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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Clinton camp plays electability card

Posted: Thursday, May 01, 2008 3:04 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: ,

From NBC's Mark Murray
Citing some recent polls, the Clinton campaign is making this argument to Democratic superdelegates: that Clinton -- not Obama -- is the most electable Democrat in November.

The polls include a Quinnipiac survey that finds Clinton performing much better than Obama in general election match-ups in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania --as well as the latest New York Times/CBS survey, which has Clinton leading McCain nationally by five points (48%-43%) but Obama tied with the Arizona senator (45%-45%). However, the Clinton campaign didn't mention the NBC/WSJ poll showing that Obama leads McCain by three points (46%-43%), while Clinton leads him by one (45%-44%).

"Over the course of the past two weeks since our Pennsylvania victory, there has been real movement in the polls in terms of the candidate who is the strongest against McCain," Clinton chief strategist Geoff Garin said in a conference call with reporters.

Added Clinton delegate hunter Harold Ickes in a memo to Democratic superdelegates: "A spate of new public polls out this week confirms what we have been arguing for some time: Hillary Clinton is the strongest candidate to beat John McCain in November."

Of course, one of the downsides to stressing electability through public polls -- especially for a contest that's six months away -- is that there's usually data that can make the opposite case, such those NBC/WSJ numbers above or Clinton's net-negative favorability rating in many surveys.

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We do not support O'Bama because of what his preacher said....we do not support O'Bama because of what HE DID NOT DO...He did not stand up for America...by complacently remaining in that church, he complacently accepted all the rhetoric...including the Damning of America....his lack of judgment, poor decision making skills, inablity to stand up for America in his own church,.. for 20 LONG years, tell us alot about O'Bama's character!!!!!!!! ...and he wants to be our commander in chief, the highest office in our country...YOU HAVE SERIOUSLY GOT TO BE KIDDING!!!!!!!!!!!

This so called rev. was his mentor, spiritual advisor,like one of his family...and O'bama refused to give him up until the voters began to give him up!!!!  I do not believe O'Bama's "words" anymore!!!!!

We see no plans either...lots of talk...learned to captivate audiences from his spiritual mentor...watch his verbal inflections and gestures!!!
He is NOT electable!!
Hillary '08
 
And Ickes is doing a heckuva job on those delegates.
 How many more did Sen. Obama nab since PA?
Hillary supporters, I would really like for one of you to answer how you feel about Magnaquench and Hillary's quote from TV last night "Rich people, God bless us.."

I would really really like to understand how you hear these things and still think she's "one of us" and is "fighting for us".
Do these polls include how many will boycott the election if she is given the nomination?

As far as Obama supporters are concerned, HRC and McCain are the same. So why vote for either of them.
So now they want the superdelegates to vote for the way the polls go and not the votes?  What a joke and how desperate are they?
BS walks and money talks.  Who is raising the most campaign money?
If she gets the nom without the most delegates she will lose in November. This is not a heirarchy.
As for electability, a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll found nearly 60 percent of voters think Hillary is dishonest. ---Think about that ---  Only 4 in 10 voters do not think she lies when she needs to.  A majority hold an unfavorable view of her.  Will those numbers improve if she wins the nomination and Republicans resurrect the Clinton scandals, like the Bill Clinton sexual affairs and her Bosnia lie?
.
The Clintons were a disaster for the Democratic party throughout the 1990s.  When Bill Clinton became president, Democrats were a congressional majority, with 258 seats in the House.  When he left in 2001, they were a minority with 46 fewer seats.  There were 30 Democratic governors when he arrived, 21 when he left.  Hillary’s 2008 presidential campaign has always been about the Clintons’ own self-interests.  Hillary has deliberately tried to undermine Obama’s electability in the general election, knowing that could be ruinous for the Democrats in November.  


We keep getting these specious arguments from Clinton: now it is 'electability'. Before it was 'most votes cast', and 'large states',  
Will someone break the news to her that it is number of delegates that decides the winner.  Not popular vote (although Obama has that), not number of primary victories (although Obama has that), not caucuses won (although Obama has that).

In about 10 days he will overtake her in superdelegates, which is the only measure she has left.

She lost on the gas tax fiasco, when she could even pump her own gas - didn't know how -, or get herself a cup of coffee in the mini-mart, (didn't know how).

What a waste of our time.  Even the GOP is ignoring her.
It's too early to play your cards yet, you still need over 210 superdelegates to Obama's approximately 80. That's almost 3 to 1.  

Vote with your head, vote for the economy, vote for the environment, vote for jobs.

Vote Democratic 2008 -- don't let the corporations and their Republican stooges win again.  
These ratings are expected since the media is STILL making this the main political issue.  I expect the numbers to go back to normal sometime next week because Sen. Obama is back to talking about important issues that "should" concern voters. Sen. Clinton unfortunately can bask in the sun a little longer, but the inevitable is going to happen sooner or later.

OBAMA, 2008!
now show how many popular votes she has, how many delegates she has.  Popular votes shouldn't even count, but we'll give her the benefit of the doubt.  
Obama has taken an absolute beating. We knew he was inexperienced, but now he looks it. No more abstract speeches Barack, now we need hard core ideas, and you have shown that you have none. Throw on this Wright issue, and it all adds up to you being just another left wing loon. We need someone that will defend America, and that's not you. You can't even figure out what your pastor is about, let alone how America works with other world leaders.

The superdelegates have a job to do, and that's to vote for Hillary.
Hillary can NOT win. Not only did she go into this race as one of the most polarizing figures in American politics, but she's managed to divide her own Democratic party. Hillary Clinton is a fraud who is doing irreperable damage to the Democrats.
THIS is an absolute joke...apparently the polls doesn't matter...because almost everything i read that is not bias towards clinton..is how most Americans can stand her and are beginning to dislike her more and more....and the fact that people are defecting from her campaign and eslewhere means alot....You media report everything Hillary's campaign say ..as if they really have a handle on what's going on...and apparently the don't so...why do you print this garbage?
I doubt Hillary will be so electable as superdelegates and Hoosiers learn about the Magnequench lie, the foreign policy blunder of obliterating countries in the entire Middle East, and the Paul V Clinton fraud trial.
Hillary must think that the superdelegate crowd is as stupid as those who bought into her 100 million dollar blue-collar image with the testicular fortitude to fight and oppose (at least secretly) everything that she previously voted for or supported.

Methinks they are a wee bit brighter than that.  
Obama is unelectable. What a mistake Democrats have made to get into this situation. It's going to be a hard road to get out of this mess, but Democrats will be better off for it when it is done.

No Barack!!
I was actually quite impressed by Barack's numbers in Florida in the Quinnipiac survey.  Considering he never campaigned there, I'll take a tie in Florida anyday!
L cruiz...

do you do everything your pastor tells you to do?  Or do you agree with everything your spouse says?  

how dare you stay with that church or your spouse!!

hypocrite!
It has only begun to shift...just wait another week or so and the real shift to Senator Clinton is going to happen!!

This is what it's all about at this point, it will do the Democratic Party absolutely no good to nominate someone like Senator Obama...he's a rookie senator whose views of America are skewed toward the left wing liberal side...not a populace candidate...that's why he's unelectable!!

Name one left wing liberal president?  I'm sure you can name democratic left wing liberal candidates that went down in defeat!
I'm going to sustain permanent eye roll damage here - Is it ANY wonder she is performing better - she's gotten little if ANY bad press since her Bosnia lie - and the press has been going 24/7 on Obama's pastor.

Believe me - Just because Obama is too decent to bring up her past scandals - that does NOT mean that the Republicans won't ...and WHEN the Republicans roll out ALL of the Clinton scandals and they start to get 24/7 coverage - Her numbers will go down and her negatives will skyrocket (if they can even get any higher) ...And this whole thing about Hillary's being vetted - Think Again - she has NOT been vetted for the past 8 years...and, again, the Republicans will do this.
This was posted in response to another article...it is more appropriate here. So I repeat....

Ok, you want Substance from Pat Huntington NY as to why Obama can't win in November, here you go:

Obama Campaign: Ohio and Florida Don't Matter
by Todd Beeton, Thu May 01, 2008 at 02:45:41 PM EST

Last week, Chris Cilizza posted excerpts from an Obama electability memo (h/t notlarrysabato in Breaking Blue) sent around to superdelegates. The memo touts Obama's ability to expand the map as evidence that he's a stronger nominee in November than Hillary Clinton.


"His ability to expand the Democratic base, and his ability to capture the crucial Independent vote, make him a stronger general election candidate than Senator Clinton, who would enter the fall campaign with the highest unfavorable ratings of any nominee in half a century," reads the memo. OUCH!

The memo goes on to detail polling from across the country that makes their case -- breaking down the map into "big states," "traditional battlegrounds" and "making new states competitive."

Here's how the memo breaks down the states within those categories:

Big States: California, New York, New Jersey and Illinois.

Traditional Battlegrounds: Iowa, North Carolina, Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Mexico, Nevada, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

New States: Colorado, North Dakota, Virginia, Montana and Texas.


Putting aside for a moment the absurdity of placing North Carolina on par with such blue states as Oregon, Michigan and Pennsylvania in the "traditional battleground" category, notice a couple states missing from the analysis altogether?


Two states that are not mentioned in the Obama memo are Florida, the key battleground in the 2000 presidential race, and Ohio, the Florida of the 2004 contest.

Any Democrat making a case for his electability had sure better address the scenes of the crime from 4 and 8 years ago but here instead, it's as if Obama is saying, well...that Florida and Ohio just don't matter.

It's a tough case to make to Democrats, it seems to me, that Florida and Ohio are irrelevant in the scheme of the presidential race, but it's no wonder why he'd ignore the states. According to the latest Quinnipiac University polls, taken April 23-29, not only does Hillary Clinton crush John McCain in these two states, but Obama comes up just short within the margin of error against the Republican.


Florida
Clinton (D) 49%, McCain (R) 41%
McCain (R) 44%, Obama (D) 43%

Sample: 1,411 Florida voters. Margin of error: ±2.6%.

Ohio
Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 38%
McCain (R) 43%, Obama (D) 42%

Sample: 1,127 Ohio voters. Margin of error: ±2.9%.


As the Quinnipiac analysis puts it plainly:


"If the super delegates are looking at electability, these results could be a shot in the arm for Sen. Clinton. No one has won the White House since 1960 without carrying two of these three swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. And she clearly is running much better against Sen. McCain than is Sen. Obama, at least for now," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Now, I've said before that, while it makes it more difficult, either Democrat can win without Florida or Ohio. You add New Mexico and Iowa to the states John Kerry won and the Democrat would need only 6 more EVs to reach the magic number of 270. Clinton could deliver that in Arkansas (6 EVs) and Obama in Colorado perhaps (9 EVs.) But when you're living in world in which the nomination is essentially in the hands of superdelegates who are likely to be swayed by traditional electability arguments, I suspect Florida and Ohio matter indeed.
Liars figure and figures lie.  Time for Goldielocks to go nite nite.

Bob, Chicago
You have a typo in that headline . . . it should read:

"Clinton camp plays DESPERATION card"

Give it up, Hil . . . the fat lady is warming up!!!
For L. Cruiz.
Maybe Obama electable maybe not. BUT HE WILL BE NOMINEE, that's done deal, no matter what you, Hillary people are thinking. Too late for Hillary to hope for a victory.
By the way you so sure that Obama is not electable...
You wanna bet your house on that? I am ready for this bet.
Where are all the people that elected W for 2 terms because of his family values after the BIG Clinton embarrassment? Is part of you the ones backing Hillary because of her and Bill's "family values"? Here you have an almost perfect family, with two adorable little girls. The only dirt that can be drug up on Obama is his EX pastor and that is by association, he never slept with his Pastor. When you are in the voting booth, why don't you close your eyes and think about his ideas and his wanting to unite the country and his platform of change.  Think about his intelligent speaking loving wife and those two babies....................and pretend they are WHITE!
Hillary,

Never kid a kidder!
Google "Gary Hart / Walter Mondale" to see what happens when super delegates over turn the will of the people. Keep in mind the younger generation hasn't been in politics long enough to have loyalty to one party or another. If they feel the nomination was stolen from them, you'll see a wave of revenge voting. I don't think Nancy is willing to give up her 51-49 majority of the Senate due to party elites.

Super delegates need to grab some pop-corn, turn on the history channel, and think about this one long and hard.
Obama is unelectable. Obama's chickens, are coming home to roost.
The Clinton campaign is studiously avoiding discussion of the blowback from the SDs flouting the primary results and substituting their judgment for the judgment of the voters in 50 states and various territories.  Sen. Clinton will have no coat tails and may even have a negative impact on down ticket races.  No matter how ardently Sen. Obama supports Sen. Clinton in the general election, many of the new people who registered to vote will, at best, stay home.  If Sen. Clinton does not yet know the meanin of the word "bitter", the African American community is sure to enlighten her.  

The SDs did not become SDs by indulging in fantasies.  This is a hopeless cause for Sen. Clinton and if she is not careful she will become a laughingstock or a punch line.  I can still remember the hilarity each election cycle (after the second or third) when Harold Stassen announced he was running the Republican nomination.  
These are the same polls that didn't count a week ago, right Hillary?
I have been reading most of the comments on your post Chuck Todd and it seems that many are asking why MSNBC, NBC and the rest of MSM isn't reporting about Peter Paul's lawsuit against the Clintons filed in California. Why is the networks so afraid to talk about this?
polls, just like states...just like votes...are only important to the Clinton campaign, if they benifit her....if they don't, then they don't exist and shouldn't count (see: caucus arguement, or disregard of delegate count in total, etc....i could REALLY go on)...
POLLS DON'T ME ANYTHING...I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW WHO ARE THEY POLLING??? CLINYTON'S SUPPORTERS, MCCAIN'S AND THE REPULICIANS OPERATION CHAOS!!!

SHE IS STILL BEHIND IN THE DELEGATE COUNT AND WILL RUN OUT OF SUPERDELEGATES VERY VERY SOON!
You Obama-trons are starting to sound "bitter." "Typical White Folks" in my neighborhood are having a bible study followed by a gun show tonight. I hear that's the cure for bitterness. Good luck with that! Go Hillary!
Clinton has only one positive that name recognition.  She knows this time is the only chance. If she does get now later she  has no chance. In this process she will permanantly damge democraty party and her future chances. In the process Our Greatgrand Nation and its people will suffer within and outside.
I was looking for my lost reading glasses when the 'four supers for Hillary' came up.

My take:

With the one she lost to Barack, and the two others he picked up today, she's no closer today than she was yesterday.
Can we stop sending my tax dollars to obama supporters? they seem to have plenty of money to waste on politics so why so they need another trillion in giveaways like he is proposing
The media should do their job and report on Hillary's blatant lie about Magnequench.

Valparaiso Indiana has been trying to get the media to tell the story of Hillary's intentional lie.

The media knows she talked to the former vice president of Magnequench and that she intentionally changed the details.
As far as problems we will need to resolve in the future internationally - I think the entire world is waiting for the United States of America to elect Barack Obama as our next President.

The world is not waiting for John McCain. They are not waiting for Hillary Clinton.

And for those who say who cares - well, you better care.

We have a lot of fences to mend.

Okay ... let's talk electability ... let's talk leadership.

Can you even imagine electing a talented, intelligent, classy President who is a good husband and a loving father. No?  Okay, then let's judge him on someone else's words.
 
Can you even imagine having a President who has committed himself to work for the poor and the people struggling to get by.  No?  Then let's judge him on his sometimes hesitant speech.

Can you even imagine having a President who turned from the opportunity to have a lucrative career to embrace a far less financially rewarding commitment within a poor community.  No?  Then let's judge him by the darts thrown by his opposition.

Rather let's have a President who is devious.  Because, after all, isn't that what a "good politician" does.  Let's applaud the ability to maneuver and construct negatives.  Let's close our eyes to the possibilities and favor "what we know", even if that leads us to more of the same.

Are we that afraid??  
I think these numbers make the case for Obama.  If I were the Clinton campaign I would hide these.  He's tied in 2 and winning in one. We all know he wins in many other states against McCain.  
L.Cruiz
***************

I would like to know the logic behind not supporting Obama b/c of what his pastor said.  Seriously.

Let's be honest, despite all the purposefully obtuse "analysis" we get from the media:

He probably stayed in an influential church in the community he represented.

A church that helps the less fortunate in the district he represented.

A church that has a membership of 8,000 +

His staying in that church probably had a lot to do with the fact that it helped him to keep his finger on the pulse of the community he represented - and it helped him to stay in touch with his constituents.

THAT IS A GOOD THING. THAT IS SOMETHING A GOOD LEADER DOES.

And it is actually a logical and reasonable conclusion - Obama has NEVER done ANYTHING in his political life to demonstrate that he agrees with his former pastor's offensive statements.

So - HOW does this reflect on his ability to lead the country?

Please - enlighten me.

Because to me - this is just an excuse used by people who would NOT support him anyway...but simply do not have the intellect to articulate a logical reason for their position.
I just have to say that if I was NOT totally convinced before - I certainly am now... MSM & especially MSNBC do CONTROL this election - with all the major gaffes Shrillary has committed the past couple of days - there is  not a PEEP out of MSNBC!!

How about reporting on the Magnequench deal (at least ABC had the balls to!) How about the push polling that's going on?? How about the deceptive phone calls being made by the woman's group??

Nope... nothing... nada... zilch out of MSNBC!!!

Instead we get 'Goldilocks' GIVE ME A BREAK!!!!!!!

People are not as stupid as you believe and I for one am an bitter white woman who will now be turning off MSNBC (sorry Keith & Rachel you are the only voice of reason at this circus) on this bias media outlet!  WE get the point as to who you want as the democratic candidate... a woman who will lie cheat & steal her way to the whitehouse... GOD help us all!

Obama 08 - YES WE CAN!!
You Obama idiots still don't have a clue. Superdelegates can change their mind at any time. Who ever they say they are for today, they can change tomorrow. The only time their vote matters is at the convention. So any totals you see now, can change tomorrow.

Have a nice summer.
I just have to say that if I was NOT totally convinced before - I certainly am now... MSM & especially MSNBC do CONTROL this election - with all the major gaffes Shrillary has committed the past couple of days - there is  not a PEEP out of MSNBC!!

How about reporting on the Magnequench deal (at least ABC had the balls to!) How about the push polling that's going on?? How about the deceptive phone calls being made by the woman's group??

Nope... nothing... nada... zilch out of MSNBC!!!

Instead we get 'Goldilocks' GIVE ME A BREAK!!!!!!!

People are not as stupid as you believe and I for one am an bitter white woman who will now be turning off MSNBC (sorry Keith & Rachel you are the only voice of reason at this circus) on this bias media outlet!  WE get the point as to who you want as the democratic candidate... a woman who will lie cheat & steal her way to the whitehouse... GOD help us all!

Obama 08 - YES WE CAN!!
First order of business in Denver: Tear-gas the Michigan and Florida delegates. They broke the rules you know.
Wow, quite the argument. Now we are basing the general election on polls in which the democrates have not yet campaigned aganist McCain. These polls are hypothetical. If the last election taught is anythings, it is that polls are inaccurate. There are recent polls from NBC which shows Obama beating McCain. The same poll indicated that 4 in 10 Obama supporters will not vote for her. Couple with the 29% of new voters in PA who said in the primary they would not vote for her. She is not electable. Her record proves she does  not stand for the working class, but panders to them. She has not created jobs in NY as she promised, supported NAFTA and her campaing stratigiest lobbied for CAFTA which her husband received money from. For the bloggers who will not vote for Obama because of his pastor, then don't voter for Hillary based on her backroom deals with NAFTA and her husband and stratigiest lobbying for CAFTA which she is aganist. She says one thing and her record and actions show something different. This is what people want in a president? Get real and wake up before it is too late.  
Polls are a snapshot in time...if we knew electability based on a poll at any given point, well, we could make a lot of money in Vegas!!


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