Hillary will win by 15.  She is ahead in the national gallup poll.  The honeymoon for Obama is over.  His condescending remarks and his associations with radicals are very scary to the american people.  Smart democrats are realizing this guy will never beat a war hero

If you can add Guam to your chart in the upper right corner, you can add Puerto Rico.  Get with it.

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The question for Democratic superdelegates is: “Do we want the ‘Clinton Three- Ring Circus’ back on the White House lawn?”

Hillary’s 2008 presidential campaign has always been about the Clintons’ own self-interests.  Hillary has deliberately tried to undermine Obama’s electability in the general election, knowing that could be disastrous for the Democrats in November.  She has engaged in what can be described as the ‘kamikaze’ strategy - (‘I’ll destroy Obama before I’ll let him win!’)  The Clintons, as a pair, as a two-fer, have an inherently self-destructive personality.
Hillary started her campaign believing she was headed for a coronation; a sense of entitlement that screamed “I deserve to be president.”  For all her claims of experience, her presidential campaign has been an unmitigated failure.  And when things have gone wrong, often as a result of the Clintons’ own doing, staff and surrogates have been thrown under the bus.  
Hillary’s chronic problem is how she is viewed by the majority of voters; her ratings for honesty, favorability and trustworthiness are in a steady decline.  A recent AP poll finds that a “clear majority.voters now say Obama has the better chance of defeating” John McCain.  It may be that more Democrats are voting ‘against’ Hillary --- than are voting ‘for’ Obama.
Her campaign has given us insight into what a Hillary Presidency would be like: half-truths, outright lies, demonizing of opponents, an endless psychodrama and a president, who when politically wounded, would whine and wallow in self-pity of victimhood.  Her repugnant presidential campaign, which is headed for imminent defeat, is the second major disaster over which Hillary has presided, ‘Hillarycare’ being the first.

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I wish Obama would put up an ad about HRCs back and forth support for NAFTA-I can't believe anyone who studies her and her background thourougly would consider voting for her. The supers are on the move and it is a one way street.
Obama 08

Stragne analysis Mr. Todd.  If there are 9% undecided, as your poll indicates, and 1% vote for someone else.... that leaves 8%.  Even if the undecideds break for Clinton at 60/40, that is still a 5/3 split of the 8%.  Tha'd give Clinton 53 and Obama 45.  But, some part of the undecideds must be outside the T.  So,I'd say the race stands at 52 Clinton, 46 Obama....a 6 point game.  And tightening, and your poll was taken at the height of the post-Debate dip for Obama.  And he's outspending her this weekend.  So, wouldn't you predict more like 51 / 48?  That's my guess.  And even if she wins by 8 or 9, that still means he did as well in PA's closed primary as he did in Ohio

Pennsylvania is a done deal for Hillary.

I'm intrigued about two things. First, Indiana. I think Indiana will follow Penn's lead, particulaly after Obama's weak showing at the debate.  I like that money isn't necessarily winning the White House, and it shouldn't.

Secondly,  how much damage did Obama do to himself with North Carolina, especially if the press steps up and continues his vetting - this week, on his liberal gun control stance that he claims he doesn't hold.
And if he bows out of the NC debate challenge from Hillary, he will look like a weeny who can't take it, so much the better for Iran if Obama is our President.

...Hillary Clinton leading by 5 pts.  She is done. What
else can she say?

ALSO, looking at this really simply, Obam just needs 45 or 46 percent to call this a 'victory' (single digit loss).  And he's at 43% with 9% undecided.  Isn't he all but certain to get at least 2% more?  And with the race tightening.....?

Hillary needs 65% of the vote in each of the remaining contests - including Pennsylvania - to just pull even with Obama in pledged delegates. Anything less is meaningless for her. And Pennsylvania amounts to approximately 30% of whats left out there in pledged delegates to be won. Claiming victory with a win by 10% this Tuesday would be just spin by her campaign.

This primary is about DELEGATE count. Hillary is behind
in the delegate count, popular vote(68% of voters find her dishonest and untrustworthy), and number of states won. She will not win the nomination with these kind of
numbers.  It is by all accounts over for her. What she
says doesn't matter anymore.

VOTERS DEMAND Obama tell about his relationship with Ayers/Iraqi crook Nadhmi Auchi/Hamas TERRORIST MOUSA ABU MARZOOK and  TERRORIST SYMPATHIZER AIL BAGHDADI  who write articles for Obamas church. It’s important because voters are realizing those relationships, coupled with Obama’s longtime relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright,  is a pattern which Obama seems quite comfortable with people who really, really, really don’t like the United States of America or white people! NOT U.S. PRESIDENTIAL MATERIAL!
Obama shows he is not ready to lead out country!
Quit blaming Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopoulos for Obama's shortcomings. Instead, blame is  Obamas  for failing to grasp how tax penalties on upward mobility hurting the very people he thinks he's going to help
Did someone say inexperience?

During the debate, Obama bungled on tax policy, big time. Period. End of sentence. End of story. To liberals in the media, Get over it.  Obama proved he has a very poor grasp of basic economic principles.
First off, you don't raise taxes during a recession. That's a no-brainer. Second, doubling the capital-gains tax rate will affect Americans up and down the income ladder, not just rich hedge-fund managers. In addition, capital-gains tax cuts are self-financing, and they stimulate jobs and the economy. You want to raise budget revenues and spark economic growth? Cut the cap-gains tax rate. That's what history shows.
Another blunder Obama also proposed uncapping the payroll tax,  his tax hike on payrolls would actually slam middle-income earners,  eliminating that cap Obama will be soaking veteran firemen, cops, teachers, and health-service workers, along with a variety of other occupations.  Fact, in America's largest cities, a firefighter married to a school teacher can earn close to $200,000 filing jointly. So not only will each spouse separately pay more for Social Security and health care under Obama's plan, together they'll also be slammed by Obama's cap-gains tax increase.
This is more than just a failure to understand the Laffer curve. It's another cultural misstep by Obama. I can't help but wonder if the senator knows any cops or firemen. His appeal is to well-educated latte liberals. That remark about middle-income folks having turned to God, faith, and guns because of economic setbacks? Not only was it ill-advised, it illustrates the wide cultural chasm that exists between the candidate and the rest of America.
Obama's economics are bad and his social circle is very limited. This is one of the many reasons why a quarter of the Hillary Democrats are telling pollsters they'll likely move to John McCain in the general election.
Obama's real agenda is far-liberal left. It's an ideology that places income redistribution above economic growth. That's his real message. And it's the same one that sunk Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry. Obama is aligning himself with the Democratic losers. And that will make him a loser as well.

African American communities desperately need capital in order to create new businesses and jobs.  As Obama takes the capital out of capitalism, all those who are not rich will be hurt when the rich folks with capital have less of it -- after tax -- to invest in those new businesses and new jobs. That's exactly why wealth-redistribution plans always backfire. Robbing Peter to pay Paul is a surefire economic loser. So is putting government in charge of the economy, which is what Mr. Obama is proselytizing.
This marks the third mistake for the Illinois senator. Not only does he not understand economics; not only is he set apart from middle-class values and beliefs; he apparently hasn't read much history either. Did someone say inexperience?

It doesn't matter how she does in Pennsylvania. The race is over.  Any gains, popular-vote or delegates that she wins in Pa. will be erased in two weks in North Carolina and Indiana.  There is no way for her to win the nomination, period.

Obama knew that the worst stretch of the campaign would be the six weeks before Pennsylvania.  This nightmare stretch is now coming to an end.

Obama has solid leads in Oregon, South Dakota and Montana, which will negate any deficiencies in Kentucky and West Virginia.  The net result will be that he will maintain his delegate lead at the end of the primary season at the same level he has now.

The rest of the story is that the networks want to keep up the drama, so their pundits on the payroll can keep working.  This race was long over after Obama's massive win streak in February and March. What an intelligent and skilled strategy!  Clinton never learned how to use the internet.  McCain is still trying to learn how to turn on his computer!

It is a sad commentary that somehow bowlers and hunters in rural Pennsylvania get a voice in determining who leads the most powerful nation on Earth.  Bring back literacy tests for the right to vote! (Yes, I know this is elitist!)

Obama outspent Hillary by 4-1 in PA, and is going to lose big. How does he have "momentum" again?

Whoop-de-doo!!!  If Clinton doesn't get a huge victory, she can't make up the ground she needs.  Obama victory. End of story.

How in the world does Obama lose to such a fractured and divisive candidate like Hillary Clinton? I guess there are just not enough elitists in Pennsylvania to support an Obama win.

CLICK The Video Link below ; Hillary is wrong as well as her cabinet , this is why Obama can Beat the republicans and Hillary cannot , because the Republicans will use this against her and the dems , Obama can use this against the Republicans , to rally support , the Clintons cannot !!!!

http://www.bercasio.com/movies/dems-wmd-before-iraq.wmv

Barack Obama was right with his analogy ,
They all were wrong , so why should they, " The Clintons " , have another shot at the Highest Office in the Land ??  

Here in Central Pa, Obama's whistle stop train tour went off with great success under a full moon and warm breezes. Seeing the diverse crowd in front of Harrisburg's Capitol was inspirational. The Obama name which was thought to be a disadvantage because it rhymed with Osama was turned to good advantage by the "Obama Mamas". Obama reported that the crowd in Philly numbered 35,000. I don't know the count in "the burg" but it was thousands.  Having said that, I think the bowlers and gun owners Chuck mentions above will probably be energized to go to the polls and vote for Hillary rather than stay home.  Obama Mama  

why is everyone not remembering Obama was down by 15-20% just a few weeks ago? I know he has TV commercials on his side, but people are only swayed so much by dramatic music and campaign stills. IF he loses in double-digits, that is a HUGE moral victory for his campaign. he has one over many people who most thought he had no chance at swaying.

Sure she will win PA, you have helped her tremendously by showing your bias for her.  All the bitter crap and no talk about Colombia or Mark Penn or Bill's shady dealings.  I'm shocked at your so-called professional journalists.  I realized this weekend, I've only turned MSNBC on twice and for five minutes each time.  Believe me, I've been a loyal viewer since 1997 - no more!!!!  I expect fairness from NBC.

As long as Clinton continues to play on the fears and deep-seeded, quietly hidden, prejudices of middle and low income white voters then she will continue to win narrowly in states like PA, OH, WV, etc. The problem is that history clearly shows that just because a candidate can win in the primary does not mean that they can win against the Republican attack machine in the general. Trust the young people on this one! They are turning out in droves to support Obama and with their fresh, open-minded and racial free influence we can take the country back from corporate special interests. Vote Obama to beat the Republicans!

Clinton needs at least a 10% win to have a big impact.

Did I read correctly that populations are being analyzed by if they bowl? Gun owners I can understand. That deals with 2nd ammendment rights, but bowlers? If Obama's bad bowling is something people actually take into consideration when voting then America may have bigger problems than previously thought. Hopefully this is something the media thought would be fun to analyze and not a serious indicator.

Are you serious? Is MSNBC a news organization? Trying to figure out how "undecided BOWLERS" will break? Good Grief!

Clinton needs a HUGE victory in PA to make up for the huge victories that Obama has had in other states. Anything close is a ends the game because there aren't enough chances left for Clinton.

Both my kids are democrats in their 20's.  No campaign has called them, they only have cell phones. How are these polls considering the young people without land lines?  They are a substantial number of voters.
We have polls on bowlers?  This has gone beyond bizarre?  Did they poll basketball players and fans?
How about Soccer players and fans?  Soccermoms?
Football?  Since the steelers owner Rooney endorsed Obama, he is an icon in western PA.  How about a poll in western PA on football?
Ahhh...it's too late, guess we will find out Tuesday!
If it's not Hillary with 68% of the vote, then it is over.  Chuck Todd, as well as other "number experts", said she HAS to win every state by that much to win with the popular vote.  Anything other than that, she will only get the nomination by SOOPERS taking it away from the voters, and handing it to her!

Thank you for the analysis of the UNDECIDED vote. This is the first time I have seen that on Penn.

When reporting the poll numbers, can you start emphasizing the actual potential spread prominently (aka the Keith number).

I'm tired of seeing one candidate or the other win by more than the based on polls with large number of undecided, then the news organization reporting a "shocker". This is manufactured news.

The joke is that the Clintons are trying to sell a 6% lead in the outcome as a 'landslide' ! After they were expected to win 20% or more.

They are already whining about how much money the Obama campaign is spending is PA. Does Clinton not WANT to spend more money  - or CAN she not spend more money ?

Who is managing his (her) campaign better ?

I would be delighted if Obama would be behind by only by 6% - Clinton should pack up and leave then (like THAT will happen).

If Obama would win by one vote, I will sponsor an office party and take out the family for a huge, nice dinner !!!

COnsidering the fact that she had a double-digit lead in PA about a month ago, shows the inroads Obama has made.  Yes, I think the "bitter, cling" statements may have cost him some votes, however, Obama was never expected to win the state in the first place. Of course, Wolfson is trying to spin the fact that outspending Clinton 3 to 1 on television ads across PA is sending the message that Obama has to win this state which is really not the critical once the delegates allocated proportionally.  Chuck and others are right, HRC is the one who has to win and win big, and perhaps even then, it is not a real game changer. It may give her some needed momentum to go into May 6. The media will make 10pts sound like the whole game has been reversed, so they derive the ratings. I would wager that if Obama were the one behind Clinton, the outcry for him to leave the race would have been deafening.  Nobody can beat the Clinton Machine.  I guess 30,000 PA voters attending an Obama rally is not newsworthy versus 2000 to 3000 filling a small room for HRC eh?  MSNBC, you're slip is definitely showing.

Obama '08

Remember OHIO and TEXAS.

I am hoping and praying that Hillary will win and win big.  The Obama train that is a train to where we do not want to go needs to be stopped.  

               Hillary 2008

I just don't get all the FUSSING!

Who has the key to that freaking money printing press!

I understand the focus on popular vote since this is the ONLY chance Hillary has to get the nomination ... (i.e. getting close in the popular vote and trying to convince the 60 something percent of superdelegates to go her way); but don't you think it is worth reminding people that the primary process is won by obtaining the greatest number of DELEGATES, not popular vote.  As such, given the likely outcome in PA, Montana, WV, Indiana etc., there is almost nothing Clinton can do to win this race legitimately.  Given that you (Chuck) are the "Numbers Guy," (and good at it), I think it is only fair that whenever you are asked anything about these issues, that you remind people of that.  We have gotten so focussed on flag pins, Bosnia, Wright etc. that we have forgotten that IF THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED, Clinton's chances are frankly, slim to none.  Regardless of whom you support, this is a real point that people must be reminded of.

Well...............
At least we avoided that whole "utopian concept" of taking half the Jackass and half the elephant, then putting them together, like some kind of "catdog", while tossing them a hukka and then calling it a day.
About this we can breath a sigh of relief.

I do not understand what is going on in this primary and what people are thinking.

Obama is the most racist figure on the  national political stage since George Wallace.

He has attended a church where hatred of whites was taught from the pulpit:  the only logical reason for his not becoming affiliated with another church is that he BELIEVES THE SAME THINGS HE WAS HEARING.

There have been statements from his wife and from Obama (typical white people) that show they do not appreciate whites.

He has never stated what  CHANGE would look like if he is President but I hasten to point out that only a few people in the total population would benefit from his being President.

I believe his intent is to level the playing field (as he perceives thata field) and he would put the United States into economic crisis and chaos which would take many years to resolve.

He is attempting a revolution.  

Re all polls and the latest in Pa: how do the pollsters reach people who have only cell phones? If that group islargely excluded, the polls would have a major distortion. If they are somehow at least sampled and the sampole used to adjust the regular phone users, then we have more solid results. Can the impressive Chuck Todd enlighten us on polling procedure?

No - she does not get this kind of positive press.  She was up TWENTY points two weeks ago.  That she'll only win by five points is no cause for celebration or victory.  It should be (and will be by superdels) a failure on her part and a victory for Barack Obama

The local television news, this morning, Sunday April 20th, here in Pittsburgh Pa., has Clinton with a 1% point lead over Senator Obama. He is closing. The poll you are referring to is 2 days late. Even the Clinton camp told it's supporters not to expect more thana 3 to 4 point win, yesterday. Additonally, land line polls do not take into consideration the younger cell phone using voter supporting Obama.

Obama's new health care, and news paper endorsement ads, have yet to be factored in.  Catch-up First read.

Obama '08

-----CLINTON SLEEZE FATIGUE WILL INVIGORATE GOP, DISPIRIT DEMOCRATS AND SINK DEMOCRATIC TICKET-----

-----OBAMA / WEBB TO WIN-----

It is possible that Senator Clinton is the best candidate.  However, even though many may like the policies that Senator Clinton proposes, they should also consider her record, just as Senator Clinton insists.
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The last Clinton Administration, when faced with the fact that protection rackets where assaulting, torturing and murdering people with poison and radiation, chose to avoid its responsibilities to incarcerate the criminals and to protect the citizenry.
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Instead, they made a deal with the criminal gang stalker protection rackets to leave them alone and to consequently abandon the citizenry.
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Do we want a President who sells out the citizenry for votes?
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Do we want a President who sends a "crime does pay" message to society?
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Would you vote for a President who signed nonaggression deals with the KKKlan or the Nazi party? Gangs that torture with poison and radiation are much like the KKKlan and Nazi Party.
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We do not need a sellout President. We need a principled leader President.
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If you are one of the few who do not know what the above refers to, do a web search for “gang stalking” to see the tip of the dirtberg.  Please do it before you decide to reply to my post. Here let me make it easy for you: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22gang+stalking%22.
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Pennsylvania really doesn't matter anyomere.  Hillary needed a double digit win there to hold off Obama.  Even her strongest supporters are starting to see the writing on the wall.  She may win PA  by a small margin but she will not pick up much more delagates than Obama.  Then they move onto North Carolina where she is going to be slaughtered and Indiana where she is losing by 5 points.  Even James Carville came out and said no matter what happens in PA she needs to find a way to win Indiana or the Democratic Party needs to start rallying behind Barack Obama.  I agree.  It's time to bring the party together and get this country back on track.

Democrats in '08

If she does net 200,000 votes and picks up a handful of delegates (based on an assumed 10 point margin), she still faces insurmountable deficits on both accounts.  How is that a victory?  Is not anything less than a 15-20 point blowout a loss?  Is a mere 5 point, or less, margin anything less than a crushing, game ending defeat?

It should be, but probably not for this self-serving, unrealistic campaign.

I just turned on Meet the Press and Tim asked Gerin, (Clintons's new head honcho), the identical question about not winning the nomination "legitimately" Gerin's only answer is "let the process play out." No legitimate answer.

LOL Bowler demographic? ROFL

The David Brook's New Times article has about the same results, but also shows that in the key groups in Pennsylvania she is leading by big double numbers. Obama only leads in eastern Pennsylvania, which includes Philadelhia and the only reason he leads there is because of the AA voteIf it was not for that vote he would be wiped out. Democratic voters and the super delegates need to understand that Obama can not win in the fall. He will lose all of the south and the border states, all of the normal red states, michg for sure because his lawyers held up the revote, and one or all of Ohio and Pennsylvania. The Brook's article states that he is behind in these states and only tied in New Jersey, Minnesota and Wisc.

I've liked how Chuck Todd has broken down the numbers all campaign long.  Probably why MSNBC has the most accurate and complete delegate count, far better than CNN.  A tight race that will be interesting to watch Tuesday night.  I just hope the people of PA get smart and vote for Obama so we can change the political gridlock in Washington.

Go Obama!

Why does the press refuse to ever mention in such polls that they DO NOT include young voters - 99% of whom do not have a land line to be called on?  

You are failing to poll a complete section of the population and yet this fact is never even discussed.

And yet you wonder why you're polls are so off?

How has the Clinton campaign and the subservient block of the media managed to convey that a small single-digit win for Senator Clinton would be a HUGE victory?  Most likely through professional B.S. and the need to suckle at the ratings teet.  They might want to remember that Americans over 12 also watch the news.  

PA hunters, bowlers, gun owners and beer drinkers, get off the couch on Tuesday and give your vote to Hillary or take the chance that OB might be your president..

Obama LIED about gun control:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9722.html

If this primary is to be decided by bowlers, whom I assume you are referring to because of Obama's bowling (where by the way he did not bowl an entire game, but a few frames) or based on owning a gun, rather than who is going to lead us out of Iraq in a careful manner and has the best plan for the economy, then this is a sad, sad state of affairs.
Anyone who has listened to Clinton, especially over the past two weeks with her negativity, should understand that this is how she will also do business in the White House. This is what she means by fighting.  She fights for herself.  She certainly did not fight for jobs for New York State.  She blasts anyone who disagrees with her.  This is why her health care initiative failed in 1993 and the American people have had to deal with this health care crisis for another 15 years.  
It is sad to think that people have forgotten her past and history which was nothing but drama and scandal.

Oh brother.  So the future of the Democratic party might now rest with bowlers and gun owners?

I think now is a good time for Sunday morning prayers.

Clinton will not win. The undecideds are like that company who you interviewed with that hasn't gotten back to you yet. As more and more time goes by it is pretty clear that the undecides will not choose Clinton. Obama will win Pennsylvania.

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