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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Big HRC fundraiser defects to Obama

Posted: Friday, April 25, 2008 2:18 PM by Chuck Todd

From NBC's Chuck Todd
One of the things that both Dem campaigns are always nervous about is defectors. In particular, Clinton is more vulnerable to this problem since she's the candidate that is trailing. Well, NBC News has learned that a major fundraiser for Hillary Clinton, former Amb. to Chile Gabriel Guerra-Mondragon is leaving the campaign to join up Barack Obama's campaign. Officially dubbed a "Hillraiser," Guerra-Mondragon raised nearly $500,000 for Clinton's campaign, according to some estimates. He has been informing people inside Clintonworld this week in what's been described as some tough conversations. A formal announcement of a role for Guerra-Mondragon on Obama's national finance committee will be made next week.  Guerra-Mondragon was appointed Amb. to Chile by Pres. Clinton in '94 and served until '98.

Among the reasons for Guerra-Mondragon to defect, according to one informed source, was he was uneasy with the tone of the Clinton campaign and was beginning to worry about what this would mean for the general election.

It's unclear if this defection will lead to others; the Clinton camp has been particularly effective at getting folks to keep their powder dry. For Obama, this comes at a time when his campaign is trying to re-convince insiders that the math indicates he has the nomination virtually wrapped up. In addition, Guerra-Mondragon's defection could serve as a tipping point with some key Hispanic Democratic leaders that Obama is ready to start making a bigger effort to court Hispanics.  

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How many Clinton supporters and ex-administration officials have jumped ship this far? If Hillary was gaining momentum and turning the tide, shouldn't people be defecting from Obama's campaign instead? Seems odd.
welcome aboard !
Only those who want to CLING TO THE THRONE stay with Hillary. Well, America is a not a dynasty.
YES, WE CAN!!!
GO OBAMA! We are happy to accept anyone who is ready for a new politics is WELCOME to the side for hope and change!
Not a good sign when your top supporters start defecting.  

I live a bit of a sheltered life as an educated white man in Illinois, but I think there is massive voter fraud going on out there.  Who in the world is voting for Hillary I haven't met anyone who can stand the thought of her winning this nomination, much less the election.
Sen. Clinton:

This defection goes to show what we have been saying all along; had you stayed above the fray, or least towed the line, you wouldnt have this problem right now.  The fact that you decided to cross over, because you listened to polls and your misguided staff, you are going to lose to Sen. Obama, no matter what math you chose to go by. It's the people, silly.  That is who you needed to listen to.
There is some polling evidence today that Clinton is enjoying a post-PA boost, and she is leading in an Indiana survey released this morning. Also, she polls much better than Obama in the latest general election poll from PA. Full roundup: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2008/04/friday-polls-will-clinton-get-post-pa.html
I'm pretty surprised that there hasn't been more of this. I mean, these Clinton supporters have to see the writing on the wall. What are they waiting for?
YEA!!!
Good news.  I hope it does lead to more Clinton
supporters recognizing the inevitability of the math in
Obama's favor.  The trouble is the media does not
jump on these stories as readily as it does the Pastor
Wright nonsense. I guess it will take a real knockout
punch in NC to get more supers to move over to
Obama and end this disaster which is killing the
Democratic Party.  Off the subject, but pregnant
Norah O'Donnell is absolutely glowing these days.
She certainly makes watching this fight
much more enjoyable. I think she is one of MSNBC's
best.

Nora!  
Writing is on the wall. Anyone who is paying close attention knows that Hillary Clinton has virtually  zero chance of getting the nomination. After the Pennsylvania "win" she is in worse shape than she was before it.   Before the victory, she had to win over 60% of the remaining delegates, now she has to win over 70% of the remaining delegates.  Unless whe wins this thing fair and square (per the rules she agreed to in advance of the election), the african american population will bail on the democratic party - for good reason.  Superdelegates will not let this happen.  Hillary could have done it if she ran a competent campaign from the get-go, she could have made a fine president, but she was outsmarted and outclassed by Obama and his team.    
De-funding would seem more of an immediate concern to the Clinton campaign than the slow loss of superdelegates.  Obama is already able to open more than twice as many campaign offices in North Carolina, and his media buy will be multiples of her's.  Whether the PA victory, significant in terms of popular vote margin if nothing else, will overcome a developing "cash on the barrelhead" mentality among restive vendors to her campaign in the remaining states remains to be seen.  
I'm not sure if we should trust this defector
Come on over, you are welcomed here.  No Fuzzy Math, No Dirty Tricks and some real change.
I think anybody with any morals should leave the Clinton Campaign.  Hopefully this person won't have to endure a personal character assassination, like Governor Bill Richardson did.
Great news in a tense time.  I hope he can take Obama in hand and get him to be increasingly specific about why it matters to Hispanics, older women, Catholics, blue collar workers that we change the way business is done in Washington.
Just watch them all defect from 'The Dark Side', as I've come to call it.  When you consider this with Clyburn's comments that came out today, it just becomes more and more clear that she is only staying in for the sheer fact of her and her husband's egos.  Its starting to be embarrassing for them.  Read more on the subject from today's Politico: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9862.html . It gives a great view on what's in the minds of the remaining undeclared Supers on Capital Hill.
This is great news. I hope more of the "hillraisers" see the light.
Ship is sinking........  rats are starting to desert the ship......  couldn't happen to a "nicer" person...
he will no doubt be deem a judas and will go from a "hillraiser" to just go to hell!!!!!
It appears that Hillary was correct -- the tide is turning.
I wonder how this defector would react if Hilar gets the nomination.
By the way, Hispanics have a mind of their own. They don't necessarily go by endorsements. There is no way Obama would get the support of the Hispanic community despite this development.
http://www.geekarmy.com/geeks/Jeremiah-Wright-Operates-on-Lyndon-Johnson.html

We will NEVER measure up to Him...I'd be proud to drink of this man's cantene...!!!
Score one more for the Vultron force
I hope more will come over and help us win the general election.
I would imagine being associated with the Clinton clan must be horrific. I understand that people were not allowed to make eye contact with her when she was the first lady.  So, then, why do they stay? Well, consider this.....If that's how you are being treated on the inside by someone who is supposedely on your side it must be so much worse on the outside separate from the Clintons who love you. Hip, Hip Hooray for Guerra-Mondragon who had a tremendous breakthrough this week.  
How will she ever pay for the infomercial to answer those 14,000 questions in NC?
The insiders that matter already know that Clinton is BSing them with her fuzzy math.  They didn't need re-convincing. Don't worry.  But the staff switch is gratifying nonetheless.
People of conscience can no longer support Mrs. Clinton. Why on earth would we want to trade a bald-faced liar in cowboy boots for a pathological liar in high heels? The Bosnia flap is just the visible tip of the proverbial iceberg where the Clintons are concerned. Think about it: would Bill Clinton have ever been elected had there been an Internet in 1992 that functioned like ours today? These Clintons can't seem to help themselves. They have become so accustomed to lying to suit their ends that they apparently can't tell the difference between their so-called "mis-spokes" and the truth. Fortunately for our country, the vast majority of us can tell the difference and simply will not stand for it anymore. Sorry, Hillary, this 59-year-old white feminist will see a female president make history. That female president will NOT be Hillary Clinton.
They are jumping off her campaign like fleas off of a dying dogs back!

I love it!

Way to go Obama!
Does anyone in the media realize that most voter under the age of 35 don't know the beginning of Hillary Clintons controversies and scandals that plagued her in the 1990's.  People now under the age of 35 were more than likely not following politics back then and haven't heard about these scandals and negative baggage the Clintons carry with them.  The media seems to be assuming everyone knows all about the Clintons, but with a large percentage of new and younger voters coming out this year, it is a media responsiblity to inform these voters about Clinton's past and her associations just like they have hammered on Obama.  
Great news for Sen. Obama.  If this isn't a sign of what a terrible campaign Hillie is running I don't know what is.  She's going to really be screaching for more debates(free air time)now.  Like Bill Richardson it's good to see there are people not intimidated by the power corrupt Clinton duo...watch your back, though, Mr. Ambassador.
Another Clinton supporter sees the writing on the wall that Hillary will not win.  Kudos to Guerra-Mondragon for making a courageous decision and for risking a "Judas" backlash from Carville.

Go Obama!
This is the most effective kind of rebuttal to Geoff Garin's laughable piece in the WaPo this morning. Most of the supers and others who have endorsed Obama have cited Hillary's Rovian tactics as one of the reasons for their decision. Has anyone coming out for Hillary said the same about Obama's campaign?
Ouch. That one has to hurt, particularly on the heels of the NYT un-endorsement over campaign tone, and the Clinton camp's response in the Post.
This is great news.  I've been hearing from others around me that they are beginning to get totally turned off to this election because of Cllinton's negative tone.  Hopefully others will start sending Hilary the message, tone it down or we're toast come Nov.
LOL this is so funny if Hillary says she is ahead than why are people comming over to Obama's Team and not hers. Also why dose she keep losing super delegates and Obama hasn't lost any.
Is his position on the campaign just to raise money or does he have another job? How important would he be for Obama? Thanks for any info on these questions.
Hillary does not care about defection.  She will STEP on ANY toes that get her way---BLINDLY trying to grasp her goal. Hillary feels, with help of specific news reporters and surrogates, she would be able to literally SNOW the American people (JUST) long enough to get their votes.  Unfortunately THAT took a little longer than expected.  NOW her most "reliables" are are afraid they'll be labeled -----shhhh (cynical).  So, yes they MUST defect if they expect the respect from colleagues in the future.
Nice to hear some good news.  Obama is the answer to our nation's woes, if for no other reason than he's articulate and determined.  We've not had an articulate leader for quite a long while.

Facts are facts; Hillary lied about her Bosnia experience and we spend more time on Rev. Wright?  That seems like an embarassingly bad choice for MSNBC.
It's amazing how many members of the Democratic Party have chosen not to matter despite Hillary "In Wonderland" Clinton's campaign to prosecute the notion a black man can't win in America.
Ah, Judas.  Jesus loves you too.

Welcome aboard,Amb. Guerra-Mondragon!!
Kudos to Senor Guerra-Mondragon for having the courage to retaliate against the shameful Clinton campaign tactics..... Is it "karma" time, finally?    
I hope more people move to Obama. I am so tired, disgusted and disappointed in Hillary's tactics and lies. I am a 60 year old white female. I would have loved to vote for a woman president. But not THAT woman. To people who believe Hillary is "tough," let me just say that nastiness is not the same as real strength! I believe Obama has genuine strength of character and it is about time we voted in a person like that!

Si podemos!  I won't be swayed by Hillary's negative tactics.  I continue to support one of the biggest grassroots campaigns in my lifetime, and hope that this will convince hispanics the U. S. over to support Obama too.
Go Obama....
That's bad news for Clinton. How does she explain why one of her own major fundraisers defects to the "unelectable" guy's camp?  Pretty embarrassing.
As a former Clinton contributor I was recently solicited to email my thoughts to Geoff Garin, Clinton's new Chief Strategist….some kind of outreach program, I assume.

Here is some of what I wrote:

Dear Geoff:

Drop out. That would be my advice. Your team put up a good fight but it's over. You're actually making a lot of us very tired.

Have your candidate make her speech after the next primaries thanking the wonderful people of NC & IN  - and the entire country - and then have her throw her support to Senator Obama for unity's, her Party's and America's sake. She could go out on a high note (possibly even a winner in Indiana).

This would instantly restore her greatly diminished credibility and help get back the support she has lost within the party and the Senate and become a true leader in helping possible new President Obama to shape and pass legislation. Eventually she can replace Harry Reid (this might be good for you and Howard Wolfson going forward as well).

Otherwise, she walks away from this, still the loser, but with culpability (deserved or not) for damaging what had been shaping up as a transcendent Democratic year, albeit one in which she is no longer the person to bring this agenda home.

It's too late for her to become the nominee in any real world scenario other than one which would be so bitterly divisive that's the thought alone is horrific. Make a rousing endorsement speech for Senator Obama. Those negatives will get cut in half, Bill's legacy may eventually be restored and her successful future will be assured.

Gary - from Chicago
These are the stories the media should be reporting instead of non-issues like Rev Wright.
Let's hope this is the beginning of an exodus of major supporters away from the Clinton campaign before they destroy what's left of the Democratic Party.


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