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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



The day in superdelegates (so far)

Posted: Sunday, May 04, 2008 2:47 PM by Mark Murray

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
This morning, Obama campaign announced the official support of Guam superdelegate Jamie Paulino, vice chair of the Guam Democratic Party.

That brings totals to:
Superdelegates: Clinton 274-254
Pledged: Obama 1492-1338
Overall: Obama 1746-1612

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Comments

Don't bet on the filly.
Unless a candidate decides issues on the basis of merit and principle, that candidate is not worthy of being considered for president. The issues in this election are too important for anything less than a principled stand on issues.

We need a leader as large as the issues.

Could this be the year that the high road becomes the choice of preference in American politics?
Hillary is having a great deal of difficulty closing the deal.  She so wanted to continue the Clinton legacy of pardoning terrorists.  Oh well.  Life is full of disappointments.  I hope to see her reaction after Obama accepts the Democratic nomination for President, and chooses a female running mate not named Hillary Clinton.  That will be priceless!

Obama in 2008.  Integrity matters and the Clintons have none.  


DO YHE MATH ... IT'S OVER

OBAMA 08
Would love to know why "Clinton" is bold where she is ahead, yet "Obama" is not, when he is clearly the front runner.
Anything SD who endorses her will only be doing it out of fear of the Clintons.  There is no way that anyone with any intelligence would endorse her, especially after her gas tax relief blunder and let's obliterate Iran.  
She lost the support for health care in 1993 by discounting the advice of people in that area.  She is now saying that she knows more than all of the leading economists in the country?  Oh my!  She needs to get a grip!
Hooray,

Thank you Jamie Paulino.

Yes, he is still stomping the old girl.

No game changer yet, Hill.
what are the superduper delegates waiting for?Why are they afraid to get off the fence?They have already told Hillary to get out of the race.Never been done before --telling somebody to get out so so they can put the Democratic party together again---you know like let's heal.Maybe they believe the Clinton votes would rather sit home than vote for Obama.
Thanks for the update.  However, in light of the numerous "articles" about Clinton why don't you write something about how despite Chuck Todd's analysis after Ohio that Clinton needed 2/3 of the delegates, Obama has actually netted more than she has.  Doesn't this spell MAJOR TROUBLE for the Clinton campaign?  Apparently the supers aren't being swayed by MSNBC's attempt to keep Clinton in the race! YEAH!!!
The Philly speech is emblematic of his most pressing problem: the gap – indeed, full-sized canyon – that's opening up between the rhetorical magic and the reality. That's the difference between a simulacrum and a genuinely great speech. The gaseous platitudes of hope and change and unity no longer seem to fit the choices of Obama's adult life. Oddly enough, the shrewdest appraisal of the senator's speechifying "magic" came from Jeremiah Wright himself. "He's a politician," said the reverend. "He says what he has to say as a politician. … He does what politicians do."

Right on!  I'm glad I'm not the only one who sees the irony of what this man preaches verses how he's lived.  
Vote for Hillary to save the Democratic party. vote for Obama to give the keys to the GOP.
Thank you Jamie Paulino!! Keep them coming!

Obama 08
Even the superdelegates are falling in line for Senator Obama. It's time for HiLlARy to pack it in.
Makes me sad that Joe S thinks that a vote for Clinton will save the Democratic Party.  

Seems the reverse to me - vote for a gas tax that creates more harm than good, a vote for misleading statements about a "windfall profits tax" that makes it sound as if she could get it passed before 300,000 construction jobs were lost, and a vote to obliterate Iran.  No need to think that a vote for Obama will give victory to the GOP; the way Clinton is behaving she is the personification of the GOP.  That is what she would have middle-class whites think -- more pandering.  For shame!
You think Obama would choose McKaskill?  I was hoping for Webb.  
The one and only benefit of the protracted race for the Dem nomination is that the entire U.S. population can now get a first hand view of the deviseness, pettiness, and sheer disingeniousness of the Clintons. When this is over, as it should have been weeks ago, perhaps Billary will crawl back into her hole never to be heard from again.
Another superdelegate.  Another day Obama maintains his overall lead.  Improbable math is looking more impossible with each passing day.

Obama '08
It is not over yet people, Hillary is going to bomb the DNC with her friends on the bylaws committee. She will do anything to win. Have we learned nothing from the Philly?
If Senator Obama wins the popular vote but not the nomination I'll vote for him anyway by writing two words, Barack Obama, on my ballot.  It's called "principle".
Amy of IL-Well said. And this subject is far from over. Problem with improprieties in New Mexico and Texas. Possibility of recount in Guam. Declining poll numbers. Appearances of fixing the nomination by putting Pressure on superdelegates to back him. Florida and Michigan. If the DNC fails to deal with all this, there will be another republican president. Mistake to count the filly out.
Hillary Clinton can't save the democratic party. She is actually dividing the party.  It is time for the Clintons yes pack it in!  President Obama!!!  YEAH!!!
I have been excited about the changes Barack Obama has been talking about.  Lately, the polls (if you believe them) say people are really starting to lean Hillary's way.  I am trying to keep an open mind so I started watching to try and find something, anything that would connect me to Hillary Clinton so if by some miracle she pulls this off, I could vote for her.  I am sorry to say but I just am not buying what she is selling.  I don't believe her.  I think she will do and say (even lie) anything to get elected.  I know Barack is not perfect.  He even says so.  I am just what curious that so many people are not seeing her for what she really is.....just another politician.
Super delegates should vote independently of any current vote.  Why have them if all they do is vote with the person with the (very slim) lead?  I think they are starting to see the veil come off Obama and as he is vetted, he is weak and indecisive.  Just what we need-another four years of the same.
I agree with many comments I have read on MSNBC lately.  You all have really pushed Hillary.  I'm not sure why, but we will not listen to you.  If I wanted unfair and unbalanced I would be watching Fox News.  I have sent many e-mails lately to MSNBC.  I guess I now know why I switched to CNN.  They are the "MOst Trusted Name in News"  AKA not tabloid crap, and biased.  Dan Abrahms and his special report on Rev. Wright?  Give me a break.  I have now noticed First Read is also Hillary sympathetic.  I have no sympathy for her, she brought it all on.  Go Obama!
I agree with many comments I have read on MSNBC lately.  You all have really pushed Hillary.  I'm not sure why, but we will not listen to you.  If I wanted unfair and unbalanced I would be watching Fox News.  I have sent many e-mails lately to MSNBC.  I guess I now know why I switched to CNN.  They are the "MOst Trusted Name in News"  AKA not tabloid crap, and biased.  Dan Abrahms and his special report on Rev. Wright?  Give me a break.  I have now noticed First Read is also Hillary sympathetic.  I have no sympathy for her, she brought it all on.  Go Obama!
the filly came in second.....
I think if the other undecided superdelegates are still wasting time Hillary should just do the right thing and endorse Obama.

Maybe that will earn her a prominent position like DNC chairlady
Tuesday Clinton will have come from behind to win Indiana she very well may win North Carolina as well. The people are beginning to realize that electing the president is a serious matter. This is not American Idol. With all due respect to Obama suporters, this is about who can beat McCain in the general election, who can carry big states who can carry important key constituencies. Its not a popularity contest, you may not like to hear that but Its about the democtrats winning. This isnt your politial science class at college and Obama is not your professor. This is the real world If she keeps winning the supers will do what they should do and nominate her. Personnaly I'd love to see Obama as VP, he needs some experience in the way the real world works.
Hey MSNBC. Obama may have gotten a pillow from you guys a little while back, but you guys have been giving Clinton a king-size air mattress for more than 2 months now. Save all of your reporters and anchors some time and just run Hillary's campaign ads back to back. Much more cost effective, and you guys can catch some well-deserved rest from all your hand-wringing over "Will Obama EVER close the door on Rev. Wright?"
Just an even split in delegates and superdelegates will end with Obama WAY AHEAD.

She will not get superdelegates by simply asserting that she's more electable, even if she were.  She has to demonstrate conclusively that Obama is unelectable.

Ain't gonna happen, folks.

We get to watch the rest of the primary voters vote, but it doesn't really matter.  I'm glad they're excited, though.

Time to end foolish pandering and "Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" Clinton (so much like McCain).
Obama's campaign says that, with the inclusion of Jamie Paulino, "this brings the total number of superdelegates to endorse Barack Obama to 257. Senator Obama is 275 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination."

Since PA, Obama has also picked up more Superdelegates than Clinton. Yet your total seems to continue to show a 20 superdelegate gap.

As many are looking to MSNBC's numbers as authentic - a measure of the respect journalists have for Chuck Todd by the way - can you explain why your numbers seem to be lagging behind the Obama campaign's numbers?
"Vote for Hillary to save the Democratic party. vote for Obama to give the keys to the GOP."
Joe S, Raleigh, NC
...Are you kidding me? I know many people supporting Clinton are uneducated and can't tell the truth from lies...You are one prime example Joe...
Clinton...will do anything to win and she is here to "steal" the election just like Bush did in 2004. I bet you voted for Bush then too!!
How else is Clinton going to win?? Listen up people...this is OVER. People have voted already...and Obama is our leader... CLINTON CAN'T CATCH UP AND HER ONLY WAY IS TO STEAL...ARE YOU GOING TO LET HRC STEAL THE ELECTION AGAIN??

I guess as long as there are people like JOE out there, it's never over!
When Obama pulls ahead in superdelegates, will Hillary concede?  Not bloody likely.  As long as she has enough contributions to pay her consultants, they'll make her stay.  After all, what will the big corporations do if she doesn't win?

She's still planning some more dirty tricks and cheap shots, or she'd do the honorable thing and help Obama beat the pants off of McCain.
As much as the press likes to predict doomsday for Obama it so happens that Don Cazayoux --who was running for a House seat in a long-held Republican territory-- had been attacked in TV ads by the GOP using Rev. Wright as an issue and trying to link him to Wright and Obama.  CNN claimed the superdelegates were concerned that if Cazayoux lost, it meant the Rev. Wright debacle was effecting all democrats running for upcoming seats, meaning Obama was to blame.
Well, guess what folks? The Democrat brutally attacked by the GOP over Rev. Wright in the sleaziest ads ever WON the election in Republican stronghold.

Doesn't that victory say it all? The proof is in the pudding
Filly broke down at Finish line and was put to sleep.  Hmmm.
Here's the true facts.
  Obama will lose the white vote 62% to 37%.  With over 1.5 million people expected to vote, and with the white vote making up almost two thirds of the expected vote, this equates to 620,000 to Obama's 370,000 votes.  A difference of 250,000 votes. Hillary will lose the black vote 10% to 90%. With the black turn out expected to be 33% of the overall vote, this equates to 450,000 to Hillary's 50,000. A difference of 400,000 votes. The hispanic vote makes up a very small percentage of the expected vote. With that being said, Obama will win N.C by about 150,000 votes which is 10% of the expected turn out. Depending on how the hispanic vote break Obama will win by 8 to 10 points. You can take that to the bank.
If hussein Obama is nomintee don't hold general election in November save money give McCain the keys for the white house
the Clintons are done! This is huge when you think about where the Hispanic vote has been going since the onset of this election.

GO OBAMA
OBAMA WILL WIN THIS PRIMARY RACE AND OBAMA WILL WIN THE GENERAL ELECTION.
To anyone saying they won't vote if their candidate doesn't succeed in the nomination, please remember that in November you can WRITE-IN the name of your preferred choice (HOPEFULLY OBAMA!). Do not sit back in what may be the most important election of this new century! Please write the name of your choice clearly on a piece of paper, take it into the booth to ensure you don't misspell, and excercise your constitutional right.

From now on, please follow the Paul vs Clinton trial. The selling of America at Clinton's bargain prices!

ObamaRican 08


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