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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Delegate fight: Hillary's steep climb

Posted: Monday, April 07, 2008 9:19 AM by Mark Murray

The New York Times’ Harwood writes about the steep climb Clinton has regarding superdelegates and reports on a new Obama endorser from Montana.

DNC Chairman Howard Dean "expressed confidence that an agreement would be reached to seat the delegates." But a deal, he said on the Sunday shows, is unlikely until after the primaries are over in June. 
 
The Los Angeles Times looks at the superdelegates’ dilemma involving their own re-election. "One blunt question underscored how much lawmakers' thinking is shaped not just by high-minded reflection about who would make the best president, but by the cold-eyed political assessment: What does it mean to me? Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.), a freshman from a district that President Bush won in 2004 by 14 percentage points, asked Clinton to address concerns that in conservative districts like his she would not be ‘helpful’ at the top of the ticket, Pa. frosh Dem Rep. Jason Altmire recalled. Clinton responded by pointing to her success in GOP precincts in the New York and Arkansas primaries as evidence that the more people know her, the more support she draws -- even from Republicans.”

”Republicans often seem to be rooting for Clinton because they believe she will be a bigger liability than Obama -- both in the presidential campaign and in congressional races. That is why Altmire fears that a Clinton nomination would energize conservatives -- not just in his district, but nationwide -- who otherwise would be lukewarm about McCain's candidacy."

Former DNC chair Paul Kirk wrote an open letter in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette giving his advice to his fellow superdelegates. He urges them to do four things (all of which would benefit Obama, potentially, more than Clinton):
1): "Speak out now!": "No, I'm not suggesting we urge one candidate to step aside before the primaries run their course. But I am suggesting we urge both campaigns to cease the intra-party slurs. The problem is not the length of the calendar; it's the negative tone of the dialogue that will hurt our chances in the fall. Our candidate will be a weaker nominee in November if the bitterness continues. None of us should look back from November and ask: "Why didn't I speak out in April?" If your voice is to be heard at any time in this process, now is the time. Let's urge both campaigns to cease the slash-and-burn tactics and get back to the kitchen-table issues that worry America's families."

2) Resolve Florida and Michigan now! "In sports as in life, if you don't play by the rules you must pay a price. The same should be true of politics. One "price" being considered for Florida and Michigan, both having ignored party rules on the timing of their primaries, is to nevertheless count their votes at what could be a determinative moment late in the calendar. But every candidate knew that neither state held a valid election, so no candidate should be able to claim an advantage from it. ... The fairest solution is to divide their delegations equally between the two candidates. The campaigns can work with the state parties to assure appropriate demographic representation.

3) Stay focused. It's about the delegates! "Questions are floating as to the real measure of "winning" in the run to the nomination. Number of states? Big states? Popular vote? Electoral College? Helloooo? ...We have rules. Everyone understood them at the outset. This is not a national primary; it is not a red-vs.-blue, caucus-vs.-primary or big state-vs.-small state competition. It's a state-by-state contest (some primary, some caucus, some big, some small) by which delegates are selected in proportional representation to the popular vote in each state."

4) Close ranks before the Democratic Convention! 

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Comments

that's right Bill...
The more people that know Hillary, the more they know she is such a liar.....

Obama is a liar, a crook and a thief.
That may hurt some feelings.
But, it is nonetheless the truth, and as we all know.....
Amazing a former DNC chair needs to remind people its all about the delegates.
Obama also picked up 5 add on delegates this week while Clinton picked up 1
Well written letter, Mr. Kirk.
Intense in-fighting in her own staff, finances a mess, lies, coverups, concealments, distortions, dirty politics, entire states dismissed as "not-important", miscalculations, "misspoken" . . . this is the worst-run campaign in a long, long time.

And all a small preview of what a Clinton administration would look like.
SOME MORE NEW MATH:  this just occurred to me:  could this race end by Obama actually reaching the 2025 number via elected delegates?  For example, if 170 or so superdelegates shift to Obama tomorrow, then winning just over half of the delegates at stake in the primaries thru May 6th would put him over the top.  More realistic:  there are about 700 elected delegates left.  Surely Obama will win about half of them.  Lets say he does win 350 of them.  Then he'd only need 35 superdelegates to go over the top.  It is very likely that 35 superdelgates will endorse him in the next month, putting him in a position to win the nomination by June 6th by simply accumulating more elected delegates.  This would avoid a moment of "the super delegates deciding".  Rather, a Montana victory, or even a Puerto Rico defeat that garners 20 delgates, could put Obama over the top.  Now:  what if 50 or 75 supers endorse Obama in the coming weeks?  Then he'd need only 300 elected delegates, and he could wrap things up even sooner.... Thoughts from FIRST READ?
"In sports as in life, if you don't play by the rules you must pay a price. The same should be true of politics. One "price" being considered for Florida and Michigan, both having ignored party rules on the timing of their primaries, is to nevertheless count their votes at what could be a determinative moment late in the calendar. But every candidate knew that neither state held a valid election, so no candidate should be able to claim an advantage from it. ... The fairest solution is to divide their delegations equally between the two candidates. The campaigns can work with the state parties to assure appropriate demographic representation."
****************************************************

I couldn't have said it better.  

Also, The TRUTH Hurts commented that Obama is a "liar, a crook and a thief".  I'm curious about the proof of those charges.  No snark intended, I just question the validity of these allegations.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
Truth Hurts:
I love how you make assertions about Obama being a liar, crook and a thief but provide absolutely no evidence for your stance. So, I'll play along: Hillary Clinton and John McCain are liars, crooks and thieves. Wow, that was fun. I guess you're on to something. Making baseless attacks is almost therapeutic.
"Obama is a liar, a crook and a thief.
That may hurt some feelings.
But, it is nonetheless the truth, and as we all know....."

Do you have any facts whatsoever to support this statement? If not, you're no better than someone who spray paints profanity on public propery.
I agree with Kirk on all accounts.  Nice to see a DNC voice of reason.

Its funny how the superdelegates are supposed to be exercising their political judgment (who's good for the Party, who can win in Nov.) when really, they all have their own biases and constituencies as well.  Not a fan of the superD process although we have to live with it this year.  Wonder what the fallout will be on the process in subsequent years.

Down ballot, Obama is the clear choice.  He brings out new Dems, she brings out the Repubs to vote down Dems.  Is there anyone who really believes she is better down ballot?
SO it doesn't mater what the people of Florida and Michigan want. Why don't we just have the DNC appropriate all the delegates.

See here is the rub. There is no way to solve this that is fair to everyone.
Thanks Howard Dean. Good going DNC.
After further consideration, giving 10 million in charity, and then abandoning your campaign's service vendors with over 9 million in uncollected fees, does'nt follow. The Clintons cavalier indifference toward their long list of bad debts, from state to state, owed to small businesses tarnishes their alms. Hillary should pay her vendors before moving on with her locust-like campaign. She certainly can afford it.

Her single-minded grab for the Presidency hardly excuses her from satisfying her debts.

The Clinton's behavior in this primary, from their treatment of Gov. Bill Richardson, to that of the Vendors, is consistent with that of an addict, having gone back to the needle. Their drug of choice is power, and they will stop at nothing to get it.

Perhaps on Judgment Day, the Vendors will be credited with 10 million in charity.

Thank you Senator Obama, for paying your bills. You make us proud. We are hopeful for a better Presidency; a better government.

Pulling for Obama '08
This will probably upset most Hillary Delusionalist. It's Over,pack your bag's like Van did a couple month's ago & go home to your family's.Net gain of of 60 Super Delegates since super tuesday for Barack.

The Truth Hurt's, does'nt it!

Paul Kirk said it all beautifully! I agree 100%!!

It has become almost comical to see the various new rules the Clintonian spinners repeat on almost a daily basis. One day it's the Popular Vote - then the next day it's Big Electoral States won - then it's caucus states shouldn't count - then the cycle repeats itself! It's almost like "If it's Sunday, it's Big Electoral states won!" That's what Ed Rendell and other surrogates were pushing yesterday. It is so refreshing to see someone like Paul Kirk remind everyone that there are rules which have been in place from the beginning that say this is a contest about DELEGATES!! Bravo, Mr. Kirk!!
http://twocanpete.blogspot.com/
Sounds like the Super Delegates are Super Selfish.
Finally, We are back to talking about the delegates.  Go away Bill and Hillary.  20 yrs of you is enough for our country.  You can spend some time with the Bush family and woller in your millions.  Bush is the unifying president and Hillary is the economic president.  Give me a break.  

Obama is our only chance for "honest" leadership.  As far as the truth hurts who blogs above.  What are you smokin
Sorry Hill, the more people get to know you, the more they vote for Obama.  You've had pre-contest leads in most contests to this point.  You've haven't maintained a single lead in any contest.  The more your cast into the light, your numbers drop.  Most people don't like you or trust you, so stop the spin - it isn't as if you need to be liked as president anyway.
The FL/MI fiasco should have no bearing on this election. They broke the rules and should have to pay the price. If you bend the rules this time, you will no doubt have to bend the rules again in the future. DON'T DO IT.

http://www.politivine.com
"That is why Altmire fears that a Clinton nomination would energize conservatives -- not just in his district, but nationwide -- who otherwise would be lukewarm about McCain's candidacy."

Duh! Who HASN'T known this for the past two years!
Thank you, Mr. Kirk, for reminding everyone that both candidates knew the rules going into this race and should not be pushing to change them.
In Michigan, we are counting on the DNC to stand by their original decision not to count the delagates from this state.  That rule, as stated before the election, influenced the way everyone voted and therefore should not change.
The TRUTH hurts...IT's obvious the only lar, crook and thief are people like you, because all you do is ingored the truth and throw dirt onto honest people like Barack Obama for the seek of trying to cause harm to his name. The American people are smarter than you and see thru the BS that people like you do.  No one feelings are hurt....because no one cares about anything stupid,evil people like you have to say.  NOW, Is your feeling hurt?
Obama is a liar, a crook and a thief.
That may hurt some feelings.
But, it is nonetheless the truth, and as we all know.....
Hmmmm- What specific proof do you have to put forth that shows Senator Obama is a liar. It seems to me that you have him confused with Hillary--SHE IS THE LIAR!
If you want to support a LIAR (Clinton) then that is fine, but is it really fair to try to put forth rumors and innuendo about Senator Obama? The difference is that Clinton's deceptions and LIES come straight from her own mouth in the form oF tall tales that she fabricates and puts forth to fool people and get votes. She she write fiction novels instead of running for President. Perhaps she would make a few more millions from that.
Obama is a liar, a crook and a thief.
That may hurt some feelings.
But, it is nonetheless the truth, and as we all know.....
Hmmmm- What specific proof do you have to put forth that shows Senator Obama is a liar. It seems to me that you have him confused with Hillary--SHE IS THE LIAR!
If you want to support a LIAR (Clinton) then that is fine, but is it really fair to try to put forth rumors and innuendo about Senator Obama? The difference is that Clinton's deceptions and LIES come straight from her own mouth in the form oF tall tales that she fabricates and puts forth to fool people and get votes. She should write fiction novels instead of running for President. Perhaps she would make a few more millions from that.
Hillary's whole strategy relies on the assumption that a large % of supers will go her way, but all of the momentum has been for Obama since Super Tuesday.  She has barely added any, while he has been piling on support.  Obama will have the nomination wrapped up at some point in May, at this pace.
Please add the Add-on delegates to your count:  Missouri, 1 for BHO, 1 undecided; DW  1 for BHO, DC 1 for BHO, 1 uncomitted; ND 1 for BHO; plus the fact that a UT DNC member was changed (Larson) from HRC to uncomitted, and HRC lost one in LA when DNC member Mary Lou Winters (HRC) was replaced by Elsie Burkhalter, still uncomitted
Should be mandatory reading for all delegates and superdelegates. The Clintons keep moving the goalposts which is not surprising, which is to do or say anything to win, and that truth  has no  value to them. Above all, Hillary lacks judgment, and that has been shown time and time again. Some examples have been her handling of healthcare in the White House, her administrative dealings such as Travelgate, her not being forthcoming about her billing records and information about Whitewater, her blaming a conspiracy when her husband had a history of infidelity , her NOT READING THE NIE prior to voting on Iraq. She has run a lousy campaign, and has not been responsible financially and has surrounded herself by thuggish surrogates. She is more like Dona Corleone that Paulette Revere. Whatever experience she may or not have, she has not shown the ability or judgement to be President and leader of the free world.
The Clinton's tactics during this campaign have been reprehensible, out of the Bush/Rove handbook . They showed their true colors during South Carolina and although Hillary can change personalities on a dime, that showed the true measure of the person . Her ability to change personalities so easily and the ease with which she lies makes her truly frighteining.
GO HILLARY !!!!
COUNT THE VOTES!!!  When the Votes for FL & MI are counted - Hillary will win the popular vote - this is a fact the obama group does not want to hear - That is why he is trying to block this!  So much for the good candidate of Change - new politics!  Obama will never be elected due to his radical friends - his background & judgment are far too questionable.
His "supporters" telling Hillary to get out "for the good of the party" - has backfired - now people are really pulling for her! PA will tell!
Regarding FL and MI - thanks to Paul Kirk for putting a bit of reality back into the picture!

Tim Russert showed again yesterday on MTP the quotation from Hillary last October where she said that of course the MI results would not count for anything. Her campaign agreed also to the same thing for FL. But that was THEN - BEFORE she lost Iowa!  

The ONLY FAIR outcome is to UPHOLD the AGREED-UPON RULES from last year and NOT COUNT THESE BOGUS RETURNS! But - the delegations can participate in the fun at Denver by having them split 50/50. No harm, no foul.
Obama said he never heard the pastor's speeches, oh then he did! Liar!, Obama had an arms length relationship with the crook on trail, oh then he remember that they toured his house he was planning on buying together, then the crook's wife bought the land next to him and sold him a piece of it.  Liar and Crook.  Etc. Etc. Etc.... THERE IS YOUR PROOF.

If conservatives come out against hillary then I expect conservative racist (which there are many) will come out against obama.  

Obama means President McCain.

Count Florida Votes Now or else!
The smartest thing I have read in a long time.
Regardless of who it benefits, rule are rules, agreed on by the candidates before running.
Thanks for reminding us
Again, it's all about Hillary Clinton not about her party. Even as an independent, I can see how the concerns of down-ticket Dems are real and significant - it's the first time in a LONG time that downticket Dems in Red States and others have a chance at winning nationwide given the poor state of our nation today after 7+ years of Bush rule. After a bloody fight for the nomination, Hillary on the ticket practically guarantees their defeat and might even further Dems losses of "secure" seats.
What you're seeing is not a "fighter" but the arrogance and stubbornness of one putting their own interests before the greater good of others. And it should be no surprise that she will continue this behavior after she gets in the White House. She has had every conceivable advantage entering this contest which is why she was proclaimed "inevitable" last year. Yet due to her incompetence, inexperience and duplicity with the American people she's behind in the delegate count today.
Anything to help Obama. It is beyond sane now. Media and lemmings of Obama and all they can pay, bully and coherse in between.Everyone is afraid of offending little bommy well guess what!women and whites carry a large block too. See how your golden boy does without them.You will all look foolish when Hillary wins anyway cause no count people have her back .
The sad truth is that most of our elected officals spend more time insuring they keep their soft jobs with excellent health insurance and big pensions; all paid by worker's who are losing their pensions,health insurance and jobs, than they do working for the people who put them in office.
I do not believe that 'women and whites' will elect a President they KNOW is corrupt just because the better candidate is half black. That remark from Hillary-all the way is all wrong, I know this because I am a white woman supporter of Senator Obama.
Hey Dennis Smith,

Wrong!

He said he was not in the church when the two 30 second clips that were being shown were happening. He said he was in the congregation during sermons he did not agree with.

They (the Obama's and Rezkos) were not going to purchase the house together.  Also, the piece of property he eventually bought from them was through a bidding process that he won.

Florida counts or else what? They broke the rules, they should live with the punishment.

Oh yeah, whoever said that Obama doesn't want to count MI and FL because it would take away his lead in votes doesn't have a clue.  Obama maintains his lead in ALL catagories EVEN IF MI AND FL ARE COUNTED!

People, get you facts straight before posting.

Has anyone noticed that the Clinton's have backed off a little?  And also, who is getting a free ride from the press?  Compare the coverage of Wright to the coverage of Penn, the coverage of the Bosnia lie, the coverage of Peter Paul, etc., etc., etc.  If anyone is getting a free ride, it's Hillary.
Mr. Kirk has written a fine letter.  I hope that all of the people registered to vote in the remaining states go and vote.  This is somethig that should be done by all.  The superdelegates should watch the number of delegates.  It is the elected delegates that should make the most difference.  


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