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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



The battle for Pennsylvania

Posted: Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:19 AM by Domenico Montanaro

A new poll: Franklin & Marshall has Clinton at 46%, Obama at 40%.

The Philadelphia Inquirer previews the debate. Clinton and Obama “yesterday prepped for tonight's Philadelphia debate as Obama and his backers expressed a desire to get beyond the flap over his remarks about small-town Pennsylvania and address issues of substance… Tonight's debate will be far from the only time the two candidates appear on area televisions between now and Tuesday's primary. The two campaigns have bought at least $4.5 million of time for commercials in the closing week.”

Also: "Tonight's debate will be far from the only time the two candidates appear on area televisions between now and Tuesday's primary. The two campaigns have bought at least $4.5 million of time for commercials in the closing week. According to industry sources, Obama has bought more than $3 million of time, breaking the Pennsylvania record he set last week. About 60 percent of the money is going for ads in the Philadelphia market. Clinton has purchased at least $1.4 million, her largest buy to date in Pennsylvania." 

Will this be the final Clinton-Obama debate? North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley (D) hasn’t thrown his hat in the ring in his state’s primary, NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann reports. But he’s siding with Clinton on at least one issue -- a proposed CBS debate on April 27th that Obama has not yet committed to attend. Easley, a superdelegate, penned a letter to Obama yesterday urging him to accept CBS’s invitation to the forum, arguing that the explosion of new North Carolinian voters deserve a head-to-head competition between the candidates. “By participating in a nationally televised forum,” he wrote, “you will send a message to those newly registered voters, as well as millions of other North Carolinians, that their vote will count and their voice is being heard.” 
 
Clinton announced her agreement to the debate during an April 3 conference call with reporters, but only after nixing another date -- one that Obama had agreed to -- because it conflicted with Jewish holiday Passover. Spokesman Dan Leistikow says that the Obama campaign is “still determining whether the new date will work for our schedule.” Although Easley has not formally endorsed a candidate, many insiders believe that he is more closely aligned with the Clintons than with the New York senator's challenger.

Uh oh. One of those outraged by Obama’s comments in Hillary Clinton’s TV new ad is actually registered to vote in New Jersey, although he just moved to Bethlehem. “He said he has been volunteering for the campaign in recent weeks, handing out literature and making phone calls. He said the campaign approached him about appearing in the ad, which was filmed in Bethlehem, a city of about 72,000 residents in eastern Pennsylvania where Bethlehem Steel once stood tall. ‘They gave me no script,’ he said.”

Another fun Rendell profile -- this one from the Washington Post: "A reporter asks Rendell if he ever gets pressure from the Clinton campaign to stay on message. ‘I dutifully call in on Saturday nights, I call in to either Howard or Howard's assistant and I get, dutifully get, my instructions,’ he says, grinning. ‘Sometimes I go off message a little bit but -- but I think on balance they're pleased with what I've done. Anyway,’ he adds, ‘I'm not sure they have much choice.’” 

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Executive Editor David M. Shribman, former Boston Globe Washington Bureau Chief, pens an op-ed in the Globe and writes of Pennsylvania’s influence on the talking points of this race. “Now that Pennsylvania isn't a coda to someone else's sonata, this state has changed the subject. In Iowa they force the candidates to talk about ethanol, and the result is a surge in corn-based fuels that may be efficient only if your main motivation is to raise the price of corn. In New Hampshire they force the candidates to talk about taxes, which is good if you think that you can't have a strong economy if you actually collect taxes.
 
“Pennsylvania is worried about rusty manufacturing industries, to be sure, but that was your father's Pennsylvania. Today the state's preoccupation, along with trade, is high-tech and hospitals, and if you examine it carefully you might conclude that the medical industry is the new steel industry here.”

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http://twocanpete.blogspot.com/
Of course they want to get beyond his elitist and racist remarks, they always do. Go to my blog to link to the Teddy Kennedy 'ambush interview'.
PA will go to McCain in the general election.  
So Hillary's going back UP in Pa., and Obama is coming down.
Couldn't just report that without the other non-sense about "Hillary's Polling Problems," could ya.'
No you couldn't.
How typical of a main stream media that has allowed Obama and his supporters to walk all over them, while attacking Hillary over stupid things like tax returns that show no wrongdoing whatsoever.
How about reporting on the Rezko scandal? How about doing some research into WHO or WHAT enabled Obama to buy a house in Kentwood Illinois that he couldn't afford? How about looking into reports that an Iraqi financeer with a criminal record financed that land deal?
But NOOOOOOOOOOOO, you don't want to do an REAL investigative reporting, do you? Besides, cutting into Obama would be against the eliteist's code of ethics, wouldn't it? You can't hammer one of your own can you?
Oh well, I guess it's an eliteist thing, we wouldn't understand, would we?

Bring it on! Obama needs to “close the deal” tonight. The reason he is increasing in his polls is because he has taken a stand. I know that the High Road is in his nature and beliefs… but Clinton doesn’t talk that language! The only way to do that is to come out swinging. He needs to “call her out” on her attacks and her “typical politics”. He should also push her buttons a little to show the American people the 9 different personalities she has.

No more Mr. Nice guy!
Is there a tabulation of all these major pollsters and their prognostications in weeks before primaries compared to the results in Iowa,NH,CA,Tx.Ohio??
It is easy to try and sway public opinion by predictions that are flawed.It would be a true journalistic endevour to get this before PA primaries.
I guess every State needs a debate now :)  Geez, how DID we ever decide to vote in CT, not having a debate...

Did the former NJ resident, at least live in a small town, was it poor or was it one of NJ's affluent burbs.  Inquiring minds want to know.

Hey, if the Obama campaign wants me to go on camera for him, I will.  And I'm sure there's a few other supporters with me on that (if we want to go down that route).  And I really do live in a working class town!
I'm getting sick of every state that whines that there should be a debate in their state.  They could film every debate in Hollywood and you wouldn't know the difference.  They are debating for the 21st time this week, we don't need ANOTHER one next week just so it's in NC.  What's next?  50 debates.  Give me a break already.
Let the stutter and stammer begin.
The weak Obama who can never win the GE is easy pickings for the repukes.
Hope and change are bitter words, words the dems will choke on if BO is the stink in the GE.
Obama is whipping The Clinton's pretty good in North Carolina.  I don't see a debate there doing him any good and a waste of time.  Everybody knows what a liar and a farce The Clinton's are.  We don't need that on television.
I agree with Editor Schribman, it's probably been really good for the candidates to have to go to each and every state.  We might get a better president for it and better overall national policy.
So, we have fact-checked Hillary's offendeds in her Pa. add, and found one of them to be bogus. HUMPH.

I hope Barack leaves her looking as consumed by guile in the debates, as we all know she is. Leave no doubt Senator Obama.
It was one thing to see the debates before it was down to two; it's certainly another now.  Having Hillary Clinton in a position to consume 50% or more of the time given an event is just too much for me.  
all you Obama haters please stop whining. The public is not siding with you BECAUSE your candidate is negative. The Media has blasted obama for 5 straight days about the bitter comment to no avail. So the old whine and blame the media ploy is useless.

Plus they hammered him on Rev. wright for 3 to 4 weeks and he still in the lead. NAME ONE controversy that Hillery has been in that lasted longer than a week....I'm waiting...just as i thought...NONE!!
Hillary and her campaign are in shambles because of themselves.
Stop blaming obama for everything and the MSM for the rest of it. Obama hasn't done it! he keeps campaigning its called discipline, hillary should get some!
DOMENICO, I HEARD THAT THE PREZ OF THE ASSOCIATED PRESS,= TOM CURLEY  IS AN OBAMA SUPPORTER. IS THAT THE REASON WHY TOM CURLEY IS COVERING UP OBAMA'S SCANDALS . THIS IS WHAT I HAVE  SAY ABOUT IT= ===FIRE =TOM CURLEY= FOR SUPPRESSING THE FREEDOM OF THE PRESS.
Uh oh. One of those outraged by Obama’s comments in Hillary Clinton’s TV new ad is actually registered to vote in New Jersey, although he just moved to Bethlehem. “He said he has been volunteering for the campaign in recent weeks, handing out literature and making phone calls. He said the campaign approached him about appearing in the ad, which was filmed in Bethlehem, a city of about 72,000 residents in eastern Pennsylvania where Bethlehem Steel once stood tall. ‘They gave me no script,’ he said.”

Typical clinton...this guy isn't even from penn and he is now an expert on small towns??
So, someone on Hillary Clinton's commercial about Obama's bitter remarks actually is registered to vote in New Jersey, just moved to Pennsylvania AND is a volunteer on her campaign.  Well now, that is a real unbiased rural voter who was instantly outraged at Obama's comments.  What a joke!!!
The people of Pennsylvania should be worried about where all there jobs went,same as the people of Mich,Ohio,Indania,Illinois.With the loss of all the Manufacturing jobs I would think that all these folks would be "a little bitter,a little pissed,a little upset, call it what you want,but know for sure who is behind the loss of most of these jobs.NAFTA! Where are alot of the automobile jobs at, Mexico,The steel jobs China,Japan,The factory job you had got to be to expensive,wages to high,medical cost to high,Unions wanting fair wages for there workers,and protection from greedy owners who tried to cut your benefits.NAFTA open that door for them to excape to more profit.I don't have to tell you who was behind NAFTA.And now they want to snuggle up next to you and tell you that they are your friend and will do everything to help you.I hope you are not holding your breath
"THE ONLY THING WE'RE BITTER WITH IS THAT THE TRUTH ISN'T BEING TOLD ABOUT OBAMA"

You need a reality check... the media hides stuff on BOTH sides! Put this in your pipe and smoke it!

http://hillarytruth.blogspot.com/
BL that would be 48 debates. Florida and Michigan dont get one.
twocanpete,

please SHUT UP and stop spamming these blogs.  NO ONE cares about your stupid blog (obviously b/c why else would you need to spam in order to get people to visit)!  go to some mainstream Hillary sites or something since you clearly wish you could wipe her a$$ for her
Obama needs to take the gloves off tonight and punch Hillary in the head.  He needs to hit her on her lies, her lack of and embelished experience, her and Bill getting rich of the trade deals, etc...  

Clinton's make me sick.
The fog is lifting...the smoke is clearing....the mirrors are cracking....It is good to see that people are seeing the reality of who Hillary Clinton is.  It is good that people can refrain from pulling the lever for a woman candidate even when they've waited all their lives for a woman president. It just has to be right and Hillary is not right. I sense that the majority of Democrats are now ready to send the whining, coniving Hillary to bed.  You know, it's not really that Obama is the greatest choice...I don't knoe the answer to that as yet .... but I do know that Hillary would be a terrible choice.  The country is facing hard times and perhaps harder times to come. We don't need a president whose persona dictates that her interests comes before those of the people. I don't know if Obama is the best choice...but I think he probably is a better choice than McCain.  We need to clear the field to these two candidates so that America can decide....and this needs to happen soon.
"$3 million of time, breaking the Pennsylvania record he set last week. About 60 percent of the money is going for ads in the Philadelphia market. "

Excellent.  There have been reports coming out of Pennsylvania for a week now about 'ad fatigue' and how it works against a candidate.  Also hearing reports how people want to see ads about issues and his ads are often about him.
Obama can't even speak if its not scripted. It is a time when we need a very talented and strong president to fix bush'e mess. We don't need a stutter tongue, weak community organizer.

Oh well, if nominated he can't win the GE anyway.
"$3 million of time, breaking the Pennsylvania record he set last week. About 60 percent of the money is going for ads in the Philadelphia market. "

Excellent.  There have been reports coming out of Pennsylvania for a week now about 'ad fatigue' and how it works against a candidate.  Also hearing reports how people want to see ads about issues and his ads are often about him.
Debate in NC = Free Air Time

I guess the TV stations in North Carolina wouldn't accept Clinton Campaign IOUs.
First Read: "Uh oh. One of those outraged by Obama’s comments in Hillary Clinton’s TV new ad is actually registered to vote in New Jersey, although he just moved to Bethlehem. “He said he has been volunteering for the campaign in recent weeks, handing out literature and making phone calls. He said the campaign approached him about appearing in the ad, which was filmed in Bethlehem, a city of about 72,000 residents in eastern Pennsylvania where Bethlehem Steel once stood tall. ‘They gave me no script,’ he said.” "

WHY IS THIS NOT IT'S OWN STORY, FIRST READ????
This debate is a media joke!!!!!   The major issues are those the media would like to put in the Foreground.  WHAT ABOUT HEALTH CARE ISSUES??  WHAT ABOUT THE ECONOMY?????  WHAT ABOUT THE HORRIBLE ILLEGAL WAR KILLING OUR YOUNG MEN!!!!!  I am absolutely first disgusted with the QUESTIONS posed as important to the PA people.  I don't care about Obamas's pastor, Hillary's mistaken Bosnia comments or the wearing of a symbol.  WHO DECIDED ON THESE INSIGNIFICANT  QUESTIONS INTENTIONALLY POSED TO PUT ANOTHER REPUBLICAN IN OFFICE and throw the American people off guard???  


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