First thoughts: Obama's tough night

Posted: Thursday, April 17, 2008 9:05 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Obama’s tough night: Last night wasn’t a good debate for Obama. Period. But it wasn't a great debate for Clinton either. Of course, that may not matter to her campaign -- in a two-way debate, it's not about which candidate narrowly wins, but which candidate gets pummeled in the post-debate reviews. And Obama is getting pummeled because, well, he did get pummeled, a bit by Clinton and a little bit by the moderators. In the first 40 minutes of the debate, most of the questions were focused on Obama's negatives (except for a lone Bosnia-sniper question to Clinton, with no follow up) and that's what helped create what was a near disastrous performance for the front-runner. Obama was weak in a lot of his answers on his personal negatives. (Did he really compare Tom Coburn to a one-time '60s radical/terrorist?) Meanwhile, Clinton piled on, particularly (and surprisingly, actually) on Bill Ayers, the former '60s radical who has tenuous ties to Obama. We’re not sure if Clinton's piling on ever is good for her in the long run -- see her current poll standing -- it created some post-debate issues for Obama. Many news organizations will feel compelled to do Ayers stories in the next few days (and they already have). While some may question the fairness and relevancy of the Ayers issue, it's not going to be good for Obama.

*** Backlash? This debate is going to lead a lot of Obama supporters to ratchet up the calls on Clinton to either withdraw or tone down the attacks. Clinton supporters will point to this debate as proof that he's not yet ready for the general, that's why she should stay in, and that's why superdelegates should overturn the winner of pledged delegates. Still, Obama supporters -- and probably some neutral Democrats, too -- are going to be livid at how damaging this debate was to both of them. And the calls for getting the primary over with are going to rise. Indeed, per an aide, the Obama campaign is going to try to seize on last night’s negativity by announcing the support of Pennsylvania voters “who have switched their allegiance from Clinton to Obama, largely because of her negativity.”

VIDEO: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray gives a post-game analysis of last night's debate and looks ahead at the approaching Pennsylvania primary.

*** Where we go from here: Overall, with the spotlight on him very bright, Obama didn't step up. He got rattled early on and never picked his game back up. Clinton wasn't very warm (outside of he first few minutes), but she didn't have the spotlight on her very bright. And as we've noted here quite a few times, whenever the spotlight is on one candidate, the other seems to benefit. Last night, the spotlight was on Obama, and for a short period of time, expect Clinton to benefit. But the question is whether she can sustain any benefit since as the negativity goes on, she pays a bigger price than Obama. Let's see what Pennsylvania decides in five days. A big Clinton victory and this debate will be seen as an important turning point. But a narrow victory (less than five points) and she could find herself facing more calls to get out.

*** Two other takeaways: Could last night’s true winner be John McCain? That appears to be the scoring by quite a few pundits. One other thing, and you can take this to the bank: that was the final debate of the primary season. The Obama folks still control the debate schedule and until they don't, don't count on more debates. The control could change, but not before May 6.

*** The delegate count: Obama picked up an Oklahoma superdelegate, add-on Reggie Whitten. Clinton now leads in superdelegates 257-235. Since Sunday, Obama has picked up five supers to Clinton’s zero. With his three elected superdelegate pick-ups yesterday, Obama has moved past Clinton among the group (U.S. Senators, Reps and governors): 96-94. In the overall count now, Obama leads by 142 (1,651-1,509). He has a 164 pledged-delegate lead (1,416-1,252).

*** Flash Gordon: All three presidential candidates meet with British PM Gordon Brown at the British embassy in DC today. Obama goes at 9:00 am ET, McCain goes at 10:00 am ET, and Clinton goes at 11:00 am ET. Why do we have visions of the three presidential candidates all waiting in the waiting area -- like at the doctor’s or dentist’s office? Per NBC’s John Yang, Brown also meets with President Bush today and will hold a joint news conference (two questions from British reporters, two questions from the White House press corps).

*** On the trail: Elsewhere today, Clinton stops by Haverford College, tapes an appearance on Colbert, and attends a block party in Philly; Obama heads to North Carolina, stumping in Raleigh and Greenville; and Bill Clinton has a whopping six campaign events in Pennsylvania.

Countdown to Pennsylvania: 5 days
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 19 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 201 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 278 days

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Comments

Boogeyman:

You make a good point about Clinton pardoning terrorists. We have to remember something though. Hillary was opposed to everything bad that happened during Bill's administration, and she was in favor of everything good that happened. She was especially unhappy about the Marc Rich pardon. In fact, she was so unhappy about it, that she almost didn't accept the huge donation that Rich's wife made to her campaign right after the pardon was issued.

Obama in 2008. Integrity matters and the Clintons have none.

Sick of corruption, sick of the Clintons (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 9:38 AM)

I can't belive how Obama folded up last night!
Maybe we need to take a second look at him. If he does this against McCain we'll lose the election.

Concerned Democratic Voter (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 9:39 AM)

KUDOS to ABC News for exemplifying what TRUE Journalism is all about !!

HATS OFF !! FINALLY - others are beginning to wake up to the realization that Sen. Obama is not the person he claims to be !!!

KUDOS TO ABC !! (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 9:41 AM)

So BO is rattled by "hard" questions from a senior Citizen and a dwarf. God help us when he sits down with no preconditions with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Does he accept a nuclear Iran? If not what are his ideas to try and stop/slow down their development. will he take any action against the logistics and training of Iraqi militias that are attacking GI's? You still think this guy is ready for prime time?

Alan, NJ (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 9:41 AM)

Last night was not a go girl moment!

I; like him was very annoyed. It was only tough for him, because he did not want to go negative, but she did not have a problem with it.

This was clearly trying to get to those rural voters, because it wasn't on cable news. They knew many would watch the debate and that many may not have cable, so this was clear moment for them showcase Wright, Ayers, and a darn flag pin.

More poison that won't solve anything. After last night, I will be standing firm on my position of not voting for her. I don't care how high she gets in politics, I will always view her as an assassin to the Democratic Party.

Michelle Zee ABC (A Bunch of Crock) (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 9:48 AM)

Did we watch the same debate. I saw Obama getting asked alot of stupid questions and him answering them quite well. I never saw "his feathers getting ruffled" at all. Why are you misrepresenting the debate like this?

He is STILL going to win and your lies won't make any difference.

Kristen, Austin (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 9:48 AM)

I don't suppose anyone has had a chance to review the fact that every single poll out today shows that indeed Obama won the debate. Also the votes on MSNBC's own polling (though unscientific) show Obama slaughtered Hillary in public opinion. If you ask me it was brilliant on his part. He rope a doped her. He sat there taking punches like a sacrificial lamb while she gleefully looked on. It showed all of us how she really is and how honest and sincere he really is. It should also have made a few people feel guilty for attacking him for things that aren't his fault like what other people have done, his name, who his father was, that someone he met was in a controversial group. I might add that all this crap about holding him responsible for things other people have done is stupid. What about holding Hillary responsible for what her associates have done like here husband who is a cheat, her brother in law who is a criminal etc. Why don't we discuss that? No its the guy who is black and has the weird name that we blame for knowing someone who may or may not believe something etc etc its stupid on both accounts.

shawn, mobile, alabama (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 9:49 AM)

Last night's debate reflects like a mirror where voters are with respect to the Democratic nomination. The negativity, cultivated 24/7 with increasing vigor and recklessness by Senator Clinton has all of us, including Senator Obama absolutely exhuasted. We've reached the saturation point. We want Obama to be the nominee and get on with the general election. Senator Clinton's presumptive nominee-anything-goes-posture is beyond unbecoming. Since when did one's ability to bloody the opposing candidate make someone more deserving (or qualified) to lead the world's most powerful democracy?

Andrea Gaines, Lincoln, Virginia (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 9:49 AM)

I'm seeing alot of deflection from the severity ABC's national embarrassment by your network this morning. Let's be clear. In no way should that type of behavior in journalism be defended by MSNBC. That was a shot fired across the bow of the people - it's people v. media if that becomes a normal "debate". Accordingly, defending ABC, or sticking up for your journalism buddies who behave in like, is standing against providing the public with real information.

There was no winner of that. The public was the loser.

Darren White (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 9:50 AM)

WHAT A JOKE!!!

I was accually hoping that the debate would finnaly concentrate on the issues and that the moderators would help to keep the candidates on issue.

The only thing this debate did was make John McCain look really good.

What aq Joke. I thought Moderators were supposed to (Moderate). I guess they did just like ABC wanted them too. Do you suppose this might be part of the problem. The reason that so many people are referring to the media as "THE JOKERS".

Now, I feel so much better. Think I'll go play golf.

BC (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 9:55 AM)

I would not be ticked off at the questions, I would be more ticked off at the answers or lack thereof. How is Obama going to stand up to McCain? Or worse, world leaders. I thought the debate was an eyeopener for many Americans.

Kate, Derry, NH (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 9:55 AM)

I have never seen such a hacthet job .This was not a debate, this was abc playing judge and jury,taking into consideration that some of the questions came from Shawn Hannity a person that has shown his dislike for A,A.,and to let a former clinton staff member George Stepalloverus throw softballs to the former boss hillie.This was a clear smear job,stuff you would read on a bathroom stall,a knee job as the hillbillys call it.I know that abc has the lowest ratings nationally ,whens the last time you watched there channal?This will not change the game like Obama said last night "the American people are smarter then that"What I saw last night was worst excuse of journalism.and I would think that abc is the laughing stock of the industry

jesse St.Paul Minnesota (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 9:56 AM)

Last nights debate was a clear indication of how either nominee with hold up in the general against the Republicans. I thought ABC did a terrible job, but I agree with them hitting both candidates hard. This was a preview into the fall, and Obama failed.

Is this guy ready to stand up against both Republicans, and world leaders? Is he going to be defensive, and evasive?

I believe there is hope for Obama, but he simply is not ready. While you may not agree with Hillary, not like her, she is strong and ready.

Joe, Portland OR (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 9:56 AM)

There is no way that a person with a fair and open mind can continue to say Obamma has been given the pass. The last few weeks have shown a well deserved critical review of this man.
Hopefully he has been humbled and grows from the experiance.
The Hillster showed that she while tougt rose above the frey and did not go for the juggler of this wonded candidate. By saying SEnator Obamma could win she extemnded the Olive brance of unity.
The question now is: Are the delegates too bitter to vote with an open and fair mind?

David R. Haight Geneva NY (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:01 AM)

worst debate so far! The average citizen is facing serious issues and they are not being addressed. Frankly, I don't care to hear about what people Obama knows have to say I do care about what he plans to do for us. I want to hear about what taxes will be raised, what about capital gains, student college credits etc. We need real answers! Last night ZHillary said if Iran attacks any nation in the middle East we will get involved. I need to hear exactly what plans all 3 candidates have in that regard.
The media is so tabloid orineted that they are not providing us with precise details we need to know to make the right decision in November.
Is there any media out there that can deal with the real issues and get real answers for us?

Demetri New Jersey (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:03 AM)

The problem with that debate was, Mr. Stephanopoulos was formerly Bill Clinton's most brilliant political strategist. He is still friends with the Clintons from what I have been told. So, to be fair, he should have refused to be a moderator and question asker in this debate. Even Jeb Bush did not take part in that mess in Florida that ultimately got GW Bush elected to the white house for the first time. Jeb Bush stepped aside and did nothing either way in Florida. Mr. Stephanopoulos should have done the same, because he could not be impartial. He is a human being, and not a machine. Because of this, Hillary had a lot of unintentionial help in that debate, which made it a gangup on Obama. I just hope the people of the US and especially Pennsylvania realize this, and respond in Obama's defense accordingly.

Tex, Port Aransas, Texas (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:04 AM)

It's astounding to me that, considering the vapidity of the debate last night, all that Chuck Todd and the rest of these lackeys here at msnbc have to say is "bad debate for Obama."

It was a colossally bad debate for American democracy. ABC wasted everybody's time by taking an hour to get to the issues -- the war, the economy. Health care, the energy debate, the mortgage crisis, global climate change -- all of these real issues took a back seat to "Bittergate" and Bosnia and made-in-China American lapel pins.

That some would come on here and tell us what a great debate it was shows us just how lazy the American media has gotten and how complicit Americans are in allowing it to happen. The idea that some care more about American lapel pins than health care is a disgrace and helps to explain why our leaders tend to be so utterly mediocre nowadays.

Further, it shows to what depths the media in the U.S. has sunk that the people here at msnbc have no criticism for ABC whatsoever. To further illustrate the media's laziness, the only analysis they included here at First Read was word-for-word what they put here last freaking night! Geez! You can't even come up w/ anything original to say?

the media is lazy (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:05 AM)

I am sure the attacks by the moderators and Hillary will backlash given that this is a change election.

Bull the Dog (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:05 AM)

Wow, Hillary really kicked butt last night.
She was sharp as a tack, and Obama was flat as a rug.
I was kind of surprised by the way he choked on some of the questions.
I mean, it's obvious he's been getting preferential treatment from the press.
But, I didn't realize just HOW bad it was until he was asked about Ayers, and he simply couldn't come up with any other answer besides "Clinton did it, so it's okay..."
MAN! Who would have expected that from Barack Obama, the great orator of our time? He was stifled, stymied, and tongue tied.
I'll tell you one thing, if he gets the nomination and does this against John McCain, Barack will get his clocked cleaned in November.
I think we better take another look-see at Hillary and seriously consider whether she might be a better representative for our party in the general election.

Former Obama Supporter (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:07 AM)

As an Obama follower, I strongly condemn ABC for not following other medias that provided Senator Obama couch and pillows during debates, and for not offering him softballs to put his "change" signature for audience.

Don, PA (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:07 AM)

If the assumption is that Obama looked disgusted the entire time and that led to a poor performance, I'll point out that the public watching this debacle were disgusted, moreso from the multitude of comments over at ABC. Democratic voters, certainly Republicans were chuckling in glee, but Democrtic voters were disgusted right along with him. Disgust was the authentic reaction that in itself made Obama seem genuine.

Darren White (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:11 AM)

I keep reading about "readiness", that maybe Obama is not "ready" for the tough questions and pressure of the general election and the presidency and that last night's debate illustrated that point. People just aren't getting it. The reason Obama may not seem "ready" is because he is NOT GOING to conduct out country's business in the same corrupt way that it has been done in the past. If that is your standard of comparison, that you are absolutely right, he is not "ready" and never will be and to that I say THANK GOD.

Lisa, IA (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:12 AM)

Best debate so far. Finally, someone asking Obama questions that expose him for what he is.

Greg Olsoner, Ridge Falls, Washington (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:12 AM)

Most of the questions were against Obama, but as usualy, he elegance belittled Hillary's negativism.

On conservative radio, here in Colorado Springs--68% of the people believe Obama won the debate.

Poor Hillary, without a home run (and the moderators were trying desparately to give it to her) she is toast.

I liked win they asked if Obama could win and she said, "YES, YES, YES...I think he can win!!" It sounded . . .well, use your imagaination.

Hillary will soon be grasping at Obamas coat-tails.

Andress (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:16 AM)

Come on Pennsylvania...finish this thing.

I want the integrity that Obama clings to and that only he and Mc Cain will bring to this process.

I have faith - despite my critical thinking skills - that Pennsylvania will come out on the side of Obama.

Obama '08

Jay, The Batcave (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:16 AM)

We watched the debate with much interest even though we and many of our friends/relatives have nearly decided agiast voting for any of the canidates.. We are so tired of voting "against" instead of "for". We think it was time that someone expected Obama to take the hard questions as Hilary has had to do all along..It didn't make us want to vote for either one.But,if we do vote, it will be for Hilary..Not that she is likable or warm.. but because she is tough and has taken what the media, and Bill, has dished out through the years.. Guess a lot of Americans can't deal with an intelligent, strong woman who has earned her place..like her or not..

EBK Rice Lake WI (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:16 AM)

Did anyone read the "Huffington Post" and the story of Hillary Clinton's "SCREW EM" remark? Howard Wolfson was on MSNBC this morning when it was brought up and said it was 'ABSOLUTELY FALSE". At least ABC could have had a moderator that wasn't backing either candidate. It might have been a little more fair.

Boy, first Hillary says Obama doesn't meet the "Commander in Chief" test, says he can't win, says he in "unelectable". Then turns around and "denounces" what she says. What is wrong with these Clintons?????

Maggie, VT (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:17 AM)

Never mind my empty fridge
Never mind Iraq
Never mind my empty wallet
Never mind Iraq
Never mind my empty gas tank
Never mind Iraq
Never mind the USA's piss poor standing in the world
Never mind Iraq
Never mind our infrastructure crumbling
Never mind Iraq
Never mind education taking a back seat
Never mind Iraq
We do know now Senator Obama's stance on flag lapel pins
Jesus wept.

Sherri, Charleston WV (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:27 AM)

Lets stop the BS and call this debate what it really was- a hit job on Obama. 3 against one. Gibson, so obivious a Republican, George S. former Bill Clinton press secretary and poor little mis-quoted, mis-understood Hillary. Republicans want Hillary to win for a reason-McCain wins and more of the same old lying, double-talk that we have had for the last 8 years!

Ed Jackson Scranton, PA (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:28 AM)

I can just imagine what the commentators would be saying if Obama had raised his voice and gotten really nasty. He got in quite a few zingers but didn't lose his cool. The comment about Bill's pardons, and the comment about Hillary's pastor praising Rev. Wright, and his comeback about her baking cookies were all major put-downs but in a restrained manner. But the main point he made over and over was that there are many really important issues that should be discussed. This debate failed miserably on that score. (and your NBC poll said Obama won with 79%!!)

Carol, Reno, Nevada (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:29 AM)

I didn't know watching a debate could make you dumber, but that seemed to be the intent of ABC last night. The only loser last night was ABC News for underestimating the intelligence of the American people. No more George on Sunday for me (no more Russert either, he patented that garbage)

Dean, Pomona, CA (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:30 AM)

I think PA voters got screwed by ABC last night. Spending 52 minutes on tabloid accusations did nothing to serve the candidates or the viewers. I support Obama and agree it was not his best performance but one thing that stood out is the restraint he used with Hillary when anyone else would have decked her.

The Clintons definitely have baggage that has been, and will continue to be rummaged through but Obama has not done the rummaging. True to his word, and probably at his own expense, he is taking the high road in this campaign.

Regarding his perceived problems, I think he calmly made his point that in a professional and public life you encounter all kinds of people and deal with them in various ways. Voters are judging him on his own merit and the results are becoming clear. Obama is different and I believe he will get the chance to prove it.

AP from IL (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:30 AM)

I'm so glad to have Obama answered everything the foolish moderators tried to swing .. Really hillary has no place of favor still after the debate. Obama is and will forever go above her.
the ones that have problem are the ones that have not still believe that he is electable even after hillary re-confirmed her long time fears of telling the truth of her supperior.

father (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:31 AM)

Just say for the sake of discussion that the ABC line of questioning was appropriate. Why was Hillary not asked about Mark Penn and the Columbian trade issues? This is a huge issue for working class Americans across this country. Her constant denouncement of NAFTA does not coincide with her or her campaing's actions. This hyprocracy speaks much more about what she will do as President, but our media does not seem to care. Fortunately, I believe that the American people do.

Emily, Linville, NC (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:33 AM)

Hillary did better than in the last 2 debates, but she did a 360 degree turn around on diplomacy. She has said in her speeches that would not talk to enemy Nations unless they move toward Democracy and even cast slures at Senator Obama when he said it is necessary to practice diplomacy with all Countries; Last night she claimed she would talk to everyone and spread diplomacy far and wide. Hillary spent way to much time on blaming Obama for what someone he 'knew' said and he gave her a pass on Hillary's husband and campaign manager lobbying for the Columbian Trade Deal. I would have like her to answer how she could not have known about this, when your husband deposits $800,000 in your bank account you are going to know where it came from; and when your campaign manager takes time off to go to Columbia you know about that too. This is an issue that should have been addressed because NAFTA and other Trade Bills have had a huge negative backlash for American workers.

shirley, san jose, ca (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:33 AM)

This was kinda unreal. They slammed Obama on past issues, even brought up NEW issues, and when he was done defending himself, they would say, "Im sorry, the time is a little unbalanced, Senator Clinton, would you like to respond to that?" No mention of Mark Penn, no mention of Nafta, nothing... That was uncomfortable to watch, and I think the American people are smart enough to understand what went on last night... That being said, I think Obama held his own... My love hate relationship with politics continues...

Daniel, San Diego CA (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:33 AM)

Last nights debate, confirmed for me, undecided voter, that Clinton is the better choice. She showed she has plans, not just rhetoric. Obama stumbled on the issues, and didn't provide anything concrete when it came to actual practical plans. Especially on the area of economy repair- Something that is a priopity to us all at this point.

Elocin M. (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:36 AM)

Allow me to misquote someone smarter:

"The only big question they forgot to ask was about Obama's bowling score."

Paul, NJ (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 1:55 PM)

Fed up in America:

The media is biased towards Obama. They let hm off easily, give the hard questions to Clinton, don;t cover his screw ups or outrageous statements as they should (i.e. "typical white woman", "bitter blue collar Americans", etc. I wasn't even aware of his friendships with his radical anti-American buddies until it was brought up in lst nights debate and I can GUARANTEE if Tim Russert had been the moderator it never would have and he would have hammered away at Clinton all night.

Just like in the lead up to the war. The media cowered and shivered in the coner as the witherd fist of the White House shook and did not report the facts or ask the tough questions which wre right in front of them. They were a disgrace and cowards. They were as complicet as Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld and all of the other clowns in the administration.

I've noticed none of my 3 comments have been posted. COWARDS!

Tony C. (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 1:59 PM)

The one thing I can defiantely say about last night's debate was that ABC lost. And they lost hard. The decline in respect for that station has been mentioned no less than 5 times in my hearing today and I doubt they will do what is necessary to repair the damage. It's just a shame that most media outlets, in my opinion, won't take the cue and resurrect their actual journalism departments.

Such a shame.

John Doe, The Peanut Gallery (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 2:11 PM)

So Hillary has come forward as a communist. "The GOP should apologize and not run anyone in this election"! Let's see...Stalin - no, Mao - no, Hugo Chavez - maybe, Kim Jong Il - that's it! The idea is to have discourse, debate, and selection through an election; even if you don't like the other side.

For someone who claims to be such an American she is sure acting like she expects the party bosses to 'annoint her'. Maybe they're just annoyed by her instead. Obama is the Dem's future - select him and let him run against McCain. The US will be okay either way.

Tired of Hillary's deal (Sent Thursday, April 17, 2008 2:11 PM)

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