PM)

http://twocanpete.blogspot.com/
Obama should have started running the adds about bring our jobs back from Communist China a month ago. There's still time though if he'll keep hammering away.

twocanpete (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:02 PM)

McCain?! McCain who?!?!

I doubt very seriously if those polled are paying any attention to McCain and the Republican party right now. They may have favorable opinions of him now, but I guarantee those polled have very little knowledge of McCain's positions and policies.

AJ, IL (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:02 PM)

Isn't it interesting that everywhere Obama campaigns, he gains. The more people see of him and his campaign, the more they like him.

We're going to win in November. It's not him ... it's us - just ask him.

Bismarck (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:03 PM)

Whatever....Stratic Vision is not overly experienced and pretty much sucks, but we' re gonna go ahead and throw these number up here anyway....ladedededa.

Don' t you guys have better resources...i don' t know, mabye one that IS overly experienced.

Geez...

umm, what? (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:08 PM)

It's not bad news for Obama at all, because by August, a few months after Hillary has conceded the race, the overwhelming majority of her supporters will vote for and work hard for the Democratic nominee.

We have to remember that the old Democratic machines in certain big states is all Clinton has had going for her in this election against Obama, along with the positive last name ID in the minds of stalwart Democratic voters. Those are the two most likely groups on the planet to support the Democratic nominee. Consequently, Obama's poll numbers can be expected to go up this summer in general election polls, and until McCain can find a single PA poll that puts him at 50%, he shouldn't assume that a Republican has the map on his side to win Pennsylvania against any Democrat this year.

Shadow, Hamden, CT (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:09 PM)

Clinton is Obama's opponent right now. The polls are breaking for him against her. No need to sweat McCain just yet.

Sierra,

What's your take on this? I greatly appreciate your knowledge, and research. Thank you for helping to keep some of us who need your help more informed. That goes for First Read, as well as, the rest of you with postings, more factual in content. Please keep your posts coming.

Pulling for Obama '08

donna, pgh., pa. (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:11 PM)

Head-to-heads just don't make that much sense in such a heated primary. There is just too much emotional baggage in such questions. Generics make more sense and often show very different results.

Susan, Yonkers, NY (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:12 PM)

Whatever...McCain does not stand a chance in the General Election against any democrat this year. This is a democrat year!
What about the new voters and independents? Is this factored in?
When was this poll taken? I guess we will spin to the end!

Michelle Zee (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:15 PM)

Can't recall if you've listed the more recent PPP and Insider Advantage polls, one with Obama up 2 points--45/43--and the other with Clinton up 45/43.

rita forte (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:19 PM)

THIS IS GREAT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!

Bill Bonnett, Albia, IA (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:20 PM)

Let's see how those polls look after Hillary releases her taxes. Err...you haven't forgotten about that tax info have you, Hill?

Daniel S (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:21 PM)

OBAMA CANNOT WIN IN A GENERAL ELECTION AGAINST MCCAIN

SORRY OBAMA LOVERS

JOE SMITH (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:22 PM)

I like to see this thing end with a unified democratic party. Then A demo as president

kirt Kansas City Mo (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:24 PM)

Obama leads in pledged delegates - Hillary can't catch up
Obama leads in states won - Hillary can't catch up
Obama leads in the popular vote by 700,000

Does anybody believe Hillary can overtake Obama in the popular vote IN A MEANINGFUL WAY?

Even if Hillary stages a huge comeback to win the popular vote by say 100,000 votes, it will be seen as a dead heat. Not enough to overturn the other two measures.

Hillary need to win by 500,000 votes to claim a meaningful victory in the popular vote. That, just isn't going to happen

John Irvine Ca (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:24 PM)

Obama can turn the McCain numbers around w/ campaigning. Right now NO ONE is pointing out McCains flaws w/ any regularity. THAT will CHANGE after Obama is the Nominee.

Samantha Power was RIGHT! (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:26 PM)

So the last few PA polls show Hillary leading by LESS than 10%

Ed Rendell is supposed to have a good organization
That could give Hillary a BIG advantage

But, you would expect an 'electibale candidate' to win by at least 10 points
Otherwise, she has NO MOMENTUM !!

MSierra, SF (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:28 PM)

Notice no mention of how many people were polled, or where they were from or exactly what question was asked. I rest my case.

RC-Ocala, FL (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:29 PM)

I don't know which is sadder --

~ the swift boaters who actually run the character assassination campaigns for the betterment of the rich (and the poor get poorer)

~ or the idiots who believe that the swift boaters have their best interests at heart (not!)

~ or the idiots who think that voting against 'gay marriage' and against 'abortion rights' will put food on the table -- once again (not!).

The dumbing down of America is stunning.

Vote with your head, vote for the economy, vote for jobs.

Vote Democratic 2008 -- don't let the corporations and their Republican stooges win again.

Carol, Long Valley NJ (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:29 PM)

Media spinning the public with BS polls again.

RC-Ocala, FL (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:30 PM)

Hillary Clinton is the only hope for this country.

Too many people are afraid of Obama with his racist American hating church, his American hating wife.

Obama believes in the Black Liberation Theology.

This is very scary people. Know what you are voting for.

John Doe (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:30 PM)

I hope that the smart people of Pennsylvania contine to change for Obama. I have read so many histories on the Clinton's that it would be scary to me to see them in the White House. I believe with all my hearth that Americans would be so lucky to have Obama for president. Never since the Kennedy's and Rooselvelt's and yes even Harry Truman, have I been so inspired. Obama,yes you can!

karen bourland overland park ks (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:30 PM)

'Train Wreck'

After reading the 'mostly 35,000 empty seat', article, I posted a comment in defense, and support of my candidate.

You would be more successful in your advocation for Senator McCain, to abandon your 'media bias against him', platform, and put forth his qualification to be our next President. That's the best any of us can do, here within this blog in order to help our candiate.

By the way, I don't believe I am a moron. I happen to be, your sister American, sharing my opinion.

Pulling for Obama '08

donna, pgh., pa. (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:30 PM)

Does THIS COUNT as a part of her ...................
'35 years of experience' ?

From DailyKOS:

'...Hillary Fired? (Update)
by Libesatva

Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 09:32:32 AM PDT

'...The now-retired general counsel and chief of staff of the House Judiciary Committee, (Jerry Zeifman) who supervised Hillary when she worked on the Watergate investigation, says Hillary’s history of lies and unethical behavior goes back farther – and goes much deeper – than anyone realizes.

Libesatva's diary :: ::
The story goes on to explain the situation in which
Hillary was working for Zeifman and included some
pretty damning quotes about her candor.

...a lifelong Democrat, supervised the work of
27-year-old Hillary Rodham on the committee. Hillary
got a job working on the investigation at the behest
of her former law professor, Burke Marshall, who was
also Sen. Ted Kennedy’s chief counsel in the
Chappaquiddick affair. When the investigation was
over, Zeifman fired Hillary from the committee staff
and refused to give her a letter of recommendation –
one of only three people who earned that dubious
distinction in Zeifman’s 17-year career.

"Because she was a liar," Zeifman said in an interview last week. "She was an unethical, dishonest lawyer.
She conspired to violate the Constitution, the rules
of the House, the rules of the committee and the rules of confidentiality."
To sum up, for those who do not want to read the
entire article, Hillary concealed a public file which
set precedent for the seeking of council while under
congressional investigation. Then proceeded to write
a brief for the court which stated the precedent,
which she was concealing, did not exist. The brief
was never submitted to the court, which is likely
lucky for Clinton as willfully attempting to deceive
the courts in such a way would likely have resulted in her disbarment. She is lucky that Zeifman only fired her...'

MSierra, SF (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:30 PM)

Hillary, you go girl. I hope you win in PA by 80 to 20. Undecideds watch www.audacityofhypocrisy.com.
This may help you decide that Obama is nothing like he and MSNBC projects.

Obama not in 2008, 2012 or ever.

Derlores Rose-Kennedy In Tennessee (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:31 PM)

Remember, they said the day before Super Tuesday that Hillary was gong to loose California to Obama by 17%. Why? Because that is what they wanted.

RC-Ocala, FL (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:31 PM)

I feel that the reason Mr.Obama is still showing behind Mr.McCain in the general election is because the democractic nomination has not been decided yet. Mr. Obama may not be able to carry the state, but his numbers will improve once he secures the democratic nomination.

Michael McCurdy Tucson,Az (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:31 PM)

Derlores Rose-Kennedy In Tennessee (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:31 PM)

Remember, they said that Hillary was going to loose New Hampshire. But she didn't.

RC, Ocala, FL (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:32 PM)

She'll win PA by 15%, that alone will put her above in the popular vote. Then She'll win IN, KY, and WV. Pennsylvania Avenue here we come! I love the pundits, they are making me sick. It's as if they want to shape democracy in this country. Interesting!!!

Michael, Miami Beach, FL (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:32 PM)

I'm glad Hillary is in it to win, and win she should. My family is from NY and she has done a meticulous, dutiful, persistent job of being Senator there. I have complete confidence America will turn around under her leadership to again be the kind, forward thinking country it once was.

Eric Ekstrom (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:34 PM)

McCain leading Obama at this time in PA is not bad news to those who understand politics. Once Obama is selected as the nominee and can show the contrast between he and McCain those numbers will change in his favor. Obama don't need PA to win in the general election anyway. So Todd why don't you report the news and not the spin.

Keeping It Real! (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:34 PM)

PPP poll shows him leadind and with respect to McCain, this poll means absolutely nothing come november. PA will go DEM.

Thevaneljournal.com (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:34 PM)

These polls are always bias and never show a true representation of how people are going to vote. I think they are put in place to sway the minds of voters who might not know better. Obama in 08

TP Fairfax, VA (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:34 PM)

The RCP web page shows the poll as 45 clinton to 42 Obama. You have 49-41. WHich one is correct?

Venkat, Sterling, VA (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:35 PM)

The only reason for McCain to have ground on Obama, is due to the fact the the Dems don't have a clear front-runner. A united Democratic party will obviously show considerably more strength than what we currently have. Unless the dems have a nominee as vile as our current President, there should be no excuse for any Democrat to even consider voting Republican. As much as I can't stand Hillary, I would gladly vote for her over McCain any day, and I am a true Obama supporter. Democrats... Americans need to open their eyes to what is going on in this country. A vote for McCain equals more dead service men and women, no health care, continued job loss, and tax breaks for the wealthiest of Americans.

Paul, Riverside, CA (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:37 PM)

Doesn't matter. No need to discuss HRC any longer. If the superdelegates don't end this the People of America WILL! We are aiming all of our guns at pennsylvania. Hillary Duck! We're going to focus now on McCain!

Russell New York (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:37 PM)

Good for her, what i really wan to know is how those 4 million Democrats are going to vote.

Bronx NY (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:37 PM)

Wait til the results of Obama's fabulous appearance on "Hardball" and the West Chester College Tour. That appearance will knock Hillary down further a few points.

John S (Sent Thursday, April 03, 2008 5:38 PM)

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