First thoughts: Obama to opt out?
Posted: Wednesday, April 09, 2008 9:24 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Is Obama going to opt out? Is Obama setting up the rationale to NOT take public financing in the general election? Here he is at a fundraiser last night, per NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan: "We have created a parallel public financing system where the American people decide if they want to support a campaign they can get on the Internet and finance it, and they will have as much access and influence over the course and direction of our campaign that has traditionally reserved for the wealthy and the powerful.” While forgoing public financing would be a PR embarrassment for the campaign -- an increasingly aggressive McCain/RNC press shop will make sure of it -- are the Obama folks realizing that they will HAVE to do this? After all, the DNC isn’t going to have that much money to spend (at least compared with the RNC), and Democratic donors who would ordinarily finance independent 527s probably believe that Obama -- if he’s the nominee -- will have plenty of money. As Politico's Ben Smith reported earlier this week, there are fundraising issues already for some of these indie groups. What will Obama do? Looks like we may already know the answer.
*** A Clinton house divided: So Bill Clinton, it turns out, supports the Colombian free trade agreement that his wife opposes. In fact, according to our count, this is at least the fourth policy disagreement Bill and Hillary have had -- Colombia, NAFTA, whether to boycott the opening Olympics ceremony, and torture (as we found out at the September debate at Dartmouth). "Like other married couples who disagree on issues from time to time, she disagrees with her husband,” Clinton spokesman Jay Carson told the AP, regarding Bill’s support for the Colombian deal. Those of us who are married know that Jay is right: Married couples can disagree on almost anything, including policy. But then again, not every spouse is Bill Clinton, a former president who would be his wife’s most important adviser and confidante if she wins the White House. His positions on issues -- even when they disagree -- do matter, especially when groups supporting one side give him $800,000 in speaking fees.
*** Embracing their differences: Differences with Bill, in fact, should have been a badge of honor for Hillary at some point in this campaign. Perhaps the strategy was to showcase her "Sister Souljah" moments with her husband during the general, because Dem primary voters were happy with Bill's years in the White House. Hindsight indicates that maybe she should have bragged about these policy differences a lot sooner so she could be her own candidate sooner. Eight years ago, George W. Bush had the luxury of being forced to prove his differences with his former presidential father in the primary, while hugging him in the general (as he did a bit).
*** The Keystone downpayment: Both Dem campaigns are airing a number of new TV ads in Pennsylvania (nine new ones just yesterday). Indeed, per TV ad tracker Evan Tracey, Obama is spending $300,000 a day in the state. The sheer volume is a reminder that both campaigns realize there really isn't any way to waste money on the air in this state. Why? Because it's a downpayment for the fall campaign. Democrats, obviously, are divided on whether this elongated primary season is good for their party. But in the case of being able to introduce themselves to voters in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, it has been a positive. Most of the TV ads are basically positives for both of them, meaning it would be a shock if both candidates didn't see a polling benefit in match-ups with McCain in this state over the next few weeks.
*** A North Carolina blowout? Seriously, the two Dem gubernatorial candidates in North Carolina are fighting over who supports Obama more. In fact, one candidate (Richard Moore) is using paid advertising to tout his Obama support. Maybe we should stop pretending North Carolina is going to be competitive; it's not. The problem now for Clinton is what will the delegate count and popular vote count look like after May 6 if North Carolina is a blowout for Obama -- and if Clinton wins narrowly in Pennsylvania and Indiana. Will Obama net more delegates out of North Carolina than Clinton nets out of Pennsylvania and Indiana combined (if she wins them both)? Will Obama's popular vote lead actually grow after North Carolina, because his win there is bigger than hypothetical combined Clinton victories in PA and IN? This is the dilemma for Clinton's campaign in the Tar Heel State. It may be unwinnable, but campaigning seriously in the state and attempting to close the gap is an absolute must because of the state's potential effect on delegates and total votes.
*** Politics means you always have to say you're sorry: Looking back on the presidential contest, five of most important themes/storylines have been (so far) race and gender, Iraq, the economy, the fundraising, and the role of the superdelegates. If you were to add a sixth, it might have to be the apology. As we've noted before, there have been a plethora of apologies this cycle -- from Edwards (for his 2002 war vote), Bob Johnson and Billy Shaheen (for references to Obama's teenage drug use), Samantha Power (for her "monster" comment), and the list goes on and on. Well, you can now add one more to the list: Obama supporter Jay Rockefeller, for saying that McCain’s days as a Navy pilot didn’t prepare him for an understanding of everyday issues. “McCain was a fighter pilot, who dropped laser-guided missiles from 35,000 feet. He was long gone when they hit. What happened when they get to the ground? He doesn’t know. You have to care about the lives of people. McCain never gets into those issues.” When’s the next apology…?
*** Down the ballot: Yesterday, Schumer and Van Hollen, the respective heads of the Dem Senate and House campaign committees, held an expectations-setting sort of briefing yesterday. Schumer flexed his targeting muscles a bit tossing out long-shot pickup after long-shot pickup. There’s clearly a tilted playing field for the Senate favoring the Dems. In fact, anything less than a four-seat pickup (think VA, NH, CO, and NM, where the Dems are currently favored in all four races) will be considered a bad year. (It is worth noting that Dems might not be as bullish on OR, ME, and MN as they were months ago…) NRSC Chair John Ensign can declare "victory" if he limit losses to three seats. As for the House side, Van Hollen, unlike Schumer, did his best to lower expectations -- by passing out a chart reminding reporters that the party that has a big mid-term win usually sees themselves LOSING seats the following cycle, not gaining them. Of course, with so many GOP retirements, it's hard to imagine how the Dems don't pickup a minimum of five to 10 seats. Anything less would be considered a GOP success.
*** On the trail: After their day on Capitol Hill yesterday, Clinton stumps in Pittsburgh and then heads to her Elton John fundraiser at Radio City Music Hall in New York; McCain attends a town hall in Westport, CT before raising money in Greenwich, CT; and Obama is in Pennsylvania, where he stumps in Malvern and Levittown, before heading to South Bend, IN.
Countdown to Pennsylvania: 13 days
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 27 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 209 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 286 days
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