The battle for Pennsylvania
Posted: Tuesday, April 15, 2008 9:17 AM by Mark Murray
Well, the first semi-reliable poll -- post-“bitter” shows no movement, with Clinton still holding her 6-point lead, 50%-44%. Here are more results from the Quinnipiac poll, per a release:
-- White voters for Clinton 57% -37%, compared to 56%- 38% last week
-- Black voters back Obama 86%- 8%, compared to 75%- 17%
-- Women back Clinton 54% -40%, unchanged from 54%- 41%
-- Men are for Obama 51%- 43%, compared to a 48%- 44%
-- Reagan Democrats back Clinton 55%-40%
-- Voters under 45 go with Obama 55% -39%, while older voters back Clinton 55%- 40%
CQ has an analysis of the likely delegate split in the state. As we've noted since Ohio, the likelihood that Clinton will underperform on delegates compared with her statewide voting percentage (a la Ohio) is very high. For instance, in Ohio, Clinton won by 10 points but only netted nine delegates (and that number could go down to eight have the vote is certified).
Clinton will probably net fewer delegates than the point spread she wins by overall. Of course, her campaign is not about pledged delegates anymore, but convincing superdelegates of her electability.
The Philly Inquirer finds undecided PA voters who are more focused on electability. "For undecided Democratic voters in the Philadelphia area, the question that rises above all others is this: Which candidate would better be able to stand up to Republican Party assaults and capture the White House this fall? Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton? Or Sen. Barack Obama?”
“‘My question is - who can win?" Kathleen Joyce, a Democratic activist in Abington, wrote in a typical letter to The Inquirer from undecided voters. ‘The right is drooling, waiting to pounce, waiting to tell America who and what to fear, and start a frenzy, the minute this is decided. It's difficult, but I am trying to think like a Republican and determine what they fear most.’”
The New York Times profiles Clinton's super surrogate, Ed Rendell. "Rendell is redefining the role of political host, putting to shame the other Democratic governors who have endorsed either Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Obama and have helped them navigate their states ahead of a primary or caucus. And his bluntness frequently makes for good copy. For example, he told reporters in March that he would happily support a Clinton-Obama ticket or an Obama-Clinton ticket (‘Either way,’ he said). He said in a recent interview with The New York Times that the Clinton campaign had made some ‘God-awful decisions.’ He also said that women had warmed up to her tremendously during the course of the campaign, after having initially considered her ‘an intellectually snobby feminist.’”)
Steelers owner Dan Rooney endorsed Obama yesterday. “True sports fans know that you support your team even when they are the underdogs. Barack Obama is the underdog here but it is with great pride that I join his team," Rooney writes in a ‘Dear Pennsylvanians’ letter released by the Obama campaign. "This is not something that I do regularly but as I listen to the candidates in this race, I am struck that we continue to hear about the problems and the same challenges that we have been talking about for decades.”
The AP: Gun control arouses deep emotions here. Deadly shootings have earned the state's largest city the ominous nickname: ‘Killadelphia.’ One of the strongest antigun control groups, the National Rifle Association, has 250,000 members in Pennsylvania, more than in any other state. This month the Pennsylvania House soundly defeated a bill to require handgun owners to report the theft or loss of their guns to police. As the state's hotly contested April 22 primary approaches, the Democratic presidential candidates have struggled to avoid alienating either side, to the point of pandering.”
The AP also looks at where the candidates stand on gun rights.
