First thoughts: Hillary's race to lose
Posted: Monday, April 21, 2008 9:12 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Hillary’s race to lose: A new MSNBC/McClatchy/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette poll suggests things are staying fairly competitive in Pennsylvania. This survey of 625 likely Dem primary voters was conducted Thursday and Friday, and it shows Clinton leading Obama by five points, 48%-43%. So what happens on Tuesday? Looking inside the poll's demographics, the highest undecided totals are in the more rural parts of the state -- and that's not good news for Obama. In the so-called "T" region of the state (almost everything between Philly and Pittsburgh), Clinton leads 51%-37% with 11% undecided; this is one of the few demographic groups sporting double-digit undecided. Two other interesting crosstabs with high undecideds also signal the potential that the undecided vote will break for Clinton. Among bowlers (24% of the electorate) and gun owners (38% of the electorate), Clinton leads big among these cultural conservatives: She's up 54%-33% among bowlers and 53%-28% among gun owners. So while the poll shows Clinton with a narrow -- and arguably narrowing -- lead, the clues inside the numbers indicate this is her race to lose and that her lead could expand.
*** Will it be five points or more? Should tomorrow’s primary end up as close as this poll suggests (i.e., five points or less), then this means many of these undecided potential Clinton voters decided to stay home. If they come to the polls, she could see her lead climb to more than five points. And this seems to be why Obama has gone negative in the past couple of days: to keep these undecideds away. He might have also sharpened his tone a bit to beat back the growing post-debate perception that he was looking weak. After all, the undecided voter in Pennsylvania looks to be the type of voter that wants to see a strong walkin' and talkin' candidate. So here’s the game on Tuesday -- it’s not if Clinton will win, but how big will her victory be. She'd like to net more than 200,000 in the popular vote, which she would only get with both a large turnout (approximately 2 million total) and a 10-point-plus victory.
*** Practice makes perfect: For all the recycled Clinton-Obama bickering this past weekend -- over health care, who’s being more negative, and who’s saying nice things about Republicans or using GOP talking points -- Democrats should be encouraged by what they're seeing in terms of the general election, at least when it comes to the blocking and tackling of politics. Their rapid response teams of both these campaigns are well oiled and battle tested. And as Newsweek reported, Team Obama is expanding its rapid response squad for the general. But the same can’t be said for team McCain, which isn’t quite sure whether its opponent will be Obama or Clinton and which hasn’t engaged in all-out political fight since Florida back in January.
*** Biting the hand that feeds you? The McCain campaign is known for its love of the media, but there may be no more vicious campaign to deal with when it thinks its media lovers have scorned them. Just check out McCain adviser Mark Salter’s reaction to yesterday’s Washington Post piece looking at McCain’s temper. “In sum, this is one of the more shoddy examples of journalism I've ever encountered,” he said. “But for the infamous NYT story, I'd say it was the worst smear job on McCain I'd ever seen." This is the McCain campaign’s plan to combat what is going to be a much more hostile press than they ever imagined. The question is whether the campaign will grow thicker skin or whether the relationship between McCain and the media will simply deteriorate. One other thing: The pushback on the story was bizarre for another reason. It may have been a story that was somewhat ignored in the runup to Pennsylvania and, frankly, the premise wasn't all that new. In fact, McCain has become very adept at answering this question. But the Salter response was so brutal, it almost dares folks to find stories on McCain's temper -- something we're guessing most of the press corps wasn't all that interested in pursuing.
*** Another week, another McCain tour: Speaking of McCain, he begins his Time for Action Tour from Selma, AL, where he gives a speech this morning at the Edmund Pettus Bridge -- one of the landmarks of the civil-rights movement -- and then he will visit other parts of the state. “The beaten and dispersed army on Edmund Pettus Bridge had conquered something after all - the indifference of too many Americans to their courageous struggle for the basic rights of American citizenship,” McCain will say, according to excerpts released by his campaign. “In America all things are possible, even a civilization as great as the one envisioned by Dr. King and John Lewis. But we are practical people, and most of us are honest, and we know we have a ways to go. This week, I will be traveling to places in America that aren't enjoying the prosperity many other parts of America enjoy, but where people are walking a long, hard road to make sure that their children will know the opportunities that other American children possess.” Those places include Youngstown, OH (where he will be Tuesday), Prestonsburg, KY (Wednesday), and New Orleans (Thursday). By the way, McCain’s tour this week is a good counter program to whoever loses Pennsylvania -- meaning he'll be talking to either white working-class voters that Obama will need or poor blacks that Clinton will need.
*** The woman in red? The official March fundraising numbers are out. They are basically meaningless numbers -- since much of the money has already been spent -- but going into April, Obama had more than $40 million in cash to spend in the primary, after raising approx. $41 million. As for Clinton, her March fundraising report has just gone online, but we don't yet know the primary/general split of the $20 million she raised or the primary/general split of the $31 million in cash on hand. Yet at least $22 million of that $31 million is designated for the general, leaving Clinton less than $10 million to spend at the end of March. By the way, when you factor in Clinton's $10 million+ debt, she was technically operating in the red at the end of March.
*** The delegate count: Over the weekend, Clinton picked up the backing of Ohio congressman Tim Ryan, and Obama got the support of the Nebraska Democratic Party chairman. In keeping in contact with the campaigns, we also adjusted Obama's number up one more, as another DNC member is backing him. The superdelegate count now is: Clinton 262, Obama 237. Obama leads by 141 in the overall count: 1,654-1,513. He also leads by 166 in the pledged delegate count: 1,417-1,251.
*** On the trail: The day before the Pennsylvania primary, Clinton holds rallies in Scranton, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, and Philadelphia; Obama attends a town hall in McKeesport, holds a rally in Pittsburgh, and makes a pre-taped appearance on Comedy Central’s Daily Show; and Cindy McCain co-hosts the View. Also, Bill Clinton joins his wife during her stops in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, and Michelle Obama joins her husband in McKeesport and Pittsburgh.
Countdown to Pennsylvania: 1 day
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 15 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 197 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 274 days
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