Here we go

Posted: Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:53 AM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
After Clinton's victory last night, the latest out of Clinton camp is that Clinton has pulled ahead of Obama in the popular vote. Of course, as we noted in First Thoughts, this can only be done by including Florida and Michigan, which is what the Clinton campaign has done.

Coming across journalists desks this morning was the following e-mail from Phil Singer at Clinton camp with the subject, "More People Have Voted For Hillary Than Any Other Candidate":

"After last night's decisive victory in Pennsylvania, more people have voted for Hillary than any other candidate, including Sen. Obama. Estimates vary slightly, but according to Real Clear Politics, Hillary has received 15,095,663 votes to Sen. Obama's 14,973,720, a margin of more than 120,000 votes. ABC News reported this morning that 'Clinton has pulled ahead of Obama' in the popular vote. This count includes certified vote totals in Florida and Michigan."

ABC's The Note reported this morning, however, similarly to what we wrote in First Thoughts: "By one (rightly disputed) metric -- the popular vote, including Florida and Michigan -- Clinton has pulled ahead of Obama. But without the rogue states, Obama is still up by 500,000 -- and if you can find another objective measurement by which she's in the lead, let us know."

RealClearPolitics keeps a popular vote tally, which breaks down the totals. It has a line also factoring in Michigan, which has an asterisk.

What we wrote: "That new popular vote total (not counting FL or MI) has Obama leading Clinton, 49%-47%. For those keeping score, that's a difference of 483,129. ... So those remaining contests, per this conservative projection, bring Obama’s popular vote lead to 515,629. If you add Florida, that gives Clinton almost another 300,000 more. So you if you include the Sunshine State, Obama will still lead her by about 215,000 popular votes. No wonder Clinton herself decided to start talking about Michigan again, because she can't "win" the popular vote without it. The problem: Even many Clinton supporters believe it’s not a valid measurement."

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Head to head polling (averaged amongst many separate polls)

Obama leads McCain by 1.2%
McCain leads Clinton by 0.3%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

Vote with your head, vote for the economy, vote for jobs.

Vote Democratic 2008 -- don't let the corporations and their Republican stooges win again.

Carol, Long Valley NJ (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:24 AM)

Democratic "leaders" will have a hell of a time getting Democrats to vote in Michigan and (especially) Florida in November if they continue to diss voters in those states now.

Yes, Democratic leaders in both states and at the DNC really, really screwed up. But what sins did rank-and-file voters commit? Why should they be punished by being ignored?

Methinks most of those urging Hillary to step aside now ignore these voters at their peril.

And, after what happened in Pennsylvania yesterday, I wonder whether an awful lot of Democratic "leaders" need to be reminded that what really matters is who can beat McCain in November.

K, Portsmouth, VA (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:24 AM)

Final tally

Clinton's Slightly Smaller Win
Though most articles this morning say Sen. Hillary Clinton beat Sen. Barack Obama last night in Pennsylvania by 10 points, the official tally actually shows her margin at 8.6%.

Grace (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:24 AM)

Unbelieveable, but then again, its coming from Hillary's camp, need I say more. I have never seen anything like this in my life. I totally get that politics can be nasty, but Hillary takes this to a new level. I can't stand this woman. The Democrats had better be careful, you're going to a place I don't think you'll like, from voters. If Obama doesn't get the nod, I will be switching to Independent. Try to figure me out in four years! I will be done with the democrats.....DONE!!!

skh4450, Chicago, Illinois (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:26 AM)

i forget ,why shouldnt florida count? oh yeah the republican governor decide to move up the date and now we are paying the price. didnt obama say vote "uncommitted" in michigan, so they did.cry baby1

diana. (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:27 AM)

My question is:
Why wasn't Obama's name on the ballot?

Answer: Because HE took it off.
And why did HE take himself off the ballot?
Who knows?

The fact that HE suddenly took HIS OWN name OFF the ballot (for no apparent reason) makes me believe that his internal polls told him Michigan was going to look like Ohio and Pennsylvania for him.

So, remember? He did that little mini-campaign to have people vote "Uncommitted" to embarass Hillary.

However, embarassingly for BHO, Uncommitted lost to HRC instead.

So, my belief is that he knew he wasn't going to win Michigan and wanted to be able to turn around and whine, "But my name wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan!"

Again, the looming question is WHY Obama made the bad decision to take his own name off the ballot in Michigan?

Why should he be rewarded for attempting to disenfranchise the voters in Michigan?

Jan (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:27 AM)

I get tired of hearing some in the media including Chris Matthews ask the question "why can't Obama knock Hillary out of the race", and make it sound like some kind of weakness regarding Obama's support, etc.

How about we turn the tables.

"Why is it that Hillary can't knock Obama out of the race"?

C A, Tuscaloosa, AL (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:28 AM)

You know this is really getting sad! You talk about why can't Obama close the deal? Well why can't Hillary close the deal? Has anyone ever ask that question?

Sue in La (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:29 AM)

You cannot count Michigan and Florida, Michigan for the obvious reason (Obama's name wasn't on the ballot) and Florida because he didn't campaign there either, and the name Clinton has circulated every household in America for decades, while outside of Illinois the name Obama wasn't widely recognized. The only way Michigan and Florida will be seated at the convention is divided between the two candidates based on results from the rest of the country; basically extending Obama's lead. Hillary's just trying to get her supporters to believe she has a chance so she doesn't have to lend 15 million dollars out of her pocket to her own dead-end campaign.

I wish she'd just quit. She's killing our chances in the fall with a dirt-slinging campaign that's going to need multiple miracles to win.

Andrew, Cincinnati, OH (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:30 AM)

I am a MN caucuser...and I will NOT stand for this popular vote BS. Hillary did not win my state (MN) because she hardly made an attempt to do so. If we had a primary (instead of a caucus), Hillary would have lost by an even wider popular vote count. (Perhaps ten times--or more--the number of people!!)

Additionally, caucus states are typically not the huge states that already have much larger popular vote counts. If we use the popular vote, this means that small caucus states count much less than the larger states which support the more expensive primaries.

Using the popular vote is unfair to caucus states--even the ones that know their actual popular vote count.

jforjools (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:30 AM)

Can someone clarify...is she counting Michigan as a ZERO for Obama to justify this line, or is she giving him the benefit of the "Uncommitted" vote? As shady as her entire campaign has been for months now, this would be an entirely new low, in my opinion.

John Wilson, Los Angeles, CA (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:30 AM)

"By one (rightly disputed) metric -- the popular vote, including Florida and Michigan

How can you dispute that? OK, they were not supposed to campaign here, and from what I understand, they didnt. Look, the people who run this state said: This is your primary day. If you want to have a vote recorded, be here to vote...so we showed up and we voted. Period. So, regardless of how the DNC calls it, the votes were cast by us, the people, and we voted for Hillary. Sorry bout your luck...and as for his name not being on the ballot in Michigan? WHY did he take it off? That looks to me like someone who was confused about what he should do, due to his INEXPERIENCE...duh....

Danaelle, Kissimmee (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:30 AM)

No todd, nice try, but the only one who is disenfranchising voters is Obama and his cult members. You are right. Votes MUST be counted. All of them. Even the ones for Hillary.

j fl (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:32 AM)

The deal is already closed. Clinton is like that business competitor who just can't believe that she's been excluded from the deal and keeps pestering your client.

Hillary, get over it.

Murgatroyd, Umpqua, Oregon (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:32 AM)

Of course it's not a valid measurement. It's a figment of the Clinton Campaign's imagination.

fortuna, Houston, TX (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:32 AM)

Do you hear that Obamabots?

More People Have Voted For Hillary Than Any Other Democratic Candidate.

The Truth (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:33 AM)

Hillary still doesn't let the objectivity get in the way of telling her version of the facts.

Didn't she sign a statement saying Michigan and Florida votes don't count?

As it stands now, all she can do is postpone the inevitable loss.

I'm not sure if she's delusional, stubborn, a snake, a fool or all of the above.

sg, michigan (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:33 AM)

Here's my first comments on yesterday's votes according to exit polls:
- 20% of the voters voted based on race. They voted 70 to 30 for Clinton. That's 8 percentage points.

- 26% said gender was an issue. They voted 76 to 24 for Clinton. That's about 10% although this group might overlap slightly (mostly voters voting for a woman because we want a female president in our lifetime group).

- Clinton won by 9.4 points.

Without those votes (and based solely on preceived ability to be the better president) the race would have been an Obama win as in Wisconsin. Note that those numbers are alsmost the same as Ohio so it had nothing to do with Wright's comments (which no one has been able to link as Obama's comments or views) but crystalized institutional focus on race issues by some 20% of the folks in those states. Stuff like this is what gives us 8 years of non achievement and non progress and the economy those 20% suffer for as much as we all do.

Someone will counter that Obama got 90% of black vote because he is black. Assuming the vote would have been 50:50 were he not black: That represents 0.45*14% voting based on race as blacks (since 14% of voters were black which is 6%). Now the 50:50 assumption is really a stretch as it is also appropriate to factor in that Kerry got 70% of black vote over Edwards and Gore similarly over Bradley so the black vote is never 50:50. Once they determine their interest, it usually is overwhelming since they vote on a few specific issues. But then we are looking at (less than 6% non-issue based votes for Obama compared to about 18% for Hillary).

Maybe 4 more years of this kind of suffering in this country while our dollar recedes compared to the rest of the developed world will enhance our decision making abilities in terms of voting correctly. The alternative, we must continue talking to our neighbors and spreading some knowledge.

J. Richter (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:34 AM)

she is the worse person in the world
if she steal this thing i will stay home, i now hate her and bill

joe Oklahomacity (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:34 AM)

Thank you Operation Whimpy Whiner participants. Your ability to come up with excuses for Barack are above reproach. Any Liberal Elitist in this country would be proud of your excuses.

Obama '08 (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:34 AM)

Of COURSE not!!

What about the caucus states?

It's about delegates!

The Media should be ashamed of themselves, playing along with Clintons fantasies!

Samantha Power was RIGHT! (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:34 AM)

Typical Hillary" Janus " Clinton she includes MI and Florida in her count. Problem is they do not count. She lied about Bosnia she ahd a 20 point lead in PA and lost it. They have had to personally attack a fellow democrat utilzing the Karl Rove play book and play the race card agaisnt him( Bill's comments). Obama is no saint but if Hillary believes a price will not be paid if Obama leads in delegate and popular vote and they hand her the nomination she is delusional. The Democrats will lose the white house and maybe operational control of the Senate. Hillary is your restoration that important?

Terry, Great Plains (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:35 AM)

Clinton is like my neighbor's dog. It's a tiny little mixed breed that grabs my pant leg every time I walk by. I'd like to kick it, but I know that would really hurt my neighbor, so I walk along, dragging the dog until I can get to a water hose and give it a squirt.

Willy, Raleigh, NC (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:35 AM)

I have a question for Morning Joe. Does the fact theat the exit poles show that Hillary's voters won't vote for Obama mean that she is the one that is getting the crossover votes that may or may not be there in the general election? Does the fact that Obama's voters say they will support Hillary in the general election mean that Obama is getting the votes of the true Democrates?

Kieth Elko NV. (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:35 AM)

so the message from the clintons is: if you voted "undeclared" because Obama's name wasn't on in Michigan: your vote doesn't matter

AND

If you voted in a caucus: your vote doesn't matter

thanks Hillary....glad to see you're fighting for 'us'...

sean, atl, ga (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:35 AM)

A Win is a win and a vote is a vote.

So do not call a win (in PA) or a vote in (MI) invalid.

Keith, MI (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:35 AM)

Obama only wins if Florida and Michigan don't count. Having successfully blocked re-dos in Florida and Michigan, the Obama campaign is hardly in a position to complain about the results we do have--especially since they are election results certified by the two states, something that cannot be said about any caucus results. It's one thing to say we won't take your delegates to our convention. Its quite another to say we're also going to ignore your votes. The voters of Michigan and Florida are not responsible for those states trying to jump the gun. Neither is Sen. Clinton. So, why should they be penalized? And turning to a more practical matter, can't you just hear John McCain campaigning in Florida and Michigan against Obama in the general: "Sen. Obama didn't want your votes counted during the primaries, and you shouldn't give him your votes now." Live by the sword die by the sword.

TruthTeller (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:36 AM)

And Obama wasn't even on the Michigan Ballot!

The SUPERS need to DECLARE!

Samantha Power was RIGHT! (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:36 AM)

By her logic then, let's include the popular vote from the caucus states. My understanding is that they are not included in the reported numbers.

You add those numbers in and Barack is ahead by over 1 million.

It's time for Al Gore to put his support behind Barack and send the Clintons back home.

I am suffering from Clinton fatigue and considering to put my support behind Nadar is she wins the nomination.

Sue, Elyria, OH (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:36 AM)

The Clintons...Sorta like "Beauty and the Beast" but "Beast and the Beast"....

donna (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:37 AM)

It's simple. You beat the black candidate by reminding everyone (asian, native american, hispanic and whites) that he is black. Then, you let other people look for stereotypes. I.e. he is smug or arrogant. Then you link him to Farrakhan. Even if you have a some sort of a link to Farrakhan himself. Then you make him sound like he thinks he is better than you. Added Bonus if you can make some people think he is muslim. Also, cut his legs off so he can't talk about the issues, and that if he does, no one will listen. Then, steal his stump speech so you sound more hopeful.. just like him. Talk about green jobs, and make it sound like you came up with it. Tell the people you are against nafta but go behind their backs and do otherwise. Continue to move the goal post. Confuse everyone. COunt on those people who do not come out and vote so they can come and vote you. Also, make sure to play the race card but blame him for it. Then, play on sexism and show emotion so all the women vote for you. Helps if you are a woman.

It is very easy, and this is why Obama was never gonna win from Day ONE!

Yup (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:37 AM)

This is just stupid. How can you include a vote that both parties agree, that it will not count?

What is the best way to settle the dispute between the two giants?

Baltimore, MD (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:37 AM)

Is there anything that that woman wouldn't say or do to justify winning in her mind? Of course she won PA, with the PA machinery behind her. The miracle would have been if Barack had won. As it is, he went from over 25% behind to less than 9% behind. The rest were never going to budge, too busy watching American Idol.

Vote with your head, vote for the economy, vote for jobs.

Vote Democratic 2008 -- don't let the corporations and their Republican stooges win again.

Carol, Long Valley NJ (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:37 AM)

I'm sorry, but I'm totally unimpressed with HRC's continual inclusion of two states which won't be in the count.

As for her incessant reasoning that Obama "isn't qualified" on the foreign policy experience needed, I ask openly what made her husband such a good candidate to run against GHWBush in 1992?
After all, Bill didn't have that experience, and Bush#41 wasa a former Navy pilot and ex-head of the CIA.
Obviously if she still thinks her husband was qualified back then, inexperienced as he was, then Obama is too.

Look, both candidates are HUMAN, and therefore imperfect. Stop looking for perfection, and get back to looking for hope for the future.

Leave the fear tactics to McCain & the GOP.

Go Obama!

Alec McT, Santa Rosa, CA (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:38 AM)

So how are the caucus states figured into the popular vote total? If they aren't figured in at all, then the whole popular vote narrative the Clinton camp is pushing is beyond ludicrous ... then again, it's just what we can expect from them.

RL/ nyc (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:38 AM)

So much for all the caucus states... according to Hillary, those states don't actually count... and of course they try to count Michigan, where Obama wasn't evne on the ballot, and Florida, where voters got to vote based off name-recognition with virtually zero exposure to the candidates.

The Clintons are absolutely rediculous.

Ron, TX (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:38 AM)

Hillary clinton is an evil witch.

Andy, Ny (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:39 AM)

The percent has been updated.
The actual results now is 8.5 percent margin. Not 10.
Either way, we now have 2 more weeks of clinton's farce of her candidacy where she and the media pretends she is still viable so we can have 2 more weeks of destructive Clintonian spin and attacks to divide and damage the party further.

diane (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:40 AM)

Hillary's new slogan:

ONLY I CAN

Mike Finney, Hurst, TX (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:40 AM)

You have to admit that the Clinton camp has elevated parsing definitions and data to an art form.

Should this whole politics thing not work out, they can certainly make a living as "fine print" writers for cell phone contracts.

Patrick, Houston, TX (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:40 AM)

Super delegates don't have to be in MENSA to recognize that they are responsible for the following charade: seeing the perfect definition of "smoke and mirrors", with Hillary's heavy hand print all over this psycho drama she's playing out.

Who would have EVER thought that a democrat would permit a losing candidate to EVER say, "overturn the vote of the people, the rules, the most states, the most delegates, and elect me instead." For this, we fault the super delegates, plain and simple.

Rita, Oklahoma City, Okla. (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:40 AM)

All this BS from Clinton just drives me to send Barrack another c-note!

Jim, Santa Cruz (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:40 AM)

This is Clinton's only positive narrative, but in the end it will hurt her because almost everyone outside of the Clinton campaign thinks that it is disgusting to try to count Michigan.
This will just reinforce the idea that she'll say/do anything to get elected. Her negatives are going up as a result of this.
That said, she doesn't have a lot of other options.

Shawn Goddard, Burlington, VT (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:41 AM)

"Jennifer Granholm. Nancy Pelosi. Kay Bailey Hutchison.

Any of these choices would be better suited to be the first female president of the United States. Are we so desperate for a female president that we will scrape the bottom of the barrel, and give that honor to someone as corrupt as Hillary Clinton?

I hope not.
Sick of corruption, sick of the Clintons (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:51 AM)"

Normally I agree w/you, Sick - however, speaking as a resident of Michigan, our fair governor has helped run our state into the ground. She seems to forget that she is the gov of the ENTIRE state, not just Detroit and Ann Arbor. She tends to forget the Western half of the state because it's mainly red vs. blue. So, I hope she never gets that far.

Otherwise, you are right on.

MI Chick (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:41 AM)

technically Clinton's win was under 10 points (still single digit) but no one bothers to point that out. It looks better for her to say double-digit. The math is just not there for her and it is a shame that she and her supporters cannot look beyond her nose to and own personal wishes and do what is best for the people of this country. It is still 'Hillary first' and always will be with them.

bernadette (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:41 AM)

Typical that Hillary would try to keep Florida and Michigan in the equation when they are not allowed to have any effect on the primary race because those two states broke party rules. Hillary will break any rules to win unfairly. Why wasn't Hillary able to deliver a knockout blow in PA when she had a 19% lead to begin the race?

Go Obama!

Eric, Salinas, CA (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:42 AM)

What bunch of smoke ... this is not Russia, Billary !

Frank, Missouri (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:42 AM)

I hope Hillary stays in til the end. I hope she knocks Mr. Phoney, know nothing out of the race. I would actually rather have McCain for four years than Obama. At least we know McCain. I am a moderate democrat.

j fl (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:42 AM)

Michagan nor Florida votes should count as it is because it wouldn't be fair.

If its one thing that we've learned, it's that Obama has always, I REPEAT ALWAYS, gained momentum in states where he has campaigned. None of the candidates campaigned in Florida so how can you accept the results as VALID!!!!

Doug, DC (Sent Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:42 AM)

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