First thoughts: Beginning of the end?
Posted: Tuesday, May 06, 2008 9:11 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:
First Thoughts, Delegates
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The beginning of the end? Is today the last day on the campaign trail? Sure, there are six more contests beyond these two in Indiana and North Carolina. But after today, there will be more undeclared superdelegates (264) and more disputed delegates (366 in Florida and Michigan) for the campaigns to fight over than there will be delegates earned in the remaining primaries (217). Indeed, there's an argument to be made that after today, there are more delegates to be had INSIDE THE BELTWAY than out on the trail. So for all intents and purposes, today is the last shopping day of the primary season for the two Dems to impress the superdelegates on their issues. Can Obama hang tough with white voters, especially after the past two weeks? Can Clinton win any significant chunks of the black or youth vote? Those questions may not get answered fully today, but how each performs in their "road" game demographic tests will go a long way in pushing these supers in one direction or the other.
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VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the expected split decision in today's Indiana and North Carolina primaries.
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The basics: At stake are a total of 187 pledged delegates -- 115 in North Carolina and 72 in Indiana. Polls open in North Carolina at 6:30 am ET and close at 7:30 pm ET. In Indiana, most polls open at 6:00 am ET and close at 6:00 pm ET, but because some parts of the state are in the Central Time Zone, the official poll closing time is 7:00 pm ET. And just to give you a sense of where the candidates think they’re the strongest, Clinton holds her Election Night rally in Indianapolis, while Obama holds his in Raleigh, NC. Interestingly, however, Clinton seems to be on the upswing in North Carolina, and Obama seems on the upswing in Indiana. Yet both are likely to win on their "home" demographic courts. So what would the Vegas lines be today? Our guess: five points in each state, which should already be considered a perception victory for Clinton. But given the closet superdelegate support Obama seems to have, he's been given the benefit of the doubt with some if he simply wins North Carolina by, well, about five points. You'll know it will be a mediocre to bad night for Obama if his campaign has to talk about who won the most delegates tonight, rather than by how much they won each state.
*** How big is African-American turnout? There’s lots of chatter about the 40% of the early vote in North Carolina being African American. If that number somehow holds through Election Day voting, it would be an Obama blowout. But Obama folks caution that they saw this same phenomenon in Texas and found that they had simply moved Election Day voters to early voters. Other turnout numbers to watch for… Obama's performance among white voters in North Carolina. Will he get 30% or more? If so, he wins. If he drops below 30% of the white vote in that state, he'll be more reliant on a stronger African-American turnout. Meanwhile, in Indiana, don't underestimate the Chicago media market effect in the negative for Obama. Why? Local Chicago TV has been as obsessive -- if not more -- than the national media. No national media outlet, for instance, has asked their news helicopter to hover over Rev. Wright's house. How many Northwest Indiana households saw THAT?
*** Where we stand: Obama leads in pledged delegates per the NBC hard count (1,492 to 1,338), overall delegates (1,750 to 1,611), the popular vote (14,449,123 to 13,965,804), and the total number of contests won (30 to 15). Note: We’re not including Texas in this contest count, given that Clinton won the primary but Obama won the caucus and netted the most total Texas delegates.
*** A few other questions: When is John Edwards going to get his due? In all seriousness, haven't both candidates attempted to channel their best John Edwards in these last two months? That said, it’s also worth pointing out that he and his wife never endorsed, even though one of today’s contests is their home state. That either tells us about their true indecision or their secret fear that endorsing Clinton wouldn't be enough and would hurt Edwards' cred... If Hillary wins North Carolina, will Bill Clinton deserve all the credit? And does this mean the media will begin to scrutinize him again? Just what would his role in a Hillary White House be? And what about those potential conflicts of interests (Colombia, Giustra, etc.)? Our point: With the good of Bill Clinton finding his role and voice can come the bad once the spotlight comes back on… And what message does the National Right to Life's robo-call effort on behalf of Clinton send to undeclared superdelegates on the electability score. NRTL is one of the more aggressive third-party conservative groups in the biz, and they usually are helping to telegraph mainstream conservative opinion on who the opponent is or isn't.
*** And still more questions: When was the last time Obama introduced a policy initiative that forced a debate? Now, part of the reason is that Clinton has been much more adept at finding issues they disagree on, while she hugs anything he introduces proactively. Still, Obama hasn't driven the issue agenda since the days that Iraq was the No. 1 issue… And given that Indiana is an open primary, will we see some solid evidence that Republicans are trying to play games with the ongoing Democratic primary? If Clinton, according to the exit polls, gets more than 50% of GOP voters, will we know something is up? And can we stop calling the dispute over Florida/Michigan the "nuclear" option? When even the chair of the DNC says those two states' delegations will be seated, it's hard to call it some sort of nuclear option. Obama supporters believe it's the nuclear option, Clinton supporters believe it's part of the process. But so does Howard Dean.
*** Down the ballot: Clinton vs. Obama, however, isn’t the only race in Indiana and North Carolina that bears watching today. Both states are holding competitive gubernatorial primaries, and a large turnout by female voters in the Clinton-Obama race could end up benefiting the two women who are running for governor, the Cook Political Report’s Jennifer Duffy tells First Read. In Indiana, Jim Schellinger competes against Jill Long Thompson in the Democratic primary for the right to face incumbent GOP Gov. Mitch Daniels. Polls for this Dem race have been all over the place, Duffy says. In North Carolina, Lt. Gov Bev Perdue and state Treasurer Richard Moore -- both of whom have endorsed Obama -- square off to be the Democrats’ gubernatorial nominee, and Perdue appears to be the favorite. Perdue seems to have gotten more credit for endorsing Obama with black voters, even though Moore endorsed him first. As one consultant told us yesterday, this is NOT the year of the white guy, and we may see that in BOTH states today. That winner will face the victor of a crowded GOP field led by Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and state Sen. Fred Smith, but it’s possible that no Republican crosses the 40% threshold to avoid a run off. Just asking: How important is Clinton's candidacy to both women running in Indiana and North Carolina and would both be in a position of winning without her?
*** Judicial philosophy day: It’s probably not surprising that McCain picked this day -- primary day in Indiana and North Carolina -- to give a speech on his judicial philosophy in Winston-Salem, NC. The speech, according to excerpts released by the campaign, will certainly please social conservatives, and it also will raise this DNC talking point: that once again on an important issue, McCain -- he of the Gang of 14 -- has taken a position that doesn’t contrast much with Bush’s. "My two prospective opponents and I have very different ideas about the nature and proper exercise of judicial power. We would nominate judges of a different kind, a different caliber, a different understanding of judicial authority and its limits,” McCain is expected to say. “I have my own standards of judicial ability, experience, philosophy, and temperament. And Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito meet those standards in every respect. They would serve as the model for my own nominees if that responsibility falls to me.” At his speech, McCain will be joined by conservatives like Ted Olson and Fred Thompson.
*** On the trail: Clinton holds her Election Night rally in Indianapolis; McCain, after his speech on the judiciary, raises money in Greensboro, NC before heading to Michigan for a fundraiser; and Obama begins his day in Indianapolis before traveling to Raleigh, NC, where he holds his Election Night rally.
Countdown to West Virginia: 7 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 14 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 182 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 259 days
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