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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Poll: McCain makes up ground

Posted: Thursday, April 10, 2008 2:53 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
McCain has made up ground on both Democratic candidates, according to a new AP-Ipsos poll out today. Obama saw a big drop, as he had been leading McCain by 10 points in February but now is tied, 45%-45%. Clinton leads McCain 48%-45% -- within the 3.1% margin of error. Clinton had led McCain, 48%-43% a month ago.

In the Democratic primary contest, Obama's retains his 3-point lead over Clinton, which is unchanged at 46%-43%. But there was a lot of movement underneath the topline numbers.

"[T]he heated primary is creating divisions among the electorate -- many Clinton and Obama supporters say they would rather vote for McCain if their chosen Democrat doesn't win the nomination," the AP writes. "About a quarter of Obama supporters say they'll vote for McCain if Clinton is the Democratic nominee. About a third of Clinton supporters say they would vote for McCain if it's Obama.

"Against McCain, Obama lost ground among women -- from 57 percent in February to 47 percent in April. Obama dropped 12 points among women under 45, 14 points among suburban women and 15 points among married women. He also lost nine points or more among voters under 35, high-income households, whites, Catholics, independents, Southerners, people living in the Northeast and those with a high school education or less."

But against Clinton, Obama actually gained a net of 13 points among women while Clinton gained a net of 17 among men. And while Clinton still leads among Democrats making less than $50,000 a year, that gap has closed from 17 points to seven. Also, Obama has flipped "moderate" Democrats in his favor. A month ago, Clinton led among that group 45%-40%; Obama now leads 51%-35%.

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Please fellow democrats...unite behind whoever our nominee is.
Don't worry Clinton supporters out girl WILL win the nomination. People are starting so see the real Obama.

Clinton 08
These polls are not a surprise. The country is looking for a real leader with real experience. That doesn't include Hillary or Obama. What in the world were the Democrats thinking when they voted for these two yahoos.
Auntie Em, I'm frightened, I'm frightened Auntie Em!
Another reason why this primery battle is HURTING the Democratic Party.  

SUPER NEED TO SPEAK UP OR FOREVER HOLD THEIR SILENCE.

Why are the Supers (the ones MOST familier with the two candidates) Still UNDECIDED?!
Another reason why this primery battle is HURTING the Democratic Party.  

SUPER NEED TO SPEAK UP OR FOREVER HOLD THEIR SILENCE.

Why are the Supers (the ones MOST familier with the two candidates) Still UNDECIDED?!
Clinton would be a better opponent against McCain.  Obama has the money , but with it comes baggage.  If Obama is the nominee, all his money will not make him President, and then what else does he really have.  The Republicans are all ready for him , the 527 group have their ads ready.  Obama has been basically treated will kid gloves for not , the worst is yet to come.  Hillary has had the kitchen sink thrown at he and she still survived.  She better and fairer at fighting then Obama, he is underhand in his distortions.
To: Sterling E., Manchester NH

Yahoos??? Wow, if you think Obama, and even Clinton are Yahoo's compared to McCain then this country is in deep do-do if there are more people with your philosophy.  McCain is loosing his mind the older he gets, and is a small fry short of a Happy Meal.  I pray to God, McCain does NOT win.  For our countries sake, and that of our Military.
Don't worry Obama supporters our candidate is the nominee.  People have long ago saw Clinton for who she really is.

Obama 08
The longer the Dem. primary nomination goes on, the more likely McCain will win.

Too bad the Democrats don't get this.
This is working out just as Hillary is planning. If she can't win the Democratic nomination, then she wants to make sure that her buddy McCain wins. We still have to witness the throwing of the bathroom sink. The kitchen sink approach didn't work too well.

Hillary can't close the gap if she backs off from her gutter level campaign. She has to have her surrogates continue the race baiting and keep Wright's name out front. Anything to keep the focus away from the Clintons investments with Ron Burkle.  

I wonder how the Clinton campaign team support of the Colombian FTA will play out? You notice that Hillary is the only one opposed and she is the only one that didn't get directly paid by the lobbyists. She gets half of Bill's fee, but that has to upset her.
jp,michigan...
Obama has the money but with it comes baggage??  Have you looked at the baggage that clinton comes with?

clinton has been the one throwing around the kitchen sink and Obama is the one who has and is surviving it AND gaining ground. Obama can and will take on McCain every bit as well as clinton could. He will be our next president!

OBAMA '08 - Yes WE Can!
Now it's in the polls, this nomination fight is hurting the Democrats.  Obama has between a 4 and 9 point lead over Clinton in most major polls.  That's simply the facts.  He is in the lead and this thing should come to a conclusion as quickly as possible so the real fight against McCain can begin.  I will vote for either Democrat but it's starting to really damage the party.
First Read needs to get some perspective:  Gallup has Obama over Clinton by 8 (50 to 42), and Obama leads McCain 46 to 45, while McCain leads Clinton 45 to 44.  Obama has been leading MCain for the past three days, while Clinton has never lead McCain for more than a month.  Just saying, by don't read too much in the AP, especially when comparing it to a poll taken TWO MONTHS ago.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106402/Gallup-Daily-Obama-50-Clinton-42.aspx
I can't believe there are that many Americans that would really vote for McCain.  Who could they be?  Only 20 something percent agree with Bush, so why would ANY of the others vote for someone who has agreed with Bush on just about everything?  If you are so concerned about national security, just how secure do you think this country is going to be when we go broke trying to pay for this war, or even worse, being owned by the Chinese?  I think they need to take another poll.  Who's answering these polls anyway?  Everyone I talk to has never heard of anyone even being polled.  As far as jp, michigan, do you mean to tell me that you don't believe Clinton or McCain have any baggage????  And I guess you don't think the Republicans with their 527 groups aren't all ready for Hillary either? How you can say Obama has been underhand in his distortions I don't know and that Hillary has been better and fairer at fighting than Obama?  You should really back these statements with facts.
C'mon First Read ... All of you are Intelligent people.
As long as there is a big fight between Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama ... which is a bitter fight ... there will be false readings due to people trying to influence the polls in order to boost their candidate.

In short ... these polls can't be trusted as long as there is a democratic party contest.

You know this !

So, as soon as the primaries are over .. and Barack has beaten the Clintons .. then take the poll.

All of the Hillary supporters who still won't vote for Obama will then go for McCain .. but I can guarantee yu that Obama will still beat him.

But polls before this which involve 3 candidates instead of two are misleading.
Hillary Clinton's plan to mortally wound Obama now and then run again in 2012 appears to be coming together nicely.  That the rest of America might have to put up with John McBush for 4 years is...well...our problem.
McCain has had a clear field do to his thing, while the dems act like crabs in a barrel. Wright, Michigan, Florida, and the kitchen sink have served Hillary's grab for polling numbers, for the time being. Obama will counter, I have no doubt.

Lynn, from Oakland,

Thank you for your insight. People always remark on how smart the Clintons are, especially Bill. His push for NAFTA during his Presidency, opened all the doors through which he now profits. It would seem to have been his plan all along. He positioned himself to become wealthy, through his NAFTA legislation before he left the Whitehouse. His betrayal of  American workers was planned, and premeditated. He's like the villian in a James Bond movie.

Pulling for Obama '08
I would love to have a Democrat in the white house.  The problem is I see Hillary as another Bush.  She is defensive and only has her own self interest at heart.
She has problems with the truth.  I am not being spiteful when I say I will vote for McCain if Hillary steals the election.  I think McCain like Obama is a man of Honor and Integrity and that is what this country needs.
Gravel is looking better and better every day...hope he gets the Libertarian nomination so I can vote for him!
Jp in Michigan,
What baggage?  1.3 million Americans having dipped into their wallet?  What baggage are you talking about?

As far as Hillary being vetted, that's yet another Clinton fairy tale.   They were saying that in January.  What have we found out since then?  That most of her resume is built on nothing more than...words.
Who cares about these silly polls. all that matters is what happens on election day. If obama is the nominee he will inevitably woo back a certain amount of HRC supporters. Not to mention McCain will likey implode under the pressure and repubs and dems alike who do not like the choices will not vote at all. Meanwhile all of the grass roots support that Obama has will kick in and kick @$$!!!
Obama in 08!!!
STOP PAYING ATTENTION TO NATIONAL POLL NUMBERS!!! I am so sick and tired of hearing about "national polls" and "polls of national polls." Give us something we can work with: electoral math. The electoral map that Russert explained last week was a step in the right direction. Didn't we learn anything in 2000? Popular vote doesn't matter in a presidential election. How stupid are you people??
AP's polls have never been ranked in the top 10 as most reliable.  They are always inconsistent with other polls and always wrong.  Check the last two election cycles and measure their accuracy.  
First of all, I'm an Obama supporter.

That said, I'm sick of all this "open your eyes" type of talk on these boards.  First the people making these claims (whether for Obama, or for Clinton) always say their subject is the "Truth".  Most often it would take a 5th grader two minutes to refute their version (or delusion) of the truth.  Second, the fervent supporters of either feel their eyes are open while the people that disagree with them are not.  This is statistically impossible.

I support Obama for his positions (which how you are supposed to pick a candidate people), and because I feel he displays more characteristics that I look for in a leader.  These characteristics include managment skills, clarity of vision, and ability to engage people.  Inspiration is another quality that a leader needs. I don't mind a candidate who has some rough edges, but I do mind a candidate who can't show that they have learned and grown as a result of the rough edges.  If you are a Clinton supporter, at this point I hope you can point out why you feel She is the better candidate.

Let's end this talk of she/he "lied" or did something to his 5th grade friend 20 years ago.  The choice for the nominee will be clear soon, no need to scream at the other side.
Don't worry Obama supporters our candidate is the nominee.  People have long ago saw Clinton for who she really is.

Obama 08

MK, Los Angeles, CA (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 3:08 PM)
______________________________________________

You are correct people know who Hillary is and we will continue supporting her. Hillary is not perfect and she knows it.

Unlike obama he want everyone to think he is perfect and he never makes mistakes. For some reason that sounds familiar.

Clinton 08
The numbers prove what I've expected for a while. That many women are being spiteful that a woman isn't coronated and would rather throw the party under the bus, instead of supporting the candidate that will support 95% of the SAME policies that Clinton wants.

Universal Health Care?  Not under McCain
Better economy?  Not under McCain
End the war?  Not under McCain
End Free(-for-all)Trade deals?  Not under McCain
FMLA?  Destroyed under McCain
Mortgage crisis fix?  Not under McCain

If you believe in what Hillary wants, all the things above, just think about their chances of happening under a McCain administration.... near zero.   With Obama as president, and Clinton in the Senate (where she really shines and is stronges, possibly as majority leader some day) nearly all of those plans of her's would pass.

Hey, but feel free to be petty and go against your own candidates wishes for this country and vote for McCain and destroy any chances of Hillary passing any of those items she wants to pass.

Same goes for the Obama supporters should Hillary some how manage to take the nomination.

John McCain will bankrupt and destroy the middle/lower class in this country with his policies.  Don't be petty and childish and toss your country under the bus because your candidate lost.
From 'The View' today:

"BEHAR: Are you going to push for a draft?

MCCAIN: No, I don't think so, Joy. I think our all-volunteer force works. I think we have the best-trained, best-equipped, bravest --

BEHAR: But if we have enough, why do they have to keep going back and back?

MCCAIN: We have to expand the military and provide more inducements for them to serve. There are a certain number joining out of patriotism, thank God. And then there are others that turn 18 or 19 or 20 or 21, and they look at their options."

I guess this is what republicans mean when they say 'No Child Left Behind' is working...
Way to go DEAN! your party is dangerously close to not only losing AGAIN.. but also splitting in two.

We have gotten to a point where the primary was looked upon as a "dream" where both canidates represented all that was right with the democratic party.

Now were looking at a situation where a democratic party win in Nov is getting more unlikely, up to 30% of the current primary electorate is going to jump ship to the republicans regardless of who wins the primary. AND both of these dream canidates will blame the other for the Nov loss (reagardless of who is the Dem nominee) there by ending both their political careers much like what happened to Mondale (remember him)

Way to show some leadership DEAN!!

The canidate of destiny.. now the canidate of another loss to the republicans, 30% of your voters are claim there jumping ship after the primary, AND ITS ONLY APRIL!  

Imagine the democratic bonfire come JULY 4..  McCain has cash, republicans have 300 million in 527's, Nader is polling in the mid Teens, and Dean has what.. a broke DNC and two canidates so damaged by the primary that the only Dem that is talked about who can win in Nov is the onyl one who has no desire to run.. GORE...   VIVA DEAN DNC CHAIR FOREVER!!!





 
It is reasonable to assume Senator McCain picking up steam. He's not involved in the food fight that the Clintons and their surrogates insist on carrying out to the bitter end. They are throwing everything they have at Senator Obama at this point - everything.

I still maintain Senator Clinton will be out of this race in the first week of May. Barack Obama will run a well-organized campaign against John McCain with the entire Democratic Party behind him.

The Republicans have very little, if any, clout anymore.

The Iraq War, John McCain's age - many things will come to the forefront this coming September-November which will go against McCain.

As far as asking Hillary to step aside, please don't go down that road. This is a democracy - I believe JFK never lost an election, which would mean he didn't lose any primaries (?), yet I don't believe anyone was calling for LBJ or Humphrey to get out in 1960. At least I don't think so. And JFK won, barely. But he won. The only reason he didn't wipe out Nixon was because he was a catholic. Barack will have the same issue but in the end, he will recover from it. He's got dignity, he's got maturity, he's got intelligence - he'll win in the end.

Let democracy work. Let the voters vote.
A new AP-Ipsos poll?  Who the hell is Ipsos?  One thing that I have learned this year is that following polls on a day-to-day basis is meaningless.  It would be like the average joe following the stock market on a day-to-day basis.  

McCain is polling well because of the heated fight in the Democratic race.  People who strongly support Obama and/or Hillary will say anything that helps their candidate at this stage.  All these Democrats or Democratic-leaning voters supporting Hillary (about one-third) are not going to flock to McCain.  McCain may at best get somewhere between 0 to 5% of the Hillary support.  McCain may have a moderate Republican record, but his present positions, from 2003 and beyond, have echoed GW Bush from tax cuts for the wealthy to an unlimited continuation of the Iraq War.

Once Obama is the nominee, I predict this will happen around June 17th, Obama will go full out on McCain and run his "general election" from June 19th to the National Convention in August.  Obama has already added addition staff to handle running a two-prong campaign against Hillary and McCain.
Universal Health Care?  Not under McCain
Better economy?  Not under McCain
End the war?  Not under McCain
End Free(-for-all)Trade deals?  Not under McCain
FMLA?  Destroyed under McCain
Mortgage crisis fix?  Not under McCain

--------------------------------------
Obama DOESN'T support Universal health care.

Obama will leave the troop in for 16 more months.

ON NAFTA Obama will say one thing to the American Public and a different think to the Canadian government.

Clinton 08
Patty -

Here's another example of the Clinton's decision-making process and why their luggage will keep them from the White House:

From the Huffington Post:

Clinton Firm's Deal Left Pennsylvania Churches In Shambles

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/10/clinton-firms-deal-with-i_n_96032.html
Did anyone notice that when McCain left his seat on the View there was a wet stain on the seat cushion?  Looks like somebody forgot to change his depends.
McCain level of support is going to drop like mug once the Media zero in on him. I have not read any negative story on McCain in the last 5 months. McCain problems are going to be magnified once the media actually do their job.

Here are the potential landmines for McCain:

The widows of Vietnam veterans are mad at him
His temper is going to come back to bite him
His health is a potential disaster – Has he fully recovered from cancers?
Conservatives don’t really trust him
He is prone to gaffe when it comes to foreign policy
How much favor did he give to lobbyist?
How about his family life?
How about his pastor and the pastor (Hagee) that hate catholic?
How about flip flopping on Bush tax cut?
How about Iraq war as a potential land mine?
Finally, is the economy stupid?



I just don't see how McCain can win the women vote, it is practically impossible. First, he is too old let alone charming.

I expect to see more women come out for Obama after the nomination. Most women wouldn't want their sons and Daughters sent to Iraq but McCain is willing to keep them there.


Patty -

Here's another example of the Clinton's decision-making process and why their luggage will keep them from the White House:

From the Huffington Post:

Clinton Firm's Deal Left Pennsylvania Churches In Shambles

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/10/clinton-firms-deal-with-i_n_96032.html

JP Homestead, FL (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 3:33 PM)

---------------------------------------------------

My question is

which luggage is heavier?

CLINTON

Has made a number of political mistakes

OBAMA

has made a number of mistakes that some people look at as un-patriotic/Anti-American mistakes
All these hypothetical matchups mean nothing until a Democratic nominee is finally selected. There's no way the general election will be close--most Americans don't want more war, and that's what McCain's life is all about. McCain is flying under the radar right now because of Democratic infighting, but once a nominee is selected, Democrats will stick with the party. This year, especially, there is a stark and frightening difference between Democrats and Republicans. The turnout among Democrats is so high, there's no way a Republican can win this year.
Before anyone else brings this up - I will - the questionable results in Illinois back in 1960 - I have read that the reason Nixon didn't fight the results was because he himself was engaged in voter fraud in the state.

Don't know if this is true - I can't remember where I read it since it was years ago - but it makes sense.
Obama can not win the GE. He has the wright stuff just not the stuff dreams are made of, sorry.
I will never vote for The flimflam man!
Hello president McCain.
I said it about Bush...twice...and will now say it about McCain:

If the American people vote him in, they deserve everything they DON'T get.



Here is my general election prediction in the battle ground states. I am a realist and i don't see how Clinton can win the primary. Thus, i am not going to comment on Clinton chances against McCain.

Obama is going to carry all the North East states, including Pennsylvania. He is also going to carry every state John Kerry won in 2004; however, Ohio is going to be the battle ground state.

As for Florida, he is probably going to loose Florida but make it up by carrying Wisconsin, and Iowa. Michigan is going to vote Obama because of the grassroots support.

Republicans knows that McCain support is fragile and once the Primary is over, the infrastructures that have been built by both Clinton and Obama will come together.

Like i said, the Republican doesn't have the right message and this election is not about experience but Change. Obama is an embodiment of change and McCain is equivalent to McSame or McBush.


Here's a poll that's just in: 93% of Americans have said that they don't give a rat's rear about any AP-Ipsos poll.
This poll makes no sense.  Sea-change shifts in entire categories of voters for both Obama and Clinton?  I highly doubt it.
Boy you want some baggage to bring along..CLINTON has way way more then Obama ever dreamed of. I do not care what they are saying this is tearing apart the party... I will never vote for Hillary...EVER!!!
Regardless of what anyone says I think this primary battle is hurting the democratic party.  Having said that, these polls really mean nothing at this point because people are so polarized in the democratic party right now.  BUT, if they don't get it over with soon it might not be pretty in November.
I simply have a hard time believing that people fall for these stupid polls...the ONLY poll that counts is what happens on election day in November!  I will guarantee then that President Obama will sworn into office! Bottom line is that most Americans are tired of being led like sheep to the slaughter....we are ready to be involved in politics for the people and a government that answers to it's people!  There is only one remaining presidential candidate who represents that!!!  We really don't need to get worked up about all the spin, the grassroots movement we are involved with will prevail in the end!
Boy you want some baggage to bring along..CLINTON has way way more then Obama ever dreamed of. I do not care what they are saying this is tearing apart the party... I will never vote for Hillary...EVER!!!
Becky Iowa (Sent Thursday, April 10, 2008 3:52 PM)

----------
You are an Obama supporter, and claim this primary is tearing up the Dem. party, but then you make it a self fulling prophecy by stating you will never vote for Hillary.  You, and voters like you, need to take a chill pill, and sit back, and consider this - 4 more years of Bush ala McSame, or 4 years of Hillary Clinton...seems a no brainer to me...I'ld take Hillary over McBush anyday!  And think of all the federal funds we save not having to foot McGeritol's "depends" bill.
There once was a senator McCain
Whose wife heard an constant refrain
For years the same stunt
He calls her a c*nt
Without giving a thought to her pain

UNCONTROLLABLE ANGER IS NOT A TRAIT I’M LOOKING FOR IN A PRESIDENT, JOHN McCAIN IS A SHALLOW MAN.
I believe the media has not fully vetted Clinton. In fact, the media has not reported on the upcoming trial date of peter paul who fradulently gave money to Clinton's senate campaign. Clinton along with Bill and Ed Rendall are called to testify. Second, Clinton has been saying she has experience. I have yet to see the evidence of these experience and the media has not fully reported on this. She did not have clearance to sit in peace talk meetings, treaties and making policy when her husband was president. Yes, she encouraged women to parttake in the peace talks in Ireland, but she did not have clearance to sit in the meetings when the peace treaties were being made. There is a big difference. Third, Mark Penn, Howard Wolfsan and her husband have taken money from Columbia to push the passing of the CAFTA (free trade with the U.S.) Yet she is aganist it. I don't understand how she can have people working for her who don't agree with her position on trade. Fourth, she voted for the Iraq war without reading the information. I am still shocked how she can vote for a war without reading the intelligence report. The list continues. If she is receiving not so good coverage, it is not because of bias, but of her flip-flops. Personally, she is saying the media is bias and using gender as a way to garner votes. In reality, the media has not fully covered Clinton. Point in take, it was a blimp in the media coverage last week when it was discovered that Bill Clinton has a partnership with someone in Dubai. Really, I don't think there has been accurate coverage on the issues that are important regarding Clinton such as lack of experience, donors, lobbiest etc
Obama is not a Yahoo.  Hillary has no more "red phone"experience or other White House experience than Obama,besides just think about it:  HOW DO YOU actually gain experience for a 911 "red"phone call unless you are the actual one their to answer the phone. People who can't figure this out should not vote.  I don't want another 4 years of a Bush Administration either.


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