First thoughts: Take a deep breath
Posted: Monday, April 14, 2008 9:14 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts, 2008
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Time to take a deep breath? In the span of 72 hours, Obama’s controversial “bitter” remarks traveled from the Huffington Post (which published the original story) and the blogs that picked it up, to the campaign trail and cable TV, and then to the Sunday morning shows and last night’s Compassion discussion. And it will likely reappear at today’s manufacturing forum in Pittsburgh (which Obama addresses at 8:45 am ET and Clinton at 11:00 am), and also at Wednesday’s debate in Philly. The story clearly is a problem for the Obama campaign, but how big of one is anybody’s guess until we begin to see some good polls or until after the Pennsylvania, Indiana, and North Carolina contests. Perhaps being cynical, what primary voter that was already with him will now leave him over this? So far, Obama has had an uncanny ability to turn lemons into lemonade -- whether it was over the “unsavory world leaders” brouhaha last July, the “Republicans were the party of ideas” debate in January, or the recent Wright controversy. Will he do it again this time? If so, he may very well be this cycle’s Teflon Man, a characteristic that might not be lost on Democratic superdelegates. If not, we could once again have a real Dem race on our hands. But beware of anyone -- especially the fairly elite political operatives and pundits from DC and New York -- who thinks they have answer. It's always amusing to watch folks (be they candidates or pundits) who haven't lived in a small town ever or in over 20 years try to claim they actually know how small-town America thinks.
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives an overview of the weekend's political news, touching on the "bitter" battle and the upcoming Pennsylvania primary.
*** Does Lee Atwater live? No one knows for sure whether these controversial comments have done damage. But the assumption is that they did. Why? It's the lesson many in the media and in the Democratic Party learned from Lee Atwater and Roger Ailes in the 1988 presidential race. The guy who could really take advantage of a comment like this is Bill (Astroturf in his El Camino) Clinton, and he isn't running. Neither Hillary nor John McCain seems like someone who can easily relate to the folks both campaigns are claiming Obama alienated (more on that below). There's no question Obama is struggling to connect, but are the other two only connecting a tad more because Obama can't? It is very reminiscent of '88, when two fairly elite candidates, George H.W. Bush and Michael Dukakis, were the choices, and Atwater/Ailes turned the more ethnic candidate – Dukakis -- into the Yankee and somehow made the Yalie Bush into the down-home candidate (mmm, pork rinds).
*** Slighting Gore and Kerry? At last night's compassion forum, Clinton surprisingly took a direct shot at Gore and Kerry in trying to make the point as to why Obama's comment was so damaging. Here's what she said: “We had two very good men and men of faith run for president in 2000 and 2004. But large segments of the electorate concluded that they did not really understand or relate to or frankly respect their ways of life.'' So did SHE believe they didn't respect their ways of life? Clinton going right after the Gore-Kerry comparison was a risky strategy, but it may be her only chance of trying to sell this as an issue to Dem primary voters who may not believe Obama said anything that bad. Clinton HAD to make the connection to electability to potentially move Dem primary voters (or more importantly, superdelegates). But it's risky because in order to draw the link, she has to sell a negative message about Kerry and Gore -- something that certainly won't sit well with either former Dem nominee (and it was something Obama subtlely seized upon at last night’s forum). Still, the average Dem superdelegate does believe that, ultimately, the reason why Gore and Kerry lost was because they were out of touch. So while Dem activists won't be swayed by this argument, the cold, calculating superdelegate just might.
*** The Potential to backfire? That said, it’s also worth pointing out that this controversy could end up backfiring on Clinton and (to a lesser extent) McCain. Both campaigns have been fanning the flames with glee, and there is a real sense that the Clinton camp sees this as a game-changing moment. But in a change election, when polls show that 81% think the nation is on the wrong track, there is a danger of not recognizing voters’ anger or bitterness; you don’t want to get caught up defending the status quo. In addition, do Clinton and McCain really want to fight over God and guns -- issues that aren’t particularly strengths for either candidate? They just appear less out-of-touch than Obama. Indeed, Obama struck back yesterday at Clinton, “She's talkin like she's Annie Oakley! Hillary Clinton's out there like she's on the duck blind every Sunday.” McCain, meanwhile, didn’t even show up to last night’s Compassion forum. And it’s probably not lost on voters that both Clinton’s and McCain’s families have millions upon millions of dollars. Sometimes when you try to fan the flames, you can get burned.
*** The narratives are set: What this controversy has done, however, is cement the opposition narrative for Obama should he become the Dem nominee -- that he is an elitist, out-of-touch snob. In addition to this, they will point to his Ivy League degrees, his wondering about the cost of arugula at Whole Foods, and his surprise that folks in Iowa cared what was going on in Burma/Myanmar, and even his now-famous bowling excursion. And they will add a dash of the patriotism card (flag lapel pins, Rev. Wright, that Michelle Obama comment). That narrative matches up against Clinton’s (suspicions about trustworthiness/willingness to say or do anything to win/ Bill Clinton back in the White House) and McCain’s (fine with the US being in Iraq for 100 years/doesn’t know much about the economy/tied to George W. Bush). What does this mean for Clinton's hopes of stopping Obama? Well, right now, the campaign can make the case he's no longer more electable than Clinton. And they NOW believe this small-town remark means they have a case to make that he's LESS electable than she is. BUT is even LESS electable enough, or does he have to become completely UNELECTABLE until Supers move en masse to Clinton?
*** Bill's ties to China? While all the attention is on Obama’s “bitter” remarks, could the man who was the focus of Friday’s news before the controversy erupted -- Bill Clinton -- be a bigger concern for Democratic superdelegates? Yesterday, the Los Angeles Times reported that a Chinese firm, which has generously given to the Clinton Foundation, has collaborated with the Chinese government in its crackdown of Tibetan activists. Why is this story significant? Because Hillary is out in front of the issue of asking Bush to boycott the opening Olympics ceremony in Beijing due in part to China’s actions here, and she repeated her call at last night’s forum. How many other potential conflicts of interest concerning Bill are out there?
*** The delegate count: Obama picked up a superdelegate over the weekend, Rep. Nancy Larson, a DNC member from Minnesota. Larson had been a Clinton endorser, who went uncommitted and now is supporting Obama. The superdelegate count: Clinton 259, Obama 231. In the overall count, Obama leads by 136 (1,647-1,511). He has a 164 pledged-delegate lead (1,416-1,252).
*** On the trail: Elsewhere today, Clinton attends the Philadelphia Democratic Dinner and then holds an evening rally in Bristol, PA; McCain attends the AP annual meeting in DC and then heads to a Pittsburgh fundraiser; and Obama also attends the AP annual meeting in DC before heading to the Philadelphia Democratic Dinner. In addition, Bill Clinton campaigns in Indiana, while Ted Kennedy stumps for Obama in Erie, PA.
Countdown to Pennsylvania: 8 days
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 22 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 204 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 281 days
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