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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Obama camp: The race hasn't changed

Posted: Wednesday, April 23, 2008 11:35 AM by Mark Murray

From NBC's Mark Murray and NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
In a conference call with reporters this morning, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe argued that Clinton's win in Pennsylvania yesterday doesn't change the current trajectory of the race:
-- Obama leads among pledged delegates, and Clinton will have to win about 70% of the remaining ones to overtake Obama on this measure.
-- to get within 100 pledged delegates of Obama, Clinton will have to win 57% of the remaining ones
-- and when looking at the total delegate score (pledged delegates and superdelegates), Obama is about 300 away from clinching the nomination; Clinton, according to NBC's count, is more than 430 delegates away.

VIDEO: NBC's Andrea Mitchell talks with Obama's national campaign co-chair Bill Daley about the Democratic presidential election.

"We don't believe the structure of the race is going to change fundamentally," he said. "She does need to win out here and win by some margin."

Plouffe also touched on electability, noting that the Clinton campaign touts its wins in big battleground states (like Ohio and Pennsylvania). "Well, North Carolina is a big battleground state," he said. "So by their own definition, it would appear that they would need to win North Carolina and win it by a big margin." Obama, of course, is favored in the Tar Heel State.

That said, Plouffe argued -- as we have -- that projecting general election performance based on primary results is a dubious exercise. The better measures are public polls matching up McCain and the Democratic nominee. And according to those polls, Plouffe said, Obama fares better than Clinton does in potential battleground states like Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Oregon, and Wisconsin. (However, polls show Clinton performing better than Obama against McCain in Florida and Ohio.)

More importantly, Plouffe added, Obama does better with independents against McCain than Clinton does.

Not surprisingly, the Clinton campaign had a much different take the day after Pennsylvania, saying the "tide is turning."

"By providing fresh evidence that Hillary is the candidate best positioned to beat John McCain in the fall, the Pennsylvania primary is a turning point in the nominating contest," it said in a memo. "Despite making an unprecedented financial investment in his Pennsylvania campaign, including millions on negative ads in the closing days of the race, Sen. Obama again failed to win a state that will be vital to a Democratic victory in November and spurred new questions about his ability to beat John McCain. No candidate has ever had more resources or enjoyed the kind of momentum that Sen. Obama had in Pennsylvania."

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Three weeks ago everyone was saying go Clinton needed at least 60% of the remaining vote. Now that she gets 55% in one state these same people are saying she is alive and well. That 55% victory only put her even farther behind. The only way she can honestly win is to get more than 60% of the remaining vote. Forget the spins from both sides, according to the official rules she has to get more than 60% to get the offical 2024 delegates. The only way she can win is either get 61% or more of the remaining delegates or change the rules.

Changing the rules in midstream is out of the question!
Please post this:

Obama's percent of the vote:

                 OH   PA
60 and older      28   38
White             34   38
White men         39   44
White women       31   34
Less than $50K    42   46
No college        40   38
College           51   49
Catholic          36   31
Protestant        36   53


What was a 10.5% win in demographically friendly Ohio has become an 8.6% win in similar Pennsylvania, except the state was even less black and with a much smaller youth voter population (Pennsylvania's seniors accounted for 32 percent of the electorate, compared to 23 percent in Ohio).

And, those gains were made despite the Wright controversy as well as manufactured bullshit about "bitter" and flag pins and whatnot.

On top of that, Obama has had to run against Hillary Clinton, against former President of the United States Bill Clinton, and against John McCain and the entire GOP apparatus, which has trained its guns on Obama hoping to give Clinton a boost.

Yet he continues to gain among most of Clinton's best demographics, is still raising more money, leads comfortably in delegates, leads comfortably in the popular vote, leads in states won, leads in the national polls, and does better in the head-to-head matchups against McCain.
Everyone talks about what the Republicans will do to Obama if he gets the nomination...but the truth is they are salivating over having Hillary run.  Doesn't anyone remember the 90's?  Monica wasn't the ONLY issue.  Every time you turned around, there was another investigation into the Clintons.  These were more focused on Bill, not Hillary.  

If she gets the nomination, we WILL have several months of the investigations into her dealings.  

Please tell me no one is blind enough to think that Obama has anywhere near the baggage the Clintons have...even if we've seen it before, we WILL see it again!
The only BIG NUMBERS Clinton's going to see (and is now seeing) is the RED numbers on their books.  She put her campaign 10M in the red just to pick up 9 delegates.  

I think it was excellent strategy for Obama to spend so much in PA to lower the gap from a 20 point lead down to the final 8.5 points (which is the result posted on PA State results), thereby forcing her further into debt.   If you count the 5M she loaned to herself, she's now 15M in the hole.  

The key was how she won in Pennsylvania. She clobbered him among the voting blocs that are critical to a Democratic victory: union households, women, Catholics, working class and downscale voters, and those who didn't attend college. The Democratic nominee who doesn't win a solid majority of these voting groups is all but certain to lose in November.

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=2221


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No candidate has ever had more resources or enjoyed the kind of momentum that Sen. Obama had in Pennsylvania."

____________________________________
but......he still lost.
I like the message that Hillary's camp is putting out. It should be expanded. What is wrong with Hillary in that at the start of the campaign she was the favorite by a great margin and had the money, name and super delegates in her pocket as a result of past favors by Bill, and now she is in second place in a two horse race? Much of her support is the payback to Bill and not a result of anything she has done.

So where are we now? How much does she have to pay herself back? Do new contributions go to the campaign or are they used to pay back bills?
Nice spin Howard, but you can't call an universally expected result a "turning point". If anything, we should look at the fact that Obama pulled just within ten points of Hillary in a state tailor made for her, in which she enjoyed the support of the entire Pennsylvania Democrat Machine courtesy of Ed Rendell and the big city mayors. The turning point is that Hillary could not blow Obama out in what amounts to her home state. Look at the margins by which he BLOWS HER OUT in states not nearly as favorable to him as Pennsylvania was to her (Virginia? COLORADO? He beat her by ten points in UTAH, which was a primary and not a caucus as has been incorrectly reported.)In states that highly favor Obama, Clinton can't even compete. In two weeks, Clinton is going to get blown out again in North Carolina, which will remind voters what a "big" win really looks like (it isn't 10 points, and the final margin in PA is less than 10.)
Yesterday, she was two runs down in the eighth inning.

This morning, she's two runs down in the ninth inning, and she's batting first.

The margin is the same, but her chances of pulling an upset are a lot worse.
Dear Clinton campaign,

You can't start up a brutally negative campaign, then incessantly complain about "negative ads" whenever someone tries to retaliate and defend themselves.

You can't complain about debates being unfair to you, then accuse your opponent of "whining" when he does the same and claim that you're stronger because you, uh, I guess only whined about the EARLIER debates.

No more hypocrisy.  It's time to step up and accept responsibility for your actions.  That's what a president, or any politician, should do.  Want to prove that you'd be a better leader than Obama?  Then tell the truth and practice what you preach.  
Obama goes into Indiana ahead of Clinton.  He went into Pennsylvania down by almost 30% and was able to cut that margin down to 10%.  Going into Indiana, he will surely win.  

Also, for all the people who are saying that he has more money and should have won.... I'm sorry, but the fact that the Clinton's have been spending money in PA since 92' surely counters that.  Also, Obama was able to cut into Hillary's demographics, and her lead.  OBAMA HAD TO SPEND THE MONEY HE DID.  And it's a good thing that Hillary got all that money last night.  She'll need it to pay of her debt.
One additional point on Jane's astute post about Obama's gains: The numbers actually understate those gains, because Pennsylvania was a closed primary. If independents had been able to vote in PA (as they could in Ohio), the numbers would show even bigger inroads for Obama in most of those demographics.
Congratulations, Senator Clinton. I hope you think your effort is worthy of something larger than your family's personal legacy. I hope that there's space somewhere in your rhetoric for you to do more for the country than you have for New York.
I read somewhere this morning that Senator Obama only needs 40% of the outstanding super delegates to capture the nomination.

"No candidate has ever had more resources or enjoyed the kind of momentum that Sen. Obama had in Pennsylvania."

Senator Clinton, you won PA By 8 points. Congratulations.

But not too good a showing considering the guys and gals loved the whiskey/beer drinking bar buddy image you portrayed.

You lost a great deal of momentum somewhere along the way. As Keith Olbermann corrected stated last night, each state you're ahead in, Senator Obama comes in and cuts into your lead big time. It was obvious again when I was watching the returns last night.

It is you who has lost the momentum. You were a shoe in for the nomination until Iowa voted.

Barack Obama in a head to head match up with John McCain will do much better than you across the country. Your negatives are huge. The Republican Party's negatives as well are huge.  Senator Obama's are not.

This isn't the Republicans' year. Or yours.

There's a poll out there that's been making me crazy. More than half of polled voters think that Obama will be the nominee, but then when it's time to vote more than half of the voters didn't vote for him. What is the deal? Is voting for Clinton some kind of entertainment or vanity vote because the majority of people think Obama will be the nominee anyway?
If you want to talk electability (and I'm not sure that's an easy measure to talk about, really), on poll numbers now, the candidates are about equal and have been for quite awhile.  Think back to Russert's maps with the paths (two different paths) to victory in Nov.

So, why upset the cart if they're both similarly electable...why risk breaking apart the Democratic Party like an uncooked egg.  Why even undertake the exercise?  Just because Clinton has to have her way (hers and Bills perhaps)?

Obama falters against her when he is under the attack from all (and by falter I mean simply that she wins some votes to hers, really not unexpected, look at McCain versus Paul and Huckabee in PA even after one has left the race and one has no chance of winning, they both still pull votes).  Unified, he will get those votes, not all but a good share, and votes from some Republicans and many independents as well.

The electability argument is unclear at best OR favors Obama.  With broadbased  Dem. support he wins blue and purple and maybe even some red in the Fall...

Her electability has some definite problems unless she is running for President of Penn. and a couple of other states (Ohio, mainly).
Parse, argue, calculate, formulate, mix it up any way you want.  COngratulations to HRC for her Pa win.  Parse, argue, calculate, formulate, mix it up any way you want.  Senator Obama is going to win this primary season, and there is little to be done to change that.  I'm not really seeing it, but HRC needs to put her big girl panties on and start putting together some Obama campaign for POTUS material if she is the true Dem she claims to be.  Whether it is in May, June, or July, it's going to happen folks, and if for some unG-dly reason the superdelegates  descend to give her this nomination against every honest barometer so far.......The Clinton dynasty and all it stood for is toast, along with the party they claim they love so much.  OBAMA 08
Is it true that the Democrat primary in Pennsylvania was closed to Democrats only?  Does that mean Obama could not take advantage of cross-over Republican and independant voters?

If so, then Obama would fare better in the general election.
America could be facing a crisis. We have airlines going out of business and truckers shuting down because of the high cost of fuel. Workers being asked to take pay cuts so companies can compete with china. Imagine going from $28.00 an hour to $14.00 an hour at a time when inflation is sky rocketing. We buy more from China and workers are loosing their jobs. Healthcare is a major problem. After 8 years of George Bush we need real CHANGE in America.

This sounds like an Obama speech.
Can anyone tell me what he is going to do about it?
Haven't heard that yet!
Using the delegate counter, Clinton would need to win all 10 remaining contests by a 60-40 margin AND win about 58% of the remaining superdelegates to overtake Obama.  How clueless is the Clinton campaign?  It cannot be done, especially not in North Carolina and Indiana.
AMERICA IS LAUGHING AT MSNBC AND CNN ONCE AGAIN! for pushing Obama in voters faces and FINALLY its backfiring,all the serious issues they hide from voters is making its way out via internet, CNN/MSNBC cannot stop it any longer! keep up the obama coronation, its turning voters to Clinton. He proved with 12 millions in negative ads in PA he lost DOUBLE DIGITS!!!

OBAMA IS A LOOSER TODAY! AND MOST CERTINALLY WOULD BE IN NOV!

CONGRATS SENATOR CLINTON! WELL DONE! LETS  KEEP FIGHTING FOR OUR GREAT BUT TROUBLED COUNTRY! WE ARE BEHIND YOU....
Reality check: What percentage does Obama need to get to have enough delegates, whatever kind?  He cannot win through these remaining primaries either.
My thought is does he lose now or in November?!
Hillary needs to chill. She had all the state's establishment working for her. That's why she won. But Obama will be the Democratic nominee. Hillary is from the old style politics and is too negative and divisive. That's why I'll never vote for her again. We need change. Obama is going all the way.
People if you are up by 25 points and you win aren't you supposed to win?  Can we find one objective Clinton supporter who is willing to admit this.  If she is doing so well why couldn't she hold her blow out lead?  If Obama hadn't spent in Pennsylvania he would have been blown to other side of the country.
Time to "shut her down" and start backing the next president of the United States of America - President Obama.

Truth, integrity and strength - Obama '08
Nope, it hasn't changed. Its exactly according to Axelrod's assessment.
Bill and Hillary Clinton will single handedly be responsible for the demise of the democratic party...hopefully this gets settled before all that is left in Denver is a big hole in the ground where the Pepsi Center once stood.
Brother Odd, you bring up an extremely important point.  We are in crisis and it is only going to worsen over the summer.  Gas is $3.43 a gallon where I live in TN.  Our groceries, goods and services - everything that must be transported - are going to increase drastically as these gas prices keep rising.  This will shut down many small businesses and those that are already on the ropes, not to mention totally break the backs of those living from paycheck to paycheck who can't afford gas to drive to work.  

I want to hear my candidate, Sen. Obama, address this issue that has the potential to put our economy under.    
Blue collar workers are there own worst enemy they vote the same way election after election...that's why there work force has decreased year after year. Election after election...They always vote the same as there fathers and grandfathers and nothing has changed for them in decades...uneducated and driven by spin...think of the possibly of change for them if they had education and could see beyound there own neighborhood.

GO Obama!!!!
We need to rechannel and focus our energy on talking to the good people of North Carolina and Indiana, particularly Indiana.

In North Carolina, unaffiliated voters are permitted to vote in the Democratic primary. Early voting in NC has already begun. Latest Real Clear Politics Average Poll shows Obama leading by a margin of +15.5 as of April 22.

In Indiana, unaffiliated voters are also permitted to vote in the Democratic primary. Latest Real Clear Politics Average Poll shows Clinton leading by a slim margin, +2.2, as of April 22.

After taking time to post your comment (and some of them are pretty darn good and on point), please take the extra step and take time to make phone calls. The good people of Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Oregon and Kentucky need to hear from you. Forget the MSM - Be your own sound bite!

Please go to the "Make Calls" link on Senator Obama's website and inspire people to come out in support of Barack.

It is on us to start making the change we say we desire!
The media has been complicit in Clinton's attempts to change the rules of the primary season. If any other candidate had tired to change the rules, certainly the media would have forcefully challenged that person's attachment to reality. Contrary to popular belief, the media allows Clinton to get away with lies, half-truths, and misspeaking. What's more, no one can honestly say that Clinton has been fully vetted when none of the scandals from the 90s have been discussed. IT IS FAIR GAME AND SHOULD BE EXPLORED BY THE MEDIA. Clinton's role in each scandal should shed some light on her leadership skills or lack thereof and how we can expect her to behave as President. There is an entire generation of new voters unfamiliar with the scandals of the 90s. The media is failing to do its job, just as they failed to do its job with the run-up to the Iraq war. You would have thought they would have learned a lesson. But access is more important than telling the truth to the American people. The press is no longer free. It is simply owned and manipulated by the people in power. It is truly disgraceful that the media has not shown any of the coffins or funerals of the soliders who died in Iraq. We owe them the respect to acknowledge their lives and death because of what they scarificed for this country. They should not be relegated to obscurity because the folks in power know that those visuals will end the war. Shameful. As such, we not only have to regain our democracy but also a truly free press.
The exit polling of the Ohio and PA primaries indicate that the US still has vast numbers of voters who are stuck in the mentality of the last century. They have not evolved to be able to accept people of color in leadership positions. Who among this group (largely white, over 50 years old, female) has ever voted for a black person? There may be blacks in leadership positions in these states but they represent largely black electorates. These states have never elected black governors. These voters are not openly racist, but they retain deep resistance and resentment towards people of color. Sadly, it is becoming clear that the United States is not willing to let go of old fears and prejudices. Yes, this will be overcome eventually, but those of us who were hoping it could happen now are becoming extremely disappointed by our fellow Americans.  
With every pasing primary she falls further and further behind. It's a lot like negatively amortizting or an upside-down equity. Did I hear mortgage crisis?  It's time to stop with the closing the deal line. What race are these people watching?
Patty, your candidate has lost states as well has she not? If she had not I believe she would be in the lead for the nomination. Your candidate needs to win by 60% or more in the rest of the races, can she do it? If your candidate is as strong as you think she is why is she not raising as much if not more than Obama is? The people are supporting him giving him the money to spend. That says alot.
I'll tell you how Hill will run her campaign with NO money.  She will do the same thing she did in PA.  USE the media to get her message across.  Obama had to spend millions to get on the airwaves, but all Clinton had to do was go to the media and have THEM get her message across to the masses and do her dirty work.  And guess what?  It seems to work.  Think about it...incessant "bittergate".  That was not a tv ad.  That horrible ABC debate...that too was not a tv ad.  But they reached millions of people.  As mastercard would say...priceless.
If the exit polling results are an accurate prediction of what voters will do in November, it seems that it's either Clinton/Obama or 4 more years of Bush III, aka McCain.
David Plouffe re: Hil's tired general election arguments:  "Well, North Carolina is a big battleground state. So by their own definition, it would appear that they would need to win North Carolina and win it by a big margin."

Good, Plouffe!  Turn the expectations game back around on her!  She HAS to win NC by a landslide, or both the popular vote AND the delegates she gained in PA will be erased.
sorry but it has - the race that is.

He could get the nomination but that would be due to technicality. the same way bush won over gore.

He has not truly proven himself capable of winning the big swing states and the critical democratic base states. he can't change that fact.

don't count texas because they will vote republican anyway. and he only edge her in texas because of the caucuses. in the general election, we don't vote via caucus. so there goes his advantage.

he will definitely lose florida to mccain. possibly ohio, michigan and pennsylvania as well. at least we know that hilary can carry those states. i don't think anyone can win the presidency if you lose any of one of those let alone all of them.

the dnc has to think long and hard about this. barack had not won a major state really. most of the states he won he will not get in the ge.

i think hilary is the way to go.

please post this msnbc.
Someone needs to tell Obama that being "Mr. Nice" isn't working. It's time to fight back! As for more debates -- forget it! We, the voters, are tired of debates! It's time for action and this campagin to be over.
http://twocanpete.blogspot.com/
McCain has picked the dumbest woman Wall Street has seen in the last fifteen years to be in charge of his economic policy and now the campaign suggests she could be V.P. Obama has got to be laughing all the way to the voting booth!
[[ Everyone talks about what the Republicans will do to Obama if he gets the nomination...but the truth is they are salivating over having Hillary run. ]]


Either one. Doesn't matter who. Talking points are virtually the same for one as for the other. Both are very weak candidates.
Obama is simply unelectable. There is too much at stake. Why can't he seal the deal? The base of the democratic party does not support him. If you can't carry the base, you will loose the election.
This is the first election where the phrase "pledged delegates" has had any significance or been treated as some sort of "perfect test" for electability. Voters in the primary or caucus process seldom vote directly (if ever) for a predetermined slate of convention delegates. One would hope that convention delegates care enough about their nation and their party to be prepared to make an independent judgement regarding who the party nominee should be based upon "facts on the ground" at the time of the convention.

Mr. Plouffe may not yet realize it but the sand under the Obama campaign has begun to shift and neither Obama nor Clinton has a lock on the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination.  Stay tuned.
We have a DIVIDED Democrat Party.  How do they unite our country?  I am sorry to say that John McCain will win in November.
After the dust from Pennsylvania has settled, Obama is still leading in delegates and in the popular vote. Given the states that have yet to vote, this probably won’t change. Deal with it and accept it. So what does Clinton think she can do? Turn to the superdelegates? If people think that the current battles are tearing up the party, it will be nothing if Obama keeps the delegate and popular vote leads and the superdelegates give Clinton the nomination. It will be a disaster.

She can try to make the case all she wants, but she can’t beat McCain. Her negatives are too high and they are getting higher. Further, there are fast-growing perceptions that she is condescending, shrill, dishonest, and that she will do and say anything to win, regardless of principle (or lack thereof). Her policy positions and ideas can’t take away these perceptions – just ask Al Gore or John Kerry. While I would like to say that I would support any Democrat versus John McCain, I just can’t see myself voting for her.
Obama claims that he just wanted to "narrow the gap"? That doesn't make sense -- why anyone would outspend their opponent 3-1 so they could lose by 10 points?
Congratulations to Hillary on winning Pennsylvania.  I voted for her in my state primary and contributed to her campaign (will make another contribution today)

Hillary is the most qualified and electable candidate for President and I will support her all the way to the White House (baggage and all).

BTW:  Obama will make a great Vice-President and can run again in 2016, when he has more experience.

HILLARY, OUR NEXT PRESIDENT !!!
For all you hacks saying that Obama won't have a chance in this election, just turn your attention to the one fact that the media is not talking about: In the Pennsylvania primary for the republican candidates, John McCain won with 525,000 votes. All the votes combined for republicans totaled a little over 700,000. Obama had 1 million votes in Pennsylvania last nite. Even if 30% of Hillary's supporters vote for McCain, Obama will still win by a large number with the remaining Hillary voters who would vote for him.  The news affilliates don't tell us this because they wouldn't be able to sensationalize the election like they're doing. You guys, this is just for ratings, the primary is over.

Obama 08
"The Race Hasn't Changed"


Yes it has.

And you know it.

Hillary/08
Here’s a middle class older white woman’s spin for what it is worth.  DO YOU HAVE CHILDREN? Well you better get them passports fast.  We have McCain singing “Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran” to Beachboys rendition of Barbara Ann.  We have Clinton saying NUKE IRAN.  America is in two wars right now where the troops are spread thin and some are there for their third or fourth time.  Just recently the Armed Forces is now taking felons since they can not get enough of our children, husbands and wives to sign up.

WAKE UP AMERICA – we will be in a third war – probably starting WWIII if we back these candidates.  Don’t come back crying when it happens.  And don’t come back crying when they re-institute the draft and take away our kids.

Obama is not perfect; he does not walk on water.  However, he is the only one that seems to be interested in talking with all world leaders (leaders not terrorists).  

These are American lives we are talking about – sons, daughters, husbands, wives, and friends.  Give PEACE A CHANCE!  Vote Obama.


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