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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



More expectations games

Posted: Monday, April 21, 2008 12:54 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The Clinton campaign tried to set expectations and pushed back against the conventional wisdom that Clinton needs a decisive victory in Pennsylvania tomorrow.

Pennsylvania is not about finishing close, Communications Director Howard Wolfson said. “It’s about winning.”

Wolfson added that Obama is doing everything he can to win the race, outspending Clinton three to one (overall: $11.2 million to $4.8 million).

“He has gone sharply negative, and he is doing this to knock us out of the race,” Wolfson said. “And if he does not win it will again raise very serious questions among voters and superdelegates … that he can win big swing states like Pennsylvania.” He added, “If Sen. Obama can’t win a big swing state with that enormous spending advantage, just what will it take for him to win a large swing state?”

On some analysts having said Clinton needs as much as a 20-point victory and that if Obama finishes within five or six points, there will be no appreciable difference among superdelegates, top aide Geoff Garin went further.

“Those numbers are ridiculous,” Garin said. “Sen. Obama made a conscious decision to try and change the stakes here. They’re not spending this money simply to try and improve the Pennsylvania economy.” They “put their brand at stake to try and deliver this knock out blow.”

‘Entirely positive’
Aides posited that Clinton’s closing Pennsylvania ad, “Kitchen,” is “entirely positive,” certainly more positive than Obama’s most recent ads, they said -- even though the ad echoes the language Clinton used over the weekend to knock Obama for complaining about taking tough questions.

“Harry Truman said it best, if you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen,” an announcer says in the ad. “Who do you think has what it takes?”

Garin drew this comparison: “When you hear Sen. Obama say he’s the best candidate to change America, do you think that’s a negative ad?”

Clinton campaign’s McCain contradiction?
The campaign disputed that it is contradicting itself when it comes to McCain versus Bush. Clinton had said McCain will bring a lifetime of experience (as will she) but Obama will bring a speech he made in 2002. That seemingly elevated McCain above Obama in who’s more qualified to be president, that McCain had passed the Commander in Chief test, but Sen. Obama had not (as they continue to say). But over the weekend, when Obama said McCain would be a better president than Bush, the Clinton campaign pushed back hard against that.

“There’s a difference in the context of how voters will look at a candidate in an election and how the person will govern,” Wolfson said.

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Comments

What Democrats NEED to know is,if the Super delegates choose Sen. Clinton will Sen. Obama run as an Independent and,if not,will Clinton? If either one runs Independent the undeniable result is victory for McCain, Karl Rove style by splitting the Democratic Party. Will someone in a position to do it (Media,Campaigners,etc..) PLEASE ask Clinton and Obama to pledge,for the good of our nation, that the loser will NOT run Independent..... WE NEED TO find out NOW!
Wolfson has the nerve to say Senator Obama is going negative? Hillary's campaign has been serving up sleeze from the very beginning. Hillary seems to think she is exempt from being accountable.
latino boy chicago il - Learn proper English!
Clinton keeps spinning so much I am becoming dizzy. Stick with the facts. The one you overlook to conduct character assasination to your democratic opponent and party. Hillary is disgraceful saying that Obama is praising McCain when she did at least 3 times. She also says people know where she stands. I for one don't because Hillary keeps spinning and changing her ideas with the wind. The one thing she stands for is hypocricy.
TO PA VOTERS: We have the opportunity to put this primary season to bed and focus our attention on John McCain. Please vote for Barack Obama so we can win in November.
I would like to see a woman President too. But not Hillary she has been proven corrupt. Please look up 'Clinton vs Paul'for further proof.
Sneator Obama, with us at his back, can finally get us real healthcare reform not the nonsense HMO's we got in the 1990's, re-energize our public schools to once more be the model and the envy of the world and he is the only one with the diplomatic credibility to get us out of Iraq without leaving behind chaos since he opposed our occupaton of Iraq from the beginning.

Together we can change this Country!  Please vote your hopes, not your fears Pennsylvanians!  Bless you regardless of your choice, Yes we can!  Obama '08.
Please change your page 1 headline from Obama Predicts Clinton Victory to a headline that reflects the facts in your article. Try: Obama Predicts Close Race...unless i missed where it says that he said Clinton would win.

Or, also from the article, you could use: Clinton Demographic...Older, Whiter, Less Educated. Hmmm...maybe not.

LOL
If she runs this country's economy like she did her campaign......
The bottom line is:

Is Hillary's very slim chance worth the increased possibility of another four years of Bush version 2.0?


Real Clear Politics had her lead at a steady 16-20 point lead.  Her argument was/is that he would lose support.  Instead he has gained it and the polls now show her winning by less than 10.  If she doesn't win by more then 16 her reason for being in the race is hogwash.  Anything less than 16 points is a Clinton loss.  

Prediction:

HRC: 47%
BHO: 45%

Obama wins.

Hillary whines, says Pennsylvania doesn't count because of Philadelphia

OOOh! I see the stupid Obama gas has been released again into the atmosphere with these posts. The Obama cult members need to all get some psychiatric help in the form of deprogramming. You'll be with all the other mindless,chanting, weak personality people who need to find an identity. It might take years, but you'll probably snap out of it while McCain is still in office.
Dear MSNBC family,

You should investigate this story about Ed Rendell:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXum_-8I1TA
To Go Hillary:

You are so right. It is time for all of us to start thinking about destroying the dark side. I am an Obama supporter and have not always agreed with HRC's campaign strategy but if she drags this to the end and pull's every trick out of the book to get the nomination then I will be right behind her. Saying that you would vote for McCain if your candidate loses is saying that you are a child. The only statement that you would be making is voting for war, tax cuts for the richest 5 percent, overturning Roe vs Wade, the list goes on and on. Grow up people!
The truth is McCain can't help but be a better president than Bush. You could pick a prison inmate at random and they would be less of a sociopath and do less damage to the country and the world than Bush.  I believe the Clinton campaign would say that roses stink if Obama were to say they smelled good. Anything but admit he makes sense sometimes.
What a hypocrit Hillary is dissing Obama for saying that McCain would be better than Bush.  Yet she followed the republican's 11th commandment of not talking ill of fellow republicans when she said that McCain would be ready to be commander in chief while Obama was not.  We need change and Hillary talks a good game but won't deliver.

Go Obama!
I am confused as to why the Clinton campaign is crying about Barack spending more money than them in PA.  Why wouldn't he?  They would be doing the same if they had it. Good grief.  

Diehard Democrat who will vote democratic because we cannot vote in Grandpa McSame.  
Good grief! Get out already.

Has the Clinton campaign noticed how Obama's candidacy has brought in hundreds of thousands of new voters and, as was written today, might be helping switch Pennsylvania to a Republican/swing state into a Democratic state?

There are no concerns about Obama's electability.
I think at this point if Obama manages to keep her under 10 points, then he's held some ground.  PA has always been considered her territory.  Of course, any sort of victory means we're in for another month rough and tough politics.
I mean c'mon...I really would vote for either Dem against McCain, but this can't be her campaign calling him weak/unelectable ("If you can't stand the heat...") and complaining about negative ads AT THE SAME TIME. That's absurdly hypocritical no matter who you support.
NJ

You will never hear about the Peter Paul/Clinton trial from First Read.

They have chosen to ignore it for over a month.

Chris Matthews is obviously running for office in PA or better yet a position in the Clinton Administration if she were to win the nomination and the presidency.
He has now become subjective instead of objective.
Perhaps he is going to team up with the governor

The only show I will watch in Keith Olbermann.  He appears to be the only one who will state the facts.

Race for the White House especially if Morning Joe is on is another joke.  Rachael Maddow on the other hand is objective.  Joe thinks only his opinion counts and when he does not get his way he apparently leaves in a sulk.

We no longer have any good media coverage.

Everyone group is pushing their own agenda
NO TO BO GOT THE IDEA!  
i agreed with you, sadly many women are having so hard time becasue they dont trust themselve...  they have been manipulated for so long that now when they have the opportunity to prove that woemn can do a good job, they are afraid and lets the  media control their decision...  too bad...
Obama wants to tiptoe thru the tulips.  He had one debate where he had tough questions and handled it badly. He is inept.

Obama has raised and spent millions and yet he can't get a "real advantage." Obama is a willow tree flowing and flapping in the wind.  Hillary is like a mighty oak that can withstand the wind.

WOW!! Hillary is going into the lions den tonight on Countdown.  That takes courage.  Obermann has been a Hillary basher.  Hillary, show Obermann what you a made of.

Obama will take you on a train ride to NOWHERE.

                    Hillary 2008

I am tired of the Clinton spin, telling me "what this is about".

I hope Obama will trail only by 6-7% .. if not it was worth to try to fight Billary in a state where she owns the establishment (with exception to a brave few)

Whatever this will be ... OBAMA'08
Garin would be more convincing if he didn't look so pained when he talks about the Clinton campaign.  On "Meet the Press" yesterday, he couldn't even look Russert or Axelrod in the eye.  It continues to amaze me that the Clinton sycophants come out of the woodwork close to any primary and say things like "a win is a win" or "Obama spent x amount of dollars and he's still going to lose by 3 or 4%" -- you were leading by @0 percentage points a couple of weeks ago!!!  Go Obama!!!!!!!!!!!


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