Why Indiana has closed

Posted: Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:07 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: Democrats

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
At one point in the evening, Clinton held a double-digit lead in Indiana, but that was without Marion County where Indianapolis is. As the 170,000-plus votes in Marion county came trickling in, Clinton’s lead dropped and dropped and dropped -- to the point where now the New York senator’s lead stands at 4 percentage points or about 39,000 votes. Obama’s Marion advantage (67%-33%) won’t likely cut much more into the lead, and there are still portions of Clinton counties still out. But there is still the entire county of Lake (about 400,000 population), which contains Gary, Ind., a 100,000-person town in the Chicago media market with an 84% black population.

Clinton, however, has done very well, 58%-42%, in neighboring Porter County -- also in the Chicago media market. Porter is 95% white. Did the heavy local coverage of Wright have an effect here?

Also out, however, still is Monroe County where Bloomington is. Bloomington is home to Indiana University, somewhere that should be an Obama stronghold. There’s only 24% out in Monroe.

It’s not clear there are enough votes available for Obama to actually overtake Clinton, but it might be right around that Chuck Todd Vegas field goal. Any bets?

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Comments

There are a great many of us who highly respected Hillary Clinton before this election. Hopefully, we will again some day see a better side of her. Loosing sometimes has a way of bringing renewal.

Gregory Peek, Birmingham, Alabama (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:16 PM)

Yes Chuck, I bet Hillary's lead will decrease to 2 points.

Jon, TX (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:17 PM)

Oh my G-D. I would not count Obama out. It is still too close.

Is Obama to Indiana what the NY Giants were to Super Bowl XLII, ie., a last minute upset?

ET (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:17 PM)

Did you hear that great big SCREEECHING sound? It was either the sound of HRC's momentum shifting, or HRC herself looking at the results. Game over, Hill, beyaman and step aside.

Bill, CC, TX (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:18 PM)

Krista in IN - I've seen you post many times before. If you are reading, thank you and thank all of your neighbors so much for keeping this close. I love Kurt Vonnegut and Frank Lloyd Wright so your wonderful state will become my next vacation destination.

fortuna, Houston, TX (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:19 PM)

Will Scarborough call in sick tommorow?

twin (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:21 PM)

Paul Paulos (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:21 PM)

If you'd like a football metaphor Chuck...Indiana was Hillary's "Hail Mary" pass.
She's going to run for the extra point the 2 pointer...will she make it?
What a fun night ..though I hope this ends tomorrow as the SD's go over to Obama...

Goddesson, Chicago (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:22 PM)

Regardless, will someone check this ridiculousness and factor it in?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/06/exit-polls-limbaugh-effec_n_100488.html

Bonnie (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:22 PM)

I grew up in Gary - lived there almost half of my life.

There is no chance I will go to bed until Lake County posts their votes.

My money is on our next president: Barack Obama.

Susan in PA (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:22 PM)

Congratulations Barack Obama! Can you pull an upset in IN? Well, I'd say to come within 4 is a success!

Laffincrow (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:23 PM)

A 51-49ish Clinton "win," coupled with a double-digit Obama win in NC, is definitely a loss. Why did she lose? Probably that boneheaded, obviously pandering gas tax move.

Ralph in Centennial, Colorado (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:24 PM)

If Obama can pull it off I'll scream out from my window but sadly it doesn't look like that will happen.

Habib Khan, NYC, NY (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:25 PM)

Breaking news....

Bill and Hillary Clinton are officially changing their residence to Puerto Rico, and their name to Guillermo & Hildalgo, so they can win the primary there.
States no longer matter. It is only the Spanish vote that matters to pick the Presidential nominee! (Ickes and McAuliffe quickly change their names as well. Penn proposes a Puerto Rico Free Trade Agreement..PRFTA?)

IT IS OVER Ms. Pants-suits and PanderBear.
Someone call Bill in the Motel 6 in Nowheresville that he can come home now!

David Kolva, MD Oswego/Syracuse, NY (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:25 PM)

I have'nt watched Morning Joe in weeks, but I plan to have my coffee, and hot breakfast with him tommorow! We'll eat together. My eggs, and his crow should be one glorius dining experience.

Iv'e got a date with Joe (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:26 PM)

Please hurry and count the votes. America is waiting.

Gary B Alpharetta, GA (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:28 PM)

I'm sure we're going to hear talk from MSNBC about Clinton's inability to overtake Obama's advantage ... right??? Even with the terrible two weeks Obama had, she could't take much advantage (caused primarily because of the media obsession one bad week stretched into two which took up almost all of the campaign time for these two states).

Barbara, Houston (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:29 PM)

What's Hillary going to say tonight in Indiana??

Hey, Keith-How about "GOOD NIGHT and GOOD LUCK"?

Deborah Greenlawn, NY (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:31 PM)

If Hillary wants to be our nominee why can't SHE seal the deal?? How can someone have the last name Clinton and not have a decisive win in a non-black state "primary" like Indiana. This is HILLAR(y)ous. HA. I wonder how CNN is going to spend this. Thanks MSNBC for giving me objective new.

Terrell, Purdue IN (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:32 PM)

It seems as though Obama will be the clear winner tonight, and deservedly so. This thing is essentially over, but to me the biggest loser is MSNBC. Their hosts were nothing short of abysmal. CNN and FOXNews showed very balanced reporting, especially from the hosts who did not show many signs of favouritism, and seemed to be making a concerted effort not to favour one candidate over the other. MSNBC on the other hand has Angry Olderman and Tingly leg Matthews so far into Obama, you'd think, well, you make your own analogy from that. But those two have to be the worst team to lead any political coverage since the history of television. With FOX, you always knew they had a right slant to everything once it was left vs right. But MSNBC, along with NBC's Chuck Todd and Tim Russert have found everything in their negative campaign against Cinton, to knock anything she may have to say. When it ocmes to negative sniping, I think FOX needs to watch Olderman and Mytinglylegmatthews. They are the true masters of deceit in this whole mess. They make people believe they know all about politics and look what happens. No wonder their ratings suck. Matthews needs to wrap up his tent and get his Senate Campaign ready. Olderman can stay on MSNBC, just not NFL Sunday, or I'll watch other sports shows.
Where is Brokaw when you need him to be host for the entire evening.

JW, Minn, MN (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:32 PM)

Lake will flood-tsunami? Don't know.

Deborah Greenlawn, NY (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:33 PM)

What's going on in Lake County? Why 0% when all others have been in for some time?

HK, Bloomington, IN (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:40 PM)

Isn't it remarkable that even though the beloved ex-President of the United States worked feverishly throughout Indiana to gain votes for Hillary (which he was very successful, mind you) that Obama was still able to hold his own? Wow. That's strength. Isn't it obvious yet? America wants Obama. Hillary only received these votes because of the Presidential prestige.

Eliz, Dallas (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:40 PM)

Here's the barometer. While Hillary was speaking in
Indiana-take a look at Bill's face.
That says it all.

Deborah Greenlawn, NY (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:41 PM)

[ ...but it might be right around that Chuck Todd Vegas field goal. Any bets?]
--Sure, why not. Aside from the illegality (which has never stopped me before). I'll take a greater than a field goal victory for Clinton. For her victory to count, I feel she should have to beat Obama by a greater margin than the Giants beat the Pats.

Nicholas: Minnesota (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:41 PM)

I feel like I can breathe again. This country needs to move forward and Clinton, for all her efforts, just is not.

Thanks, MSNBC for up-to-the-minute coverage, and especially First Read for being there and interpreting it all and especially Chuck Todd for being Chuck Todd. Keith olbermann said it well, (paraphrasing) he's just there as filler until Chuck comes on. (But of course we love Keith, too.)

There will still be some blowback but it's finally over and we can move to November. Again, thanks to the entire MSNBC family of political information.

Kathy H. - Honolulu, HI (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:42 PM)

HRC is speaking and spinning to the end...can't expect any magnanimity from the Clintons.

ABC Stinks (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:42 PM)

And she's ripping off his 'it's YOUR campaign'
line. And still beggin' at 'Hillary dot com' for money when there's $109 million in her bank.
Uh-oh, she's mid-west Hillary now. Oh give it up.
Next, the tears again.
I wish Hillary were 'invisible'.

Deborah Greenlawn, NY (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:43 PM)

I bet that close is good enough! I'll take 4 points or less outcome in a state that demographically favors Senator Clinton any day of the week!

Obama '08/'12

Nashville_fan (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:44 PM)

Is she speaking now to pre-empt a, could it be,
not a squeaker, but a LOSS?

Deborah Greenlawn, NY (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:44 PM)

Lake County is waiting to release its results until they have finished counting over 11,000 absentee ballots.

jk, San Diego, CA (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:44 PM)

So Obama wins the states where better then a third of the Dem population is black. States like the Carolina's, Mississippi and Alabama. But then he loses states that look more like the cross section of America, states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and now Indiana. How do you lose a state that's in your own backyard? Obama was winning those kind of states a couple of months ago (Iowa + Wisconsin). Now that everyone knows him better, he, unlike Hillary, is not getting that cross section of votes he needs to win this fall. Very disturbing.

Jerry Rossum, Hattisburg, MS (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:47 PM)

Clinton lost my home Allen County by 10 points among a largely white, UMC Republican stronghold. Let's hope she loses IN in total and is kicked out of the race by those same SDs she wants to swing her way. I've heard enough of her lies.

Mark in IN (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:47 PM)

Hillary just started her speech, in which she claimed victory in Indiana and said "on we march to the White House, but I'll need your help so please go to hillaryclinton.com". Wow. Most of us are still waiting for the last 17% of the votes to be counted. I do think it's likely that she will win - narrowly - in Indiana but I think the night overall was a major loss for her.

Ann Pittsburgh PA (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:49 PM)

With exit pollers from Mississippi to Pa and now ostensibly to Indiana reporting that many blacks exiting their precincts knew virtually nothing about the platform or Obama hiself except his race, doesn't it seem a serious problem to an informed electorate form of Democracy to have 92 % of blacks in Indiana and 90 % in N. Carolina voting for Obama, many of those likely knowing so little abouth him ? **************************************************
Paul, you write your argument as if the entire population of blacks that voted for Barack dont know him (see, you refer to "many" as if that is truly a quantitative measure) . Sure there are some voting for him for his race, but there are many more that are voting for the man and the type of politics he represents. Also, he's been a legislator for a long time. Lastly, like Dave Chapelle, black people have known about Barack Obama long before white people ever heard of him. He's in rap songs, and has been on the cover of black magazines etc. The black population is very familiar with the Senator from Chi-town.

B, New Jersey (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:49 PM)

Remember election 2000 and the state of Florida when most black votes mysteriously 'disappeared'.

Michael, Salisbury, NC (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:49 PM)

The "Chicago Shuffle" is going on in Lake county Indiana. Watch for more votes in the total then the number of people that voted. Happens all the time in Chicago. Guess which way the vote will go.

Hal Sutton, Hammond, IN (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:49 PM)

My math says he needs to win Lake County 61-39 (assuming turnout matches 2004 primary turnout, proportionally, and other counties continue to break proportionally, and Hillary wins Wayne 2-1). Anybody have ideas on the likelihood of that? Off the top of my head, it looks like a coin toss to me.

inonit (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:51 PM)

when Obama made his speech the people standing behind him holding them little blue signs looked like they were in a Trance. "hillary's people are happy and calling out her name." OBAMAS'S PEOPLE LOOKED LIKE ZOOMBIES! `there is something wrong there.

ge``pa (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:51 PM)

Lake county is waiting to see how many fake ballots they need to insert in the pile so Obama wins Indiana. Don't want to make it too obvious, but what is needed is needed. That's why Obama has his spin teams at the ready (ChiTrib, NYTs, MSNBC, CNN, etc.).

Johnson Palllett, Evanston IL (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:52 PM)

Why is it always the minority precints with the voting machine problems, voter roll problems, and slow counts and vote reporting? Makes you wonder if any elections are not manipulated to some extent. And why don't the people who tamper with the elections ever go to jail?

nuanced (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:53 PM)

Deborah from NY: my sentiments exactly. Bill looks tired and sad!!!

LB, VA (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:53 PM)

Did you hear that great big SLAMMING sound? It was either the door closing on HRC's chances, or the checkbooks of her supporters. Was her speech pre-recorded, because it sure didn't seem to know what was happening in the returns.

Bill, CC, TX (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:54 PM)

Kentucky and West Virginia won't mean as much as she thinks it will. And maybe she should have made the money plea at the end. It wasn't about his money or outspending here. It was about how smartly he ran his campaign and got people out to vote for her.

Jo Jo (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:54 PM)

I have to put two questions here.

First, Hillary's from INDIANA now? Really...I'm sure she's from W. Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana and Puerto Rico too...this is ridiculous.

Second, BURMA...REALLY...BURMA!! I'd expect that from our current commander in (insert whatever you want here), but if you looked at ANY paper today you'd have to realize that it's MYANMAR.

Mat, Albuquerque, NM (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:56 PM)

Senator Clinton is right now asking you to send her your hard earned money to pay her campaign debts (and pay Mark Penn and Harold Ickes). I know, I cannot help it -- I feel sorry for her too. But, she is a very rich woman. Think first about your own future.

The Democratic Party will come together and the GOP needs to start trying to figure out how to go back to the ideals that once made them an important balance in America's great political system.

Senator Obama will be the 44th President of the United States and I want to give a big shout out to North Carolina tar heels and Indiana Hoosiers!

Yes we can, you can believe it America -- it is for real!

Come join the growing movement -- the most effective lobbying force of ordinary Americans seeking to do extraordinary things in the History of this Great Country!

http://www.barackobama.com/index.php

(P.S. Another shout out to first read -- I don't always agree with you, but you are generally right on the news. And sometimes I do get spun myself by internet rumors).

Kim, Pasadena, CA (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:56 PM)

Johnson Palllett, Evanston IL (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 10:57 PM)

At his WEAKEST he blew her out in NC by more than
she did in her perfect fit PA; squeaker, or not at all for her, maybe, in IN. That's significant.

Don't trust anyone who is nice to you when they are
losing.

Deborah Greenlawn, NY (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 11:08 PM)

Why are you RACISTS just not ging to face the music? Don't worry, there's another great white hope that you can hope for in November. "Large African American population?" Please!! If we were 79%, that would be LARGE. Then you really would be afraid! He's the 1st of 400 years damn!

Wiggz, Alex, VA (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 11:09 PM)

obama may win the nomination but he can't win the general election. His choice of associations with Rev. Wright, Ayers, Auchi, Rezko, Sinclair, etc... calls into question his judgement. there is no perfect candidate but obama is the weakest candidate overall. my bet is on mccain

MSN (Sent Tuesday, May 06, 2008 11:10 PM)

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