Exit polls: A look ahead

Posted: Tuesday, April 22, 2008 10:22 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From MSNBC’s Norah O’Donnell and Adam Verdugo
With Hillary Clinton winning tonight, we wanted to look ahead to the fall election and gauge how much this contentious Democratic primary race has divided the party.

Overall, 71% say they would be satisfied if Clinton wins the nomination; 64% said they would be satisfied with Obama. These satisfaction levels are very similar to what we saw in Ohio.

Also, as we saw in previous states, Clinton supporters would be more unhappy with Obama as their nominee than Obama supporters would be if Clinton became party's choice. Six out of ten Clinton's voters say they would not be satisfied with him. Only about half the Obama voters would be dissatisfied with her as the nominee.

The poll specifically asked Clinton and Obama voters what they would do if their preferred candidate did not win the nomination. They were faced with the following choice: support the other Democrat, vote for John McCain, or stay home. First, only 53% of Clinton voters say they would vote for Obama. A quarter of her supporters would cross party lines and vote for John McCain and 18% would stay home.

As for Obama voters, 69% say they would vote for Hillary Clinton if she ends up the nominee against McCain; 16% would vote for McCain and 13% would stay home.

And what about those new voters? Remember some 300,000 new voters in Pennsylvania today? Well, 29% said they would not vote for Hillary Clinton in November.

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Comments

Birds of a feather flock together... Obviously, Clinton attracts hard edged people that cannot put the good of the party before themselves.

Joan (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 6:52 AM)

If HILLARY does not win the nomination, I will vote for mcain!!!! She deserves to win because she is smarter and in touch with the blue collar workers and can handle the REPUBLICANS, with no problem...candy

candy laird lumberton texas (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 7:21 AM)

Most Blacks vote Democratno matter who is running so that doesn't change. Women would support Clinton. The elderly will support Clinton. She has been in the white house before and witnessed how it runs. She has lots more experience and she is trustworthy. She hjas the best shot at winning in Novemeber. If whites defect to McCain as the blacks have defected to obama then McCain wins in November - this is what the republicans want.

Don't elect pushovers (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 7:26 AM)

I am an Obama supporter, and I WILL NOT stay home if HRC wins this nomination. I WILL write Obama's name on the ballot. I WILL NEVER vote for Clinton.

Poachee dover de (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 7:36 AM)

Clinton supporters have a higher percentage saying they won't vote for Obama because of her negative campaigning. They are made up of people who started out supporting her and take heed of her attacks on Obama moreso than the people than most.

That number will break in half overnight when (if) Clinton tells them to vote for Obama when he gets the nomination.

Smarter (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 8:05 AM)

Every Obama supporter that I know...family, friends, business...will vote for McCain if HRC is even the VP candidate. She is dreadful, full of lies, lacks integrity, is NOT a leader, and couldn't bring 2 strings together. She epitomizes divisiveness and lies.

CraigB (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 8:31 AM)

Don't count too heavily on the Obama voters switching over to Hilary, vote for McCain no, stay home, yes. The only way she can get the nomination is to steal it. To warp the rules and use back room tactics, if any super delegate thinks that will be good for the party, they better start reassessing now.

Kim Maine (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 8:33 AM)

I've thought long and hard about this and I just can't bring myself to support Hillary Clinton in November. Add me to the 13% who will be staying home if she wins the nomination. Sadly, this would be the first time in 40 years that I've sat out on a Presidential election.

Jo, Chicago (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 8:34 AM)

In the exit polls last night you glossed right through the % of Clinton voters that think race matters. I believe it was 73%. Would you touch on that again? I'm originally from western PA and I think it matters more than you think there. Please look at this again.

Amber Cheney, Bemidji, MN (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 8:38 AM)

Never down but now it is seen. No other candidate would of been able to sustain the issues Mrs. Clinton has endure during this campaign. McCain would had a heart attack. Obama just would not know how to handle the pressure.
Yesterday's primary is indicative of what is to come. I surely hope so. For America's sake. And the future of our children/grandchildren.

mark (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 8:38 AM)

This does not bode well for the Democrats in the fall if these numbers stay consistant. I hope one will "rally the troops" as it were for the other come the fall or even in August at the convention. I am hoping that it doesn't come to a floor vote; it'd make for good TV, but I'd like not to see that.

S.B. Stein E.B. NJ (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 8:42 AM)

Whichever candidate is NOT the nominee will ask their supporters to help them support the next Democratic President -- and they will comply unless they weren't worth having as supporters to begin with. This is nothing but temporary blowhard daring that will go away the minute a nominee is picked. It's a non-issue.

The media has invented the 'torn apart party' slogan to keep the ratings up. The Democratic Party is stronger than that. We will prevail against the Republican Party.

Margaret, Columbus, Ohio (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 8:44 AM)

A Comeback? I hardly think so. This was HER Home State! The entire political machinery was behind her, including the governor! Get Real. She won't catch Obama in delegates. I just hope the supers put this thing to rest. Frankly, it's turning me off to politics. Hillary won't be happy 'till she has squashed every sliver of hope anyone has had for a Whitehouse that represents the average person.

LaffinCrow (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 8:48 AM)

The vitriol of the race baiting Bill Clinton and double speak (er, misstatements), gutter tactic wielding Hillary Clinton have set the tone for their support.

Randy E (SC) (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 8:59 AM)

The people should definatly be the ones picking the presidential candidate. So let the primaries play out, and let the chips fall where they may. I'm sure all Democrats will back the one that is victorious. We can analize this to death, but the people will have their say in the end.

JoAnn, Moundsville, WV (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 8:59 AM)

I am honestly yet to meet a large number of Obama supporters who will vote for hilary...she practiczally destroyed our candidate with half truths and spinning...my conscience would not allow me to vote for a liar.......this is a tough one...i would rather not vote if she were the nominee...I tried hard to listen to her victory speech...and honestly when she begun her tale of a soldier/survivor...the same old nagging question came back...is this a true story????
Integrity is really important...and her integrity only shows when she wins....at all costs....
this is a tough one.....
another thin..were you guys surprised at the pae she borrowed from Obama...she really is begginning to copy his speeches, despite the fact that words are empty...
ps: The guy with the red boxing gloves behind her was real funny though....i can see why the media would love this to continue....to the convention...it is a real real soap opera...

nmt (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:07 AM)

Why Clinton Democrat's won't vote for Obama
1. No matter how you pronouce it his middle name is Musslim.
2.His wife's college papers.
3.His wife's speech about being proud to be an american for the first time.
4.He and his wife's attidute.
5.His minister and how he clings to him yet.
6.His inter actions with know terrorist.
7.Now start to connect the dots, who and what will he bring to the White House if he wins !!!!!!!
8 He is good at giving speeches, that doesn't run a country.
9.It has nothing to do with RACE!!!!!!!!!!!

Judy Zona, Sandy Creek,NY (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:08 AM)

Of course HRC knows how the white house runs, if memory serves correct, she had work to do back then while Slick Willy was chasing interns. I believe this was when she pushed NAFTA through...Go Obama

Renee, Pville, PA (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:08 AM)

This African American will not vote democratic, if the nomination is stolen from Obama!!!!!!!!.

Be Real, Clintonians

Wendy "Hussein" (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:09 AM)

This is just ridiculous. She had the whole political machine, it just delays things a couple of weeks. I for one am a white female over 50 and would never vote for Clinton. I just hope Obama isn't forced to take her and her baggage on as VP.
Obama08
PS-let the racists stay home.

CJ KCMO (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:13 AM)

aaaaahhhh Ms Smooth Talker (say anything, do anything to win) Hillary-C..Please Tell US..What's your Stance on Cigars?

jn, Atlanta, Ga (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:31 AM)

I am not surprised the HRC won in Pa. She only needed simple little lies, volatile stirring comments and implied associations to get the haters to switch parties to prevent Mr. Obama from narrowing the gap. I live in Pa and if you think it wasn't racial I'm sure Hillary can sell you the Brooklyn Bridge at a very high interest rate.

D Pa. (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:39 AM)

STOP all the one sided new report lets see some diversity and hear the truth about what the American people think Report this WE DO NOT WANT BILL CLINTON BACK IN THE WHITE HOUSE UNATTENDED HE IS A TRAMP if you were to tell the truth Bill & Hillary are both liar stop saying she mis spoke (SHE LIED)

Mary, Pittsburgh (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:42 AM)

Dpes the democratic party want to be a party of the uneducated racist whites? Appears to be the case. I am a 63 year old white woman who would never vote for Clinton. If Obama is not on the ticket in the fall I will vote for McCain.

Janice P. (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:43 AM)

I am a Clinton supporter. If Obama gets the nomination, I will not vote in the general election at all. Under no circumstances will I vote for Obama. And, if that happens, it will be the first time in my adult life that I have boycotted a presidential election. My first one was '76. I've never voted for a Republican for president and have no intention of doing so now. But there is no way I will vote for Obama. I've had enough of amateur presidents, after eight years of this one. You Obama people can take it any way you like, for all I care, but your guy is too green for me. I am supporting Clinton because she is the perfect mix of Obama's compassion and McCain's toughness. In both categories, she outdoes both of them.

Clinton '08!

George Skirkanich, Denver, CO (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:45 AM)

like Poachee dover de we will never vote for hillary ala bush the end justifies any means. we will never vote for mccain but we will vote as too many men and women have died creating and defending this all important right. we too will write in obama.

paul viel, creswell, oregon (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:47 AM)

"Judy Zona, Sandy Creek NY"

Who brought Rev Wright to the White House?
Who forgave terrorists?
Who Are You Kidding?
Or better yest Who is kidding you?

It has everything to do with race.

Wendy "Hussein", NYC (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:49 AM)

Rendell had it right in PA...some
white voters there will not and could not bring themselves to vote for a black man, thanks to HRC.

Thank God there are 49 other states

Allen Murray, Detroit (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:50 AM)

Why the race topic to begin with? Is not Obama's mother white? I am a Native American. If race is an issue, maybe I should not vote for HRC because of what the white man did to our nation! Get real. Bottom line is that HRC will do whatever it takes to get in the White House because of the lifetime money factor involved. The Clinton's are not satisfied with Bill's share. HRC does not care about the USA. She cares about the money. She is a true politician.

DV (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:56 AM)

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