First thoughts: Time to debate
Posted: Wednesday, April 16, 2008 9:22 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Time to debate: Here’s something that we probably wouldn’t have said a month ago: Finally, a debate! For a Democratic campaign season that has featured almost one of them every two or three weeks since last April -- 20 in total -- it's a bit jarring to think that almost two months have passed since the last debate in Cleveland. Off the top of our head, here is what has transpired in the interim (in reverse order): Bittergate, the reporting on Bill's conflicts of interests, Mark Penn's work for Colombia and his subsequent demotion, the Clintons' tax records, the should-she-stay-or-should-she-go stories, Bosnia sniper fire, Obama's race speech, and Jeremiah Wright. That's a lot of ground to cover when Clinton and Obama square off for the 21st Dem debate and the fourth one featuring just the two of them. The 90-minute debate from Philadelphia airs nationally on ABC beginning at 8:00 pm ET, and ABC's Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopoulos are the moderators.
*** October 2007 flashback: Of course, we all remember what happened the last time the Democrats debated in Philadelphia: Clinton’s answer on drivers’ licenses for illegal immigrants, which began to change the political terrain heading into Iowa. Should Obama go on to be the nominee, the first Philadelphia debate will always be pointed to as the moment the foundation started crumbling under Clinton's feet. Could we see a similar game-changer tonight? Do note that today is already a crowded day -- with the Pope in DC, this being the one-year anniversary of the Virginia Tech shootings, and tonight’s Radio-TV Dinner in Washington.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd touches on Clinton's rising negatives and Obama's potential ceiling in Pennsylvania.
***
Backlash? Two polls in major papers today will set the CW that the Clinton campaign will struggle with: that the attacks on Obama -- while softening up Obama -- have done as much, if not more, damage to Clinton. And that damage doesn't do anything to make the case she's somehow more electable than Obama. Per the
Washington Post/ABC survey, Clinton’s unfavorability score is 54%, which is up 14 points since January; Obama’s, by comparison is 39%. Also, 58% say she’s not honest and not trustworthy. What’s more, Obama leads McCain by five points, while Clinton trails the Arizona senator by three. In addition, new
LA Times/Bloomberg polls -- which show Obama ahead by five points in Indiana and 13 points in North Carolina, yet trailing Clinton by five in Pennsylvania -- has some similar findings. “Clinton also suffers from being seen as less admirable than Obama. Even in Pennsylvania, 47% of Democrats said he had more honesty and integrity, compared with 26% who thought that of Clinton.” This is the box Clinton's been in ever since Obama took the lead in this race: If she attacks, she raises her negatives almost as fast (if not faster) than she raises Obama's. These new poll numbers from the Post and Times indicate Clinton cannot be overly aggressive tonight and that could mean there's little chance of a knockout blow by her of him.
*** But a warning sign for Obama: While we've been as critical of most of the polling we've seen out of Pennsylvania (there are a LOT of bad pollsters circulating numbers these days which makes averaging VERY problematic), there's a pattern that ought to worry Obama: He is consistently sitting in the low 40s in the state. In fact, his range is strikingly consistent, while Clinton's number is all over the map -- from the mid-40s to mid-50s. Does Obama have a ceiling in Pennsylvania? And does this mean a five-point lead for Clinton in these new polls today could quickly turn into a 15-point one if undecideds move en masse to Clinton? The seed of doubt these last two weeks has been raised on Obama, which may explain the surprisingly high undecided Dem vote this close in. No doubt the hammering of Obama hasn't helped Clinton -- but Obama's not YET benefiting in Pennsylvania; he's simply treading water.
*** Just asking: Do you get the sense that there are a chunk of Dems (both nationally and in Pennsylvania) who, while decided that they don't want Clinton, but don't want to be forced to be the voter that says "Obama”? But if Obama is the nominee, these voters will be ok? They just don't want the responsibility of picking Obama? There's certainly a lot of evidence to support this theory and it explains why undecideds aren't moving to Obama and why many of these white working class voters seem reluctantly with Clinton.
*** Over in June? The Boston Globe reports that George McGovern and Mike Dukakis have joined the call for the so-called “June Solution” of a superdelegate convention to decide the nominee before the August convention, while Clinton supporter Rep. Barney Frank -- who’s the brother of Clinton adviser Ann Lewis -- told the AP that whoever is behind after the last primaries on June 3 should drop.
*** Veep "choice": On Hardball yesterday, did McCain rule out picking either Tom Ridge or Kay Bailey Hutchison as his veep pick. MSNBC’s Chris Matthews asked him if his veep could be pro-choice. “I don't know if it would stop him but it would be difficult… I'm not saying that would be necessarily, but I am saying it's basically the respect and cherishing of the right of the unborn is one of the fundamental principles of my party and it's a deeply held belief of mine.”
*** Fixing his Jewish problem? Obama will meet with about 50 American Jewish leaders in Philadelphia this morning, NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan and Matthew E. Berger report. The meeting will include rabbis, professional leaders and lay leaders. An Obama aide says that the goal of the meeting will be to introduce Obama to the Jewish community and re-affirm his strong support for Israel. The question of whether Obama has a 'Jewish problem' is one of perception more than the fact, the aide adds, pointing to the fact that Obama was able to win the Jewish vote in a state like California, and a recent poll by the JTA showed the two neck and neck in terms of support within the Jewish community. Nevertheless, the fact is that if Obama doesn't fix his Jewish perception problem, he'll hit a 48% ceiling in Florida and potentially put New Jersey in play as well as keep Pennsylvania closer. The difference in winning the Jewish vote 65-35 and winning it 80-20 does matter in those three states.
*** On the trail: Before tonight’s debate, Clinton takes her turn addressing the Building Trades National Legislative Conference; McCain attends an economic summit meeting in Milwaukee, WI; Bill Clinton stumps in Pennsylvania; Chelsea does the same; and Michelle Obama is in Indiana.
Countdown to Pennsylvania: 6 days
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 20 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 202 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 279 days
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