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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Clinton camp plays electability card

Posted: Thursday, May 01, 2008 3:04 PM by Mark Murray

From NBC's Mark Murray
Citing some recent polls, the Clinton campaign is making this argument to Democratic superdelegates: that Clinton -- not Obama -- is the most electable Democrat in November.

The polls include a Quinnipiac survey that finds Clinton performing much better than Obama in general election match-ups in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania --as well as the latest New York Times/CBS survey, which has Clinton leading McCain nationally by five points (48%-43%) but Obama tied with the Arizona senator (45%-45%). However, the Clinton campaign didn't mention the NBC/WSJ poll showing that Obama leads McCain by three points (46%-43%), while Clinton leads him by one (45%-44%).

"Over the course of the past two weeks since our Pennsylvania victory, there has been real movement in the polls in terms of the candidate who is the strongest against McCain," Clinton chief strategist Geoff Garin said in a conference call with reporters.

Added Clinton delegate hunter Harold Ickes in a memo to Democratic superdelegates: "A spate of new public polls out this week confirms what we have been arguing for some time: Hillary Clinton is the strongest candidate to beat John McCain in November."

Of course, one of the downsides to stressing electability through public polls -- especially for a contest that's six months away -- is that there's usually data that can make the opposite case, such those NBC/WSJ numbers above or Clinton's net-negative favorability rating in many surveys.

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L. Cruiz....I couldn't have said it better myself, and I couldnt afree with you more!
Obama "associations," "liasons," "friendships," or acquaintances, whever the hell you want to call them, are going to cost our party the election this November if he is the nominee.
Obama's supporters flood these boards with messages on an hourly basis. (sometimes the same poster makes multiple postings in one thread under different names to make it look like more people support him than actually do) One might think that a good number of them don't have jobs because who' boss is going to let them sit at their desk and do that all day, hmmm?
Then of course there are the posts that come DIRECTLY from Obama's surrogates, people who get paid to do nothing but blog favorably about Obama all day.
I'll vote for Hillary. I'll vote a straight Democratic ticket if she gets the nomination.
But, I'll do just the opposite if Obama gets it. I'll vote for McCain, and I'll vote against every Democrat on the ballot, just to show my disatisfaction with the nominating process, the way Hillary was treated by the media AND THE DNC, and to show my utter DISGUST that a sleeze-bag like Obama could ever get nominated by The Democratc Party.
You LOCAL super delegates at the municipal and state levels need to be paying attention to that. Don't let Barack Obama do you out of your jobs.
Michelle Obama should stop whining. Michelle WHHIIIIINNNESS!!

Barack needs to disown Michelle.
Pat of Huntington

Whar moron bases an opinion on anything that comes from Quinnipiac University.  My dog could get a degreee from there. The school is a joke.
Just because Obama want tear down his opponent of his own party doesn't mean he's not fit to be POTUS.  I love the fact he is staying above the fray...I'm pretty such HRC is loving it as well.  If Obama was any other candidate HRC would be out of the race because they would exploit her negatives.  Wow...people want so much but they can't commend a politican for not tearing a fellow politicans in their own party.  
His poll numbers are up  because she probably paid for the re-emergence of Reverend Wright. The issue didn't hurt Obama the first time around, so she really needed him to appear for an encore performance. and Voila!! Her friend organized the press club event and invited Wright to speak at it.  This woman will do ANYTHING to win!!! I seriously believe that she would eat a plate of dog poop if it would guarantee her the presidency.
Ok let me say this. Hillary has become the best used car salesman remember she's got nuts.  No I am not talking about you followers of hers. Well maybe I am,she has potrayed herself as many famous Americans real or fictinal,she is now seen as dishonest, because she will pander ,lie ,cheat and steal to try to get this nomination. It is very apparent that she will say and do anything to try to steal this nomination. I bet that if somebody told her she could get more vote in NC by wearing bib overalls and a trucker cap she would do it.Poor Bill was one of my favorite politicians of all time.Until recently he is shameless too.  Bill how could you let campaigning for your wife flush your legacy down the drain !!   Hillary have you not any shame ????? These cheap theater tricks ,slight of hand to make votes appear and tiresome.  Do some research on this character it fits Hillary to a " t" .    Cal Worthington of Worthington Ford.
I just have to say that if I was NOT totally convinced before - I certainly am now... MSM & especially MSNBC do CONTROL this election - with all the major gaffes Shrillary has committed the past couple of days - there is  not a PEEP out of MSNBC!!

How about reporting on the Magnequench deal (at least ABC had the balls to!) How about the push polling that's going on?? How about the deceptive phone calls being made by the woman's group??

Nope... nothing... nada... zilch out of MSNBC!!!

Instead we get 'Goldilocks' GIVE ME A BREAK!!!!!!!

People are not as stupid as you believe and I for one am an bitter white woman who will now be turning off MSNBC (sorry Keith & Rachel you are the only voice of reason at this circus) on this bias media outlet!  WE get the point as to who you want as the democratic candidate... a woman who will lie cheat & steal her way to the whitehouse... GOD help us all!

Obama 08 - YES WE CAN!!
Apparently the SD are telling the Clintons what they are going to do, they are just not listening. Watching Obama handle himself over the last couple of days makes me proud to be a supporter.  We finally have a chance to restore decency and dignigty to the office of the POTUS.  
Boop Me Snow,

RIGHT ON!  Brilliant!

OBAMA 08!
Florida: Clinton tops McCain 49 - 41 percent; McCain gets 44 percent to Obama's 43 percent;
Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 38 percent; McCain gets 43 percent to Obama's 42 percent;
Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 51 - 37 percent; Obama leads McCain 47 - 38 percent.

Lets be real on these polls.  Even if accurate this far out, it shows Obama still easily winning Pennsyvlannia.  It also shows him tied with McCain in Florida, a state that Obama did NOT campaign in at all, but one that McCain not only campaigned in, but won with the help of Gov. Crist.  So for Obama to be tied without even campaigning there yet is hardly bad news.

The map isn't the same anymore, and even if you believe in the stupid argument that Hillary is making that you can't win states you lost in the primaries or historically red states, then SHE can't win by her own argument.

The fact is blue states will go blue for either Dem.  The difference is Obama puts a few states in play that Clinton can not, such as Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, etc.

California - 55
Colorado - 9
Connecticut - 7
D.C. - 3
Delaware - 3
Hawaii - 4
Illinois - 21
Indiana - 11
Iowa - 7
Maine - 4
Maryland - 10
Massachusetts - 12
Michigan - 17
Minnesota - 10
New Hampshire - 3
New Jersey - 15
New Mexico - 5
New York - 31
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania - 21
Rhode Island - 4
Vermont - 4
Virginia - 13
Washington - 11
Wisconsin - 10


That's 297-241 for Obama not including Florida or Ohio.  He can lose Pennsyvlania as well and still win.  So the argument that you must win two of Penn, Florida, and Ohio is wrong.  You can lose all 3 and still win.  Win one of those and you can drop Virginia, Colorado, or Indiana and still win.
HRC is not in the White House and she already has a foreign policy blunder.  She wanted to appear tough, but now she appears to have egg in her face.  That's what happens when you talk or act without considering all the consequences.  Bad judgement!  In return, Iran is probably going to increase its support of terrorists in Iraq.

MSNBC, report what the others are reporting not just Wright.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/01/clinton.iran/index.html

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/04/30/iran-condemns-clinton-for-threatening-to-attack/

Paul v. Clinton, MSNBC where is it?

HRC’s ties to black revolutionaries while at Yale, MSNBC where is it?

HCR criticizes Indiana plant closings which Bill approved while in office, MSNBC where is it?

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4757257&page=1

 
To all McCain supporters, Republicans, and Independents:
I'm sure you have been keeping up with the current Democratic primary. And I am equally sure you have read the fervent support from the backers of Hillary Clinton. They insist that the only way that McCain can win is if Obama is the nominee. In fact most are saying that they will vote for you if Obama wins the nomination.
Well McCain supporters, I have been "swayed" by their arguments about the upcoming election. In fact, here's your chance to "guarantee" your candidate the November election. Just vote for Obama in the upcoming Indiana and North Carolina primary (Indiana is an open primary). I "know" you don't want to face Hillary Clinton in the general election; and her supporters will support you in the fall.
So an obvious strategy would be to come out if force for Obama in the remaining two primaries. That way, you won't have to face the "formidable Clinton machine" in November; you can handle Obama, right? All the Hillary supporters' opinions on this blog says so.
If I were a McCain supporter, I would vote for Obama in every primary in order not to have my candidate to face Clinton. She would be scary in the general election. Kind of an "Operation Chaos" in reverse; but a strategy to insure McCain's election in the fall.
After all, Hillary and her supporters said so, so it "must" be true
Electability? YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME!!!! How electable will HRC be once she is fully vetted and it comes out that she's been having lesbian affairs for god knows how long! Read Gennifer Flowers book and listen to Bill Clinton(pg.47)describe Hillary's love related appetite. This news will blow Rev. Wright right out of the water and won't be good for the votes HRC is desperately seeking.
Huckabee Hil should be ashamed of herself and the way this campaign has been run, very republican if you ask me?

She is totally attacking her dem. opponent at every chance she gets,

The Clintons are out there telling lies every day,

I am tired of people saying Obama doesn't talk about issues, go to just one of his rallys or town halls, this man has wonderful ideas that inspire us and make us proud of our country, and when he leaves our state to head to another one, we are already changed, more people are volunteering and offering to help someone who needs a hand, they feel empowered with this mans words……

I am voting on May 20th here in Oregon, and I can't wait to vote for the best person who is ready to get rid of old Washington politics of pandering to get your approval, and then screw you over after they get your vote…….Hey PA have you heard from Hil since your big Tuesday????

I am Voting for Obama

Turn the page
Bring our troops home, make real change in washington!!!!

Vote for Obama

My name Jeanie and I approve this message……..
Polls? Any super delegate that votes based on short term movement in polls is not worth that office or privilege. It sure shows that they are not being swayed..at least not from the numbers Obama is winning and the ones defecting from HRC. Where is the beef?
This argument may fall on a lot of deaf ears.

While it's may be nice to debate the electability card keep in mind how many of the superdelegates must also be concerned with their own electability.

...as in, the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate.

It would be nice to see the Senators and Representatives who face serious challenges for their seats to see where they are throwing their support as the top of the ticket may have an effect on the other races.

Keep in mind that the hardcore right of the GOP isn't particularly thrilled with Senator McCain as the nominee.  The risk for the GOP with him as the nominee is that this block of voters may sit on their hands come November 4.

The problem may be that this same block of voters hates the Clintons.  They may not like McCain but they hate the Clintons more and it might be enough to get them to vote just to keep them out of the White House.

Under that scenario, what happens down the ticket...does a high anti-Clinton voter turnout jeopardize swing seats in Congress?
I want to know what great accomplishments were HILLARY CLINTONS' and not something she took credit for that her husband did.  BILL CLINTON was already the president.. not HILLARY.. so if we throw out those 8 years she was the first lady, what has she done as a politician.. I wish one of you dumb ass hillary supporters can step up and answer this question since Hillary has soooo much more experience that Mr. Obama...
40% of voters in Michigan voted against her, despite her being the only name on the ballot.

6% of those who voted for her in PA claimed that they wouldn't vote for her in the general.

Her campaign is heavily in debt.

The media is invested in the continuation of the race.

Sonner or later the house of cards will come crashing down.
Well Chuck Todd IS the numbers man.
And Chuck said unless she wins every remaining state by 70% to Obama 30% she can NOT win.   She can win every state primary by 10% like she did in PA, it won't give her enough to catch up.  She can NOT win the popular vote without 70%.  

Chuck Todd has said it, time and time again,as well as other number guys, she can NOT win without a 70% vote count in every remaining state primary.  
I guess that means...if she doesn't get 70% of the vote in every state, she can't win the popular vote!

The supers are not going to take the popular vote away from the people.  To hand it to her.  Unless they want record numbers of Democrats leaving the party and going "Independent"!

Unless of course you count India and Columbia's votes.  
Ickes skips over the moon.
And Goldilocks dances with little red riding hood!


I must say from a Network which employees Pat Buchanan I"m not at all surprised that a person who admitted to frequenting KKK meetings gets her words printed time and again so she can spew her reason why Obama is a racist but I think I've been published maybe two times? On to the topic now...

So again Camp Hil"LIAR"y is changing the goal posts? Now they look at polls when it is favourable for them but when it wasn't it was "polls don't matter"? The Hil"LIAR"y camap ought to put stickers on neckbraces for all the whiplash supporters will get. Or are they betting on their supporters are too dumb to listen to anything she says? I'm sure May polls will hold true in November. I'm sure she saw herself losing all the states she's lost so far in Polls from last december. This is rubbish. I'm so over all these "unbiased" news stories.
The rules say a candidate has to get 2025 votes to get the Dem nomination. So both Obama and Clinton have to work this out with the Superdelegates. I can't imagine all the 800+ superdelegates are somehow more smarter than an avg voter. They all vote based on what suits them the most...I'm sure they all have political ambitions and personal agendas. If Obama can get them, great, if Clinton can get them, great.
THe rules don't say the Superdelegates have to choose the person with the most delegates, so it's a fight to the finish.

The Media likes Obama to win, so they keep bringing up "how can the Superdelegates overturn people's mandate". Well, check the rulebook, it DOES NOT say superdelegates have to vote that way. But then, I'm sure the folks in the Media already know that!

Everyone should take a step back and let this play out, and the best person will emerge at the end.
Truth is, NO ONE KNOWS FOR ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY which Dem will be McCain, so that's a piss pour agrument for Clinton to be making.  However, it's absolutely in the best interest of our Country that WE DO NOT HAVE ANOTHER BUSH TERM.  If the vast majority of people feel they want to end the war in Iraq.. if the vast majority of women do not want to see Roe v. Wade overturned... if the vast majority of people want our economy to stop this spiral downward...then come time for the  GE, then the vast majority of people will get off their butts and go VOTE AGAINST ANOTHER 4 YEARS OF BUSH.


How exactly does Clinton intend to win the election after the AA community abandons her for stealing the nomination from the guy who got the most pledged delegates?
Truth is, NO ONE KNOWS FOR ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY which Dem will be McCain, so that's a piss pour agrument for Clinton to be making.  However, it's absolutely in the best interest of our Country that WE DO NOT HAVE ANOTHER BUSH TERM.  If the vast majority of people feel they want to end the war in Iraq.. if the vast majority of women do not want to see Roe v. Wade overturned... if the vast majority of people want our economy to stop this spiral downward...then come time for the  GE, then the vast majority of people will get off their butts and go VOTE AGAINST ANOTHER 4 YEARS OF BUSH.

Oh yeah..she is so electable she cannot even win a newbie clean and sweet within the democratic party where she is supposedly loved. If we are talking electability, lets give it to some John Edwards - at least the stereotype candidate: no race or gender baggage. That helps too right? Electability my feet!


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