Polling women

Posted: Thursday, April 10, 2008 9:06 AM by Domenico Montanaro

Some highlights of the new Lifetime poll mentioned above:
-- Clinton's supporters were more likely to say their economic situation had gotten worse (53%) compared to Obama's women supporters (37%) and McCain's women supporters (27%).

-- Overall, there is a three-way tie between the three remaining candidates among women, with Clinton receiving 27%, while Obama and McCain each received 25%. Overall, this netted 52% for the Democrats vs. half of that for the GOP; 17% of women said they were completely undecided.

-- Younger women were split between the two Dem candidates, while older women leaned toward McCain.

-- Black women supported Obama by a wide margin (57%) and a significant chunk of Latinas supported Clinton (43%). White women were fairly evenly split between McCain and Clinton (30-27%) with Obama trailing at 20%.

-- "There is a stark difference between the two candidates' supporters. While two-thirds of Clinton's voters favored Obama picking her as his running mate, only a quarter of Obama supporters felt this way and 50% said he should pick someone else."

-- Among women in PA, Clinton held a narrow five-point lead (34%-29%) over Obama, with McCain at 20%.

-- 45% of all women surveyed in this poll said their opinion of Obama had changed since the start of the primary season with 23% saying they now like him more and 22% saying they like him less. When asked why they had a more positive view of him now, respondents said it was tied to his personal characteristics, stance on the issues and his speeches. When asked why they had a more negative view of him now, Rev. Wright was the most common response, followed by a generic feeling that they just don't like him and then doubt about his experience.

-- Clinton was the only candidate of the three to register a significant net change of public opinion since Jan.; 26% of women surveyed revealed they now liked her less compared to just 15% who now say they liked her more. 55% said their opinion had not changed of her during this primary season. Republicans were nearly twice as likely to say their view of Clinton had worsened as Dems were to say their opinion had improved.

-- Media bias: Women are twice as likely to believe Obama has generally benefited from the media treatment in this race, and twice as likely to say McCain has been hurt by attention to his age. Clinton appears to have come out even in their eyes, split between positive and negative coverage based on her gender.

EMAIL THIS

Comments

I have often thought the woman's vote should have been more explored, mostly because while Clinton enjoys a clear advantage among women, its clear to me that Obama enjoys more support among middle-aged white women than is usually talked about.

Not all of us women like certain aspects of Hillary, while many of us desire to see a woman in the White House we just don't see Hillary as the best choice to that end.

I continue to believe that there are many good Presidential female prospects out there (in the next few years). I believe I will see a female President in my life-time (I am in my mid-forties). I don't feel I have to vote for Hillary Clinton (for reasons previously articulated) to see that happen.

BTW, on the media bias...clearly if Obama were behind in so many aspects of the race at this point of time, he would have ceased to be a factor. The media, perhaps because of the Clinton factor, has kept her alive. So anytime we talk about bias, I think of that.

Obama for America 08

Lisa, New Britain, CT CT for Hope! (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 9:17 AM)

Yup, more women who allow themselves to be deceived into voting for ineffective and plony candidates like McCain or Clinton on the basis of color and passions and not leadership qualities.
I hope those women don't help screw America further with their votes for a warmonger who knows little about foreign policy (look at his frequent gaffes in this area); and Clinton, who can only lead the nation by lies and smoke screens.
Chuck, tell the women to vote with their brains...

Jerry S. Oakland, CA (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 9:18 AM)

I'm SO sick of polls. I learned a long time ago that stats can be twisted to say whatever you want to say. I think news orgs sponsor these to have something to report on. C'mon folks.

If Obama is really trailing with women supporters, I do not see evidence of that on this board.

Because I am a white woman, does this mean I should support HRC? OMG - NO!

L - MI (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 9:22 AM)

I am one white, older, Jewish, economically worse off now than I was a few years ago woman who is an ardent Obama supporter simply because I believe he will be a great president of all the people. He spoke out from the very beginning against invading Iraq, an issue that powerfully resonates with me, and if how he has been managing his campaign is any indication of how he will manage the country, we will be in good shape economically. All the garbage out there is just that - garbage - that distracts from the issues that affect our daily lives.

Brianna (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 9:37 AM)

I'm an Obama supporter and think Hillary Clinton is way down on the list of good VP nominees. If women voters simply want a woman on the ticket, Janet Napolitano would make the ticket better than Sen. Clinton. Personally I'm a Sen. Jim Webb or Gov. Phil Bredesen fan.

bill, okla (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 9:43 AM)

So another poll, woopie!
99% of black women and black men vote for Obama, so this is nothing new.
Some vote for his black outside, some for his white insides, he can not lose. All bases are covered, WRIGHT?

HP Boston (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 9:44 AM)

I, too, am skeptical about these polls. Have you EVER been polled? I have not. I am a 58-year old white woman, middle-class working mother & grandmother who has supported Obama from Day 1. According to the polls, I SHOULD be in the Clinton camp. Clinton has all the qualities that I think put woman BACK 100 years. I would NOT want her as a role model for either my daughter or my granddaughter beginning with her choice of husbands. Having said that, I once supported both the Clintons in the past and thought Bill (despite his indiscrections) brought stability and balanced the budget, etc. during his presidency and for that he does derserve some credit. However, (and that is said with a sigh and heavy heart) the way both Hillary and Bill have conducted themselves during this campaign has made me look at them through different eyes. And I don't like what I see. Simple as that. I think she has run a very poor campaign and I believe that is partly due to the fact that she totally under-estimated the "unknown" Junior Senator from Illinois and she felt she was entitled to the White House simply because she was a Clinton. But America felt different and I believe "thinking" woman helped Obama. But you have to be open-minded and actually "listen" to Obama's message. We have many close-minded woman on these blogs that will NEVER be able to hear his message. So, don't worry, Jerry S from Oakland CA, there are PLENTY of woman who will vote with their brains! I'm one of them.

Diane from Illinois (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 9:49 AM)

I am a 58 year old white women who was for Hillary in the beginning. Then I saw she was not who I had though. I am very disappointed in her. She will bring out the worst in all of us.
PLEASE women of America pay attention! Obama is a man of great Integrity and will restore honor to our country.

jmc,Wa (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 9:49 AM)

For the BS bloggers who state- all blacks are voting for Obama because of his color-

57% of black women are voting for the black candidate

30% + 27% of white women -total 57%- are voting for the white candidates

-so wherein, exactly, lies your point?

kmnecole, st louis, mo (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 10:00 AM)

There is nothing strange about a man that knows and loves his Mother...orphaned by his Father, Barack's need for understanding was kindled at and early age...Understanding this he seeks peoples approval like know other man I believe I understand....He has turned this energy into believing the problems with America can be addressed in a manner to help all people..not the other way around as his opponent has stated time after time...
The passion runs deep in Barack Obama...Give him your vote and you will be connected to real change..

Obama '08

Bill (Hussein) Jones (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 10:02 AM)

WE ARE SO SICK OF HILLARY BASHING BROASCASTING ALL OVER TV,NEWSPAPER AND RADIO.TKS MIKE AND BETTY TEXAS

MIKE BEILING (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 10:04 AM)

The poll showing 57% of black women are voting for Obama is a farce. Its over 98%. This just shows what a joke all these poll are. Obama is a fake and is making promises he knows he can't keep.

Brother Odd (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 10:16 AM)

I am a 57 year old African American woman. I have never voted for a Republican Presidential candidate in my life. My loyalty to the Democratic campaign for Commander In Cheif has never wavered. Never. I, by the way, was not greatly impressed when Jesse Jackson made his run for President. Which should'nt matter, but for some, sadly, it may help me make my point.

Now that I have a candidate I am sincerely excited about, closer to my gene pool, NOBAMA, and others who think like her, accuse AA's of bigotry, and bias.

There is a proverb that states: "When the light helps them, they walk in it. When the stunning thunder clap of truth sounds forth, that they see as against their selfish desires, they stick their fingers in their ears."

Lest we forget, African Americans helped to built our country. We have the right to one vote, as do all of her citizenry. Some of you while fully enjoying our help, and support, for many decades, appear to long for the time before the Civil Rights Movement. In this election, it seems you regret we have the chance to cast a vote. It seems you would repeal our right to vote, in any election, should we have the audacity to disagree with your agenda, or opinion.

You accuse Reverand Wright of being unpatriotic, even though he sacrificed his youth in two tours of service as a US Marine, as well as, served in the Naval armed forces. The equation of his life, will be correctly reduced revealing the answer as to whether or not he is a patriot by God. In considering all the aspects of this man, this is best left to God. Only He can justly judge Rev. Wright.

I do not condone anyone pronouncing curses on my Country. I do not agree with calling for America to be damned. However, NOBAMA, and those who think like you, your rantings, in my opinion, constitute the same thing. Should your obvious effort to silence the AA voice, succeed after we have won our freedom of speech by The Grace Of God, our nation would most assuredly find herself damned. Thank The Lord, you, and your kind are the minority.

The good people of America have risen up to defeat hate this electon. The time of the haters is gone.

Pulling for Obama '08

donna, pgh., pa. (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 10:21 AM)

I tend to question the polls because of their small sample size (about 1000 people). We are a country of 300 million people; granted that not all are eligable to vote. The demographics change from place to place. How do 1000 people represent 300 million? This needs to be explained a little more. I also wonder how the questions were asked. The phrasing can influence a response.

S.B. Stein E.B. NJ (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 10:23 AM)

Surgical Tech (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 10:28 AM)

No polls can be trusted. Many do not even include their back up. Which, to be even somewhat scientific or to be taken seriously, must have this data. The polls today, especially Gallup as well as others, cannot tell you who the called, where they called or what time they are callig. This is necessary to actually look at demographics. Additionally, these polls said Obama would win California, Texas, and "closing the gap" or may win Ohio. And now they say he is "closing the gap" or may win Pennsylvania. No Way. It will not happen. So this totally makes them unreliable, as it is the data that tells the story. And again, where is that data? I was unable to get this information from the Gallup Poll. And also, Zogby polls would show Obama 10 points ahead when other polls showed tighter races. Yet, Real Clear Politics would include this in their averages when they should have been tossed. It was too far off of the other polls. But it made it appear, in the end average result that Obama was ahead when he was not. And of course, the owner of Zogby Polls, John Zogby supports Obama. And now women are being polled? Again, who, where and what time are they contacting these women?
But one thing is for certain, Obama has a new commercial showing his Mother and Grandmother to attract female voters to him. Problem, He used his Grandmother in Kansas to get votes, yet they basically never lived there, then he uses his Grandmother to get votes in Hawaii where he spent most of his teen years, then he threw his Grandmother to the wolves to show support for Wright, and now he uses her again to get votes in Pennsylvania. This guy is a hypocrite. His own Grandmother? So these polls must, again, be wrong. If women such as his wife with her attitude toward this country ,as well as women that think his treatment of his Grandmother, the women who raised him, can be tossed aside as needed is acceptable are supporting Obama, then this country is in big trouble.

PMC Texas (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 10:32 AM)

I am a 40 year old woman and I am a Clinton supporter. Of course, I am a scientist so I tend to apply logic, rather than faith, when voting. Oh yeah, and I am mixed race (African and Japanese)for those of you borish enough to need to know. Race and gender played no role in my decision, I based it on experience, details on the issues and voting record. I am tired of people assuming that the only reason I am backing Clinton is because I am a woman.

And to Jerry S. from CA, I AM voting with my brain which is why I voted for Clinton. Now, next time you post why don't you try using your brain.

Jasmine K., Highland Park, NJ (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 10:36 AM)

Thanks Brianna,

I am a younger, black, former military, economically better off (now that I have finished law school) woman who supports Obama. I support him because he spoke out against a "dumb" war. I support him because he has class and integrity. I am in awe of how he has run his campaign. Last, but not least, I am ready for a new chapter in America.

Dominique, Arlington, VA (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 10:49 AM)

HP Boston... Barack Obama will be the next president. Read Bill (Hussein) Jones' comment above..absolutely right! Quite unlike your comment.

bill, okla (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 10:52 AM)

Being excited about a candidate because they are closer to your gene pool, is not the best reason to vote for someone.

Brother Odd (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 11:05 AM)

You accuse Reverand Wright of being unpatriotic, even though he sacrificed his youth in two tours of service as a US Marine, as well as, served in the Naval armed forces. The equation of his life, will be correctly reduced revealing the answer as to whether or not he is a patriot by God. In considering all the aspects of this man, this is best left to God. Only He can justly judge Rev. Wright.
---------------------------------------

Oh your dear GOD please!
I am puking on the keyboard!

HP Boston (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 11:24 AM)

HP Boston:

You are a pathetic racist. I would like you to spend 1 day with me in my job (I work in surgery)so I could PROVE to you that once you make the skin incision, WE ARE ALL THE SAME. You need to crawl back under the rock that you came from and leave decent people alone.
Surgical Tech (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 10:28 AM)

---------------------------------------

Oh you CUT me to the quick! I find it amusing being called a racist. I forgive you all as you have no IDEA what COLOR I am, do you. Well?
Fools!

HP Boston (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 11:42 AM)

HP Boston (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 11:43 AM)

I am a white woman over 50 who has not wavered in her support of Hillary Clinton. Why? Because I truly believe that out of the two Democratic contenders, she will make the best president and have the most impact on our country.

This is not because she is a woman and it's not because Obama is a man or black. It has everything to do with MANY YEARS of experience working in politics, exposure to many different cultures and experiences during her white house years and the fact that Hillary is a fighter and will fight for us!

I am not voting for Obama because he is a rookie and HIS campaign is smoke and mirrors - not Clintons! The Clintons dirty laundry, missteps and gaffes have been aired over and over and over again - ad nauseum! Obama is loved by the media and I believe his whole campaign is built on a promise that HE CAN'T DELIVER. NOTHING is going to change in Washington other than the normal changes that come with a change in parties and perspectives. Anyone who things differently is deluded!!!

I live and work in this city (Washington DC)and I have the experience and the history to know that a campaign promise built on CHANGE is a marketing strategy that is duping many people into believeing that miracles will happen.

The true change will come in a change in parties and with a tried and true candidate. Bosnia is so irrelevant to this election that I can't believe people keep bringing it up. So she exaggerated her story - so what! Obama has plenty of lies and exaggerations too - why doesn't anyone examine those a little closer if honesty is such an important issue... All politicians lie and exaggerate to win your vote - if you think differently than it's time to wake up.

I'm more concerned about all these young people who haven't been around long enough to realize how dirty politics really is and will be sorely disillusioned if Obama is our candidate.

Go all the way to Denver Hillary! We love you!

Jan (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 11:50 AM)

I don't know where the polls are conducted. I am a white woman of Hillary's age and I voted for Senator Obama as did most of my friends.

shirley, san jose, ca (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 11:51 AM)

What do latinos and hispanics see in Hillary Clinton?
She actually voted AGAINST Puerto Rico Commonwealth
status. Doesn't sound like una amiga to me. ???

Leslie Philadelphia PA (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 12:02 PM)

-----------------------------------------------
Women of ALL colors should pay close attention to the real John McCain. He's not just known for having a short fuse--but also of being an ABSOLUTE PIG towards his wife (even when in front of staffers). ...I'm not talking about sins of his youth here either. Until recently, I held John McCain in high respect--even considered voting for him if my Dem candidate doesn't get the nomination. But the stories (and they're very credible) that are now emerging are really disturbing.

Watch. Listen. You'll soon see things emerging about John that will DEFINITELY effect the female vote across the color spectrum.
-------------------------------------------------

Jmp, Northern MN (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 12:19 PM)

In defense of HP Boston:

Why is it when someone says that blacks are voting for Obama because he is black they call him/her a racist?

When you look at the statistics, what else are you supposed to think. Obama is leading 90% to 10% in the black vote. NO OTHER demographic is that biased. Not even the woman's vote is that biased towards Hillary Clinton because she is a woman.

Think about it......and don't call me a racist because I'm the farthest thing from one.

I'm concerned that a lot of blacks are NOT taking a close enough look at Obama and are ONLY voting for him because he is black. I wonder how they are going to feel about him when his Health Plan doesn't cover them......

Jan (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 12:45 PM)

As to the running mate portion of the article...I hope Hillary does not go on the Dem ticket as a V.P. Obama is so surly and arrogant he will probably not ask her anyway and I would hope she would turn it down if he did. She could do a lot more good for the American people by working hard in the Senate for real reform. Obama is so wishy washy, we will need some strength to push through legislation. The man never breaks a sweat. That's not a virtue.

ann, huntington (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 2:30 PM)

Brother Odd (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 2:48 PM)

I am an African American women in my mid forties. Originally, I thought about backing Senator Clinton, however, of course, I had to do my homework regarding both candidates. I read both of their books, look at their voting records, went to their rallies and watched their campaigns evolve. As a women, I began to abhor all that Senator Clinton represented and embraced Senator Obama's overall political stance. My main reason was her failed policies (promoted NAFTA, healthcare plan that albeit allegedly inclusive, will be difficult to meet, like her last unsuccessful one), failure to really do her job (didn't even read the NIA report before voting for the war and potentially willing to enter in to another one) and lies (Bosnia like the war is a deal breaker). Senator is who he is, intellegent, fair and an individual with the courage of his conviction who has a plan for ALL of us). Unlike Senator Obama, he respects the human race, despite it's flaws, including his wife, daughters, sister and grandmother. With his integrity and the courage of his convictions (no need to take the fall for Wright his grandmother or anyone else), he will win this race.

Sheila, Texas (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 2:58 PM)

SEND A COMMENT

PLEASE READ: All comments must be approved before appearing in the thread; time and space constraints prevent all comments from appearing. We will only approve comments that are directly related to the blog, use appropriate language and are not attacking the comments of others.

Message (please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):

Your name, city and state (John Doe, Seattle, Wash.):

Your e-mail address (jdoe@msnbc.com):

Your website (it's okay if you don't have one):

Remember me? (We'll keep it private) Remember me?

TRACKBACKS

Trackbacks are links to weblogs that reference this post. Like comments, trackbacks do not appear until approved by us. The trackback URL for this post is: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/trackback.aspx?PostID=873979