First thoughts: Petraeus-Crocker, Rd. 2
Posted: Tuesday, April 08, 2008 9:11 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Petraeus-Crocker, Round 2: After their testimony last September, Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker return to Capitol Hill today to brief Congress on the war in Iraq. And they’re not the only ones returning: Clinton, McCain, and Obama -- who have been strangers to the Hill over the past several months -- also will be on hand for the testimony. As we mentioned yesterday, Clinton might have the most to gain, given her need for some type of game-changing moment in the Democratic race. But there is no doubt that all three will be in the spotlight, maybe more so than Petraeus and Crocker. However, as NBC’s Ken Strickland points out both Clinton and Obama -- due to their lack of seniority -- won’t be speaking until about two or three hours into each hearing. The testimony kicks off at 9:30 am ET at the Senate Armed Service Committee, on which both Clinton and McCain serve. And it continues at 2:30 pm ET at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, of which Obama is a member. The testimony moves to the House on Wednesday.
*** Should it be all about Crocker? Before the first Petraeus-Crocker hearings, Petraeus garnered most of the fanfare and attention. (Remember that “Betray-us” ad?) But shouldn’t the spotlight -- at least from critics -- really be on Crocker when the two testify again today? After all, with the violence down in Iraq, isn’t the political situation there the easier target? It looks like Joe Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, will be taking that approach. Per a Biden spokesman, the senator (and former presidential candidate) “will focus his questioning on the stated purpose of the surge, to bring violence down so Iraqi leaders could come together politically. Violence has come down, for now, but the Iraqis have not come together. The surge was a means to an end -- political reconciliation -- that we seem no closer to. He’ll ask generally: What’s the timetable and what are the prospects for getting there in the months ahead?” Expect to see the other Democrats, including Clinton and Obama, follow this line of questioning. But the fact that Petraeus is being portrayed as the star by the media means the Republicans may have already won the early spin war on this day.
*** Here we go again: A new Quinnipiac University poll has Clinton leading Obama by just six points in Pennsylvania, 50%-44%, down from the nine-point lead she held last week in the same poll, 50%-41%. Exactly two weeks until the primary there, it seems a lot like we saw in the lead up to Ohio: Obama is gaining ground on Clinton almost every day (while racking a superdelegate per day, too). And not only are polls closing, but Obama's financial advantage on the ground is growing, with SEIU dumping nearly a million dollars. Deja Ohio? Yet as we’ve asked before: Will the result be different this time? Will Obama keep the race as close as some of the polls are beginning to suggest? The answer could very influence whether the Dem race lasts through June (and beyond) or if thing might be over in May. Also, who says pollsters never call them? Ed Rendell, it turns out, was polled by Quinnipiac. The governor said he was at home last weekend when the Quinnipiac pollster called him. One of the questions was whether Rendell's endorsement impacted his vote. "I said 'absolutely.'"
*** Staying alive, staying alive? Is Mark Penn sticking around or is he spinning the press on his role? The Washington Post: "Despite the announcement Sunday that he is giving up his strategist role, it remains to be seen how removed he will be. Penn was on a top-level conference call yesterday, one insider said; he is helping Clinton (N.Y.) prepare for the next Democratic debate, on April 16; and his firm, Penn Schoen & Berland Associates, will continue to conduct some polling for the campaign." Does the Clinton campaign really contain the damage by allowing Penn to stick around? Remember, however, that there was plenty of speculation that Patti Solis Doyle was sticking around, too. But after about two weeks, it was clear she wasn't. Let's check back in two weeks and see what Penn's role really is."
*** Presumed guilty: So how did Clinton get presumed guilty in telling this story involving a woman in Ohio and her health-care coverage? As it turns out, per the Washington Post, the story is mostly accurate -- the woman didn’t get care at another hospital. That's the story of the Clinton campaign, actually: She is presumed guilty on a number of issues until the campaign can prove her innocent. This is the baggage she carries from her husband's administration. It's as much about the distrust Bill Clinton earned with the media -- and public -- over eight years as it is with her. As much as his presidency and record has been an asset for Clinton, it also has been a liability.
*** 527s galore: The race is on to be THE Republican 527 this cycle… Yesterday, the Boston Globe reported on the creation of a new GOP group “led by operatives who ran the 2004 Republican group Progress for America and … funded at least partly by ‘alumni’ of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.” There’s also the American Future Fund (which began running ads to benefit vulnerable Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman) and Freedom’s Watch (which played in an earlier special congressional election in Massachusetts). Do these groups help make up the GOP’s finanacial disadvantages heading into November? Or do so many different groups -- perhaps a la the Dems in 2004 -- end up cluttering the message? It appears these 527s will be attempting to stake out specific turf, with Freedom's Watch being the House 527 and the others competing to be the Senate one. What's unclear is which one will be the presidential 527, if there is even one at all.
*** The delegate count: Obama is within 30 superdelegates of Clinton (255-225), as he added one more superdelegate to his total yesterday. Montana National committeewoman Jeanne Lemire Dahlman told the AP (and the campaign confirmed to First Read) that she is throwing her support to the Illinois senator. However, another Montana superdelegate, Margaret Campbell, who had been reported to back Obama, withdrew her support yesterday, citing party rules calling for neutrality. In the overall count, Obama leads by 134 (1,641 to 1,507). He has a 164 pledged-delegate lead (1,416 to 1,252).
*** American Dreamz? NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan reports that Obama is going to be delivering a video message on American Idol’s “giving” episode this week. John McCain also will be delivering a message, and we think Clinton will as well.
*** On the trail: In addition to the Petraeus-Crocker hearings on Capitol Hill, Clinton already has addressed the Communication Workers of America and then she joins former NFL QB Jim Kelly and Sen. Chris Dodd to call for passage and funding of the Newborn Screening Saves Lives Act; McCain attends a Vets for Freedom Rally in DC and later hits a fundraiser in DC; and Obama, like Clinton, has already spoken to the Communication Workers of America. Also, Chelsea Clinton campaigns in Indiana, while Michelle Obama stumps in North Carolina.
Countdown to Pennsylvania: 14 days
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 28 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 210 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 287 days
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