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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



May 6: Watch GOP voters in IN

Posted: Friday, May 02, 2008 9:26 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

INDIANA: The Wall Street Journal looks at just how influential GOP voters could be on Tuesday in this state’s contest. "Several factors suggest that Republican voters may be attracted to the Democratic primary this year, including an open-primary scheme that allows voters of all political stripes to cast ballots, a settled nominating race on the Republican side and a downticket slate that includes few cliffhanger races to interest the Republican faithful. As one Republican Party official put it, ‘when the circus is in town, people want to go to the circus.’”

More: "Friday, Sen. Obama's campaign will introduce three prominent Republicans who are supporting the campaign: John Clark, a top aide to Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels, who is running unopposed in the primary; William Ruckelshaus, a former Nixon administration lawyer whose family has deep ties to the state; and Jim Benham, president of the state's National Farmers Union.”

And: "In a state that hasn't elected a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, the lure for these Democrats is strong. Sen. Clinton, who appeared this week on the show of conservative television talk-show host Bill O'Reilly, has a fair-weather champion in the form of radio conservative Rush Limbaugh, who has been urging Republicans for weeks to join an ‘Operation Chaos’ and vote for the New York senator in states that have open primaries."

The Indy Star looks at how local black ministers are pushing to get the vote out for Obama.

The Boston Globe notes Evan Bayh's efforts to win Indiana for Clinton. If he does it and Clinton ends up the nominee somehow, then she's got a lot of current and former govs she'll have to put on her supposed short list: Bayh, Rendell, Strickland, and Easley. "In Clinton's most important recent primary victories, she has had a Democratic state boss rallying party regulars to her side: Governor Ted Strickland in Ohio, Governor Ed Rendell in Pennsylvania. It is now Bayh's turn to play kingmaker. And though it is unclear whether he can deliver as successfully, in public and behind the scenes, he has been using his name, his political muscle, and his instantly recognizable face to draw Hoosiers to Clinton's cause.”   

While the national media may assume Bayh has a death grip control of the Indiana Dem Party, apparently some of these high profile endorsements for Obama are about "sticking it to" Bayh, writes Indy Star columnist Matthew Tully. "Many state Democrats have privately complained about feeling pressure from the Bayh camp to support Clinton, or at least to not endorse Obama. Others believe Bayh has lost touch with up-and-coming Indiana Democratic politicians during his time in Washington.”

The Indy Star, meanwhile, endorsed Clinton.

NORTH CAROLINA: As we mentioned earlier, a new Research 2000 poll has Obama up by seven points in the state, 51%-44%. “The poll also shows that younger voters (ages 18-29) heavily favor Obama 67 percent to Clinton's 29 percent. On the other hand, those over 60 chose Clinton by a margin of 59 percent to 35 percent. Overall, Clinton leads for those over 45 years old while Obama leads all younger sets. Women also chose Clinton by a slight margin over Obama, 49 to 47 percent, while men chose Obama 56 percent to 38 percent for Clinton.”

And let’s not forget Guam… The Wall Street Journal: "Sen. Clinton and her husband are reminding voters about their multiple visits to Guam during stopovers on presidential trips to Asia in the 1990s. ‘She's been here, and she knows us,’ says Rena Borja, who is spearheading Sen. Clinton's Guam campaign operation of about 20 volunteers. Sen. Obama is pointing to his upbringing in Hawaii and Indonesia. ‘I learned firsthand about the unique issues facing Pacific island communities,’ he said in a letter to Guam residents that was published in local newspapers.”

“The Obama campaign has opened an office in Guam, a first for a presidential campaign, and has three paid staffers with personal ties to the island. The Illinois senator won the Hawaii caucus in February 76% to 24%."

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Comments

Let's see if Firstread has the guts to put this up today of Hillary Clinton's advisor dissing Indiana voter

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sN_nQOHj__s
THE INDI STAR POLL HAS CLINTON UP BY 10 POINTS.THIS PAPER HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD WITH ITS POLLS. MARK PENNS WIFE WAS A STAFFER FOR BAYH.SO NO SUPRISE BAYH ENDORSED HILLARY.
I guess NBC has taken of the position of "We're going to stretch the Wright story at least a week after it should've been concluded by writing a story about the story".  All of a sudden the American public cares about the Black issues, specifically the Black Church and how it's dealing with Wright?  Even CNN has moved on past right.  You really think Black people care more about that then they do about gas prices, mortgage foreclosures, and a unarmed kid getting shot 50 times and the cops getting away with it completely?

When this becomes a two-person race, I really do hope you guys stretch the John Hammond story for over a week after it should've been concluded.  

Gimme a break.....
America can not afford to continue on the low road.

Could this be the year that the high road becomes the choice of preference in American politics? The magnitude of the issues demands no less.
Indiana and North Carolina --
There's the pitch
It's a sinker thrown by Hillary...Obama swings the bat with a mighty thunder...
Some where birds are singing and some where children are laughing but there's no joy in Billary ...The
Mighty Barack has crushed her "testicular fortitude" out of the park!!!!

(catcher of the hanglia said,
" I'll be selling it on Ebay, stay tuned ">)
Obama has the edge on Clinton with disenfranchised republicans as well as independents, the black vote, the young vote, and the voters who see  Hilary for what she is.  Please check out Peter Paul's video about Paul vs Clinton on:

http://www.hillaryproject.com/index.php?/en/story-details/trial_date_to_be_set_in_paul_vs_clinton_on_february_21_2008/
The smart money is on someone really looking at that GOP vote...there's a lot of funny business going on there.

And with Clinton consistently running to the right, a lot of us are wondering just WHY it would be worse of us to pull the lever for McCain over her.  I'd rather have a true Republican in the White House than a fake one.  Just reporting on a lot of buzz I've been hearing.  Its amazing just how Republican this Dem. establishment figure is getting.  Is anyone at the DNC worried about that or do they just figure she's playing politics?

Rhetorical question for me as I won't vote for her in either case...

I am a white middle class 40-something life-time Dem. and if the Clintons continue to control the Dem. party, I will leave and MAY never come back.  I'm not the only one who feels that way.  Maybe you don't like Obama but Obama is not the Dem. establishment, he is one person who rose up.  But the Clintons have been the Dem. party and apprently if I have to move from Clinton, I also have to move from the Dems.

I hope someone is paying attention, thank you.

And lastly, GO GUAM!!!
This just in...

Rush Limbaugh is a pomous blowhole who has absolutely no interest in the Indiana Primary other than to boost his own ego!

"Look what I did!  I sabotaged the DNC!  Ha ha!  Yay, me!"
This will undoubtedly help Barack Obama, as it has in most of the previous open primaries.

Obamacans unite!

http://thepajamapundit.com/
If the DNC doesn't get the message that if they don't step up to the plate and put this nomination to an end...they $$$s may dry up in an election year that is theirs to lose.  (At least there are some level headed Republicans that actually may care about this country than party loyalty....wonder if the DNC wakes up and smell the rose - OBAMA)
The operation chaos vote will be especially marks since so many Obama supporters will be denied the ability to vote because they do not drive.
Elite indeed...
Only in the eyes of Sid Blumenthal and his echo chamber of Mercedes Benz, Rolex wearing determiners of regular folks that send their kids to National Cathedral.
By the way...Zogby has a poll just out with Obama up 16 in NC and tied in IN.  

Here is my prediction..Obama wins by double digits in NC (+15) and squeeks by in IN (+1).  
You know, the funny thing is, now that the Republican party has decided their own primary, they are deciding the Democratic one too by voting for Senator Clinton in the primary so they can vote against her in the General Election. Funny how the "media" pretends not to notice.

Obama '08
Obama will be blown out in Indiana, Hillary can win the GE, but Obama cannot.  The DNC has thrown it's lot with him and now they are stuck, even though it means a certain loss.
I hope that Hillary "Republican" Clinton doesn't get victories from the Limbaugh republicans looking to vote for her now so they can vote against her in November.  I'd bet the republicans will try to mess up the Democratic primary process and that's why this race should be over already.

Go Obama!
"In a state that hasn't elected a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, the lure for these Democrats is strong. Sen. Clinton, who appeared this week on the show of conservative television talk-show host Bill O'Reilly, has a fair-weather champion in the form of radio conservative Rush Limbaugh, who has been urging Republicans for weeks to join an ‘Operation Chaos’ and vote for the New York senator in states that have open primaries."

Anyone who thinks Rush supporting Hillary is good is insane. He's explicitly said he's supporting "Operation Chaos" to keep the primary fight going and cover for McCain, and also to try and get Hillary as the nominee because the GOP is licking their chops waiting for her. All that stuff like Whitewater, her health care attempts in the 90s, Vince Foster, how she handled the Monica situation? Obama hasn't touched it, but you know the GOP would in a heartbeat. Meantime I'm wondering if there are anymore skeletons in Obama's closet that Hillary hasn't found that the GOP would, so I think all the cards are on the table. The difference is one candidate has been using the cards already (Hillary) while the other hasn't (Obama).
Guam could be critical, what with its four delegates at stake. I'm guessing someone would have to win big to get a 3-1 split out of there.


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