First thoughts: Walking in Memphis
Posted: Friday, April 04, 2008 9:06 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Walking in Memphis: Today is the 40th anniversary of the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. in Memphis, TN, and both Clinton and McCain are in the city to commemorate the event. At noon, Clinton gives a speech at the Mason Temple: Church of God and Christ, while McCain makes remarks around the same time to the Southern Christian Leadership Conference, holds a media avail afterwards, and then lays a wreath at the National Civil Rights Museum. Obama won’t be in Memphis. Instead, his campaign says, he will talk about the anniversary during his campaign event in Fort Wayne, IN. It's odd that Obama chose not to go. No doubt it's tricky for some to decide what to politicize and what not to, but this seemed like one of those events that would cut across party lines. As it turns out, McCain will be spending more time in Memphis today than Clinton and (obviously) Obama -- so it provides him with an interesting moment in the sun. Does he get more national attention today than he received on the first four days of his “Service to America” tour? While McCain may not pick off too many black voters in the general (versus Obama), he could be laying the groundwork for wooing blacks if Clinton somehow becomes the nominee.
*** Plenty of interesting numbers: A brand-new New York Times/CBS poll has plenty of interesting findings. A whopping 81% say the country is on the wrong track; Obama leads Clinton 46%-43% (which is within the poll’s margin of error), but that’s down from the 54%-38% lead he held over her in late February, after he had gone on his winning streak; and Obama’s favorability numbers among Democrats also are down seven points (from 69% to 62%), although Clinton’s numbers are slightly lower (58%). What’s more, on the question of which presidential candidate shares your moral values, Obama ranks first (with 70%), McCain second (at 66%), and Clinton third (at 60%). With her personal numbers at a campaign low in various polls, Clinton is embarking on a new likeability tour with stops on Leno and Ellen. On Ellen, which will air on Monday, she brought up the "boys" trying to push her out and seemed to garner sympathy from the host and audience. On Leno, Clinton took the time to fix the Bosnia stuff and told a pretty funny LA sniper story.
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VIDEO: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray offers his first read on the darkening mood in the U.S. and what it means to the 2008 presidential candidates.
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It’s close in Indiana: A new
Research 2000 poll of Indiana shows Clinton with a three-point lead (49%-46%). The poll seems to be a reminder that no matter what happens in the next three states, Clinton may not win any blowouts. What if she narrowly wins Pennsylvania and Indiana, but loses North Carolina by double-digits? It's actually as likely a scenario as any. For some reason, Clinton ekes out her victories (with a few exceptions), while Obama has only won just ONE close race of note (Missouri). Most of his primary victories have been blowouts (see, well, the month of February). Do narrow wins move supers or do blowouts? Can Obama claim that a narrow loss in states Clinton targets -- combined with a blowout win for him in North Carolina -- is enough to prove that he's as electable as Clinton in the general?
*** Every delegate counts: While he won’t be in Memphis, Obama -- in addition to his event in Indiana -- heads to Grand Forks, ND, where both he (at 6:30 pm ET) and Clinton (at 8:30 pm ET) address the North Dakota Democratic Party convention. North Dakota already held its caucuses on February 5, and Obama won that contest, 61%-37%, picking up eight delegates to Clinton’s five. Per a campaign source, Clinton is going to North Dakota to 1) thank and retain the delegates she won two months ago and 2) see if they can possibly steal an uncommitted delegate or two when re-caucusing takes place on Saturday. After all, remember that in the recent county conventions in Iowa, Obama was able to grab extra delegates from his original haul (most of the gain came from Edwards’ delegates). Yet Jamie Selzler, executive director of the North Dakota Democratic Party, tells First Read that under the state party’s bylaws, delegates to the convention are strongly encouraged to reflect the vote from February 5. Of course, as we’ve learned in this campaign, anything is possible.
*** The Tax Day cometh: While today could be the day the Clinton campaign releases its post-White House tax returns, it may takes days before the media does its scrub. While many an insider may be most interested in Bill Clinton's income and various business deals, the bigger impact may simply be the amount of money the former first couple has made over the last seven years. Will those working class voters Clinton is appealing to be turned off by their wealth?
*** Just asking: Who needs the Obama-Clinton race to end more: the Dems or McCain? You can actually argue it's McCain, since he's strongest when he's running against … someone. In a general election, Clinton and Obama would be two different campaigns -- both on message and geography. So McCain has to hold off on his general election strategy until the Dems pick a nominee, whenever that is… Also, was Corzine's little popular vote comment, which some took as a potential sign he could flip from Clinton to Obama, actually a clever way of helping to push the idea that the popular vote should be a fair barometer for the superdelegates to judge the nominating contest? Had the campaigns known in January that the popular vote was going to matter so much, wouldn't that have changed campaign strategies?
*** Uh, oh: There’s nothing like having a chief strategist -- Mark Penn -- who also happens to be the CEO of a major PR company. On Monday, Penn met with Colombians about their trade pact -- a trade pact opposed by Penn's supposed No. 1 client, Hillary Clinton. This is an un-needed distraction and only allows Obama to play the Washington insider card one more time. What was Penn thinking? Or is he not as involved in the Clinton campaign and is starting to worry about his day job? Does this incident become the excuse those inside the Clinton campaign who would like to see Penn go use to push for his ouster? Considering all the hay the Clinton campaign made out of the Obama campaign's policy adviser meeting with the Canadians to cool their jets on the NAFTA rhetoric, Penn may find himself in more hot water than he realized when he made the decision to meet with Colombians on this trade pact issue.
*** The Fellowship of the ring: Last night on Nightly News, NBC’s Andrea Mitchell examined a little-known yet influential Christian group, The Fellowship, which sponsors the annual National Prayer Breakfast that many Washington politicians attend (including presidents and the two Democrats running for president this year). The Fellowship, however, also seems something out of a Dan Brown novel -- it’s secretive, it has had ties to some unsavory third-world leaders, and its leader, Doug Coe, has said things in the past that have appeared to praise Hitler (at least his organizational skills) and oddly honor Chairman Mao. Well, as Mitchell and others have reported, Hillary Clinton has participated in its smaller prayer groups and has called Coe a spiritual mentor and guide. In many ways, Clinton’s ties to The Fellowship don’t compare to Obama and Rev. Wright -- Coe isn’t her pastor, she has never given him or his group money, and has never heard the controversial things he’s said. Yet Clinton, when recently criticizing Obama over Wright, said you choose who your pastor is. But isn’t that also true of spiritual advisers?
*** On the trail: Besides today’s events in Memphis and North Dakota… Obama campaigns in Fort Wayne, IN; Bill Clinton is in North Carolina; and Chelsea Clinton stumps in West Virginia.
Countdown to Pennsylvania: 18 days
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 32 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 214 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 291 days
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