More on that Louisiana special

Posted: Monday, May 05, 2008 1:29 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: Congress, 2008, Obama

From NBC's Mark Murray
A smart take from Hotline: "Obama survived one critical test this weekend. No, not the Russert interview. The LA-06 special, a closely watched election where GOPers poured tons of money on ads trying to link conservative Dem Cazayoux to Obama in an attempt to nationalize the race. It didn't work out as planned. To be sure, GOPer Jenkins was a flawed candidate, making this an imperfect test of Obama's down-ballot strength. The 5/13 special in MS-01, which features a stronger GOPer, will be a better indicator. Even so, if Obama can't be used effectively as a wedge: 1) when he's at his weakest and 2) in a CD carried by Bush w/ 59%, what does this say about GOP chances to hold their open seats in more competitive districts?"

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Comments

Maybe Obama is more appealing to all than the GOP realize. It could hurt them in the fall. Maybe Hanity and Limbaugh are telling people to vote only to lose them; it could be that they look at Obama (and Clinton to a degree) and say that I like that over what the GOP is serving.

S.B. Stein E.B. NJ (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:39 PM)

What it says it the the GOP doesn't have a snowflakes chance in Hell at keeping all of their seats, let alone, winning the General Election.

If I was a betting woman, I'd bet on Barack Obama as the next POTUS.

Believe that.

Vicki in the sky with diamonds (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:39 PM)

But then inversely how is it fair to make it an indicator of Obama's coattails when it is one of the most Republican CDs around and he is at his weakest ?

Benjamin (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:39 PM)

With Hillary out of the picture--pending a little courage from superdelegates--Obama will be much more helpful downticket.

Dave, CA (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:41 PM)

I have to compain here. You have one Obama story from today that starts with "Obama Survived..." and SEVERAL about the Clinton campaign. Obama is doing WAY more than surviving... he's WINNING!

Kristen, Austin, TX (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:42 PM)

More double-talk from "the Clintons" here:

Bill Clinton on Gas Taxes: He Raised 'Em in '93, then Opposed a "Vacation" in 2000

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/05/bill-clinton-on.html

Nashville_fan (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:43 PM)

To Chuck:

It Is the 5th of May, the day before a primary and we still haven't heard any news about campaign funds for Clinton or Obama. Could you please do a blog topic on this? It would be yet another factor to help voters and superdelegates see how things are progressing.

thanks!

Matt, Boise, Idaho (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:43 PM)

Another great point for supers but not carried by MSM; Obama will be an asset for downballot dems in november. Moreover, I believe Clinton would do detriment to the downballot as her husband lost the majority while in office.

T (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:43 PM)

"To be sure, GOPer Jenkins was a flawed candidate, making this an imperfect test of Obama's down-ballot strength. The 5/13 special in MS-01, which features a stronger GOPer, will be a better indicator."

So pathetic. If Jenkins had won you guys would be screaming how Obama is killing the down ticket, but when the Dem wins you say "oh the Rep was flawed". Just like Mississippi and Wyoming were completely ignored because they were "expected" to go for Obama, so they don't really count.

BL, Cincinnati OH (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:44 PM)

As Michele Obama has pointed out Repeatedly, everytime Barack gets Close to the imaginary bar, it get's moved again & again. Thanx Mark Murray, 1 of the Many Bar movers @ MSNBC.

I personally hope the Stench from being up Hillary's Ass, Never comes off.

Rick,Ky (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:44 PM)

that mean obama is the strongest canditate ever

jb,omaha,NE (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:44 PM)

Mr. Todd: You do not have to paint your candidate so rosy every chance you get. You don't have to convince the rich, "educated" to support more of your candidate than they have alienated the poor, bitter bunch.

fat cat, Chicago (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:46 PM)

Also Gallup has Obama up by 5 today nationally. Not sure where you all are getting your figures.

Kristen, Austin, TX (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:46 PM)

I don't think it's fair to gauge Obama's strength based on a race in a strong republican district, especially in Mississippi.

Derek Smart (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:47 PM)

IMPORTANT analysis: PLEASE display.

People are saying that the prolonged race is hurting Obama, and that Hillary is aiding McCain (in the wrong way).

The reality is that the greatest beneficiary of the long race is OBAMA. Clinton has actually helped Obama go through a 'mock exam' of what he expects from the republicans. So, he is now better prepared for McCain than if the race had ended in, say, February.

Obama is new, and was not well known. The longer Clinton stays in the race, the greater is the opportunity for people to know Obama more and better.

The loser is Clinton, of course, because despite all her efforts, she will not get the nomination. Ironically, 57% of democrats think Obama will get nomination as opposed to the 37% for clinton. This means that even if some people are voting for clinton, they already know the likely outcome - Obama will be the nominee.

McCain loses too because Clinton has already exposed those issues which he should have used during the Fall election compaign.

So, let the race go up to June (not Denvar), for the benefit of Obama, and the Democrats.

sem, VA (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:48 PM)

I guess we should all go and find out what every one minster, Rabay, Prest, ... say and do and make it hte issue for every candedate what is the matter with you people?

souzan, Alexandria, VA (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:48 PM)

FR can't seem to praise Obama without somehow putting a dig in against him that the repugnant one was a flawed candidate. From McCain on down the whole putrid republican party is nothing but flawed self serving candidates. And Hillary "Republican" Clinton is just another flawed ally of theirs. Where are the FR stories showing how flawed a candidate McCain and his cronies are?

Go Obama!

Eric, Salinas, CA (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:50 PM)

Anybody there want to note that Obama has gone UP 9 points (!!!) in the Gallup tracking over the past 5 days. The Wright impact was fleeting. Why is no one noting that as much as they noted the fleeting impact itself.

Geoff in Brooklyn (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:50 PM)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/05/clinton-in-2005-i-agree-w_n_100168.html

I will say anything to get a vote.
Where is clinton v Paul???

Get it together MSNBC. You guys are getting to be more and more like FOX

Nj (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:51 PM)

I hate to say this but Chuck isn't going to say anything about the campaign funds before tomorrow. That would surely put Hillary in bad light. and Chuck doesn't want that. He probably won't even post this.

Sue in La (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:51 PM)

We here in Louisiana gave Obama a resounding victory of 17 % over Billary in our presidential primary. Many think that he might just be the one to turn Louisna from a red state to a blue state this November. Geaux ,( "go" in Cajun) Obama!

Cindi in Louisiana (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:51 PM)

Let's not forget Denny Hastert's Illinois district. This is one of the most Republican districts in the country, the birthplace of Ronald Reagan. Democrat Bill Foster went up against Republican Jim Oberweis. Foster asked Obama to campaign for him. He did not ask Hillary Clinton. Obama campaigned for Foster in this heavily Republican district. The result: big victory for Bill Foster!

Obama has coattails. Hillary Clinton does not have pantssuittails.

Obama in 2008. Integrity matters and the Clintons have none.

Sick of corruption, sick of the Clintons (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:52 PM)

Great seat pickup for the Dems.! The Republicans are really going to have a hard time securing seats in this election!

http://www.politivine.com

Politivine(SC) (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:52 PM)

All this talk when it's been over for a very .. very long time.
Ratings ... Ratings ...
Keep the story alive at all cost .. I hope when this is over that the Media gets what the have comin to them!

Terry Ohio (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:52 PM)

Maybe the good folks in LA are fed up too. Boot the corrupt crooks out!! YES YOU CAN!!!

Zoolie (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:53 PM)

Obama won in Guam, stood up for a new member of the Congress in Louisiana and HE won! So why all the negative press?

Not ONE of my comments saying why MSNBC is complicit with Hillary and on her bandwagon. Let's see if this one does!

Lee, Raleigh, NC (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:54 PM)

Let's remember this man disgraced this country in adultery within the White House walls. Also please pay attention to the Peter Paul vs. the Clinton's that has yet to strike the media screens. The scandals Bill Clinton has been involved in is unmatched in American Presidential history.

Unfortunately, history has a habit of repeating itself.

Terry (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:55 PM)

The GOP drove away more people than they thought they gained.

If Childers loses, it will be because:

1. He's a weaker candidate, not because the GOP linked him with Obama

2. He directly or indirectly distanced himself from Obama. That was typical Democrat cowardice and the GOP exploited it in a second ad - obviously with the goal of peeling off Childers support among AA and Obama supporters.

Diamond (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:55 PM)

The Louisiana special gives me some encouragement as I pick up my lunch pail and head out for my evening shift at a local psychiatric hospital. Re:money raised in April, I expect the reason we are not hearing about is that Obama probably did significantly less well than before despite feverish fundraising via internet. I remain a solid Obama supporter and small gift giver. Bounce back to the lead in Gallup announced just now by Mitchell is also good news (as if the stunning dogwoods here are not enough to raise spirits.)

Hermine Clouser Middletown PA (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:56 PM)

omg-an article that did NOT mention you know who, guess MSNBC must have felt they made the point in the excessive programing during the weekend. I don't hold out much hope that that is a trend that will prevail in primetime. No more "former Pastor" stuff please, David G, Chris M, Dan A, give it a rest. Everyone on earth has heard it and heard it again, thanks to you and Fox noise.

Jean WNY (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:56 PM)

The GOPs are toast in November, there is no way they can come out of this election cycle winning any reasonable seat. They are bankrupt of good ideas and i don't see how they will beat Obama come November.

Even when Obama wasn't at his best the GOPs can't still beat him. This alone tells me of abinger of what to come in November.

Bee (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:56 PM)

Obama can win Louisiana in the general election. Hillary can't. I hear from my Catholic friends and relatives down in Cajun land who have been Republicans for years that they are considering Obama. The white "hard shell" Baptists in the northern part of the state are another story. The Democratic party should not write-off Louisiana. Howard Dean's 50 state strategy can payoff there. Especially if the party can run ads with the anti-Catholic rants of Rev. Hagee, coupled with McCain embracing him, in the southern part of the state.

nuanced (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 1:57 PM)

Not too specifically related to this post, but more to the larger point of 'perceived bias' in reporting here.

Can we understand that many times the previous total in real cash money has been raised, and spent, in this primary? I take that as a given---several hundred million, perhaps? Let's say 'yes.'

Who gets this money, ultimately? I assume that this money goes to ad people, but ultimately to television and radio stations, which make the rest of their money by 'selling air time' to advertisers of this or that (ya gotta love that Head-On...see Doonesbury yesterday). Not only are 'locals' reaping incredibly unprecedented amounts of $$, but so are, voila, our friends at cable (and other) networks.

So, tell me, is there a 'complete divorce' between the 'news' (politics) division and the 'business' side of cable TV? I am sure some kind of sanctimonious 'rules' are in place, but at the end of the day, you can't tell me that the talking heads don't know where their paychecks come from (much like we would all like to know where Clinton foundation $$ comes from).

In print, I think we understand that there is something about 'the brand' which suggests that integrity is essential. No such 'value' seems ascribed to 'cable' or 'internet' journalism.

So, I am not saying Todd, Scarborough, or anyone else is in the tank for one side or another---but, don't they 'win' by prolonging the contest? Short-term thinking as I am sure a renewed positive interest in politics would keep such folks 'on air' as well.

Long way of saying 'the media' are at least as lazy and sloppy as the rest of us and bear some responsiblity for not allowing debate to take place on a high plane. The self-interest angle needs to be explored.

iowan (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 2:02 PM)

Why are 95% of the posts pro-Obama? I know that most of his supporters don't have jobs, but even this seems a little high.

Ted Striker, NJ (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 2:03 PM)

Senator Clinton needs over 77% of the remaining votes and super delegates to win.

Game over, the fat lady has sung, it's time to unite behind the winner and fight together against the Republican nominee.

No matter how the "values" voters vote, the gay population will still be 5-10% of the population and they will be living among us as tax paying productive members of society.

No matter how the "values" voters vote, abortion will still be available, for the poor it will be "back alley" and risky, for the rich it will be overseas. The goal is to make it rare by sensibly teaching prevention along with morals.

No matter how the "liberal" voters vote, prayer will still be said in school, especially before tests and sporting events.

No matter how the "liberal" voters vote, the second amendment will still allow lawful gun ownership.

So this time, Vote with your head, vote for the economy, vote for the environment, vote for jobs.

Vote Democratic 2008 -- don't let the corporations and their Republican stooges win again.

Carol, Long Valley NJ (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 2:06 PM)

well, it proves that Obama is a tuffer candidate than the media gives him credit for. He is not a liability. Even though Obama has had a difficult month, the candidate he endorsed won the election in a republican strong hold district. Even when down, Obama is an assest for the democrats. Go Obama

voter (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 2:07 PM)

Why has John McCain never been baptised by pastor Dan Yeary at North Phoenix Baptist Church in Arizona?

Does he go to church just so that he can say that he does? Obviously he doesn't take his own church's rights of passage seriously, and then uses his own equivilant of Rev.Wright....Pastor Hagee....in his campaign to act like he identifies with the Right Wing religous nutwings.

By the religous rights standards McCain fails to meet the criteria. By Independant standards he fails to meet the criteria, and certainly by Democrat standards, he's a complete failure. So the only people in the political spectrum that can support this guy with an ounce of integrity are the party-line voters. McCain is a "Republican", so they will vote for him.

If you watched him speak at the end of last week it was hillarious. Angry, getting lost in his speaches, saying we invaded Iraq because of oil, you name it, the guy came completely off the tracks this past week if anyone was paying attention.

Matt, Las Vegas, NV (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 2:10 PM)

It's also important to gauge Obama's liabilty in a Republican district dominated by blue-collar whites since this group of voters has given Obama the most trouble....

LA & MS are NOT the best measures b/c of the heavy black population in these states

Cowboy Jack (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 2:11 PM)

Obama is unelectable.

If you can't win in states like Ohio and Penn which are must wins for the Dems in November, you cannot win the Presidency. In Ohio and Penn, Obama outspent Hillary 4 to 1 yet Hillary won by 10 points. In today's polls in matchups with McCain in all of the must win states for the Dems in November, Hillary beats McCain by a substantial margin while Obama ties or loses.

Hillary Clinton has already proven she can win big in the big states that are the must wins for the Dems in November. It's that simple. Obama has failed to close the deal. Obama's caucus wins are meaningless in a general election. No one is really delusional enough to believe that the Dems would carry states like Utah in November. LOL

The Dems would be foolish to nominate Obama, he's too risky.

Hillary has already proven she's the strongest, most qualified, most electable candidate. Hillary has won big in ALL of the big, electoral rich states that Dems MUST win in November.

Hillary's detailed grasp of domestic and international issues is unmatched.

Hillary's stamina is unmatched.

Hillary will be an outstanding President.

*VOTE SMART! VOTE PATRIOTIC! VOTE HILLARY CLINTON!*

John (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 2:11 PM)

I just heard that McCain has opened up a Spanish language website for Hispanics to visit. Wasn't he one of the supporters of the English as the official language plan? Just another hypocritical lie from the ancient panderer. Why Hispanics would ever vote for him is beyond me since he's never done anything to support the Hispanic population.

Come on First Read let's hear something about this hypocritical lie of his.

Go Obama!

Eric, Salinas, CA (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 2:12 PM)

You close with asking what it means to the GOP - what about what it says about how the voters view a post Wright Obama?

Had it with MSNBClinton coverage (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 2:12 PM)

3 more supers today for Obama (not including the 3 from his home state) and of course no mention from you. What are you waiting for Hillery to get one so you you can lead the story with that.

jim (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 2:12 PM)

Didn't Bill Clinton say the Democrats couldn't win in these traditional Republican states?

Dan, Madison, WI (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 2:12 PM)

The GOP would have won that contest had they used the prospect of a Hillary Clinton Presidency instead of Obama. Her Photo carries a lot more negative weight than His. They should have used her while they had the chance.

grant (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 2:13 PM)

Well what will you evil pundits do if you are not able to disenfranchise the more ignorant of our electorate.

Maybe your chickens are coming home to roost!

The revolt will begin against the media, very soon...don't worry your pretty little heads about it. It will be just as stealth as your desire to destroy the country has been.

MR (Sent Monday, May 05, 2008 2:13 PM)

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