An Obama improvement since Ohio?
Posted: Tuesday, April 22, 2008 9:20 PM by Domenico Montanaro
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
NBC News has projected Clinton to win Pennsylvania, but if Obama keeps it closer than the margin in Ohio, there are some signs in the exit polling that would show why.
Obama fared better in the largest voting bloc by age, the 50-64 group. In Ohio, that group made up 32% of the electorate, and Clinton won it 60%-37%. This time, the group made up 36% of the electorate, and Clinton won it by a slighter margin, 56%-44%.
The electorate in Pennsylvania is older (second oldest in the country behind Florida). The +65 category was 23% of the vote vs. just 14% in Ohio. But Obama did better with this group in Pennsylvania (63%-37% for Clinton) than in Ohio (72%-26% for Clinton).
Education was another factor. Among those without a college degree, Clinton won 58%-42%, similar to her victory in Ohio, 58%-40%, but more voters in Pennsylvania reported having a college degree (47% vs. 32% in Ohio). And Obama won those voters 51%-49%, a similar margin to Ohio (51%-47%).
Obama also scraped around the margins with every racial demographic, but not enough to pull off the victory. Clinton won white women 66%-34% (47% of the electorate); she won that group 67%-31% in Ohio (44% of the electorate). With the overall white vote, Clinton won it 64%-34% in Ohio and 62%-38% in Pennsylvania. Among white men, Clinton won 58%-39% in Ohio and 56%-44% in Pennsylvania.
Among black voters (13% of the electorate; was 18% in Ohio), Obama won by similar margins in Pennsylvania (89%-11%) as in Ohio (87%-13%).
*** UPDATE *** With the recalibrated exit polls, we've updated the numbers above.
Another point, As Marc Ambinder points out, Clinton improved her margins with Catholics, which contributed to her victory. In Ohio, where Catholics were 23% of all voters, she got 63%-36%. In Pennsylvania, where they comprised 37% of the vote, she got a higher percentage, 69%-31%.
