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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



An Obama improvement since Ohio?

Posted: Tuesday, April 22, 2008 9:20 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
NBC News has projected Clinton to win Pennsylvania, but if Obama keeps it closer than the margin in Ohio, there are some signs in the exit polling that would show why.

Obama fared better in the largest voting bloc by age, the 50-64 group. In Ohio, that group made up 32% of the electorate, and Clinton won it 60%-37%. This time, the group made up 36% of the electorate, and Clinton won it by a slighter margin, 56%-44%.

The electorate in Pennsylvania is older (second oldest in the country behind Florida). The +65 category was 23% of the vote vs. just 14% in Ohio. But Obama did better with this group in Pennsylvania (63%-37% for Clinton) than in Ohio (72%-26% for Clinton).

Education was another factor. Among those without a college degree, Clinton won 58%-42%, similar to her victory in Ohio, 58%-40%, but more voters in Pennsylvania reported having a college degree (47% vs. 32% in Ohio). And Obama won those voters 51%-49%, a similar margin to Ohio (51%-47%).

Obama also scraped around the margins with every racial demographic, but not enough to pull off the victory. Clinton won white women 66%-34% (47% of the electorate); she won that group 67%-31% in Ohio (44% of the electorate). With the overall white vote, Clinton won it 64%-34% in Ohio and 62%-38% in Pennsylvania. Among white men, Clinton won 58%-39% in Ohio and 56%-44% in Pennsylvania.

Among black voters (13% of the electorate; was 18% in Ohio), Obama won by similar margins in Pennsylvania (89%-11%) as in Ohio (87%-13%).

*** UPDATE *** With the recalibrated exit polls, we've updated the numbers above.

Another point, As Marc Ambinder points out, Clinton improved her margins with Catholics, which contributed to her victory. In Ohio, where Catholics were 23% of all voters, she got 63%-36%. In Pennsylvania, where they comprised 37% of the vote, she got a higher percentage, 69%-31%.

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Comments

no he can't. lol
not even with millions of dollars.
he'll never win in november
This is a joke! Weeks ago the pundits were saying that she had to win by double digits. NOW, that she's looking at a 6pt win, "a win is a win". What nonsense!

Hillary has no chance of winning. None. Zero. Nadda.

The press just wants this to go on.
Bravo Senator Obama!

You are running your campaign the RIGHT way, and you will be REWARDED! :)

Obama '08
Amazing how MSNBC's Matthews/Olbermann (AKA Obama Campaign Media Headquarters) are spinning the results.  Stick to the facts boys.  Your whining can be heard all the way to Minnesota.  
posted on Billary's blog site:

If you were running against yourself
I would write myself in!!!!!

by Mickey Mouse at 4/22/2008 9:17:48 PM

[Reply]  [Report Abuse]

 Hey,right now it's at 6%. There's a long way to go, but if that holds...
You know-the discussion of RACE is great. But maybe
too highminded, lately. Maybe there should be some
discussion of what Jon Stewart called the 'SWING
BIGOT' vote in re: OH and PA. Sad. Aside from women, did a lot of voters actually vote for HER? Or for BILL? One PA guy said he was voting for her because Bill would always be there. (Still can't do it on her own for that guy.)
Just a thought.
People, watch Buchanan and scarbourogh.  They are workin for McCain tonight!
I see the return numbers so far sticking right around 6%.

If the number stays that close, what do you do if you're Team Clinton?

You've lobbed Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers, "Bitter", "Elitism" and Stupidopoulos at Senator Obama and if it's only 6% after 10% at Ohio and after opening Pennsylvania with a 20% lead what else do you have?

To borrow from an Obama surrogate who was interviewed earlier in the evening, "If not Pennsylvania, then where?"
Sick of MSNBC slant (Sent Tuesday, April 22, 2008 9:30 PM)

Sick, just watch Pat and Joe. They are working hard for Hillary.
Amazing how MSNBC's Matthews/Olbermann (AKA Obama Campaign Media Headquarters) are spinning the results.  Stick to the facts boys.  Your whining can be heard all the way to Minnesota.  
Sick of MSNBC slant (Sent Tuesday, April 22, 2008 9:30 PM)

---------------------------------------------------

"MSNBC Slant"

HA!

C'mon, Senator Clinton has Pat Puke-anan and Joe Scab-borough in her corner.  What slant?
IF Clinton somehow becomes the nominee - all of those young people who are so supportive of Obama will simply drop out and walk away; guaranteed.  We Dems will then lose to McCain.
David Gregory, Pat Buchanan and Joe Scarborough are so biased in favor of Clinton it's obnoxious.  In particular, Gregory is unqualified to moderate this discussion.  Then you have Tim Russert making an illogical case for the Clintons, and doesn't even acknowledge how ridiculous the argument is.  Come on, Tim, you look like a puppy dog for the Clintons.  
Thank God for Chris Matthews, Keith Olberman, Howard Fineman and Rachel Maddow.  
Ok let's take a look at things when a republiacan is in office the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. With McCain in office we will be looking at 4 more years of Bushism. Now lets talk Bill Clinton is the only president in history to balance the budget it took the republicans less than 90 days to spend a surplus of 3 trillion dollars so republican isnt the way to go. Hillary has her issues and Obama has his but either one of them will be better than McCain. I have issues with both canidates Hillary's statement about being under fire in Bosnia if you were under fire you would definitely remember. I know I do being a veteren of Grenada, Panama, and the first gulf war. I have a problem with Obama always sidestepping the question if he thinks African Americans deserve compensation for slavery. If a canidate can't answer a yes or no question with a yes or no answer when they are asked for a yes or no answer that shows me they can't take direction and shouldn't be in office. I have seen wishy washy polotics kill friends because people couldn't make a decision or were afraid to make a decision.  Who ever we the people of the United States of America vote for we all need to support which ever Democrat wins if we want to see change and stop seeing our children, friends, and family sent home in body bags from Iraq.
Let's see... Joe and Pat kind of for Hillary.  Everyone else (except sometimes chuck Todd is on the Obama bandwagon.  Am I suprised by the MSNBC spin.  No.  Clinton is doing better in certain areas too.  For example, Hillary is doing better among men than she did in Ohio.  Cover both sides MSNBC!  It won't hurt a bit.
Congratulations Senator Obama.
Money well spent!

GoBama!
I'm watching the live coverage, and I didn't realize that independents were not allowed to vote in this primary. why hasn't this been talked about? A large chunk of the discussion against Obama has been that if he can't beat Hillary in the Pennsylvania then he won't fair well in the general election. What would have happened if independents could vote in pennsylvania? they can certainly vote in the general election, and throughout the primaries he has gotten the larger portions of independents. I'd like to hear more on this from the media because it's a point that hasn't been raised very much.
Obama is a comer, there is no denying it. He is as likely to win Pa. in November as Hillary. He will have plenty of time improve his numbers, and do it.

I am so proud of you Senator Obama. Thank you Dear Lord, for our candidate.

GOBAMA - WE LOVE YOU
I think the pundits have to show balance - they tend to talk up an argument where the story is.

The story now is a clinton comeback and what it would take post P.A. for her to beat obama who is the front runner. They did the same thing when  clinton was in front and obama was behind...
Point Blank:
More people voted for Clinton than Obama.  I dont care the % breakdown, more people voted for her.   Great Obama won Texas del. count, but there too more people voted for Clinton!

Thats what matters people!
Stop spinning this!
Russert and Gregory are unbiased folks.  You are just so used to the Obama supporters at MSNBC you don't know neutral reporting when it hits you in the face.  Stop whining.  You're starting to look like your candidate.
Thank God for Chris Matthews and Keith Olberman! They keep the discussion real, and frankly, couldn't one of you guys just tazer Joe and David to get them off the air? Pat is good for a good laugh now and then, and seems like a decent character, even though he's wrong on everything. I 'm SORELY disappointed with PA voters, but not surprised. Their wives do the voting for them, and those dames picked Hillary. I'm a woman, a feminist, over 50 and white, even wealthy. I can't stand that woman! I met a woman in Taos last week, over 70, who was completely in tune with me, 20 years younger, on Obama in every way. I KNOW he can win this country for all of us! COME ON INDIANA! My 82 year old dad, from Lafayette, would be so proud to have Indiana put a stop to the Clinton insanity!! GO OBAMA 08 or if you need to, 2012!
Since a lot of the people who had issues with voting for a Black are the same people who did not care to vote for a woman then who in the heck did they vote for?
There is not surprise if Sen. Clinton had not won in her home state that would be very embrassing. This win as the Media knows does not change the equasion.  But it's good for Media FODDER.

Sen. Obama said all along that he was making every effort to keep the race close.  Happy to see the improvement in all ethic groups as the media likes to divide Americans along racial lines, these stats clearly show that is not the case.

As long as Sen. Obama wins in accordance with the DNC long standing rules and the Superdelegates don't overturn the same rules it's been playing by for more than 50 years no problem. The media is pushing this effort along with Sen. Clinton and her supporters.

However, if the Super Delegates overturn the long standing delegates metric, the  DNC can count on millions either sitting out the November election or voting for Sen. McCain.

Gov Rendell can get on TV and talk about how sure he is that if the DNC overturns Sen. Obama's nomination on rules made up by the Clintons that the voters will fall in line don't believe it.  It won't happen.

Sen. McCain senses that the DNC plans to overturn the nomination and give it to Sen. Clinton that's why he's attempting to reach the Black Community.  Smart move.

If the DNC overturns Sen. Obama's nomination many of us will then listen to Sen. McCain because he will have proven that he wants to work with the millions that will not support the Clinton nomination.

Should the DNC overturn Sen. Obama's nomination, Sen. Clinton will definitely loose the war because she will loose key voting blocks that the DNC needs to win in November.  Should this happen the DNC will LOOSE in November and all the media talk and opinions from Sen. Clinton and her supporters saying it won't happen won't change it.  It will DESTROY the party and drive millions to vote with the RNC of just stay HOME. More than likely we will vote with the RNC to be sure that Sen Clinton does not win the office of the President if the DNC overturns Sen. Obama's nomination.  He's earned it and we expect that the DNC will honor it's rules as it has in the past.

We will not reward someone who is not TRUSTWORTHY an dhas use divicivise tactics to overturn an honest nomination.

This nomination process is embrassing and the DNC should have stood up and followed it's own rules instead they chose to let the media drive this nomination all the way to the bank and with adding multiple new election shows just to fan this flame.    


Should the DNC overturn the DNC Standard rules by which other candidates were judged based on some silly argument made by the media and Sen. Clinton, they can be assured that the DNC will loose the support of millions.  We don't mind the media blitz and the back and forth just as long as the race is fair.

If not, since Sen. McCain is reaching out, we are open to hearing Sen. McCain because he will have proven that his Straight Talk has some value.  

http://twocanpete.blogspot.com/
Hillary threw the kitchen sink now she's going throw the bathtub and the living room furniture! Oh no, Obama!
Gregg Ward -

You are absolutely correct! My children, politically active young adult voters will not support HRC...

Nor will I...

Yes, We Can...  Obama '08
Of all the people on MSNBC, I respect Rachel Maddow and Chuck Todd the most. I love Keith Olberman for his courage to call it like it is, and I like chris matthews too, but they are sort of pro-obama (no where near the extent that pat and Joe are anti obama, but then again they are the republicans so if they are trashin obama it just says that at least the Republicans have figured out who the dem nominee is!).

Anyway my point is no one can call Chuck Todd or Rachel Maddow anything but impartial and fair. If you do then you just don't care to hear anything but what comes out of your mouth.
Congrats to Senator Obama!
Vote 08
c-mon people she won and was outspent 3 or 4 to 1...get in the game he lost he can not win in the fall because there are more white working americans
that would have changed churchs.
What happened to the theory that she had to win by double digit numbers?  And wasn't she expected to win anyway? Far as I am concerned, Obama did great considering the kind of state he was campaigning in.  The odds were clearly stacked against him, and remember, she was suppose to blow him out of the water in Penn.
Yeah, Scabro' and Buchanan a bit transparant for Hill and Bill... Hmm, can't think why?
Not only will the young people walk millions more will as well.  The Clintons and the media can hold endless conservations for making the case for her to Overturn Sen. Obama's nomination but they will proceed in Destroying the Democratic Party.  It's unfortunate that those in Charge of the DNC cannot see that the Media is willing to Derail this train all for MEDIA FODDER.

Millions across the country have discussed this issue and will be ready to pull our support from the DNC should the DNC make such a move.  

By doing so they will seal the fate of the DEMS come November.  We don't mind a fair race to the nomination, but the media and the Clintons for some reason for the first time in history want to overturn Sen. Obama's nomination using NEW RULES that are being made up as they go along and the DNC is keeping silent.  We certainly hope this is not the case and they will surprise us and stick to the rules.

Perhaps those in the Media responsible for this ridiclous game playing and the Clinton should go on BIll Mahr and give him the New Rules, that's more appropriate.
Obama will win... when is the question! He's a great guy and the only reason he hasn't won it all yet is because he's not willing to hit hillary hard aside the head. It's odd too because the media says that's what he needs to do but if that happens they'll jump all over him for being negative. Hillary can do whatever needed to win though... do we see a double standard?
All I want to know is, when can she acknowledge that there's no way that she can win the nomination.  Ok.  He didn't beat her up in her home state where she grew up! ....And?!?  When it all comes down to it, she lags in all possible categories: delegates, contests won, popular vote and most importantly, she's $10M in debt with $9M on hand.  Honestly, I think it's cruel to her for her deluded mind to continue at this juncture.  She can't close the pledged delegate gap and if she did somehow manage to get the popular vote (not happening), all anyone has to say to shut her down...."this is a delegate race, not popular votes."  The same guy she threw under the bus as her excuse for not being able to deliver on her promise to create the jobs in NY, Al Gore, won the popular vote and did not become POTUS, therefore, her own argument about electibility is shot.  She should take her win here, admit that she's out of money, admit that the odds are insurmountable and get out before she completes her destruction of the democratic party.
Scarborough and Buchanan are not biased toward Clinton...they are biased toward McCain.  Unlike Democratic voters (of which I am one), they have realized that Obama will be the nominee and are doing everything they can to knock him.
How low can the bar go for Hillary?  The woman is just not decent and NOT worthy of being president of this great country.  EVERY single time they move the bar. They - she and her husband- are just disgusting.
Despite having the worst month of his campaign, he made up ground in every demographic except Catholics.  How can this not be seen as a positive?  In other news, McCain isn't even pulling 75%.  His base is not stable.
Spin Spin Spin

Hillary's surrogate just stated she won PA despite Senator Obama throwing the 'Kitchen-Sink' at her in the final days of the campaign!

Give me a break lady.

Looking forward to seeing the final results both popular & delegates & then seeing more movement by Supers over the next few days.

To all thinking of donating to Hillary's doomed campaign - your better off hanging on to your money until the general if you really want to defeat the Republicans & reclaim this country for Americans again.

All Hillary wants to do is lift as much dough from you all as quickly as she can to try & cover her multi-million dollar campaign debt she has been generating without having to dip in to her own pockets. Its your choice to make but I'm just asking you to think for 10 seconds.

tic
tic
tic
tic
tic
tic
tic
tic
tic
tic

America needs to do everything possible to reclaim America for Americans. It will take more than a Democrat in the Whitehouse & a Democratic Congress to get it done.

There's my 2 cents worth. Good Luck with Your Decision.

We need a Uniter - Obama 2008!
I find it amazing that more people do not see that the Clintons will stoop to anything they can to 'steal' the nomination.  It is becoming eeriely clear that the white male (just watch all the anchors)is realizing that Obama has the nomination of the democratic party---and they are pulling out all the stops to assist Hillary!  America still has a long way to go.  
Hillary Clinton quitter.

Look at how Clinton acted when she lost in Mississippi – she HID – she had Maggie Williams send an e-mail congratulating Obama.  When Clinton’s back is against the wall – she gets mean, not tough.


What did she do when her health care proposal failed in the WHITE HOUSE—NOTHING for the next seven years except perform ceremonial functions. That is not a fighter that's a quitter.

I have to try a second post. I'm telling you right now that if Chris Matthews says one more time that because I have a Master's degree I am not a regular person, or that African Americans are not regularly people, or that those with a progressive agenda are not regular people, I will no longer watch your network.  It's judgemental and offensive and, frankly, not very well informed.
MSNBC continues to be absolutely biased toward Barack Hussein Obama in this campaign.  I really don't understand it.  

Folks, I am going to vote for McCain (and I am a registered Dem).  I guess the important thing for me is that when this election started over a year ago I thought MSNBC's coverage was the cream of the crop.  Now, I realize its just a joke.

Hillary is winning fairly substantially and MSNBC posts "Obama closes the gap since Ohio"!  WTF
Well:

It seems RACISM is alive and well in PA.  As governor Rendell sais himself, I don't think PA is ready to wote for a black man.  Said another way, PA will not vote for Obama because he's black.  Not good for a sitting governor.  
Guns and God, that's all it boils down to. Only change is Ron Paul!
It amazes me how they  make projections.  Obama is surprisingly close atm.  The spread is not at all bad.  I like the way CNN is calling it.  She did not win by the landslide I expected so, go Obama.
To the Obamaites who are trying to spin Obama's loss into a moral victory, Barack outspent Hillary 3:1 *AND* still managed to lose.  Outspending your opponent 3:1 and losing is a very bad omen for Nov'2008.
If the voters of this country DO NOT DEMAND A PAPER TRAIL FOR THE VOTING MACHINES...USE PAPER BALLOTS and make SURE YOUR VOTE IS COUNTED>...in my opinion HILLARY KNOWS how to manipulate those paperless touch screen machines... VERY VERY INACCURATE AND NOT CERTIFIABLE....no paper trails allow for miscounts... COME ON AMERICANS....get your right to vote back and to have it be counted FAIRLY....  she smirks...and is one nasty woman in my opinion
With practically the whole PA Democratic machine behind her and having a 20 point lead initially, what happened?  With all this backing why was she not able to do better?  
How much of a factor is the Limbaugh strategy of "operation chaos"?  He encouraged his listeners to switch party affliations, so they could vote for Hillary Clinton to keep the fight going between the two Dem candidates.
HEY HILLARY ...THE VOTING MACHINES CHOSE NOT YOUR SUPPORTERS....GET RID OF THE PREPROGRAMMED VOTING MACHINES   BRING BACK PAPER BALLOTS.... DAY ONE HELL... OUR RIGHT TO VOTE AND HAVE IT BE COUNTED FAIRLY HAS JUST BEEN DAMAGED AGAIN
Obama - Texas, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania:

Can't close the deal in the big states.
A real ass pounding tonight!!!


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