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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



May 6: Turning Indiana blue?

Posted: Monday, April 28, 2008 9:10 AM by Domenico Montanaro

INDIANA: Could Indiana go blue, really? A poll out this week showed Obama beating McCain and Clinton tied with him there. The Boston Globe looks at the possibility: “Long an afterthought in presidential politics, Indiana Democrats -- who haven't delivered their state in the general election since 1964, and haven't had a meaningful say in picking their party's nominee since 1968 - see the growing excitement over the contest between Clinton and Barack Obama as an opportunity to build up muscle in places where the party's national reach had atrophied.”

NORTH CAROLINA: Some stats for you. First, this one from today's Raleigh News & Observer: "The popularity of early voting can be seen in the numbers. By Friday night, more than 121,500 people statewide had voted at one-stop locations, according to the State Board of Elections, and an additional 10,593 mailed ballots."

And next, check out these stats in Sunday's Los Angeles Times: "As a prelude to North Carolina's May 6 Democratic presidential primary, state voters recently were asked about prejudices. As related by the News & Observer in Raleigh, here's what the poll found: A whopping number -- 91% -- said race would not affect their political decisions, but 54% said they knew someone who would not cast a ballot for a black candidate. A candidate's gender, 79% said, would make no difference to them, but 63% said they knew someone who would not vote for a woman.”

“The survey by Elon University also looked ahead to the fall election, which will feature Republican John McCain trying to become the oldest person elected to a first presidential term. No problem, 66% said; age would not be a factor in their vote. But 44% said they knew someone who would not support someone they viewed as ‘too old.’” Nice to know there are so many open-minded folks in the Tar Heel State. Too bad about so many of their neighbors, though."

Just how badly does the presidential primary hurt the downballot primaries? "In some ways, next week's North Carolina primary is like rock star Bruce Springsteen showing up at a high school battle of the bands. In a very short time, the Democratic presidential duel between Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton has taken center stage. And the dozens of Tar Heel races -- from the statehouse to the courthouse -- have been reduced to a political sideshow struggling to draw voters' attention.”

“The presidential candidates are drawing the huge crowds, dominating the TV ads, vacuuming up the news coverage and driving the voter turnout. State candidates, strategists and party leaders -- some of whom have been carefully planning their campaigns for years -- are scrambling to figure out how to maneuver in a changed political landscape."

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Obama needs to continue to refuse another debate with Clinton before the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. Why? He's debated her 21 times and she only wants the free pubicity and the chance to make him look bad again. He needs to focus on individual citizens who will be voting and he needs to get back to talking about the hope and change he sees for America. He's strongest when giving these speeches.
MSNBC Staff,

I don't understand why you have taken it upon youeself to now throw Barak Obama under the bus...is it because Chris Mathews is dreaming of running as a senator and you think the Clintons will hwelp you?

This is an clip of the Newsweek article that shows everything you have been pushing since a week before the PA primary that you are totally out of touch and have taken a once very valued news organization and have become just like the rest:

Lo and behold, we find that Obama runs exactly as well against McCain as does Clinton (47-44% for him; 48-45% for her) but that the composition of their vote is -- for now -- quite different.

Clinton does do somewhat better among Democrats against McCain than Obama does. She beats McCain 81-13 and he beats him 75-16 among Democrats. But Obama does better among Republicans (with 10-85% versus 7-89% for Clinton) and with Independents, among whom he beats McCain 45-43% while she trails 44-45%.

Importantly, while Clinton runs better against McCain among the poor and working-class whites who comprise about a third of the voters in the general election, Obama runs better against McCain among the middle- and upper-income voters who make up the other two-thirds of the general election voters.

This is what analysts like Ron Brownstein and Peter Hart have been talking about when they say Clinton's base is deeper in the Democratic Party, but Obama's is wider in the general electorate.

Moreover, while Obama's favorable/unfavorable rating is 53-40% among registered voters, and McCain's is 51-41%, Clinton's is a negative 47-49%. And while 40% of the voters say there is no chance they would vote for Obama in November, 43% say the same about Clinton.

On a variety of measures, Clinton does better than Obama among poor and working-class voters, while he does better among middle- and upper-income voters. However, even lower-income white voters say Obama is "down-to-earth" as compared by "elitist" by a margin of 53-25%.

Outside of Keith O., I am turning off all your shows and will not watch them again
One correction, the Elon University Poll does not poll voters.  It polls NC households.
So if Indiana has the potential to go Blue... can somebody please tell me how this extended primary is hurting the party???
Obama can turn Indiana blue but Hillary can't.

Go Obama!
It's not just about Hillary Clinton. But gender has been more of a problem in Presidential politics than race. It's a shame that the media seems to be focussing more on the race of a candidate who happens to be black and white, than on one who happens to be a woman (unless you believe the silly bi-sexual gossips).

When Chisholm ran for President in 1972, she said her gender, not her race was her greatest obstacle to her bid.

There could be quite a few unexpected battlegrounds this time around. The old map is looking obsolete as now we have two major party candidates whom are both liked by independents - and that could make for some unusual dynamics state by state.
Hillary Clinton, forgot something when she recently said if Democrats had the same system as Republicans, she would've been the nominee:

If she ran for the Republican nomination, she'd be out by now, considering that women who have carried her to victory in most states are only a minority in the Republican Party, compared to the Democratic Party, where women constitute up to 60% of the electorate.
I was just thinking, on my way to work, as I passed by the forest of tall pines and aspens, that I am very lucky to live in America.  Then, I saw several deer of to the left side of the road; a little further down the road,  I saw a small group of wild turkeys, which are rarely seen in my neck of the woods.  Finally, I made it to the busy highway, took a left and proceeded past the wondrous snow capped mountains on my right.  As I made my way down the mountain to where I work, I noticed that gas costs had gone up another twenty cents in one day.  I work hard every day, and now I might have to move to the city down below just because of the cost of gas.

Then I thought of the fallen soldiers and their families, and I am ashamed of my petty worries.  How many of us are still mourning the fallen of the Iraq war? Before I left the house, I noticed Obama’s pastor, Rev. Wright was speaking on T.V., and the pundits were already picking apart what he said-- like vultures. He was a marine, after all.  How many pundits have given as much to our country as Rev. Wright?  Not many: unless they to served in the military.  Now, some might argue that they served our country in a different ways, but those of  us who have served in the military know that there is no other job that requires one to sacrifice as much as one does in the military.  Yet, he is a pastor who still tries to do good deeds.  How many of us can say that!  Not too many would be my guess.  

Furthermore, most people have not felt the sting of prejudice, or the constant injustice of being falsely accused because of the color of ones skin, or the constant fear that accompanies such experience.  Until, you have walked in ones shoes, do not throw stones.  Perhaps it is better, far better, not to prejudge others by the color of their skin.  Perhaps it is better, far better, to try to understand the full context of ones life, deeds, and actions before condemning him, based on only a few ill-gotten comments.  Perhaps it is better, far better, to believe in the positive power of our ability to do good deeds, than to sit by and make snide comments out of “bitter” frustration, or simple political convenience. Perhaps it is better, far better, that our politicians think in the commonality of progressing our countries interests without finding continual blame, but instead, in finding continual solutions.  I believe this is Obama’s message, and a powerful message it is.
 
In the landmark civil fraud case against Bill Clinton in Los Angeles, where the former President is charged with defrauding a Hollywood dot com millionaire to help Hillary Clinton obtain more than $1.2 million from him for her 2000 Senate campaign, Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Aurelio Munoz ruled on Friday, April 25 that Hillary Clinton would not be required to testify in sworn deposition as a material witness in the case until AFTER the November election!

In an astonishing ruling by the Judge he ordered that Hillary Clinton would not be compelled to explain in a sworn deposition what her role in the illegal solicitation and cover up of the largest contribution made to her Senate campaign was until after the election. This is the same contribution Hillary denied knowing about or receiving to the Washington Post in August 2000 and in four false FEC reports made from 2000-2006
Eight years of bush should turn all states blue!
obama should be credited if Indiana &/or  North Carolina go to Democratic Party on General election.
Ref the polls, maybe they all know the same person...
After NC and IN, Hillary's chances go from slim to near impossible.

Tell me how spending tens of millions of dollars fighting each other, while McCain builds his war chest is good for the eventual nominee?

I sincerely hope Hillary loses in Indiana.  I know she will in North Carolina - and then she will have to step aside...
...I hope.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
Obama was pulled away from his message.  He will have to get back to it before the GE.

He must stay above the fray and keep pushing his concrete plans that encompass hope and change!  They will try to drag you down to their level and if they do, you can get stuck there permanently.

If Senator Obama really wants to connect with Hillary's constituency he has to do it in person, through mail and on television.  Blue-collar people also like fun and feeling like they are important.  It is the reason that traveling preachers, high-energy evangelistic churches and carnivals are still so popular.  Internet savvy and geriatric don't go together.  Internet savvy and working-class is hit-or-miss.  Debates aren't watched by someone who is working or when it conflicts with prime-time.  They are watched by the Jerry Springer crowd only if they are like the last farce in Pennsylvania.  Debates are useless.  He has basically stated this in his response to Senator Clinton about the debates.  

This is why Senator Obama should go back to big speeches in small towns. If he keeps ignoring her and addressing the people directly he will eat into her base very effectively.  Senator Clinton attacked Barack Obama for his speeches because for him it is a strength and for her it is a weakness, not because they lack substance.  She is incapable of anything high-energy or motivating unless it is in an us-against-them (polarizing) situation.  If Senator Obama really wants to counter back about this one all he has to do is ask "I am able to attract thousands of people to an enthusiastic rally whether it is in a big town or small town, why can't she?  What is it about me that she doesn't have?"

Let her answer the questions.  He doesn't have to anymore.
http://twocanpete.blogspot.com/
Another six months of hate speech and victim theolgy from the black power elites and there will probably be more red states then blue. It's clear that these folks see Obama as a threat to their power base and are doing everything  in their power to torpedo his campaign.
I am an Independent Obama supporetr in Louisiana ans many of us here feel that Obama could also turn Louisina blue, but not Hillary. Obama needs to mention states such as ours when Clinton tries to infer that only " Big States" matter." Also, blue collar voters beware! Why is the GOP trying to practically " endorse" Hillary???? Hmmm, I think they want to run against her
Obama is level headed and smart.  He knows that Hillary is out of money and just wants free press.  21 debates is enough!  No More Debates!!! America is tired already.
Hillary has now morphed into a mid-western gal.  Make sure she knows, here in Indiana, you have to be into wet t-shirts & jello wrestling.
Clinton needs to drop out on June 3rd,She is ruining the party. Obama needs to be the Nominee and start getting ready for the general election.
THERE IS A MAJOR PROBLEM IN THE CLINTON CAMP:

SHE THINKS SHE IS ENTITLED TO BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT. SHE HAS A PROBLEM WITH HER WHINNING AND MOANING AND GROANING ABOUT WHY OBAMA WONT DEBATE HER.

WELL HILLARY ITS YOUR OWN FAULT HE WONT DEBATE YOU, YOU HAVE CAUSED MORE PROBLEMS FOR THE DEMOCRATE THAN ANY ONE RUNNING IN THE HISTORY OF THE DEMOCRATE PARTY. ALL YOU DO IS FEED THE REPUBLICANS WITH YOUR STUPIT COMMENTS ABOUT OBAMA AND THE REPUBLICANS HAVE MORE DIRTY ON YOU AND BILL YOU WOULD NEVER BEEN ELECTED.

LOOK AT THE MONEY YOU TWO HAVE MADE IN ONLY 7 YEARS. EXPLAIN HOW HE MADE HIS MONEY

EXPLAIN HOW HE GOT SO MUCH MONEY FROM DUBAI AND FROM CANADA AND WHAT HAPPEND IN COLUMBIA CONNECTION TO BILL AND HOW YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO BE AGAINST THE TRADE WITH COLUMBIA.

HOW BOUT ALL THE MONEY MADE BY BILL DEALING WITH SOMEONE IN CANADA OVER A DEAL WITH ONE OF RUSSIA EXCOUNTRIES AND BILL HELPING WITH THE DEAL

AND HOW CAN ONE MAN MAKE 500 THOUSAND DOLLARS FROM SOMEONE IN DUBAI WEEK END?

SO GO AHEAD AND PLAY YOUR SILLY GAME BECAUSE ITS OVER FOR YOU HILLARY GO  CRY IN THE CORNER YOU HAVE LOST THE PRIMARY DO TO YOU TWO BEING GREEDY

DiomondE. @ 10:04

"Hillary Clinton, forgot something when she recently said if Democrats had the same system as Republicans, she would've been the nominee"

Hillary counts votes in all other systems except the system in which she competes, Democratic Party system. Instead of winning in the giving system, she wants to pick a system which lets her win. I like her and she is an outstanding person. But I think Obama would be a better  president. As much as I see many people agree with me on this.
Someone on this blog said this...

"I don't understand why you have taken it upon youeself to now throw Barak Obama under the bus...is it because Chris Mathews is dreaming of running as a senator and you think the Clintons will hwelp you?"

Are you kidding? They've been throwing Senator Clinton to the wolves for ages.  It's about time we got the other side. Personally, they're being nice to Obama and if anything you could step it up a bit and examine his life some more so that we can actually get to know what he has done.?

Hillary '08
 If North Carolina is an "open primary" how are we to know who the "democrats" would like to see as their candidate?  If Republican, Independents, Libertians, Greens. etc., vote, who are they favoring, how many "democratic delegates" are they helping to elect?  Should the democratic party give them some delegates to the "Democratic National Convention"? Likewise, Texas, Ohio, Virginia. Will all these non-democratic voters stay with the democratic party in Nov.? Or are these the voters who say they will not vote for Hillary because she is a woman or for Obama because he is seen as Afro-American?  Open democratic primaries are ready made foe Rush and Carl Roven! We can expect the usual attacks from the Republicans regardless of who the Demoratic candidate may be, that is a given!
To Diamond

I am a 60 year-old, white caucasian woman.  My objection to Hillary has nothing to do with gender.  I just don't want our first woman president to be elected for that reason, only.  We need to make sure our first is someone with good judgement, maturity, intelligence, dignity, and ethics.  Otherwise, she'll ruin the chances of women of quality who follow.  
please, indiana, give obama the win he deserves and help end this misery we are all suffering right now. this race has gone on long enough!
I guess I don't care what Rev.Wright says or does...though I feel he loves the limelight.  I think the voters are the wisest...they can pick through the sound bites, the media rhetoric (esp. Chris Matthews...now there's an "all about me" kinda guy!)and make their own decisions.  
The great spirit has a plan for everyone.  For Senator Obama, it's to go on to be the President of the United States of America.  For Senator Clinton, it's to go back and finish her term in New York, lose her re-election bid, and possibly go to jail for purjury in the Peter Paul trial.
The great spirit has a plan for everyone.  For Senator Obama, it's to go on to be the President of the United States of America.  For Senator Clinton, it's to go back and finish her term in New York, lose her re-election bid, and possibly go to jail for purjury in the Peter Paul trial.
The great spirit has a plan for everyone.  For Senator Obama, it's to go on to be the President of the United States of America.  For Senator Clinton, it's to go back and finish her term in New York, lose her re-election bid, and possibly go to jail for purjury in the Peter Paul trial.
I agree...I'm boycotting all shows except Keith O.  I love that Keith is bitter and doesn't let anyone else change the way he feels.  In the words of Chris Matthews...HA!
Hillary Clinton made her statement that it took a Clinton to clean up after a Bush and now it will take another Clinton to clean up after this Bush.
That little tale has two sides.  What it means is that should Hillary become Pres., we will end up will more scandals, talk of impeachments, more Whitewater type incidents all followed by ANOTHER BUSH!!!!!
And just what will be accomplished in the time she is Pres. no universal healthcare, more jobs overseas, stronger corporations, more business as usual.  The signs are all there.  The senior advisors, Bill Clinton, Hillary's own background on board of directors of Walmart.  
 
Therefore, this is my theory. I know it is a little “out there” but here it goes.

I noticed Sharpten was stirring up the racial plot, Bill Clinton was saying Obama played the Race Card (when he said nothing), and we also have Rev. Wright back in the picture.  Now, can this all be just coincidence?  We also have most of the major News Media turning on Obama at the same time—coincidence?  In addition, the Republicans and Fox news are just trying to throw wood on the fire—good for them.

However, what I see is this:

If “dirty” Hillary, can make the democratic nomination into a “race” issue where most of the whites for her, she will win.  She knows she is not going to get the black vote, she is behind, so what has she got to lose—except her self-respect?

Moreover, this is why this situation is getting so out of control—the news media are all behind Hillary.  The wealthy people who own the media are now blatantly throwing in their favor with Hillary.  Lou Dobbs, Joe Scarface, even Keith O., all seem to be leaning towards Hillary and doing everything in their credit to discredit Obama.  

The American Public see this; we are not dumb; and we as Why?

Why?  The answer of course comes back to the Race Card.

Why—who has backed Clinton—and it looks like they are going to lose.

Follow the Money and we find the reason to Why?
I'm not sure where to find this poll that shows Indiana "turning blue".  According to Real Clear Politics, the most recent 3 hypothetical general election polls out of Indiana show McCain handily defeating either Democrat.  The 3 polls are from Research 2000, the Downs Center, and Survey USA.  
I see a fair and honest man in Obama but all I see is a fustrated liar in Hilary.  I believe the American people want the fair and honest to be the person running our country.  I do!!!!!!!
If Obama is nominee,  then Indiana will go red.  If Hillary is the nominee, then Indiana will go blue.

Obama is not electable.  

Hillary is right. The DNC needs to change the primary system.  Caucuses should be done away with.
Primaries should be awarded on votes only.  The system the dems have in place is broke and it needs to be FIXED.  
Barack Obama has been handled with "kid gloves" since last year.  Hillary has had to take a great deal of criticism and accusations.  Isn't it obvious by now -- it's not about "race/ethnicity"!  It's about "gender" (Look out -- the "good ole boys" club might be disbanded.
Well, imagine that. a poll shows 91% of voters claim race would not influence their vote, but 54% know someone who would not vote for a black candidate.  Duh! How many people will admit to a pollster they won't vote for a black person?  Apparently, a lot won't, but will vote against that person in the "booth."  If Obama gets the nomination, we Democrats will have succeded in nominating another sure loser, like, e.g., McGovern, Dukakis, and Kerry. We just don't seem to learn, do we?  
P.S. An Associated Press (no friend of Hillary) poll out this morning shows she can beat McCain 51-40 per cent, whereas Obama leads him by 46-44%.  Sad, sad.
James
Garland, Texas
P. S. For the record, caucuses (Obama's strength) do not represent the voting public of a state, but only a small percentage of activists.  There is a real danger of being mislead by the resulsts of these caucuses.
If the media will stop following Rev. Wright around and repeating everything he says it will be better for all of us. People would not go out of their way to hear or repeat some of the things he says if the media would not be all over it. On the other hand Rev. Wright has the right to defend himself and after all it is you the media who gave him a face and voice  and the popularity he has aquired. I hope America is smart enough to know that Rev. Wright is his own person and Obama is not responsible for what this man says or do. Separate Barak from Rev. Wright they are two different persons though their paths have crossed they represent two very different perspectives.    
Senator Clinton has not debated Obama 21 times. They have only debated head to head 4 times. The other times were with other candidates. Obama's refusal to debate in NC and answer the difficult questions in this race should be a red flag to the superdelegates. He will not be able to stick with flowery speaches, make excuses, duck the issues in the general election against John Mc Cain if he expects to win the election.
Robert

I agree 100%.  The only thing that would make me happier than seeing Obama taking the oath of office next January, would be seeing a handcuffed Hillary carted off to prison in a bright orange pantssuit!

I am tired of hearing about race and gender.  Obama has been trying to run a post-racial campaign, yet everyone seems determined to make this all about his race.   Hillary has tried to run a post-gender campaign, but everyone seems to make this all about her sex.  Can we please stop the insanity?

I personally think that when people see racial or gender bias around every corner, it says more about the person seeing the bias than it does about the current world.

Yes, of course some bias still exists.  I should know -- I've been told early in my career that I couldn't do things because of my gender (female).   But things have really changed dramatically in the last 20 years.  When I was in college (a univesity with over 40K people at the time), there were less than 10 females in the entire college of engineering.  The stats were so daunting that it actually persuaded me not to pursue engineering.  It's amazing how different it is nowadays for college students.  We've made great progress.  

The one thing I learned though is it is not helpful to be paranoid about discrimination, whether on the basis of race or gender.    If there is a sinister interpretation and an innocent interpretation of a statement, go with the innocent one.  Even is your paranoia is justified because of real bias, it is not helpful to focus on it.  It only perpetuates it and polarizes the sides.

There are a lot of people who want to move past the color and gender differences, but they don't want to rehash the past either.  All this talk of race and gender is making it very difficult for people to listen to their higher angels.  

So ... please focus on the campaign, the substance, the normal politics and STOP the talk of race, gender, etc.   We don't need to know everyone's own individual past experiences of prejudice to be color and gender blind in the here and now.

To the people screaming about race and gender, please stop.  And to the media, this is a campaign about real issues, so stop making this about tabloid journalism.  We know there are some people who hold prejudice, but if we are to get past the prejudice as a country, we have to focus on what is possible, not the obstacles.  If we had focused only on the obstacles over the past 20 years, we wouldn't have made the progress we have.
One Thing I like is that this is a free country and we can elect officials without war.  Here's a reality check unless Obama loses this race outright and it is given to Hillary based on her "miscalculated math" by the media and back room politics, I can guarantee be any reasonable doubt that John McCain will become the next President.  The African American community who is the most dedicated foundation of the Democratic Party will NOT vote for her and for the time use our Right to "BOYCOTT" our vote to prove that you can not take something without reprisals!!
Well,

As far as I am concerned the fact that Obama is head to head with Hillary after all this race-baiting by the media and the campaigns of both his opponents and their supporters is a very good sign. I believe that any other candidate would have been sunk by all this. However, from the looks of things Obama will hold and then keep moving. You know in Black Jack a draw is a win when you are playing against the house...and here Obama is definitely playing against the house!
Imagine in spite of Dean wanting this nomination over, my Indiana Vote will count! It will count for Clinton as I am convinced the more I hear about Obama, and increasingly difficult questions he is being asked, he lacks the skills to be elected in the General election. Since he doesnt feel a debate is important enough before the Indiana Primary, I hope he doesnt mind if the "Bitter, gun-toting, religious" hoosier's "cling" to Hillary and not him in the Indiana Primary.
Cindi,

Do you actually think that Obama can turn Louisiana or Indiana blue?  Keep dreaming, they will be solid red come November.
Obama is TOAST! He CANNOT win now...he is unelectable. Good thing we caught it now so Hillary can be the nominee and kick some republican butt.
Hillary is the ony candidate that can rescue and unite the democratic base, attract independepend working class Whites, Latinos, Jewish voters, and the 60% of the general election electorate who are WOMEN.  Even if Obama gets a 100% of the Black vote, it is only 14% of the general election electorate. What about white men and young people you retort, whote men will vote for McCain in mass, young people will celebrate until dawn, drink, and smoke and forget to vote. Wake up Superdelegates, Obama NO GANA!


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