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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Obama: Indiana could be 'tiebreaker'

Posted: Friday, April 11, 2008 12:09 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan
INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. -- On the second day of his Indiana bus tour, Obama said the state could be a potential "tiebreaker" in the lengthy nomination process.

"I think Indiana is very important," Obama said. "We've got three contests coming up in pretty big states -- Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana. They all have significant numbers of delegates, and they are states where Sen. Clinton and I are actively campaigning." 

"You know, Sen. Clinton is more favored in Pennsylvania,” he added, “and I'm right now a little more favored in North Carolina, so Indiana right now may end up being the tiebreaker. So we want to work very hard in Indiana. While Sen. Clinton has some advantages here, I benefit coming from an adjoining state.”

After Indiana's primary on May 6th, Obama is favored in Oregon (May 20), Montana (June 3) and South Dakota (June 3). But Clinton is favored in West Virginia (May 13), Kentucky (May 20) and Puerto Rico (June 1).

Obama also had words of praise for Colin Powell today, returning the compliments the former Secretary of State had made about the would-be presidential nominee. Obama, at a press conference today, said he speaks with Powell "occasionally" and that he "knows him well."

"Because he's somebody, who I think has good judgment, loves his country, you know is somebody who's council I actively seek," he added and said the two were of like minds on the issue of withdrawal from Iraq. "This is not going to be a matter of just being able to say we are pulling them all out regardless of consequences. What I've consistently said is we're going to get our combat troops out in a methodical, orderly, responsible way and there will be complications.”

He added, "I don't think anybody who knows the situation there would think that it’s going to be easy or simple. It will be a messy process. That is something I signaled strongly when I was questioning Gen. Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker during the hearings this week."

On another sticky issue of foreign policy, Obama refused to comment on former President Jimmy Carter's trip to the Middle East. 

"I'm not going to comment on former President Carter,” Obama said. “He is a private citizen, and you know, it’s not my place to discuss who or -- who he shouldn't meet with. I know that I’ve said consistently that I would not meet with Hamas, given that it's a terrorist organization; it is not a state. And until Hamas clearly recognizes Israel, renounces terrorism and abides by or believes that the Palestinians should abide by previous agreements that have been entered into I don't think conversations with them would be fruitful."

On the recent demotion of Mark Penn in the Clinton campaign, Obama said he would have gotten "rid of them."

"I think it was surprising to me that a high ranking, if not the highest ranking member of Sen. Clinton’s team would be engaged in business activities and lobbying that was directly contrary to a position Sen. Clinton had taken," he said. "I'm not surprised that Sen. Clinton found herself in an uncomfortable position as a consequence, and I know that if staff of mine were putting me in that kind of position I would get rid of them."

But he would not take a stand on the former President Bill Clinton's recent comments on Bosnia, saying that his wife had misspoke and had been turned into a "Madahari" in the press.

"I'll let the Clintons explain Bosnia," he said.

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Comments

I live in Indiana and I can't wait to vote for Barack here!!!  I wish he would come to Bloomington!  Go Obama!
Obama's answers to the questions about the Clinton's show his integrity.  He could have a field day with Bosnia and Penn.  He chooses not to go there.
Let's go PA.  Rebuke the Clinton's. They aren't owed it and haven't earned it and definately aren't entitled to it!
Odd choice of words by Sen Obama. I suppose Indiana could be a tiebreaker...

...if Obama only nets 10 delegates out of North Carolina and Clinton nets 140-some delegates out of Pennsylvania.
Paul... the chances of HIllary netting 140+ delegates out of PA are the same as you being the next president... stay tuned.
Paul Miller:  Please read carefully. Obama said Indiana COULD be a tiebreaker. he didn't say that it will be.  Also, keep dreaming. Clinton is not going to walk away from PA with a net gain of 140 delegates. For that to happen, Bush's friend Diebold will have to interfere.
Good article about the true nature of Obama's fundraising.  Not much different than that of Hillary.  Billionaire bundlers tapping their personal fortunes and networks to get someone elected they think will work favoriably for them.  It's called politics folks!!!!  Your guy is no different then Hillary he just does a better job of dancing around topics where Hillary's straight up about what she'll do.  At least if Hillary doesn't fulfill a promise I'll know it.  Obama can probably talk you out of thinking he every made a committment in the first place.  It's funny that Obama has gone against his pledge to accept public financing in light of the money that has been thrown at him.  Yet people doubt that he'll stand up for those lobbyists when money is thrown at him if he is elected?  Get real.  He's proving what kind of President he would be.  He says one thing and does another when it is convenient and more profitable for him.  So he's not GOD's gift to politics, just another politican.
I'm looking forward to Indiana actually mattering in this primary and it very well may signal the end for Hillary.   As a blue dot in a red state, my vote rarely counts for anything . . . hopefully this time it counts for Obama and get us moving toward the general.
"..if Obama only nets 10 delegates out of North Carolina and Clinton nets 140-some delegates out of Pennsylvania."

A 10 point Pennsylvania win by Clinton would net her 10 delegates.  An 18 point Obama win in North Carolina nets him 21 delegates.  If Hillary won 85% of the vote in Pennsylvania, she would net 110 delegates.  See the Slate delegate calculator.  If Hillary loses Pennsylvania, she will be facing mathematical elimination in the race for pledged delegates two weeks later if she loses again in Indiana.  
actually a of illinois, you wouldnt know if hillary doesn't fulfill a promise because she tends to "forget" or "misspeak about things" on more than one occasion. I call those people liars.
As a college student (Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis) here it's pretty apparent just from talking to various people on campus that there's a fairly even split between Clinton and Obama. I am truly hoping that Barack is able to eek out a win here--not so much because he will gain a lot of delegates, but because any "WIN" from here on out will greatly benefit his image amongst both voters and undecided superdelegates.
Anyone who thinks HRC could net 140 delegates in PA is WILDLY misinformed.  She would do extremely well to net 14 - which will be more than neutralized in NC 2 weeks later.  At this point she increasingly risks looking like a crank - and is alienating the supers.  This is getting pitiful.
Hillary needs to give it up. She has no chance of winning and the only thing that keeps her going is Bill and all of the promises he made to his foundation donors. He assumed then Hillary would be the next President....not going to happen....do the math.
We've already voted absentee in IN--three of us and eight more coming.  Hillary and Bill apparently didn't plan on their "misspeaks" catching up with them so fast.  Good example is her Radio ad accusing Obama of taking oil money when she's taken far more.    Hoosiers don't cotton to liars.
All the small grass roots contributions...yeah,sure.  Obama is quite the political machine behind him and people who still believe he is working for he working class better get a second job.  He is loyal to communities who help him.  He couldn't rebuke Rev Wright because the Black Community started to rebuke him.  So he is just another slick pol who blows with the wind.  If he does somehow get elected (it is starting to look less possible) I will be laughing as all the kool aid drinkers say, "Huh?"
"Paul... the chances of HIllary netting 140+ delegates out of PA are the same as you being the next president."

I'd feel better if Hillary's odds were longer than mine. Actually I think I'll use this occassion to announce my candidacy. (With Clinton math, there's still time to catch-up, right?)

My platform - I believe that the first rule of government is to do no harm. And that's just what I'll do. In fact, I'll do nothing at all.

My campaign slogan - I'm only in it for the pension.

My promises - 1) At least once in four tries, I'll throw a strike on opening day, 2) I'll do my part to revitalize DC by converting the White House lawn into soccer fields, sized for all age groups, 3) I'll pardon no one; not even the turkeys!
Well Paul....you sound perfect to be Hillary's running mate .... stay tuned .... she may call you at 3am .....oh but then again she already has a "running mate" .....Hi Bill!...you coming home tonight?
If the powers that be can read this.....an OBAMA/POWELL ticket would be UNBEATABLE!!!!  
Is about time that the media start addressing how the Obama campaing is raising so much money. still the way that the media is reporting the matter is totally bias compare to how they attack HRC. The damage is done already. However if BHO get the NOM the DCP will loose the general due to the simple fact that 44% of DCP base is voting for HRC. If the polls are correct on the 28% of the HRC supporters voting for the Mc man there is no way in hell that the DEMS get to the White House. Here's the the electability issue that the Obamacans don't get. I'm quite sure that there is many Americans that voted for BHO on the early primaries/cacuse's that would like to take there votes back. The stream left of the DCP has come out of the woodwork to stall one of the biggest opportunities that the DCP has had in a long time. That is to control everything the House,Senate and the White House. It's my opinion that this race will fragment the DCP so bad that the decent will kill the party. If Obama's represents the DCP why he has not closed the deal. The media speculation about Penn is totally out of control will see after the 22 second how accurated the polls are. DEMS is better bad known than good to be known.Some people think that the grass is always greener on the other side, but please remember that we still have to mow it.

Go HRC 2008
"I'm not going to comment on former President Carter,” Obama said. “He is a private citizen, and
******
Oh really, Barry, you'll speak about Colin Powell, who is a private citizen, because he praised you. But, you won't speak on Carter, a private citizen, who has all but endorsed you and is going on a trip that might bring embarrassment to you since it sort of fits with the anti-Semitic trash some of your surrogates put out?  Doublespeak AGAIN. You're a user, Barry.
He meant that it could be a tie-breaker in that it woudl be the third of three big matchups being discussed.  I don't think he meant it in terms of delegates aquired, but rather in terms of states won.  

He's suggesting that it could give him 2 of the next 3 big races.  
if HRC nets 140 delegates....lol paul have you ever heard of the word "proportional"?loooooooooool
I guess it needs to be explained to you
what will happen if Hillary ends up on top with popular votes but trails slightly with pledged delegates...dont' the obamabots agree that the super delegates should vote for her because its the will of the people?
Obama cannot have it both ways. He cannot claim Clinton demonstrated poor judgement on Iraq and then praise Colin Powell's judgement. It was Powell after all who truly made the Bush administration's case for war.

Also, to claim Indiana as a tiebreaker is a stretch. Being in Philly I may be biased, but when it comes down to it, PA is the only one the matters out of the 3 (PA, IN, and NC). Dems WILL NOT win IN and NC in November no matter who our nomninee is. Dems WILL NOT win a majority of the states Obama has won thus far and I cannot figure out why the party won't take this into account.
Odd choice of words by Sen Obama. I suppose Indiana could be a tiebreaker...

...if Obama only nets 10 delegates out of North Carolina and Clinton nets 140-some delegates out of Pennsylvania.
Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Friday, April 11, 2008 12:28 PM)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Seriously, to all the people slamming the above comment; learn to recognize sarcasm when you see it.  Paul is clearly pointing out that Indiana isn't going to be a tie-breaker because there's no way that Hillary can pull off a situation where it could be remotely possible.  Hence, his pointing out a an impossibility like a 140 delegate net gain for Hill in PA.  

So chill out and stop waiting to pounce on every little thing you can.  It shows poor character.
Obama followers need to concern themselves with what he might do after elected. He comes from a racist church where if it had not gotten out in public what his minister preaches and the congregants believe he would still be attending that church.  Do you  continue to attend a church and not agree with what you are hearing? He is very scary and no more than a fad right now. Should he lose the election he will be no more than a "one hit wonder" Should he win the election, watch out.
Obama chances looks better than HRC at this point I would agree that there is no way that Hilary will net +140 delegates in PA she'll be lucky to just break even at this point, I guess she's not paying attention to the polls lately.

It would be great to have a Obama/Powell ticket they will be upstopable in November they're ticket would shack things up in the election. Watch out McCain your next on the list to be eliminated.
a of IL, there is a huge difference. Hillary NEEDS those donors, Obama could survive without them. If you needs some one you will do anything to hold onto them. That's Obama's point. Hillary knows she can't turn her back on them after she's elected, but Obama only has to answer to the people.

I don't know why the press isn't pointing this out.
I pray with all my heart Obama wins the nomination and we don't have to hear the word Clinton's for a very long time.  It is depressing and frustrating to think that Americans would vote for someone who has a semi full of baggage and has created more baggage in this campaign that would follow them into the Whitehouse and embarass America again.
indiana will go for hillary.most people aren't fooled by his bull. he took 213,000 from oil executives. what a liar. maybe he thought he made the (wright) decision
The best ticket would be Obama/Casey. Casey would give him PA in the GE and possibility make the differnce in OH. He will help bring in the low income voters. I believe that Powell will be his Sect of Defense and oversee the withdrawal of troops from Iraq. Richardson will be the Sect of State and possibility Bloomberg sect of Treasury. Also, (maybe) Edwards for Attoney General (what's he waiting for?)

How's that for a ticket??

Obama 08
Finally, someone is looking at the him like a candidate instead of piece of candy. Chris Matthews was actually giggy while talking about him. I have seen Bsrack  say things that makes  me AFRAID OF HIM, "punishment" when talking about abortion, "cell phone" not trying to get "fresh", Cafferty saying he really likes this candidate. Misgynist in male dominate news system. Sorry, guys, all of the  testorone is showing.
Unfortunately for General Powell, who has much to offer any candidate, he may actually play to a liability of Senator Obama.  Those with tin foil hats would have a field day with BHO's first appointment being an Afro-American.  Plenty of other spots to fill, though, if the General is willing to get back into the game.  

Gov Richardson or Jim Webb for VP?

Speaking of VP slots, Paul Miller - I got yer back buddy!  I stay out of your way while you do nothing and battle the press that we are doing the right thing.  Can I have part of the WH lawn to shag golf balls, though?  
Dems WILL NOT win a majority of the states Obama has won thus far and I cannot figure out why the party won't take this into account.
                           Matthew, Phila, PA
------------------------------------------------------
You "assume" they haven't taken it inot consideration, Matthew. Obama isn't going to get to the White House in the "traditional" way that you are use to. He will get there by "re-writing" the Electoral map......one more signal of "change" this man will bring to Washington. Sit back and watch it happen. Go Obama '08
...if Obama only nets 10 delegates out of North Carolina and Clinton nets 140-some delegates out of Pennsylvania.

Paul Miller..............How can Hillary net 140 delegate out of PA, that is impossible!!! Do the math, she would have to win the state by more than 90%, if the that's the case then winner takes all, which will never happen.
Indiana is primarily a republican state.  Nobody believes that either of the democrat candidates will carry Indiana in November.  Indiana's democrats have been beaten down by the Indiana republicans for years now, and they may be used to it by now.  

I would suggest to the Indiana democrats to not let Hillary and Bill Clinton beat you down like the republicans have done.  The Clinton's run the same kind of show and will never see you again after the election.  You were never supposed to matter anyway....Obama understands the importance of Indiana, not just for this primary, but because of your proximity to Illinois.  Indiana and Illinois will benefit tremendously by having a President Obama.
Ummmm, isnt Colin Powell a Republican (so, how could he be VP)???? Isnt Colin Powell the very one that went to the United Nations on our behave to tell them that Iraq did indeed have Nuclear weapons???? Isnt there a conflict here with Obama to accept Mr. Powells endorsement?  Since, he "voted" no for the war???? Obama wont win Indiana or Kentucky!  Go Hillary '08!
I think Obama has just tole evrone just how stupied he is saying this.  Then to use his mother that died with cance  for pitty.  I ame the same age 47 and i lost my mom at 53 too. And i dont have a preacher that has ever said any thing like rev wright has said about white people. AND I SAY TO ALL WHITE PEOPLE IF HE DOSE NOT REJECT MR WRIGHT and you Vote for him you too must be stupid. as of now Hillary has my vote and if Obama should beet her then i  will Vote for John. I know a lot of the whit men that will not vote for a woman is just a male pig.
Mary............50% of Obama donors are regular folks that donated an average of $100. He did not dispute the fact that he has taken money from big donors (everyone does) but 3/4 of Hillary donors are big shots.

Keep laughing because I will be laughing at you when Obama is crowned the next president of the United States!!!

Obama 08
If Ohio could vote again...Obama would win.  Clinton's fooled them, they feel cheated.  Clinton was up 20% in Pennsylvania before Colombia lobbyist hubby and chief advisor/stratigist Penn was exposed.  A state she grew up in, a state she owned, with Rendell saying "whites wont vote for a black man".  But Teamsters, Unions, Postal and Steel workers know what its like to keep losing their jobs.  York Patty's this week - NO LONGER will be made in Pennsylvania, wrappers will say - MADE IN MEXICO-thanks to Clinton and NAFTA.  Ohio would like a revote.  Ask Hoffa.  Bosnia, their tax returns, mis-spokes have nothing to do with it...its out sourcing AMERICAN JOBS and being in bed with lobbyist - literally!
Not sure, but I believe the reference to HRC getting 140 and Obama getting 10 was ironic and/or sarcastic. In other words, the writer was saying that Obama calling Indiana a "Tie breaker" was an odd choice because he is way ahead in pledged delegates so even if he wins NC and she wins Penn., he is way ahead. So tehre is no way she will get 140 and he only 10. I assume that is what the writer of the comment meant. If not, then that's moronic...
But as usual...and no matter the news....IT IS GREAT NEWS FOR HILLARY!!!! YAY!
Matthew - Phila

I am from Philly too and if Clinton supporters can accept they might not win and grow up and vote their interests he will win.  NO WAY can you vote for HRC and then vote McCain and think you are doing anything but harm.
He sure takes the high road... and speaks honestly... even if it means his assessment of some states isn't positive for the primary... Refreshing instead of getting name calling, innuendo and embellishments.  D.
I will drink my Kool Aid all the way to the bank since I wil be buying American Lives and new prosperity for all in America.
We are so lucky to have Barack Obama running for President.  I voted for him here in SC and will be working to get the word out here in NC.  Today at work a Clinton supporter said that Bosnia thing was the final straw.  They will not vote for her.
Yes its 1 person but if someone in my own office has flipped more people can too.
Obama 08  Thangod no more Bush/Clinton Whitehouse.
I have to say that Indiana isn't really a tie breaker since currently Obama is in the lead for all segments except for super delegates which can change.  I would hope that everyone votes in the primaries.  

It is good to see Powell acknoweldge Obama as doing the right thing with giving the speech on Rev. Wright.  It was sad for me to see Powell be tainted by having to give bad intelligence to the security council and to be connected with the administration.  I hope that he will endorse Obama later on this year.  
Some of us know why Hillary is still running.  She is just trying to muscle her way into getting the VP spot.  She knows she cant win.  She also knows that if she drops out now, Barack will not offer her the spot.  But, if she stays in the race long enough, supers will twist Obama's arm to give her something so that Dems can bring the party together.  Clintons figured out that they couldnt win a long time ago...around the time when Bill and Hillary were talking about offering Obama the VP spot.  Thinking that if he commits to offer her the VP slot, they will end the race there and then.  Mark my words...I have always been able to predict the Clintons' tactics during this race.  This will not prove to be an exception.  I still have a lot of respect for Bill Clinton, and will vote democratic in November (although previously I have said either Obama or McCain).  I will take Hillary over JM any day.


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