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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



More expectations games

Posted: Monday, April 21, 2008 12:54 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: , ,

From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The Clinton campaign tried to set expectations and pushed back against the conventional wisdom that Clinton needs a decisive victory in Pennsylvania tomorrow.

Pennsylvania is not about finishing close, Communications Director Howard Wolfson said. “It’s about winning.”

Wolfson added that Obama is doing everything he can to win the race, outspending Clinton three to one (overall: $11.2 million to $4.8 million).

“He has gone sharply negative, and he is doing this to knock us out of the race,” Wolfson said. “And if he does not win it will again raise very serious questions among voters and superdelegates … that he can win big swing states like Pennsylvania.” He added, “If Sen. Obama can’t win a big swing state with that enormous spending advantage, just what will it take for him to win a large swing state?”

On some analysts having said Clinton needs as much as a 20-point victory and that if Obama finishes within five or six points, there will be no appreciable difference among superdelegates, top aide Geoff Garin went further.

“Those numbers are ridiculous,” Garin said. “Sen. Obama made a conscious decision to try and change the stakes here. They’re not spending this money simply to try and improve the Pennsylvania economy.” They “put their brand at stake to try and deliver this knock out blow.”

‘Entirely positive’
Aides posited that Clinton’s closing Pennsylvania ad, “Kitchen,” is “entirely positive,” certainly more positive than Obama’s most recent ads, they said -- even though the ad echoes the language Clinton used over the weekend to knock Obama for complaining about taking tough questions.

“Harry Truman said it best, if you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen,” an announcer says in the ad. “Who do you think has what it takes?”

Garin drew this comparison: “When you hear Sen. Obama say he’s the best candidate to change America, do you think that’s a negative ad?”

Clinton campaign’s McCain contradiction?
The campaign disputed that it is contradicting itself when it comes to McCain versus Bush. Clinton had said McCain will bring a lifetime of experience (as will she) but Obama will bring a speech he made in 2002. That seemingly elevated McCain above Obama in who’s more qualified to be president, that McCain had passed the Commander in Chief test, but Sen. Obama had not (as they continue to say). But over the weekend, when Obama said McCain would be a better president than Bush, the Clinton campaign pushed back hard against that.

“There’s a difference in the context of how voters will look at a candidate in an election and how the person will govern,” Wolfson said.

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Comments

Yeh, Hillary,

You appreciate having our back--so you can stick a knife in it.

That's been your political stategy all along.

We don't trust you.

Vote Obama
Hillary is a LIAR:

She is not trust worthy.

She will LIE to you.

She has Lied to you.

She Will LIE to you, again.

She will laugh.
Go Barack!
Come PA BaROCK the vote!!
Yes WE Can!!!
clinton is evil - GET OUT OF THIS CAMPAIGN, AND THEN WHY DONT YOU JUST GET OUT OF OUR BEAUTIFUL COUNTRY.

anyone but Billary in '08
The spin coming out of the Clinton campaign is so predictable. Howard Wolfson is full of it and he knows it. Hillary was expected to win PA by 20 pts or more. If she fails to win by such a margin tomorrow, then her campaign is a complete failure. It certainly doesn't help that her campaign is in debt.
This race is over May 6th if Obama sweeps Indy and NC.  Othewise it's over June 3rd when the Superdelegates go to Obama.

All of this back and forth arguing is doing little more than hurting the party and will make it harder to bring it back together before the convention.

The writing has been on the wall for over a month now.
Obama just said "If you are elbowed enough, eventually you will elbow back". His critics have said he must be tough.  When you turn on the T.V. and see Obama you watch and listen. If you see Hillary or John McCain you tune out... He is the celebrity. They are the also rans. Obama Mama
While she may win the PA primary tomorrow, she will not make up any significant ground in the delegate count or popular vote. Anything less than a double-digit win by Clinton will in fact be a win for Obama.

http://www.politivine.com
Spin little hamsters, spin, spin, spin! Do you like your hamster wheels? Hillary is losing, and the voters are more likely to rally around Obama as a Democratic nominee than around Hillary (remind me again - WHO is the most polarizing figure in American politics right now? Oh, yeah - its Hillary).

As for the outspending, that is just indicative of the fact that Obama has donations to spend - unlike Hillary. That means more people are actively engaged in his policies. Its not a $$ issue - its a likeability issue.

Its fine is she wants to stay in the race; Mitt Romney also donated to his campaign while he was on the way down. But to play these ugly Washington/Karl Rove-esque politics is just disgusting. Its a disgrace to the Clinton legacy.
Spend, spend, spend,,,,,Obama will be the nominee.  Hillary did not have a game plan in the middle of the race and lost it....pure and simple
The "Kitchen" ad is a good one and I'm glad she went back to Scranton to close out the busy six weeks.
With only minor policy differences between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, the extended Democratic Primary race has devolved into nasty personal attacks, hurting our chances of winning in November.  The candidates' negatives are up. Polls show the Democrats' advantages are disappearing against John McCain's continuation of Bush-Cheney fear mongering and failed economic principles.  Petty arguments between the candidates are attempting to distract Pennsylvania voters from our real problems. Wednesday's debate in Philadelphia was a perfect example, with at least half the debate spent bickering over old news and verbal gaffes before debating anything Pennsylvanians actually care about.  John McCain was the debate's big winner.  We have a chance this Tuesday to stop John McCain's free ride to the White House.  We need to unite behind the frontrunner and refuse to allow this contest to go all the way to the convention.  We can send a strong message that we will not be distracted.  Not this time!  Vote for Barack Obama on April 22nd.
This is just down right stupid. They tell the Clintontards that poop smells like perfume. And the Tards spread it on themselves. kinda reminds me of the Planters Peanut Comercial where the girl dabs the peanut on her and all the guys go crazy for her. Hillary must dab in planters peanuts to be supported by so many Nuts.Please people stop drinking her bath water.
Always parsing words, tearing people down, moving the goal posts, not doing what she says, untrustworthy. ENOUGH

This pathetic excuse for woman is so selfish and hungry for power I bet people can smell it on her when she walks in the door.

Shame on you MSN for giving her free press. That is why she is complaining about Obama. Her campaign is broke. The gall of this woman asking me for $25 when she had made over $109 million + another $22 million in 2007. Pay for your own ads and while you are at it pleases pay the workers which worked for you in OH
There was another segment this weekend about an umemployed couple who campaigned for her in OH and she still has not paid them. The dollar amount $650.00.

Go away.........crawl back under your rock

Obama 2008  Win PA
Yeahhh, I pray that Hillary win with good advantage over Obama...

HEY GUYS,  
WHO IS WORSE LIAR, HILLARY OR OBAMA?
stop repeating what you hear on the new,  it doesn’t make u look good, it tell me that you are just reflecting idea of other person, be yourself and defend what you think with facts.

Hillary a liar?  Well, do you forget that Obama denied four times on TV that his advisor talked with Canada government?  OBAMA DENIED IT 4 TIMES,
OBAMA DENIED THAT HIS PASTOR SADI WHAT HE SAID,
OBAMA DENIED THAT HE WAS IN THE CHURCH
THAT HE KNEW ABOUT THOSE REMARKS
OBAMA DINIED THAT HE KNEW ABOUT IT, BUT
ALL WHAT HE SAID ABOUT IT LATER ON SHOW HOW LIER, MANIPULATIVE HE IS.

Don’t talk to me about lying, Obama is as liar as many other,   what Clinton said about Bosnia was wrong, wrong wrong, but she did not tried to fix it, she apologized and that THAT IS WHAT OBAMA CANT DO, TO RECOGNIZE HIS MISTAKE AND SAID, I AM SORRY.

SO, who is more liar, who should I trust the most?  The one who refute and change the subject or the one who recognize and said “I am sorry”?   Give me a brake, and don’t be stupid.
Entirely positive? You've got to be kidding me!

I think the Clinton campaign has been doing negative campaigning so long that they've forgotten what a positive ad is about.  Just compare Bill and Al's ads in 92 to the ones now, if you need a refresher on what a positive ad is about.
CHECK THIS ARTICLE OUT!!! THIS IS YOUR NEXT PRESIDENT? ARE YOU KIDDING????

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/21/clintons-primary-campaign-begins-april-in-debt/#comments
SPIN, SPIN, SPIN.  WE ARE USE TO THIS SPIN.  IF ONLY BY ONE VOTE FROM DOUBLE DIGITS 20% lead. can't catch up like that.  One delegate at a time.

UNFORTUNATELY THE CLINTONS ARE RIPPING THE DNC APART, SO IT'S AT ALL COSTS!

The Clinton's just don't understand that their strategy blooding up Sen. Obama hoping that he will loose against John McCain so she can run the following term will not work.  She will only incurr the horrific win at all cost stragety raft from the majority of Americans if the RNC wins.  We will thank her for the LOSS should it occur.

Meaning we will vote for anyone but Sen. Clinton should her and Pres. Clinton's plan work.  

She and Pres. Clinton do not seem to understand that should the RNC win we will get more of the same when it could have been prevented.  

Meaning more suffering economically and more lives lost and more of our heroes significantly injured for life.

Many just don't think they she and Bill get this.  

For sure they can count on not being rewarded!
Women we are the Majority!!! Vote for Senator Clinton and have the Majority of the population of this whole nation represented in the presidency!
We do not need another testosterone hot head in the office, the arrogant or the PARTY PICK!
They are shoving Obama down our throats while visiously attacking the best candidate ever!
Let the party poops know we will not vote for their pick now or in the GE!
It is time to join as a solid block, ALL women, and be represented as we should be, do not pass up this chance, you will regret it and so will AMERICA!

Why does Wolf-man Jack always get to define what a win is?  Doesn't anyone in the media have the ability to think for themselves?
what a load of crap.

wolfson, give it up.
Wolfson, what a joke! This guy has been spinning so much, he doesn't know where to turn.  

Expectations, she was up by 26 pts.  So what now?  Anything less than 20 is a loss, so spin away.

The horror it would be to be honest with the American people.  

Garin is a man thrown into a bad situtation, he doesn't even fit in the Clinton equation.  He was very uncomfortable on Sunday.  Although, a few more weeks and he will be just as corrupt.      
Did anyone ask how they were paying for their current ad buys?
That ad also includes a shot of Osama Bin Laden...... real positive.
The Clinton campaign acts as though we are among the Sesame Street viewers whose attention span does not go beyond a few moments. How long ago was it that Bill said Hillary needed to have 'big' wins in Ohio, and Texas? I'll tell you 'First Read', since you refuse to put the Clinton spin into context,those primaries were 7 weeks ago, and she eventually lost Texas. Hillary's campaign is on 'Terminator' mode. I would not be shocked if she drags her broken, disheveled, inept, lying, and beaten campaign across the lawn of the dem convention in Denver, smoke, flames, and all.  

Obama '08
“Harry Truman said it best, if you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen,” an announcer says in the ad. “Who do you think has what it takes?”

------------------------------------------

If it's "entirely positive" then why put that line in the ad?
Hillary hasn't shown she can close the deal either. With her enormous name recognition she should be blowing Obama out of the water, yet we keep seeing close races no matter what state. THAT should also tell the Superdelegates something. If Hillary is the be-all, end-all, then why doesn't it show in her numbers? Obama '08?
Clinton needs to go away.
She is over 10 million in debt

Where is the Clinton v Paul trial????
Garin is ridiculous, although I do feel bad for the guy trying to clean up this mess the Clintons are in.  Obama people have been working so hard here in PA, and I have yet to see anything but some "Hillary" signs on the highway.  If and when he wins tomorrow, it will be a testament to the real nuts and bolts efficiency and committment of his campaign and supporters.  The MSM better hold onto their hats.
VOTE DEMOCRATIC, DOESN'T MATTER IF ITS HILLARY OR BARACK (hopefully Hillary get's the nomination), THERE POLICIES ARE VERY SIMILAR, MCCAIN IS JUST A 3RD BUSH TERM!
when obama came out he asked of this nation to look past our differences and to our common interests,economy war education...etc when we do that we can all prosper. he has never waivered from that stance...hillarious on the other hand has shown so many faces!!!!
for those of you who are too chicken to just admit that you're against obama because he's black,its people like you who are the reason this great nation is looked down and frowned upon....we dont need you!!!!
As reported in Drudge report, Clinton is likely to win by 11 points
Scum.
It's only "negative" if you consider fear-mongering, saber-rattling and pandering to be negative.  And it's obvious that the Clinton campaign considers all of those to be perfectly positive.
here we go again....you guys, for as much as I love you, always give the loudest mega-phone to the Clinton campaign and Wolfson right before the primary, thus allowing them to set their own tone to what the expectations are.....when they move the goal posts, we simply move with them without question. come on MSNBC....step up and state what the real, untainted expectations are....quite honestly I think if it's <5, it's an Obama "win"...if she wins by 5+, it's a hillary win....I think that's an honest way to look at it and even leans towards Hillary in setting the expectations to benifit her. But to think that even if she wins by 1 point, it's a huge blow to Obama, is rediculous. Guys - please - don't allow her campaign to continue manipulating the goal-post right before primaries...this isn't the first time this has been done....call them on it and state your non-partisan messuring tool on "wins" and "losses"...


PLEASE!
(by the way: love your work, First Read!! :-P  )
This primary as turned from a chance and hunger for hope, to bitter sweet garbage..it's slowly but surely heading back to old school politics, and I'm putting the blame on Clinton, even though Obama has contributed to it a bit, it's mostly the Clinton camp, and I still can't understand why. Thing is, I doubt she'd win against McCain because her credibility sucks about now. McCain is having credibility issues because he's simply a man of himself stuck with the republican label. I really think McCain and Obama both are genuine ppl, and as hard as it is to say, seeing that I support Obama, I think McCain would also bring something new to the table. Remember, he's trying to appeal to the republican base, so he has to have something in the game plan to make them happy, but he can reach across party lines, as with Obama..both guys are amazing. I think McCain and Obama should say screw both parties and run on an Independent ticket..they'd kill...
It is difficult to make a decision when listening to all that is said by the various people involved; all of the subterfuge and counter-subterfuge thrown around usually leaves you focused on the last thing you heard and wondering how much that matters.  The trouble is that history has proven so much of it doesn't matter as when they get what they want they have an abundance of more subterfuge to rationalize why they weren't able to do as you thought they promised.  Their character, honesty, sincerity and simply their quality would seem the only real indicators of future performance; if you can't trust them, then don't vote for them.  Based on the history we have seen, I don't want anymore of GWBush policies/programs (McCain) and I don't want more of Washington as usual (Hillary).
Obama is too weak to be elected President. Obama's pastor and wife are anti-American. His friends in High Park are unrepentent domestic terrorists. He whined about the debate...because his media buddies asked questions that were fermenting for weeks. Obama even said McCain would be a better President than Bush. If Obama is the nominee millions of Democrats will listen to at least one thing he says and vote for MCCain.
Please would someone tell Hil Liar Y we don't want her-it is not her time.  PS as a white woman over 50 she would never get my vote and I am a lifelong Dem.
Obama 08
I firmly believed that Sen. McCain would be by far a better President than Mr. Bush and that he's definetely more qualified than Sen. Clinton.  So taking both Candidates praise for McCain, I'd rather have Obama's.  McCain will definetely be an improvement.  However, I see Sen. Cliton's remarks as downgrading the Democratic nominees. Meaning if you don't chose me, then your best option is McCain.  Whereas Obama said even if McCain were to win, we would be better off with him than we'd been with Bush.  Not entirely the same.  
six weeks ago, Clinton had a 20+% point lead in PA

now they're tryong to spin it that if she wins by any percentage at all, it means that Obama is unelectable???

the only thing more frustrating than the Clinton campaign's inventing new metrics for judging who "won" is their continually changing the rules when their previous metrics don't hold


the Clinton campaign is a disaster - she would have easily won the nomination if she hadn't mismanged her own campaign . . . that's a small taste of what a Clinton administration would be like
I expect Hillary to win BIG in PA tomorrow.  

Obama says he would get American back on track.  Where is that train going?   Probably somewhere we don't want to go.

I truly feel that Obama would be extremely bad for American.  I have not and still don't trust the man.
Some choices he has made i. e going to Wright's church for 20+ years, going to the million man march  and his "bitter" comment are just two indicators that Obama is not in the mainstream.  I don't know who his backers are nor what his agenda is.  I think Obama has a secret agenda and we will be appalled when it is revealed.
                 
                    Hillary 2008
Wolfson is a liar or a moron.

This is an accumulative delegate contest. Obama tries for every delegate he can win in every state. That's why he's spending the money he has allocated for Pennsylvania.

On the other hand, he could follow the Clinton strategy (or lack thereof) and only campaign in the states he knows ahead of time he'll win. But come to think of it, isn't that how Clinton dug herself the delegate hole she's currently in? Hmmmm.
THE BRITS HAVE SO MUCH MORE INSIGHT THAN WE DO! GO BRITS! READ THIS ARTICLE! TRUE...TRUE...SO VERY TRUE!!

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/19c88b7c-0f00-11dd-9646-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
One sentence to describe her.  HILLARY CLITON IS A LIAR!
thank you Brian De for the comment, I'm still laughing, I think you summed it up about as well as possible.  keep up the good work,

Obama '08
I love the site, but think you are wasting some bandwidth when you re-post the spin that comes from the campaigns.  (Personally I think the Clinton spin is an order of magnitude more ridiculous).  You just serve as a megaphone for their often non-sensical diatribes.  I would much rather read your analysis.

Otherwise, keep up the good work.
what came out of this weekend was why wasn't propaganda minister, howard"WUF WUF" wolfson on meet the press sparring against david axlerod. talk about a mismatch. the clintons sent out geoff garin like he was a middle reliever eating up some innings for the team. there can only be 3 reasons for this gaffe. howie has a sore arm, i mean sore head from all the bs, he's been throwing, or howie had a birthday clown gig, he couldn't get out of, " maybe ed rendells grand kids", or The history of Hitlers Women was on the history channel and howie never misses anything to about uncle joey and auntie magda.
Gail Dayton, Oh, You will continue to loose jobs and have forclosures in Dayton and Obama will be able to do nothing about it.
She is the one! Obama is a weak puss* and l dont want him as my president. he whines at everything. l need a preseident that can take action and get the job done.
i will ride or die with the devil l know, that settle for lying as* obama. hope people wake up soon to his lying ways.
Am black, and proud of it, so all your sorry abama maniacs, dont go pushing the race card AGAIN!!! Not all blacks are down with obama. he just want handout and honey, go get a life, aint nothing going to get handed out to ya.Peace and get out of the kitchen since u can't stand the heat.


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