May 6: Indiana, tight as a tick
Posted: Friday, April 25, 2008 9:11 AM by Domenico Montanaro
INDIANA (May 6): Going for the knockout blow, Obama is spending the next two days in Indiana; he doesn't head to North Carolina again until Monday.
A couple of new polls are out today in Indiana -- both essentially showing the race a dead heat. An Indianapolis Star poll, conducted by the same pollster who regularly nails it for the Des Moines Register in Iowa (Selzer and Co.) has Obama with a narrow three-point lead, 41%-38%. Interestingly, this poll has Obama actually leading McCain in the general. "Among Hoosiers who said they would vote in the general election -- a statewide sample of voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points -- Obama beat McCain 49 percent to 41 percent. Clinton broke even with McCain, with both backed by 46 percent of those polled. And, by 49 percent to 35 percent, Democratic primary voters said Obama is the candidate best able to win in the general election."
Meanwhile, a new Research 2000 poll conducted for the South Bend Tribune has Obama up 48%-47%. A week ago, this same pollster had Clinton had by three points.
The Los Angeles Times looks at the map. "Clinton is expected to have the upper hand in factory towns like Anderson and Muncie, where blue-collar anger runs deep over the North American Free Trade Agreement and other, pending foreign trade deals. But the powerful United Auto Workers union has held off from an endorsement. Most of the state's top Democratic officials, from Sen. Evan Bayh on down, back Clinton, giving her ‘the Cadillac organization on the Democratic side,’ Howey said. Obama has the support of former Rep. Lee H. Hamilton, who has done a radio ad and is expected to campaign around Evansville, his former congressional base.”
“Clinton's toughest challenge is farther upstate, where new registration has soared among students in college towns like Bloomington, home of Indiana University. Overall, the state's voter totals have grown by 150,000 this year, officials reported. ‘Obama's played Bloomington like a violin,’ said Rob Stone, an emergency room physician. ‘Last summer, his people put out a table at the local farmers market, and they've been showing up every weekend.’”
“Clinton also faces surging first-time registration in black wards in Indianapolis and Gary, where Obama is counting on local leaders' backing."
To the West: Illinois, Obama’s home state. To the East, Ohio, where Clinton scored a double-digit victory. “The result: Neither candidate has a clear advantage as they seek the 72 pledged delegates at stake in Indiana's primary on May 6. Polls are split, making Indiana perhaps the biggest question mark left on the primary calendar.”
NORTH CAROLINA (May 6): The Washington Post looks at how a loss at NC could "shake" Clinton's claims of dominance in so-called "big" states. The CW is laid out: "North Carolina, with its large African American population, has long been seen as a firewall for Obama after contests in Ohio, Pennsylvania and elsewhere that favored Clinton. A win here and in Indiana, which also votes May 6, could cement his status as the front-runner.”
“If Clinton wins in Indiana and is able to score an upset, or even lose by a small margin, in North Carolina, her comeback would probably gain fresh momentum. A lopsided Clinton loss would essentially negate any recent gains she has made in delegates, in the nationwide popular vote and in persuading superdelegates to support her."
Raleigh News & Observer's Christensen covers Clinton's day in North Carolina yesterday. "Clinton returned to North Carolina on Thursday, reaching out to more moderate Democratic voters with a display of military brass, mentions of her Methodism and promises to end the Iraq war ‘responsibly.’ Hoping to build on her victory this week in Pennsylvania, Clinton sought to connect with the traditional values of rural, working-class people. She was accompanied by eight retired generals -- including Hugh Shelton, the former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff under President Clinton -- as she courted voters living near military bases in and in the mountains."
The Wall Street Journal writes on Clinton's efforts in North Carolina and notes: "Clinton wants to avoid the kind of blowout loss to Sen. Barack Obama she suffered in South Carolina in January. She is trying to demonstrate the breadth of her support to Democratic elected officials and other superdelegates who will sway the decision on the party's nomination. North Carolina has a large population of the economically hard-hit rural white voters among whom Sen. Clinton has fared well in recent contests. Thursday, Sen. Clinton held rallies in Fayetteville and Asheville. She is expected to visit a fire station in Jacksonville on Friday."
It looks like this NC GOP ad may never air. While the party claims it will, they've delayed the debut of it another week and a couple of major TV stations in the state have already said they wouldn't air it.
OREGON (May 20): Bill Clinton is spending tonight and tomorrow in Oregon. Interestingly, he makes just one brief stop in Portland, while the rest of his stops are in smaller Oregon towns.
