ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



First thoughts: The math game

Posted: Monday, May 05, 2008 9:17 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The Math Game: Both candidates seemed very exhausted during their morning show appearances on TODAY and Morning Joe. And that probably isn’t surprising -- tomorrow is the last BIG primary day. Despite the fact that another month of contests is still on the docket, nearly half of all remaining delegates will get handed out tomorrow. And the math will be a lot more crystal clear after tomorrow, both in delegates and the popular vote. Following Guam, there are now 404 pledged delegates up grabs, and 187 of them will be decided on Tuesday. Plus, per our count, there are 268 undeclared superdelegates. Here are the basics of what each candidate needs: Assuming he wins half of the delegates tomorrow (93), Obama needs just 38% of ALL remaining delegates to get to the magic number of 2,025. If Clinton wins 94 delegates on Tuesday, she will need 66% of all remaining delegates. In addition, assuming that delegate split tomorrow, then Clinton will need 85% of all remaining PLEDGED delegates to catch Obama for the lead in that category. Moreover, if Clinton simply wanted to cut Obama's pledged delegate lead to 100, she'd need to win 62% of all remaining delegates after tomorrow. As we've noted before, the math is certainly difficult for Clinton.

*** Enough baggage to fill a plane: There’s also plenty baggage going into tomorrow… Clinton can't name a single economist to back up her gas-tax plan. While it's easy to dismiss the idea that economists are heartless folks, isn't one of the chief criticisms of Bush is that he doesn't listen to experts? Also, Clinton defended her "obliterate" Iran comment on Sunday, but refused to reuse the word (doesn't that suggest she DOES regret the choice of words?) Meanwhile, Obama may have to explain at some point his quid pro quo with the Teamsters; how does one who is promising a new transparency in politics promise something that the general public has to find out about via reporters asking tough questions? And then there’s Wright, Wright, Wright. When Obama can get through a TV interview without the name Rev. Wright coming up, that's when he'll know he's out of the woods. So far, he's not out of the woods.

*** Poll watch: A new USA Today/Gallup poll out today is disastrous for Obama. He now trails Clinton by seven points and trails her by five on the question of who would be the more electable nominee. A Clinton sweep, and the CW on Obama could absolutely reverse course over night. Then again, an Obama win in just one of the two states and he probably stops the national poll slide. Meanwhile, the latest New York Times/CBS poll has better numbers for Obama: He has a 12-point lead over Clinton; a strong majority approves of the way in which he handled the Wright controversy; and both he and Clinton sport double-digit leads over McCain in hypothetical general election match-ups. 

*** Bill’s excellent adventure: If there was ever a day to do a day-on-the-trail story about Bill Clinton, today's the day As we mentioned last week, Bill Clinton makes a whopping nine stops in North Carolina today, most of them in rural parts of the state. The stops? Elizabeth City, New Bern, Jacksonville, Smithfield, Zebulon, Louisburg, Henderson, Roxboro, and Raleigh. As the Washington Post puts it, “After a series of awkward moments and costly missteps while campaigning for his wife, Clinton has finally discovered a role that suits him. He's become the campaign's self-proclaimed ‘ambassador to small-town America,’ traveling to places where the mere arrival of his motorcade signals a significant moment in local history, where his charm and affability carry substantial weight among voters.” 

*** The weekend in delegates: Obama picked up four superdelegates over the weekend, to Clinton’s net of zero. Obama got the backing of New Mexico Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colon and three add-on superdelegates -- former Maryland Gov. Parris Glendening, former South Carolina Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum and Guam add-on Jamie Paulino (after Obama won the Pacific island territory by seven votes). Paulino beat out Clinton backer Cecilia Mafnas, who was previously the vice chair and counted into our superdelegate count. Evening things out, Clinton picked up the other Maryland add-on: former Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. Obama is also expected to pick up the three Illinois add-on superdelegates today around 2:00 pm after the Illinois Democratic Party’s committee meets to officially name the trio. (Note: The Obama campaign announced Kalyn Free of Oklahoma as another super, but we’d already had her on the list as an Obama supporter.) The Delegate Counts: SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 273-254; PLEDGED: Obama 1,492-1,338; OVERALL: Obama 1,746-1,611. There are 268 undeclared superdelegates. Since the Pennsylvania primary: It's Obama +17, Clinton +11; Since Super Tuesday, Feb. 5: It's Obama +84, Clinton +13; Since Junior Super Tuesday, March 4: It's Obama +41, Clinton +20.

*** Dems win another GOP seat: The questions about the GOP brand and the problems rank-and-file Republican congressional candidates are feeling will continue to linger after the party lost yet another special election Saturday -- this one in Louisiana, where Don Cazayoux (D) beat Woody Jenkins 49%-46 (R) to replace Richard Baker (R). The GOP will be hitting the panic button furiously if the Dems win another upcoming special congressional election in Mississippi district that’s 60%-plus GOP.

*** McCain in the Tar Heel state: McCain, who probably is getting tired of getting the also-ran type of coverage these days, heads to North Carolina, where he's likely to grab some of the media coattails from the Clinton-Obama race.

*** On the trail: Elsewhere, Clinton begins her day in North Carolina (in Greenville) and then travels to Indiana (hitting Merrillville, New Albany, and Evansville); Obama begins his day in Evansville, IN, then goes to North Carolina (for a discussion with workers in Durham) and then returns to Indiana (for a rally in Indianapolis; and Michelle Obama -- like Bill Clinton -- is in North Carolina.
 
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 1 day
Countdown to West Virginia: 8 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 15 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 183 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 260 days
 
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Comments

News flash…it is pandering stupid.  Hey Hill, when are you going to pass this facade?  Can’t you folks see what is going on?  If she wants to attempt, and it’s unlikely Bush would sign it, any suspension of the gas tax for this summer, she would have to get Congress to act immediately.  Then if this miracle were to happen, the transportation fund would go almost a year with and a half before the windfall profits legislation she wants would once again receive the monies.  There is no way in hell Bush is going to sign off, and I bet the Repukes will battle extra hard, any windfall profits tax increase; even he she was President.

So wake up all you Clinton moronic voters.  This is pandering and another Clinton gimmick.
Time to take the high road.
As Guam goes so goes the country.  There is an ingrained Guamish folklore that states -  "When the shell and the bird are in line and the year does end in nine then he of a darker skin will be in the house of white in Washington". As Guam goes so goes the country.
The "Morning Joe" show is unwatchable.  When will MSNBC recognize that they need an adult to anchor that program?

I don't care if Joe is a Republican, I can't watch him because of his sophomoric behavior.
The only thing of relevence I saw regarding the presidential race in this blog entry was Obama had moved to within 19 superdelegates, and is scheduled to get a few more today.

I'M RICH ... GOD BLESS ME

HILLARY CLINTON
I love to read your morning updates.  I have one question, though... Why bother devoting an entire section to Bill Clinton's schedule?  (You cover it in the campaign stop summary at the end...)

Also, maybe Obama would 'turn the corner' if reporters focused on his policy statements more.  Even HRC has said it's time to stop focusing on Wright.

I'm intrigued by this 'gas tax holiday' idea -- because it cannot be achieved by decree once a person becomes the nominee (and it has *no* congressional support).  A great story for MSNBC would be to outline whether this is a fantasy (or pandering, or a lie to get votes) or whether there is actually some procedure she could follow to make it a reality.

Also, I'd like to see some follow-up on Campaign Promises from earlier primaries... Maybe a "Where are they now?" type of piece.
This horse race ends in May, the truth is one candidate will get the pledged delegate majority in May, and yes Superdelegates can vote their conscience but no never in the history of this system have they overturned the pledged delegate majority leader.
Lets just hope whoever finishes second doesn't get politically euthanized by his or her party.
What's the gas mileage Bill's motorcade?  Pretty low I bet - there you go burning up my fuel.
My predictions :::

Indiana: Clinton wins by 4 points.
N. Carolina: Obama wins by 8 points.

The sad story here will be that the media will paint this as a 'victory' for Hillary.  It seems that the media loves her 'comeback kid' meme.

I think it's bunk.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
The only reporters that I have seen ask Senator Obama about Rev Wright over the past couple of days are NBC and MSNBC reporters.  YOU are the ones still asking the question.  A little intellectual honesty here please.
No. Obama, can't get through an interview without ALL THE "white boys", TODD, MATTHEWS, SCARBOROUGH, BUCHANAN, and RUSSERT CONSTANTLY Bringing it up Rev. Wright EVERYTIME you interview him or even talk about Barack in passing.  You ALL have tried your "locker room racist best" to lambast him while LETTING "your" candidates CLINTON and McCain have a pass on ALL their LIES, MISSTEPS and RACE BAITING.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/al-giordano/operation-anti-chaos-the_b_99965.html
1.  If the gas tax holiday is such a great idea

2.  If it is something that can be done for this summer

3.  If the people are so desperate for immediate relief

Why hasn't Clinton started the ball rolling already?  She hasn't even introduced a bill?
Please explain how Hillary has gained 13 superdelegates since Super Tuesday, Feb. 5,
BUT
gained 20 since Junior Super Tuesday, March 4.

Does that mean she has gained a total of 33?
If there was ever a day to do a day-on-the-trail story about Bill Clinton.

If i were the Clinton people, I would keep some pills nearby to keep him calm...

I'm not woried about the democrats gaining a few more seats in the house.  After two years of the worst congress in history, people will finally get the message when gas hits $6.00 a gallon and a loaf of bread hits $6.00 and congress doesnothing about it.  Then people will realize that thi "greening" of America is nothing but a sham and the GOP will ride herd in 2010.

When you have a leader like Nancy Pelosi in the house, you have pretty much hit rock bottom.

With all the baggage that Hillary "Republican" Clinton has been spewing forth lately it's a shame the media isn't hammering her more, the way they did with Obama and Wright.  Just goes to show the media does not want this contest to end just so they can make more money.

Go Obama!
Why no one in MSM is talking about this. Search Google on Hillary's former pastor Rev. Willam Procanick.
When the Rev. William Procanick put his hand on the Bible during his sex-abuse trial in Oneida County Court earlier this year, he swore to tell the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
But as the former Clinton pastor was sentenced Friday to three years in prison for inappropriately touching a 7-year-old girl at his home last March, Judge Michael L. Dwyer said Procanick sacrificed his honesty the day he testified.
"As a minister of God, you got on the stand and you lied," Dwyer told Procanick, the 54-year-old former pastor of Resurrection Assembly of God church on Kirkland Avenue.
A jury found Procanick guilty Jan. 22 of first-degree sexual abuse and endangering the welfare of a child.
I love it when two polls say exactly opposite things, because I feel like it reminds the public that the media  is full of it... In the media's current state, it's nothing more than a mouthpiece.  Gone are the days of valuable journalism backed up with real research and meaningful story lines.  Now, it's all about who can pull the cheap trick shot.  When did the media decide to let the far right control the tactics?  That's the REAL question that should be asked every day?  Since when did the far-right politics of deception and mudslinging because standard media practice?  
If you haven's seen this yet, your missing it. Just google to  floridademandsrepresentation . Then speak up, and make your voice heard.
I'm really curious about why Tim Russert didn't ask Barack Obama about his appearance on MTP in January 2006 (yes 2006) where Obama said he would serve out his first Senate term in full and that he would not run for president or vice president in 2008.  Tim Russert always goes back and points out lies and changes of position and asks candidates about them. I guess it's a rhetorical issue, because it's been clear for months that NBC and MSNBC will go to any length to support Obama's candidacy and to dismiss and demean Senator Clinton, including gender abuse.  If Obama receives the nomination, he should appoint Chris Matthews, Keith Olbermann, Eugene Robinson, Andrea Mitchell, David Shuster, Rachel Maddow, and Chuck Todd to posts in his administration if they want them.  I wonder why Shuster hasn't made any remarks about the Obamas using their young children in the campaign yesterday.  I dare him to say what he said about Chelsea Clinton about the Obama children.  
Facts are a stubborn thing.  Obama cannot close his 20 year old relationship with Wright because there is so much video evidence against it.  On the TV program THE VIEW, Obama declared that Reverend Wright accepted that his views of America were inappropriate and mischaracterized, that his words had offended many people.  Then weeks later Wright goes on a national Hate America Tour?  This was either a blatant lie; Obama using clever semantics to avoid the main issue.  Or worse, Obama was fooled by Wright which is kind of scary.  That a possible next president can be played by a character such as Wright.  Check the video evidence yourselves.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6J7yJ9R5p0

And if the video is not enough: Read this in politico.com which calls on Obama to state the truth.  
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10043.html
Goods about the special election in Louisiana.  We don't need more Woodys in congress.
In the interest of Democrat Unity, I will only comment on the polls showing both Obama and Clinton beating McCain by double digits.  I'm not surprised, as even by republican parents are not comfortable with Senator Grumpy old Man wearing Depends.
Anyone else find it oxymoronic that Rush Limbaugh is fronting "Operation Chaos", yet Hillary is arguing popular vote counts?

I hear Rush has a new book out, "Hacking democracies for Dummies"
I just watched Hilary pandering on good morning America,She talks so much about other issues when asked directly whether this oil tax gas break will work....she knows it will not, but she hopes her supporters will still suport her....??? I honestly do not understand her supporters...do you want America for America, or America for the Clintons>>>...Democrats, what do you guys believe in...honestly....Hilary did the same mnistake about her healthcare proposal, she did not listen to any expert advice...well, we all know what happened to health care....
she used the same stanz for the war...and claimed she had read al intelligent reports, and voted for it????
Americans, honestly , dont you fell pandered to?????
BTW, where is My candidates good morning america bit, you only have hilary here.....i am tired of being pundered to..i want to listen to integrity...and speeches that come from the heart>>.......
Chuck, curious why on poll watch, you jump on the poll which is least favorable to Obama.  All week you guys have been talking about the Gallup poll which had Hilliary up by 4.  Now Obama is up by 4 but you chose not to mention.  You bias is shining thru harshly.  What happen to fair & balanced.  You being a numbers person, I am surprised how off course you have fallen.
America! Stand up and be counted! We can change America - but only if we work TOGETHER!

Obama '08/'12
'...Bill Clinton makes a whopping nine stops in North Carolina today, most of them in rural parts of the state...'

A CON MAN selling SNAKE OIL

Slick Willie murdered the Carolina furniture and clothing industries with his NAFTA and WTO sell outs

He destroyed manufacturing in Indiana as well as mortally wounding organized labor

At least he made $109 MILLIOM out of selling out the American working class

TURN the PAGE

THROW THE BUMS OUT !

DON'T BRING THE BUMS BACK !
EVERYONE SHOULD LOOK at the polls more closely.  Rasmussen AND Gallup have Obama trending up and Clinton trending down for several days running now.  And, Obama is trending up vs. McCain, too.  And, that data includes polling from 3 or 4 days ago, before Obama began to turn the corner ..... so the current snapshot is likely even rosier than it appears in the tracking polls.  This means even a split decision Tuesday will be followed by Obama gains and Clinton losses.  And, does anyone really give Hillary a chance in NC?  Undecideds are unlike to break for her there as heavily as PA because at least 1/3 of the undecideds are black.  It'll be Obama by 8 in NC and probably a narrow Clinton win in IN -- 4- 6 points.
Man, I really hate to pile on here, but "disastrous" (re one poll, while another shows big differences the other way) and, in another posting here, "desperate".  Are you kidding me?

Chubby Russert spent 20 minutes of my Sunday morning rehashing the preacher business and getting the same answers we've been hearing.  Yeah, we're all tired of it.  Russert, you are much better than that---though certainly nowhere as bad as ABC--which got less than 3 minutes of HRC running over Boy George.

I hope the folks in Indiana figure it out; I think they're a smarter bunch than (sorry) their confreres (gratuitous elitist word, deliberately) in PA or OH and will have figured outwhere the Clintons' (and Republicans, not that there is much difference) real interest lies.

Call the track doctor.  It's time to put the filly down.
isnt it funny how hilary suporters really have nothing to say about their candidate , when asked facts, but have alot of crap to say about Obama, based on their ignorance and bias.......are these the people choosing the next POTUS????
God Bless America.
It's going to be a pleasure watching these "has beens" moan and cry when Obama beats McCain.
I would love to know why Wright keeps coming up in Obama interviews when a large majority of people are satisfied with how he's handled the issue, yet an even larger majority DON'T KNOW about John McCain and Reverend Hagee.  Why is that?  Why does McCain get a pass on an endorsement he ACTIVELY sought, yet Obama gets blasted because the guy was his pastor whom he's already distanced himself from?

I don't care so much that the stories sometimes are weighted one way or the other from day to day, but when one party gets a pass on an issue that other one constantly gets hammered on, there's a serious double-standard happening in the newwrooms across the country.  What happened to fairness in journalism?
Chuck
Is the whole MSNBC team including you and now Mika, who used to be somewhat more balanced - going over the top so Hillary can continue on - Why do you say the resutls of the polls are disasterous when Barack is up 50% to 38% in NYTimes/CBS poll?  Why are you spinning it as all negative for Obama?  Thsi seems to be what all the pundits and media are doing - Hioping he will fail!
It is really outrageous and distrubing how manipulative and unfortunately persuasive the media has become to the public opnion. Why is the media now rooting for Barack to fail? It is like all of you watching a dog fight and encouraging the underdog to be mangled chewed up and spit out - so your bet pays off
Sell our vote for gasoline
=The oil companies win again....

I thought the ECONOMY was the issue..as well as JOBS

Anybody agree???
If Senator Clinton refuses to listen to economists on the gas tax holiday maybe she'll listen to one of her Superdelegates, Gov. Patterson of NY?

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/5743974.html
Hillary the carpetbagger U.S. Senator from NY said she "wasn't interested in running for President" up until she declared her candidacy.  You hypocritcal racist bigots only see a problem with Barack because he is an African American.  Period.
I love how the economists who have decried Hillary's pandering gas tax cut proposal are "elites" from whom she wishes to distance herself, while advisors on Iran's political leadership are experts in the field.

Is anyone really buying this crap?
The gas tax holiday as a defining issue for the campaigns speaks volumes...one candidate says anything she needs to to win...one candidate tells truth to power.  I'll take the latter.

She thinks she can buy votes for $30.  Heck, I'll send you $50 to vote for Obama (not really, but only because I don't have $50 for everyone who needs it and  because it would be unethical).  Oh but its ethical when Clinton does it ::eyeroll::.

I continue to have faith.

(ps, Joe, Buchanan doesn't care if Hillary offends all of us by going nuclear, he's a conservative Republican as are you.  Thank God for Mika)
Vote for Hillary to save the Democratic Party. Vote for Obama to give the keys to the GOP.
the math game...thats funny...we all know democrats cant' handle math or they wouldn't think taking 50% or more of our earnings to fund the losers of the world adds up
Hey, start your morning off with a laugh.  Swallow your coffee first.

After 2 faint, Clinton cracks joke about making 'em swoon
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D90F2L7O0&show_article=1
A new USA Today/Gallup poll out today is disastrous for Obama. He now trails Clinton by seven points and trails her by five on the question of who would be the more electable nominee.... Meanwhile, the latest New York Times/CBS poll has better numbers for Obama: He has a 12-point lead over Clinton...

Okay, Firstread, can you please explain how Obama's 12 point lead as registered in the NY TIMES/CBS poll isn't disastrous news for HILLARY, given the media trials and tribulations of the past two weeks for Obama?




I stopped watching Morning Joe too. I know that republicans would like to run against another Clinton that's toting around a lot of baggage in a "change" election, but Joe's, Buchanan's, Hannity's, O'Reilly's, & Rush's kissing up to Hillary makes me want to puke. These shows are stupid & full of one-sided opinions...not once do they put an economist or historian on the show. Instead Rudolph Scarborough is the only expert blabbering on while a puzzled Mika just nods & ponders about something weak to come back with. Oh boy, if these fools pass for intellectuals then we're all doomed. Cable news sucks!
After watching Michelle Obama on CSPAN this weekend, I see why you guys don't cover her, except for taking one sentence out of context. She will be the strongest, most intelligent first lady this country has ever had. If she got half the attention Bill does, Hillary would be long gone.
What your polls don't show you is how tired we are of Hillary and Bill and all the drama and lies.  Why don't you poll Americans how tired they are with the slanted media coverage?  In my poll, Obama is winning by 100%
After watching the tirade on Morning Joe this morning, it is my last.  Joe Scarborough has no respect for woman. Had I been Mika, I would have walked off the set. All he thinks about is Hillary!!!! He actually believes her lies!!!!! He is , an elite, a condescening person!!!! Pat B. lives in the past. That was years ago, let's get on with reality. It is very plain to see anyone on MSNBC dislikes Obama. It is so sad that they do not give equal time to each candidate.How obvious can you be???? Please get Scarborough off this show and bring in someone who respects people.  
Vote with your remote. Ratings equals money, money talks and, well you get the point.
These hack reporters will continue to fuel the fire because it keeps them employed.  It's the media that's throwing the kitchen sink at Obama.  I can't even listen to them anymore, it's sickening. How about focusing on what really matters? Let's figure out how we're going to fix this country. How about putting some dignity back into reporting. The MSM is hell bent on tearing this country apart.
Fairness in journalism?  What's that?


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