The delegate fight: The push for supers
Posted: Thursday, April 24, 2008 9:20 AM by Mark Murray
The Wall Street Journal reports on the Clinton campaign's effort to convince undecided members of Congress that this isn't over. "The Clinton campaign was trying to overturn the sense of Sen. Obama's inevitability. Fifteen Democratic members of Congress assembled at Sen. Clinton's northern Virginia headquarters early Wednesday to strategize with staffers about courting the several hundred uncommitted superdelegates. One adviser said Tennessee Rep. John Tanner, a leader among House Democratic conservatives, had called last week. ‘He said, “If she wins Pennsylvania, I'm with you.”’ Later in the day, Sen. Clinton's campaign announced Rep. Tanner's endorsement.
“The Clinton campaign is renewing its fight to claim disputed votes from Florida and Michigan primaries, but that may anger the very superdelegates the campaign needs."
The LA Times: "Clinton's Pennsylvania win has bought her time -- but not much -- to make her case to the Democratic Party's superdelegates, many of whom expressed a strong desire Wednesday to end the nominating contest once the final votes are cast. Though few seem eager to use their power to call a halt to the presidential race -- and many said they welcomed the continued balloting -- a number of party leaders and other activists sent a clear signal that they want the fight over well before the Democratic convention in August.”
The paper interviewed a bunch of uncommitted supers for this story. This comment from the Idaho Dem Chair sums things up pretty well: “I'm not buying the Clinton argument that Sen. Obama is unelectable, but I certainly intend to continue to watch his performance to make my own determination of just how strong a candidate he will be," said R. Keith Roark, chairman of the Idaho Democratic Party.
The New York Post reports, “Trying to capitalize on her Pennsylvania victory, Hillary Rodham Clinton moved quickly to win over superdelegates yesterday by dispatching a top adviser to Congress armed with special, national electoral maps highlighting her advantages over Barack Obama. Clinton's campaign also insisted that she's now the leader in the overall Democratic popular vote.”
“Clinton adviser Harold Ickes, who is in charge of superdelegates for the campaign, arrived at the meeting with a group of congressional supporters and superdelegates armed with two pages of maps titled, ‘Obama's Red State Myth.’ It showed the states Obama has won and the states Clinton has won, giving her victories in battlegrounds with more Electoral College votes - 284 to his 202. That includes her controversial wins in Florida and Michigan.” The Obama camp said, “The latest Clinton spin is as contorted as their path to the nomination.”
The New York Times looks at the electability argument the two campaigns are making and seems to find validity in both. "Clinton says her popularity among blue-collar workers, women and Hispanics makes her the candidate to beat Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, in the swing states that decide presidential races. Along with Ohio and Pennsylvania, she also cites her success in Michigan and Florida — even though the Democratic Party disqualified those contests, and Mr. Obama was not on the Michigan ballot — to claim an edge in crucial battlegrounds.”
Yet for all of her primary night celebrations in the populous states, exit polling and independent political analysts offer evidence that Mr. Obama could do just as well as Mrs. Clinton among blocs of voters with whom he now runs behind. Obama advisers say he also appears well-positioned to win swing states and believe he would have a strong shot at winning traditional Republican states like Virginia."
NBC/WSJ Dem pollster Peter Hart puts it well: “Hillary goes deeper and stronger in the Democratic base than Obama, but her challenge is that she doesn’t go as wide,” Mr. Hart said. “Obama goes much further reaching into the independent and Republican vote, and has a greater chance of creating a new electoral map for the Democrats.”
The Washington Post talks to party leaders and finds them resigned to the primary season going through June 3, but optimistic they'll rally quickly after that. "Tuesday's results, while not unexpected, set off another intraparty debate over the state of the race. Strategist Tad Devine, who played top roles in the past two Democratic presidential campaigns, called Clinton's Pennsylvania victory ‘impressive’ and added, ‘I never thought it was over, but now I think she has more of a chance than she did two weeks ago.’”
“Rep. Artur Davis (Ala.), an Obama supporter, echoed the Obama campaign's analysis of the impact of Pennsylvania. ‘I don't think the race has fundamentally changed,’ he said. ‘He still has a notable lead in delegates, the popular vote, national polling and the money race.’”
The AP’s Pickler writes, “There are a couple other problems for Clinton in claiming the lead in the popular vote. Even using her criteria of counting Michigan and Florida, her lead may not last more than two weeks. That's because Obama is heavily favored to win the largest state left to vote, North Carolina, on May 6. Obama also is likely to win South Dakota and Oregon. Even if Clinton won all the other contests left -- Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Montana, Puerto Rico and Guam -- they are smaller contests that will make it difficult for her to catch back up.”
The AP: “A top supporter of Hillary Rodham Clinton has filed a challenge with the Democratic National Committee to try to seat Michigan's pledged delegates -- most of them likely to support the New York senator -- at the national convention in Denver. Under DNC member Joel Ferguson's proposal, Michigan would send its 28 unpledged superdelegates and 128 pledged delegates to Denver despite being stripped of delegates for holding its primary too early. Florida was similarly punished for its early primary. Ferguson said it would be fair punishment to give each pledged delegate only half a vote for breaking DNC rules. He said superdelegates -- of which he is one -- should get a full vote.”
