First thoughts: Time to debate

Posted: Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:22 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Time to debate: Here’s something that we probably wouldn’t have said a month ago: Finally, a debate! For a Democratic campaign season that has featured almost one of them every two or three weeks since last April -- 20 in total -- it's a bit jarring to think that almost two months have passed since the last debate in Cleveland. Off the top of our head, here is what has transpired in the interim (in reverse order): Bittergate, the reporting on Bill's conflicts of interests, Mark Penn's work for Colombia and his subsequent demotion, the Clintons' tax records, the should-she-stay-or-should-she-go stories, Bosnia sniper fire, Obama's race speech, and Jeremiah Wright. That's a lot of ground to cover when Clinton and Obama square off for the 21st Dem debate and the fourth one featuring just the two of them. The 90-minute debate from Philadelphia airs nationally on ABC beginning at 8:00 pm ET, and ABC's Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopoulos are the moderators.

*** October 2007 flashback: Of course, we all remember what happened the last time the Democrats debated in Philadelphia: Clinton’s answer on drivers’ licenses for illegal immigrants, which began to change the political terrain heading into Iowa. Should Obama go on to be the nominee, the first Philadelphia debate will always be pointed to as the moment the foundation started crumbling under Clinton's feet. Could we see a similar game-changer tonight? Do note that today is already a crowded day -- with the Pope in DC, this being the one-year anniversary of the Virginia Tech shootings, and tonight’s Radio-TV Dinner in Washington.

VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd touches on Clinton's rising negatives and Obama's potential ceiling in Pennsylvania.

*** Backlash? Two polls in major papers today will set the CW that the Clinton campaign will struggle with: that the attacks on Obama -- while softening up Obama -- have done as much, if not more, damage to Clinton. And that damage doesn't do anything to make the case she's somehow more electable than Obama. Per the Washington Post/ABC survey, Clinton’s unfavorability score is 54%, which is up 14 points since January; Obama’s, by comparison is 39%. Also, 58% say she’s not honest and not trustworthy. What’s more, Obama leads McCain by five points, while Clinton trails the Arizona senator by three. In addition, new LA Times/Bloomberg polls -- which show Obama ahead by five points in Indiana and 13 points in North Carolina, yet trailing Clinton by five in Pennsylvania -- has some similar findings. “Clinton also suffers from being seen as less admirable than Obama. Even in Pennsylvania, 47% of Democrats said he had more honesty and integrity, compared with 26% who thought that of Clinton.” This is the box Clinton's been in ever since Obama took the lead in this race: If she attacks, she raises her negatives almost as fast (if not faster) than she raises Obama's. These new poll numbers from the Post and Times indicate Clinton cannot be overly aggressive tonight and that could mean there's little chance of a knockout blow by her of him.

*** But a warning sign for Obama: While we've been as critical of most of the polling we've seen out of Pennsylvania (there are a LOT of bad pollsters circulating numbers these days which makes averaging VERY problematic), there's a pattern that ought to worry Obama: He is consistently sitting in the low 40s in the state. In fact, his range is strikingly consistent, while Clinton's number is all over the map -- from the mid-40s to mid-50s. Does Obama have a ceiling in Pennsylvania? And does this mean a five-point lead for Clinton in these new polls today could quickly turn into a 15-point one if undecideds move en masse to Clinton? The seed of doubt these last two weeks has been raised on Obama, which may explain the surprisingly high undecided Dem vote this close in. No doubt the hammering of Obama hasn't helped Clinton -- but Obama's not YET benefiting in Pennsylvania; he's simply treading water.

*** Just asking: Do you get the sense that there are a chunk of Dems (both nationally and in Pennsylvania) who, while decided that they don't want Clinton, but don't want to be forced to be the voter that says "Obama”? But if Obama is the nominee, these voters will be ok? They just don't want the responsibility of picking Obama? There's certainly a lot of evidence to support this theory and it explains why undecideds aren't moving to Obama and why many of these white working class voters seem reluctantly with Clinton.

*** Over in June? The Boston Globe reports that George McGovern and Mike Dukakis have joined the call for the so-called “June Solution” of a superdelegate convention to decide the nominee before the August convention, while Clinton supporter Rep. Barney Frank -- who’s the brother of Clinton adviser Ann Lewis -- told the AP that whoever is behind after the last primaries on June 3 should drop.

*** Veep "choice": On Hardball yesterday, did McCain rule out picking either Tom Ridge or Kay Bailey Hutchison as his veep pick. MSNBC’s Chris Matthews asked him if his veep could be pro-choice. “I don't know if it would stop him but it would be difficult… I'm not saying that would be necessarily, but I am saying it's basically the respect and cherishing of the right of the unborn is one of the fundamental principles of my party and it's a deeply held belief of mine.”

*** Fixing his Jewish problem? Obama will meet with about 50 American Jewish leaders in Philadelphia this morning, NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan and Matthew E. Berger report. The meeting will include rabbis, professional leaders and lay leaders. An Obama aide says that the goal of the meeting will be to introduce Obama to the Jewish community and re-affirm his strong support for Israel. The question of whether Obama has a 'Jewish problem' is one of perception more than the fact, the aide adds, pointing to the fact that Obama was able to win the Jewish vote in a state like California, and a recent poll by the JTA showed the two neck and neck in terms of support within the Jewish community. Nevertheless, the fact is that if Obama doesn't fix his Jewish perception problem, he'll hit a 48% ceiling in Florida and potentially put New Jersey in play as well as keep Pennsylvania closer. The difference in winning the Jewish vote 65-35 and winning it 80-20 does matter in those three states.

*** On the trail: Before tonight’s debate, Clinton takes her turn addressing the Building Trades National Legislative Conference; McCain attends an economic summit meeting in Milwaukee, WI; Bill Clinton stumps in Pennsylvania; Chelsea does the same; and Michelle Obama is in Indiana.

Countdown to Pennsylvania: 6 days
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 20 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 202 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 279 days

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Comments

I think it is clear by now that the ‘bittergate’ firestorm was media driven, and fed to and from Hi`liar’y. What is also clear are the numbers of posts devoted to Clinton and the leads she gets within each post. I hope Senator Obama either wins PA, or comes within 6 points. Then we can rightly call for Chris Matthews, Chuck Todd and Andrea Mitchell to eat crow. They can go work for CBS (Clinton Broadcast System) or CNN (Clinton News Network).

A week from this morning we will know. I think everybody wants this over. I also hope the GE on November 4 gets here soon.

Chuck, NY (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:28 AM)

http://twocanpete.blogspot.com/
Obama's recent comments show that even with excellent campaign management and big money behind him, he's just not ready for prime time. Go to my blog to link to the Teddy Kennedy ambush interview, it's a hoot.

twocanpete (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:31 AM)

Ah yes...another Debate, in order for the Obama Obsessed Media to give him a free pass on whatever he says because he's their Messiah, and to show their utter bias against Hillary. I will not watch, because these debates, by now, are a sham, and there's nothing else than can be said, except to respond to questions dealing with non-issues, like bittergate, bowling for votes, sniper bullet dodging, and racist and un-American pastors.

Pat Huntington NY (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:33 AM)

Leave the sinking ship behind......
Hillary Clinton CAN'T win the Presidency
She's TOO CROOKED
She's TOO DISHONEST
Sge's TOO UNETHICAL
She's a LOSER !!

'...Clinton's strongest core of support — white women
— is beginning to erode in Pennsylvania...'

'..."These are Democratic women who waited all their
lives for a woman president, but Hillary is not
turning them on,"...'

Who doesn't like 'race-baiting' ? It's a TURN ON !!
Bill, I love it when you talk like that

'...A lot of white women, and for that matter white
men, want the race to end and increasingly consider
Obama an acceptable nominee....'

From McClatchy Newspapers:

'...White women begin to turn away from Clinton

By David Lightman
Posted on Sunday, April 13, 2008

LEVITTOWN, Pa. — Like many women over 50, Paula Houwen
was eager to vote for Hillary Clinton for president.

"I was impressed when she was first lady. She wasn't
the country's trophy wife," the 56-year-old suburban
Philadelphia pharmacist recalled.

Today, though, Houwen's no longer a Clinton fan.

"I do not like the way Hillary Clinton has run her
campaign," she said.

Clinton's strongest core of support — white women — is
beginning to erode in Pennsylvania, the site of the
critical April 22 Democratic presidential primary, and
a loss here could effectively end her White House run.

A Quinnipiac University survey taken April 3-6 in
Pennsylvania found that Clinton's support fell 6
percentage points in a week among white women.
Nationally, a Lifetime Networks poll of women found
that 26 percent said they liked Clinton less now than
in January, while only 15 percent said they liked her
more.

"These are Democratic women who waited all their lives
for a woman president, but Hillary is not turning them
on," said polling analyst Clay Richards.

The Clinton campaign is aware of the danger, and last
week it began dispatching friends of Clinton from New
York, Washington and elsewhere to key Pennsylvania
communities to have "living room chats" with women.

"We thought this might happen," senior Clinton adviser
Ann Lewis said of the erosion. A key reason, she said,
is rival Barack Obama's ad barrage, notably his gentle
but persistent reminders to TV viewers that he's
well-equipped to heal the ailing economy.

"I can't overcome the media barrage, so we need to go
back to talking to people about their personal
concerns," said Lewis, "and emphasizing her
experience."

Economic concerns are at the top of most women's
lists, and "Obama is coming across to more and more
people as qualified on that issue," Richards said.

Interviews in suburban Philadelphia, an area full of
swing voters who are likely to determine the outcome
of the primary, found other reasons for Clinton's
shaky support.

A lot of white women, and for that matter white men,
want the race to end and increasingly consider Obama
an acceptable nominee.

"There may be a general, reluctant acceptance that
things just don't look that good for Clinton," said
Susan Carroll, a professor of political science and
women's and gender studies at Rutgers University.

The most familiar echo among many Pennsylvania women
when they discuss Clinton, however, is disappointment.
Ask them when they became disillusioned with the woman
who would be president, and they can cite almost the
exact moment.

For Clare Howard, a meditation teacher from
Southhampton, it was the night in January when Bill
Clinton suggested that Obama did well in the South
Carolina primary because of his race.

That went too far, said Howard, 60. "It was like they
would do anything to win," she said.

Joan Schmidt, 60, a school psychologist in Levittown,
grew tired of hearing Clinton tout — and exaggerate —
her experience.

Jane Dovel, 68, an artist in Doylestown, turned away
from Clinton after hearing the New York senator's
reaction to Obama's comments that Ronald Reagan had
been a "transformative political figure."

Clinton fired back that Republicans hadn't had better
ideas. "I don't think it's a better idea to privatize
Social Security," she said. "I don't think it's a
better idea to eliminate the minimum wage."

That's not what Obama had said, recalled Dovel. "What
Clinton said was a blatant lie," she said. "From that
moment on, she was history. She was not to be
trusted."

Obama's increasing ability to convince these women
that he's on their side has contributed to their shift
away from Clinton.

Most are old enough to remember John F. Kennedy, and
it's common to hear them say how much the Illinois
senator reminds them of the young president. "He's
definitely someone who knows how to get everyone on
board," said Jill Saul, a Bristol teacher.

Howard was struck by how much her three children were
impressed with Obama — much the way Democratic
youngsters were taken with Kennedy.

"If I ever want to look my kids in the eye again," she
laughed, "I have to go with Obama."

The Clinton forces realize that a new trend_ Clinton,
after all, still leads Obama among white women by 28
points in the Quinnipiac poll — could quickly become a
tidal wave if left unchecked.

So they're planning more living-room visits, closed to
the media and not publicized, as a way of reminding
people of Clinton's personal qualities.

Clinton is getting to be a tougher sell, though,
because a lot of women have thought long and hard
about moving away from someone whom they've wanted for
a long time.

"If elected, I'm sure she'll do a good job," said
Michele Scarborough, a Quakertown borough
councilwoman. "But I just don't feel she's one of us."

MSierra, SF (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:34 AM)

Bring it on! Obama needs to “close the deal” tonight. The reason he is increasing in his polls is because he has taken a stand. I know that the High Road is in his nature and beliefs… but Clinton doesn’t talk that language! The only way to do that is to come out swinging. He needs to “call her out” on her attacks and her “typical politics”. He should also push her buttons a little to show the American people the 9 different personalities she has.

No more Mr. Nice guy!

Up to you PA (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:34 AM)

Barack Obama

In November John McCain will eat you for lunch and spit out the bad seeds (Jeremiah Wright, the bitter pill and Michelle).

Try again in 2012.

Full Moon (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:35 AM)

First Read,
why are Obama's "bitter" and "cling" comments given so much attention despite their insignificance? Do Americans like to make a huge deal out of a petty situation? Some of what Bill said are worse than what any politician has said this election season.
If voters want to avoid being labeled hypocrites and if they believe Obama is the one who is arrogant and elitist, in an article on Time.com, Hillary was quoted as saying:
"During the 1990s,
I cannot remember being asked about immigration. Why? Because the economy was working.
And average Americans didn't have to go around looking for others to blame" (does she think Americans blame their problems on scapegoats?)
Bill Clinton was also quoted as saying (repeatedly):
"The reason (George H. W. Bush's tactic) works so well now is that you have all these
economically insecure white people who are scared to death."

Jerry S. Oakland, CA (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:35 AM)

Remember Hillary, for the debate tonight, you were against NAFTA and you are currently against CAFTA. Also, change the subject if someone mentions that your husband is lobbying for CAFTA. Oh, heck, let's make it easy. You were for everything good that happened while your husband was president. You were against everything bad that happened while your husband was president. Try not to whine and throw a hissy fit if someone asks you a question before asking Obama. If someone asks you how you can present yourself as a good steward for the economy when you can't or won't pay your campaign bills, then just complain that they are picking on the girl.

Good luck in the debate. You will need it.

Sick of corruption, sick of the Clintons (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:37 AM)

I also find it funny that she brought up everyone calling McCain "McBush"... Obama should fire back saying that she is being called "Billary".

Up 2 U PA (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:39 AM)

Who'll be asking the questions at tonight's debate? I was very disappointed watching Chris Matthews play T-Ball with McCain last night.

JohnnyU, WA State (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:40 AM)

IN MY OPINION THE REASON WHY THE MAJORITY OF DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES AND SUPER DELEGATES HAVE NOT RALLIED BEHIND SENATOR CLINTON IS BECAUSE THEY THINK….SENATOR OBAMA- IF NOMINATED WILL EASILY BEAT SENATOR MCCAIN, SO THEY ARE HEDGING THEIR BETS. THEY THINK THAT WITH THE ECONOMY AND THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS IN THE SHAPE THAT IT IS IN, COMBINED WITH HIS AGE---THAT HE WILL BE AN EASY TARGET COME NOV. THUS THEY FEEL WITH SENATOR OBAMA’S APPEAL TO THE YOUNGER VOTER AND THE AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTER, THE DEMOCRATIC S HAVE A TREMENDOUS CHANCE OF TAKING THE WHITE HOUSE IN 08. I BELIEVE, THERE REASONING IS FLAWED…FIRST, LIKE IT OR NOT, THE REPUBLICANS WILL RALLY BEHIND SENATOR MCCAIN, EVEN WITH MIS-GIVING’S. SECOND, THOUGH IT MAY “APPEAR” THAT THE REPUBLICANS DON’T CARE IF THEY LOOSE THE WHITE HOUSE IN 08, DON’T BET THE FARM ON IT….I DON’T DOUBT FOR A MOMENT THAT THERE ARE SO VERY MANY SECRETS, SECRET DEALS AND HAPPENINGS THAT HAVE TAKEN PLACE OVER THE PAST 8 YEARS….UNKNOWN TO THE AMERICAN PUBLIC, AND THE REPUBLICANS ARE IN NO WAY GOING TO RISK THESE BEING EXPOSED. SENATOR MCCAIN, KNOWS GOING INTO THIS, AS DOES THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, THAT HE, IF ELECTED WILL SERVE A ONE YEAR TERM, SIMPLY BECAUSE OF HIS AGE IF NOTHING ELSE. THUS A STRONG, APPEALING VICE-PRESIDENTIAL RUNNING MATE WILL ALLOW THE PARTY TO POSITION ITSELF FOR THE 0-12 ELECTIONS. FOLKS, YOU HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST HOW THE REPUBLICANS WIN ELECTIONS…THIS SCENARIO IS NOT UNREALISTIC. IN ORDER FOR SENATOR OBAMA TO BEAT SENATOR MCCAIN, HE WILL NOT ONLY NEED ALL HIS EXISTING SUPPORT, BUT THE SUPPORT OF ALL OF SENATOR CLINTONS FOLKS, ALONG WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SO-CALLED REAGAN DEMOCRATS AND INDEPENDENTS….A MIGHTY TASK TO ASSUME. I SAY THIS NOT BECAUSE I AM AGAINST SENATOR OBAMA, I SAY THIS BECAUSE I BELIEVE THIS IS THE REPUBLICAN GAME-PLAN. WITH ALL DUE RESPECT, SENATOR OBAMA IS INTELLIGENT, ABLE, AND SINCERE….BUT HE BRINGS THE REV WRIGHT ALONG WITH HIM, AND THE “ILL-PLACED” COMMENT OF HIS WIFE ABOUT “FINALLY BEING PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN” AND THE REPUBLICANS WILL POUND HIM TO DEATH ON THIS ISSUE AND OTHER ISSUES. PLUS THE FACT THAT HIS RESUME’ IS SHORT ON EXPERIENCE. WHILE SENATOR CLINTON HAS HER FAULTS, SHE HAS BEEN EXPOSED TO THE REPUBLICAN ATTACK MACHINE MOST ALL HER LIFE AND I BELIEVE SHE IS IN A BETTER POSITION TO HANDLE THE ONSLAUGHT OF THE ENTIRE REPUBLICAN PARTY COME NOVEMBER…

Kathy (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:40 AM)

I think that people when polled months ago felt Clinton was the better nominee until Obama comes to their state. This then makes a large percentage of undecided voters, but like in previous states (Feb. 5, March 4) these voters pick Clinton when at the polls. I believe that is why a 20 pt lead turns into a 8 or 9 pt lead, but then Clinton still pulls it out in the end. I feel like a lot of people give Obama a second look, but then when they have to make the final decision they don't want to give the job to the new person in town. That is why Hillary always comes back. Hillary people, become undecided, and then end up voting for her in the end. They want to hear more from Obama and not just topics about special interests and lobbyists. Such a terrible argument to make if you are trying to sway voters. People don't care about that, people want substance on issues!

Natalie (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:44 AM)

HP Boston (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:46 AM)

I am with you Chuck!! This has gone on to long and you can tell it is fed by the media. They make mountains out od mole hills. Wish they would find some real news to talk about!

Sue in La (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:47 AM)

Clinton doesn't care about her negatives in this election. She only wants Obama's to fall so McCain can win. Then she can run again in 2012. How long will Chuck and the gang keep pretending this isn't happening and Clinton is still trying to win in '08??
You'll see tonight, she is going to be throwing everything she can at him to try to drive his numbers down.

Shaun Reilly (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:47 AM)

Terry (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:48 AM)

Look out for Billary to come flying in under sniper fire to the Debate tonight.... And tell lie after lie at the debate...

1. NAFTA
2. CAFTA
3. $109 Million
4. Her New Add in PA on Obama

James Tn (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:48 AM)

So when does this get in the news??

http://www.usdoj.gov/pardon/clintonpardon_grants.htm

Or The Clinton v Paul trial this month on April 25th???

I am surprised that Matthews who was back to normal for a while is now back to being a jerk about Obama after he said he loved him.
Joe S is just a CLOWN. He is a parrot and repeats himself over and over.

So when does MSNBC start reporting the news??? Clinton v Paul????
Earmarks??? Lobbyist ties???? Her laundry list of lies???

How bout all The Endorsements Obama is getting in Pa???

AGAIN. Clinton v Paul april 25th. Where is this in the news????

Nj (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:49 AM)

>> Off the top of our head, here is what has transpired in the interim (in reverse order): Bittergate, the reporting on Bill's conflicts of interests, Mark Penn's work for Colombia and his subsequent demotion, the Clintons' tax records, the should-she-stay-or-should-she-go stories, Bosnia sniper fire, Obama's race speech, and Jeremiah Wright. That's a lot of ground to cover<< says First Read.

_____

I'd add a word to the last sentence. That's a lot of NEGATIVE ground to cover. Oh joy.

YES WE CAN!

Lisa in working class New Britain, CT YES WE CAN! (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:50 AM)

What Hillary Clinton and the media are hiding from the voters
By Kathy Miller | The Hillary Project

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While Senator Clinton is on the campaign trail telling reporters that the use of her opponents' 'bitter' remarks could damage Senator Obama's chances to win the general election if he should win the nomination, a California superior judge will soon be setting a trial date for the historic civil landmark case in Paul vs. Clinton.

16kbill_does_the_math.Apparently the Clintons believe that the word 'bitter' is far more damaging than testify under oath in a civil fraud trial.

For some reason, the media doesn't think that a historic trial to haul a former President and a Presidential candidate to court for fraud is newsworthy.

A status conference hearing is scheduled for April 25, 2008, just three days after the Pennsylvania primary. California Superior Judge Aurelio N. Munoz is expected to finally set a trial date after delayment back in February.

Judge Munoz ruled back in February that Paul's legal team can begin seeking depositions from a host of big names – including Bill, Hillary and Chelsea Clinton – that allegedly were witnesses to an effort by the Clintons and top Democratic leaders to extract millions of dollars from Paul in illegal donations and then cover it up. Discovery is expected to begin in May.

The Clintons have tried to dismiss the case, but the California Supreme Court, in 2004, upheld a lower-court decision to deny the motion.

The complaint says Bill Clinton promised to promote Paul's Internet entertainment company, Stan Lee Media, in exchange for stock, cash options and massive contributions to his wife's 2000 Senate campaign. Paul contends he was directed by the Clintons and Democratic Party leaders to produce, pay for and then join them in lying about footing the bill for an August 2000 Hollywood gala and fundraiser.

The Clintons' legal counsel has denied the former president made any deal with Paul. But Paul's attorney Colette Wilson has stated there are witnesses who say it was common knowledge at Stan Lee Media that Bill Clinton was preparing to be a rainmaker for the company after he left office.

Paul claims former Vice President Al Gore, former Democratic Party chairman Ed Rendell and Clinton presidential campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe also are among the people who can confirm Paul engaged in the deal.

The complaint also asserts that Senator Clinton filed four false reports to the FEC of Paul's donations in an attempt to distance herself from him after a Washington Post story days after the August 2000 fundraiser reported his past felony convictions. Clinton then returned a check for $2,000, insisting it was the only money she had taken from Paul. But one month later, she demanded another $100,000, to be hidden in a state committee using untraceable securities.

Senator Clinton was dismissed from the case as a defendant, but Munoz already has made it clear he won't accept any attempts to block Senator Clinton from serving as a material witness. The judge told Clinton's lawyer David Kendall: "Well, any opposition is probably going to be dead on arrival, if that will – if you understand what I'm saying, Mr. Kendall."

Paul has outlined the entire case in a one hour documentary entitled, Hillary Uncensored, Banned by the Media. Paul believes the Clintons have thwarted the media from exposing this story, and he has set up a website called PaulvClinton to expose and inform the public of the latest news and information himself in the trial.

Perhaps voters should be 'bitter' that this story is not being reported by the mainstream media.

You can sign up on the website PaulvClinton to receive e-mails of the news in the trial as it happens.

Nj (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:50 AM)

I think the Warning Sign post is right on. Obama hasn't closed the gap with Clinton in PA, so much as she has lost some support while he raised his identification a little. The charge that he can't close the deal has some truth to it, but little merit. She may win PA by double-digits and everyone in the media will get excited, ... except Chuck Todd, who will just keep counting the delegates.

This is a twelve round boxing match and Obama is so far ahead on points, and his under-sized and worn out (financially and philosophically) opponent needs a knockout she just can't deliver. He's still the better boxer and he will win a unanimous decision on points.

The media and the fans prefer knockouts, but it is completely in sync with Obama's nature to simply stick and move and win by understanding the sweet science of boxing and politics better than the cynical, over-paid hacks surrounding Hillary.

40 Years in the DemNPL (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:50 AM)

Most of the so called experts have said in order for Hillary to be even in this race, she has to win the PA by at least 15-20 points. A five point lead is not good enough. She continues to have problems in Carolina and Indiana. If she is going to do shots in Kentucky, she better make sure it's Jack Daniels. Doing shots with Crown Royale (made in Canada) shows she is just as much an elitist as Obama. Also having over 109 million in the bank does nothing for her image as a helper to the poor either. that didn't work for John Edwards.

Personally, hope they take this all the way to the convention. Nothing like left wing kool aid drinkers burning down Denver in front of the world to show Americans that liberalism is a disease and not the answer to our so called problems. Everybody knows the liberals caused problems such as gas prices and higher taxes. I'd rather see Obama and Clinton mud wrestle to decide who the party will choose.

This debate tonight is nothing more then a chance for both Obama and the Clintons to take off the gloves and go after each other bare knuckled. The Clinton's will have a chance to show the world what a bunch of lunatics and pathological liars they are and Obama trying to show he is not an elitist. Should make for good TV if they are allowed to do that.

jerry/corpus chrisi texas (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:51 AM)

Chuck from NY is on target. The "Bittergate" absurdity was entirely press and opponent driven. Ironically, it's the ivory tower position of both the McCain and Clinton campaign as well as the media that hindered their ability to realize this. The vast majority of people just didn't care- they are bitter, they are sick of tactical politicians, they are sick of government not working. They're ready for change.

However, I am hesitant to say I think Obama will be within 5-6% in PA. I think it's far more likely that it will fall in the 10-15% range. PA is a strong Clinton state. How this relates to the General Election? I'm sure the resulting Clinton argument will be the same tired and blatantly false accusation that because Obama lost to another Democrat in the primary, that he will somehow lose to an out of touch, pro-war Republican in a General Election.

Ron, TX (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:51 AM)

'...Clinton’s unfavorability score is 54%, which is up 14 points since January; Obama’s, by comparison is 39%.....'

So, who's more electable ?
If 54% view Hillary unfavorably, won't the vote AGAINST HER ?
By definition, UNELECTABLE Hillary !!

'...Also, 58% say she’s not honest and not trustworthy....'

Who wants a crooked President ?

Is she gonna forge a coalition of Clinton and Bush admin 'Dead Enders' who LIKE crooked Presidents ?

MSierra, SF (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:51 AM)

Chuck, NY - I totally agree with you. This has been the longest primary that I can remember and I am afraid that it will end up hurting the Democrats in November. I really feel that we need to figure out another way to do the primary season, maybe regional primaries, maybe one national day of voting in primaries. All I know is that it has been too long and I suspect a lot of people are experiencing burn-out.

Dawn, somewhere in Kansas (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:51 AM)

slow day with the comments or slow posting the comments

pat huntington ny (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:51 AM)

Hey FIRST READ...

You left out my favorite political article this morning (courtesy of the NYTimes).

The Politics of the Pantry (what our food choices say about how we vote).

Check it out!

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/16/dining/16voters.html

Lisa in working class New Britain, CT YES WE CAN! (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:52 AM)

This seems to be a palpable manifestation of the fact that the voters do not want the media choosing their candidate, or overruling a candidate, for them. It's time the media stopped treating us like mindless sheep that follow their will-o-the-wisp themes. We are Americans, we think, we reason, and we make decisions. It's insulting and, yeah, makes me bitter, the way the media is trying to drive this primary. Some anchors are clearly pro-Clinton, others are clearly pro-Obama, neutrality is hard to find, and more attention is paid to distractions then to issues. I understand the media is conflict-driven, but enlarging or creating conflicts to stimulate ratings is less then professional. So-called "bittergate" is a perfect example of the media trying to herd the public into a certain frame of thinking. I'm happy to see that I had not overestimated the voters; they aren't falling for this manipulation.

Rob CA (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:54 AM)

Chuck: I like Hil LIAR y. Nice touch. She has turned out to be pretty pathetic and sad. I feel for her supporters. It's hard to defend supporting her in light of her pandering and kitchen sink strategy toward Obama.

I did expect decency, honesty and integrity from the first woman presidential candidate who I would've been proud to support. She made it impossible for me, as an African American woman. I was torn and Bill Clinton's comments about wanting to see the first African American and the first woman president but felt it was a cruel joke that both happened at the same time, truly resonated with me.

Obama has always treated Hil LIAR y with respect and common decency which cannot be said for her. Yes, I know it's difficult when you are in the fight of your life for what you believe is rightfully yours, but then isn't there something wrong with that train of thought. The American people do not owe the Clintons the presidency. She had to earn it fair and square and hopefully with decency, honesty and integrity. The race baiting, feeding off negative stereotypes, doing her absolute best to make certain that Obama is seen as "unelectable" is going to haunt her forever.

She had some decisions to make along the way and she did not have the courage to do what was in the interest of the country or the Democratic Party. I'm with Chuck. I hope the surprise is that Obama can keep it close; within mid to low single digits and that we can say goodby to Hil LIAR y very shortly.

OBAMA '08

Joy for Obama, Virginnia (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:55 AM)

In choosing a candidate, the "gotcha media politics" seems to shape peoples opinions of candidates. It amazes me that some people, not all, fall for these headline gotcha's. "He doesn't understand small-town P.A." states one P.A. voter. He doesn't? Really? Look at the text at what Obama said, and you'll see that he does actually understand you. He was stating why people fall back on the things important to them,when the government year after year fails to deliver prosperity to their town. Isn't that true for all of us? Or does it really come down to picking the lesser of two evils, and therefore, we might as well vote for the guy ( or gal) that we'd like to drink a beer with or do a shot with.? And we've seen what that "understanding regular beer drinking President can do to this country, haven't we? . And there lies Barack's point. Stop falling for it.

Wayne, Austin Texas (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:56 AM)

Chuck, NY: I am very cautious about these polls. I have a feeling that Senator Obama isn't going to do well in PA. I don't think people are telling the truth when asked in the polling.

And the media in my mind is to blame. All Obama did was botch up his words. But the media has taken it to a whole new level.

Maureen Dowd was wrong - Barack Obama is not Adlai Stevenson - Adlai S. was a cocktail party intellectual who could not reach out to working class.

Barack Obama can - look what he has accomplished in 4 months for goodness sakes. Look just at the money he raised. Look at the youth he has totally committed to his campaign.

And if Barack Obama loses in the general, this country is going to revert back to apathy, not caring, not voting, not anything.

Pat, Boston, MA (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:56 AM)

YES! Backlash. That is exactly the word I used to describe what Bittergate was going to do to Clinton yesterday. I knew it.

I do understand your point about Obama in Penn. I feel about him like I did five weeks ago there...he can close somewhat but the stacks are so high up against him there (competing against the Clintons). There is so much that seems intractable there. He will have a strong showing, I'm sure. The bitter comments didn't help and that's why the Clintons are hammering him on it.

But the general election with the Dems UNITED against him tells a different story. I think he has some work to do, with getting people to vote their economic interests. But its a hard fight against Clinton, not as hard against McCain. I am practical. Obama is my candidate but I'm aware he's not going to capture every vote and the struggle is hard. Hillary says she's a fighter but Obama shows us every day that he is one.

Obama 08

Lisa in working class New Britain, CT YES WE CAN! (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:57 AM)

PA's entrenched political machine is somewhat disturbing, I hope that someone will be keeping an eye on this one, the true wishes of the PA voters needs to be heard, not the wishes of the corrupt political machine, desperate politicians are more than capable of truly despicable acts to achieve their goals, especially when you have people like mark penn and comrades involved

MK,MO (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:59 AM)

Nothing but more lies from the Clintons.
Bosnia and Back Again, starring Sen. Hillary Clinton - TRAILER

http://www.jedreport.com/2008/04/bosnia-and-back.html?disqus_reply=341469#comment-341469

Banko (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:00 AM)

NAFTA-gate worked so well for Hillary in Ohio, I think she thought the "bitter-gate" story would do the same in PA. Trouble is, she brought it out too early, and Obama had a chance to respond and defend himself.
Of course, both of these "gates" were manufactured by the Clinton campaign for media consumption. Chris Matthews noted yesterday that Obama could have "put Hillary away" if he'd jumped on the Bosnia story with both feet, but he refused to do that. The contrast between the two of them becomes more apparent everyday-he's a gentleman, certainly civil, when dealing with her. She's shrill and angry and sarcastic when talking about him. Thats why Hillary's negatives are going up.

Susan E. Bahama NC (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:01 AM)

The polls are hard to gauge this race but I do find it interesting that Barack is "treading water". Hillary is the x factor. She is digging herself deeper with these grating negative remarks. Barack has to find to stop feeding her these gaffs. She is Gaffy Duck...spewing negativity and causing this race to be a cartoon.

http://politicalgrafitti.blogspot.com/2008/04/hillary-and-daffy.html

David Donar, Detroit, MI (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:01 AM)

Chuck from NY, you are so right. I've been seeing this for the longest. Chris, Chuck, and especially Andrea think they are so slick with their biases. But it's obvious, like Chris said, that some voters, like him, have already made up their minds about this election in 1957 (Hint racist voters will not vote for a black candidate). And if anyone thinks that these narrow-minded voters will determine the democratic nominee, they got another thing coming because the democratic party will definitely have a serious problem on their hands. African Americans, the young vote of all colors, and many progressive whites will sit this general election out or vote the other way. They will not be strong armed by a bunch of narrow-minded racists.

Carl, MI (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:01 AM)

Hey Chuck Todd!???? When are we going to hear news on Paul v Clinton?? Not news worthy? Are you afraid to look into it?

Sue in La (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:02 AM)

"That's a lot of ground to cover ..."

That's a lot of nonsense that the moderator's should avoid covering and rather stick to domestic and foreign policy issues that people need to know about so that they can make an informed decision about who they feel safer with occupying the White House.

Margaret, Columbus, Ohio (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:04 AM)

Obama the affirmative action candidate that the media won't lay a glove on. Obama and his Mecca comments and blames Hillary and McCain.

Obams makes me sick and his wife even sicker.

never fooled by Obama and he needs to be vetted (NOW) (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:05 AM)

You state that Obama's Jewish problem is one more of perception than of fact. Any idea of who is fanning the perception? Could if be someone who wears pantsuits, has been known to misspeak and she and her hasband have earned over $100 million since leaving the White House. I am sure she might have some major henchpeople on the job, as is her pattern. But everything is cooked up in her "kitchen" at least. " as far as I know"

Gerry, Vancouver, Canada (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:05 AM)

Obama is weak, very weak, he will never win the GE!
I will never have to say I ever voted for such a weak inexperienced loser.
It is sad to see so many ill informed gullible people duped and conned into the frenzy of a media election. Sad, scary and dangerous.
HP Boston (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:46 AM)

I say the same things about The Clinton's.....
Mommy riding on her daddy's record......

it is sad scary and dangerous that a liar such as Hillary Clinton is even allowed to run for President.

Her record as first lady is laughable....
Her record as a Senator wouldn't get her elected student council president elsewhere.....
Her telling the truth is even sadder.......

A bitter nasty woman
Hillary Clinton
A liar for all seasons.

jerry/corpus chisti texas (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:05 AM)

well i hope she can knock him out and all the poles have been wrong befor maybe they are this time also anyway as yall have reported he is just as unelectable as she is and i think she still has just as good of a chance as he dose as being the nominee we will see

debra1953 ga (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:06 AM)

"These new poll numbers from the Post and Times indicate Clinton cannot be overly aggressive tonight and that could mean there's little chance of a knockout blow by her of him. "

It's the moderators who should be aggressive, with BOTH of them. Viewers are sick of what one pundit called this grenade tossing between the two of them.

Margaret, Columbus, Ohio (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:07 AM)

Look people, the CLINTONS ARE PLAYING BOTH ENDS AGAINST THE MIDDLE. Take a close look at it. Bill is on the money end and Hilary on the power end. Each working both ends against the middle and voters are right in the middle being played for suckers. They wear their facade well and it's amazing to me how many are falling for it.

Obama felt the pain of the Pennsylvanians and tried to convey it to them and look at what the Clintons do with it. Try to divide people again through apathy instead of unite people with empathy.

What Obama was trying to say to you was this:

You had you jobs, your pensions, your health care, you livlihoods ripped away from you. So the things you have left (your most valued possessions): your faith your families, your guns (because you’re a hunting community) your friends, you don’t want to have them taken from you as well so you hold tight to those. Holding on to these valued things are what helps get us through the tough times. He was showing that he feels the plight of those in this situation.

The Clintons, instead of feeling your pain, again, ARE USING YOU PENNSYLVANIANS (voters) to get at Obama.

This is the Clintons, anything to get a vote including tearing people apart instead of bringing people together. Pathetic!4

Paul C (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:08 AM)

Ever listen to Obama speak when its not scripted.
Uh..well..(long pause) I..I (another long pause)..
you see....I think.. Bla Bla bla. He is a fake, inexperienced community organizer, that is not qualified to be president. I can't beleive that more people cannot see through this. If elected he will crash and burn just like Jimmy Carter. I cannot vote for a republican and I cannot vote for this Obama joke!

Brother Odd (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:11 AM)

Why doesn't MSM reporting on the Rezko trial? rezkowatch.blogspot.com
Why doesn't the MSM report on the truth about Obama?
slickbarry.com
Why doesn't the MSM report about the Larry Sinclair story?
Its very clear that MSNBC is biased and pro-Obama. That's fine but I thought the media was supposed to report the facts too.
Terry (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:48 AM)

--------------------------------------------------

Wow, try and keep up with us, here, Terry.

1. Senator Obama is not charged with any wrongdoing as it relates to Obama...and there was mention here yesterday of the trial...it had to do with him being at a party...hardly damning evidence of anything.

2. Truth or Opinion?

3. Larry Sinclair has long since been debunked. Whitehouse.com paid for Sinclair to take a polygraph test back around the end of February. He failed.

Pete - Albany, NY (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:11 AM)

I am certainly NOT looking forward to another debate. I mean if voters don't have a fair understanding of Clinton and Obama by now from the last 20 debates, then just go to their respective websites and educate yourself on the issues. Or visit: http://www.aarp.org/issues/dividedwefail/

Debates don't tell you anything about a voter. They have become 30-second sound bite hunts by the media as well as immature shouting contests.

Demarcus J., Columbia, Tennessee (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:11 AM)

Look, some news person pulled me off the street on my way to church, and asked me if I was "Bitter". I said, you bet I am angry and bitter, that I was heading to church to pray I don't go home and shoot somebody...He told the truth.
Now I had to watch Mrs Clinton's ad last night how people in PA feel he doesn't speek for them, I knew the lady on there and she is a Clinton supporter. Also anyone saying they aren't bitter, are either well off or doing just fine.
Enough of this political garbage...I'm trying to save my home I have had for eleven years...this media garbage solves nothing...I got one guy talking about islamic fanaticism, another talking about what she can do for me while pocketing 120 million, and a young african american guy I have no clue where he stands...This is the best we can do...unbelievable.

John, Scranton, PA (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:12 AM)

"Do you get the sense that there are a chunk of Dems (both nationally and in Pennsylvania) who, while decided that they don't want Clinton, but don't want to be forced to be the voter that says "Obama”? "

No, I hope my sense is right that superdelegates and other Dems are finally beginning to focus (and worry) about electability. The electoral college is going to rule no matter what anyone thinks about the remaining primary contests. And right now, Hillary is hugely ahead of Obama in the electoral college scenario. Obama cannot beat McCain. Obama has won the wrong (red) states.

Margaret, Columbus, Ohio (Sent Wednesday, April 16, 2008 10:13 AM)

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