May 2008 - Posts
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Out of the day,
Clinton got 87 pledged delegates to
Obama 's 63 for a net of 24. (52.5 to 33.5 out of Florida; 34.5 to 29.5 out of Michigan.)
Obama is now 62.5 delegates away from clinching the nomination with a new magic number 2,118. This is when the nine (cut to 4.5)
Edwards pledged delegates (out of 13) in Florida, who have pledged to vote for Obama, are factored in. Without them, Obama would be 67 away.
Clinton, on the other hand, would need 238 delegates.
NBC NEWS has also now added officially 5.5 more superdelegates for Obama and 7.5 for Clinton (half of 8-6 for Clinton in FL; and 7-5 for her in MI).
Assuming Clinton and Obama split the remaining 86 delegates at stakes in Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana evenly (43 apiece), that would put Sen. Obama 19.5 away from clinching the nomination. (So, for all practical purposes, he would need about 20 superdelegates to hit the magic number.) Clinton would need 195.
PLEDGED: 1712 to 1587
SUPERDELEGATES: 327 to 293
EDWARDS PL. DELEGATES: 16.5 to 0 (adding the 4.5 from Florida)
OVERALL: 2,055.5 to 1,880
From NBC's Chuck Todd Obama actually had the votes to get a 50-50 delegate split out of Michigan -- but by just a vote or two.
However, it was decided to go with the 69-59 split to win a larger majority. That measure passed 19-8.
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Mark Murray Clinton supporters Harold Ickes and Tina Flournoy released this statement; "Today's results are a victory for the people of Florida who will have a voice in selecting our party's nominee, and will see its delegates seated at our party's convention. The decision by the Rules and Bylaws Committee honors the votes that were cast the people of Florida, and allocates the delegates accordingly.
"We strongly object to the committee's decision to undercut its own rules in seating Michigan's delegates without reflecting the votes of the people of Michigan. The committee awarded to Senator Obama not only the delegates won by uncommitted, but four of the delegates won by Senator Clinton. This decision violates the bedrock principles of our democracy and our party.
"We reserve the right to challenge this decision before the credentials committee and appeal for a fair allocation of Michigan's delegates as they were cast."
From NBC's Mark Murray and Ben Weltman
The compromise will give Clinton 34.5 delegates and Obama 29.5 delegates. It would also seat all of Michigan's superdelegates but also give them just half a vote. Moreover, it would make the magic number to clinch the Democratic nomination 2,118.
But Clinton adviser and committee member Harold Ickes strongly disagreed with this compromise -- and said Clinton will reserve her right to take this dispute to the Democratic convention.
"This motion will hijack, hijack, remove four delegates won by Hillary Clinton and most importantly reflect the preferences of 600,000 Michigan voters. This body of 30 individuals has decided that they are going to substitute their judgment for 600,000 voters."
He went on to say, "Hijacking four delegates is not a good way to start down the path of party unity," he said, adding that Clinton reserves her right to take "this to credentials committee."
From NBC's Mark Murray
That measure would net Clinton 19 pledged delegates (Clinton picks up 52.5, Obama gets 33.5, and Edwards 6.5).
In addition, all Florida superdelegates will be seated, but with half a vote each.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Afterwards, Clinton supporters in the audience began chanting, "Denver, Denver, Denver" -- meaning, we guess, that they want to take the challenge to the Democratic convention.
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro The rules committee has come to an agreement on both Michigan and Florida, a rules committee member confirms to First Read. Florida was not a problem during the luncheon meeting, but Michigan was an all together different story.
It looked as if the agreement they were going to come to was going to pass by a razor-thin, one or two person, majority, but they went back because they didn't want that. They wanted a closer show of unaninimity. The rules member is confident 20 or 21 will vote in favor of the agreement, but pro-Clinton members will argue heavily in favor of a hard line regardless.
The deal reached, NBC NEWS has learned, is a 69-59 split with half votes in Michigan. Obama will be guaranteed the two add-on superdelegates. NBC NEWS has not confirmed if the superdelegates will get half or full votes.
Florida will be split by the primary vote and votes will count for half.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones and NBC's Mark Hudspeth Barack Obama resigned his membership at Chicago’s Trinity United Church of Christ, campaign communications director Robert Gibbs confirmed this afternoon.
The resignation came just more than a month after Obama denounced former Trinity pastor and friend the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and days after another long-time Obama associate, the Rev. Michael Pfleger, had delivered a sermon at the church ridiculing Hillary Clinton . Both men's comments were captured on video.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Oh to be a fly on the wall inside the extended "lunch" the rules committee is taking. The scene here is full of speculation and buzz. No one seems to actually know what's going on, and there is hopeful anticipation that the committee will come back with a decision. The longer the members are out, the more possible that reality becomes. Or, the more divided they really are and the less chance something on Michigan is accomplished before late tonight, if not tomorrow or much later. The committee was due back at 4:15 pm ET.
By the way, does this remind anyone of
12 Angry Men , or rather,
30 Angry Men and Women ?
Rules committee members have told First Read they'd like something close to unanimity--a 15-13 vote would not be good, one member told us. It would show yet another sign of a party divided. (15-13 because only 28 are voting members. The two co-chairs do not vote unless there is a tie. Actually, on Florida and Michigan, only 27 would vote, since committee members cannot vote on resolutions from their state.)
Inside the meeting room, onlookers -- guests, members of the media, members of the DNC -- are up chatting and speculating. They are abuzz on the floor and hanging from the balcony, leaning over the railing.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Hillary Clinton is now in her third hour of an old-fashioned Puerto Rican caravan, winding her way through the streets to rally as many supporters as she can before tomorrow's primary.
It's get-out-the-vote like we haven't seen in the States, as the campaign now tells us the entourage has swelled from the dozen cars that gathered in Cataño to nearly 300 going through the outskirts of San Juan.
"This is a very traditional way of campaigning in Puerto Rico," said Kenneth McClintock, president of the Puerto Rico Senate and a co-chair of Clinton's campaign here. "We know it's not done in the states. But Hillary is learning to campaign borriqua-style."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Clinton campaign representatives -- led by Harold Ickes -- held a press conference. Asked if the Clinton campaign was willing to make a concession like the Obama campaign made over Florida's delegation (allowing Clinton to net an extra 19 delegates), Ickes replied, "A concession? Give me a break."
Under that compromise, he said, Clinton would end up losing delegates (if you seat the Florida delegates fully).
Also during the break, committee member Donald Fowler, a Clinton supporter, told First Read that it's "better than 50-50" that a resolution is reached today. Fowler said that the tricky part, as Domenico posted earlier, is how to allocate those Michigan delegates.
*** UPDATE ***
Most on the committee, it seems, are willing to accepts half votes for Michigan and Florida and Florida appears all but done, including apportionment by the primary vote. That we've noted would net Clinton 19 pledged delegates out of the contest. We'll see if the Obama campaign is willing to concede somewhere between the 50-50 split (64-64 halved to 32-32) and the 69-59 (halved to 35.5-29.5) split floated by the Michigan Democratic Party. One thing's for certain, Ickes, Tina Flournoy and Clinton camp appear unwilling to budge.
From NBC's Chuck Todd It's informed speculation, but there is some buzz circulating that the Clinton forces on the Rules committee right now are attempting to convince a majority of the members of the committee to punt the decision on Michigan to the Credentials Committee.
However, there doesn't seem to be a majority on the committee to support the idea of NOT coming to a resolution on Michigan. Florida seems to be a done deal with a small dispute as to whether Superdelegates can be halved or not. But with Michigan, there is just no consensus on the simple issue of whether that state's January result should have any bearing on the allocation of delegates. And without that and with Clinton folks adamant that a 50-50 even split is unacceptable, the state party's 69-59 plan might actually accepted by the rules committee. This is something the Obama campaign isn't happy about at all but they may take it, according to one source, if the Rules Committee makes it crystal clear the January results didn't count, period.
Again, this is informed buzz and, well, anything can still happen; expect a heated debate when the re-convene publicly.
From NBC's Mark Murray Now that all these presentations have been made, the Rules and Bylaws committee members will now go to a private lunch here inside the hotel. Once they return -- at 4:15 pm ET -- debate will occur on Florida and Michigan.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro "My momma taught me to play by the rules and respect those rules. My mother taught me, and I'm sure your mother taught you, that when you decide to change the rules, middle of the game, end of the game, that is referred to as cheatin.'" -- Donna Brazile to former Michigan Gov. Jim Blanchard, who was making the case for the Clinton campaign to get 73 delegates out of Michigan with 55 for uncommitted.
Blanchard responded that he agreed, and that "Hillary Clinton did play by the rules." He added that, "She even went along with the pledge not to campaign there."
---
Of note, when Harold Ickes was yielded time to speak, he said he wanted to comment on what Bonior said, who presented for Obama, committee co-chair James Roosevelt told Ickes the time was for question and answer and that if he didn't have a question, he wouldn't let him speak.
From NBC's Mark Murray David Bonior , a former Michigan congressman who was Edwards' campaign manager and later endorsed Obama , gave the Obama campaign's presentation on Michigan.
He argued that the campaign wants Michigan's delegation seated at the Democratic convention (and is open to penalizing it by giving each delegate half a vote). But he maintained that the delegate allocation should be 50-50 between Clinton and Obama. "This was not a normal primary election, and it did not produce a fair reflection of voters’ preference," he said.
Again, that presentation produced tough questions from Clinton backers on the panel. Elizabeth Smith of DC said she was "puzzled" why Obama and Edwards took their names off the ballot. Bonior replied, "We were following the path based by this committee -- that this would not count."
And Mame Reiley of Virginia said she could be persuaded to awarding Obama Michigan's "Uncommitted" vote -- but not giving him 50% of the delegates. Reiley added that it was important to respect "the integrity of the voters."
Bonior responded: What about respecting the integrity of those who didn’t vote?
From NBC's Chuck Todd John Edwards , tells First Read that Edwards believes that the 40% of Michigan's "Uncommitted" vote should ALL go to Obama .
Obama, Edwards, Biden , and Richardson all removed their names from the Michigan ballot.
From NBC's Mark Murray
State party chairman Mark Brewer said the proposal was based upon the primary (in which Clinton got 55% of the vote and "Uncommitted" got 40%), exit polls (which showed the support breaking Clinton 46%, Obama 37%), and write-in ballots for Obama (which weren't accepted).
"There is a fair way, there is a reasonable way," noted Michigan Sen. Carl Levin , who followed Brewer. "It is a fair path forward.
But both men faced tough questions, especially from Clinton supporters on the panel, who want the January 15 primary to reflect the delegate split. Clinton supporter Tina Flournoy asked why exit polls were being used when they've proven unreliable in the past. Brewer responded, "Because you had an incomplete ballot, which didn’t give us a true reflection" of voter preference.
Elaine Kamarck, another Hillary backer, pointed out that "Uncommitted" has been a preference in past Democratic contests, and that it was problematic awarding those delegates to a candidate who wasn't on the ballot. Brewer answered that this was a "unique and extraordinary" situation. Every bit of evidence in Michigan, he added, was that those uncommitted votes were for either Obama or Edwards.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro The
Obama campaign called for half votes from Florida according to the primary vote. That would net Clinton 19 pledged delegates, something congressman Robert Wexler called a “concession.”
When asked by top
Clinton aide Harold Ickes, also a member of the rules committee, how that would be a “concession,” Wexler shot back, pointing out passionately that those are the same number of delegates Clinton netted out of Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Wexler called for support of the Ausman proposal, at least in part. The Ausman challenge would halve the pledged votes but give superdelegates full votes. Wexler called for superdelegates to also get half votes.
Wexler said the Obama campaign would like to move on in the interest of party unity. But Wexler was questioned by Clinton supporter Alice Huffman pressed Wexler on why Obama camp won’t support full votes. He demurred.
It appears Clinton camp has the support for potentially full votes by the primary voting from at least (and possibly only) four members -- Ickes, Hartina Flournoy (who also pressed Wexler on supporting full votes), Elaine Kamarck as well as Huffman. Kamarck argued on Michigan, in fact, that “uncommitted” is a candidate and delegates for uncommitted should be apportioned to uncommitted.
Allan Katz, wearing an Obama lapel pin, has emerged today as a leading voice for Obama on the rules committee. Also speaking up seemingly in support of Obama were Obama supporter Mark Hines and undeclared rules committee member and DNC Secretary Alice Germond.
*** UPDATE *** NBC's Doug Adams adds that at a press conference after Florida made its case, the Florida delegation acknowledged it would accept pledged and superdelegates being given half a vote, and they, including Ausman himself, welcomed Obama's "concession." But State Sen. Arthenia Joyner continued to insist that the Clinton campaign wants full votes for the Florida delegation.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Doing the math on if FL/MI are halved. FL by the primary vote, MI by the 69-59 argument...
Clinton nets 24 pledged delegates in this scenario. With supers, she nets 26, as now.
MI: 69-59 divide by 2 equals 34.5-29.5 or +5. (Supers: Clinton 7-5 divide by two equals 3.5-2.5. That's +1. Add that in and that's +15. There are 29 supers in MI, so 17 are undecided, so 8.5 undeclared still available if they're half votes.)
FL: 105-67 divide by 2 equals 52.5-33.5 or +19 (Supers: Clinton 8-6 divide by two equals 4-3. That's +1. Add that in and that's +20. There are 26 total supers there, so 12 are undecided, so 6 votes undeclared still available if they're half votes)
* This does not factor in Edwards delegates for Obama in Florida. If they are, and nine of 13 have so far pledged to Obama, then Clinton nets 14.5 out of FL and 19.5 overall or 21.5 with supers.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Bill Clinton said today that he thought there would be an “unusual outcome” to the Democratic primaries, citing the Democratic National Committee meetings in Washington.
“I think that we are going to have an unusual outcome,” he said at a front porch rally here, before describing how Florida and Michigan delegates were “eviscerated” by the Democratic Party."
“And we will see what happens,” he said. “And Hillary’s position has always been that if everybody gets to vote, and everybody’s vote is counted, she would accept the will of the Democrats and those who are legally eligible to participate in that process, that we would unify this party and do our best to win in November.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
Indeed, the tone inside the DNC meeting -- although with frequent partisan applause -- has been respectful and pretty unifying so far.
After Clinton representative Arthenia Joyner argued that 1.7 million Floridians voted and their votes should be heard, DNC committee member Allan Katz of Florida, who is backing Obama, said that everyone there -- Clinton and Obama supporter alike -- could agree with. That drew applause from the whole room.
Katz, however, did get Joyner to admit this point: Had the Florida primary been a sanctioned event, perhaps 3 million would have turned out to vote.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Hillary Clinton , health care is the universal language.
She started her Saturday in the commonwealth here with an event at the San Juan Bautista Medical Center, promising as president to treat local hospitals the same as those on the mainland when it comes to Medicare reimbursements.
“Puerto Ricans pay the same Medicare taxes and deductibles as their fellow United States citizens,” Clinton said. “Puerto Rican hospitals like this one must comply with the same standards. I am the only candidate committed to brining equal treatment to payment rates under Medicare for Puerto Rican hospitals.”
She said she has been involved in Puerto Rican issues “for a long time,” and said she tried to quadruple funding here in the SCHIP bill that was eventually vetoed.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The official said members, as of last night, were close to an agreement on Florida -- halving all delegates' votes by the primary vote.
The details are not locked in stone, but members would like to have a resolution settled by the end of the day.
From NBC's Mark Murray DNC member Jon Ausman is now presenting Florida's challenge. He is arguing 1) that the DNC was wrong to strip the state's superdelegates from the Democratic convention and 2) that Florida's 185 pledged delegates could only be subject to a 50% penalty -- not the 100% one the DNC enacted.
Ausman said his challenge is simply a "vehicle" to deal with the current controversy. And he hopes it can be a "healing process that unifies us and heals us."
"So when we leave this room," he added, "we’re all wearing the same blue jerseys … so we can go after the Republicans who are wearing the red jerseys.”
From NBC's Mark Murray Bill Clinton's Labor secretary, discussed how we all got here: the DNC setting its nominating calendar (allowing IA, NH, NV, and SC to go before February 5); Florida and Michigan violating that window; and then the DNC stripping those states of all their delegates for doing that.
The fundamental question at today's meeting, Herman said, is to revisit that punishment. The automatic penalty, she added, was stripping those states of 50% of their delegates -- but the DNC chose to strip 100%.
"We had many states that wanted to violate the timing," she said. "We needed to send a very strong signal in order to prevent additional states from moving forward .. and to protect the integrity of the rules process."
From NBC's Mark Murray Howard Dean began today's proceedings by saying that the Democrats are going to nominate either the first woman or the first African American as their presidential nominee. And one of them will be the next president of the United States. He also mentioned the 35 million who have participated in the Democratic primaries and also the Dems' special election wins in Louisiana and Michigan. "We are ready to win, and the American people are ready for change. And we will have that change."
He also said the Democrats will be united in the fall, and mentioned what Al Gore had told him after the former Vermont governor's failed White House bid in 2004. Gore told Dean -- who was disappointed from his loss -- "This is not about you. This is about your country."
"This is about restoring American's greatness," Dean told the audience. "That is what this is about."
And he said a goal today was to respect the voters of Florida and Michigan. "They did not cause this problem," he said.
From NBC's Mark Murray Clinton supporters -- had assembled outside the hotel where the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting will take place today.
The protestors were holding pro-Clinton signs, wearing pro-Clinton T-shirts, and chanting "Count all votes! Count all votes!"
As we were walking into the hotel, the crowd erupted in applause as a car pulled up into the hotel's driveway. Who was in the car? Florida Sen. Bill Nelson , a Clinton supporter.
It's going to be an interesting day.
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Chuck Todd It's not even 8am and the Marriott Wardman Park hotel is buzzing with anticipation. At a minimum, today's DNC Rules and Bylaws committee will finally put a period on the saga that has been the Florida-Michigan delegate dispute or as my friends at The Hotline call simply call it: Flor-igan. (As my former HotlineTV partner in crime John Mercurio might admit, though, Flor-igan is no Flohpa, which was Hotline's pet name in '04 for the final 3 battleground states -- FL, OH and PA -- but I digress.)
The posts of First Read have been filled with scenarios and speculation and we'd like to think we've given you all the tools you need today to watch the rulings unfold on live TV (thank you MSNBC!). Go crazy with your own delegate scenarios and please share them with us in the comments section.
But we should step back contemplate one giant fact about today's event: it could be the final piece of evidence for the political world that the Clintons no longer control the Democratic Party. It's actually something many of us realized some time ago but it probably hasn't sunk in yet for Joe and Jane Democrat.
But we are likely to leave this hotel today all realizing that this is Barack Obama's party now. Any ruling that doesn't net Clinton more than 20 delegates and doesn't acknowledge the popular vote results in both Florida and Michigan is going to be seen as favorable to Obama. And all evidence is pointing to a ruling today that ends up favoring Obama.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones KEYSTONE, SD, May 30 -- Barack Obama joked with reporters on a late-night visit to Mount Rushmore National Memorial Friday.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones GREAT FALLS, MT, – Barack Obama told the audience at a rally Friday night that Montana and South Dakota were the last states to vote and that he believed the party would have a nominee once that voting is over.
It's the kind of statement he and his surrogates have been making more overtly in recent days, while still being careful not to speak ill of Hillary Clinton, who remains in the race despite lagging the Illinois senator by every major metric.
"All across the country the American people have said they are ready for change and Montana it is your turn on Tuesday to stand up for a new kind of politics," he said. "Now that doesn’t mean that it’s gonna to be easy. Montana and South Dakota will be the last primaries and I believe this primary season will come to an end and I believe we’ll have a nominee."
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Lauren Appelbaum Pelosi reasserted her opinion that the Democratic nominee must be determined well before the convention, calling it a "scorched-Earth approach" if the party waited until then. Clinton would take the Michigan and Florida issue to the Credentials Committee at the convention, Pelosi said it would be "unfortunate" if that would be the case, but she said she is confident that would not be the case.
"When my colleagues asked me six months ago, when I was saying, when Sen. Clinton was ahead, I think it would be harmful to the party if the superdelegates were to overturn the elected delegate decision. Well, Sen. Clinton was ahead then and everybody thought she would be the inevitable winner. It was OK then; it should be OK now."
"We all have to come together because the American people have to know that the Democratic Party can run its own delegate selection process if they want to know that we can govern America," she said.
From NBC's Mark Murray and NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Obama isn't expected to speak until 7:45 pm ET at a rally in Great Falls, MT. But his campaign has released excerpts of his remarks, which go right after McCain's "pre-surge levels" misstatement yesterday. They also invoke Scott McClellan's new book.
"There are honest differences about how to move forward in Iraq, just like there were honest differences about whether or not we should go to war," Obama is supposed to say. "John McCain was for the invasion of Iraq; I opposed it. John McCain wants to continue George Bush’s war in Iraq indefinitely; I want to end it. So there’s going to be a clear choice for the American people this November."
"But that’s not what John McCain’s been talking about the last few days. He’s been proposing a joint trip to Iraq that’s nothing more than a political stunt. He’s even been using it to raise a few dollars for his campaign. But it seems like Sen. McCain’s a lot more interested in my travel plans than the facts, because yesterday – in his continued effort to put the best light on a failed policy – he stood up in Wisconsin and said, 'We have drawn down to pre-surge levels' in Iraq."
"That’s not true, and anyone running for commander-in-chief should know better. As the saying goes, you’re entitled to your own view, but not your own facts. We’ve got around 150,000 troops in Iraq -- 20,000 more than we had before the surge. We have plans to get down to around 140,000 later this summer -- that’s still more troops than we had in Iraq before the surge. And today, Sen. McCain refused to correct his mistake. Just like George Bush, when he was presented with the truth, he just dug in and refused to admit his mistake. His campaign said it amounts to 'nitpicking.'"
"Well, I don’t think tens of thousands of American troops amounts to nitpicking. Tell that to the young men and women who are serving bravely and brilliantly under our flag. Tell that to the families who have seen their loved ones fight tour after tour after tour of duty in a war that should’ve never been authorized and never been waged."
"It’s time for a debate that’s based on the truth, and I can’t think of anything more important than how many Americans are in harm’s way. It’s time for a debate that’s based on how we’re going to end this war -- not a debate that’s based on raising a few dollars for John McCain’s campaign."
"The American people have had enough spin. Just this week, we were reminded by President Bush’s own former spokesman of how it was deception -- not straight talk -- that misled the American people into war. It’s time to cut through the tough talk so that we can be straight with the American people about a war that’s cost us thousands of lives and hundreds of billions of dollars without making us safer. It’s time to end the political game-playing so that we can finally end this war. That’s what I’ll do in this campaign. And that’s what I’ll do when I’m President of the United States."
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann and NBC's Mark Murray McCain defended himself from Democratic accusations that he misspoke Thursday, when he incorrectly said that the US had "drawn down to pre-surge levels" in Iraq.
Asked in the media avail if he got his facts wrong, McCain replied by stating that US troops levels are down -- but said nothing of pre-surge levels. "We have drawn down three of the five brigades. They’re home. The marines [inaudible] are home. By the end of July, [inaudible] are back. That’s just facts, those are just facts. The surge, we have drawn down from the surge and we will complete that drawdown to the end -- at the end of July. That’s just a factual statement."
He added, "The important thing here is not that three of the five brigades are back, which they are and the others are coming back in July. It’s whether they would have been sent in the first place and succeeded or failed. Sen. Obama said that the effect would be the reverse. So, he has no fundamental understanding of the entire situation that warranted the surge, which led to the success."
But according to NBC's Jim Miklaszewski and Courtney Kube, the US has NOT drawn down to "pre-surge levels" in Iraq -- and they will NOT be at those levels even after the five surge brigades finish redeploying later this summer. The math is a bit fuzzy, but here are the facts: The US now has 155,000 troops on the ground in Iraq, and that is 17 brigade combat teams plus combat support forces. The baseline number of troops, now commonly called the "pre-surge level," was about 132,000 troops, or 15 brigade combat teams, plus the support forces (engineers, medics, cooks, etc).
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones, NBC’s Caroline Gransee, NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann and NBC's Domenico Montanaro Doyle and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry hit back against McCain on comments he made about troop levels in Iraq and his policy for continuing the war there.
Asked at a news conference this afternoon if it was “appropriate” for him to appear in fundraising material alongside Petraeus, McCain responded, “No. It won’t happen again.”
In addition, Kerry called McCain’s request for Obama to go to Iraq an “overt political stunt” that “would have no relevance to real fact finding.” But Kerry recommended Obama take a “serious fact-finding trip” to Iraq. Kerry then charged McCain’s proposed foreign policy as a plan that would neither get the U.S. out of Iraq nor would it strengthen the country. Instead, it would continue the Bush presidency’s failed policy for another four years, Kerry argued.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Jim Blanchard and Florida state Sen. Arthenia Joyner will be presenting the Clinton campaign's arguments at Saturday's DNC meeting.
*** UPDATE ***
"We are hopeful and confident that after hearing all the arguments and hearing all the facts ... that all the delegates will be seated and all of them will have a full vote," Ickes said.
Moreover, the Clinton's campaign general counsel issued a letter to members of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws committee, which takes issue with the DNC analysis suggesting that Florida and Michigan must be penalized by at least 50%. "The RBC," the letter says, "has broad powers to fully reinstate the Florida and Michigan delegations. Rule 20(C)(7) allows the RBC to forgive violations when a state party and other relevant Democratic party leaders and elected officials have taken provable, positive steps and acted in good faith to bring the state into compliance with the DNC’s Delegate Selection Rules."
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Robert Wexler and former Michigan Congressman David Bonior -- who also served as John Edwards campaign manager -- will be the Obama campaign's representatives at Saturday's meeting of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee, the campaign said yesterday.
Both men were on a conference call Wednesday in which campaign manager David Plouffe said he expected the weekend meeting, called to reach a resolution about how to seat Florida and Michigan delegates since the states broke party rules by moving up their primaries, would result in Clinton gaining a "not insignificant" number of delegates and would likely raise the magic number needed for the nomination.
The Clinton campaign has yet to announce whom its representatives will be.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Resolving Florida and Michigan : After 51 sanctioned contests over the last five months, there are just two dates left on the Democratic primary calendar, and they both occur within the next four days. Sunday is primary day in Puerto Rico (where 55 delegates are at stake and where polls open at 8:00 am ET and close at 3:00 pm ET). And on Tuesday, Montana (16 delegates) and South Dakota (15 delegates) hold their contests. But before those dates comes Saturday’s DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting at the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel in DC, where committee members will most likely decide what happens with those Florida and Michigan delegations. Here are two nearly indisputable predictions about Saturday: 1) something WILL be done and 2) the entire delegations from both states will NOT be seated. So the current magic number of 2,026 will not be in effect by Sunday June 1, and we know the magic number will not be 2,210, as hoped for by the Clinton campaign. It's likely to be either 2,118 or 2,131, depending on whether the Rules committee decides superdelegates should be penalized in the same vein as pledged delegates. The question then is how will the Florida and Michigan delegates be allocated. Keep in mind that DNC hard-liners on the Rules committee, who may be the swing vote between the Clinton and Obama forces, are more intent on figuring out a way to punish Michigan more than Florida.
*** Possible scenario I : We’ve hesitated reporting on every rumor we've heard about a potential compromise, but here’s one plan circulating that seems to be gaining momentum: It would halve the votes for all of the Florida delegates, netting Clinton 19 and, more importantly, counting that popular vote. But Michigan's primary results would not be accepted and instead that state's delegates would simply be split 50-50 between Clinton and Obama. All of the delegations, under this compromise, would be seated in full, but each delegate's vote would be counted as 0.5, including the superdelegates. (Keep in mind, when the nine -- cut to 4.5 in this scenario -- Edwards' pledged delegates are factored in for Obama, that reduces Clinton's net to 14.5.) Should this compromise pass, it would mean the new magic number for nomination would be 2,118. And according to our math (bringing Obama’s delegate total to 2,060 with the Edwards delegates, and Clinton’s to 1,876.5), that would put Obama 58 total delegates away from the nomination. Assuming that Obama gets 43 of the 86 remaining pledged delegates from Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota, he would need just 15 more superdelegates to clinch the nomination under this scenario.
*** Possible scenario II : Another resolution would be cutting both state delegations by 50% according to how the primary vote went (and giving Obama Michigan’s uncommitted vote). That would give Clinton a net of 19 in Florida and nine in Michigan for a total of 28. The magic number here also is 2,118, and it would put Obama 62.5 delegates away from clinching the nomination. Assuming Obama splits the remaining pledged delegates, Obama would need 19.5 more superdelegates to clinch the nomination.
*** Possible scenario III : Another scenario floated is a 50% cut of the pledged delegates in both states according to the primary vote, but keep superdelegates at 100%. That would make the magic number 2,131. Obama then would be 65.5 delegates away (and Clinton 242.5). Indeed, the maximum Clinton could pick up as a result of Saturday’s Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting is 91. That’s what Clinton would gain if she gets the delegates seated according to the discounted primary results in Florida and Michigan -- and Obama gets zero out of Michigan, because he doesn’t get any of Michigan’s “uncommitted” vote. If that maximum solution were to happen, Obama’s 161 pledged delegate lead would be cut to 70. But such a scenario at this point seems like, well, a fairy tale. It’s just not going to happen.
*** The agenda : The DNC meeting begins at 9:30 am ET with remarks by DNC chairman Howard Dean and then Rules committee co-chairs Alexis Herman and James Roosevelt. Afterward, Florida’s Jon Ausman presents his challenge (arguing that the DNC was wrong to strip the state of 100% of its superdelegates and more than 50% of its pledged delegates), followed by Florida’s Democratic Party and the Clinton and Obama campaigns. Next, Michigan presents its challenge, followed by the state party and -- once again -- the Clinton and Obama campaigns. Then the committee adjourns for lunch. And after that, the members sit down to reach some type of resolution, which requires a majority of those present of the 30-person panel (13 who back Clinton, eight who support Obama, and nine who are uncommitted, including Herman and Roosevelt; the assumption is that Clinton does not have a working majority). A DNC source tells First Read that the meeting COULD run into Sunday, but they’re hopeful that a resolution is hammered out on Saturday. One other thing to watch: Clinton supporters hold a rally/protest, co-organized by Women Count PAC, outside the hotel beginning at 7:00 am and ending around 4:00 pm ET.
*** Obama’s new pastor problem? So the number of clergymen that McCain and Obama have distanced themselves from now stands at four -- two for each of them. Of course, for Obama, both of his troubled clergymen were a lot closer to him personally than the two McCain had to toss under the bus. Obama’s latest pastor problem comes from Father Michael Pfleger, an Obama friend who said at the very least some unflattering things about Hillary Clinton at Obama’s church this past Sunday. Obama released this statement: “As I have traveled this country, I've been impressed not by what divides us, but by all that that unites us. That is why I am deeply disappointed in Father Pfleger's divisive, backward-looking rhetoric, which doesn't reflect the country I see or the desire of people across America to come together in common cause.” So how big is this for Obama? The timing isn't helpful. Just as Obama is trying to reach out to Clinton supporters, here is a supporter mocking her using some horrendous language. At a minimum, this will likely have some Democrats wondering (and some Republicans hoping) that the 24-7 camera that apparently is running at Obama's church never runs out of memory. Seriously, this only adds to the CW that the Pew poll underscored yesterday, Obama's problems are all personal while McCain's problems are all issue-based and political.
*** One other thought here : While the right will attempt to tie this Jeremiah Wright, perhaps the correct frame here is by connecting it to today’s Boston Globe op-ed by Geraldine Ferraro. Pfleger and Ferraro represent the difficulties in bringing the party together, as the two have voiced the extreme negative views about the other candidate. This will be a challenge for the Democrats in November. McCain’s McClellan problem? The DNC, meanwhile, has released a new Web video linking McClellan -- and his statement about the “propaganda campaign” to sell the Iraq war -- and McCain’s own advocacy for the war. Where we stand heading into the weekend : The chairman of the Texas Democratic Party and his wife, also a DNC member and superdelegate, have now endorsed Obama. This brings Obama to a 200-delegate overall lead. Obama is ahead in pledged delegates per the NBC hard count (1,649 to 1,500), Edwards’ pledged delegates (12-0), superdelegates (323.5 to 284.5), overall delegates (1,984.5 to 1,784.5), the popular vote (16,728,123 to 16,294,435), and the total number of contests won (32 to 18). Note: We’re not including Texas in this contest count, given that Clinton won the primary but Obama won the caucus and netted the most total Texas delegates. A bit more on the popular vote... Without adding Florida and Michigan, as noted above, Obama leads by 433,703 votes. Adding Florida to the mix, he leads by 138,931 (17,304,352 to 17,165,421). And adding Michigan but not "uncommitted," Clinton leads by 189,220 (17,493,572 to 17,304,352). But do note that the "uncommitted" vote was 238,168.
*** On the trail : Clinton heads to Puerto Rico, where she holds an early evening rally in Old San Juan; McCain has a media avail in Milwaukee, WI and then raises money in Mill Neck and Woodbury, NY; and Obama is in Montana, where he attends a rally in Great Falls. Also, Bill Clinton stumps in South Dakota.
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There are 30 members of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, and here’s the breakdown: 13 back Clinton, eight support Obama, and nine are uncommitted, including the two co-chairs, Alexis Herman VA and James Roosevelt. A majority vote of those present is needed to pass a resolution or judgment.CLINTON (13): Hartina Flournoy DC; Donald L. Fowler SC; Jaime Gonzalez, Jr. TX; Alice A. Huffman CA; Harold Ickes DC; Ben Johnson DC; Elaine C. Kamarck MA; Eric Kleinfeld DC; Mona Pasquil CA; Mame Reiley VA; Garry S. Shay CA; Elizabeth M. Smith DC; and Michael Steed MD.OBAMA (8): Martha Fuller Clark NH; Carol Khare Fowler SC; Janice Griffin MD; Thomas C. Hynes IL; Allan Katz FL; Sharon Stroschein SD; Sarah Swisher IA; and Everett Ward NC. UNCOMMITTED in addition to Herman and Roosevelt (7): Donna Brazile DC; Mark Brewer MI; Ralph Dawson NY; Yvonne Atkinson Gates NV; Alice Germond WV; David T. McDonald WA; and Jerome Wiley Segovia VA.
Here are the results of the earlier contests:
The Los Angeles Times has a good primer on the issues at stake this weekend, saying that there are two issues before the Rules committee. “The first involves whether to seat 368 delegates from the renegade states along with 49 superdelegates, and if so, how. Party legal experts issued a memo this week advising that, under party rules, committee members can restore no more than half of the states' convention delegates. So if the panel decided to recognize Florida and Michigan, it could allow the states to send half of their delegates to the convention. Or it could seat all of the delegates and give each half a vote. The second -- and far trickier -- issue is how to divvy up those delegates between Clinton and Obama.”
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The Washington Post has a good piece about the Iraq debate moving to the top of the heap in the fledgling general election. "Both campaigns think the Iraq debate will work to their advantage. McCain and the Republican Party will use it to paint their likely general-election opponent as a foreign policy naif, too weak to defend the country. Obama and his Democratic allies will turn the war into a proxy for their efforts to portray a McCain victory as a third Bush term.”
“But new public opinion polling suggests the war is more a wild card than a slam dunk for either side. While voters still see the invasion of Iraq as a mistake, they are divided about the current course of the war and where to go from here. McCain continues to be favored as the candidate most trusted on the issue -- albeit with a statistically insignificant edge. But most Americans favor Obama's central position, withdrawing combat forces."
The Los Angeles Times picks up on the collective comments from Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and notes the end is near. “Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi are sending public and private messages to superdelegates urging them to make a choice once primary voting ends Tuesday. The push, which began this week, is damaging to Clinton, whose fading candidacy would be best-served by prolonging the contest.”
The New York Times : “‘By this time next week, it will all be over, give or take a day,’ Mr. Reid said in a Thursday appearance at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco, where he was promoting a new memoir.” New York Times solidifies it -- Clinton has become the coolest candidate to drink with. In all seriousness, have folks noticed how many times reporters have included an alcohol detail when covering Clinton over the last few weeks?
South Dakota’s Argus Leader -- the paper Clinton made the RFK remarks to -- backs the New York senator. “[Obama’s] mathematical advantage is considerable. His appeal also is clear, and his campaign has been strong. But Clinton is the strongest Democratic candidate for South Dakota. Her mastery of complex policy detail is broad and deep, and her experience as a senator and former first lady matches that. Measured against her opponent, Clinton is philosophically more moderate. That is likely a good thing for South Dakota.”
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CBN's Brody has a sitdown with McCain senior adviser Charlie Black. Check out how many times Black utters the word "experience" in this one answer: "Senator Obama for all his magnetism and appeal is not very experienced and the experience he has had is that of a sort of a conventional, liberal politician. It's hard to find incidents where he has taken political risks to work across party lines or get things done like Sen. McCain has, but it's most important in the area of national security. We've been debating about a Iran and Iraq with him, and Sen. McCain truly believes that if he had more experience and especially if he went to Iraq and got experience meeting with the generals and the troops and seeing what's going on in the ground maybe he would see we shouldn't pull out of Iraq. But as we say, experience informs judgment and it's hard to have good judgment on national security if you have no experience."
Six times in about 30 seconds.
Did all the big papers agree to write big profiles of McCain today? The New York Times focuses on the period when McCain decided to enter politics. Of particular interest is that his mentor was John Tower and that the early friendships he struck up with then-Sens. Bill Cohen and Gary Hart. Both senators, for what it’s worth, are now reliable Democrats or lean Dem.
The Los Angeles Times looks at McCain's decision to run for office in Arizona
The Boston Globe : “McCain, a 45-year-old former Navy officer and decorated prisoner of war, moved to Arizona -- home to his new wife, Cindy, a Phoenix beer heiress -- with little more than a plan to run for Congress. McCain's inaugural campaign and his first, low-profile term in Congress were crucial to the formation of his political identity, according to a review of McCain's congressional papers made available to the Globe.
CONTINUED >>
CBN's Brody also has a long interview with Obama chief strategist David Axelrod. Here’s Axelrod's opinion on what the turning point was: “It's been a long campaign Dave, so if I, as I go over it, there are many turn- there are many watershed events, but obviously Iowa, the JJ Dinner in Iowa when he had a chance to standup with the other candidates and speak in a fulsome way about where he wanted to leave this country in front of a crowd of 9,000 people. That was his night and it was a great night and it gave us momentum that carried us through to the caucuses - winning the caucuses, but not just winning them, winning them on a day when twice as many people participated as ever before was a hugely important boost for the campaign. I think South Carolina was very important. You know it was a very tough week. We had a very acrimonious debate with Sen. Clinton. There was some ugliness surrounding that week, some questions about whether he could put the coalition together to win, and he ended up winning by 30 points. That was an important event."
The AP : "Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama said Thursday that he was ‘deeply disappointed’ by a supporter's sermon at his church that mocked Hillary Rodham Clinton. The Rev. Michael Pfleger, a Chicago activist, also apologized for last Sunday's sermon at Obama's church, in which he said Clinton's eyes welled with tears before the New Hampshire primary because she felt ‘entitled’ to the Democratic nomination and because ‘there's a black man stealing my show.’”
“In video circulating on the Internet, Pfleger said the former first lady expected to win the nomination before Obama's sudden popularity. ‘She just always thought that, “This is mine. I'm Bill's wife. I'm white.” ... And then, out of nowhere, came “Hey, I'm Barack Obama." And she said, 'Oh damn, where did you come from? I'm white. I'm entitled. There's a black man stealing my show,'" Pfleger said at Trinity United Church of Christ.
The New York Post’s cover : “Judas Priest.”
Obama released this statement: “As I have traveled this country, I've been impressed not by what divides us, but by all that that unites us. That is why I am deeply disappointed in Father Pfleger's divisive, backward-looking rhetoric, which doesn't reflect the country I see or the desire of people across America to come together in common cause.”
Conservative commentator Jennifer Rubin gives the likely conservative CW perspective on this latest preacher issue for Obama, and it's pretty spot on as far as we're concerned:
"People who think no one cares about any of this will yawn. People who view this and say ‘He hangs out with a strange crowd’ will file this away as one more piece of evidence. And lots of Democrats will toss and turn wondering: Who else is out there?"
The Washington Post's Balz believes the people that ought to read the McClellan book first are future White House aides. Forget the stuff that's been written to death about regarding this book. "But at heart, his book is the story of a modest and perhaps naïve political operative caught between personal loyalty and ambition on the one hand, and a crisis of conscience that did not fully flower until after he put distance between himself and his White House days. Critics will easily see this as a combination of cowardice and cashing in, but McClellan offers an explanation that, if not fully plausible, goes some way in accounting for what he has written.”
“As he writes at one point, his views, particularly on Iraq, reflect those of many Americans, who may have had initial doubts about how anxious the administration seemed about going to war but who trusted the wisdom and judgment of the president and an experienced team of advisers. Over time, his -- and the country's -- trust and confidence in Bush and his team have been shattered by what has happened in Iraq. McClellan is honest enough to admit that. If only others in the administration, in real time, had stepped back to ask, and answer, the question: What happened?”
“Why should this book be required reading in the headquarters of the campaigns? The simple reason is that many of the people now staffing the candidates' campaigns share the qualities and traits of a younger Scott McClellan -- caught up in the excitement of a great cause (to elect their candidate president) and now fully knowing what will await if they end up in the next White House as aides to the 44th president of the United States."
The Washington Times wonders what role his mother played in pushing McClellan to the anti-Bush edge. Remember, McClellan's mom, Carole Keeton Strayhorn challenged the establishment Texas GOP in an attempt to knock off Rick Perry.
Potential Obama short-lister Sam Nunn, pens one-half of a New York Times op-ed with Indiana GOP Sen. Dick Lugar. The lead of the New York Times op-ed praises McCain for his comments about working with Russia to prevent the spread of nukes.
The Washington Times reports that Joe Biden "yesterday said his one-time presidential rival Sen. Barack Obama has asked him to ‘play a more prominent’ and ‘deeply involved’ role in his campaign, a signal the likely Democratic nominee is looking to burnish his foreign-policy credentials that Republicans are attacking. Mr. Biden stopped short of endorsing Mr. Obama, but predicted the Illinois senator is likely to emerge as the nominee after the last contests on Tuesday. He also took a few swipes at presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain.”
“‘He has asked me to play a more prominent role – not in an administration, in the campaign – meaning would I be more available, would I travel with him occasionally, and I said once he gets the nomination, if he gets the nomination, then I'll do whatever he wants,’ Mr. Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told The Washington Times yesterday in an interview. ‘I'll do whatever he asks me to do.’”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Obama picked up the support of West Virginia congressman and superdelegate Alan Mollohan . Obama now actually leads Clinton 4-3 in superdelegate endorsements in a state she won by 41 percentage points. Additionally, the Obama supporters are all elected officials, including Sen. Robert Byrd . Gov. Joe Manchin is the only elected superdelegate not to have endorsed yet.
Clinton got Washington state party vice chair Eileen Macoll, which we reported on earlier. In First Thoughts , we mentioned the Obama pick up of Gail Rasmussen from Oregon.The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts:
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Hillary Clinton said that the enthusiasm she's seen among South Dakotans proves that she was right to fight to the bitter end of the campaign calendar.
"A lot of folks said, 'Well, you know, by the time we get to South Dakota and Montana, people are going to be tired of it,'" Clinton said, again quoting unnamed skeptics. "Well, I don't know what they're talking about... I think there is an enormous amount of enthusiasm for this election here in South Dakota, and it's because you're taking our measure and you're trying to decide who you can count on to be your president."
Clinton, who said that politics "can get either silly or complicated," said this nomination "really all does come down to next Tuesday," and pointed to the fact that voters across America have ignored pundits who have called the race over.
"This is the closest election we've had in a really long time," she said. "They've been trying to tell me to stop running since January. Every time they say it, people rebuke it, and keep voting for me. That's what I hope will happen here in South Dakota."
Clinton also argued that she'd be a stronger candidate against McCain , whom she called a "formidable candidate." And for the second day in a row, also she alluded to her travels to Iraq and Afghanistan with him.
"He's a friend of mine," she said. "He is someone whose service to our country I deeply honor... But he is offering the wrong ideas for America."
The rally here was held indoors because of rain. Only some of the crowd was able to fit into the meeting hall where she spoke, and Clinton later greeted some of the overflow outside. "We couldn't get everybody in here," she told the audience. "But I want to take credit for the rain, 'cause I know that's something that everybody is happy to see."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
This plan would halve the votes for all of the Florida delegates, netting Clinton 19 and, more importantly, counting that popular vote. But Michigan's primary results would not be accepted and, instead, that state's delegates would simply be split 50-50 between Clinton and Obama.
All of the delegations, under this compromise, would be seated in full, but each delegate's vote would be counted as 0.5, including the superdelegates.
By the way, should this compromise pass, it would mean the new magic number for nomination would be 2,118.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Clinton gets a Washington state superdelegate -- Eileen Macoll, the state party's vice chair.
Clinton also got the, um, coveted endorsement of Puerto Rican pop singer -- and former soap opera star -- Ricky Martin, five days ahead of the Puerto Rico primary.
"These elections will have historic repercussions both in the United States and the world," Martin said in a statement released by the Clinton campaign. "Senator Clinton has always been consistent in her commitment with the needs of the Latino community. Whether fighting for better education, universal health care and social well-being, as First Lady and Senator from New York -- representing millions of Latinos --she has always fought for what is most important for our families."
Clinton said she was "honored" by the endorsement. "In addition to his great talent, Ricky is committed to improving the world through his philanthropic work, and I am grateful for his support," Clinton said in a statement. "He is a very important voice in the Latino community and together we will work to improve the lives of families and children across the country."
Still waiting on New Kids On The Block and the rest of Menudo .
Martin is not a superdelegate. Today, Obama and Clinton have picked up one superdelegate each.
The NBC NEWS DELEGATE COUNTS: PLEDGED: Obama 1,649 to 1,500
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Hillary Clinton traveling press corps were just alerted that the sign-up page for transportation and hotel rooms was updated for the coming week. Interestingly, it allows us to sign up for travel after June 3, the final primary day -- right up through June 6.
A sign of optimism? A sign she's not giving up anytime soon? "Sign up and see," was all Clinton spokesman Jay Carson said.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro Obama campaign has released a summary of Obama's health records. This comes almost a week after McCain made his health records available to a handful of reporters.
Obama's physician writes that Obama's biggest health risks are his history of smoking and a family history of cancer.
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From NBC's Domenico Montanaro With the primary in Montana just five days away, Clinton is up with her first ad there. "It's time to level the playing field against the special interests," Clinton says as mountainous Montana scenery flits across the screen.
"She's the only one in this campaign who voted against the Bush energy bill against $6 billion to the oil companies," an announcer says, "the only one taking on the insurance companies to guarantee health coverage for every American and she's the one who'll end $55 billion in giveaways to corporate special interests and cut taxes for the middle class instead."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro online clock counting the days since Obama last visited the Middle East country. Then later in the day, the New York Times reported that Obama is considering a trip to Iraq; his campaign, in fact, has been discussing such a trip for weeks. Has McCain boxed Obama in on this issue -- because if he does actually go to Iraq, will it look like McCain’s idea? There are certainly a few other pros to McCain’s line of attack here: It moves the issue terrain to ground on which the Arizona senator is comfortable (Iraq), and it makes McCain look like the knowledgeable and experienced one. “The important thing is for him to go and see the facts on the ground and the success we are achieving,” McCain said yesterday. But there are a couple of cons, too. For starters, this debate will spur news organizations to whip up the video of McCain’s widely panned stroll through that Baghdad market, evidence that politicians don’t always see everything when they visit Iraq. But more important, if Obama DOES go, it could provide him a real commander-in-chief moment. As conservative commentator Jennifer Rubin puts it, “He might be able to … show he is not ‘afraid’ to get out and meet with the troops and commanders. He might even impress some voters that he is fluent enough in national security matters to be a credible commander-in-chief.” Short-term gain for McCain, potential long-term opportunity for Obama? Perhaps.
*** Replaying Clinton’s greatest hits: McCain’s attack on Obama yesterday also included this line: “Sen. Obama is the chairman of important subcommittee that has the oversight of what's going on in Afghanistan. He has not held one single hearing on Afghanistan.” Later in the day, a McCain spokesman released this statement: “In 2004, Barack Obama said he had the same position [on Iraq] as President George W. Bush.” Um, haven't we heard this stuff before -- from Clinton and her campaign? In fact, there is a danger here for McCain in recycling Clinton's greatest hits on Obama over the last several months. For one thing, the attacks seem a bit dated (Afghanistan and the subcommittee?) Two, they didn't exactly work for Clinton, did they? Then again, perhaps they might work better with general election voters. But so far, they haven't been a silver bullet. Some non-connected McCain watchers have been warning the campaign against recycling the same lines of attack on Obama -- don't hit him on the obvious weaknesses (inexperience); instead try and hug him on his supposed strength (non-polarizing) and lay claim to being the, well, reformer with results. But that sounds like Clinton's "solutions" gambit, doesn’t it?
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his first read on what Scott McClellan's new book means for McCain and looks at the Florida and Michigan delegate math ahead of this weekend's DNC meeting. ***
Still dominating the news: Per NBC’s John Yang, as Scott McClellan starts trying to explain his book -- as he did on TODAY this morning -- and as the chorus of Bush loyalists both inside and outside the White House continue their defense, the White House has nothing to try to push this story out of the headlines. Mr. Bush is on the final day of his Western swing, where he has two events: a meeting with the head of the Mormon Church in Salt Lake City and a fundraiser for a Republican House challenger in Kansas, both closed to coverage. He returns to the White House around this evening. McClellan will appear on Olbermann tonight, as well as on Meet the Press on Sunday. This is turning into a five-day news story -- minimum. And that's not just unhelpful to Bush as he attempts to repair his image even a little, but also to John McCain, who doesn't need White House Bush drama eating into his coverage. Also, nevermind how McClellan has stepped on Clinton's final attempt to bring attention to the Florida-Michigan process.
VIDEO: See McClellan's exclusive interview with TODAY's Meredith Vieira. ***
The circus comes to town: Speaking of drama, Saturday's DNC rules committee hearing is promising to be a potential circus, as Clinton supporters appear to be preparing for fairly loud protests -- something the Obama campaign is reminding reporters that they could do but are choosing not to. The Clinton campaign is denying fanning the protest front, but they aren't discouraging the demonstrations either. And then there are the conspiracy theories popping up in the left blogosphere that Republicans will be secretly showing up Saturday in order to cause chaos and make the party look ridiculous on national TV. As for the actual meeting itself, there's one more angle you ought to be aware of: a 50% cut and a halving of the delegates is not the same thing. For instance, if Florida delegates are seated in their entirety, but only have their vote counted as a .5, then Clinton will net approximately 19 delegates out of the state. But if the delegation is cut in half, that's done in every congressional district as well as statewide, then suddenly Clinton's advantage is only a net of six. That's right, the complicated nature of the DNC delegate selection process will be a good reminder to math majors everywhere that a 50% cut is not the same as a halving of an individual number. Go figure...
*** Ron Paul watch: It’s worth noting that the Idaho Republican primary was Tuesday, and Ron Paul got 24% of the vote there. “[I]n Tuesday's little-noticed Republican primary in Idaho, the iconoclastic Texas congressman had his best showing so far…,” the Boston Globe writes, adding, “Paul's showing came despite making only one campaign stop in the state” and that “Paul's supporters have been making waves in state GOP conventions, hoping to secure a speaking role for him, plus a say on the party platform, at the national convention in September.” Uncommitted got 6% in Idaho while McCain got the rest -- 70%.
*** Veepstakes/battleground watch: In today’s veepstakes news, Michael Bloomberg criticizes all three presidential contenders (Clinton, McCain, Obama) for not always standing up to special interests… Joe Lieberman had to step down from the pro-Iraq war group Vets for Freedom because it’s running 527 ads against Obama… Lieberman refused to throw Pastor John Hagee under the bus and will attend the pastor’s summit in July… And don’t forget to check out our GOP veepstakes tournament on MSNBC.com . By the way, not a single one of our business execs will make it past the first round. Also, in state battleground news, a new Michigan poll has McCain leading Obama, 44%-40%, but toss in Romney and Clinton as the McCain and Obama running mates and the result flips with Obama-Clinton leading. Hmmm….
*** The delegate count: Obama picked up four more superdelegates yesterday and one this morning, which brings him within 44.5 of the required 2,026 (which, of course, will likely go up after Saturday depending on how the Michigan and Florida delegations are seated.) The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts: PLEDGED: Obama 1,649 to 1,500; SUPERDELEGATES: Obama 320.5 to 283.5; EDWARDS PL.: Obama 12 to 0; TOTAL: Obama 1,981.5 to 1,783.5.
*** On the trail: Clinton remains in South Dakota, holding rallies in Huron and Watertown; McCain has a town hall in Greendale, WI and fundraises in Milwaukee afterward; and Obama is down in Chicago.
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McCain and the GOP continued to hammer Obama for not visiting Iraq. The LA Times writes, "Speaking with evident condescension, Arizona Sen. John McCain needled Barack Obama on Wednesday by offering to travel to Iraq with the Illinois senator to help him gain a better understanding of the war and the consequences of withdrawing troops. The attack by the presumptive Republican presidential nominee was in line with his campaign's recent attempts to portray Obama as too young and inexperienced to lead the nation.”
“Speaking before a boisterous crowd of 500 who gathered for a town-hall-style meeting here, McCain accused his Democratic rival of ignoring the successes of the U.S. troop buildup in Iraq and suggested that Obama was ignorant of the facts. ‘To say that we failed in Iraq and we're not succeeding does not comport with the facts on the ground, so we've got to show him the facts on the ground,’ McCain said.”
But after this McCain attack came this news from the New York Times’ Zeleny : Obama has been considering a trip to Iraq. “Senator Barack Obama said today that he is considering visiting American troops and commanders in Iraq this summer. He declined an invitation from Senator John McCain to take a joint trip to Iraq, saying, ‘I just don’t want to be involved in a political stunt.’ In a brief interview here, Mr. Obama said his campaign was considering taking a foreign trip after he secures the Democratic presidential nomination. No details have been set, he said, but added: ‘Iraq would obviously be at the top of the list of stops.’”
“For weeks, aides to Mr. Obama have been quietly discussing a foreign trip, but the long Democratic nominating fight has delayed making any concrete plans. Now, with only five months remaining until the general election, it remains unclear whether there will be time to take such a trip. Mr. Obama suggested today that any foreign itinerary would include a stop in Iraq.”
McCain used this news to once again hammer Obama. At an avail yesterday in California, McCain said that Obama taking a trip to Iraq is long overdue, per NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann: “It’s been 871 days since he was there. And I’m confident that when he goes he will then change his position on the conflict in Iraq because he will see the success that has been achieved on the ground.”
NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones notes that Obama's campaign neither confirmed nor denied that he was considering a trip to Iraq. Obama spokesperson Jen Psaki said: "A trip abroad is under consideration. There are no plans at this point." She added that Iraq was a place he would consider.
Obama said this about the issue: "I haven’t seen McCain’s comments today. But I was asked about the Republicans trying to make the issue of frequency of visiting Iraq, and what I said was that the Republicans don’t have a strong position to argue when it comes to substance. Their foreign policy has been a failure over the last eight years. The war in Iraq was a huge strategic blunder, our standing in the world is diminished, we’ve spend hundreds of billions of dollars and lost thousands of lives, Afghanistan is in worst shape than anytime since 2001 and we have Osama bin Laden sending out audio tapes, so it's not surprising they’re not going to want to argue the substance of what’s happened in their foreign policy. They’re going to come up with diversions. But I think the American people are going to be a lot more interested in whether or now we’re focused on the problems."
Both the New York Times and Los Angeles Times note that the Clinton campaign is not discouraging protests on their behalf on Saturday, while the Obama campaign is doing just that. "Clinton loyalists are expected to demonstrate outside the hotel. The Obama campaign has urged its supporters to stand down. ‘We don't think it's a helpful dynamic to create chaos,’ said David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager. ‘In the interest of party unity, we're encouraging our supporters not to protest.’”
Here's more from the Washington Post : "Saturday's pro-Clinton event is being co-organized by the Women Count PAC -- founded by five top Clinton supporters, including longtime friend and fundraiser Susie Tompkins Buell -- and a coalition of disparate other groups working under the umbrella of Count Every Vote '08. Organizers said that they expect people to come from 26 states for the rally, as well as some major celebrity speakers, and that they are receiving logistical assistance or other support from the pro-Clinton United Federation of Teachers and Emily's List.”
“Count Every Vote '08 first came together in mid-March to lobby Democratic superdelegates on behalf of Clinton. Allida M. Black, project director and editor of the Eleanor Roosevelt papers at George Washington University, joined with Tompkins Buell to start Women Count PAC two weeks ago. They raised more than $250,000 and used the money to buy newspaper ads, including ones that ran in the New York Times over the weekend calling on female readers to attend Saturday's rally."
“[T]he Democratic National Committee issued a statement that said the lawyers' memo was not an official recommendation,” the Boston Globe writes. “‘The staff analysis is intentionally neutral; it does not make specific recommendations,’ the statement said. ‘The analysis lays out a rules framework for each challenge, and the issues raised within each challenge. The analysis maintains that the RBC did have proper authority and jurisdiction in imposing the 100% sanction. The RBC had wide latitude in that decision.”
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times seems to be signaling that the end is near. "Clinton was accompanied by a skeleton crew of aides and a diminished press corps Wednesday as she continued to tour some of the remotest parts of America. After a tourist stop at Mount Rushmore, she drove nearly three hours across the desolate Badlands to the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation and made her electability argument to a somewhat bewildered crowd of about 250 people outside the Little Wound School. ‘I believe the electoral votes that I will win make a very strong argument,’ she said. ‘Look at the states I won and will win. These are the states that form the base of a Democratic victory.’”
“But there was also an elegiac tone to some of her remarks. ‘I view my run for president as a solemn obligation,’ she said. ‘I don’t run for president because I need any more publicity. I don’t run for president because I need the adulation or the celebrity. I don’t run for president to live in the White House. That was a wonderful experience, but that’s not why I run. I run because I believe we can do so much better for our country. The unkept promises are corrosive.’”
Clinton offered no clues as to her future after June 3, but she had a reflective tone as she made a rare visit to the back of her campaign plane to chat with reporters at the end of the day yesterday, NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli reports. “You know, I feel so good about the process,” said Clinton, glass of wine in hand. “I feel that this has been a really positive, productive primary season in so many ways. And you know, I put some of that in the memo [to superdelegates] about the numbers of people that have been brought in. Millions of people who have registered who never voted, who never participated.”
The New York Post piles on. In a lighthearted stop at Mount Rushmore at reporters’ behest, the Post puts it all on its cover with a photo of Clinton framed with the presidents on the mountain top and the headline: “Rock Bottom.”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post reports on a potential issue flip by McCain, "A top lawyer for Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign said telecommunications companies should be forced to explain their role in the Bush administration's warrantless surveillance program as a condition for legal immunity for past wiretapping, a statement that stands in marked contrast to positions taken by President Bush, McCain and other Republicans in Congress."
“‘There would need to be hearings, real hearings, to find out what actually happened, what harms actually occurred, rather than some sort of sweeping of things under the rug,’ Chuck Fish, a former vice president and chief patent counsel at Time Warner, said last week at the Computers, Freedom and Privacy conference in New Haven, Conn., according to an audiotape available on the conference Web site. ‘That would be absolutely verboten in a McCain administration.’”
“The comments -- first noted last week on the blog of the technology magazine Wired -- contradict McCain's voting record, and they are almost certain to disrupt negotiations between Democratic leaders in Congress and Bush administration officials, who are seeking blanket immunity for the telecoms' cooperation with the surveillance program."
The AP also fact-checks McCain on nuclear weapons. “John McCain's nuclear proposals are largely in line with those of the unpopular President Bush, and even where the two disagree, the Republican presidential candidate has waffled. Like the president, McCain favors extending arms control deals with Russia, opening strategic nuclear talks with China and pressing on multiple fronts to limit the spread of nuclear arms technologies. The most notable difference is perhaps the Arizona Republican's declaration that he dreams of seeing nuclear weapons eliminated. Yet even on that point McCain equivocated by also stating in his nuclear policy speech Tuesday that ‘we must continue to deploy a safe and reliable nuclear deterrent.’”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post has a story that will keep the McCain and RNC press shops humming today. It's about Obama's lack of policy proposals. "Obama has not emphasized any signature domestic issue, or signaled that he would take his party in a specific direction on policy, as Bill Clinton did with his ‘New Democrat" proposals in 1992 that emphasized welfare reform or as George W. Bush did with his ‘compassionate conservatism’ in 2000, when he called on Republicans to focus more on issues such as education.”
“Obama's campaign is ‘clearly politically transformative, it's clearly from a policy standpoint been cautious,’ said James K. Galbraith, a liberal activist and economist at the University of Texas at Austin who had backed former senator John Edwards in the early primaries.”
More: "David Axelrod, Obama's top political adviser, said that the campaign will devote more staff members to policy (there are now seven) and that the senator's speeches will increasingly highlight his proposals. ‘The next six months is going to be about competing visions for this country,’ he said. ‘Obama is looking forward, and his policies will reflect that.’”
“Obama's domestic policy proposals, including expanding health care to all Americans and offering tax cuts for the middle class while raising taxes for those who make more than $250,000 a year, differ little from those that Clinton and other Democrats have proposed during the primaries. His ideas for solving the nation's housing crisis are similar to those of congressional Democrats, offering aid to people who cannot pay their mortgages and proposing a second economic stimulus package."
For how many months has Obama had to clarify those comments about rogue leaders he'd meet with? The New York Times is the latest to jump on this again. "In an interview on Wednesday, Mr. Obama, of Illinois, sought to emphasize, as he and his aides have done continually over the last few days, the difference between avoiding preconditions for talks with nations like Iran and Syria, and granting them automatic discussions at the presidential level. While Mr. Obama has said he would depart from the Bush administration policy of refusing to meet with certain nations unless they meet preconditions, he has also said he would reserve the right to choose which leaders he would meet, should he choose to meet with them at all.”
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times' Stohlberg notes the campaign against McClellan. "The result was a kind of public excommunication of Mr. McClellan, waged by some of the people with whom he once worked most closely, among them Karl Rove, the political strategist; Frances Fragos Townsend, the former domestic security adviser; Ari Fleischer, Mr. Bush’s first press secretary; and Dan Bartlett, the former counselor to the president. Their cries of betrayal served as a stern warning to other potential turncoats that, despite some well-publicized cracks, the Bush inner circle remains tight. Their language was so similar that the collective reaction amounted to one big inside-the-Beltway echo chamber.”
“All seemed to take their cues from Dana Perino, the current press secretary. Ms. Perino used the words ‘sad’ and ‘puzzled’ to describe the White House response, as if Mr. McClellan had undergone some kind of emotional breakdown, while making the case that if Mr. McClellan had problems with Mr. Bush, he should have raised them while in the president’s employ."
The Washington Post has an interesting nugget regarding the spin being used against McClellan -- that was once used BY McClellan. "When he was press secretary, McClellan made some of the same arguments against other ex-officials that he now faces. In 2004, for example, former counterterrorism adviser Richard A. Clarke published a book sharply critical of Bush's anti-terrorism policies. ‘Why, all of a sudden, if he had all these grave concerns, did he not raise these sooner?’ McClellan said. ‘This is 1 1/2 years after he left the administration… He is bringing this up in the heat of a presidential campaign. He has written a book, and he certainly wants to go out there and promote that book."
New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg hit all three active presidential candidates for their inability to stand up to special interests all the time. “All three are senators. I think if you look at their voting records, all three have shown instances where they have stood up to special interests and, sadly, all three have also signed on to a lot of these special-interest bills,’ the mayor said, though he did not provide any specific examples.”
“Mayor Bloomberg delivered his evaluation at a news conference that followed his keynote address at the World Science Summit, a gathering of scientists, academics, entrepreneurs and government officials at Columbia University. In the address, he challenged Congress to lift all tariffs on biofuels like sugar-based ethanol, which he said is cheaper to produce and generates less carbon dioxide than the corn-based ethanol made in the United States.”
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger Clinton also said winning the popular vote “will prove she’s the popular choice of the Democrats,” despite ending with less delegates than Obama, the former president said in an impromptu press conference on the streets of Old San Juan.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro penned an op-ed in support of the Illinois senator. (Wood Smith is in addition to the two others we named in First Thoughts: Ben Pangelin from Guam and Pat Waak from Colorado. We adjusted the headline to reflect the day's gain.)
The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts:
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Clinton .
So Clinton and her entourage visited the national landmark this morning, surprising some tourists who never expected to see the presidential candidate.
"We got fogged in yesterday, and I'm so glad we did," a North Carolina woman told Clinton.
Clinton stood before the four former presidents and listened in as a park ranger explained some of the history. At one point, she was asked if she could one day picture herself up there. She smirked and shook her head as she contemplated whether to offer a quick soundbite.
"I …" she started to say, before throwing her hands up.
"You think Bill Clinton should be up there?" another reporter asked.
"Why don't you learn something about the monument," Clinton finally said, before walking away to greet some more tourists. (AP's photos of Clinton there.)
Later, a reporter attempted to get a quick reaction from the New York senator to some of the claims in former White House spokesman Scott McClellan's book. But Clinton, who has not held a formal press conference in two weeks, ignored the question.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann McCain went after Obama at a town hall today, asking why Obama would sit down with Iran's president but won't sit down with the leader of our troops.
McCain also hit Obama over his one visit to Iraq and says the Illinois senator has "never seized the opportunity" to meet with Gen. Petraeus except for a hearing in Washington.
McCain argued that Obama has not done enough to learn what's happening on the ground. He read from an Obama campaign statement that dismissed McCain’s offer to visit Iraq together as a "political stunt."
“That is a profound misunderstanding of what's happened in Iraq and what's at stake in Iraq,” McCain retorted.
McCain also picked up a Clinton attack line that Obama has held no hearings on Afghanistan as chairman of a foreign relations subcommittee. Obama is chairman of the subcommittee on European Affairs, which, Clinton argued, could hold hearings on NATO, which has troops in Afghanistan.
*** UPDATE *** The Obama campaign responds: “On the day after the former White House press secretary conceded that the Bush administration used deception and propaganda to take us to war, it seems odd that Senator McCain, who bought the flawed rationale for war so readily, would be lecturing others on their depth of understanding about Iraq,” Obama spokesman Bill Burton said. “Senator Obama challenged the President's rationale for the war from the start, warning that it would divert resources from Afghanistan and the pursuit of Al Qaeda and mire us in an endless civil war. Senator McCain stubbornly insists on pursuing the failed Bush policy that continues to cost so much, while Senator Obama believes it's time to begin a deliberate, careful strategy to remove our troops and compel the Iraqis to take responsibility for their own future.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Hudspeth and Domenico Montanaro The Obama campaign decided to weigh in on the McClellan book. The campaign uses it as another reason to pivot to McCain on foreign policy and to link Bush and the presumptive Republican nominee.
"It's not news that this Administration engaged in spin and deception to lead us into a war that should've never been authorized and never been waged, the only question now is, do we continue George Bush's failed policy in Iraq or do we change it?" Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan said in a statement. "John McCain is promising four more years of the exact same policy in Iraq that asks everything of our brave troops and nothing of the Iraqi government, while Barack Obama wants to begin a phased withdrawal of our troops and refocus our efforts on going after al-Qaeda in Afghanistan."
*** UPDATE *** Bill Clinton said of the book, "I haven’t seen it. I haven’t seen it, but I think, from what I read, it seems to confirm what Joe Wilson has always said about his own experience. And it shows all the more why it’s important that we change the direction of the country and pick the best president. "
From NBC's Mark Murray earlier RNC research memo that listed several of Obama's misstatements and gaffes, the DNC has released its own list for McCain -- what it calls McCain's "Top 10 misstatements and outright deceptions."
1. McCain doesn't even know who is in charge in Iran.
From NBC's Brian Mooar Clinton backer Ed Rendell says he believes Obama is considering her as running mate, and Hillary should take it -- if she doesn't win.
He was asked the question in Arlington, Va., at the end of a news conference on the home foreclosure crisis.
Q: Should Hillary take the VP slot?
Q: You referenced Doris Kearns Goodwin's book.
Q: Was that a hint?
Q: Do you think she should take it?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Obama campaign called for unity at Saturday’s meeting, as aides said they hope avoid a “circus”-like atmosphere. Pro-Clinton protests, however, are expected outside the meeting.
“We are not encouraging our people to gather and protest,” Campaign Manager David Plouffe said in a conference call with reporters, adding this warning shot. “With a click of a mouse in the Mid-Atlantic, we could get thousands of people there. But in the interest of party unity we are not encouraging a protest. We don’t think a scene is helpful as we try to bring the party together.”
The campaign has sent an e-mail to supporters making sure that message is loud and clear, and Plouffe said there will also be a message on the Obama campaign Web site. "We're trying to send a signal that what we don't need is an unhelpful scene here at the close of the nomination fight."
They also attempted to juxtapose their willingness to compromise with the Clinton camp’s hard line on getting the delegates seated 100 percent according to the results of the discounted January primaries in Florida and Michigan. That’s something Plouffe said is “not a position people find terribly reasonable.”
“We don’t think it’s fair to seat them fully,” Plouffe said. “We both played by the rules. We are willing to give them some delegates. They’re out there saying no compromise. We’re saying compromise. And I thnk that’s where most of the party is.”
Obama is on a “healthy moral high ground,” said Obama supporter David Wilhelm, a former Democratic National Committee and Ohio superdelegate. “He’s acting clearly in the interest of promoting party unity. No Obama folks will be protesting. We’re not going to turn this thing into a circus. We’re willing to compromise.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama's side, Hillary Clinton is making what seems to be a final pitch to all superdelegates before the last primary contests that end on June 3.
Her argument: that she's more electable than Obama is.
"Recent polls and election results show a clear trend: I am ahead in states that have been critical to victory in the past two elections," Clinton writes in a letter to these superdelegates. "From Ohio, to Pennsylvania, to West Virginia and beyond, the results of recent primaries in battleground states show that I have strong support from the regions and demographics Democrats need to take back the White House. I am also currently ahead of Senator McCain in Gallup national tracking polls, while Senator Obama is behind him. And nearly all independent analyses show that I am in a stronger position to win the Electoral College, primarily because I lead Senator McCain in Florida and Ohio."
She adds, "In addition, when the primaries are finished, I expect to lead in the popular vote and in delegates earned through primaries. [She is ignoring caucus contests here.] Ultimately, the point of our primary process is to pick our strongest nominee -- the one who would be the best president and commander in chief, who has the greatest support from members of our party, and who is most likely to win in November. So I hope you will consider not just the strength of the coalition backing me, but also that more people will have cast their votes for me."
Clinton concludes, "Finally, I am in this race because I believe staying in this race will help unite the Democratic Party. I believe that if Senator Obama and I both make our case -- and all Democrats have the chance to make their voices heard -- everyone will be more likely to rally around the nominee. In the end, I am committed to unifying this party. What Senator Obama and I share is so much greater than our differences; and no matter who wins this nomination, I will do everything I can to bring us together and move us forward."
"But at this point, neither of us has crossed the finish line. I hope that in the time remaining, you will think hard about which candidate has the best chance to lead our party to victory in November."
In today's earlier conference call, Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson was asked whether the campaign believes Obama is unelectable. Wolfson responded, "Could he win? Of course he could win. But he is currently not winning against John McCain."
"Sen. Clinton is winning and will win."
Clinton's full letter to superdelegates is below...
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Andrea Mitchell Clinton campaign held a conference call with reporters, repeating its claim that it wants nothing less than a 100% seating of those state's delegations to the Democratic convention.
In the call, Clinton adviser Harold Ickes -- who serves on the DNC's Rules committee -- stated: 1) that the primary contests that occurred in those states in January need to be recognized; 2) that the pledged delegates allocated from those contests must reflect those voters' will; and 3) that the states' full delegations be seated at the convention.
"We fully expect that these issues will be resolved on Saturday," Ickes said.
"Resolved in our favor," interjected Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson.
Tina Flournoy, a Rules committee member and Clinton supporter, added on the call: "There is one number we're interested in -- that is 2.3 million people having their votes counted."
Asked during the Q&A session if the Clinton campaign was willing to compromise -- the conventional wisdom is that Florida and Michigan will be punished by having their delegations cut by 50%, a proposal that the Obama campaign seems open to -- Ickes replied, "We are going to go to the committee with our position." He added that 2.3 million voters from Florida and Michigan "cannot be swept aside."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Les Kretman Bush White House:
"Scott, we now know, is disgruntled about his experience at the White House. For those of us who fully supported him, before, during and after he was press secretary, we are puzzled. It is sad -- this is not the Scott we knew."
More from Perino: "The book, as reported by the press, has been described to the president. I do not expect a comment from him on it -- he has more pressing matters than to spend time commenting on books by former staffers."
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama's Auschwitz gaffe, we listed some of Obama's other minor misstatements (saying that JFK had helped bring his father to the US; confusing Sioux City with Sioux Falls; calling Sunrise, FL Sunshine, FL; etc.)
Well, the Republican National Committee has released its own Obama gaffe list, which also includes:
Again, these are minor misstatements. But it's clear that the RNC is trying to build the case that Obama is a gaffe-prone candidate. Of course, the downside to that strategy is that it gives your own candidate -- McCain -- little room for error, too.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Et tu, Scott? The news of Scott McClellan’s new book on President Bush -- first reported by the Politico’s Mike Allen -- guarantees one thing: There is NO CHANCE Bush fixes his perception problems in the public and the media anytime soon. He's a political pariah, pure and simple. In the book, according to reports, McClellan says that Bush “was not open and forthright on Iraq”; that the president sold the war through a "political propaganda campaign"; that he took a permanent campaign approach to governing; and that the White House mishandled Hurricane Katrina, both governmentally and politically. For McCain, the timing of the news of this book couldn’t have been worse. On the very day that the Arizona senator broke with Bush on nuclear proliferation, he not only held a closed-press fundraiser with the president (that produced just one photo-op), but also came news of the McClellan book. Now will come constant cable news chatter about the book, an interview with McClellan himself tomorrow on TODAY, as well as the inevitable questions from the traveling press corps following McCain… Meanwhile, Bush today hits two more fundraisers (in Salt Lake City and Park City, UT) for McCain and the RNC; Romney joins the president at these events.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his first read on how former White House press secretary Scott McClellan's new book may affect McCain's campaign and previews this weekend's DNC Michigan and Florida compromise. ***
Over the top : As NBC’s Tim Russert reported on Nightly News last night, the Obama campaign will claim a majority of all delegates -- whether it’s 2,026, 2,210, or a number in between -- next Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. According to our sources, Obama's been making calls on the Hill this week (the place where more undeclared superdelegates live than any other in the country) in an attempt to gather the number he needs, probably around 45 supers in order to declare Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The campaign is hoarding commitments from undeclared superdelegates to hit these magic numbers once the nominating contests come to a close on June 3. The actual choreography, however, hasn't been agreed to yet; it depends on what happens at Saturday’s DNC meeting. Here’s one scenario: Obama announces enough supers on Monday June 2 to bring him within 10 delegates of the new magic number. Then on Tuesday evening, just as the polls close in Montana, Obama thanks that state for putting him over the top as the small state is one the Obama camp is hoping to put in play for the fall. Sure, it's three electoral votes but every EV may matter if he's got to make up for not winning Florida and (maybe) Ohio.
VIDEO: NBC's Tim Russert offers his analysis on where things stand heading into the June 3 primaries. ***
A blueprint for Saturday? Speaking of Saturday's DNC meeting… A packet sent around to members of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee has some neutral opinions about the various challenges. One thing folks ought to not miss is the fact that the DNC rules had called for an automatic 50% delegate cut for states that violate the window. The Rules committee went beyond that -- which was within its rights -- and took away ALL of the delegates. Doesn't this provide the blueprint for what's likely to happen on Saturday -- a reinstatement of 50% of the delegates in both states? In fact, if we're interpreting this right, and if the Rules committee follows the letter of the law on this issue, they can't reinstate 100% of the delegates because of the initial violation. For those following the FL/MI fight closely, realize that a Florida compromise seems to be fairly easy to come to; frameworks are being developed as you read. But Michigan is the real riddle. The biggest impediment there are those “uncommitted” delegates; If the Rules committee decides to accept the January primary results then it's not clear, via the DNC charter, that it's within the party's rules to assign uncommitted delegates to Obama. Of course, as multiple members of the Rules committee told NBC News, there's such a thing as "political will," which could trump the DNC charter. Oh, the joys of what we'll be watching on Saturday.
*** Obama’s Auschwitz gaffe : For the first time of this budding general election, the GOP blogosphere was running on all cylinders -- er, microprocessors -- when news began to circulate that Obama's claim that his uncle had helped liberate Auschwitz. The rub: The Soviets, not the Americans, liberated the concentration camp. The Obama camp eventually corrected the misstatement -- the candidate's great uncle helped liberate Buchenwald, not Auschwitz. All in all, it wasn't a big story and wasn't near the gaffe that McCain's earlier Sunni-Shiite one was. If you’re going to make a gaffe, you better make sure it’s more truth than lie. And in this case it was. Yet when you consider Obama's other misstatements or exaggerations (JFK helping to bring his father to the US, Sioux City instead of Sioux Falls, Sunshine, FL instead of Sunrise, FL, 57 states), his campaign has to be careful to remember that these types of stories/narratives can often take lives of their own.
*** Veepstakes watch : Not much movement on the veepstakes front today. Charlie Crist was the first of the McCain BBQ guests to break his silence, but he ducked the question shadowing his potential candidacy when asked about social conservative angst over him. Crist ignored the question on Morning Joe and instead touted his Florida record. Meanwhile, Maureen Dowd does a fictional "vetting Bill Clinton" column that includes a script of Obama and Bill Clinton chatting about his business issues and Bill Clinton eventually relenting on the idea of putting HRC on the ticket. Speaking of veepstakes, turnout for the GOP tournament on MSNBC.com is already higher than in many of those caucus states won by Obama. The closest match-ups so far: Powell v. Crist; Barbour vs. Cox; Thompson v. Petraues; Jeb v. Pence; Romney, Thune, Huckabee, Rice and Sanford are the only candidates garnering 70%+. A super flip : In one of the more bizarre superdelegate moves, a super from the Virgin Islands has switched from Obama to Clinton -- after having originally supported Clinton and then switching to Obama. Kevin Rodriguez had been for Clinton early on, then switched to Obama on May 10 and even put out a statement through the Obama camp lauding the Illinois senator’s ability to “connect with Democrats, Republicans and independents.” The Clinton campaign put out just a one-line statement yesterday afternoon; it didn’t tout him as a switch or provide a statement. First Read was unable to reach Rodriguez last night for comment. With 797 superdelegates, none of whom are bound to anything, this is bound to happen. It’s also a reminder that even if a superdelegate puts out a statement in support of one candidate or another, it doesn’t mean they have to stay put. Obama this morning did pick up two more superdelegates: Colorado party chair Patricia Waak and Guam add-on Vicente "Ben" Pangelinan. The counts: PLEDGED: Obama 1649 to 1500; SUPERDELEGATES: Obama 317.5 to 283.5; EDWARDS PLEDGED: Obama 12 to 0; TOTAL: Obama 1,978.5 to 1,783.5. Obama is now 47.5 delegates away from 2,026.On the trail : Clinton is in South Dakota visiting Mount Rushmore and campaigning in Kyle and Rapid City; McCain holds a town hall in Reno, NV and raises money there before heading to Los Angeles for another fundraiser; and Obama has a town hall at an elementary school in Thornton, CO.
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The AP looks at the fight between Obama and McCain among key demo groups, and notes that Obama is competitive among many of the groups the CW says he'll lose. "Polls this month show the Illinois senator leading McCain among women, running even with him among Catholics and suburbanites and trailing him with people over age 65. Results vary by poll for those without college degrees. And though Obama trails decisively with a group that has shunned him against Clinton—whites who have not completed college—he's doing about the same with them as the past two Democratic presidential candidates."
The New York Times examines the judicial-appointment philosophies of Obama and McCain.
NEVADA (5 EVs): The Las Vegas Sun's Jon Ralston curtain-raises McCain's visit to Nevada by writing a column on the history of McCain's support for Yucca mountain. Ralston notes that despite a pledge McCain made yesterday about never opening Yucca, the evidence of the last few years indicates differently. Ralson adds, though, that Yucca is not the voting issue for as many Nevadans as some might think -- or Bush would not have won the state in 2004.
FLOR-IGAN : “Democratic National Committee rules require that the two states lose at least half of their convention delegates for holding elections too early, the party's legal experts wrote in a 38-page memo,” the AP’s Pickler writes. “The memo was sent late Tuesday to the 30 members of the party's Rules and Bylaws Committee, which plans to meet Saturday at a Washington hotel. The committee is considering ways to include the two important general election battlegrounds at the nominating convention in August, and the staff analysis says seating half the delegates is ‘as far as it legally can’ go.” New York Post hears what others are as well: “The Democratic Party is eyeing a compromise plan to settle the divisive dispute over contested primaries in Florida and Michigan in which half the two states' delegates would be seated at the convention, sources said yesterday.” Halving the delegates is what the Republicans did in the first place. The RNC punished several states, including Michigan and Florida for moving up their primaries and they lost half their delegates.
CONTINUED >>
Channeling First Read a bit, Maureen Dowd does one of her fictional conversations -- this one between Obama and Bill Clinton on the rules Obama would have for the former president should he decide to pick Hillary as his veep.
“The former first lady has refrained from criticizing Obama directly in recent weeks as he has built an almost insurmountable lead among the delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination,” the AP’s Fouhy writes. “But without mentioning his name [in Montana], Clinton strongly implied that if the Illinois senator becomes the nominee he could be headed for defeat in the general election. ‘We have not gone through this exciting, unprecedented, historical election only to lose," Clinton told several hundred supporters here. ‘You have to ask yourself, who is the stronger candidate? And based on every analysis of every bit of research and every poll that's been taken and every state a Democrat has to win, I am the stronger candidate against John McCain in the fall.’” AP writes that even though Bill Clinton didn’t technically have the number of delegates needed until June, “he had essentially won the nomination in March 1992.”
The Washington Post writes on the uncomfortable two-day fundraising swing Bush is making on behalf of McCain. "The fleeting public appearances of an unpopular president on behalf of the potential heir to the leadership of the Republican Party underscore the delicate balance for McCain, who is trying to appeal to a restless GOP base that continues to embrace the president while reaching out to moderates and independents who want to move beyond the Bush administration. For now, the senator from Arizona remains locked in a tight race for the White House -- evidence that Americans see him as a brand apart from the GOP.”
Whether McCain can continue soaring above his ailing party, or will find himself crashing down to Earth with it, could determine whether Republicans retain control of the White House next year."
But on a day when President Bush is raising money for McCain, having a lead like this in the New York Times is helpful. "McCain distanced himself from the Bush administration on Tuesday by vowing to work more closely with Russia on nuclear disarmament and to move toward the elimination of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe." More: "But Mr. McCain’s talk of nuclear cooperation with Russia raised questions about how receptive Moscow might be to Mr. McCain if he were elected, when another of the senator’s proposals — excluding Russia from the Group of Eight industrialized countries — seems sure to test relations.”
“Mr. McCain’s remarks were his most extensive as a presidential candidate on nuclear policy and were part of his effort to advance his national security credentials compared with those of Senator Barack Obama. Although Mr. McCain touched on the subject in late March in a major foreign policy address in Los Angeles, his speech in Denver served as a marker of where a McCain administration would stand on nuclear proliferation and arms deals with the Russians."
CONTINUED >>
Obama had to clarify a statement he made on Monday about his uncle's role in World War II, the Washington Post writes. "Speaking in New Mexico on Memorial Day, Obama said a great-uncle had helped to liberate the Auschwitz death camp at the end of World War II. ‘I had a uncle who was one of the, who was part of the first American troops to go into Auschwitz and liberate the concentration camps,’ Obama said… He continued: ‘And the story in my family is that when he came home, he just went into the attic, and he didn't leave the house for six months. All right? Now, obviously something had affected him deeply, but at the time, there just weren't the kinds of facilities to help somebody work through that kind of pain.’”
“That may be a fact, the RNC noted gleefully -- but only if Obama's uncle had served in the Red Army of Joseph Stalin, which liberated Auschwitz on Jan. 27, 1945. Obama's campaign said yesterday that he had erred in naming the camp but not in describing the role of his great-uncle, who partook in the liberation of Buchenwald. ‘Senator Obama's family is proud of the service of his grandfather and uncles in World War II -- especially the fact that his great uncle was a part of liberating one of the concentration camps at Buchenwald. Yesterday he mistakenly referred to Auschwitz instead of Buchenwald in telling of his personal experience of a soldier in his family who served heroically,’ Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said in a statement.”
More: "Obama campaign aides were indignant that Republicans had pounced on what they called an innocent mistake in relating his family history. Tommy Vietor, an Obama spokesman, decried "using the Holocaust and concentration camps as a political football.’”
The Boston Globe : “Republicans tried yesterday to jump on it as a question of Barack Obama's judgment. His campaign chalked it up to an innocent mistake.”
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How bad are things now for President Bush? The presumptive GOP nominee won't even attend multiple fundraisers where Bush will be in attendance (McCain only attended the one that took place in his own home state). Now, Bush's former press secretary has written a tell-all that just, well, trashes the West Wing. The Washington Post: "Scott McClellan writes in a new memoir that the Iraq war was sold to the American people with a sophisticated ‘political propaganda campaign’ led by President Bush and aimed at ‘manipulating sources of public opinion’ and ‘downplaying the major reason for going to war.’”
“McClellan includes the charges in a 341-page book, ‘What Happened: Inside the Bush White House and Washington's Culture of Deception,’ that delivers a harsh look at the White House and the man he served for close to a decade. He describes Bush as demonstrating a ‘lack of inquisitiveness,’ says the White House operated in ‘permanent campaign’ mode, and admits to having been deceived by some in the president's inner circle about the leak of a CIA operative's name."
The New York Times : Mr. McClellan’s book … is the first negative account by a member of the tight circle of Texans around Mr. Bush… He is harsh about the administration’s response to Hurricane Katrina, saying it ‘spent most of the first week in a state of denial’ and ‘allowed our institutional response to go on autopilot.’ Mr. McClellan blames Mr. Rove for one of the more damaging images after the hurricane: Mr. Bush’s flyover of the devastation of New Orleans. When Mr. Rove brought up the idea, Mr. McClellan writes, he and Dan Bartlett, a top communications adviser, told Mr. Bush it was a bad idea because he would appear detached and out of touch. But Mr. Rove won out, Mr. McClellan writes.”
Politico , which broke the news of this book, adds, “Among the most explosive revelations in the 341-page book…:
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has a housing bill sitting on his desk that could have veep implications for him, depending on if he signs or vetoes. Business is watching; so is the Wall Street Journal .
Bloomberg News examines the role ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is playing in the McCain campaign. "Fiorina accompanies McCain from Rust-Belt cities to corporate gatherings. In one week in April, she co-hosted a conference call for reporters previewing a McCain address in Pittsburgh on taxes, then moderated an ‘economic summit’ in Milwaukee, taking questions from leaders in business, education and mortgage lending. She advises the candidate on his economic message, often huddling with him on his campaign plane.
More: "Though her name has been floated as a possible choice to run for the vice presidency, a Cabinet post or other top appointment is more likely, given that she's never run for office. And she doesn't rule out a political run of her own in the future. She half-expected that her foray into politics would make her cynical; instead, she said she's come away with ‘renewed faith in democracy, when you get away from all the stuff that's driven by 24-hour news.’”
One of the unintended consequences of the long Dem primary campaign: the lack of fundraising success by the folks in Denver for the convention. "So far, the Denver host committee is about $15 million short of the $40.6 million it must raise by June 16,” the
New York Times says. “With only $25 million raised so far, the committee is scrambling to offer a new round of special deals for corporate underwriters, as well as to devise a backup plan should the fund-raising fall short and plans for the convention need to be scaled down."
There are a few political stories that we wish we could be spending more time covering. One of them is the surprisingly nasty Dem primary in New Jersey between Sen. Frank Lautenberg and Rep. Rob Andrews. The New York Times has a good piece about how Andrews is being shunned by his colleagues. "While Mr. Andrews sees himself as battling against bullying and threats, his colleagues have a different view, speaking sharply of what they see as ambition and betrayal. Last fall, when all seven of the state’s Democratic House members gathered for Chinese food in Mr. Lautenberg’s Washington apartment, they pledged to support the senior senator.”
“Mr. Andrews was not the only one among them who had shown an interest in replacing Mr. Lautenberg one day. But other members said everyone agreed to put personal ambitions aside. That is, until April, when Mr. Andrews announced that he was running."
Looking for clues on what issues move North Carolina voters? Elizabeth Dole, who has suddenly found herself in a much more competitive race than she expected, is out with her first TV ad . From the campaign release to First Read: "The 60 second ad focuses on Dole’s work to deliver for North Carolina the first and only statewide immigration enforcement plan of its kind in the country." The ad features sheriffs from around the state praising Dole of her efforts to help them get more access to federal dollars to help deal with illegal immigration issues.
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann and NBC’s Libby Leist McCain laid out his plan to cut global nuclear proliferation and negotiate the prevention of nuclear testing worldwide.
In calling for a “return” to “a tradition of innovative thinking, broad-minded internationalism,” McCain appeared to be distinguishing his own diplomatic philosophy from that of Bush , whose administration has been roundly criticized for unilateral actions -- especially by the independent voters so crucial to McCain’s success in November.
McCain’s call for diplomacy included his suggestion for “taking another look” at the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and “engaging the world in a broad dialogue” about global terror.
But while his remarks about global cooperation may have cut to the left of Bush’s so-called “cowboy diplomacy,” the Arizona senator’s comments on North Korea represented a harder line than the Bush administration has taken in recent months.
The administration has faced criticism from some conservatives who perceive a softening in the U.S. demands that Pyongyang publicly declare a suspected uranium enrichment program as well as any proliferation activity -- namely with Syria. Some Republicans, including former UN Ambassador John Bolton, have been skeptical of one-on-one talks of the type that Bush envoy Christopher Hill is engaging in this week in Beijing.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro right -wing blogs have been abuzz over Obama's comments yesterday, at a town hall in New Mexico, that his uncle had helped liberate concentration camps, and was among the “first American troops” at Auschwitz. The blogs and the Republican National Committee have hit Obama hard, criticizing him for not knowing his history -- that the Soviets, not the Americans, liberated Auschwitz.
The Obama camp admits the mistake, saying Obama meant Buchenwald, not Auschwitz. “Senator Obama’s family is proud of the service of his grandfather and uncles in World War II -- especially the fact that his great uncle was a part of liberating one of the concentration camps at Buchenwald,” Obama spokesman Bill Burton said. “Yesterday he mistakenly referred to Auschwitz instead of Buchenwald in telling of his personal experience of a soldier in his family who served heroically.”
Here is what Obama said, while talking about post-traumatic stress disorder afflicting veterans, per NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy and NBC's Lauren Appelbaum: “I had a uncle who was one of the, who was part of the first American troops to go into Auschwitz and liberate the concentration camps, and the story in our family was is that when he came home, he just went up into the attic and he didn’t leave the house for six months, right. Now obviously something had really affected him deeply but at that time there just weren’t the kinds of facilities to help somebody work through that kind of pain. That’s why you know the, this idea of making sure that every single veteran when they are discharged are screened for post traumatic stress disorder and given the mental health services that they need, that’s why its so important.”
And here's video .
The RNC wrote this in response: “Barack Obama’s dubious claim is inconsistent with world history and demands an explanation. It was Soviet troops that liberated Auschwitz, so unless his uncle was serving in the Red Army, there’s no way Obama’s statement yesterday can be true. Obama’s frequent exaggerations and outright distortions raise questions about his judgment and his readiness to lead as commander in chief.”
The RNC also provides a link to the Holocaust Museum to show the Soviets liberated Auschwitz.
But in its statement today, the Obama campaign said the candidate’s great uncle, who the campaign says was his grandmother’s brother, was a member of the 89th Infantry Division, which liberated Ohrdruf, a subcamp of Buchenwald. The campaign also provides a link to the U.S. Holocaust Museum, but this a description of the 89th Infantry’s part. It also provided a separate link to the 89th’s role here .
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones McCain -is-the-next-George -Bush argument, Obama used the news that the president will be at a few fundraisers for McCain this week to suggest the presumptive GOP nominee would be a carbon copy of the president on matters from foreign policy to the economy.
Obama contrasted the morning he spent with a Las Vegas area family struggling to make their mortgage payments with McCain’s fundraiser with Bush tonight. And he also made light of the fact that these fundraisers -- the Arizona senator appears with Bush at one out of the three events -- were closed to press.
“I had the privilege of visiting Felicitas and Francisco’s home in Las Vegas earlier this morning. Today, John McCain is having a different kind of meeting. He’s holding a fundraiser with George Bush behind closed doors in Arizona. No cameras, no reporters, and we all know why. Sen. McCain doesn’t want to be seen, hat in hand, with the president whose failed policies he promises to continue for another four years,” Obama said. “On issue after issue, John McCain is offering more of the same policies that have failed for the last eight years. That’s the agenda that he and the president are raising money to support later today.”
A few more than 100 people took part in today town hall on the home mortgage crisis -- a hot topic in a state hit hard by foreclosures. Obama gave an overview of his plans for helping struggling homeowners. He criticized McCain again as weak on the economy and for his proposals for addressing the foreclosure crisis.
“For months, John McCain struggled to come up with a real plan to address the housing crisis, even as millions of Americans faced the nightmare of not being able to make their next payments,” he said. "It took him three tries to come up with the answer for struggling homeowners and he still came up short. And Sen. McCain is so out of touch with the struggles of working people that he gave a speech laying out his economic agenda last week, and he couldn’t even be bothered to talk about the foreclosure crisis that has put so many families on the brink of financial catastrophe and put our economy on the brink or in recession. We’ve had enough of the can’t do, won’t do ,and won’t even try approach from George Bush and John McCain.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger Clinton is always interesting. But nothing like this.
For weeks, a colleague has told me to dread the former president's return to Puerto Rico. Without a press bus or spokesman, our style of being embedded has always been on the fly. We have to drive ourselves to events and race out when he starts to shake hands at the rope line, hoping to get a head start to the next site. Through the winding roads of South Dakota last weekend, we used an outside power outlet at a closed gas station to power our laptops to send video near Dallas, population 141.
Today's schedule requires much the same. But add windy roads, streets with no names and a language we don't speak, and it gets downright difficult.
President Clinton and Chelsea have five events scheduled today. We don't have addresses for all of them, and some are just highway numbers. The streets are built for one-way traffic, but the cars flow both ways, and we seem to be the only ones slowing down to avoid a collision or a fall down a cliff. Finding a Secret Service agent has become the "Where's Waldo" of our day.
CONTINUED >>
What follows is a stop-by-stop diary of Hillary Clinton campaigning in Puerto Rico over the weekend from our campaign reporter who followed Clinton on the trip.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
After a gut-punch of a day Friday, when her comment about RFK's assassination was met with an avalanche of criticism, Hillary Clinton was off to the tropics on Saturday for a long weekend of campaigning in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. With a downsized traveling press corps offset by the friendly greetings of local supporters, Clinton enjoyed a short but seemingly reinvigorating trip, likely one of the last of her campaign.
What follows is a timeline of her weekend, in which she covered every part of the island.
SATURDAY, 4:54 PM -- Hill Force One touches down at the Aguillar Airport, a small landing strip on the Western half of Puerto Rico. Instead of the sunny skies we'd been expecting, Clinton steps off her plane to find a tropical rainstorm, and some wet dignitaries to greet her. As she mingles with them on the tarmac, a young boy offers to hold her umbrella and walk along side her.
SATURDAY, 6:10 PM -- Clinton takes the stage at the Coliseo Municipal in Aguadilla, receiving an enthusiastic greeting from the crowd of a few hundred. "Buenas Noches!" she says, the only time she would venture to speak Spanish. At first she speaks a few sentences at a time, pausing to let a translator interpret for those in the crowd who don't understand. But after a while she seems to grow inpatient with the delay and, perhaps recognizing that many seem to understand her, presses on for the remainder of her speech without interruption.
Her remarks focus on what she says is a long-standing relationship with the island. "I am no stranger to these beautiful islands," she says. It will become a familiar refrain all weekend. She talks about visiting after Hurricane Georges, and lobbying her husband for special disaster relief status. "Puerto Rico had a partner in the White House and that produced results for you," she says.
SATURDAY, 8:09 PM -- The campaign staff and traveling press approach their respective hotels in the town of Isabella, and many lose cellular phone signals. Few seem to mind, and enjoy a tropical drink or two. As it turns out, because most on the mainland have checked out for the holiday weekend, no one misses much.
SUNDAY, 11:36 AM -- Clinton is invited to the lectern at Pabellon de la Victoria, an evangelical church in the town of Hormgueros. It's an evangelical church, one that is growing on an island that is predominantly Catholic. Instead of a solemn service, as she had seen the week before in Kentucky, this one is vibrant, complete with fast-tempo music and a colorful dance troop. Clinton has a big smile as the dancers perform in front of her, at first swaying subtly and then earnestly weaving back and forth and clapping to the beat. "This is the day that the Lord has made, let us be glad and rejoice in it," she says to the crowd. "And this is a church that rejoices."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Obama one more and Clinton one less in each state. In Alaska, Obama picks up a split of 10-3 (instead of 9-4 after he got the two statewide PLEOs at convention). In Colorado, Obama gets a split of 36-19 (instead of 35-20). Obama's pledged delegate lead is now upped to 149, his superdelegate lead moves to 34, and his overall lead stands at a combined 195 (including the 12 Edwards delegates).
Obama, today, has also picked up another superdelegate, Wyoming Democratic Party Vice Chairwoman Nancy Drummond. "My husband was a Marine during Vietnam -- he was one of many vets that has VA Benefits," Drummond said in a statement released by the campaign. "The men and women in the military and their families are giving the ultimate sacrifice now and I support Senator Obama's plan to honor their service by improving their healthcare, taking care of issues related to combat duty and caring for our homeless vets."
She adds, "We have two incredible candidates... . At both our caucuses and our State Convention, the majority said they want Senator Obama to be our Candidate to run for President. So with that being said, while I certainly respect and admire Senator Clinton's tenacity, I have proudly decided to endorse Senator Barack Obama."
The NBC News Delegate Counts:
* Obama is 48.5 from the required 2,026.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Former Admiral and Pennsylvania congressman Joe Sestak , an early and ardent supporter of Clinton’s , said on MSNBC he’d like to see the New York senator be the nominee, but he added, “There are the cold, brutal facts of reality.”
He then pivoted, however, in the same breath to Clinton’s electability argument on the popular vote and her leading McCain (by wider margins than Obama ) in polling in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida (Obama does not lead in Florida, per recent Quinnipiac polls). He brought up Puerto Rico and that potentially 450,000 to 500,000 could come out to vote there. And that even though the race is about delegates, if Clinton could win the popular vote, then perhaps, superdelegates would get behind her as the nominee -- though, of course, that would have to be by overwhelming margins.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann McCain ad "Accountable ," which went up in Iowa earlier this month, will hit airwaves in key battleground states Michigan and Pennsylvania. Focus is the economy.
*** UPDATE *** Clinton is also going up with a TV ad and radio spots and South Dakota, a week out from the Democratic primary there. The TV ad, "Responsibility ," also focuses on the economy -- specifically on the national debt, social security and oil. The radio ad, "Matters," is 60 seconds and starts out similarly to other primary state ads: "In Washington, some people say the presidential primary in South Dakota doesn't much matter. That your voice doesn't really count. But you know what? Tuesday, we can show 'em. We can pick a President." And this: "Stand up for Hillary Clinton. She'll always stand up for us." The ad also echoes some of the economic themes of the TV ad.
Scripts follow:
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Did Hillary stay in too long? Given the thud with which Clinton's RFK flub was received, it's starting to become clear that perhaps she erred in deciding to stay in the race this long. Imagine had she suspended her campaign and still won primaries. Wouldn't that have put her in an even stronger position than now? Obama hasn't run a campaign against her for the last few weeks and, in turn, it's helped Clinton prop up her personal standing. But wouldn't she be winning over the support of some in ObamaNation if she were sort of returning the favor by getting out and suspending the campaign? And that's the rub: At some point for her political future, she has to win back the support of Obama's supporters. And they don't seem to be very forgiving of her right now. The Clinton campaign may believe these folks are being irrational, but it's the state of play right now. It's interesting -- Clinton partisans are mad at a lot of folks, but Obama isn't at the top of the list. For Obama partisans, Clinton (or the Clintons) is at the top of their anger list. As for Clinton, she really hasn't given a good reason for staying in (versus suspending her candidacy while keeping her delegates) for any set of voters other than those folks in Michigan and Florida or for the folks in Puerto Rico. If she were in suspension mode, she could be focusing on legacy restoration. Instead, everything she says is viewed through the prism of angling for a longshot 1% chance at the nomination. Whatever the outcome at this point, Clinton's folks may wish they had suspended their candidacy a few weeks ago. In this case, short-term gain could end up being long-term political pain.
*** Go West, young men: In a few months, we may look back at the schedule this week and realize this was the first official week of the general election. Both McCain and Obama are spending time in battleground states this week. McCain was in New Mexico Monday and attends a town hall tomorrow in Nevada. Meanwhile, Obama also was in New Mexico yesterday and hits Nevada today and Colorado tomorrow. We know there have been whispers that McCain and Obama might travel the country together at some point; looks like the way this week is going, that might have already started. Speaking of the West, the Los Angeles Times has a great stat about the three big battlegrounds (CO, NV, and NM): Kerry lost those three states by a combined 127,000+ votes (just a hair more than his Ohio deficit) and the three states are worth a combined 19 electoral votes (one less than Ohio).
*** Pay no attention to this closed-press event... these aren’t the 'droids you’re looking for: Tonight, President Bush attends a fundraiser for McCain and the RNC in Phoenix. But the event is closed to the press, although McCain and Bush will stand in front of cameras for a photo-op at 9:00 pm ET, well after the nightly newscasts. Then in Utah tomorrow, Bush does two more closed-press fundraisers for McCain -- yet the Arizona senator won’t be in attendance for either one. These Bush fundraisers epitomize this fact: As much as McCain wants to separate himself from Bush (because of his 27% approval rating and Democrats eager to link the two together), McCain still needs the president (to help with fundraising and party stalwarts). President Bush -- you can’t live with him, you can’t live without him…
*** GI John: In his Memorial Day remarks from New Mexico yesterday, McCain addressed the differences he has with the Jim Webb-sponsored GI Bill that passed both the House and Senate overwhelmingly. McCain was respectful to Webb while explaining his problem with the measure (it would entice soldiers to leave the military earlier than necessary). It’s pretty remarkable that a week later, he’s still on the defensive about the bill. Perhaps the scathing New York Times editorial was motivation or perhaps it's grief he could be getting from many veterans groups who are more supportive of Webb's bill than McCain's alternative. But you can say this: No one can accuse McCain of trying to do what's political expedient -- something McCain himself continues to bring up when talking about this bill. McCain could have easily ignored the issue, but he chose to bring it up -- again, setting up what could be more uncomfortable press on this issue if President Bush follows through on his veto threat of the larger bill. By the way, by mentioning Webb in his remarks yesterday, was McCain unintentionally boosting the Virginia Senator's Dem veep standing?
*** Dictating the pace: By the way, in these early days of the general between McCain and Obama, one thing's been clear so far: McCain has controlled the issue debate. Just last night, McCain hit Obama over Iraq, focusing on an issue terrain he'd prefer to fight on rather than the economy. Obama fell into this trap a few times with Clinton during the primaries where it seemed Clinton dictated the issue terrain (think gas tax), even when Obama eventually won that argument with voters. Anyway, McCain offered to travel with Obama to Iraq. It would be an interesting decision if the two did travel together. However, the event would be pure politics, and it also would be a Secret Service and military nightmare. Does anyone in their right mind believe it would be a good idea for the two major nominees to fly into a war zone together?
*** It’s bracket time, baby: Today, MSNBC.com debuts the GOP veepstakes tournament. It's similar to the NCAA basketball tournament (or more appropriately, the NCAA baseball tournament, which begins this week: Go Canes and Longhorns... but we digress). We've picked 32 potential running mates and matched them up in a seeded tournament. You get to vote each week on all the match-ups, and the winners will advance each week with the winner being voted on in the first week of June.. To help explain the tournament, NBC's David Gregory and Chuck Todd do their best Dick Vitale and Clark Kellogg impressions and handicap each week's match-ups for your Web-viewing pleasure. Our favorite First Round match-ups: Meg Whitman (6 seed) vs. Kay Bailey Hutchison (3 seed) and Sarah Palin (4 seed) vs. Rob Portman (5 seed). Both Portman and Whitman get veep shout-outs today in David Brooks’ column . We'll debut the Dem tournament, well, shortly.
*** The delegate count: Over the Memorial Day weekend, Obama picked up six more superdelegates after state conventions in Georgia, Wyoming, Hawaii, and Alaska; Clinton, meanwhile, got one. Here are the counts: PLEDGED: Obama 1,647, Clinton 1,502; SUPERS: Obama, 315.5, Clinton 282.5; EDWARDS PLEDGED: Obama 12, Clinton 0; TOTAL: Obama 1,974.5, Clinton 1,784.5. Obama is 51.5 delegates away from the needed 2,026. Speaking of the delegate count, don't miss the weekend CW-setting poll in Montana showing Obama with a double-digit lead over Clinton. No new public polling in Puerto Rico or South Dakota just yet, but it appears safe to call Obama the favorite in South Dakota as well and Clinton the favorite in Puerto Rico.
*** On the trail: Clinton is in Montana, stopping in Pablo and Billings; McCain, before his fundraiser with Bush in Arizona, campaigns and raises money in Colorado; and Obama is in Las Vegas, where he has a discussion with working families. Also, Bill Clinton stumps in Puerto Rico. Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
The New York Times’ Zeleny notes that yesterday's Memorial Day speeches by McCain and Obama in New Mexico provided a glimpse of the fall debate on Iraq. "Will the Iraq war and the nation’s security once again be the chief concern to voters in the general election? In a 20-minute speech, with the flags of all branches of the armed forces at his back, Mr. McCain made 14 references to Iraq. Later, he invited Mr. Obama to join him on a tour of Iraq. (Mr. Obama did not immediately say whether he would accept.) ‘As long as there is a reasonable prospect for succeeding in this war,’ Mr. McCain said, ‘then we must not choose to lose it.’”
“Or will economic anxieties at home and a fierce disapproval over the direction of the country be of higher concern to voters? In 10 minutes of prepared remarks, Mr. Obama did not mention Iraq, only raising it when someone in the audience spoke critically of the war in a 30-minute question-and-answer session. ‘It’s going to take some work,’ Mr. Obama said, ticking through a lengthy list of domestic challenges awaiting the next president, including health care and improving the quality of life for veterans. ‘It might even take two terms.’”
Per NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann, John McCain didn't mention Barack Obama in his remarks in Albuquerque yesterday, despite a bruising back-and-forth last week over Obama's lack of military experience. But in the afternoon, in an interview with the AP, McCain criticized Obama for failing to visit Iraq since 2006. Asked about comments by Sen. Lindsey Graham, a chief surrogate who criticized Obama yesterday for his lack of understanding of post-surge Iraq, McCain dismissed his rival as an amateur in his understanding and involvement in the conflict. Noting that Obama has not visited the region since before the surge, he said, "He really has no experience or knowledge or judgment about the issue of Iraq. And he has wanted to surrender for a long time."
McCain agreed with Graham's assessment on Sunday's Face the Nation program that he and Obama could visit Iraq together in the coming months. "Sure, it would be fine," he said of a proposed trip to the region together. "I go back every few months because things are changing in Iraq," he said. "I would also seize the opportunity to educate Sen. Obama along the way."
CONTINUED >>
MONTANA (June 3): So the CW is set in Montana, thanks to a Mason-Dixon poll showing Obama holding a double-digit lead there. "Obama leads Clinton by 52 percent to 35 percent among likely Democratic voters, with 13 percent undecided in the poll, which was taken May 19-21. The Democratic primary portion of the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points."
SOUTH DAKOTA (June 3): Speaking of setting the CW, Obama has the support of the state's two most popular Dems (Tim Johnson and Daschle) and Daschle is appearing in a TV ad . In addition, keep in mind that the man behind the successful re-election of Johnson and the near-reelection of Daschle -- Steve Hildebrand -- is on Team Obama.
So what's next for Clinton? The Washington Post seems to pour cold water on the Senate majority leader idea. "The climate on Capitol Hill has changed considerably in the 18 months since Clinton began her presidential campaign. The Senate leadership path that she had once viewed as a viable alternative is now all but blocked. Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.) has gained clout in his role, and he will grow even more powerful if Democrats succeed in expanding their narrow majority in November by up to half a dozen seats. Reid's deputies, Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin (Ill.) and Democratic Caucus Vice Chairman Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.), also have enhanced their status in recent months and are quietly laying the groundwork to succeed Reid whenever he decides to step down.”
“‘Within the caucus, there's strong support for Senator Reid, and those who speculate otherwise don't understand the Senate,’ said Durbin, who was the first senator to endorse Obama. When Clinton returns to her old job, assuming she does not win the nomination, Durbin added, ‘she will be an important part of the future. But I can't tell you that anyone has approached me, or anyone in the caucus, with any specific suggestions about what she would do.’”
The New York Times runs a similar piece that asks: What happens when Clinton returns to the Senate? “While she has received millions of votes, stirred thousands of Americans at rallies, made hundreds of appearances and is just scores of delegates short of her goal, defeat would still return her to the Senate as No. 36 out of 49 Democrats. But the seniority arithmetic is only the beginning. There is also the personal challenge of returning to a club where more Democratic members, some quite pointedly, favored Senator Barack Obama and spurned her. For Mrs. Clinton, who has spent years cultivating friendships and raising money for colleagues, that had to hurt. Though the Senate is a place where rival lawmakers daily work side-by-side, this family feud was more public and pronounced than usual.”
The AP's Woodward writes something of a Clinton obit -- for both of them. "When Hillary Rodham Clinton finally exits the 2008 Democratic presidential race, she will end a decades-long, power-couple streak of unique political energy, savvy ideas, colossal policy flops and raw ambition dressed in pants suits and briefs, not boxers... By now, the Clintons have been assigned mystical qualities of perseverance. The notion that the adventure is over is almost beyond comprehension… With her cachet, not to mention her job in the Senate, Clinton won't drift far from the nation's consciousness. (Nor is Bill likely to get out of the country's face.)… Soon, though, there will be no Clinton running for president or about to. Imagine that.”
CONTINUED >>
Look for the media to play "Where's Waldo" today in trying to catch a glimpse of McCain and Bush together at their fundraiser in Phoenix. The Wall Street Journal : “President Bush and John McCain will appear together at a fund-raiser in Phoenix Tuesday, the first time in nearly three months that the Republican presidential candidate will be seen beside the man he hopes to succeed. With Mr. Bush's popularity at a record low, the McCain campaign has made sure that television footage of the two men together will be minimal. The maneuvering is the latest example of Sen. McCain's aggressive effort to separate himself from the White House, even as he embraces many of the policies that Mr. Bush has promoted throughout his presidency.”
McCain’s “campaign has asked Bush, who will be stumping for the Arizona senator next week, to scale down the events -- and they are planning to move the appearances behind closed doors, according to Politico.com,” the New York Post writes. “The move is intended to curb the negative impact of being associated with the unpopular president while capitalizing on Bush's draw with the conservative base, the Web site reported.”
Here’s a Sunday New York Times piece that generated lots of discussion: “Senator John McCain’s presidential campaign is in a troubled stretch, hindered by resignations of staff members, a lagging effort to build a national campaign organization and questions over whether he has taken full advantage of Democratic turmoil to present a case for his candidacy, Republicans say. In interviews, some party leaders said they were worried about signs of disorder in his campaign, and if the focus in the last several weeks on the prominent role of lobbyists in Mr. McCain’s inner circle might undercut the heart of his general election message: that he is a reformer taking on special interests in Washington.”
On the other hand, conservative commentator Jennifer Rubin makes a pretty good defense of McCain and makes the case that it's Obama who is struggling right now, not McCain. "Now, pundits may be right that the McCain camp has a way to go in sprucing up its money and communications apparatus. He does in fact need a better defined agenda and a ‘narrative,’ as Karl Rove explained on Sunday. Still, with all that, it is hard to make the case that Obama has been improving his standing with the public and surging to a dominating position in the general election since he was crowned the presumptive nominee. It is easy to figure out why. In part, Obama simply does not win the news cycle when the topic is foreign policy, and specifically his own ever-shifting statements. And in part, the Obama-mania novelty is wearing off. (The latest graduation speech sounds eerily reminiscent of a dozen stump speeches we have all heard before.) Finally, it is a truism that the public likes a winner, and the weekly drubbings he has received at the hands of the already declared runner-up have likely dimmed his allure.
CONTINUED >>
The campaign finally got a favor from one of these rogue leaders the potentially presumptive Dem nominee wants to meet with. Fidel Castro attacked Obama for pledging to keep the embargo in place if elected. "In a column published Monday by government-run newspapers, Castro said Obama was ‘the most-advanced candidate in the presidential race,’ but noted that he has not dared to call for altering U.S. policy toward Cuba. ‘Obama's speech can be translated as a formula for hunger for the country,’ Castro wrote, referring to Obama's remarks last week to the influential Cuban American National Foundation in Miami."
More: "Castro said Obama's proposals for letting well-off Cuban Americans help poorer relatives on the island amounted to ‘propaganda for consumerism and a way of life that is unsustainable.’ He complained that Obama's description of Cuba as ‘undemocratic’ and ‘lacking in respect for liberty and human rights’ was the same argument previous U.S. administrations ‘have used to justify their crimes against our homeland.’”
It's possible that Obama body man Reggie Love -- of Duke hoops and football fame -- will become one of the most famous body men of all time once this general election gets into full swing. Here’s a profile of him in the New York Times .
The AP looks at Obama’s fight for Western states. “Obama is signaling, even before the Democratic primary formally wraps up, that he intends to fight this fall for Western states that narrowly went Republican four years ago. New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado aren't definitely Democratic blue or Republican red. Instead, they're known as ‘purple states’ by political junkies. Together, they account for only 19 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. But those votes could be vital in a close race, particularly if Obama's weakness among white, blue-collar voters carries over from the primary race and cuts his chance of winning some other states where Democrats usually do well.”
“Filling in for Sen. Edward M. Kennedy and tying himself to the family's legacy, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama urged college graduates Sunday to ‘make us believe again’ by dedicating themselves to public service.”
As mentioned above, debuting on MSNBC.com is our GOP veepstakes tournament.
The Washington Post's Cillizza notes yesterday’s Bob Novak column, which went after potential Obama veep pick Kathleen Sebelius for her pro-choice abortion stance. Is Novak hinting that a Sebelius pick would fire up the pro-life movement in a way that McCain isn't just yet?
So did the New York Times’ David Brooks make a funny in the lead of his column? Ok, funny for the New York Times op-ed page at least. "My first thought on the running mate question is that to balance his ticket, Barack Obama should pick a really old white general. Therefore, he should pick Dwight Eisenhower. John McCain, on the other hand, needs to pick someone younger than himself. Therefore, he also should pick Dwight Eisenhower."
Here's his Obama short list: "Obama will need a vice president who knows the millions of ways that power is exercised and subverted in Washington… Sam Nunn and Tom Daschle seem to fit the bill. Nunn is one of those senior Democrats (like David Boren and Bob Kerrey) who left the Senate lamenting the dumbed-down nature of modern politics. Daschle was more partisan as majority leader, but he is still widely trusted and universally liked. As experienced legislators, both could take Obama’s lofty hopes and translate them into nitty-gritty action."
As for McCain: "If John McCain is elected, he’ll face a political culture threatening to split at the seams. In defeat, Democrats will be enraged at everything and everybody… McCain will need somebody who radiates calm… McCain seems to be looking at business leaders like Meg Whitman. But among politicos, the shining stars would seem to be Rob Portman and Tim Pawlenty."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Obama picked up six delegates to
Clinton’s one over the weekend. He got one from Alaska (former Gov. Tony Knowles 5/25), Wyoming (W. Patrick Goggles 5/24) and Georgia (Stephen Leeds) and three from Hawaii Brian Schatz -- new HI party chairman 5/25; Kari Luna -- new HI party vice chairwoman, and James Burns -- add on) after state conventions this weekend. Clinton also got one – add-on Verna Cleveland from Georgia.
PLEDGED: Obama 1,647 to 1,502
SUPERDELEGATES: Obama 315.5 to 282.5
EDWARDS PL. DELEGATES: Obama 12 to 0
TOTAL: Obama 1,974.5 to 1,784.5
* Obama is 51.5 delegates away from the required 2,026, according the NBC NEWS counts.
(We are also checking to see if we will adjust Alaska’s count. NBC had a 9-4 split for Obama, but according to
AP , Obama picked up both statewide PLEOs. That would give a 10-3 split there. We will update if adjusted.)
With the Memorial Day weekend upon us, First Read will be taking a much-needed breather before the sprint to the general election, veepstakes, the conventions -- and beyond.
The morning edition (First Thoughts, etc.) will resume on Tuesday. We will update the site as news warrants, however.
Have a happy and safe Memorial Day weekend.
From NBC's Abby Livingston McCain’s tune toward evangelical pastor Rod Parsley has changed in three months’ time.
During the thank you section of a speech in Cincinnati, Ohio on Feb. 26 -- the same Cincinnati event at which a conservative radio host referenced Obama ’s middle name, “Hussein,” three times -- McCain had words of praise for Parsley.
“I'm very honored today to have one of the truly great leaders in America, a moral compass, a spiritual guide, Pastor Rod Parsley, who is here,” McCain said. The Arizona senator then walked over and shook Parsley’s hand. “Thank you for your leadership and your guidance. I am very grateful you are here, sir.”
He continued, “And I want to assure you, he should be talking, not me. But I want to say thank you for being here. I want to thank you, Rod, for your kind introduction.”
But yesterday, per NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann, McCan told the AP, “I believe there is no place for that kind of dialogue in America. I believe that even thought he [Parsley] endorsed me, and I didn’t endorse him, the fact is that I repudiate such talk, and I reject his endorsement.”
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro Hillary -for-veep chatter... The New York Post writes, "Hillary Clinton today brought up the assassination of Sen. Robert Kennedy while defending her decision to stay in the race against Barack Obama . 'My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. I don't understand it,' she said, dismissing calls to drop out."
"Clinton made her comments at a meeting with the Sioux Falls Argus-Leader's editorial board while campaigning in South Dakota, where she complained that, 'People have been trying to push me out of this ever since Iowa.'"
Obama spokesman Bill Burton responded to Clinton's remarks. "Senator Clinton's statement before the Argus Leader editorial board was unfortunate and has no place in this campaign."
NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli notes that Clinton said something similar the day after the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. "Sometimes you gotta calm people down a little bit. But if you look at successful presidential campaigns, my husband did not get the nomination until June of 1992," she said. "I remember tragically when Senator Kennedy won California near the end of that process."
In fact, the specter of assassination was first raised in this campaign on January 8 , when a Clinton introducer, a retired teacher from New Hampshire, brought it up before Clinton spoke. "If you look back, some people have been comparing one of the other candidates to JFK, and he was a wonderful leader. He gave us a lot of hope," the retired teacher said. "But he was assassinated, and Lyndon Baines Johnson actually did all of his work and got both the Republicans and Democrats to pass those measures."
Clinton spokesman Mo Elleithe just said to a group of reporters in South Dakota -- including Memoli -- that this is "one of the more ridiculous" issues that has come up in a long race. The campaign, he said, will soon send out an official comment.
*** UPDATE ***
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy McCain would be a “third Bush term” on Iraq and the economy, but today Obama linked the presumptive GOP nominee and President Bush on yet another issue: Cuban relations.
“Instead of offering a strategy, a strategy for change, [McCain] chose to distort my position, embrace George Bush’s, and continue a policy that’s done nothing to advance freedom for the Cuban people,” Obama said, referring to a speech McCain delivered in Miami earlier in the week. “That’s the political posture that John McCain has chosen, and all it shows is that you can’t take his so-called straight talk seriously.”
How did McCain distort Obama’s position you may ask? “John McCain’s been going around the country talking about how much I want to meet with Raul Castro, as if I’m looking for a social gathering, I’m going to invite him over and have some tea. That’s not what I said, John McCain knows it. After eight years of the disastrous policies of George Bush, it is time to pursue direct diplomacy, with friend and foe alike, without preconditions.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Edwards pledged delegates have pledged to vote for Obama . So far, 12 Edwards pledged delegates have said they will vote for Obama, since Edwards endorsed Obama last Wednesday.
New Hampshire State Sen. Peter Hoe Burling tells NBC NEWS he and Deborah Bacon-Nelson have decided after talking with friends, family and constituents to go Obama "in large part because Obama's willing to not just consider but embrace the kind of fundamental change the country needs to go through. He gets it," Burling said. He added that Edwards' passion in his endorsement for Obama also played a part. (PolitickerNH first reported their endorsements this morning after they announced their intention at Lebanon High School in New Hampshire.)
Burling called Clinton an equally "superb" candidate, but said he believes Obama has the best chance to win in a general election against McCain. He said he "didn't buy" Clinton's latest electability argument, that she's better suited to win the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. He called polls showing that just a "snapshot."
The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts :
* Obama is 57.5 delegates from the 2,026 required.
He went on to draw an effusive comparison of Obama, saying, "Obama's an almost Lincoln-esque figure," Burling said. "He comes to us at a time when the country is badly torn and needs to be brought together. He has the mind and the heart to do it."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Over the past month, the Clinton campaign, its supporters and its surrogates have been using Republicans -- in one way or another -- to make their case that Clinton should be the Democratic nominee. Philadelphia Inquirer supporting their claim that Clinton is winning the popular vote. The column notes RealClearPolitics ’ popular vote totals, in which if Michigan and Florida are included, Clinton leads in the popular vote -- something First Read has noted several times. The writer of the piece notes that this is the “most inclusive count.” But even this writer points out that the counts that include Florida, but not Michigan, “seem more fair.” biography on the Inquirer’s site, notes that he is a staff writer at the conservative magazine, the Weekly Standard. (He also runs this blog .) Huffington Post piece wrote that Sidney Blumenthal -- whom the piece identifies as a senior campaign adviser and helped coin the phrase “vast right wing conspiracy” -- a decade later “is exploiting that same right-wing network to attack and discredit Barack Obama.” The examples include conservative outlets such as Accuracy in Media (AIM), The Weekly Standard, City Journal, The American Conservative and The National Review.
Also just this week, Clintonites -- from Bill Clinton to Terry McAuliffe, to the candidate herself -- cited Karl Rove, of all people, to help make their case that Clinton is the strongest general election electoral map candidate. The L.A. Times (and others) put up the map from Rove’s firm and headlined the development this way: "Breaking news: Hillary Clinton now thinks Karl Rove's a political genius”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Mark Murray Clinton campaign officials Howard Wolfson and Terry McAuliffe tell NBC News that reports of talks between the Clinton campaign and the Obama campaign over a possible vice presidential role are totally false.
Clinton campaign officials are eager to shoot down the reports -- even suggesting they could be deliberate leaks from the Obama campaign to signal that Clinton is ready to give up and cut a deal in order to dry up her fundraising and get superdelegates to declare for him.
Obama spokesman Bill Burton tells First Read that suggestions these leaks are coming from Obama Land are "completely and unequivocally not true." He adds, "We are still in a competitive primary."
Wolfson and McAuliffe both insist that she is not quitting and will campaign through the last primaries on June 3rd -- and until decisions are made on Michigan and Florida. They say she feels to do otherwise would be letting down her supporters. Despite the odds against her getting the nomination, Clinton aides say as long as people are still voting, there is always the chance something will happen and she ends up winning.
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama speaking today in Florida on foreign policy and Cuba, the RNC has released a Web ad whacking him on these issues. The video ends with, "Barack Obama -- naive on national security, not ready to be commander-in-chief."
From NBC's Mark Murray gunning for Hillary to be Obama's running mate, Hotline's Jennifer Skalka raises this question: What about Hillary as Obama's Supreme Court pick.
The pros, per Skalka's piece: "'There is much to be said for selecting a mixture of people with different experiences in the law and political affairs. Clinton has the political experience and the legal experience that would help to diversify the Court. In that sense, I wouldn't think the lack of prior judicial experience should in any way be seen as a detriment,' said [Mark] Agrast, an expert in constitutional law."
Also: "[W]ith just one woman -- 75-year-old Ruth Bader Ginsburg -- now serving on the nine-member Court, a President Obama would no doubt feel considerable pressure to nominate another. 'The fact is, it's disgraceful for the Supreme Court to have only one woman,' [Laurence] Tribe said. 'It was frankly disgraceful for there to be [only] two women when Sandra Day O'Connor was there.'"
The cons: "'In this time, when the Senate has become so polarized and the parties are at loggerheads, you put yourself in a vulnerable position as president, particularly a new president, nominating somebody who does not have a strong record of judicial experience,' said David Yalof, a University of Connecticut political scientist and the author of Pursuit of Justices: Presidential Politics and the Selection of Supreme Court Nominees."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro *** All about McCain: For the first time in quite a while -- and, as it just so happens, the day before the Memorial Day weekend -- the political world today focuses squarely on McCain, whether it's the release of his medical records, the veep possibilities who head to Arizona, or yesterday's denunciation of pastors John Hagee and Rod Parsley. Here’s the drill for the medical records, as the New York Times mentioned yesterday: The campaign is allowing a small pool of reporters (including NBC) access to McCain’s medical records from 10:00 am to 1:00 pm ET in a conference room at the Copper Wind Resort in Phoenix. The reporters are allowed to take notes but not remove or photocopy the records. Then, at 2:00 pm ET, the campaign will host a conference call with McCain’s doctors. Meanwhile, NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann says the guest list for the couples coming to McCain's Sedona, AZ cabin this weekend include three potential vice presidential picks: Bobby Jindal, Charlie Crist, and Mitt Romney. Also expected to attend, per reports, are former Ebay CEO Meg Whitman (a dark horse veep possibility), Sam Brownback, FedEx chief Fred Smith (a possible veep candidate as well), and Sen. Lindsay Graham. By the way, don't fret Huckabee and Ridge veep fans; they, too, were invited this weekend but couldn't make it. The weekend will include three days of BBQing and likely some outdoor festivities like fishing and hunting. McCain will be joined by his wife and some of his children.Here's what we really want from reporters staking these folks out in Sedona, find some local to discuss which veep candidate has the ideal energy levels to converge with the area's famous vortexes.
*** An early look: The AP got an early look at McCain’s health records. “Three-time melanoma survivor John McCain appears cancer-free, has a strong heart and is in otherwise general good health, according to eight years of medical records.” More: “The details of McCain's health are contained in 1,173 pages of medical documents spanning 2000 to 2008 that his campaign made available to the AP to make the case that he's healthy enough to serve as president, as well as to counter the notion that he's too old. The Arizona senator will turn 72 in August and would be the oldest elected president.”
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his first read on the possibility of an Obama and Clinton "dream ticket" and McCain's divorce from the Rev. John Hagee. ***
Playing hardball: Speaking of McCain, he’s clearly is not a fan of Obama. Just take yesterday, for example. When Obama gave McCain a little push over Jim Webb's GI bill -- “I can't understand why he would line up behind the President in his opposition to this GI bill” -- McCain fired a political bazooka by issuing this statement: "I take a backseat to no one in my affection, respect and devotion to veterans. And I will not accept from Senator Obama, who did not feel it was his responsibility to serve our country in uniform, any lectures on my regard for those who did." Wow, "responsibility" is a VERY strong word. Then in announcing that he was denouncing Hagee, McCain made sure to remind everyone of Rev. Wright. “Hagee was not and is not my pastor or spiritual advisor, and I did not attend his church for twenty years,” he said in a statement. And then at a rally in Stockton, CA, the Arizona senator said this about Obama: "For a young man with very little experience, he's done very well. So I appreciate -- with his very, very great lack of experience and knowledge of the issues -- he's been very successful." Whoa, this was all yesterday. Has Obama gotten under McCain's skin? McCain has reserved some of his most sarcastic barbs for the Illinois senator. Forget the shots he enjoyed taking at Romney during the primary; that was beanbag. His disdain for Obama is crystal clear every day on the trail. In politics as in sports, the toughest and meanest guy normally wins. But is this a longer-term problem? After all, the image that McCain built from his 2000 presidential bid was the insurgent, happy warrior who was wronged by Bush in South Carolina and not afraid to buck his party. Then again, this could be part of a strategy to get under Obama's skin and get the normally congenial Obama to get into the sandbox and get mean as well. And if McCain can wear away at Obama's likeability, then he may help turn off indie voters from being tempted to support the Dem senator in the fall.
*** Obama courting the Jewish vote: Lost in the craziness of yesterday’s multiple back-and-forths between Obama and McCain was Obama's speech to Jews in South Florida. He faced some tough questions (which the Miami Herald notes might have been influenced by the local ads the Republican Jewish Coalition took out) and he seemed to handle them fairly well. Clearly, the Jewish vote is being seen as more critical than some would have predicted a year ago. Just look at how fast McCain dropped Rev. Hagee, once the pastor was seen as insulting Jews. McCain didn't drop him over the remarks on Catholics, but when it appeared McCain would lose a wedge issue against Obama with a key constituency in Florida, McCain dropped him like a hot latke. Obama's got a LONG way to go with Jews. The conspiracy theories are rampant in the Jewish community as yesterday's front page New York Times story showed. And one speech in front of one Jewish group isn't going to be enough. Can Obama afford to lose a third of the Jewish vote and still win an electoral majority? Some in Florida tell us he can make up the lost Jewish vote but it certainly makes things tough and if enough Jews crossover in Ohio and Pennsylvania and even Nevada, it could make the map that much tougher for Obama.
*** Audition time: But forget BBQs and short lists, the real tests for potential veep candidates are what they do in the public square. Jim Webb yesterday showed off his ability to take on McCain on veterans issues and win, and Joe Biden has an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal defending Obama from McCain's attacks. What should we look for on the GOP side? Romney and Tom Ridge have done a lot of campaigning on McCain's behalf. Will we see real auditions to test some other folks? Also remember: No story exemplifies the "silly season" more than veep speculation -- from "breaking news" speculation on Obama-Clinton to chatter about Bloomberg matching up with, well, everybody. Some of this may eventually turn out to be true, but it's probably not now. And remember, the source list on veep chatter grows exponentially because sources have agendas of their own now, like getting their clients mentioned in the Washington Post in short lists.
*** Hillary as Al Gore? So why is Clinton fighting so hard not only to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations -- but also on her campaign’s terms? Is it all about trying to make sure she becomes Obama’s veep? Or is it a way to extend the nomination fight as long as possible? Or does she see it simply as her only path to securing the Democratic nomination (which can’t be the case, since she needs superdelegates, not Florida and Michigan, to push her past Obama)? TPM’s Josh Marshall offers another opinion: It’s about establishing the argument that the nomination was stolen from her. “What she's doing is not securing her the nomination,” he writes. “Rather, she's gunning up a lot of her supporters to believe that the nomination was stolen from her -- a belief many won't soon abandon.” To put it simply, is she trying to transform into Al Gore, circa 2001-2003? Gore was able to keep a core constituency of folks because of the belief he was wronged. Clinton might want this same constituency to follow her -- no matter who ends up the nominee because it makes her a potentially powerful political player, particularly if she can start delivering her vote for others.
*** Mo’ money, mo’ problems: All the speculation about whether or not Clinton wants to be Obama’s veep -- including Time’s report that Bill is pushing for it -- has ignored this point: Hillary becoming vice president would be a financial hit on the Clintons. Why? Because Bill Clinton would most likely have to give up all of his paid speeches, as well as many of his other business deals. Of course, this would have been the case had Clinton become president, but that sacrifice would have been worth it to Bill. Would the sacrifice be just as worth it on the veep front? With Obama promising an overly ethical and transparent White House, can his vice president’s spouse be giving paid speeches and entering business partnerships with anyone that might have business before the US government? Perhaps the easiest way out for Obama is for Jim Johnson to ask the Clintons to submit to a thorough vetting on the financial front, including seeing the list of the library donors and restricting Bill's ability to make the living he's been making the last eight years. Of course, with the Clintons making $109 million since leaving the White House, they can survive if Bill is giving fewer paid speeches.
*** The delegate count: Clinton yesterday got Guam Party Chair Pilar Lujan. Since Kentucky/Oregon now it's 2-2 in superdelegates, with 208 who remain undeclared. The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts: PLEDGED: Obama 1,647 to 1,502; SUPERDELEGATES: Obama 306.5 to 282.5; EDWARDS PL. DELEGATES: Obama 10 to 0; TOTAL: Obama 1,963.5 to 1,784.5
*** On the trail: Clinton campaigns in South Dakota; McCain is down in Arizona; and Obama remains in Florida, attending a Cuban Independence Day celebration in Miami and holding a rally in Broward County. Also, Bill Clinton stumps in Montana. Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Clinton supporter/New York Gov. David Paterson said Clinton was looking a "little desperate" by calling for the votes in Michigan and Florida to count. “‘I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of a woman I still support and will support until she makes a different determination,’ Paterson told WAMC-FM radio. ‘Candidates have to be cautious in their zeal to win that they don't trample on the process.’”
“Paterson said he doubted his home-state senator would get the edge over Obama, even if the two states' votes were counted. Seating both groups in the way most favorable to Clinton would still leave her trailing Obama in the delegate count, because his lead is now almost 200 delegates.” More: "Paterson said he wouldn't agree with Clinton supporters who say her effort to capture the Michigan and Florida votes is akin to a civil rights fight. No candidates objected to the decision by party leaders to penalize the states, Paterson noted.”
As the Clinton campaign argues about Florida and Michigan, and also stresses their big state argument, it's interesting to note that a new PPIC poll in CA shows Obama -- not Clinton -- as the stronger Democrat in that state, proving Obama's point that primary results do not necessarily translate to the general. Then again, this poll proves that Clinton benefited from the calendar in some cases as much as Obama. Had California been later in the process, she probably doesn't win the state by as much as she did on February 5. And California, more than any other state, is what kept her in the delegate and popular vote game.
Memories of the Florida recount? “Busloads of Hillary Clinton supporters will swarm a meeting next week at a D.C. Marriott, where Democratic Party elders hope to forge a compromise over Florida and Michigan's now-voided convention delegates,” the NY Daily News reported Thursday. “‘We really don't know what to expect, but we do know that the Clinton people are very organized,’ said a senior Democratic National Committee source.”
What does Hillary want? The New York Times reports that as many folks predicted, Bill Clinton is contemplating the idea of Hillary as Obama's running mate. "The reports about Mr. Clinton’s musings surface as the Obama camp has quietly begun the process of searching for a partner on the Democratic ticket. The prospect of an Obama-Clinton ticket has been fodder for political gossip for months, with some Democratic leaders pushing the idea as a way to unify the party. The Obama and Clinton campaigns have consistently shrugged off the idea, however, and Mrs. Clinton has been adamant that she is only interested in the presidency.”
“Yet anyone who knows the Clintons is well aware that, at times, they come to politics with different motivations. Both of them want to return to the White House; Mrs. Clinton, of New York, also enjoys being a senator, while Mr. Clinton, according to associates, sees the vice presidency as perhaps her best path to becoming president someday if she loses the nominating fight. And Mr. Clinton has his own ideas about his wife’s best interests -- even if she sometimes does not share them."
A few things to think about regarding HRC as Obama’s veep: Will the former president allow Jim Johnson to fully vet his business deals? Will he get a look at the library donor records? Will he be OK with the limitations on where he can speak and who he cuts business deals with?
“Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), a Clinton booster, told The [New York] Post , ‘I am one that believes that if it works out that Senator Obama is the nominee, the strongest ticket would be Senator Clinton as vice president. No question in my mind. Because the constituencies in the votes are different. The weight of the states he carried versus the states she carried. It's different. And, therefore, if you combine them both, you've got the best electoral path.’ Feinstein said she promotes an Obama-Clinton ticket with everyone she talks to. Post’s cover , complete with an Obama-Clinton wedding cake: “Man and vice.” graphic showing the pros and cons of putting Clinton on the ticket. (It also highlights that she’s wearing two different shoes.)
The Washington Post previews the release of McCain’s medical records. "Sen. John McCain's 5 1/2 years as a prisoner of war in North Vietnam undoubtedly changed the course of his life. But now that he is 71, that remote trauma seems unlikely to shorten his life span or to lead to mental or physical conditions that are not already apparent. That is the implication of a body of research on the lifetime effects of captivity and war trauma and the anecdotal experience of the small group of naval aviators imprisoned with McCain at the notorious ‘Hanoi Hilton.’”
More: "The most obvious effect of McCain's captivity is in his arms. He broke both of them and a leg after ejecting from his bomber in 1967. Inadequate treatment of the injuries, as well as torture by his captors in Hanoi, left him with a decreased range of motion in his arms -- evident in the shrugging appearance of his shoulders. At the prison, which received its sarcastic Hanoi Hilton nickname from the Americans held there, McCain was repeatedly beaten, bound and placed in prolonged solitary confinement."
"Sen. John McCain on Thursday repudiated the presidential endorsement of the Rev. John Hagee after learning about a sermon in which the megachurch pastor from San Antonio declared that God allowed the rise of Adolf Hitler because it resulted in returning Israel to the Jewish people,” the Washington Post writes. "Mindful of the controversy that ensnarled Sen. Barack Obama, his possible opponent in the November election, McCain tried to draw a distinction between his link to Hagee and Obama's ties to the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., who was the pastor for many years of the church Obama attends in Chicago. Wright's incendiary remarks about the U.S. government have dogged the Democratic front-runner for months.
"I have said I do not believe Senator Obama shares Reverend Wright's extreme views," McCain said in the statement. "But let me also be clear, Reverend Hagee was not and is not my pastor or spiritual advisor, and I did not attend his church for twenty years." He added: "I have denounced statements he made immediately upon learning of them, as I do again today."
The Los Angeles Times : "McCain, who is viewed with suspicion by many conservatives in the Republican Party, had actively sought endorsements from evangelicals. He has had a rocky relationship with evangelical leaders, notably calling Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell ‘agents of intolerance’ in the 2000 presidential campaign."
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times writes that Obama “sought to assure Jewish voters here on Thursday of his commitment to the security of Israel and implored them to disregard the false stories and rumors about his beliefs, background and foreign policy views toward the Middle East… For nearly two hours, Mr. Obama tried to work through a deep-seated skepticism of his candidacy by some Jews. He was welcomed by warm applause that seemed to grow throughout the afternoon session at a synagogue.”
The New York Daily News : “The senator's remarks were one of his strongest public appeals to Jewish voters and come as Obama is shifting his focus on Republican John McCain and the fall campaign. Florida will be a critical swing state in November, and defections among Jews who usually vote heavily Democratic would cripple Obama's chances. Brief interviews with audience members following his remarks suggest Obama continues to face an uphill battle in the Jewish community. ‘He's a very articulate person,’ said Simon Mizrachi of Boca Raton. ‘But I'm voting for McCain.’”
The Miami Herald : “Obama took questions for an hour [at a conservative temple], even responding to the man who rambled on and asked if he had friends who were Jewish and ‘anti-terrorist.’ He also answered a couple of the hostile questions posed by the Republican Jewish Coalition in ads taken out in local newspapers that criticized his ‘dangerously naive foreign policy thinking.’” More: “Retirees Marvin and Edith Manning said they were not necessarily on board with Obama when they arrived at the synagogue, but he won them over. ‘I needed to see him in person, which is different than on TV,’ said Marvin Manning, who lives in nearby Century Village. ‘My gut feeling is that he will make a tremendous president. I thought he handled all of the questions forthrightedly, which impressed me.’”
The South Florida Sun-Sentinel : “A few Clinton backers attended the speech, and some said after the address that they were moved by Obama's charismatic remarks and impressed by his command of the issues. Some still expressed reservations about voting for him.”
While not claiming the nomination, Obama's doing a lot of things that nominees do -- like start a veep vetting process and plot the takeover of the DNC, so notes the LA Times today. "Obama is also moving to solidify his position in November's likely battleground states. He is in the midst of a three-day swing through Florida, where he has sought to allay fears among some Jewish voters that he is not sufficiently supportive of Israel. On Memorial Day, Obama and his wife, Michelle, are scheduled to visit New Mexico, also considered a swing state."
CONTINUED >>
Much was made yesterday about the appearances of Charlie Crist , Bobby Jindal , and Mitt Romney will make this weekend at McCain's Arizona ranch. But they aren't the only veep candidates who were invited. Apparently, Tom Ridge was invited -- but couldn't make it because he'll be in Europe. In addition, Outgoing EBAY CEO Meg Whitman who has caught the political bug will be there this weekend as will FEDEX founder/CEO Fred Smith , both who are seen as longshot VP prospects. In addition, the AP reported that Mike Huckabee was also invited to the McCain ranch this weekend but he's off celebrating his anniversary.
So did you make the list? Here's who the Washington Post lists for Obama today: Joe Biden , Sam Nunn , Jim Webb , Kathleen Sebelius , Janet Napolitano , Claire McCaskill , Evan Bayh , Ed Rendell , Ted Strickland , Michael Bloomberg and Chuck Hagel .
Here's who the Post lists for McCain: Charlie Crist, Tim Pawlenty , Rob Portman , Mitt Romney and Bobby Jindal.
Here are folks listed in the LA Times today: Clinton , Bill Richardson , John Edwards , Biden, McCaskill, Webb and Sebelius.
The Libertarian Party has qualified for the North Carolina ballot.
From NBC's Ken Strickland President Bush's request for fiscal discipline. One vote was add billions of dollars in domestic spending to the war-funding bill; the other vote was to override the President's veto of the farm bill.
Some of the senators voted against the president of both measures; others on just one. The list of 40 includes every single one of the 18 Senate Republicans facing re-election this year.
As recently as two days ago, the Bush Administration made it clear they would veto any war-funding bill that included domestic spending. In its Statement of Administration Policy, which carries the official rational for vetoes, it said, "The President also made clear that this bill must be fiscally responsible... this legislation includes billions of dollars of unrequested domestic spending, all of it in excess of the President's request."
Some of the items included are $11 billion for unemployment insurance, $10 billion for Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and $5 billion a year (over 10 years) for a new GI Bill expanding educational benefits for veterans.
The passage of the GI Bill can also be seen a rejection of McCain. The Arizona senator and presumptive GOP presidential nominee offered an alternative proposal that was killed on the Senate floor last week with the help of some Republicans. They included fellow Republican war vets John Warner and Chuck Hagel . In total, 11 Republicans in the Senate signed on as co-sponsors to Senator Jim Webb's bill that was approved today.
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From NBC's Mark Murray back-and-forth over the GI bill, Obama counterpunched with this after McCain played the you-didn't-serve-in-the-military card:
“I am proud to stand with Sen. Webb and a bipartisan coalition to give our veterans the support and opportunity they deserve. It's disappointing that Sen. McCain and his campaign used this issue to launch yet another lengthy personal, political attack instead of debating an honest policy difference. He should know that this is not about John McCain or Barack Obama -- it’s about giving our veterans a real chance to afford four years of college without harming retention," Obama said in a statement. "Sen. Webb’s bipartisan bill will do this, and the bill that John McCain supports would not. These endless diatribes and schoolyard taunts from the McCain campaign do nothing to advance the debate about what matters to the American people."
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Mark Murray McCain decided to "reject" the endorsement of evangelical pastor John Hagee. While McCain has denounced some of Hagee's past comments, he had not until today rejected Hagee's actual support.
Advisers acknowledge this endorsement was not properly vetted and that McCain was not aware of the range of controversial comments Hagee has made. The latest surfaced remarks were that "Hitler was a hunter" -- regarding the Holocaust -- and today advisers called those statement "heinous." While they acknowledge a "bit of concern" that some evangelicals needed by McCain might be offended, the campaign felt this step was needed today.
VIDEO: NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports on McCain rejecting the endorsement of the controversial Rev. John Hagee. Here's the statement McCain released and do note the dig at
Obama and Jeremiah Wright: "Obviously, I find these remarks and others deeply offensive and indefensible, and I repudiate them. I did not know of them before Reverend Hagee's endorsement, and I feel I must reject his endorsement as well. I have said I do not believe Sen. Obama shares Reverend Wright's extreme views. But let me also be clear, Reverend Hagee was not and is not my pastor or spiritual adviser, and I did not attend his church for twenty years. I have denounced statements he made immediately upon learning of them, as I do again today."
*** UPDATE ***
*** UPDATE II ***
More: "I hope that the Senator McCain will accept this withdrawal so that he may focus on the issues that are most important to America and the world."
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama will fill in for Ted Kennedy in giving Sunday's commencement address at Wesleyan University, his campaign says.
“Ted and I talked about me filling in for him at Wesleyan University earlier this week," Obama said in a statement. "Considering what he's done for me and for our country, there's nothing I wouldn't do for him. So I'm looking forward to standing in his place on Sunday even though I know I won't be able to fill his shoes."
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama .
Griffin served as the RNC's research director during the 2004 presidential election.
"He's one of the best political operatives in the country," said a Republican source who confirmed to First Read Griffin's hire at the RNC.
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann and NBC's Ken Strickland and Mark Murray McCain's pick for "Person of the Year" -- Gen. David Petraeus -- was appearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, of which the Arizona senator serves as the ranking member. Also, a GI bill that McCain actively debated came to the Senate floor and was passed as part of a larger war-spending bill.
But while Obama and Clinton both left the campaign trail to return to Hill, McCain happens to be in, well, California, where (among other things) he's attending a town hall with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger .
A McCain spokesman said the Arizona senator's absence was due simply to a scheduling conflict. "We have a schedule that is set far in advance," spokesman Brian Rogers said. (Per a Senate Armed Services press release, the Petraeus hearing was scheduled eight days ago, on May 14.)
But McCain's absence didn't stop the Arizona senator from sparring with Obama over an education bill authored by Sen. Jim Webb, a Vietnam vet who might be a possible Obama veep pick.
McCain, a fellow vet, tried to amend that bill last week after raising objections to the Webb plan, which offers education benefits to service members that would be so attractive that some Republicans (including McCain and President Bush ) were worried that the Armed Forces would face declining retention rates as a result. McCain's version failed after being tabled by the Senate last week. But today, the Webb measure passed as part of a larger domestic spending bill.
On the Senate floor today, Obama blasted McCain's opposition to the Webb bill. "I respect Sen. John McCain's service to our country. He is one of those heroes of which I speak. But I can't understand why he would line up behind the President in his opposition to this GI Bill. I can't believe why he believes it is too generous to our veterans. I could not disagree with him and the president more on this issue. There are many issues that lend themselves to partisan posturing but giving our veterans the chance to go to college should not be one of them."
McCain, however, shot back with this fiery response, which included a sharp jab at the fact that Obama didn't serve in the military.
"It is typical, but no less offensive that Sen. Obama uses the Senate floor to take cheap shots at an opponent and easy advantage of an issue he has less than zero understanding of," the Arizona senator said in a statement. "I know that my friend and fellow veteran, Sen. Jim Webb, an honorable man who takes his responsibility to veterans very seriously, has offered legislation with very generous benefits. I respect and admire his position, and I would never suggest that he has anything other than the best of intentions to honor the service of deserving veterans. Both Sen. Webb and I are united in our deep appreciation for the men and women who risk their lives so that the rest of us may be secure in our freedom."
McCain added, "And I take a backseat to no one in my affection, respect and devotion to veterans. And I will not accept from Sen. Obama, who did not feel it was his responsibility to serve our country in uniform, any lectures on my regard for those who did."
From NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli Clinton senior adviser Harold Ickes argued not only that Michigan’s and Florida’s delegations should receive full votes at the convention, but that the Michigan's 55 uncommitted delegates should be seated as such, not given to the Obama camp. NBC’s Tim Russert on Meet the Press May 11 that the campaign “certainly might” accept giving Michigan and Florida half votes, which he claimed DNC rules called for. As DNC chairman, McAuliffe wrote about threatening to strip Michigan of 50% of its delegates if it moved up its date. Bill Clinton has also called a 50% penalty “appropriate.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland Clinton and Obama will be back in the Senate this morning.
Both are expected to take part in a series of votes on emergency war-funding bills, which also have money for various domestic programs. (Specific details of the votes are forthcoming in a later note.) But in short, both are here more than likely to maintain their anti-war stance by VOTING AGAINST war funding, and their pro-troops stance by VOTING FOR an expanded GI bill. The votes -- four of them -- should start about 11:30 am ET.
As is always the case when these two come back to the Hill, we'll monitor the Senate floor for any huggin' or snubbin'. When both voted last week, the hovering press was rewarded with a handshake between the two.
Before the votes, Clinton is also scheduled to attended an Armed Services Committee hearing with Generals Petraeus and Odierno. The 9:30 am ET session is a confirmation hearing for both men who've been nominated to higher posts: Petraeus to CentCom commander and Odierno to replace Petraeus as commander of the Iraq multi-national force.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Shiny object time : You’ve got to hand it to Team McCain. By leaking out word that the candidate will be hosting three potential veep running mates (Charlie Crist, Bobby Jindal, and Mitt Romney) at his ranch this weekend, the campaign has given the press corps a nice distraction story to focus on at a time when he'll have just released details of his medical records on Friday, which just happens to mark the beginning of the Memorial Day weekend. There are veep short lists, and then there are short lists serving as shiny objects. And this weekend meeting appears to fall into the "shiny object" column. That said, all three men would bring some strengths and weaknesses to a McCain ticket. Crist is a centrist governor who would lock down Florida for the GOP, but he has been governor for just a year and a half and he’s unmarried. Jindal has served even less time as governor -- remember that McCain’s veep pick will receive extra scrutiny due to his age -- but he brings diversity as well as incredible smarts (Rhodes Scholar). Yet is Jindal TOO young, meaning that every time Jindal stands next to McCain, it's a reminder of McCain's elder status? McCain, at 71, is nearly twice Jindal's age, who turns 37 on June 10. And Romney, as we’ve mentioned before, would help McCain both on the economy and in Michigan, but his campaign skills proved to be weaker than we all expected. Speaking of veep stuff, the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder curtain-raises the Jim Johnson vetting process on behalf of Obama which may have started a lot sooner than folks think. On the defensive : Obama's finding himself more and more on the defensive on this issue of talking with rogue leaders. The campaign's surrogates have slowly been walking back his initial declarations and the RNC and McCain folks have been pouncing hard on him. The issue is one the Obama campaign still likes -- because it allows them to tie McCain to Bush’s foreign policy -- but it will have to deal with a couple of challenges today. The first is a critical AP article : “Obama gets cheers at his rallies when he declares there is nothing to fear, and potentially much to gain, from talking to enemies as well as friends. But U.S. diplomacy is not that simple and neither is his position.” The other is a New York Times op-ed noting that Kennedy’s meeting with Khrushchev in ’61 didn’t turn out all that well. Still, McCain has his own challenge that hasn’t received that much scrutiny: How would the course he proposes -- not to mention still trying to win the war in Iraq -- change Iran’s and North Korea’s behavior? This really is a unique issue debate because both campaigns believe they can win the argument. Right now, judging by body language alone, McCain appears to be winning it right now.
*** A Black eye? Here’s another challenge for McCain: How much of a distraction does Charlie Black (and potentially Rick Davis) present the campaign these days now that the DNC and outside groups like MoveOn want to make their lobbying pasts a major issue. This has to be a frustrating issue for the McCain camp, because most voters likely don't care. But it's the type of story the media loves to cover because it can look like such rich terrain. Just check out today's Washington Post story on Black's past clients. A reasonable explanation of Black's decision to represent these folks can be presented. But what's reasonable when the lens is the presidential campaign? Something Obama's learning with his rogue states comments and something the McCain campaign is experiencing right now when it comes to the staff's ties to the business side of Washington.
*** How do his members feel about this? AFSCME’s Gerald McEntee has been one of Clinton’s biggest supporters this presidential cycle, and he’s one of Washington biggest political players? But is his union’s reputation going to suffer if Obama wins the nomination -- and then the presidency? Check out these comments in today’s Washington Post : "[McEntee] said in a telephone interview that Clinton has been the superior candidate over the past few months and that Obama's losses in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and Kentucky could haunt the party in November. ‘Are we going to pick a candidate that will literally walk almost lame into the Democratic National Convention?’ he asked.” How is McEntee going to wriggle out of these comments? Remember, if Obama wins, this will be the second straight presidential election McEntee picked the wrong horse. McEntee has been instrumental in propping up Clinton. Whether it's organizing unofficial events in Florida or helping to direct money to that 527, McEntee might be the single most important endorser in Clinton's camp.
*** Here comes the Wolfson-Singer call : A new round of Quinnipiac polls shows Clinton to perform better against McCain in the battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. In Florida, it’s Clinton 48%, McCain 41%; McCain 45%, Obama 41%. In Ohio, it’s Clinton 48%, McCain 41%; McCain 44%, Obama 40%. And in Pennsylvania, it’s Clinton 50%, McCain 37%; Obama 46%, McCain 40%. No doubt Clinton looks stronger in these states, but she can’t use these polls to argue that Obama can’t win them. Clinton has to prove that he’s unelectable, not less electable, and that's the frustration the Clinton camp must feel. Why is that the standard? Many Superdelegates aren't going to be comfortable denying Obama the nomination without definitive proof he CAN'T win. Of course, the Obama campaign is probably wishing that Quinnipiac picked three different battleground states to poll (like Wisconsin or Colorado or even Michigan)…
*** The Woman In Red: While those Quinnipiac polls boost Clinton’s electability claims, does her fundraising report suggest the opposite? Once again, Clinton’s monthly FEC report shows her campaign to be in the red. Per the New York Times , she has a little over $6 million in the bank (compared to Obama’s $38 million), but has campaign debts of $9.5 million, which is on top of the $11.4 million she has loaned her campaign. If Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee, just how much money would she have to run TV ads between now and the Democratic convention?
*** The delegate count : Obama picked up two superdelegates yesterday to Clinton’s one. Obama got Mississippi Dem Party Chair Wayne Dowdy (a former congressman) and current congressman Joe Courtney (CT). Clinton was first out of the gate yesterday with a super: Ohio add-on Craig Bashein. The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts: PLEDGED: Obama 1645 to 1502; SUPERDELEGATES: Obama 306.5 to 281.5; EDWARDS PL. DELEGATES: Obama 10 to 0; TOTAL: Obama 1,961.5 to 1,783.5.
*** On the trail : Clinton is in the Senate attending Gen. David Petraeus’ nomination hearing at the Armed Services Committee; McCain spends his day in California, hitting the San Jose area and Stockton, where he holds a rally and raises money; and Obama returns briefly to Capitol Hill and then resumes campaigning in Florida, speaking to the B'nai Torah congregation in Boca Raton in the afternoon and then raising money in Miami in the evening. Also: A very interesting McCain-Ellen DeGeneres interview airs this morning (for more on that, see below).Click here to sign up for First Read emails .
The Boston Globe writes of “Clinton’s seven stages of grief.” 1. Shock -- third place in Iowa; 2. Denial. "Publicly at least, Clinton is still in this stage, insisting to supporters that the race isn't over despite the all but insurmountable delegate math;" 3. Bargaining. Clinton and her top aides have been cajoling superdelegates for weeks, trying to convince them that she would be the stronger nominee against Republican John McCain; 4. Guilt. Not for Clinton, herself, necessarily...Some loyalists say her staff has not run the campaign she deserved; 5. Anger. "It has surfaced most clearly in complaints about media coverage -- what she sees as the coddling of Obama, and what she described this week as sexist, at times even misogynist, treatment;" 6. Depression. "[N]o outward sign so far of this phase, other than fatigue on the campaign trail; 7. Acceptance. "This probably won't come until after the last contests on June 3, when Obama could very well mathematically clinch the nomination."
AFSCME's Gerald McEntee is not giving up on Clinton and continues to raise doubts about Obama. "He said in a telephone interview that Clinton has been the superior candidate over the past few months and that Obama's losses in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and Kentucky could haunt the party in November. ‘Are we going to pick a candidate that will literally walk almost lame into the Democratic National Convention?’ he asked.”
“McEntee said McCain will be a formidable opponent, one who is ‘distancing himself from Bush every day" and whose status as a war hero will make him attractive to many of the voters Democrats need to win.’”
Clinton's talking points yesterday about counting FL and MI only seem to be helping to do one thing: promoting HBO's movie "Recount."
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post details Charlie Black's lobbyist past, including his frequent representation of foreign governments. This comes on a day when MoveOn is out with a TV ad attacking Black.
The New York Times previews Friday's release by the campaign of McCain's medical records. "In an unforeseen bit of timing, the release of the records, which cover 2000 to 2008, will follow by three days the disclosure that Edward M. Kennedy, Democrat of Massachusetts, who is Mr. McCain’s good friend in the Senate, has a malignant brain tumor. Mr. McCain, who still has a puffy left cheek and a scar down the back of his neck from his surgery, told reporters that he continued to see an oncologist for regular checkups. The most recent visit was this month. ‘I could probably get away with seeing her every six months,’ Mr. McCain said, ‘but just to be on the safe side, I see her every three months.’”
Per NBC’s Bethany Thomas, McCain didn't dance on the Ellen DeGeneres Show, but he did field some tough questions on Ellen's upcoming marriage to actress Portia de Rossi in a newly legalized California civil ceremony. Ellen thanked McCain for coming on the show and said she had encouraged all of the presidential candidates to come on, regardless of whether they see eye to eye, "I don't think anyone should judge Republicans or Democrats or gays or straight or anything. Nobody should be judged by other people's opinions." Later in the interview, Ellen said, "Let's talk about the big elephant in the room." She told the senator and the audience that she will be soon marrying her longtime girlfriend. She said she was planning on marrying her before the state made it legal and asked McCain what his thoughts are on the same-sex marriage issue.
McCain said, "I think that people should be able to enter into legal agreements and it's something that we should encourage, particularly in the case of insurance and other areas and decisions that have to be made. I just believe in the unique status of marriage between a man and a woman and I know that we have a respectful disagreement on that issue."
Ellen responded, "I think that it is looked at and some people are saying the same that blacks and women did not have the right to vote. Women just got the right to vote in 1920. Blacks didn’t have the right to vote until 1870 and it just feels like there's this old way of thinking that we are not all the same. We are all the same people. All of us. You are no different than I am. Our love is the same. To me, what it feels like, I will just speak for myself, it feels like when someone says, 'You can still have a contract and you'll still have insurance and you'll get all that' -- it sounds like you can sit there, but you can't sit there. That's what is sounds like to me.”
CONTINUED >>
Pegged to his campaign stop in Florida today, the New York Times takes a look at the doubts Florida Jews have about Obama. "Jews, of course, are just one of the many constituencies Mr. Obama must persuade: Latinos, women, working-class whites and independents are vital as well. Thanks in part to enthusiasm from younger Jews, he won 45 percent of the Jewish vote in the primaries (not counting the disputed ones in Florida and Michigan), a respectable showing against a New York senator, Hillary Rodham Clinton.”
“But in recent presidential elections, Jews have drifted somewhat to the right. Because Mr. Obama is relatively new on the national stage, his résumé of Senate votes in support of Israel is short, as is his list of high-profile visits to synagogues and delis. So far, his overtures to Jews have been limited; aside from a few speeches and interviews, he has left most of it to surrogates. American Jews hold two competing views of Mr. Obama, said Rabbi David Saperstein of the Religious Action Center of Reform Judaism in Washington. First, there is Obama the scholar, the social justice advocate, the defender of Israel with a close feel for Jewish concerns garnered through decades of intimate friendships. In this version, Mr. Obama’s race is an asset, Rabbi Saperstein said.”
“The second version is defined by the controversy over his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., worries about Mr. Obama’s past associations and questions about his support for Israel and his patriotism."
CONTINUED >>
Yesterday, House GOP leader John Boehner unveiled a series of reforms to placate the criticism he and NRCC Chair Tom Cole have been receiving since the party lost three-straight special House elections. "The two men agreed on a prescription that includes a detailed ‘audit’ -- run by GOP Reps. Tom Davis (Va.) and Pat Tiberi (Ohio) -- of the mistakes made in the three special-election losses." More: "’Did the advertising work well, or didn't it work well? How was the ground game?’ Boehner asked. ‘There's a lot that we can learn out of those three races that will help us as we set ourselves up for the fall.’”
“The most significant move announced yesterday was a change in the party's approach to competitive Republican primaries. Leaders will now wade into those contests to help the best general-election candidates emerge, a shift from Cole's previous decision to stay out of primaries. In the Illinois and Louisiana special elections, party leaders believe that chances of success were hampered by subpar nominees. Republican nominees also will be aided by the establishment of new fundraising committees that will collect cash during the primaries and turn it over to the eventual winner for the general election. And Boehner is installing a key ally, Ed Brookover of the consulting firm Greener & Hook, in the upper echelons of the NRCC."
The New York Times : "As word of his grave medical condition shook the Senate this week, Capitol Hill struggled with the question of why the mere thought of a Senate without Mr. Kennedy was so unsettling. Serious senatorial illnesses and even death are not uncommon. What was it about the idea of Mr. Kennedy never again thundering from the floor, lumbering down the hallway or joking in the corridor that was so disturbing to lawmakers no matter their party? The potential answers are many, but the question could come down to just one fundamental truth: Mr. Kennedy, love him or loathe him, personifies stability and continuity. He somehow provides a sense of reassurance that political tumult is transitory while serious achievement is not." New York Daily News reports. “Multiple sources in Massachusetts with close ties to the liberal lion say his wife of 16 years has long been his choice to continue carrying the family flame in the Senate. Kennedy won the seat in 1962; his brother John held it from 1953 to 1960.
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama today blasted McCain over his campaign's ties to lobbyists and linked him to President Bush's foreign policy, McCain fired back, questioning Obama's foreign-policy judgment and experience.
"After Senator Obama's own advisers and supporters backtracked from his stated desire to hold summit meetings with the leaders of the world's worst regimes, Senator Obama himself has begun to reinterpret his stand," the Arizona senator said in a statement. "He now claims that some 'fear' to 'negotiate' with the likes of Iranian President Ahmadinejad, who has called Israel a 'stinking corpse' or Ayatollah Khamenei, who called Israel a 'cancerous tumor.' I have news for Senator Obama: I have met some very bad people before in my life. It is not fear that drives my opposition to unconditional meetings with Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, Kim Jong Il, and Raul Castro; rather it is my clear understanding that such a course will fail to eliminate the threat posed by these rogue regimes. I don't fear to negotiate. Instead I have the knowledge and experience to understand the dangerous consequences of a naive approach to Presidential summits based entirely on emotion."
"The question before the American people is which candidate is best able to secure the peace for the next generation of Americans, a peace that will keep our nation safe, prosperous and free. Senator Obama's desire to meet unconditionally in his first year at the presidential level with Iranian leaders is reckless, and demonstrates poor judgment that will make the world more dangerous...
"Senator Obama has consistently offered his judgment on Iraq, and he has been consistently wrong. He said that General Petraeus' new strategy would not reduce sectarian violence, but would worsen it. He was wrong. He said the dynamics in Iraq would not change as a result of the 'surge.' He was wrong. One year ago, he voted to cut off all funds for our forces fighting extremists in Iraq. He was wrong...
"We continue to face challenges in Iraq, and we have a lot of work ahead. Yet the American people must ask whether we are more or less likely to succeed there if Senator Obama has his way. Each of these positive developments in Iraq is the direct result of the new strategy that Senator Obama opposed. Senator Obama consistently predicted the new strategy would fail, and at every step events have demonstrated his judgment was consistently wrong. He now says that he intends to withdraw combat troops from Iraq -- one to two brigades per month until they are all removed -- regardless of the conditions in Iraq, irrespective of the consequences for our national security, and despite the best advice of our commanders on the ground. He is wrong again, and the American people deserve a President who has the strength, judgment and experience to keep our country safe and secure."
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Mark Murray New York Times , confirmed by NBC's Kelly O'Donnell: "McCain ... on Friday is scheduled to meet with two Republican governors who have been prominently mentioned as potential running mates, according to Republicans familiar with Mr. McCain's plan. Charlie Crist , the governor of Florida, and Bobby Jindal the governor of Louisiana, have both accepted invitations to meet with Mr. McCain at his home in Arizona, according to Republican familiars with the decision. One Republican said that Mitt Romney , a former rival of Mr. McCain for the presidential nomination - is also expected to visit him this weekend. Mr. Romney's advisers declined to comment."
More from the Times: "Another governor who has been prominently mentioned as a strong contender to run with Mr. McCain, Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, is not going to Arizona; his associates said he had a wedding on Saturday."
From NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli Clinton painted the delegate disputes in Florida and Michigan as the latest in a long history of fights for voting rights, and said that if Democrats fail to count these states’ votes, the party will “pay not only a moral cost but a political cost.”
Clinton referred to the nation’s founding, the abolitionist movement, suffragists and civil rights activists, and even the 2000 Florida recount in outlining how long people have fought for the principle that every person’s voice should be heard.
“Because of those who have come before, Sen. Obama and I and so many of you have this precious right today,” she said. “Because of all that has been done, we are in this historic presidential election, and I believe that both Sen. Obama and myself have an obligation as potential Democratic nominees, in fact, we all have an obligation as Democrats, to carry on this legacy and ensure that in our nominating contest, every voice is heard and every single vote is counted.”
Clinton came here to Palm Beach County -- the “epicenter” of the recount controversy -- and to this specific senior center where she appeared nine months ago, to argue that for Democrats to now stand in the way of voting rights would belie the party’s principles.
“To do so would undermine the very purpose of the nominating process: to ensure that as many Democrats as possible can cast their votes, to ensure that the party selects a nominee who truly represents the will of the voters, and to ensure that the Democrats take back the White House to rebuild America,” she said. “Now I’ve heard some say that counting Florida and Michigan would be changing the rules. I say that not counting Florida and Michigan is changing a central governing rule of this country, that whenever we can understand the clear intent of the voters, their vote should be counted.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy Obama picked what could be considered his first fight of the general election.
“John McCain has agreed with me on some of the steps we need to make our government more ethical and accountable,” Obama began here at yet another big-crowd rally. “Almost a decade ago, he offered a bill that, in his words, would ban a candidate from paying registered lobbyists. Let me repeat that: Ten years ago, John McCain offered a bill that said he would ban a candidate from paying registered lobbyists.
“And he did this because he said that having lobbyists on your campaign is a conflict of interest. This is what he said ten years ago. Well, I'll tell you that John McCain then would be pretty disappointed with John McCain now because he hired some of the biggest lobbyists in Washington to run his campaign.”
Obama then used a comment made by McCain campaign senior advisor Charlie Black to rally the crowd around his anti-lobbyist argument. Black told reporters aboard McCain’s plane on Monday, “I do not believe that average voters out there care,” about lobbyists working for McCain’s campaign.
But today, Obama -- and the crowd in Tampa -- disagreed. “When he was called on it, his top lobbyists actually had the nerve to say the American people won't care about this,” Obama said, to chorus of ‘boos’ from the crowd. “Well, I think the American people do care about it.”
While Obama has been forced to respond and counterpunch in tiffs started by McCain and the Republicans -- most recently over Obama's willingness to meet with leaders of countries that aren't necessarily friendly to the US -- Obama today struck first on the ongoing lobbyist purge inside McCain's campaign.
And wading back into the fight over whether negotiating with America’s enemies is “naïve,” as McCain claims, Obama argued today that McCain’s foreign policy is no different than President Bush’s.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
The DNC has just released the details on the meeting: It will take place in DC; it has a morning session (oral arguments) that begins at 9:30 am ET and an afternoon session (consideration and debate); and it's allowing the public to attend.
But there are caveats to this attendance: Space is limited and guests must pre-register. Also: "In order to maintain the decorum of the meeting, banners, posters, signs, handouts, and noisemakers of any kind are strictly prohibited. Also, please be advised that the agenda for the meeting does not include time for questions from the general public."
Of course, it's once again important to note that seating the Florida and Michigan delegations -- even exactly as Clinton wants them -- doesn't do much to change the delegate math. Clinton still needs to win an overwhelming number of the remaining superdelegates to clinch the nomination, whether the magic number is 2,026, 2,210, or somewhere in between.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Clinton was first out of the gate this morning with a superdelegate, Ohio add-on Craig Bashein. (Bashein was named as an add-on on May 10; Obama got the other add-on, Dave Regan, when he was named then.)
The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts: PLEDGED: Obama 1645 to 1502
Obama has now won a majority of the pledged delegates even including Michigan and Florida (if you count the nine of Edwards Florida delegates, who have indicated they will vote for Obama. Without those Edwards delegates, Obama would need six more delegates to achieve a majority.)
The splits factored in mirror the "beauty contest" primaries in Michigan and Florida. They are how the Clinton campaign hopes they are eventually seated. Those splits would be: MI: Clinton 73-55; FL: Clinton 105-76 (w/ Edwards delegates, 67 without).
It is also important to note that neither of the two challenges to the DNC's rules to be heard at the May 31st Rules and Bylaws Committee call for splits as favorable to Clinton as the ones we have factored in. That doesn't mean the RBC might not seat the delegates in that way anyway, particularly if the Obama campaign agrees to it.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Clinton said in a radio interview this morning that Democrats should learn from the lessons of the hanging chads from elections past and not ignore the will of the voters.
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro *** The magic numbers: With just 86 pledged delegates up for grabs in Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota, and 212 remaining undeclared superdelegates, Obama just needs about 20-25 superdelegate endorsements to hit the magic 2,026 number to claim the Democratic nomination, assuming he just splits the remaining 86 in half. But it’s quite likely that the magic number is going to change, because it appears that the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee has every intention of coming up with some sort of Florida/Michigan compromise. The one number we know it won’t be is 2,210 -- the number the Clinton campaign keeps using, because there seems to be little appetite among DNC types (still angry at the calendar mess those two states created) from seating the delegations in full. That means some sort of cut. The most likely magic numbers would be 2,131 or 2,118, which would cut the two delegations in half, either keeping the supers fully in tact (the former number) or cutting them in half, too (the latter). And so if you have those new magic numbers, then Obama needs approximately 50 new superdelegate endorsements to take enough delegates off the table that there is no mathematical possibility for Clinton to secure enough delegates to win the nomination without somehow convincing Obama pledged delegates and/or supers to switch. But we do wonder if Obama does end up in a no man's land where he's taken enough delegates off the table to prevent Clinton from getting the magic number, but there are enough undeclared supers sitting out to prevent Obama from claiming victory, which would give these supers the opportunity to become brokers. Perhaps Obama-Clinton ticket brokers?
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his first read on Tuesday's primaries and previews the new delegate math, should parts of the Florida and Michigan delegations be seated. ***
Perception vs. reality: We’ve noted how big a role perception has played in these Democratic contests. Some recent examples: Clinton holding a double-digit margin over Obama in Pennsylvania for most of the night until Philly returns dropped it below 10 points, or Obama’s big North Carolina victory versus Clinton’s narrow one in Indiana. Now here’s the latest example: Despite Clinton’s 35-point win in a state her husband carried twice, the lead in most of the papers today is Obama's declaration of securing a majority of pledged delegates. The New York Times’ headline: “Obama Declares Bid ‘Within Reach’ After 2 Primaries.” The Washington Post: “Obama Takes Delegate Majority.” It's the story of the Clinton campaign since March 4. Despite basically running even or slightly ahead of Obama in the primaries held since March 4, she can't change the trajectory of the race. Why? Keep reading...
*** Running in place: Want more proof that these contests haven’t really changed a thing since March? Heading into the Pennsylvania primary, according to NBC’s count that day, Obama led Clinton by 166 pledged delegates. Heading into Indiana and North Carolina, his lead was 154. Heading into West Virginia, the lead was 164. And heading into last night’s contest, the lead was 168. Now, even after her 35-point win in Kentucky (in which she picked up a net of 23 delegates, Obama’s lead per NBC’s count is 137, and that will only increase after the Oregon numbers are finalized. The more that changes, the more than stays the same, huh? What’s more, this is more evidence that Clinton probably lost this campaign between February 5 and March 4. In that month-long period, Obama won 11-straight contests. And, not counting the Virgin Islands and Democrats Abroad, he obtained 281 delegates to Clinton’ 163. That nearly 120-delegate difference is pretty much the race right there.
*** Where we stand: Obama leads in pledged delegates per the NBC hard count (1,639 to 1,502), superdelegates (304.5 to 280.5), overall delegates (1,953.5 to 1,782.5 -- including 10 Edwards delegates), the popular vote (16,698,548 to 16,278,635), and the total number of contests won (32 to 18). Note: We’re not including Texas in this contest count, given that Clinton won the primary but Obama won the caucus and netted the most total Texas delegates. A bit more on the popular vote... Without adding Florida and Michigan, as noted above, Obama leads by 419,913 votes. Adding Florida to the mix, he leads by 125,141 (17,274,762 to 17,149,621). And adding Michigan but not "uncommitted," Clinton leads by 203,168 (17,477,930 to 17,274,762 ). But do note that the "uncommitted" vote was 238,168.
*** A tale of two states: Here’s another thing that last night’s contests once again taught us: Obama doesn’t have a problem with white working-class voters; he has a problem with white-working class voters in Appalachian states. In Kentucky, just one in five of these folks backed him, but in Oregon nearly half of them did. How different are these two states? Consider these exit-poll numbers… In Kentucky, 57% of primary-goers believe the federal gas-tax holiday is a good idea, while 39% said it was a bad idea. But in Oregon, those numbers were essentially reversed: Just 26% said it was a good idea, while 63% said it was a bad idea. In Kentucky, moreover, 53% said that Obama shares Jeremiah Wright’s values; in Oregon, just 32% said that. One other thing to keep in mind regarding Clinton's success in Kentucky and West Virginia, and it has to do with the Clinton brand and the economy. These folks in Appalachia have been hit harder by this economy than folks in other parts of the country. And the last time things were looking up was when a Clinton was in the White House. So while there are a lot of folks wanting to think the worst of some of these voters, let's keep in mind: Appalachia and the Rust Belt, more than any other region of the country, are more likely to vote their pocket book when the economy is in the toilet. And this is where the Clinton brand comes into play. And it could be her best pitch to Obama types when it comes to the veep discussion.
*** The calendar’s influence: Like above, a lot has been made of the rather simplistic way to figure out who wins a state primary by examining the demographics. But let's not forget the influence the calendar has had. Imagine if states like California, New Jersey and Alabama stayed in their traditional slot of first Tuesday in June? Imagine if Kentucky and West Virginia hadn't been held on days with so few other primaries -- and so much attention placed on them. The order of these primaries has been as influential as the demographics. Would Clinton have won California, Florida and Michigan by the margins she did had those primaries been held after February 5? Would South Carolina been as influential on the national media's psyche if it had been held on February 5 or afterwards? Obama's being over-examined right now on his so-called white working-class problems. But would we even be focused on this issue if Kentucky and West Virginia weren't so prominent on the calendar?
*** Chuck Hagel vs. Joe Lieberman: : One of the interesting themes today will be the contrasting takes between Republican Chuck Hagel and self-described independent-Democrat Joe Lieberman. Here’s Hagel talking about McCain’s recent rhetoric in talking about reaching out to Iran: “I'm very upset with John with some of the things he's been saying. And I can't get into the psychoanalysis of it. But I believe that John is smarter than some of the things he is saying. He is, he understands it more. John is a man who reads a lot, he's been around the world. I want him to get above that and maybe when he gets into the general election, and becomes the general election candidate he will have a higher-level discourse on these things." Meanwhile, in a Wall Street Journal op-ed , Lieberman whacks Obama. “There are of course times when it makes sense to engage in tough diplomacy with hostile governments. Yet what Mr. Obama has proposed is not selective engagement, but a blanket policy of meeting personally as president, without preconditions, in his first year in office, with the leaders of the most vicious, anti-American regimes on the planet.” Might this be a preview of the fall veep debate? Obama-Hagel vs. McCain-Lieberman? Stranger things have happened.
*** The Kennedy brand: Just how influential is the Kennedy brand on Democratic politics? Obama's been pegged by some as the next JFK; Clinton the next Teddy K. (particularly if she loses this primary and decides to stay in the Senate); and John Edwards has drawn comparisons to RFK (think poverty tour). The bottom line: Democratic presidential candidates are constantly being compared to the Kennedys. This is not news to many of our readers, but still worth pointing out nonetheless as the political world pays homage to the most dominant political dynasty in Democratic Party politics.
*** Schumer keeps his streak alive: Sen. Chuck Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, kept his near-perfect record in picking nominees in contested primaries in tact with yesterday’s wins by Bruce Lunsford in Kentucky and Jeff Merkley in Oregon. In Lunsford, Schumer got a self-funder who can do all the dirty work of trying to put Mitch McConnell's Senate seat in play as the DSCC decides how hard to compete. And in Merkley, well, he got the candidate he endorsed. The jury's still out about his ability as a candidate and whether he's got what it takes to dislodge GOP Sen. Gordon Smith, who has already spent millions branding himself as a bipartisan/moderate/indie type Republican. Still, at this point, the game is all about having more opportunities than your opponent. And Schumer and the DSCC have that in spades.
*** Obama does Florida: Obama campaigns in Florida today. In fact, with Clinton following him there, you’d think there was a primary or something going on there… Actually, campaigning in Florida can be a three-fer: 1) it's a fall battleground; 2) the state's still a disputed delegate primary battleground; and 3) Central Florida has a sizeable Puerto Rican population that can translate into support for the island's primary on June 1. Clinton campaigns in Boca Raton, Sunrise, and Coral Gables, while Obama holds a rally in Tampa, attends a town hall in Kissimmee, and raises money in Orlando. Meanwhile, McCain raises money in Irvine, CA.Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
With 100% of precincts reporting, Clinton beat Obama in Kentucky, 65%-30%. In Oregon, with 88% reporting, Obama bested Clinton, 58%-42%.
This Los Angeles Times headline and subhead tell the story of just how Clinton got little media credit for Kentucky win last night. The header: "Obama wins Oregon and takes step closer to winning nomination." The subhead: "He captures a majority of pledged delegates to the Democratic convention even as he loses Kentucky by a wide margin to Clinton." So Obama's win and delegate milestone get headline play and Clinton's Kentucky win gets subhead play.
That’s how many media outlets focused their stories. The New York Times says Obama “took a big step toward becoming the Democratic presidential nominee on Tuesday, amassing enough additional delegates to claim an all but insurmountable advantage in his race against … Clinton. While Mrs. Clinton’s campaign continued to make a case that she could prevail, Mr. Obama seized on the results from Democratic contests in Kentucky and Oregon to move into a new phase of the campaign in which he will face different challenges. Those include bringing disaffected Clinton supporters into his camp; winning over elements of the Democratic coalition like working-class whites, Hispanics and Jews; and fending off attacks from Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, especially on national security.”
Here are some other interesting things in the piece: Obama is “planning a vigorous schedule of travel to general election states and a voter registration drive focusing on black voters to offset any losses among whites. Aides said he was considering delivering another speech to deal with damage in the primary because of attacks on his relationship with his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., as well as on his patriotism. ‘We know we have our work cut out for us,’ said Steve Hildebrand, a deputy campaign manager for Mr. Obama. ‘But we are up to the task.’”
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The New York Times: Aided by his army of small donors, Senator Barack Obama bested Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and John McCain in April fund-raising, taking in $31.3 million and ending the month with more cash on hand than either rival. While fund-raising for Mr. Obama dipped slightly from the previous month, when he raised $40 million, he still outraised -- and outspent -- his Democratic opponent, Mrs. Clinton.”
“But Mrs. Clinton’s tally for April, $22 million, was an improvement over March, when she took in $20 million. And nearly half the April money, $10 million, came in online on the day after she won the Pennsylvania primary. Mrs. Clinton also had several days during the month in which she raised $1 million through online donations. On the Republican side, Mr. McCain, who was once spending more money on his campaign than he took in, raised $18.5 million in April, his best month ever.”
The Republican National Committee points out to First Read, however, that McCain ($22 million) plus the RNC ($40 million) has more cash on hand than Obama ($37 million) plus the DNC ($4.5 million) has.
The New York Times : Rebuffing associates who have suggested that she end her candidacy, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has made it clear to her camp in recent days that she will stay in the race until June because she believes she can still be the nominee — and, barring that, so she can depart with some final goals accomplished. Mrs. Clinton has disagreed with suggestions, made directly to her by a few friends recently, that her continued candidacy was deepening splits within the Democratic Party and damaging Senator Barack Obama’s chances of emerging as a formidable nominee. She has also disputed the notion that, by staying in, she was unintentionally fostering a racial divide with white voters in some states overwhelmingly supporting her.”
“Rather, in private conversations and in interviews, Mrs. Clinton has begun asserting that she believes sexism, rather than racism, has cast a shadow over the primary fight, a point some of her supporters have made for months. Advisers say that continuing her candidacy is partly a means to show her supporters -- especially young women -- that she is not a quitter and will not be pushed around.”
Maureen Dowd pens a mock conversation between Clinton and Obama that's full of venom for both candidates.
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed , Joe Lieberman writes that “Obama, who, contrary to his rhetorical invocations of bipartisan change, has not been willing to stand up to his party's left wing on a single significant national security or international economic issue in this campaign. In this, Sen. Obama stands in stark contrast to John McCain, who has shown the political courage throughout his career to do what he thinks is right – regardless of its popularity in his party or outside it. John also understands something else that too many Democrats seem to have become confused about lately – the difference between America's friends and America's enemies.”
“There are of course times when it makes sense to engage in tough diplomacy with hostile governments. Yet what Mr. Obama has proposed is not selective engagement, but a blanket policy of meeting personally as president, without preconditions, in his first year in office, with the leaders of the most vicious, anti-American regimes on the planet. Mr. Obama has said that in proposing this, he is following in the footsteps of Reagan and JFK. But Kennedy never met with Castro, and Reagan never met with Khomeini. And can anyone imagine Presidents Kennedy or Reagan sitting down unconditionally with Ahmadinejad or Chavez? I certainly cannot.”
The Washington Post covers McCain’s attack on Obama on Cuba. “Sen. John McCain stepped up his assault on Sen. Barack Obama's foreign policy credentials at a rally in Miami yesterday, criticizing Obama's willingness to talk to Cuban President Raul Castro and other hostile foreign leaders without preconditions. But McCain's argument was undercut when a 2006 video emerged of former secretary of state James A. Baker III, a prominent McCain supporter, saying that "talking to an enemy is not in my view appeasement."
Will Bush once again tag-team Obama? Per NBC’s Kevin Corke, President Bush today will deliver remarks in the East Room commemorating May 21st as a "Day of Solidarity with the Cuban People."
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The LA Times’ Wallsten curtain-raises Obama's first major campaign trip to Florida. "The extended fight with Clinton helped Obama build volunteer networks and burnish his get-out-the-vote techniques in less populous general-election battleground states, such as Colorado. But winning Florida's 27 Electoral College votes will require him to build his campaign machinery almost from scratch. Obama, like Clinton, did not compete in the state's disputed January primary, and he lost that vote to Clinton by a wide margin. Clinton appears intent on reminding voters of that -- leaving the primary campaign trail to make three stops today in South Florida. Clinton has insisted that she is in the race until all the votes are counted.”
“As Obama looks toward the general election, Florida figures prominently in his strategy. Winning the state would do serious damage to the Republican plan for building a majority in the Electoral College, and competing there would force the GOP to spend precious resources in a state that it must win to keep the White House. In recent days, the Obama campaign has shifted as many as 15 staff members to Florida, launching a massive voter registration drive targeting young people and African Americans."
More: "Obama hopes to draw about 20,000 supporters at a rally today in Tampa, but more important will be his outreach to key demographic groups that he has had trouble winning in past primaries.”
“In a sign of the dispute's high stakes , both candidates will head today to Florida - with very different agendas. Clinton plans to drive home her message that Sunshine State voters deserve to have their ballots counted. At the same time, Obama will try to soothe hurt feelings and look ahead to November, when Florida will undoubtedly be a key swing state against Republicans.”
Meanwhile, “Obama is quietly planning to take over the Democratic National Committee and assemble a multistate team for the general election, the latest sign that he is putting rival Hillary Rodham Clinton and the nomination fight behind him,” the AP writes. “Top Obama organizer Paul Tewes is in discussions to run the party, several Democratic officials said Tuesday.” More: “Tewes is one of the leading architects of Obama's success in the marathon Democratic primary race. He engineered Obama's critical victory in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3, which gave Obama the upper hand and Clinton was never able to fully overcome. DNC executive director Tom McMahon and DNC political director Dave Boundy traveled to Chicago last week to meet with Tewes and other campaign officials to discuss merging efforts.”
The
Oregonian : “Merkley won a narrow victory over political activist Steve Novick in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary Tuesday night, turning back a feisty rival to earn the right to challenge Sen. Gordon Smith in November.”
“After two unsuccessful attempts to get his party's nomination to be governor of Kentucky, Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford turned back six challengers Tuesday to get the Democratic Party's nod to run against Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell for U.S. Senate in November,” the
Lexington Herald-Leader writes. “The race is expected to be expensive. Lunsford said he expects McConnell will spend at least $15 million in his efforts to win his fifth term and that he will be "well-funded" in the contest.
And here’s a preview of McConnell’s strategy: "I am honored to once again be able to place myself before the voters of Kentucky and look forward to running against the Lunsford-Obama plan for America," he said in a statement.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Obama returned to the state that launched his once long-shot campaign for the presidency to celebrate a milestone he believes places him on the brink of winning the nomination.
Joined by his wife and children, the Illinois senator delivered a forward-looking speech, just blocks from his campaign headquarters. He focused on his usual themes of unity across regions, ethnic groups and parties, and paid homage to supporters in Iowa who helped him win big here in January.
"You came out on a cold winter’s night in January in numbers that this country has never seen, and you stood for change. You stood for change and because you did, a few more stood up. And then a few thousand stood up and then a few million stood up," he told the crowd gathered in an intersection on a balmy night with the state capitol as a backdrop. "And tonight, in the fullness of spring, with the help of those who stood up from Portland to Louisville, we have returned to Iowa with a majority of delegates elected by the American people, and you have put us within reach of the Democratic nomination for President of the United States.”
The senator was introduced by a woman who had campaigned extensively in the state on his behalf, often taking her 11-year-old daughter along for the ride.
His win in nearly all-white Iowa went a long way to convincing many doubters -- of all races, but perhaps especially black Americans -- that a black man could win the support of white voters.
Obama mentioned his rival Hillary Clinton only briefly, congratulating her on her win in the Kentucky primary and praising her as a formidable candidate who had broken down barriers. It appeared to be an attempt to appeal to Clinton's legions of female supporters.
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