Exit polls: Those early voters

Posted: Tuesday, May 06, 2008 6:47 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell, Adam Verdugo and NBC's AnaMaria Arumi
Two things that stick out to us in the North Carolina primary: Early voting could play an important factor and, so far, voters seem to have made up their minds well before today's contest. Remember, early voting in North Carolina started on April 17th -- 20 days before today's primary. Democratic Party officials predicted about 400,000 people voted early, either in person or by mail, which means those votes were cast before the latest controversy with Obama's former pastor Reverend Wright.

Let's look at the key groups who decided to vote early or absentee in North Carolina. Over a third (37%) were white women, 30% were over age 60 and more than a third were college graduates. Only 7% were first-time voters. So far this season we've seen that Hillary Clinton has held an advantage among those voting early, but Barack Obama has made a major effort to get his supporters to cast ballots early in this go round.

Also, voters in the Tar Heel state made their decision very early. Only 19% decided on their candidate in the last week. An overwhelming number of voters -- 81% -- said they made their decision well before that.

NORTH CAROLINA:
WHITE WOMEN: 37%
OVER 60: 30%
COLLEGE GRADS: 39%
FIRST TIME VOTERS: 7%

Advocates of early voting argue that it makes it easier for people to vote -- in some states, 50% of the votes are cast in advance. But others question the practice, noting that early voters often make their decisions before they have a chance to see how the campaign unfolds. The news last week around both the Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s statements and Obama’s public divorce from him (and denouncement of his statements) might have played into some voters decisions.

The polls are still open, but turning now to voters who voted early in the day today, we asked them when they made up their minds.

TIME OF DECISION NC:
TODAY: 8%
LAST 3 DAYS: 6%
LAST WEEK: 5%
LAST MONTH: 20%
BEFORE THAT: 61%

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Comments

THis just in: Jeanette Council has endorsed Barack Obama.

The Cumberland County commissioner, who is a Democratic Party superdelegate, told the Fayetteville Observer that she was backing Obama.

"I would have no problem voting for either of the two," she said. "But of the two, I think Barack Obama is the better candidate."

Earlier, she told the newspaper that she was not sure if she would make a decision before Election Day

The announcement brings Obama's North Carolina superdelegate count to seven. Rival Hillary Clinton has two.

denise, tampa, fl (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 6:54 PM)

Let me guess, like 31 other contests, North Carolina won't count because it's for Obama.

Go figure!

Mister Anderson (The Matrix) (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 6:55 PM)

The exit polls are off by a bit if they think that 37% of early voters were white women. The actual figure is 33%:

http://ccpsblog.blogspot.com/2008/05/final-pre-election-analysis-of-north.html

Maryann, DC (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 6:57 PM)

Please don't scare me like that! I think I'M prepared for returns about 8:55, but you almost drove me to the privy!

Pulling for Obama '08 (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 6:58 PM)

Nice to see MSNBC is keeping the Airhead America staff employed. Birds of a feather . . . .

LT Williams, Holt, SC (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 6:59 PM)

Well, I guess it all depends on what percent the early votes contribute to the overall number.

tony smith, dc (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 7:00 PM)

The news will probably read: Clinton makes valiant comeback in North Carolina but loses.

The media is in love with Hillary right now. Every article is about her coming back although shes lost ground overall and especially in the Polls right before the primaries in Penn, TX, and Ohio.

But the media plays it like Hillary had the comeback win.

Andy Denver, Co (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 7:01 PM)

This just in: The North Carolina vote won't count. They broke a rule.

Dr. H. Dean (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 7:02 PM)

Why won't anchors call out the Hillary liars? Is it because they're not informed enough to do so?

Terry McCaullough just said Clinton came from 15 points back in Indiana. Where on earth does he get that ridiculous number?! That is a bald-faced lie to improve the perception of how she does tonight.

DO YOUR JOB, CHUCK.

Sam, Muncie, Ind. (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 7:03 PM)

Blacks in NC decided when Obama announced. A little bit of racism don't you know.

Junior Sample, Rolling Hills, NC (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 7:07 PM)

Any credibility MSNBC had, and I know it wasn't much, is now out the window. How can two screamers like Olbermann and Crissie host the return show? Fox doesn't have Hannity and O'Reilly hosting their show. CNN, by law, must have a 80% liberal viewpoint, so they have an excuse. But NBC, come on, this is joke right?

Harold Ross, Buffalo, NY (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 7:10 PM)

The media likes to keep bandying about the term "working class" voters but they never define it and they never show poll numbers. I don't see any numbers here about the mythical working class voters. Are the elderly, women or white voters working class? Either give a breakdown or forever ban that term from reporting and commentary.

nuanced (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 7:11 PM)

Now we got some guy from South Dakota, Daschle, who says Michigan and Florida votes don't count. Another piddley little state like South Dakota telling these two huge states they don't matter.

Preston Starr, Miami, Ohio (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 7:14 PM)

[[ "working class" voters but they never define it ]]

I can clear that up. Working class people are onese that work their butt off everyday, but have elitists like Obama call them stupid. A second definition is people that will never vote for Obama.

Hope this helps.

Sheri Toss, Tampa (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 7:18 PM)

Obama gets all the black vote(no surprise), and most college grads. History tells us that college grads rarely show up for general elections, so that is a BIG "?".
If you are a Democrat, better that you bet on known factors than the possibility of the unknown. There are rumors out there that Republicans are holding back more info about Obama and will add to the "October surprise" if he is the nominee.
Good luck to whoever the Dem nominee is, but I know that Hillary will fight, and Obama, well, we don't know.

Elia, NC (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 7:22 PM)

It's our choice make a change or our American problems will remain the same.

Leola Upland, California (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 7:33 PM)

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