First thoughts: McCain's econ challenge
Posted: Tuesday, April 15, 2008 9:21 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** McCain’s economic challenge: McCain has yet another opportunity to break through the Clinton-Obama storyline -- and the “bitter” controversy in particular -- when he delivers a major economic speech this morning at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. While the current political debate in the last few weeks has focused on whether Obama’s recent remarks on small-town America will doom him in the fall, or whether Bill Clinton and his trouble with the facts might do the same for Hillary, McCain has said things that are potentially more problematic for the general election. Two of them are on the economy, which has emerged as the nation’s No. 1 issue. “The issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should,” he said in December. And he mentioned this to the conservative Stephen Moore in 2005: “I’m going to be honest: I know a lot less about economics that I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated.” But McCain does have three things working in his favor: 1) his name isn’t George W. Bush; 2) he’s a budget hawk; and 3) he has time to strengthen his economic credentials -- hence his speech today.
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd discusses the aftermath of Obama's "bitter" comments and previews McCain's speech on the economy today.
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The speech: And McCain is using that time to re-brand his economic image. The speech he gives today is more than an economic speech; it appears to be philosophical on how he would conduct domestic policy -- carving out a Teddy Roosevelt approach. In the speech, per excerpts, McCain will make it clear that he isn’t a 100% laissez faire Republican (“We have a responsibility to act, and if I am elected president I intend to act decisively”); that he has a populist message (“Americans are also right to be offended when the extravagant salaries and severance deals of CEOs … bear no relation to the success of the company”); that he’s an ardent tax-cutter (both Obama and Clinton are “going to raise your taxes by thousands of dollars per year, and they have the audacity to hope you don’t mind”); and that he’s serious about cutting pork (“I will veto every bill with earmarks, until the Congress stops sending bills with earmarks”). Unlike McCain's previous attempts to speak about the economy, this speech actually sounds like McCain, both in words and in approach. He read his previous economic speeches -- this one seems like it fits his philosophy. The accountability/transparency argument for both business and government and the call for cutting pork is McCain. He still may have to explain his one time opposition (then support) for the Bush tax cuts, ditto for the cost of the war. But it appears today McCain will finally find his voice on the economy. McCain’s campaign reinforces the speech with a
new TV ad that will air in “select” Ohio and Pennsylvania markets. “Taxes -- simpler, fairer,” the ad goes. “Energy -- cleaner, cheaper. Health care -- portable and affordable… Big ideas for serious problems. John McCain.
*** Obama passes his first test? As we said yesterday, we likely won’t know the damage from Obama’s “bitter” remarks until after the Pennsylvania, Indiana, and North Carolina contests. But a new Quinnipiac University poll shows that the controversy hasn’t seemed to hurt him just yet. The poll, which was conducted April 9-13 (the bitter comments became public on the 11th), has Clinton leading Obama in the state by six points (50%-44%), which is unchanged from last week's Quinnipiac survey. Moreover, the pollsters say there was no noticeable change in the results on April 12-13, when the "bitter" began to receive tons of media coverage. But that is just one clue, and more are certainly to come. Obama's folks are taking comfort in the Gallup tracking which also hasn't changed. Meanwhile, Obama gave his latest explanation of his remarks to the Philly Inquirer and Daily News. “‘The problem was that I just mangled it, which happens sometimes,’ he said. The thoughts that ran together, he said, were that people who feel abandoned find stability in their traditions but also are vulnerable to politicians exploiting wedge issues. ‘As a wise older woman who was talking to me the other day said, 'You misspoke, but you didn't lie,'" he said.”
*** Going for the kill: Question: How often do you see a politician -- who’s leading a contest in high single digits -- launch a negative TV ad? Well, that’s what Clinton (who’s ahead in Pennsylvania but trailing in the overall nomination race) did yesterday, when her campaign unveiled a man/woman-on-the-street TV ad in Pennsylvania that criticized Obama over his comments. “I was very insulted by Barack Obama,” says one person in the ad. “It just shows how out of touch Barack Obama is,” adds another. This is a gamble in this respect: It means the Clinton camp is going for the political kill on this issue, both with PA voters and undecided superdelegates. If Clinton doesn't win Pennsylvania by bigger margins than, say, where polls have things now, will supers deem this tactic as having failed and pressure the Clinton camp to stop the constant hits? Expect Obama to respond on the paid airways in some form today. Meanwhile, the Obama camp has launched a Web ad (i.e., no money behind it) that slams Clinton on her ties to lobbyists. And don’t miss the fact that liberal (“elite?”) op-ed writers have begun coming to Obama’s defense. See below. and
*** More auditions: Another day, another fresh opportunity for more veep speculation. Romney, for example, appeared on Morning Joe previewing McCain's economic speech today. In addition, Biden speaks on Iraq today, auditioning in a way for the Dem second slot. In his speech at Georgetown, he challenges both McCain and Bush on Iraq and foreign policy. “When it comes to Iraq, there is no daylight between John McCain and George W. Bush,” Biden will say, according to excerpts. “They are joined at the hip. When it comes to Iraq, there will be no change with a McCain Administration.” The role of the running mate is usually of attack dog in some form, be it on the personal or on policy. Biden is flexing his ability to challenge McCain, something both Clinton and Obama will need help with if they are the Dem nominee. As for Romney, having him as a surrogate on the economy is probably the best use of his skills right now.
*** And just asking: Wouldn't an Edwards endorsement be helpful this week? In fact, could this be the last week it's still helpful to Clinton?
*** On the trail: Elsewhere today, Clinton speaks to the Newspaper Association of America in DC; McCain, in Pennsylvania, holds a media avail at Villanova University before appearing on MSNBC’s Hardball; and Obama addresses the Building Trades Legislative Conference in DC and his interview on HBO’s Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel airs at 10:00 pm ET. Also, Michelle Obama stumps in Pennsylvania.
Countdown to Pennsylvania: 7 days
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 21 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 203 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 280 days
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